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741. Russia’s War in Ukraine: WMD Issues

Author:
Richard Weitz
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In the eighth brief of our “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series, Hudson Institute’s Richard Weitz examines issues related to weapons of mass destruction. Throughout the war, Russia has regularly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and against Western states. Analysts are divided on the credibility of these threats and on the risk that the war in Ukraine may escalate to the nuclear level, but Russia’s careless rhetoric is at least likely to set back prospects for nuclear arms control and increase the incentives for nuclear proliferation. While the nuclear taboo has remained unbroken, Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles and its readiness to disrupt civil nuclear operations may have created precedents with huge future consequences. Although Russia’s hypersonic missile attacks—a world first—have not been game-changing, they have sent important signals and, no doubt, advanced Russia’s quest to operationalise these weapons. Of more immediate concern have been Russia’s readiness to ignore basic safety protocols at Chornobyl and its recklessness in conducting offensive military operations near the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Meanwhile, its disinformation about Ukraine’s chemical and biological capacity has raised the spectre of the use of chemical or biological agents in a war in Europe. Weitz concludes that the non-use of weapons of mass destruction in the Ukraine War has contributed to emboldening Western states in their supply of advanced weapon systems to Ukraine.
Topic:
Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, Hypersonic Weapons, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

742. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Russia’s Propaganda War

Author:
Igor Gretskiy
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The ninth Brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns Russia’s propaganda war. Igor Gretskiy, a Research Fellow of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute at the ICDS, examines key elements of Russia’s propaganda and disinformation that were crucial in the years long preparation of the invasion of Ukraine. He describes how the Kremlin’s official narratives were used to pave the way for Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, and how Russia’s propaganda has changed as the war has progressed. He states that the Kremlin began to prepare the Russian public for the invasion of Ukraine after the Biden-Putin summit in Geneva on the 30th of June 2021. He analyses Moscow’s language of war and concludes that Soviet-style narratives about Nazism and Western anti-Russian conspiracies became the main premises of the propaganda offensive. He also concludes that Russia’s president most likely began to plot the outright aggression after his re-election in 2018. Gretskiy further states that the Russian mainstream media failed to provoke the populations and local authorities in eastern Ukraine into mass defections to the Russian side and lost the battle for the Ukrainians’ hearts and minds. It rather intensified the Russian domestic neo-imperial narrative.
Topic:
Propaganda, Disinformation, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

743. Baltic States’ Expectations Regarding Germany’s Role in Baltic Security

Author:
Toms Rostoks
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
ICDS is introducing a series of policy briefs “Germany and the Security of the Baltic States”. In the first brief, introducing the series, Toms Rostoks sets out in broad terms what Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would like Germany to contribute to Baltic security and assesses the prospects for achieving this. Germany plays a major role in the security of the Baltic region and, especially, of the Baltic states. Although the Baltic states would favour Germany taking an even more prominent role, there are obstacles to this due to its very different views on issues such as military power, Russia and European defence integration. Germany’s military power is, by policy choice, limited. Its willingness to use that power, even for the purposes of deterring Russia, is still more limited. More broadly, Germany seems to assume that the worst excesses of Russia’s behaviour can be tamed through dialogue and interdependence. European defence cooperation, however, offers an opportunity for Germany to build a stronger military without raising concerns about its actions. In the long term, the Baltic states expect Germany to play a robust role in the region and to more efficiently counter Russia’s policy, but in the short-term their objective would be to ensure that Germany’s commitments to their security do not decrease.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Lithuania, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

744. Baltic Perspectives on Germany’s Role in NATO

Author:
Justinas Juozaitis
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In the second brief in our “Germany and the Security of the Baltic States” series, Justinas Juozaitis considers Germany’s contribution to NATO from a Baltic perspective and looks at what might change under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Germany’s contribution to NATO’s collective defence and deterrence, including in the Baltic region, is substantial, but does not match what might be expected given its economic strength. The Bundeswehr already struggles to meet its commitments to the Alliance and recent increases in the defence budget have not translated into major improvements in capability. Germany will most likely not meet in full the promises it has made to enhancing collective defence. Even then, the new government will have to face decisions that will be unpopular with the public, and within their own coalition. Germany’s continued political support for deterrence in the Baltic region will likely continue, but its own military contribution will probably be smaller than promised.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Economy, Regional Integration, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Baltic States

745. The Social Side of Climate Change Adaptation: Reducing Conflict Risk

Author:
Farah Hegazi and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as underdevelopment, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable development and climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately mitigate climate-related security risks are often overlooked. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating climate change adaptation and preventing and resolving natural resource-related communal conflict in developing countries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.
Topic:
Climate Change, Conflict, Risk, Social Capital, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

746. Post-shipment On-site Inspections and Stockpile Management Assistance: Bridging Gaps

Author:
Giovanna Maletta and Mike Lewis
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Post-shipment on-site inspections and international assistance in physical security and stockpile management (PSSM) have different scopes and objectives. On-site inspections allow exporting states to check exported military materiel to ensure that the importer is complying with its commitments, while PSSM assistance aims to improve states’ weapons and ammunition management systems. However, both instruments allow foreign specialists to visit a state’s weapons and ammunition storage facilities and enable information gathering to assess their integrity and identify possible diversion risks. This SIPRI Policy Brief highlights how building informal linkages between these instruments, especially with regard to states and actors that conduct inspections and are involved in funding or implementing PSSM assistance, could contribute towards establishing more comprehensive forms of post-shipment cooperation. In addition, applying lessons learned from PSSM assistance in terms of gaining access to states’ facilities, cooperating with the beneficiary importing states, and identifying limitations and opportunities associated with the use of tracking technologies could help to address some of the challenges encountered when conducting on-site inspections. PSSM assistance programmes could also include modules to raise awareness about on-site inspections and be a source of expertise that could assist states when implementing these controls.
Topic:
Security, Weapons, Peace, and Ammunition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

747. China’s Evolving Approach to Foreign Aid

Author:
Jingdong Yuan, Abhishek Andasu, and Xuwan Ouyang
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
China’s role in foreign aid and, more broadly, in development cooperation on the global stage has grown significantly since it began seven decades ago. Particularly in recent years, through such platforms as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s profile and engagement in global governance in foreign aid and related areas have been further enhanced. China’s ambition is to take a more proactive approach in foreign aid and move towards a model of international development cooperation by linking with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and by including the BRI as a major platform to achieve key development goals. This paper provides a timely analysis of the evolution of China’s foreign aid policy in the past seven decades with a particular focus on the developments since 2000. It discusses China’s development finance to Africa and the major sectors receiving Chinese aid. It also analyses recent trends of Chinese foreign aid and identifies some of the challenges that China faces as it becomes a major player in international development financing.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Infrastructure, Sustainable Development Goals, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

748. Post-shipment On-site Inspections: Multilateral Steps for Debating and Enabling Their Adoption and Use

Author:
Giovanna Maletta, Mark Bromley, and Lauriane Héau
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Among the key tools that states that export arms and military equipment can adopt to help to prevent and mitigate the diversion of military materiel are post-shipment on-site inspections. These inspections involve the exporting state requiring and conducting physical checks on previously authorized and transferred military materiel on the territory of the importing state. In the past decade a growing number of states have adopted and implemented this policy tool. In addition, some multilateral bodies and instruments—including forums connected to the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty, the European Union and the United Nations—have been used to exchange views on the use of post-shipment on-site inspections and to develop related good practice guidelines. The wider use of post-shipment on-site inspections could help to prevent diversion of military materiel and reduce the human suffering that this generates, but several barriers and challenges appear to be blocking their broader adoption. This SIPRI Policy Paper reviews these barriers and challenges, and summarizes the steps that have been taken at the national level to address them. The paper then examines the steps that have been taken and that could be taken at the multilateral level to expand discussion about post-shipment on-site inspections and help to support those states that are considering adopting this policy tool. For each step, the policy paper presents a series of recommendations that could be taken forward by states, research institutes, or the executives or secretariats of relevant multilateral instruments or bodies.
Topic:
Weapons, Multilateralism, Exports, and Inspection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

749. Liberty’s Doom? Artificial Intelligence in Middle Eastern Security

Author:
Kristina Kausch
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The surge of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled technologies has triggered global debates on the potential risks and opportunities of the use of these technologies to enhance societies’ prosperity, security and well-being while ensuring human control and safeguarding fundamental rights. In the area of security, AI has the potential of making key sectors, such as predictive policing, counter-terrorism or border management more efficient, just and humane. At the same time, the risks inherent to AI in the security sector have raised numerous concerns regarding surveillance and data protection, human rights and civil liberties, or the prospect of an arms race in autonomous weapons systems, which have overshadowed debates on opportunities. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents particular challenges in this equation. On the one hand, the region’s myriad security challenges could greatly benefit from a booster in security-related problem-solving efficiency. On the other, ethical and legal considerations gain particular weight in a region largely governed by authoritarian rulers and with a weak rule of law, as these conditions prevent thorough AI governance and the necessary checks and balances to avoid authoritarian abuse of the ample opportunities presented by AI. This collection attempts to approach the questions and dilemmas raised by AI in Middle Eastern security through a European policy lens. Zooming in on AI in border management, surveillance, defence and regulation, exploring both risks and opportunities of this set of technologies for the fragile security of the MENA region, each chapter draws conclusions for future European Union (EU) policy and cooperation with MENA partners on AI.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Middle East

750. Social Protection Reforms in the MENA Region: Possibilities and Challenges

Author:
Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world in 2020 revealed a huge gap in access to public services, equality and government responsiveness to the consequences of the pandemic. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the COVID-19 crisis showed the inadequacy of the public institutions and their abilities to protect the poor, and ensure that populations’ needs are met, especially informal workers, women, children and the elderly. The social protection systems in the MENA countries are relatively weak, facing challenges or disfunctions through many ad-hoc programmes, making it difficult to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. This is particularly observed in countries facing a pre- COVID-19 economic crisis, such as Lebanon. There is clear evidence that social protection systems have a positive impact on the lives of the population in times of crisis. They improve access to health and education, and increase economic security. Social protection systems work during times of crisis and times of stability, but they are strategic tools that show that states have the capacity to design and deploy policy tools to protect people. In divided societies, inequalities are usually wider and, therefore, a comprehensive social protection system with a high rate of coverage is needed. In this Policy Study, we present four chapters, examining the state-of-the-art of social protection systems in the MENA region, challenges, and potential opportunities that government, local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and the European Union (EU) could take to assist in establishing comprehensive social protection systems. The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to learn and identify where the gaps are and what needs to be done by formal and informal institutions in the MENA region to reform and re-engineer their social protection systems with help from the EU and its institutions. COVID-19 arrived in the MENA region during an economic crisis in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, marked by huge inequalities, vulnerabilities with increasing poverty and low trust in governments and their performance. Lockdown, closure and physical distancing have also led to loss of jobs and income for millions of people, mainly informal workers, and businesses. The vulnerable groups who are already living in economic distress, such as informal workers, youth, women and the elderly, are the most affected parts of the population. They are the most vulnerable to loss of income and unemployment. This study highlights that MENA states lack comprehensive and effective social protection systems. In many MENA countries, ad-hoc programmes substitute a comprehensive social protection system. The study examines the rural-urban and socioeconomic group gaps in accessing services, such as health and education, and economic opportunities. It shows that the historic gap between urban-rural and socioeconomic groups' ability to access the same services and opportunities compared to other groups affected the ability of those groups to cope with the pandemic, exposing them to more vulnerability. The study examines the policy response of the MENA governments to the pandemic, namely in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco – four countries that have been particularly challenged by COVID-19. It identifies several gaps and op- portunities to develop the social protection system. The study examines cash- based programmes, access to public health, informal workers, women’s protection, digitalisation of social protection systems, and education, to some extent. It focuses on youth, women, the elderly, disabled persons and children as the most vulnerable groups in the region. It identifies that coordination between formal in- stitutions and INGOs needs to be formalised, informal workers need to be included in the social protection system, women and the elderly should be prioritised, and informal social protection mechanisms could be supported through livelihood activities, but is not seen as a major part of any social protection mechanism. It finally highlights the need for digitalisation of reformed social protection systems or strategies.
Topic:
Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

751. Times they are A-changin’: Africa at the Centre Stage of the new (II) Liberal World Order

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Amid a renewed Global Power competition, Africa’s abundance of natural resources, its exponential demographic development, and the current expansion of militant Islamist groups in the region, increases its strategic importance and pushes the continent to the center stage of international relations. This brief explores Africa’s position in this changing global context and examines major actors’ presence in, and stance towards, Africa on the global arena. It does this while arguing that as the competition for influence and access to resources in Africa is intensified, Western actors need to become clearer about their interests, avoid ill-perceived imposition of conditionalities – unless they are willing to risk access and follow them through – and adopt a case-by case approach to states on a continent as diverse as Africa.
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, Liberal Order, and World System
Political Geography:
Africa

752. Al-Shabab in Mozambique: Taking Stock of an Insurgency Under Cover

Author:
Tom Van Rentergem
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Since the first attack in October 2017, Mozambique has been confronted with an extremist insurgency called Ansar Al-Sunna Wa Jamma (ASWJ), also known as Al-Shabab (not to be confused with Al-Shabab in Somalia). The alleged Jihadists targeted the Mozambican coastline and have carried out indiscriminate attacks in the Northern province of Cabo Delgado, with the capture of coastal towns Mocimboa Da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021 being important markers for the insurgents. The intense five-year conflict has resulted in 4,000 people dead and 800,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), roughly half of the province. The identity of the insurgents has become subject for debate among policy makers and researchers, raising questions about whether the group is primarily a local insurgency or whether there are tangible links to Jihadism in other areas of Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

753. Protecting Civilians From Those Who Should Protect Them

Author:
Delina Goxho
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
As violent attacks targeting civilians in the Sahel region of West Africa are mounting, allegations of abuses perpetrated by Sahelian armed forces share the news with attacks committed by non-state armed groups. This brief analyses the main shortcomings within the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with regard to ensuring meaningful Protection of Civilians (PoC) from their own security and defence forces. It finds that formal, structural measures to address state security forces’ abuse of civilians is lacking in all three states, although some promising initiatives to build trust between security forces and civilians have been held on a local level. On a regional level, the OHCHR-mandated Human Rights Compliance Framework, which has partially been adopted by regional force Force Conjointe – G5 Sahel (FC-G5S), represents an example of a mechanism that could ensure better protection of civilians both for the region, and on a national level. However, the advent of Russian paramilitary group Wagner in Mali and the most recent massacre of civilians in Moura is challenging all optimistic forecasting.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Africa

754. Who’s Been Making “African Solutions”? Mapping Membership Patterns in the African Union’s Peace and Security Council

Author:
Nina Wilen and Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This year marks the 20th anniversary since the establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union, the AU’s principal decision-making body for promoting peace, security, and stability in Africa. This brief examines the patterns and trends that have emerged during the past two decades of PSC elections and finds that African governments persistently elected autocrats and states experiencing violent conflict to serve on the PSC, thus undermining the AU’s principles. This pattern risks skewing PSC decision-making in unhelpful ways, undermining effective crisis management, and making it difficult to uphold the AU’s stated norms and principles.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Africa Union
Political Geography:
Africa

755. Attracting and retaining talents in the EU What role can the EU play in ensuring a sustainable and competitive ecosystem for labour migration?

Author:
Marcel Muraille
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
When the European Commission unveiled its New Pact on Migration and Asylum in September 2020, one of its most decried shortcomings was the lack of specific initiative to develop legal avenues of arrival in the EU, especially in the area of labour migration. On 27 April 2022, the Commission presented a new package of initiatives which aims at both reducing irregular immigration and addressing labour shortages by simplifying aspects of the legal routes and stays into the EU, and proposed a number of steps to operationalise the Talent Partnerships, a unique framework to stimulate mutually beneficial international mobility and to match labour market demands and skills needs between Member States and third countries. The EU Talent Partnerships will build on previous experiences and lessons learnt from a handful of EU-funded pilot projects on labour mobility that were launched following the adoption of the Joint Valletta Action Plan in 2015. While these pilot projects have offered an opportunity to experiment with different options on how to meet labour market demands in the EU, they have only achieved relative success due to the difficulty of mobilising the private sector and, more generally, the competitiveness of EU labour markets. Despite its fragmented competences on labour migration, the EU still has room to play to increase the attractiveness of its Member States’ labour markets and to facilitate the involvement of the private sector in recruiting candidates internationally. This policy brief seeks to provide insights into the role of the EU to improve private sector engagement and develop a sustainable and competitive ecosystem for future labour mobility schemes.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, Labor Issues, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

756. Europe’s Energy and Resource Challenge The Arctic Is Part of the Solution

Author:
Marie-Anne Coninsx and Karen van Loon
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The EU’s increased climate ambitions require unprecedented growth in renewable energy and a diversified supply of critical raw materials. Building long-term partnerships and investing in innovation will be vital to pave the way for a clean and secure energy future. With energy being used as a prominent geopolitical weapon and energy prices soaring, the need for enhanced energy security and reliable resource suppliers is essential. The EU has realized it must reduce its natural resources’ dependence to ensure its prosperity, safeguard its interests, and reinforce its strategic autonomy. Especially the European Arctic region should be taken into account when considering the role it can play as a provider of renewable energy, sustainable development, and a reliable supplier of critical raw materials. Despite the specific challenges and costs associated with its cold and vulnerable climate, the region has certain advantages over parts of the world where political instability or low environmental standards are problematic. With its available resources, expertise, and technological innovations, the Arctic, which is often called an innovative testbed and a high-tech knowledge hub, can be instrumental for the EU to realize its Green Deal objectives, end its dependence on fossil fuels, strengthen its autonomy, and ensure its prosperity.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Arctic

757. Stabilizing the European Continent Reflections on the Future of EU Enlargement

Author:
Jean De Ruyt
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Since the decision to accept Croatia as a candidate member in 2011, the debate in the European Union about its enlargement has been rather subdued. But in 2022, after the bloody invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, the new European security architecture that the EU (and NATO) tried to build after the end of the cold war has been profoundly shaken. We thought we could manage our ambiguous relationship with Russia and the European members of the ex-Soviet Union through dialogue and economic partnerships. We underestimated the urgency of stabilizing the Western Balkans through EU accession. After membership was offered to Croatia, gestures have been made – more bureaucratic than political – to negotiate the accession of other Western Balkan countries. But ‘enlargement fatigue’ fast developed – ignoring the fact that Russia and China were growing as non-democratic competitors and that Turkey was drifting out of the Western values system. Time has come now to redraw the map. The EU, NATO and the G7 reacted to the Russian aggression in Ukraine with a spectacular show of unity. In the European Council of June 24, 2022, candidate status has been offered to Ukraine and Moldova as well as a membership perspective to Georgia, and a meeting with the leaders of all Balkan countries has revived their hope for a reinvigoration of their own accession. Even if the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, it is time to prepare public opinion in the EU to this new approach to enlargement policy – starting with the fulfilment of the promises we made to the Western Balkans countries as early as in 2003 at the Thessaloniki summit. Looking also where the enlargement of the EU should end, in order to restore as best as possible ‘stability’ on the continent, the aim of the European project from the start. The basic premise that has to be kept in mind from the outset, is that the launching of the European community, its transformation into a Union, and its step by step enlargement, contrary to what Vladimir Putin pretends, has nothing to do with imperialism – nor a secret American plot to prolong or revive the cold war. It aims only at reinforcing the stability of the continent. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate this premise through the history of EU enlargement, and to look at how future steps in this direction could make this happen.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

758. Beyond the Brussels Effect: Supporting the International Case for a Value-based Digital Market

Author:
Susanna M. Sprague
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Building a strong European Single Market represents a major effort and challenge to the European Union. It must encompass and respond to the dramatic ways in which digital technologies are changing our businesses, societies, and behaviors. The EU is not alone in its need to grapple with issues such as privacy, misinformation, consumer protection, and anti-competitive practices online while protecting fundamental rights. However, the EU also has an important and unique position as a major market, with many international partners. It is determined to ensure its economy will be based on its values as reflected in its laws.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Europe

759. Turkish Foreign Policy and the EU An Everlasting Candidate Between Delusion and Realities

Author:
Jean-Francois Drevet
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The relationship between Turkey and the European Union has never been easy. It is now affected by the activism of Ankara’s foreign policy, conducted in disregard of international law. Turkey remains, however, an important partner for the EU, as it is still officially a candidate for membership (since 1987) and in the Customs Union (since 1995). It impacts the EU, both in its internal (immigration, trade, other common policies) and external policies (through its gunboat diplomacy against two Member States (Greece and Cyprus) and countries eligible to the European Neighbourhood Policy). Moreover, the impact of the war in Ukraine will affect relations between Brussels and Ankara. In the face of Turkish activism, the EU lacks the capacity to anticipate and react, a problem that concerns not only its relations with Turkey, but its overall neighbourhood and association relations with its periphery. In the framework of the work on the neighbourhoods of the European Union (EU) carried out by the Institute for European Studies of the University of Saint-Louis and following its Annual Conference, with the aim of contributing to a better account of the Union’s relations with its periphery, the working group “Turkey” presents its elements of analysis in the run-up to 2023, which will be marked both by the centenary of the Republic and by long-awaited elections. Although much of this work was done before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine (24 February 2022), it has lost none of its relevance. One might even think that a stronger EU attitude towards Turkey in 2018-2020 might have made the Kremlin think twice. Faced with Turkish bellicosity in the eastern Mediterranean, the weakness of European reactions may have convinced Moscow that it could act with impunity against a country that is a member of neither the EU nor NATO.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

760. European Council Conclusions

Author:
Jim Cloos
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Ever since its creation in 1974, the European Council has dominated the EU agenda, even though at first lacking any legal status and devoid of formal decision-making powers. EUCO meetings elicit huge media interest. Hundreds of journalists cover every summit. Following those meetings is the best way to understand what goes on in the EU and where it is headed. That is why it is worth looking more in detail at how the EUCO expresses itself, namely via its conclusions. Those conclusions are heard because they emanate from the most powerful representatives of the 27 Member States and the President of the European Commission. They take on a life of their own. The Lisbon treaty stipulates in Article 15 (1) that the EUCO “shall provide the Union with the necessary impetus for its development and shall define the general political directions and priorities thereof. It shall not exercise legislative functions.” This loosely worded definition leaves a margin of maneuver for the EUCO. It caters for what the EUCO has done since its inception: agreeing on major decisions shaping the future of the EU, including treaty changes (Article 48 TEU) and conditions of eligibility for countries wanting to join the EU (Article 49 TEU); negotiating the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) packages; setting out political positions on key policies; tasking the Council and other institutions to progress with work on given files; commenting on major political developments outside the EU; reacting to acute crises and setting the framework for handling them.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Europe