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Begin New Search Topic Economics Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 5 Years

181. Should We Worry About Corporate Leverage?

Author:
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
There has been a large increase in corporate leverage in many countries since the early 2000s. Figure 1 plots corporate debt to GDP since 2002 for different groups of countries. With the exception of the U.S., both advanced economies and emerging markets have corporate debt exceeding GDP since 2005. U.S. corporate debt is also on an increasing trend. The fastest growth in corporate debt has been observed in emerging markets. A closer look will reveal that China and other fast growing emerging countries in Asia drive most of the increase in corporate debt for the emerging markets.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Regulation, Multinational Corporations, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

182. Counting the Cost of Financial Warfare: Recalibrating Sanctions Policy to Preserve U.S. Financial Hegemony

Author:
Enea Gjoza
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The American economy, dollar, and banking system create unparalleled power for the U.S. in the global financial system. This power provides disproportionate influence over the world’s key economic and financial institutions, regulatory authority over major foreign companies and banks, and allows borrowing on favorable terms and in dollars, enabling long-term deficit spending.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Sanctions, Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

183. Angola under Joao Lourenço: Who Are the New Players of MPLA State?

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In 2017, the coming to power of João Lourenço put an end to nearly four decades of rule by the former head of state, José Eduardo Dos Santos. João Lourenço’s first objective was to strengthen his authority by appointing people close to him and cadres from the old regime, who had professed loyalty to him, to high office. The speed of the takeover of all the decision-making centers – army, intelligence services, state-owned companies, oil industry and above all the MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) party-state – by the new “Comrade Number One” surprised the leaders of the Dos Santos era, some of whom were abruptly dismissed or even sentenced to prison. Now firmly established in Angola’s command centers, João Lourenço is however facing a serious economic crisis, the most worrying for the country since the end of the civil war in 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Angola

184. Economic Empowerment to Address Gender-Based Violence

Author:
SVRI
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:
Poverty is a risk factor associated with gender-based violence; it also often intersects with and reinforces gender inequality. Various microfinance and other economic empowerment approaches have been implemented to try to address this intersection.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Microcredit
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, Egypt, and Global Focus

185. Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The ailing Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, now seventy-nine years old, has no children and no announced successor, with only an ambiguous mechanism in place for the family council to choose one. This study considers the most likely candidates to succeed the sultan, Oman’s domestic economic challenges, and whether the country’s neutral foreign policy can survive Qaboos’s passing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Domestic Politics, and Succession
Political Geography:
Middle East, Oman, and Gulf Nations

186. Assessment of the Economic Costs of Electrical Power Outages in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Electricity access has improved significantly since introduction of the National Energy Policy of 2003. However, challenges in electricity supply still exist due to the frequency of interruptions, which has resulted in harsh penalties and costs to the economy. In 2016, power outages cost Swaziland E700 million in nominal monetary terms, representing 1.67% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If not addressed, the problems with the electricity sector will severely undermine the government’s effort to improve the development of the country. In essence, the benefits of increased access to the electricity grid will not be realised if power supply is as unreliable as it currently is. Considerable effort should be made to ensure that the country’s electricity supply system is stable and uninterrupted. Hence, in order to achieve this, there is need for policy attention towards improving the energy sector through investments in electricity generation using renewable energy sources, expediting the promotion of decentralised electricity generation to vulnerable areas, and setting stringent standards for the generation and distribution of electricity.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

187. Quantifying the Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The size of the shadow economy has been declining at a slow rate over the past 16 years in Swaziland. The size of the shadow economy was found to be 37.4 % in 2016. This was equivalent to E20.5 billion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016. The key drives of the shadow economy in Swaziland were found to be the tax burden (direct and indirect taxation), self-employment, the importance of the agricultural sector and the institutional quality of governance institutions. For the country to fast tract its developmental agenda (Vision 2022), it is important for the country to enact policies that will harness and transition the shadow economy into the mainstream economy by targeting the drivers of the shadow economy locally.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and GDP
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

188. The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The 2015/16 El Niño drought proved to be the worst drought Swaziland has experienced since 1992. In total nominal monetary terms, the drought cost Swaziland minimally E3.843 billion, representing a 7.01% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016 or 18.58% of government expenditure in 2016. Despite the significant drought losses, the country has on paper a solid Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy (2010). However, even with extensive experience from past droughts in 2009/10, 2007, 2001, and 1992, the country is still struggling to become drought proof. The reason Swaziland is so affected by drought is that the country’s economic backbone rests on agriculture. The inherent vulnerability to drought is that the food production system in the country is still highly dependent on direct rainfall. Due to chronic drought-like conditions in the Shiselweni and Lubombo regions, households in these regions are now discouraged from participating in agriculture. To illustrate, an assessment of agricultural assets in households reveals that household participation in agriculture is less than 30%, with a measly national average of 25.3%. As a result, the country is now too dependent on the international, basically South African, market for its basic food needs. The implication is that as droughts become more frequent, their impact on the country will be detrimental to the economy, particularly on rural livelihoods.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Disasters, Socioeconomics, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

189. The Economic Benefits of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in the Kingdom of Swaziland: A case of the National Handicraft Training Centre (NHTC)

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in Swaziland is key for employment and self-employment opportunities which result in economic growth. TVET has proven to be an educational pathway that can be used to significantly reduce the unemployment rate by 2022. TVET graduates acquire skills that empower them to be immediately absorbed by the labour market and/or be self-employed. About 73.1% of the graduates are in productive employment after graduating from NHTC; with 47.6% formally employed, 25.5% self-employed, while 26.2% were unemployed in the period 1995 – 2015. The Benefit-Cost Ratio of NHTC, based on the Government of Swaziland and the Republic of China on Taiwan’s investment in NHTC, is 1:4.66. This means for every E1 invested in NHTC, the economy realises E4.66 through the income generating activities of graduates. The positive return on investment in NHTC indicates that if Government can increase funding to TVET institutions, the economic return can make significant contributions to skills development and GDP growth in the country.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

190. Hyperinflation in Venezuela: A Stabilization Handbook

Author:
Gonzalo Huertas
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The unrelenting surge in prices in Venezuela has crippled the economy and deepened the humanitarian crisis there. Huertas lays out a feasible stabilization plan to stop Venezuela’s hyperinflation. The extent of the humanitarian crisis and shortage of basic goods and services suggests that, on the fiscal side, a stabilization plan should focus primarily on reallocating rather than reducing spending. The authorities should avoid austerity policies and instead spend on taking care of the Venezuelan people. Stabilizing the price level while providing relief to the country’s population would require significant financial assistance from the rest of the world, so it is critical that Venezuela secure strong financial support from the international community. Successful stabilization requires a credible plan to transition to a responsible fiscal policy, the financial resources to carry it out, and the political will to sustain it.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Finance, Inflation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

191. Global E-Commerce Talks Stumble on Data Issues, Privacy, and More

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyaou (Lucy) Lu
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In early 2019, several important members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) submitted noteworthy proposals in a realm of international commerce that has evolved faster than rules to govern it: e-commerce or digital trade. While countries agree on less controversial subjects like banning unsolicited commercial electronic messages, the three leading WTO members—China, the European Union, and the United States—have big differences in their approaches to more challenging issues: data flows, data localization, privacy invasions by data collectors, transfer of source code, imposition of customs duties and internet taxes, and internet censorship. Their differing viewpoints lead Hufbauer and Lu to conclude that the prospect of reaching a high-level WTO e-commerce agreement is not promising. To reach an agreement, either most of the contentious issues must be dropped or the number of participating countries must be sharply reduced. A WTO accord, even of low ambition, would have value if only to establish basic digital norms on matters such as banning unsolicited commercial messages and protecting online consumers from fraudulent practices. A more ambitious accord covering the controversial issues should be negotiated in bilateral and/or plurilateral/regional pacts rather than in the WTO.
Topic:
Economics, World Trade Organization, Finance, Privacy, and Data
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union

192. Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation

Author:
David Reifschneider and David Wilcox
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve faces two important monetary policy challenges: First, since the Great Recession it has struggled to move inflation convincingly up to the 2 percent target level. Second, during the next recession it will struggle to deliver enough support to the economy unless the recession is unusually mild. As a result, the search is on for alternative policy frameworks that might allow the Fed to achieve its monetary policy objectives more effectively. Among the alternatives is average inflation targeting (AIT). The basic idea is simple: Instead of aiming to return inflation over the medium term to the target rate of 2 percent, the Fed would aim to return the average of inflation over some period to the target rate. The crucial innovation of AIT is that when inflation has been running below the target rate, it would have the Fed aim for above-target inflation in the future, in order to bring average inflation up toward the target. Simulations of the Fed’s workhorse econometric model of the US economy (the FRB/US model) suggest that AIT would be a weak addition to the Fed’s policy toolkit for dealing with recessions and persistently low inflation. In addition, simple versions of AIT would sometimes compel the Fed to run an undesirably restrictive monetary policy. AIT is thus not a very appealing alternative to the current framework.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Federal Reserve
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

193. US-China Trade War: Both Countries Lose, World Markets Adjust, Others Gain

Author:
Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The terms of the US-China trade war change often, but the tariff escalations have inflicted documented economic damage on both countries. Expanding the conflict will only increase the damage and reverberate across the world economy. This Policy Brief uses a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to analyze three scenarios that could unfold in coming months. The first scenario is the current situation (as of June 2019). Two additional scenarios assume implementation of proposed US tariffs and Chinese responses. The models project the situation after the two countries and the rest of the world adjust across a time horizon of three to five years. For the United States, higher tariffs raise prices and reduce demand for consumers and producers. For China, the tariffs raise the prices of consumer goods but have less direct impact on producers, because the Chinese have exempted some intermediate inputs. US exports and imports decline under all three scenarios. But China can successfully divert its exports away from the United States and escape maximum economic damage.
Topic:
Economics, Global Markets, Finance, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

194. Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Economy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

195. Chinese Investments in the US and EU Are Declining—for Similar Reasons

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For years China has been one of the world’s most rapidly growing sources of outward foreign direct investment. Since peaking in 2016, however, Chinese outward investments, primarily to the United States but also the European Union, have declined dramatically, especially in response to changes in China’s domestic rules on capital outflows and in the face of rising nationalism in the United States. Concerns about growing Chinese influence in other economies, the ascendant role of an authoritarian government in Beijing, and the possible security implications of Chinese dominance in the high-technology sector have put Chinese outward investments under intense international scrutiny. This Policy Brief analyzes the most recent trends in Chinese investments in the United States and the European Union and reviews recent political and regulatory changes both have adopted toward Chinese inward investments. It also explores the emerging transatlantic difference in the regulatory response to the Chinese information technology firm Huawei. Concerned about national security and as part of the ongoing broader trade friction with China, the United States has cracked down far harder on the company than the European Union.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

196. Fiscal Policy Options for Japan

Author:
Olivier Blanchard and Takashi Tashiro
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For many years, the Japanese government has promised an eventual return to primary budget surpluses, but it has not delivered on these promises. Its latest goal is to return to primary balance by 2025. Blanchard and Tashiro, however, argue that, in the current economic environment in Japan, primary deficits may be needed for a long time, because they may be the best tool to sustain demand and output, alleviate the burden on monetary policy, and increase future output. What primary deficits are used for, however, is equally important, and the Japanese government should put them to better use. The authors recommend that, given Japan’s aging population, the government should spend on measures aimed at increasing fertility—and by implication population and output growth—which are likely to more than pay for themselves.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

197. The Return of Economic Nationalism in Germany

Author:
Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
ermany’s new National Industrial Strategy 2030, unveiled by Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in February 2019, advocates an aggressive industrial policy. Although it stays clear of the virulent economic nationalism of the 1930s and the protectionism of President Donald Trump, its tone and much of its content are unmistakably nationalist. Zettelmeyer concludes that three of Altmaier’s five proposals—attempting to further raise the German share of manufacturing, restricting non-EU imports of intermediate goods, and promoting national champions in Germany and the European Union—are bad policies. The two remaining ideas—preventing some foreign takeovers and ramping up state support for certain technologies—are somewhat easier to justify, based on either market failures or the risk of technological dependence on foreign companies susceptible to political interference. But even in these areas, the specific policies proposed may well do more harm than good.
Topic:
Economics, Nationalism, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

198. Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

199. The Rise of Global Innovation by US Multinationals Poses Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon, and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For decades, US multinational corporations (MNCs) conducted nearly all their research and development (R&D) within the United States. Their focus on R&D at home helped establish the United States as the unrivaled leader of innovation and technology advances in the world economy. Since the late 1990s, however, the amount of R&D conducted overseas by US MNCs has grown nearly fourfold and its geographic distribution has expanded from a few advanced industrial countries to many parts of the developing world, creating an innovation system that spans the globe. Like many aspects of globalization, including the offshoring of manufacturing over recent decades, the globalization of R&D raises concerns about US competitiveness and loss of technological leadership. At the same time, the spreading geographic location of innovation presents opportunities for US-based companies if the right policies are adopted to seize them. The research presented in this Policy Brief demonstrates that US innovators continue to remain involved in important ways in US MNCs' global R&D activities, and fears of a hollowing out of US capacity to innovate—based probably on previous fears about the hollowing out of US-based manufacturing—may be overstated. Indeed, the large and growing pool of highly educated scientists and engineers in the developing world could increase the rate of global productivity growth, to the advantage of US-based companies and the world in general. The authors conclude that a productive way to capitalize on the globalization of MNC R&D is not to oppose it but to combine emerging-market talent with MNC experience so that innovation can flourish to improve global living standards and fuel economic progress.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Multinational Corporations, Risk, and Innovation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

200. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit

Author:
Sarah Hall
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Britain, China, and United Kingdom