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1101. The Role of Development Actors in Responding to Environment and Security Links

Author:
Karen Meijer and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Despite growing interest among development actors to integrate links between the environment, climate, peace and security into their policies and activities, practical approaches to addressing environment-related security risks are lagging behind awareness at policy level. This policy brief provides insights into how donors can incentivize implementing organizations to further develop and apply these practical approaches. It recommends support that: (a) facilitates engagement between implementing organizations and local communities, and prioritizes local knowledge and solutions; (b) builds new partnerships between implementing organizations from both the environment or climate side and the security or peacebuilding side; (c) enables the sharing of good practices and lessons learned on how to address environment-related security risks at various levels; (d) promotes the inclusion and prioritization of environment–security links in country-level policies; and (e) is more flexible in implementation, as well as engages in long-term commitments and funding.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, Risk, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1102. Adapting the Missile Technology Control Regime for Current and Future Challenges

Author:
Kolja Brockmann, Mark Bromley, and Lauriane Héau
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is a cornerstone of the non-proliferation architecture for missiles and other uncrewed aerial vehicles. However, geopolitical and technical developments and operational challenges threaten the regime’s effectiveness and create a need for reform in several areas. The MTCR partners should develop a clear strategy for determining if and how to expand MTCR membership. To increase the number of adherents, partners should pursue reinforced outreach and expand and promote the benefits offered. By improving the transparency of its procedures and deliberations, the regime can make them more understandable for non-partners. The partners can also improve the MTCR’s legitimacy by emphasizing that it provides public goods and helps states to meet their international obligations. The regime can also address the challenges of emerging technologies by focusing on technical deliberations and sharing information and good practices. Through all this, the MTCR must ensure its continued functioning in the face of geopolitical tensions and armed conflict between partners.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1103. How to Engage and Prevail in Political Warfare against China

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In his report to the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party in October, Xi Jinping praised the progress made over the past decade under his leadership to advance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation domestically and internationally. According to Xi, this is taking place in an era of “momentous changes of a like not seen in a century [and which] are accelerating across the world.”1 For Xi, these “great changes” comprise “a significant shift [that] is taking place in the international balance of power, presenting China with new strategic opportunities in pursuing development.”2 A pillar of Xi’s plan to realize the rejuvenation of China and to emerge as the preeminent nation in the region and beyond is to shrink the strategic, military, economic, political, and normative ground in the region on which the United States can sustain, build, and demonstrate its power and influence. This is because China knows there is no material or nonmaterial counterbalance without the US. Additionally, the more China can weaken the resolve of US allies and other countries to support American-led initiatives to counter China and the credibility of the US-led alliance system, the smaller and weaker the ground for Washington to maintain its footholds in distant lands becomes, and the closer China draws to its goal of preeminence. The Chinese plan relies on building unmatched “comprehensive national power,” or CNP, which China can use to seduce, compel, or coerce other nations.3 CNP has material and nonmaterial elements. Regarding the latter, Beijing places enormous emphasis on political warfare in the form of information and influence operations. The first three memos in this series on Chinese political warfare argue that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) makes no distinction between wartime and peacetime and believes it is engaged in a perpetual “struggle” against the West.4 Regarding political warfare, the previous memos noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plays a central and often dominant role in leading doctrine and operations when it comes to informational and influence warfare.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1104. Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation

Author:
Luke Coffey
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev as president of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the start of the USSR’s collapse—but not the collapse itself. While the USSR ceased to exist as a legal entity after 1991, the collapse of the USSR is still happening today. The two Chechen Wars, Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the on-and-off border skirmishes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the 2020 Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan are just a few examples showing that the Soviet Union is still collapsing today. However, future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today. Russia has undeniably suffered a major blow to its economy, devastation to its military capability, and degradation of its influence in regions where it once had clout. The borders of the Russian Federation will likely not look the same on a map in 10 or 20 years as they do now. As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass. The goal of this policy memo is not to advocate for regime change in Russia—this will be a matter for the Russian people. Nor does this paper predict exactly how Russia and the broader Eurasian region will emerge after the final collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation. Instead, it establishes realistic goals for Western policymakers, outlines assumptions on which these goals are based, and highlights the questions that decision-makers should ask now to better prepare for the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

1105. Targeting Financial Entities outside Iran to Counter Tehran’s Economic Strategy

Author:
Yair Albeck
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Tehran is stringing out the nuclear negotiations endlessly with the expectation that President Joe Biden will not admit that the talks have failed. After such an admission, the public would likely pressure the administration to stop offering Iran stealth economic relief through the lax enforcement of sanctions. Rigorous enforcement would, the White House fears, remove Iranian oil from the market and contribute to the global energy crisis that Russia’s war against Ukraine sparked. Meanwhile, Iran is benefitting doubly—strategically and economically—from the war, selling missiles and drones to Russia and oil to China. Given this advantageous situation, Tehran wants negotiations to continue. Can the United States escape from this conundrum? In fact, it can impose severe economic costs on Tehran without removing oil from the market.
Topic:
Corruption, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Democracy, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1106. Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemen’s Public Debt

Author:
Sana'a Center Economic Unit
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
For decades prior to the ongoing conflict, Yemen had been vulnerable to recurring budget deficits due to a lack of meaningful fiscal reform, high recurrent expenditures – mainly public sector salaries and fuel subsidies – and an overdependence on oil revenues. While foreign debt obligations remained low, the debt market was poorly diversified, with treasury bill holders narrowly concentrated within the banking sector and government bonds held almost exclusively by public pension funds. The escalation of the ongoing conflict in 2015 has had a profoundly negative impact on Yemen’s debt position. Large-scale oil exports ceased, leading to a collapse in public revenues, while banks and pension funds stopped purchasing government debt instruments. Management of the public debt became bifurcated between rival central bank administrations in Aden and Sana’a, both of which suspended payments on foreign and domestic debt obligations. Unable to receive interest payments, public debt holders faced a liquidity crisis, leaving banks unable to honor customer obligations and threatening their solvency, while pension funds have struggled to support retirees. On January 25-27, 2021, senior Yemeni experts and professionals convened virtually for the 7th Development Champions Forum (DCF), as part of the Rethinking Yemen’s Economy initiative, to discuss the evolution and structure of Yemen’s public debt, the dynamics during the conflict that have led to its colossal expansion, and the macroeconomic risks it poses. This was followed a week later with a briefing for international stakeholders on February 2. These discussions formed the basis for the research presented in this paper and its recommendations for addressing Yemen’s public debt crisis. Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemen’s Public Debt - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/18247
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Armed Conflict, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

1107. Broken Dream: The oligarch, Russia, and Georgia’s drift from Europe

Author:
Régis Genté
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Georgia’s relationship with the West has deteriorated over the last year and a half. The Georgian government’s actions have prevented the country from becoming a candidate for EU membership. Three-quarters of Georgians see themselves as pro-Western; only a tiny proportion of the population is pro-Russian. Oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili appears to be largely responsible for this dissonance between Georgian foreign policy and public opinion. Through his control of the Georgian Dream party and the government, Ivanishvili may be attempting to manoeuvre Georgia into Russia’s sphere of influence. It is still possible for the EU to work with Georgia. But the bloc should condition the financial and political support it provides – starting with the 12 points that Brussels designated in June 2022.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, and Oligarchy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

1108. The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations

Author:
Kadri Liik
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Policymakers across the EU agree Russia poses a multifaceted threat to their security. Europeans have responded quickly to the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine, but they lack a ‘theory of victory’. They have no shared view about how the conflict is likely to end. No single EU member state is guiding Russia policy; a ‘leaderless unity’ has emerged. This could provide the bloc with a form of dispersed strength – but a change in US leadership could expose the weakness of this situation. EU policymakers do not believe that Europeans have the means to bring about regime change in Russia; at the same time, they are unable to foresee a stable future relationship with a Putin-led Russia. Policymakers are uncertain how Russia’s war on Ukraine will affect their interaction with other parts of the world, including China and the global south. This could prevent Europeans from mounting a more effective global response. Europeans should re-examine the support they give to Russians fleeing the regime – emigrés represent an important connection to Russian society, which will be valuable whoever occupies the Kremlin.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1109. Fragmentation nation: How Europeans can help end the conflict in Yemen

Author:
Helen Lackner
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
For eight years, Yemen has suffered a civil war, whose conduct has been exacerbated by outside powers, principally Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one side, while Iran has supported the other. Yemen is a politically, socially, geographically, and religiously fragmented country, including within the two broad areas controlled by the internationally recognised government and the Houthis respectively. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may soon decrease their military interference in Yemen – but their exit could expose divisions in both government and Houthi areas. Yemen was poor before the conflict, but a corrupt war economy has now taken hold, strengthening an array of local power holders, while the Yemeni people slip into ever-deeper destitution. Short-term measures introduced with the support of the international community have failed to stabilise the situation. Europeans should take a longer-term approach to Yemen. They should promote the country’s cause in their diplomacy with Gulf Arab states and make a commitment to economic support, a values-based approach, and an emphasis on human rights in Yemen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil War, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and United Arab Emirates

1110. Cold winter: How the EU can help Moldova survive Russian pressure and protect its democracy

Author:
Andrew Wilson
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia has long used gas prices and supply to put pressure on Moldova. It did so again when the country elected pro-European president Maia Sandu in 2020 and her parliamentary majority in 2021. Moldova occupies a significant geostrategic position with regard to the war in Ukraine, as a key ally and neighbour to that country’s immediate west. The Moldovan government has made some progress on its reform agenda, all while dealing with the impacts of the war, including looking after refugees and handling increased transit of goods across its territory. If the government can get through this winter, in 2023 it should be able to further diversify its energy options and make stronger progress on reform of the judiciary, defence, and security. The EU should support the Moldovan government in its endeavours. The country remains highly vulnerable to Russian pressure but financial assistance in the short term and support for reform in the long term will help it make progress, including towards eventual EU membership.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Democracy, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Moldova

1111. The US economic presence in Greece – George Tzogopoulos

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The excellent status of Greek-American relations is reflected in the economic sphere. The stock of American Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Greece has increased in the recent years. The technology sector has captured the attention of American digital giants, which have displayed a tendency to choose to build some of their innovation hubs in Greece. Although this is not a new phenomenon, the last few years have seen several new investments, as well as an increasing number of tech-labs in which Greece’s digital ecosystem flourishes. Over and beyond Greece’s digital transformation, the country’s shift toward green energy has sparked the interest of American companies, keen to explore opportunities. In tandem, the US is a critical supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Greece, which is, in addition, slowly acquiring the infrastructure capacity to function as an artery through which American LNG can be transported to other markets in the Balkans. Greek ship-owners are playing a significant role in the new energy market. The investment of ONEX in Syros is crucial for Greek-American co-operation in the maritime sector and could possibly be replicated in the Elefsis shipyards. The real estate sector appears attractive for American companies. Focused principally on the acquisition and/or renovation of hotels, this is expected to boost the tendency of American tourists to return to Greece after the two-years hiatus imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive momentum could also encourage more American students to study in Greece. The volume of Greek-American trade has steadily increased since 2016, with Greece maintaining a diminishing surplus.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Trade, Real Estate, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, North America, and United States of America

1112. Population Displacements in the Ukraine War: The challenge of first humanitarian assistance – Antoine Laurent

Author:
Antoine Laurent
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Since February 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered the largest war-related displacement of population in Europe since the aftermath of World War Two. Setting up an effective humanitarian response to support internally displaced persons in Ukraine is a task of major political importance. Since the beginning of the war, local volunteers have played a key role in providing assistance to internally displaced persons in Ukraine. They are often unable to comply with the standards set by international humanitarian institutions, which refuse to fund them, despite their being in urgent need of support. There would seem to be a need to relax the common standards that apply to humanitarian assistance in order to allow local actors, including volunteers, to collaborate with international humanitarian organisations. Helping informal groups of volunteers to organise themselves into non-profit organisations or NGOs could encourage international humanitarian organisations to support them.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Displacement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1113. Post-Kemalism and the Future of Turkish Governance – Nicholas Danforth

Author:
Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Disillusionment with Erdoğan and the AKP after 2013 has reshaped the study of Turkish politics and history, leading scholars to focus on new themes and new periods. Comparative approaches, political economy and a newfound interest in the Cold War have offered a more nuanced understanding of Turkish authoritarianism. Post-Kemalism remain more popular in the U.S. and Europe than in Turkey.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

1114. Understanding the Firm-Level Export Diversification Characteristics in Botswana

Author:
Pinkie Gertrude Kebakile
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This Policy Brief unravels interesting insights pertaining to firm-level export diversification characteristics in Botswana, which is an approach that views export diversification at the micro-level. The following are the key highlights from the Policy Brief: • Exporters whose export portfolios are varied in terms of products and export markets, commonly referred to as multi-product multi-destination exporters in the literature fetch high export values, which is a prerequisite for sustained economic growth in the country. • The growth and diversification of Botswana’s export bundle is undermined by the exporters’ inability to break into new export markets. • The main policy message is therefore that to transition from the upper-middle income status to high-income status by 2036, the country needs to nurture and develop the multi-product multi-destination exporters. Targeted interventions aimed at developing these exporters are therefore called for.
Topic:
Business, Economic Growth, Diversification, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1115. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1116. Women and COVID-19 in MENA

Author:
Amaney Jamal and Mary Clare Roche
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Key Findings: Women more concerned about COVID-19 than men COVID-19 increased family stress Perceptions of gender based violence tended to decrease during the pandemic Structural barriers to work more pressing than cultural barriers
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

1117. New African Union Commission (2021-2025) Challenges and Issues After the Reform Initiated by Paul Kagamé

Author:
Benjamin Augé and Félicité Djilo
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The election of the Commission to run the African Union (AU) on February 6 and 7, 2021 was an important step towards implementing its institutional reform. The Commission is the institution’s real government, setting the pan-African organization’s objectives under the leadership of the Heads of State who meet once a year at the Assembly. The Chadian Moussa Faki, who was re-elected as AU Commission (AUC) Chairperson, has the onerous task of undertaking this reform, initiated by the former AU Chair, Rwandan president Paul Kagamé, between 2016 and 2018. The African Union (AU) has been led for the past year by a new Commission whose results will be closely scrutinized by the organization's member countries. The Covid-19 pandemic has largely contributed to slowing down the institutions in Addis Ababa, handicapping the South African and Congolese presidencies. The Senegalese presidency is eagerly awaited to exit the AU from the theme that has dominated debates for 24 months into Covid-19. The reform of the African Union initiated by Rwandan President Paul Kagame is beginning to be implemented, but its results will have to be assessed in the long term. The AU's Peace and Security Council (PSC) is in the hands of Nigerian Bankole Adeoye after 18 years of Algeria's stranglehold. The PSC is facing a multitude of a multitude of crises - civil war in Ethiopia, Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, English-speaking provinces of Cameroon, coups d'état in Mali, Guinea and transition in Chad - the management of which remains particularly politicized.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Reform, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

1118. The pandemic’s long reach: South Korea’s fiscal and fertility outlook

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea was one of the first countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. A combination of high societal discipline and competent and prompt government actions on mass testing capacity and technologically enabled tracing and quarantines enabled South Korea to quickly control the pandemic. Consequently, South Korea did not need to enter into full economic lockdown in early 2020 and needed only much smaller fiscal stimulus than most other advanced economies. The limited fiscal impact of COVID-19 is fortuitous for South Korea, as the pandemic coincided with the country’s dramatic demographic transition to a future of rapidly shrinking working-age population and accelerating overall aging. South Korea recorded the lowest total fertility rate of any advanced economy in 2020. Unless fertility rates rise, the country will not escape large and negative economic effects from what will be a rapidly declining total and working-age population. Kirkegaard proposes several policy reforms for South Korea, while arguing that the direct role of government action in increasing the South Korean fertility levels is likely to be modest.
Topic:
Demographics, Economy, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Fertility
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

1119. RCEP Is Not Enough: South Korea Also Needs to Join the CPTPP

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for South Korea are limited and need to be supplemented by more comprehensive agreements that deepen Korea’s ties to strategic allies in the Asia-Pacific region. RCEP's most important achievement is its new regional content rule that will encourage deeper integration of supply chains across the 15 markets, a key benefit for Korean industries invested in the region. But Schott notes that the pact also has significant limitations. To complement RCEP, he recommends that South Korea move forward with two other trade negotiating priorities, membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and upgrading the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), the latter aimed at encouraging US reengagement in the Asia-Pacific integration pact.
Topic:
Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

1120. Collateral benefits? South Korean exports to the United States and the US-China trade war

Author:
Mary Lovely, David Xu, and Yinhan Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This Policy Brief assesses the extent to which the United States increased its imports from South Korea after the US imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports. Korea benefited from this shift in US imports, although the increase was relatively small in most sectors. The authors use highly disaggregated US import and tariff data to examine adjustments in US purchases of manufactured goods from its trade partners. Their analysis indicates that Korea made a small gain in the US market following the levying of US tariffs on Chinese exports, with Korea’s share of overall US manufacturing imports rising 0.9 percent and its share of US manufacturing imports subject to trade war tariffs rising 1.0 percent. Gains were spread across a variety of manufacturing sectors—such as wood products, textiles and apparel, and machinery—reflecting both the choices made by US officials regarding which Chinese exports to tax and the nature of preexisting trade relationships between South Korea and the United States.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

1121. Another reason to raise the Fed's inflation target: An employment and output boom

Author:
David Reifschneider and David Wilcox
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 2012, the Federal Reserve formally adopted an inflation target and set it at 2 percent, in line with the level chosen by many other central banks. In hindsight, this setting left policymakers with too little room to cut interest rates when they want to fight recessions. Many researchers have noted that if central banks raised their inflation targets—either individually or in concert—they could do a better job in the long run of keeping inflation near its target and the workforce fully employed. Reifschneider and Wilcox highlight an additional and less-noted consequence of raising the inflation target modestly: The economy could enjoy a temporary but substantial boom in employment and output as it adjusted to the increase in the target. Critical to generating this favorable outcome would be decisive action by monetary policymakers to ensure that the higher inflation target is achieved in a reasonably timely manner. In light of substantial transition benefits, as well as the long-run improvement in economic performance, the authors recommend that the Federal Reserve raise its inflation target to 3 percent as part of its next framework review.
Topic:
Federal Reserve, Employment, Economy, and Inflation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1122. Climate policy is macroeconomic policy, and the implications will be significant

Author:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For all the long-term benefits of urgently addressing climate change, economic policymakers must plan for a challenging transition to carbon neutrality. Pretending that the costs will be trivial is dangerous. Estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations indicate that emergency action is indispensable to limit catastrophic climate disruption. Because of the magnitude of the efforts involved and the pace of the transformation implied, the accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy is bound to have serious, immediate economic implications, warns Pisani-Ferry. Some equipment will lose economic value. Some plants will have to close. Employees will have to be reallocated to other occupations. Investment will have to increase, to repair or rebuild infrastructure and the capital stock. He argues that so far policymakers have not addressed these implications in a systematic manner. It is high time policymakers realize that climate policy is also macroeconomic policy and design transition strategies now.
Topic:
Climate Change, Macroeconomics, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1123. An Uneven Global Rebound Will Challenge Emerging-Market and Developing Economies

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As the US economy rebounds amid elevated inflationary pressures and Europe grows at a rapid clip, an uneven global rebound looms. Although emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) generally retain good access to global capital markets for now, their relatively slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination will continue to hamper their economic recoveries and strain their public finances—already stretched owing to the fiscal pressures of the pandemic over the past year and a half. Higher interest rates in the rich countries, particularly the United States, could tip EMDEs into liquidity and even solvency crises. The likelihood of crises is higher if advanced-economy central banks move abruptly, surprising markets. Global policymakers should prepare now by enhancing mechanisms for providing liquidity to EMDEs and, in cases of insolvency, for restructuring their sovereign debts. Perhaps even more important, the scope for uneven recovery can be limited if rich countries make an all-out effort to deliver vaccines globally and enhance less prosperous countries’ infrastructures for getting shots into arms.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Inflation, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

1124. Digital agreements: What’s covered, what’s possible

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Rapidly expanding digital flows have significantly contributed to world economic growth. The exponential expansion of digital flows since 2005 has partially compensated for lethargic growth in global conventional trade and foreign direct investment flows. COVID-19 accelerated the digital revolution in 2020, as businesses and consumers increasingly “went digital” in everything from online education and work to shopping. Many countries, particularly the United States, have enormous commercial and cultural interests in preserving the freedom of cross-border digital traffic. Strong international agreements can keep digital highways open, but agreements reached so far do too little to discipline government practices that threaten to restrict digital flows, allowing ample room for ideological and protectionist obstacles. A new and better agreement is necessary to safeguard the growth of digital flows.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

1125. Can EU carbon border adjustment measures propel WTO climate talks?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Armen Hovakimian, and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Reforms proposed in the European Union’s “Fit for 55” climate policy package are likely to sharply increase the cost paid by European firms for their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recognizing that increased carbon prices would put European firms at a disadvantage in competing with imports from countries that produce without incurring these costs, the European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requiring that the most carbon-intensive EU imports either incur comparable carbon charges as EU firms or pay the equivalent of a carbon-based tariff. The CBAM aims to deter carbon leakage, which could arise if firms shift carbon-intensive production out of Europe to facilities in countries that do not tax GHG emissions (or tax at a low rate) and then export the goods to Europe. European production and output would suffer and global climate efforts to reduce GHG emissions would be undercut. The loftier goal is to encourage other countries to follow the European example and strengthen their own national decarbonization policies, which in turn would exempt their goods from CBAM charges. The CBAM would cover five carbon-intensive industries: iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizer, electricity, and cement. Countries most affected by the CBAM include Russia, China, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, South Korea, and India. Some are likely to contest the policy, claiming that the CBAM is a unilateral measure that violates World Trade Organization rules and bolsters protectionism while hampering rather than encouraging efforts in other countries to tackle climate change. A better and more feasible approach would be adoption of a CBAM moratorium while negotiations are conducted to promote carbon abatement policies that comply with the rules-based global trading system.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Imports
Political Geography:
Europe

1126. How the rest of the world responds to the US-China split

Author:
Hung Tran
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The election of Joe Biden as the forty-sixth US president is not expected to change the list of substantive issues dividing the United States and China, such as trade, investment, technology, geopolitical competition, national security, and human rights—except that the priority among them may change, with human rights concerns moving more to the forefront. However, the tone and modality of the unfolding of the US-China competition will change from Donald Trump’s unilateralism to Biden’s efforts to build alliances with “likeminded” countries in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere to deal with the challenges China has posed. In a way, Biden’s alliance-building approach may intensify pressure on the rest of the world to take sides. How countries respond to this challenge, unwelcome by most, depends on whether they see themselves as competitors to China, or as “price takers” in the international economic system.
Topic:
Global Markets, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Trade, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1127. Biden and Belarus: A strategy for the new administration

Author:
Anders Åslund, Melinda Haring, John Herbst, and Alexander Vershbow
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
United States President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has an historic opportunity to bring Europe together and reverse the tide of dictatorship by building an international coalition to support democracy in Belarus. In 2020, Belarusians unexpectedly called Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s legitimacy into question in the country’s August presidential election. Lukashenka brazenly rigged the results, claiming that he took 80 percent of the vote, but neither the United States nor the European Union (EU) recognizes his victory. A months-long protest movement has coalesced that demands new elections under the supervision of the international community. Recent years have seen no better chance for US leadership to facilitate lasting positive change in Europe than the crisis in Belarus. But how to secure democratic change in Belarus is not simple given internal resistance and Moscow’s determination to prevent another “color revolution.” Lukashenka is likely finished, unable to restore any authority or legitimacy. But he is seeking to hang on despite Moscow’s efforts to arrange a pliable replacement who would preserve Minsk’s pro-Russian orientation. Managing Moscow’s efforts to prevent an aroused citizenry from choosing their own leader is no easy task. Russia remains the key geopolitical player in Belarus, often plays the long game, and may be willing to countenance military options that the United States cannot. Perhaps the key fact is that Belarusians have made it amply clear that they want accountable leaders that they can choose and dismiss for themselves. More than thirty thousand peaceful protesters have been detained since August, more than three hundred and fifty police officers have defected, and ordinary Belarusians are no longer afraid to voice their opposition to the regime. Kremlin support for the ongoing repression risks turning the Belarusian people—historically friendly toward Russia—in a pro-European direction. These changes in Belarus are something that Moscow cannot ignore, and the United States and its allies must nourish and strengthen them in consistent ways that avoid and deter a Kremlin overreaction. Biden, with his long experience promoting US values and interests and his determination to strengthen transatlantic relations, is ideally situated to promote clear support for the people of Belarus that does not directly challenge Moscow’s security interests.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Sanctions, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe, Belarus, and United States of America

1128. Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq

Author:
Oula Kadhum
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq – authored by Dr. Oula Kadhum, explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein. It looks at the ways members of the diaspora sought to help in the rebuilding of their country of origin, at both the elite and grassroots levels, as well as investigating changes over time. Importantly, it analyses the obstacles that have hindered diaspora mobilization since 2003 and argues that the Iraqi diaspora is a valuable, yet largely untapped resource for Iraq.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Diaspora, Resilience, and Society
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1129. The Role of the Private Sector in Catalyzing Inclusive Economic Opportunities in the Northern Triangle

Author:
Maria Fernanda Bozmoski and Domingo Sadurní
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As in every democratic country in the world, the private sector in Central America’s Northern Triangle (Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador) has a central role in generating employment, driving economic growth, and spurring innovation. But in a region plagued by one of the highest levels of economic informality, weak government institutions, and pervasive corruption, private enterprises—both decades-old industry behemoths and newer startups—can have a more positive influence in steering the Northern Triangle toward inclusive and sustainable economic development. This is not to say that business leaders in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador have been absent in unlocking growth and innovation in the countries, especially since the end of the civil wars in the late 1990s. But in this unique moment of global crisis and renewed attention from the United States, the Northern Triangle’s private sector should seize the opportunity to further position itself as a committed, trusted partner and galvanizing force for positive change. Seeking to address the root causes of unauthorized migration to the United States—including lack of quality economic opportunities, weak rule of law, and violence—the Biden administration’s four-year, $4-billion plan for the Northern Triangle seeks to implement a whole-of-society approach to improve the living conditions of Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans. The plan comes at a time when Central America, already reeling from structural institutional challenges to its ability to govern and improve its economies, grapples with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and two back-to-back hurricanes. As conditions deteriorate on the ground and create additional push factors for would-be migrants, the US government should devote special energy and attention to laying the groundwork for strategic partnerships with private sector actors who are positioned—despite contending with pandemic-induced burdens of their own—to catalyze economic opportunities for their fellow citizens. The business community can be a pivotal player in long-term change that seeks to improve the rule of law, tackle corruption, and open new opportunities for inclusive economic growth. This issue brief takes a deep dive to unpack why a lack of sustained and inclusive economic opportunities—among the three main drivers of unauthorized migration—have eluded the Northern Triangle and how the private sector can help reduce informality, invest in employment-generating sectors, resolve the human capital paradox, and catalyze greater infrastructure investment and digital connectivity.1 While there is an emphasis on high levels of informality causing economic insecurity, it is also true that economic insecurity and lack of investment in economic development also drives informality. This is the first of three issue briefs as part of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s latest Central America initiative, in partnership with the DT Institute, to inform and mobilize key stakeholders at the national, regional, and international levels behind new policy solutions to tackle the Northern Triangle’s most pressing issues. This issue brief is the outcome of a meeting with the Center’s Northern Triangle Advisory Group, which met in February 2021, and will meet regularly during the first six months of 2021 to help inform the three issue briefs.
Topic:
Migration, Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, Private Sector, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Central America, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador

1130. Partnering for Africa’s digital future: Opportunities for the United States, South Korea, and India

Author:
Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Technological competition between the United States and China poses a special dilemma for African nations, whose prosperity depends on doing business with both Beijing and Washington. Although President Joe Biden is expected to assume a softer policy stance toward China—one couched in the language of human rights and liberal values, rather than power and strategic capabilities—competition will persist, driven by Beijing’s ambition to control the key technologies of the future. Rising US-China tensions may eventually force African nations to take sides. Speaking at the 2020 Munich Security Conference, then-US Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned allied nations that the use of Chinese company Huawei’s fifth-generation (5G) technology could compromise future intelligence cooperation with the United States. That’s a real problem for Africa because, together, Huawei and Chinese phone maker ZTE have built nearly 80 percent of Africa’s third-generation (3G) network infrastructure, while Huawei has built 70 percent of all fourth-generation (4G) networks and is competing to build all the future 5G networks in Africa. Chinese mobile-phone maker Transsion Holdings controls 64 percent of Africa’s feature phone market, and more than 40 percent of its smartphone market, and social media platforms such as TikTok and Vskit are fast becoming popular among Africa’s connected youth. For African leaders, disassociation from Beijing is becoming less and less feasible—or attractive. So too is closer alignment with the United States. Washington simply cannot match the large volumes of funding that Beijing extends to the continent. Recent conduct by leading US technology companies, including by Facebook and Google following the 2020 US presidential election, has additionally prompted a global pushback against US “big tech” that could make it harder for the US public and private sectors to compete and hold sway in African markets. Fortunately, there is a third way, both for African countries looking to avoid the crossfires of US-China competition, and for US policymakers seeking to bolster US competitiveness and influence in the region. The solution hinges on closer cooperation with emerging powers, notably South Korea and India, which have recently demonstrated their determination to better understand Africa’s challenges and prospects, and to figure out how their citizens could collaborate with African businesses and governments. For example, in his 2018 address to Uganda’s parliament, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined “ten guiding principles for India-Africa engagement” that center on cooperation in digitalization, clean-energy technologies, and cybersecurity—a marked detour from the policies that have historically shaped India-Africa ties. South Korea-Africa relations under President Moon Jae-In have also entered a new phase, with an emphasis on commercial linkages and people-to-people collaboration. Both South Korea and India are rapidly expanding their technological capabilities, and their foreign policies also align well with US interests in the region, and vis-à-vis China. For Washington, cooperation with these emerging powers could keep the door open to US influence in Africa, and could help ensure that Beijing’s strategic foothold in the continent does not deepen. For African countries, such partnerships could help bypass the “either-or-ism” implicit in US-China competition, while encouraging greater diversity and agency in their foreign affairs. There is real opportunity for African states to realize the potential that such alliances could create, and to become significant multilateral actors, able to leverage their distinct assets and pursue their own interests. This report explores how.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Business, Space, and Innovation
Political Geography:
India, Korea, and Africa

1131. What choices remain for the United States in Syria?

Author:
Nate Rosenblatt and Jomana Qaddour
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Syria is home to one of the world’s most complex conflicts. The chaos caused by the Syrian regime and its allies — within Syria, across the Middle East, and beyond — poses immediate and enduring threats. Considering its foreign policy promise to defend democracy and human rights, the Biden administration does not have the luxury of ignoring what happens in Syria. Accepting that there are fewer options for the United States today than there were ten years ago does not mean normalizing the Assad regime or turning a blind eye to Russian and Iranian efforts to tip the balance of power in the region. In a new issue brief from the Atlantic Council’s Syria program, “What Choices Remain for the United States in Syria?,” Nate Rosenblatt and Jomana Qaddour describe the challenges the United States faces in Syria, including Russia’s attempt to expand the UN Strategic Framework as well the struggle to keep the UN humanitarian border crossings open in northern Syria. The memo then lays out the three potential strategies in Syria: one prioritizing the withdrawal of US forces, a second protecting humanitarian access and ensuring progress on limited, critical files, and a third maintaining US support for, as well as coordination with, partners to dial up the pressure on the Syrian government and its allies. The paper ultimately argues that the Biden administration should seize this opportunity to establish a clear strategy in Syria by aligning its defense, development, and diplomatic capabilities with those of its global allies and partners to shape a better outcome in Syria.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Organization, Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

1132. Poland and the United States: What’s right, what’s not, and what’s next

Author:
Daniel Fried and Jakub Wiśniewski
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Around the time of President Joe Biden’s first trip to Europe in June 2021, US-Polish relations experienced a short, but intense, rough patch. Missteps on both sides caused the problems, including fears on the Polish side of a high-handed US attitude and a general lack of consultation on issues (like Nord Stream 2) that Poland regards as critical. Some Poles started questioning the good faith of their biggest ally. The US side, for its part, thought Poland was ignoring US overtures and assuming the worst of the United States. Draft legislation that would target the largest US investment in Poland (the TVN television network) generated US concerns about both the investment climate in Poland and political pressure on independent media. In short order, wiser counsel emerged on both sides, and top-level discussions may ease the sense of tension. 1 But, the episode suggests that problems have developed in what has been (and should remain) one of the closest transatlantic relations. Both the United States and Poland need to look hard at what this relationship can do for both countries and for the transatlantic relationship, and at the sources of problems.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America

1133. A strategic framework for countering China’s human-rights violations in Xinjiang

Author:
Jeffrey Cimmino
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China is engaged in a systematic campaign of repression against predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) in northwest China. Through a combination of detention camps, mass surveillance, birth suppression, and other means, China is responsible for gross human-rights violations. In recent years, the international community has devoted an increasing amount of attention to China’s actions in Xinjiang. Earlier this year, the United States declared that Beijing’s behavior constituted genocide. More recently, the United States and several key partners announced multilateral sanctions on Chinese officials facilitating repression in the region. To build on these developments, the United States and its allies and partners should adopt a more strategic approach to addressing China’s human-rights abuses. This Issue Brief proposes a framework for such a strategy, articulating a multilateral approach for dealing with China’s repressive actions in Xinjiang. This Issue Brief argues that addressing China’s abuses in Xinjiang is of strategic importance. Ultimately, the goal of this strategy is to achieve an end state in which China has ceased its repressive activities; however, even if achieving this objective proves elusive, imposing costs on Beijing’s actions in Xinjiang can still serve broader strategic ends vis-a-vis China. China has chosen an assertive path to attaining global power and influence, and decades of economic growth and incorporation in the global economic system have not been enough to transform Beijing into a responsible stakeholder in a rules-based international system. The United States and its allies and partners will need to impose costs on Chinese behavior that violates international norms. Imposing costs on China’s human-rights violations in Xinjiang is a critical element of a broader strategy to dissuade Chinese Communist Party (CCP) behavior that undermines international norms and to push Beijing toward becoming a cooperative member of a rules-based international system.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Organization, Politics, Sanctions, Economy, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Xinjiang

1134. Trusted connectivity: A framework for a free, open, and connected world

Author:
Kaush Arha
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Global affairs are increasingly shaped by three important and overlapping trends: 1) the unprecedented and growing demand for trillions of dollars’ worth of global digital and physical infrastructure; 2) the ideological battle between democracy and autocracy for the best path forward to achieve peace and prosperity; and 3) the world’s response to changing climate. As democracies address the global demand for a free, open, and connected world while ensuring that local and global emissions targets are met, they need an organizing framework: the concept of “trusted connectivity.” Democratic governments and institutions function with intricate checks and balances to ensure public trust. Unchallenged aggregation of power is antithetical to democracies and instinctively distrusted by their citizens. While holding unimaginable promise, today’s advancements in digital and physical infrastructure also embody new opportunities for malign actors in general, and authoritarian governments in particular, to accumulate and wield this power. Malign influence or control over data, communications, trade routes, energy, and transportation, all of which becomes possible when countries accept infrastructure investments from authoritarian states, could open potential vectors for coercion, disruption, or attack in times of crisis or conflict. In order to deny malign actors this influence over other countries’ infrastructure, democracies need to work together to ensure that the benefits and terms for the host country in building a bridge, port, rail, road, or telecommunications network are equitable and transparent, thereby leading to greater trust and security in addition to economic prosperity. US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., rallied the world’s leading democracies behind this cause at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in June 2021 in Cornwall, England. The G7 nations, comprising the world’s leading free economies and free societies, proclaimed that, as they aim to meet global infrastructure demand, among other goals, their efforts will be guided by shared democratic values. For China, the standard-bearer of an alternate, illiberal model, infrastructure investment serves a different purpose: to increase China’s global economic leverage for its political gain. To prevail in this competition, advance their values, and develop much-needed digital and physical infrastructure, the world’s leading democracies should adopt the principle of trusted connectivity.
Topic:
National Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

1135. Addressing instability in Central America: Restrictions on civil liberties, violence, and climate change

Author:
Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, María Eugenia Brizuela de Ávila, and Domingo Sadurní
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Citizens across Latin America and the Caribbean are rising up in protest. Political frustration and economic stagnation are fueling social discontent exacerbated by the continued COVID-19 pandemic and the slow health response. In Central America, restrictions on civil liberties, high rates of gender-based violence and extortion, and worsening climate change are compounding the lack of economic opportunities and pervasive corruption seen in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In the year of its bicentennial, can northern Central America chart a new path, in partnership with the United States, to tackle the sources of social instability that are forcing migrants to seek a better life? In July 2021, the Joseph Biden administration released the US Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in Central America report. Three of its five pillars call for the United States and northern Central American countries to work together to respect human rights and a free press, counter violence at the hands of criminal organizations, and combat sexual and gender-based violence.1 To ensure a sustained and effective implementation of this strategy, especially on these three pillars, the United States will need to find new ways to work closely with northern Central American governments, domestic and international private sectors, and organized civil-society groups. Following consultations with the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s Northern Triangle Advisory Group (NTAG), this brief highlights the importance of implementing a holistic, multisector approach to mitigate gender-based violence, protect civil liberties and human rights, and build climate resilience. This brief is the third in a three-part series by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and DT Institute that provides policy recommendations for the United States and its northern Central American partners to address the root causes of migration.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Politics, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Latin America

1136. The Special Role of US Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This issue brief is based on Dr. Matthew Kroenig’s written testimony at a hearing on “Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Strategy” before the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee of the United States Senate, conducted on June 16, 2021. US nuclear weapons play a special role in underpinning international peace, global security, and the US-led, rules-based international system. The nuclear threat to the United States and its democratic allies is growing: nuclear-armed, revisionist, autocratic powers (Russia, China, and North Korea) are relying more on nuclear weapons in their strategies, and they are modernizing and expanding their arsenals. In this new issue brief, the Scowcroft Center’s Matthew Kroenig explains why the United States needs to retain a robust, flexible, and modernized nuclear force to meet its national security objectives.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Missile Defense, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

1137. Generational Dynamics of Economic Crisis and Recovery: Prospects for Younger and Older Persons

Author:
Nicole Goldin
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Economic shocks affect young and older age groups disproportionately and highlight the insecurity of the youth labor market and volatility of older people’s savings. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated youth labor market challenges and caused young people to either lose jobs or work fewer hours. It also undermined the financial security of older people who tend to own small businesses given that half of the small businesses either closed down or lost significant revenue during lockdowns. Furthermore, COVID-19 exacerbated the digital divide between generations. While younger people are more likely to be technologically savvy, older generations often lack digital literacy to adapt to online work or virtual communications platforms. Dr. Goldin argues that to alleviate the disproportionate suffering experienced by young and elderly age groups during the pandemic, policymakers should increase targeting of social-protection measures, facilitate private-sector investment in education and training, invest in improving digital services and infrastructure, ensure access to financial services, and collect age-disaggregated data on economic and COVID-related indicators.
Topic:
Women, Internet, Economic Growth, Youth, Resilience, COVID-19, Digital Policy, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, and Latin America

1138. Nuclear priorities for the Biden administration

Author:
John Harvey and Robert Soofer
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
How can the administration of President Joseph R. Biden both address the deteriorating international security environment and follow through on campaign promises to reduce the role of nuclear weapons? Former nuclear deterrence policymakers John R. Harvey and Robert Soofer, from Democratic and Republican administrations, respectively, contend in this issue brief that the Biden administration can address the increasing nuclear threat to the United States, meet its commitment to reduce the role of nuclear weapons, and maintain bipartisan support for US nuclear policy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nonproliferation, Missile Defense, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

1139. Judgments by the Court of Justice of the EU on the EU’s Trade with Israel’s Disputed Territories

Author:
Rachel Frid de Vries
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The EU is one of the largest trading partners of the Disputed Territories (DTs) in the world. The Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) reaffirmed the EU’s differentiation policy between Israeli products from within or outside the DTs. This paper considers the aptness of the role played by the CJEU, the effects and effectiveness of the judgments, and their foreseeable significant implications for Israel.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, European Union, Trade, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1140. The Ministry of Regional Cooperation and Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:
Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Among Israel’s many government ministries, one stands out in particular. It is small, its authority is limited, and many doubt its need. But it is tasked with realizing one of Israel’s greatest aspirations since its founding: Reshaping relations with the Palestinians and its other Arab neighbors through regional cooperation. The Ministry of Regional Cooperation was established in 1999 as a product of political bargaining. Then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak sought to find a job for Shimon Peres, the peace advocate whom he did not want as his foreign minister. Peres used the new ministry as a platform to advance his vision of a new Middle East, while Barak led an Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, Regional Cooperation, History, Domestic Politics, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1141. We Need to Talk Trade and Technology!

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
“It’s May 3, 2021. Don’t forget to upgrade the embedded software in your shoes before you go for a run!” This may sound like a commercial for the 1986 Puma Smart Sneaker[1], the first running shoe with embedded sensors and software in its heel. It could also be an opening line from an old sci-fi movie describing a distant point in the future. Sci-fi movies have a great track record of predicting the future, from video calls[2] to self-driving cars[3]. The former is a dominant part of our daily professional routine these days. The latter is no longer science fiction[4]. So, what if the growing interplay between goods and services is not about the future but a good description of the present? Nowadays we live in a world of connected objects that rely on sophisticated embedded software. Recently, the Volkswagen’s CEO[5] admitted that the only way for VW to remain a successful car manufacturer is to become a successful software company. And while he may be the latest CEO to recognise the business irrelevance of such a goods-services distinction, he certainly is not the only one. Apple understood it well before many other companies when designing mobile phones and their underlying software ecosystem without having any production facilities. Now Apple wants to produce cars[6]. And so do several Chinese telecom giants, like ZTE[7] or Huawei[8]. And the list is longer: Amazon, Tencent, Google, Baidu. All these corporate announcements are another way of saying that mode 5 services[9] are going to be one of the most important ingredients of global competitiveness in many sectors. Car companies are right to get interested in software. Future autonomous and electric vehicles are primarily software-driven products compared to traditional cars. Already in 2010, the General Motors’ Volt car[10] was dubbed as one of the most sophisticated IT products, with over 10 million lines of software code and its own IP address. So, in the future, car manufacturers might need to do software in order to produce cars successfully. Surely, along complex global supply chains with many suppliers scattered around the world. These headline announcements from global manufacturing companies entering the software market and vice-versa, confirm a simple truth: in order to stay competitive, companies can no longer see themselves just as a manufacturing firm, or a services firm. And this simple truth goes beyond the automotive sector. Underpinning this radical shift is a series of digital disruptive technologies, affecting everything from product standards, industrial design, intellectual property, and investment decisions. Such technological developments are game changers for many traditional manufacturing sectors.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Digital Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

1142. Subsidising Balkanisation: What China’s 3G Subsidies Teach us about 5G Open RAN

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Open RAN is increasingly becoming the answer to how to diversify 5G networks and beyond, especially in the light of a potential exclusion of China’s participation in western networks. In recent times, the US and Japan have jointly pledged $4.5 billion to support its development. Much – or perhaps entirety – of this support is predesignated for the O-RAN Alliance, a closed-door and private industry consortium. State interventionism is back – in a sector hereto characterised by open western markets and free competition. The public support currently pledged to the O-RAN consortium bear many resemblances to the Chinese government’s attempt to support TD-SCDMA, a unique standard for the Chinese market that was designed to support local vendors. Its use was a pre-condition for public subsidies for R&D or public procurement. As recent as 2020, the US Trade Representative reported on China’s standard-setting practices and subsidies as one of the world’s worst trade barriers. Those who advocate similar support in the West are either indifferent or nescient about how EU and US trade negotiators worked to address subsidies and opaque standard-setting. It is an open question whether the US and Japan will offer a level-playing field to European vendors – or non-O-RAN members who may develop their own Open RAN variants. Nowadays, Chinese scholars and senior officials openly talk of “TD-style innovation” as a disaster for the nation that delayed China’s rollout of 4G and plunged the economy into a performance and innovation lag. A key lesson for policymakers today is how vendors that cannot survive without subsidies will not optimise the organisation for innovation but public grant-seeking. This is an eerie warning for the 5G debate in some western capitals.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, 5G, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1143. Taxing Digital Services – Compensating for the Loss of Competitiveness

Author:
Erik van der Marel and Peer Schulze
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Several countries around the world have implemented a tax on digital services, commonly called Digital Services Tax (DST). This policy brief takes a closer look at why some European countries have imposed DSTs but not others. Surely, there are economic explanations behind the fact that Austria, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK have introduced DSTs – but not other countries in Europe. The five tax-imposing countries (here called DST5) have been losing trade competitiveness in digital services over the last 15 years. On the many trade competitiveness indicators we compute, the DST5 score lower values and show lower growth rates compared to other non-DST countries in Europe. Moreover, the differences between the DST5 and non-DST countries are stark, suggesting that digital services markets for the latter group of countries are a lot more dynamic and globalized. The difference between DST5 and other European countries in digital services competitiveness is striking. This is not to say that there should not be special taxes on digital services – that is a different issue – but it is important that the discussion about the DST starts from a better understanding of how such a tax relates to underlying patterns of digital service performance.
Topic:
European Union, Digital Economy, Tax Systems, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

1144. China’s Public Procurement Protectionism and Europe’s Response: The Case of Medical Technology

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Anna Guildea, Oscar Guinea, and Philipp Lamprecht
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This paper concerns China’s market for medical technologies and how the Chinese state is assisting its own companies to gain greater sales at the expense of producers from Europe and other advanced manufacturing economies. The medical technology sector captures a variety of products, services and solutions which are essential to the provision of healthcare to citizens. Examples range from fairly simple technologies such as sticking platers, to complex ones, such as coronary stents, orthopaedics and pacemakers. In the last decades, Europe’s exports of medical devices to China have grown robustly. On the back of vibrant innovation, firms from Europe and elsewhere have not just followed the growth of Chinese demand for medical devices – they have also increased their share of Chinese imports. Now, however, this market is at risk of being gradually closed off for European firms as China doubles down on various policies that advantage local firms, while ultimately harming innovation and Chinese patients. China has recently introduced a new element in its industrial policy for its medical technology sector – a policy that builds on its long-term ‘made-in-China’ ambition to have local firms taking up the lion’s share of the market for medical devices by 2030. Beijing and provincial governments are using many different policies to provide support to the domestic industry and are in effect pursuing a policy for import substitution. Accessing the Chinese market for medical devices has never been easy but it has become increasingly challenging in recent years. Direct financial support, tax benefits, R&D support, local content requirements, opaque approval systems and other forms of advantages to domestic MedTech producers are now becoming major sources for the behaviour and development of the Chinese medical device market. China’s Fourteenth Five-Year Plan and the country’s new economic model of ‘dual circulation’ reinforces this trend. The Chinese market is becoming less open. Added to that is centralised state procurement – a new public procurement policy in China that was launched in 2019 for medical devices which has led to a grossly distorted procurement market. While this policy has reduced the price of medical devices in a drastic way, it has also paved the way for Chinese firms to take up a larger market share. This procurement policy is gradually squeezing European firms out of the Chinese market. Competition in China is becoming less fair. These policies follow a pattern. In several sectors, Chinese firms have grown their domestic market share through industrial subsidies and policies that restrict market access for foreign firms – or make it more difficult for foreign firms to compete in China. From their domestic market, these firms have then expanded abroad and taken a more prominent role outside of China. Backed by the Chinese state, these firms can squeeze market opportunities even more for otherwise-competitive European producers. Now this development is happening in the MedTech sector. It is urgent for Europe to respond to China’s procurement protectionism. MedTech manufacturers in Europe are often small and medium-sized enterprises, and they already struggle with getting into the Chinese market. China’s new procurement policy has also had a significant impact on Chinese imports of medical devices: a 1.3 billion euro trade deficit for China in medical technology products in 2019 turned into a 5.2 billion euro surplus in 2020. In Africa, Asia and Latin America, competitive European manufacturers are now confronted with competition from Chinese MedTech companies that have the backing of the Chinese state. The competitive distortions in the Chinese market now spill over to the global market – making European MedTech manufacturers even more disadvantaged. Europe should consider a case at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against China’s policies which reduce European market presence for medical devices. Once agreed, a new International Procurement Initiative might be a useful instrument to wield pressure against the Chinese government to agree to free and fair competition. Europe can also negotiate with China – for instance in the framework of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) or through the new initiative on trade and health that Europe proposed to the Ottawa Group in 2020. These responses should focus both on remedying China’s current policy for growing its domestic medical technology industry by distorting its market and setting out the core policies and rules that should guide the future market for medical technologies. Fredrik Erixon and Anna Guildea are Director and Research Associate, respectively, at ECIPE. Oscar Guinea and Philipp Lamprecht are Senior Economists at ECIPE. The authors are grateful to a number of experts in the private sector and from the European Commission, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy in Germany, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that have taken their time to share their knowledge with us.
Topic:
Health, Science and Technology, European Union, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

1145. From SMEs to Unicorns: What Role for Trade, Standards and New Tech?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The global economy has been shaped by important, disruptive technological changes in recent years. Many of these technologies have been instrumental in our global COVID-19 response and will become the new normal. Some of these technologies have been introduced by small firms, which grew spectacularly to become ‘unicorns’, with very high market value and global reach, setting new technological standards in their sectors. The future competitiveness of the EU economy depends on the interplay between firm size, technological progress and ability to use the opportunities offered by global markets. This paper looks at the role of trade policy in influencing this complex interplay and offers a few tentative conclusions and recommendations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

1146. Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Time to Go Back to the Drawing Board

Author:
Fredrik Erixon
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief takes stock of the global and European trade and carbon-emission effects from CBAM. It argues that the current design of the CBAM is not good enough and, ultimately, that there are risks that it will dent the positive effects on global carbon emissions that come from a lower cap on carbon emissions in Europe. These effects will happen through trade and the reallocation of production – and from retaliatory responses from countries that will be negatively affected by the CBAM. This Policy Brief provides recommendations on what the EU could do to improve the CBAM. First, it should respond better to concerns about WTO compatibility. No one knows if CBAM would stand up in a WTO dispute, or if the issue of WTO compatibility is of relevance at all. What we do know, however, is that the EU is going a bit off-piste with CBAM, and it knows it. It’s better to address these issues directly than to pretend that they don’t exist. It could, for instance, pre-empt problems by offering compensatory concessions for affected countries. Moreover, the revenues raised by CBAM fees could be paid out to the origin country for the exports. There will be a price for the EU to pay and the more front-footed it is, the more choices it will have in deciding what political currency to use for the payment. Second, the EU should address development problems that will arise from CBAM. The genie is already out of the bottle since development concerns have been raised by the European Parliament and EU member states. Something will have to be done to avoid that CBAM makes it harder for poor countries to improve their welfare. Third, the EU should provide workable ideas for how CBAM could be anchored in trade and climate agreements. If more economies go off-piste in their climate policies (e.g. in subsidies and procurement), the EU is going to be harmed. Hence, the EU has a strong interest to establish an example and provide international rules for how other countries should act in the future when they take measures that ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’. Fourth, the EU should provide a realistic assessment of what retaliatory strategies that other countries will use against the EU, and get a much better understanding of the dynamic or second-order actions that CBAM will prompt. These actions can have a very bad impact on both EU growth and its efforts to decarbonise the economy. It is just decadent to avoid dealing with them pre-emptively. Finally, and more ambitiously, the EU should consider how it can avoid that CBAM (not the ETS) provokes carbon leakage through both imports and exports. In its current shape, the CBAM provides an incentive to move imports up the value-chain and reallocate imports to goods with embodied carbon. Moreover, the CBAM will reduce the external competitiveness of EU exports, leading to a reduction in foreign sales. Both effects will move the global production of CBAM goods to countries with lower carbon costs and higher carbon intensity in the production.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and WTO
Political Geography:
Europe

1147. EU and Mercosur in the Twenty-First Century: Taking Stock of the Economic and Cultural Ties

Author:
Oscar Guinea and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the latest developments in the EU-Mercosur economic relationship and outlines the existing non-economic relationship in order to contextualise the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement and its potential for strengthening common bonds between both regions. Trade between the EU and Mercosur is significant, with both regions holding an important place as large markets for each other’s exports. Currently, trade between the two is dominated by trade in machinery, agriculture, and chemicals. As relevant as these traditional sectors are, their trade is also increasingly supported by trade in services, which unlike trade in traditional agricultural products such as soya, beef and sugar that are either stable or declining, is rapidly increasing. In addition to trade, EU and Mercosur economic bonds are also supported by investments. EU member states hold a large stock of investment in the Mercosur countries while investment flows from Mercosur into the EU are also increasing. This increase has been particularly marked in high-tech sectors like R&D and computer software, emphasising again the changing economic relationship between the EU and Mercosur from traditional to advanced sectors. These trade and investment dynamics are complemented by changes in the EU-Mercosur supply chains. Over the past ten years, the effects one region has on the competitiveness of the other have increased and will continue to do so into the future. The EU is the largest contributor to Mercosur exports, meanwhile Mercosur countries provide the biggest value-added to EU agricultural products. A primary underlying trend found across all dimensions of the EU-Mercosur economic relationship has been the rise of China. In trade, it takes two to tango, and since 2015, it has been China, rather than the EU, that has risen to become Mercosur’s main trading partner. Over the past nine years, the amount of Chinese value-added embedded in Mercosur exports has more than tripled. Moreover, China has ramped up its investment into Mercosur countries, while also receiving increased investments from Mercosur. So, although the EU-Mercosur relationship is changing and bonds have deepened, the EU faces constant competition from China in its relationship with Mercosur. Despite these changes, the EU and Mercosur share a long history of close non-economic relationships. Both have been at the receiving end of large migration flows from each other. This has led to the development of kindred cultures, shared languages, and strong non-economic ties. These similarities have long supported the establishment of deep economic bonds through meaningful collaborations in science and technology, ease of doing business, and provisions for working professionals through various cooperation agreements. However, with the rapidly changing nature of their commercial relationship, these cultural links might not be enough to sustain the economic relationship between the two. These ties need to be complemented by the ratification of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement to nurture their changing relationship.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Trade, South American Union (UNASUR), and Mercosur
Political Geography:
Europe and South America

1148. The Future of EU Leadership in the Car Industry: Still Global

Author:
David Henig and Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Automotive is Europe’s key export industry, an important contributor to the EU economy, from balance of payments to employment, and a manufacturing base to global and European brands; Balancing the EU’s climate ambitions (and its implied economic transformation) with a successful EU car industry is therefore crucially important. The car industry is at the forefront of new initiatives to tackle the climate emergency, shaped by these new regulations its products and infrastructure will be radically different in just a few years; Proposals within EU frameworks such as Green Deal, Fit for 55, and Next Generation EU are about reducing emissions and reshaping industry. Yet, the policy mix also leans towards increased regulatory costs and loss of competitiveness that can only be partially offset by climate subsidies and import substitution; This cumulation of measures also carries significant risk of retaliation from our key export markets for the car industry. In particular, attempts to apply green regulation extraterritorially are seen as provocative by third countries and unlikely to be accepted without response; Since the EU is the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars, it has most to lose if the global economy regresses into protected markets. Open global supply chains also enable EU manufacturing to retain competitiveness, and has also helped to keep the component and services portion of the industry going despite a relative decline of demand in motor vehicles in the EU; Consumer support for Green Deal initiatives will be lost if there are no affordable and sustainable alternatives for personal mobility – which also requires open markets. Thus, cars play a significant role in sustaining both EU macroeconomic stability and support for the Green Deal; The Green Deal and an open economy must not become a binary choice for Europe. The automotive industry is today global, digitised and electrified by default. The EU cannot mass-produce locally unless it can also compete globally – which entails facilitating industry transition, minimising retaliatory risks and understanding the biggest transition the industry is facing since Henry Ford’s invention of the assembly line.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, WTO, Green Deal, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

1149. What Future for the Gaza Strip in the Next Five Years?

Author:
Omar Shaban
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Since the Palestinian division occurred in June 2007, the Gaza Strip has become a geographical area with a political and legal context different from the West Bank. The Gaza Strip is a small area in size, but a large one in problems. It is under the rule of Hamas, which is not recognized in the Arab world, nor internationally. After Hamas took control of the Strip, Israel imposed a comprehensive blockade and exposed it to four, long, destructive wars and dozens of smaller armed confrontations over 14 years. The policy of the suffocating blockade enforced by Israel, as well as the repeated wars and military attacks, have created an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and resulted in massive destruction of infrastructure and all economic sectors and activities.[1] The Gaza Strip is supposedly part of the territory of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the future state, according to international resolutions and the Oslo Agreement signed between the PLO and Israel. However, as it is not geographically connected to the remaining Palestinian territory, and, since the Palestinian division in 2007 that brought it outside the control of the PA, and the failure of attempts at reconciliation and unity, the question is again raised: ‘What is the future of the Gaza Strip within the next five years?’
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Violent Extremism, Conflict, Hamas, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

1150. What role for NATO in the Sahel?

Author:
Chloe Berger
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the Libyan regime in 2011, the Sahel region has gradually gained significance within the NATO environment. The chaos in Lib- ya has accelerated the interconnection of North African and Sahelian dynamics, creating a complex environment with serious implications for both the stability of North Africa and the Mediterranean Basin. The Sahel region suffers from a paradoxical situation. In view of the multiple national (Sahel armed forces), regional (African Union (AU), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)) and internation- al actors (United Nations, European Union, and also non-African states) present on the ground, the situation is often dubbed a “security traffic jam”. Some NATO Allies who have traditionally wielded influence in this region, have also invested in regional stabilization and development efforts for a long time. For the first time at the June 2021 NATO Summit, Al- lies have explicitly voiced their concerns over the “dete- riorating situation in the Sahel region”.1 As the “newest addition” in this already “crowded” environment, and at a time of review of its Strategic Concept, the Alli- ance must demonstrate its added value; identify “niche” areas where it can complement and strengthen existing efforts; while considering the Sahelian countries’ aspira- tions and specific needs.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, North America, and Sahel

1151. Biden’s nuclear posture review: what's in it for NATO?

Author:
Andrea Chiampan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The Biden administration has formally start- ed a review of the US nuclear weapons poli- cy known as Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). The NPR is a public policy document that each US administration has published since 1994 during the first months in office and that is scheduled to be released in 2022. NPRs are important public statements: they set out the administration’s views on the role of nuclear weapons in US grand strategy. NPRs are also crucial signalling documents. They provide insight into an administration’s understanding of the prevailing geo- political environment – including perceived risks and threats – and convey US intentions to allies and adver- saries alike. Given NATO’s significant reliance on US extended deterrence, the elements of continuity and change that the new NPR will propose will inevitably have direct effects on NATO’s defence posture.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

1152. The future of NATO

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO’s reflection process (NATO 2030), as well as the decision to revisit the Alliance’s Strategic Concept in 2022 pose two sets of questions: the first pertains to the organization’s adap- tation to tomorrow’s security environment; the second is on whether there is agreement inside the Alliance on the kind of organization to be built, and what its prin- ciples and methods should look like. This Policy Brief examines these two levels of ques- tions to identify five possible directions in which the Alliance might move: continuity; refocusing on collec- tive defence; morphing into a security organization; standing up to China; and marginalization.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1153. NDC@70: more relevant than ever

Author:
Stephen J. Mariano
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The information revolution put brick and mortar academic institutions under pressure to adapt, and the COVID pandemic has increased atten- tion on higher education models – business, intellectu- al, and philosophical. As the NATO Defense College (NDC) turns 70, and the Alliance ponders a new Stra- tegic Concept, it is worth reviewing the NDC model and value of education more broadly. General Dwight D. Eisenhower created the College in 1951 to prepare military and civilian officials for duty in NATO posts or in NATO-related positions in their capitals. War col- leges in France, the United States, and the United King- dom provided the conceptual basis for the NDC, but the NATO equivalent would have two differences: the NATO College would focus on Alliance issues more than national colleges, and consensus-building would be a key part of its education method. Seventy years later, the College still prepares military and civilian officials to assume positions of responsibility within NATO and that preparation has always included acquiring geo-stra- tegic knowledge and building relationships. NDC@70 means reflecting on how senior leaders acquire knowl- edge, develop skills, and strengthen relationships in to- day’s challenging period with rapid rates of technologi- cal change and increasingly segmented societies.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1154. Future warfare, future skills, future professional military education

Author:
Andrea Gilli
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Created in 1951 by Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower to endow NATO Allies’ officers with a forum for strategic education and politico-military re- flection, this year the NATO Defense College is cele- brating its 70th anniversary. In a world of rapid change and growing uncertainty, the best way to honor the past is to prepare for the future. This Policy Brief contributes to this goal by looking at the future of Professional Military Education (PME). Based on the recent Con- ference of Commandants,1 the discussion is divided into three parts: what the future of warfare is, what skills future warfighters will need to possess, and how professional military education will have to change ac- cordingly.
Topic:
NATO, Education, War, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Professionalism
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1155. The US in NATO: adapting the Alliance to new strategic priorities

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer and Martin Quencez
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At the June 2021 NATO Summit, Allies agreed that “[we] will engage China with a view to de- fending the security interests of the Alliance”, as “China’s stated ambitions and assertive behaviour present systemic challenges to the rules-based inter- national order and to areas relevant to Alliance securi- ty”. For Washington, it was a win to have NATO, the cornerstone of the United States’ network of alliances, acknowledge the challenge posed by China and expand the Alliance’s predominantly transatlantic focus. During his visit to Europe in Spring 2021, President Biden signalled that “America was back” with a clear vision for NATO and that he was seeking European partners’ support. The US President’s recommitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is premised on the expectation that NATO address the country’s current and future strategic concerns, in a security and geopolitical environment that has dramatically changed these last twenty years. China, technological competi- tion, climate change, and hybrid threats and their desta- bilizing effects on NATO member states’ political co- hesion, are now at the core of the US strategic agenda. These priorities redefine NATO’s purpose. In this con- text, NATO’s new Strategic Concept, to be presented in 2022, aims at addressing these very changes, espe- cially as the Alliance enters the post-Afghanistan era. The US objectives vis-à-vis NATO are threefold. In the short term, the Biden administration seeks to re- engage with NATO as part of a larger effort to work with Allies around the world. US public opinion is clearly supportive of the Alliance across political affiliations, despite the politicization of the debate under the Trump administration. In the longer term, NATO will remain relevant to the US, only if it contributes to the strategic competition against China. This can take different forms and re- quire moving beyond two decades of out-of-area oper- ations to tackle challenges of a broad nature, especially in the cyber and techno- logical realms. Finally, the US aims to continue work on struc- tural issues within the Alliance, such as bur- den-sharing and political cohesion, whilst devel- oping a new partnership agenda that better fits its priorities. To sum up, NATO will remain a “global alliance” shaped by the US global strategic priorities, and will continue to strengthen its engagement with “global partners” as the increasingly complex security environment requires transregional approaches.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

1156. Partners Across the Globe and NATO’s Strategic Concept

Author:
Gorana Grgic
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO’s history is one of continuous adapta- tion in the aftermath of critical junctures both 1 during and after the Cold War. The most recent push to transform the Alliance is embodied in laying out the groundworks towards the new Strategic Concept and the institutional campaign “NATO 2030” which calls for the Alliance to become more political- ly active and global in reach, along with strengthening its military power.2 Among the issues this effort has spotlighted are NATO’s global partnerships which at the moment include Afghanistan, Australia, Colombia, Iraq, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mongolia, New Zealand and Pakistan, i.e. NATO’s Partners Across the Globe (PAG). This Policy Brief assesses the value of NATO’s Part- ners Across the Globe in light of the new security challenges and argues that preserving the status quo vis-à-vis global partnerships is not advisable since it is incompatible with the changing strategic goals. In pro- viding the recommendations moving forward, it argues the Alliance has two options. First, the Alliance could overhaul the PAG grouping and distinguish between the types of partners with whom it can establish deeper cooperation. Namely, this would involve elevating the Asia-Pacific Four into an institutionalised grouping, rather than having it remain an informal platform for cooperation. Alternatively, NATO could do away with the existing PAG nomenclature and keep the partner- ships flexible and issue specific. It could thus follow the “NATO 30+n” model, which would include working with a set group of partners on different issues.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1157. European allies and the forthcoming NATO strategic concept

Author:
Barbara Kunz
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The forthcoming NATO Strategic Concept will primarily serve the purpose of adapting the definition of the Alliance’s core tasks to 21st century realities. This includes an updated threat analysis, as well as a widening of priorities to include matters and domains such as cybersecurity and soci- etal resilience. It will, in many ways, also reflect the considerable changes European security underwent since the publication of its preceding Strategic Con- cept in 2010. It will therefore be the first post-Crimea Strategic Concept, and mark the end of a cooperative security approach to Russia. The new text will also be the first post-Trump administration document, one elaborated after a period of profound doubts over US commitment to the Alliance. Finally, the new Strate- gic Concept will be adopted after years of sometimes heated debates on European security, particularly on the notion of European strategic autonomy. While a consensus on this concept and its implications for the Atlantic Alliance has thus far proved elusive, it seems clear that Europeans increasingly understand the need for a stronger, and in many ways more independent Europe. To some, recent events in Afghanistan may also have been a wake-up call. In reality, however, most of these developments are structural in nature, and have persisted for some time.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1158. What Russian-Israeli cooperation in Syria?

Author:
Dima Course
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Since 2015, Russia has largely supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria against di- verse opposition. At the same time, Israel has continued its policy of limited military intervention – predominantly air strikes against Iranian targets and proxies, many of which are Russia’s partners in Syria. The Israeli strategy of attacking Iranian targets in Syria is not new. For example, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) destroyed Assad’s nuclear reactor in 2007. Rus- sia has also been present in Syria for a long time, but until 2015, its presence was limited and it did not play a significant role in relations with Israel. Since 2015, however, the situation has changed sig- nificantly. Russian aviation and air defence began op- erating actively on the side of Assad’s regime. From the beginning, the media in both Russia and Israel hypothesized that the activation of Russian forces in Syria would interfere with the activities of the Israeli Air Force. Moreover, Israeli officials regularly voiced complaints that the Russians were actually interfering and hindering IDF operations in Syria. At the same time, the two sides have cooperated to a degree, enabling frequent attacks by the Israeli Air Force against targets in Syria affiliated with Iran. This Policy Brief offers a comparative analysis of Russian and Israeli interests in the context of the Syr- ian conflict. It contends that cooperation between the two countries has been a win-win situation for both sides, while having little influence on Russian-Israeli relations more generally.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

1159. NATO 2030 and the out-of-area conundrum

Author:
Gorana Grgic
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Over the recent years, the Indo-Pacific has grad- uated from being a geostrategic term reserved for a relatively niche community of analysts to an almost ubiquitous, albeit still fuzzy concept that in generous interpretation could capture as much as five continents. The fact that policymakers around the world are paying greater attention to the region is no doubt a reflection of the impact security and econom- ic developments in this realm have on the rest of the world, and which are by and large a direct consequence, or a by-product of, China’s growing power and asser- tiveness. Thus, a number of NATO Allies have been adjusting their approaches to the region, its key players, and potential Allies and partners. This shift in strategic attention has coincided with a growing foreign policy consensus in the United States and allied states towards ending the “forever wars” in the Greater Middle East, and ceasing the so-called era of out-of-area (OOA) missions by NATO. The Alli- ance has been deemed to have strayed from its orig- inal mission of deterring and defending against Rus- sian aggression in Eastern Europe, which became even more apparent following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and intervention in Ukraine in 2014. Yet, as more NATO member states look towards re- sponding to challenges emanating from the Indo-Pa- cific, the prospects of future OOA operations in this region are becoming likelier than at any point in the post-Cold War era. This in turn leads to a slew of ques- tions around the conceptualisation and execution of potential OOA operations in the Indo-Pacific. At pres- ent, the institutional leadership is adamant: “(T)here is no way that NATO will move into the South China Sea”,1 while some of the major and middle powers in the Alliance are far from foreclosing that option. This Policy Brief first sketches out the strategic vision of those member states that have articulated Indo-Pa- cific strategies, after which it turns to the concept of OOA driven by new strategic imperatives. It concludes by proposing a framework of assessment for the pros- pects of coordination and cooperation among NATO Allies in the Indo-Pacific, and offers some preliminary thoughts on the near- to medium-run OOA activities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1160. U.S. Security Ties With Korea and Japan: Getting Beyond Deterrence

Author:
Stephen Haggard
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Japan and Korea—the United States’ two key allies in Northeast Asia—are both advanced industrial democracies facing similar constraints from a rising China and a nuclear North Korea. One would think that trilateral cooperation would be a cinch. Yet Japan and Korea have been at each other’s throats over simmering historical issues and differing approaches to China. Forging a trilateral alliance is highly unlikely. But strengthening cooperation is possible by focusing less on the military components of the alliance—i.e., providing extended deterrence—and more on new issues such as 5G, artificial intelligence (AI), and infrastructure, which can strengthen collective capabilities and make cooperation more appealing.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Security, Nuclear Power, Innovation, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Japan, China, North Korea, and Indo-Pacific

1161. Is Arms Control Over?

Author:
Andrew Reddie
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
In February 2021, the Biden administration announced that it would exercise Article XIV of the New START Treaty—extending the last remaining bilateral arms control agreement between the United States and Russia for five years. The announcement came against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving arms control landscape. The collapse of the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty and the U.S. withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty have led many to suggest that the existing arms control regime might be close to its end. Complicating matters are growing calls for emerging military technologies like cyber and artificial intelligence to be regulated by arms control agreements.2 These developments beg several questions for both policymakers and academics: Why does arms control matter today? What are the near-term challenges to the existing arms control regime? And what are the possible paths forward for arms control?
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
United States of America

1162. Why the U.S. Should Prioritize Security in Its 5G Roll Out

Author:
James Lee
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
5G technology promises to transform practically every sphere of life, from smartphones and self-driving cars, to remote surgery and virtual reality. Policies related to the rollout of 5G in the United States have tended to focus on mitigating security risks, but does protecting security come at the cost of expanding U.S. global influence—or does it simply cost too much? This policy brief by IGCC postdoctoral research associate James Lee analyzes the three main criteria for deciding what a “good” 5G policy should look like—security, global influence, and efficiency— and recommends that the United States’ 5G strategy prioritize security first, influence second, and efficiency third.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, International Security, Innovation, Strategic Competition, 5G, and Power
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1163. A Crucial Link: Using Intellectual Property to Inform Global Supply Chain Policy

Author:
Philip C. Rogers
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with trade tensions and technological competition between the United States and China, have severely disrupted global supply chains. As businesses and policymakers grapple with “building back better” in a tense trade environment, they face the dilemma of balancing the traditional benefits of global production with the security demands of new geopolitical realities. This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, highlights the productive role that intellectual property (IP) can play in navigating supply chain disruptions resulting from great power competition in a post-pandemic world. Rather than reinforcing the vicious cycle of techno-nationalist confrontation, it is possible for businesses and policymakers to promote virtuous cycles of competition with a more robust focus on intellectual property. Specifically, businesses and policymakers can look to IP licensing and allocation of rights to play a key role in tariff mitigation strategies and supply chain restructuring. At the same time, competitive pressures can lead to enhanced IP regimes in China and other economies, which argues for a more nuanced discussion of supply chains beyond physical relocation and economic decoupling.
Topic:
National Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

1164. Why Summit Optics May Help De-escalate Public Appetite for Conflict

Author:
Max Plithides
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
As competition between democracies and autocratic adversaries such as North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China intensifies, democratic publics may increasingly pressure their politicians to take a more confrontational stance. The implications are dangerous. Public pressure for confrontation during the Cold War caused numerous foreign policy fiascos.1 Public pressure also at times undermined the broad political unity necessary for concluding diplomatic agreements— even between democratic allies.2 How then, as the world enters a new era of great power competition, can public pressure and anger be defused and foreign policy put on a more rational footing? This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, argues that bilateral summits with autocratic leaders may have a key role to play in shifting the public’s collective emotional ethos. It analyzes results from a large-scale survey experiment, designed around the historic 2018 Singapore Summit, which represented the first-ever meeting of the leaders of North Korea and the United States and was preceded by months of saber rattling.3 According to conventional logic the Summit was worthless: It produced a joint communiqué with “no concrete specifics”4 and had no effect on President Trump’s approval rating.5 Yet evidence shows that joint photographs from the Summit reduced bellicosity in American public opinion towards North Korea by allowing President Trump to act as a visual empathetic mediator. The Singapore Summit thus broadly evinces the potential value of bilateral summits to reduce tensions with autocratic adversaries.
Topic:
Democracy, Citizenship, Strategic Competition, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1165. The One-China Policy: Adapting to Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
James Lee
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Tensions are growing in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese warplanes have violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in record numbers, prompting fears of an invasion.1 2021 was the first year in which a potential crisis over Taiwan rose to the level of a “Tier 1 risk” in the Council on Foreign Relations’ Preventive Priorities Survey, which is an annual survey of American foreign policy experts.2 The United States faces a decision about what it can do to help prevent crossstrait tensions from escalating into war. A vital question is whether, and how much, the United States should change its “One-China policy.” Beginning with the Trump administration and continuing with the Biden administration, the United States has bolstered its support for Taiwan and become more assertive in resisting Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the self-governing democracy.3 Although U.S. officials stress that the United States continues to adhere to the One-China policy, there is growing concern, as expressed by Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute, that the United States is “edging closer and closer to the line that separates unofficial relations with official relations, which, in effect, could hollow out America’s One-China policy.”4 How much flexibility is built into the One-China policy, and what limits does the policy impose on what the United States can do to support Taiwan? To answer those questions, this policy brief explains what the One-China policy is and how it can exhibit both continuity and change. Analysis of the One-China policy often focuses on the Three U.S.-China Joint Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances, which can create the impression that the One-China policy has not changed since those texts were formulated in the 1970s and 1980s.5 In fact, the One-China policy has been revised, such as in the Taiwan Policy Review during the Clinton administration.6 The One-China policy is neither set in stone nor completely fluid, and this policy brief identifies which elements are fixed and which elements are variable. It explains the OneChina policy at three levels: the fundamental position, the doctrinal statements, and the practices and conventions. These levels of policy range from the most abstract to the most concrete, but each is logically consistent with the others.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Security, Strategic Competition, and One-China Policy
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

1166. Funding the ERP: Analysis of funding for the implementation of the Education Response Plan (ERP) for refugees and host communities

Author:
Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper is an analytical review of the financial performance of the Education Response Plan for refugees by the end of June 2020. This analysis gives an in-depth review of the education financing for Government of Uganda supported schools in refugee settlements in Lamwo District Local Government. The total contribution of the Government of Uganda to the actual ERP spend was USD 11.86 million (9.38%). The multilateral donors contributed most to the ERP between year 0 and year 1, with a total contribution of USD 38.69 million (31%). This paper was written by The Centre for Budget and Tax Policy.
Topic:
Education, Refugees, Public Spending, and Schools
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1167. Negotiating Consent: Lessons in defending the right to decide

Author:
Scott A. Sellwood
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Indigenous peoples have long asserted and defended their rights and customary land tenures against the unlawful enclosure of their territories. Yet, despite normative recognition of the right to free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC)—and public commitments by major multinational companies, international financial institutions, and global banks to apply the standard of consent—power imbalances continue to undermine the quality of agreements being reached. Negotiating Consent distills lessons from Oxfam’s work defending community consent in Peru. Drawing on research published by Oxfam partners in Peru—Cooperacción, Organización Nacional de Mujeres Indígenas (ONAMIAP) and Pueblos Indígenas Amazónicas Unidas en Defensa de Sus Territorios (PUINAMUDT), which have published research examining the politics and practices of the implementation of this law—it seeks to contribute to collective thinking around ways to improve the implementation of FPIC processes, processes that are manifestly political. With land inequality worsening, land grabbing continuing unabated, and basic environmental and social protections being rolled back, upholding the standard of consent is more important than ever. It is time companies, investors, and others look beyond paper commitments and take the steps necessary to ensure quality agreements are reached with Indigenous peoples and are maintained across the life of projects.
Topic:
Security, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Land
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1168. More Local is Possible: Recommendations for enhancing local humanitarian leadership and refugee participation in the Gambella refugee response

Author:
Freddie Carver, Elizabeth Deng, and Yotam Gidron
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Gambella region of western Ethiopia hosts over 300,000 South Sudanese refugees in seven camps. The refugee response is dominated by UN agencies and international NGOs and staffed mostly by Ethiopians from outside of Gambella, creating a gap between humanitarian actors and the people they seek to assist. In order to realize commitments to localization and refugee participation made in the Charter for Change, the Grand Bargain and the Global Compact for Refugees, it is critical for refugees and local populations to be more involved in shaping and leading the delivery of aid. This could be achieved through increasing the role played by Gambella-based NGOs, engaging with faith-based actors, facilitating diaspora initiatives and supporting the development of refugee-led organizations.
Topic:
Refugees, Leadership, Humanitarian Intervention, and Local
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

1169. The Ignored Pandemic: The Dual Crises of Gender-Based Violence and COVID-19

Author:
Rowan Harvey
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Gender Based Violence (GBV) is a global pandemic existing in all social groups across the globe, yet it has largely been ignored in the COVID-19 response and recovery plans. It is evident that the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified GBV, including domestic violence and intimate partner violence amongst other forms of violations, but the investments in GBV prevention and response are dramatically inadequate, with just 0.0002% of the overall COVID-19 response funding opportunities going into it. Barriers to achieving gender justice, such as harmful social norms, continue to exist, but progress made since the start of the 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence Campaign show that there are solutions, and feminist activism has been a driving force for progress on eliminating gender-based violence.
Topic:
Gender Based Violence, Violence, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1170. Detention as the Default: How Greece, with the support of the EU, is generalizing administrative detention of migrants

Author:
Vasilis Papastergiou
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Putting migrants and asylum seekers into detention for administrative reasons is a common practice in Greece, despite this policy contravening human rights. Greek authorities are using detention and the new EU-funded closed compounds as a way to discourage people from seeking asylum in Europe. Detention, as outlined in Greek law, should only be used as a final resort and only then in specific instances. Detention carries with it not only a financial cost, but also a considerable moral cost. Detention without just cause violates basic human rights, such as freedom of movement, the right to health and the right to family life. Alternatives to detention exist and must be prioritized.
Topic:
Human Rights, Humanitarian Crisis, Detention, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

1171. Food for Thought: Investing in a sustainable food system

Author:
Marta Piazza
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The focus on profit maximization at the expense of workers, farmers, and women have helped companies reap huge profit margins in the short-term, but as COVID-19 has revealed, it has come at the cost of rights violations. Such costs are no longer considered an acceptable business risk. As human rights gains prominence in investor-company engagement, this briefing note provides information to investors about the risks of ignoring human rights impacts, evidence about the rights violations that persist in the food sector despite company action and charts a way for investors to build a resilient food system given their outsized influence.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1172. Precarity and the Pandemic: A survey of wage issues and Covid-19 impacts amongst migrant seafood workers in Thailand

Author:
Josh Stride
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report presents findings from an extensive survey of migrant workers in the Thai seafood industry conducted by the CSO Coalition. The report focuses on the issue of low wages, the gender pay gap and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on these issues and the workers who experience them. It also aims to develop a national discussion around the issues of a living wage and a decent living for the hardworking migrant workers who generate wealth and produce food for wealthy companies and consumers around the world.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Labor Policies, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Thailand

1173. Transforming the Systems that Contribute to Fragility and Humanitarian Crises: Programming across the triple nexus

Author:
Vittorio Infante
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Conflicts and shocks linked to climate change are more frequent and intense, leading to poverty and inequality, exacerbating these phenomena and people’s vulnerability. In this context, humanitarian relief, development programmes and peacebuilding are not serial processes; they are all needed at the same time to tackle the systemic inequalities that trap people in poverty and expose them to risk. The triple nexus, or programming across humanitarian-development-peace pillars, thus means creating synergies and common goals across short-term emergency response programmes and longer-term social change processes in development, as well as enhancing opportunities for peace so that individuals can enjoy the full spectrum of human rights. This briefing paper aims to identify the tensions and dilemmas that Oxfam faces when programming across the nexus and sets out new policy to address these dilemmas, building upon Oxfam’s 2019 discussion paper on the triple nexus.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1174. Not in This Together: How supermarkets became pandemic winners while women workers are losing out

Author:
Anouk Franck and Art Prapha
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Inequality is worsening and exploitation of women is endemic across the global economy. While inequality of power and value was already deeply unfair before the pandemic, it has now reached shocking proportions. COVID-19 has cost global workers $3.7 trillion in lost income, and women and young workers have been hardest hit, as they are often found in the most insecure and lowest-paid jobs. Few places reveal this trend more clearly than supermarket supply chains. In stark contrast to the escalating human misery brought by the pandemic, the supermarket sector has largely been the standout winner of the crisis. Senior executives, the largest institutional investors, and mostly wealthy shareholders of global supermarkets continue to be rewarded with business-as-usual high compensation and dividends. In fact, during the pandemic, publicly listed supermarkets distributed 98% of net profits to their shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Meanwhile, workers and producers, especially women, across the globe – the people we call ‘essential’ or ‘frontline’ workers – have seen their incomes stagnate or even fall, while their rights continue to be violated.
Topic:
Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, Labor Rights, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1175. An African Response to COVID-19: From principled first response to just recovery

Author:
Ray Deepayan Basu
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In November 2020 Oxfam and SOAS facilitated an online high-level event to bring together African and international policy and public-health professionals to discuss their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, and offer insights into strategies and policies they have enacted in their respective contexts. Speakers tackled a wide range of issues, including government strategies and policies implemented, public health messaging and community engagement, varying threads of intersectionality and an honest discussion about gaps and additional support. This ‘outcomes’ paper draws out the key themes, trends and recommendations emerging from the discussions to inform a people-not-profit-centric Covid response.
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, Community, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

1176. Youth Wellbeing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory: An in-depth, multi-level and interdisciplinary study into wellbeing and gender equality among Palestinian youth

Author:
Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This study presents an important opportunity to fill a gap in knowledge by offering a critical understanding of the state of youth wellbeing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory through a comprehensive interdisciplinary and multi-level approach. By combining the economic, political and socio-cultural spheres and a macro (policy/institutional), meso (organizational) and micro (individual) level analysis, we can explore the root causes and complex dynamics of the processes of youth exclusion and inclusion from the labour market and civic/political life, while investigating the potentially transformative effect of youth agency. The study analyses wellbeing and gender relations for their importance, particularly in the context of the OPT, where youth are especially vulnerable and where wellbeing is threatened.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Governance, Youth, and Gender
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

1177. Still Treading Water: Reviewing six years of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism and the dire water situation in the Gaza Strip

Author:
Laila Barhoum
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of 13 years of the Israeli blockade. The water, sanitation and health (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing the complete collapse of its wastewater treatment system. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of a 13 year blockade imposed by Israel. The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing a stark deterioration of available WASH services at the community and household level. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely aggravated existing vulnerabilities, including access to water and sanitation. This strongly impacts the daily lives of over 2 million people living in the coastal enclave, of whom 1.5 million – or 75% – have been identified as being in need of humanitarian assistance. Oxfam has recently reviewed the challenges associated with the GRM and its impact on the WASH sector in Gaza. Its findings reveal that these challenges are an obstacle to the reconstruction of WASH infrastructure (including operation and maintenance), hindering efforts to address the increased needs of people in Gaza. Donors and UN agencies should consider the needs of people in Gaza today. Rather than continuing with the GRM, they should explore how they can improve their engagement to be able to challenge the Israeli access restrictions, work towards economic development, ensure accountability within access mechanisms, and facilitate inclusive Palestinian participation to access mechanisms and the reconstruction of Gaza.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1178. Shining a Spotlight: A critical assessment of food and beverage companies’ delivery of sustainability commitments

Author:
Emma Fawcett and Suzanne Zweben
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
From 2013 to 2016, Oxfam's Behind the Brands campaign called on the world’s 10 biggest food and beverage companies to adopt stronger social and environmental sourcing policies and spurred significant commitments on women’s empowerment, land rights and climate change. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic worsens inequality and food insecurity around the world, we assess whether the companies have taken meaningful steps to implement the commitments they made in response to the campaign. In this report we find that while companies have taken action at the global level, progress stalls in translating those approaches to countries and through supply chains. There are positive examples and innovations happening in key sourcing countries. But key blockages must be addressed – including by providing the right incentives, disclosing suppliers and supporting suppliers to take up the agenda – to create change at scale.
Topic:
Environment, Food Security, Land Rights, Supply Chains, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1179. Tipping the Scales: The role of responsibility- and solidarity-sharing in the situation on the Greek islands

Author:
Natalia-Rafaella Kafkoutsou and Spyros-Vlad Oikonomou
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report assesses the impact of EU countries’ refusal to relocate asylum seekers on the Greek islands. It illustrates that they have consistently failed to show solidarity by not delivering on commitments to relocate people, either by refusing to participate in the first place or by not fulfilling their pledges. This has left thousands of people in need of assistance on the Greek islands. EU countries have also consistently tried to avoid their legal obligations by putting barriers in place to keep families apart.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Refugees, Asylum, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

1180. In Our Own Words: Perspectives from local actors in the Horn, East, and Central Africa

Author:
Elizabeth Deng
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Oxfam is committed to supporting the participation of local actors in humanitarian and development responses. This includes ensuring their opinions and perspectives about priorities, needs, and appropriate ways of addressing issues are part of public debate. Oxfam advocates for their presence and participation in coordination meetings and other spaces for decision-making. We also provide support to local actors to write and publish their opinions and perspectives. This paper is a compilation of eight opinion pieces written by local actors in the Horn, East, and Central Africa region, with editing and publishing support from Oxfam. The pieces were originally published by Devex, Citizen Digital, Media Congo, IPS News, African Arguments, Nile Post, and WeInformers.
Topic:
Development, Local, Humanitarian Crisis, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

1181. The Inequality Virus: Bringing together a world torn apart by coronavirus through a fair, just and sustainable economy

Author:
Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to lead to an increase in inequality in almost every country at once, the first time this has happened since records began. The virus has exposed, fed off and increased existing inequalities of wealth, gender and race. Over two million people have died, and hundreds of millions of people are being forced into poverty while many of the richest – individuals and corporations – are thriving. Billionaire fortunes returned to their pre-pandemic highs in just nine months, while recovery for the world’s poorest people could take over a decade. The crisis has exposed our collective frailty and the inability of our deeply unequal economy to work for all. Yet it has also shown us the vital importance of government action to protect our health and livelihoods. Transformative policies that seemed unthinkable before the crisis have suddenly been shown to be possible. There can be no return to where we were before. Instead, citizens and governments must act on the urgency to create a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1182. United Nations Special Political Missions and Protection: A Principled Approach for Research and Policymaking

Author:
Daniel Forti
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Independent reviews are a relatively new but increasingly popular tool. Since the practice was established in 2017, there have been nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations. These reviews have been intended to rigorously assess the strategic orientation of peace operations while providing more political credibility than UN-led review processes. But given the diverse processes and incentives that shape them, these exercises are both analytically complex and highly political. As independent reviews have gained prominence over the past five years, reflecting on the experiences of previous reviews is necessary for improving their quality, impact, and sustainability moving forward. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations conducted between 2017 and 2021 by considering emerging trends, best practices, and lessons observed. It begins by juxtaposing the emergence of independent reviews with an increasingly fractured geopolitical landscape for UN peace operations and introducing these reviews’ distinguishing features and objectives. It then analyzes how independent reviews have unfolded in practice across seven different dimensions. The paper concludes by presenting findings about the practice and future of independent reviews and developing criteria to distinguish between UN-led and independent reviews. It also offers recommendations to the UN system, member states, and independent review teams to improve the practice: The UN system should codify independent reviews within formal UN policy, consolidate best practices, clarify roles and expectations of UN staff seconded to review teams, prioritize diversity in the composition of review teams, improve reporting on independent reviews, and establish a dedicated funding stream for independent reviews. Independent review teams should emphasize their transparency and independence, build internal and external constituencies, systematize their use of diverse research methods and approaches, and embrace the support provided by “red teams.” Member states should treat independent reviews as exceptional instead of standard, debrief team leaders following the submission of an independent review, request a formal briefing on strategic reviews and assessments, strengthen reporting requirements on the implementation of review recommendations, and provide ample time for conducting independent reviews.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1183. From Female Engagement Teams to Engagement Platoons: The Evolution of Gendered Community Engagement in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Gretchen Baldwin
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The military components of UN peacekeeping operations have used engagement teams (ETs) to conduct community engagement activities since at least 2015. While ETs were initially ad hoc initiatives, the UN has recently begun to institutionalize gendered community engagement, including through an ongoing shift from ETs to engagement platoons (EPs). Yet despite a general recognition that ETs have been beneficial, they have not been consistently understood or defined, making it difficult to assess how they have been used and to what effect. This policy paper fills this research gap by presenting data on the prior activities of ETs and the experiences of those deployed to them. It aims to help decision makers align policies and guidance on ETs and EPs with evidence of what has and has not worked and to establish a baseline against which EPs can be measured over time. The paper draws on extensive interviews with members of ETs and policymakers, as well as a questionnaire distributed to military peacekeepers in six peacekeeping missions. Overall, this research found broad support for the ongoing rollout of mixed-gender EPs. It concludes, however, that to effectively implement ETs and EPs, leaders in missions and in national militaries must address the institutional barriers that preclude women’s full participation in peace operations and perpetuate gendered stereotypes. Toward this end, it offers several recommendations to troop-contributing countries and the UN: Provide training on the skills required for community engagement to men and women across all levels of the military; Shift the burden for gendered community engagement off of women; Improve internal reporting and analysis by ETs and EPs; Coordinate between ETs and EPs and other mission components; Build the capacity of missions to engage with communities; and Avoid reinforcing gendered assumptions and stereotypes through the activities of ETs and EPs.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1184. Strategic Communications in UN Peace Operations: From an Afterthought to an Operational Necessity

Author:
Jake Sherman and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
United Nations peace operations are increasingly recognizing strategic communications as essential to implementing their mandates and managing expectations about what they can and cannot achieve. This has led them to ramp up their communications capabilities and shift their approach away from the traditional top-down, one-way model of communication. Nonetheless, missions continue to face obstacles in realizing this approach. This issue brief analyzes the current strategic communications practice in UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions. It explores why strategic communications are increasingly important in the contexts where missions are deployed and the external and internal challenges missions face. It also identifies best practices peace operations might adopt or adapt from other parts of the UN system and related fields. The paper concludes that, while missions may need additional resources for strategic communications, what they most need is a cultural shift. Mission leaders need to see strategic communications as a core mission capacity. Strategic communications are not an operational support function, a downstream activity, or an output of a planning cycle; they are an integral part of political strategies and mandate delivery. They are not just a leadership function but a “whole-of-mission” responsibility. Strategic communications must therefore be treated as central to every phase of a UN peace operation. If missions are to succeed, strategic communications professionals should be part of their decision making, from initial planning through transition and exit.
Topic:
United Nations, Communications, Peacekeeping, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1185. The Road to Seoul: Previewing the 2021 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial

Author:
Daniel Forti
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The UN peacekeeping ministerial process has emerged as one of the flagship vehicles through which the UN can mobilize concrete pledges of uniformed personnel, enablers, financial resources, and capacity building for peacekeeping operations. The 2021 UN peacekeeping ministerial in Seoul—the sixth ministerial since 2014—presents a valuable opportunity for member states to make pledges, focusing on four substantive areas: (1) peacebuilding and sustaining peace; (2) partnerships for capacity building and training; (3) performance and accountability; and (4) protection of civilians and safety and security. The conference also has two cross-cutting themes: technology and medical capacity building. This issue brief offers a preview of the 2021 peacekeeping ministerial in Seoul. It discusses the motivation for and evolution of the ministerial format and its value to UN peacekeeping. It also highlights the issues discussed during the four preparatory conferences in the run-up to the conference and briefly summarizes topics raised in both the UN’s official pledging guide and independent white papers commissioned by the Republic of Korea.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1186. The risks from climate change to sovereign debt in Europe

Author:
Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The exposure of European Union sovereigns to climate risks can be acute, from extreme weather, or chronic, from the productivity effects of gradual temperature increase, increased sea levels and the transition to a low-carbon economy that results in repricing of assets. Climate-related innovations can also spur growth. These risks are priced by investors and can affect sovereign credit ratings. Governments and fiscal stability authorities have an interest in the sovereign-debt implications of climate change being transparent. To this end, we look at the exposure of EU sovereigns to climate risks, study international best practices, and describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. European union institutions and national fiscal authorities should mainstream climate risk analysis in public finance. Stress testing of debt dynamic requires a link between regional climate scenarios and country debt dynamics. We argue for the adoption of an architecture of narrative climate scenarios, to guide national policymaking. Narrative Scenarios can be generated using integrated assessment models. As an illustration, we apply two prominent models to generate rough bounds on the extent of the risk for Italian debt from climate change. This raises issues about the models used. Coordination by EU institutions to develop regional scenarios will ensure acceptability, raise ambitions in dealing with climate risks and encourage the fiscal authorities to think of solutions. A network for climate-proofing public finance will bring together EU and member-state institutions. We also recommend budgeting for climate expenditures and contingent liabilities, and using risk-sharing instruments, with disclosure of the risks to public finance from climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Government, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Europe

1187. A new direction for the European Union’s half-hearted semiconductor strategy

Author:
Niclas Poitiers and Pauline Weil
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
A basic component in electronic devices, semiconductors are essential to the production of many products, from smartphones to cars. Securing reliable supplies of semiconductors to safeguard the production lines of a range of industries has thus become an important policy goal, especially in the context of an increasingly confrontational international environment in which high-technology leadership is also associated with military power and geopolitical reach. The semiconductor sector is highly concentrated, capital- and R&D-intensive, and particularly exposed to bottlenecks and political risks. High-end chip fabrication is centred in Asia, dominated by the duopoly of Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung. In other parts of the supply chain, companies in the United States and Europe hold relative monopolies that have been leveraged for trade sanctions. The United States has taken steps to block the supply of chips and components to emerging tech giants in China, and to contain China’s ambitions of building its own cutting-edge chip production capacities. Heavy United states and Chinese investment poses a challenge to the European Union, which in response has set the goal of increasing European production beyond domestic demand. To increase its presence in this strategic and thriving sector, the EU needs a more targeted strategy that builds on its existing strengths while accommodating its relatively low domestic needs. Instead of investing public funds in a subsidy war over fabrication capacity, the EU should focus on inputs and chip design. However, no economy can hope to fully achieve independence in the sector and ensuring sustainable supply through diplomatic means should therefore also be a priority. Lastly, Europe’s small role in global semiconductor production is symptomatic of shortcomings in the European environment for high-tech innovation. These shortcomings should be addressed.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

1188. A green fiscal pact: climate investment in times of budget consolidation

Author:
Zsolt Darvas and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The additional public investment need required to meet the European Union’s climate goals is between 0.5 percent and 1 percent of GDP annually during this decade. Increasing green public investment while consolidating deficits will be a major challenge. While our simulations show that budget consolidation can be done at a moderate pace in line with EU rules if those rules are interpreted flexibly, past consolidation episodes resulted in major public investment cuts. This time, there is a need for a major increase in investment. A ‘green golden rule’ (excluding net green investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure fiscal rule compliance) is the most promising option to address this tension. Relaxing the strictness of the EU fiscal framework beyond its existing flexibility and the proposed green golden rule does not appear necessary in the next few years. The uncertain growth impact of green public spending and the risks to growth from climate change create difficult trade offs in fiscally weaker countries. In any case, better regulatory policy and a higher price on emissions should incentivise private green investment and reduce public costs. These ingredients should be combined to form a ‘green fiscal pact’.
Topic:
Climate Change, Budget, European Union, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Europe

1189. A new integrated-value assessment method for corporate investment

Author:
Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Companies are under pressure to change their business models and become more sustainable. Corporate governance codes across Europe have introduced the term ‘long-term value creation’ to capture companies’ social responsibility. However, the concept of long-term value creation lacks tools that would enable its application. Companies still steer their investments based on outdated valuation methods, which are entirely based on financial value. The concept of integrated value would give substance to long-term value creation. Integrated value involves managing and balancing the financial, social and ecological value dimensions of companies. Impact measurement aims to capture social and ecological value alongside financial value. The first impact measurements of companies are already taking place using cost-based methods. International reporting standards have been developed to harmonise the measurement and reporting of sustainability information. But there is no guidance on how to use the impact information. This policy contribution sets out a proposal on the use of impact information to steer investment decisions. We introduce decision rules based on integrated value. These decision rules allow for the prioritisation of specific types of value, in line with a company’s purpose. A practical example shows how this new decision model can help companies improve their valuation profiles. Society expects companies to include social and environmental value in their strategies and business models in order to retain (or regain) their social license to operate. Further investment in deepening measurement and decision-making methods based on integrated value can speed up the process. The willingness of corporate executives to use these new methods will be decisive for success.
Topic:
Business, Investment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1190. Do robots dream of paying taxes?

Author:
Rebecca Christie
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Robot taxes embody the more futuristic challenges of managing automation and legacy workers. As machines and artificial intelligence take on more roles that used to be performed by humans, policymakers and technologists are assessing the costs this transition imposes and what parts of society will pay them. A robot tax on companies that replace employees with automated systems is easy to dismiss in its most simplistic forms but should be considered in the context of managing the next industrial revolution. A robot tax is a political construction, a way to shape democratic debate around technological shifts and societal needs. It is a construct of the public debate, and as such can contribute to broader discussions about how to make sure profitable companies pay their way in the economy. The political capital of ‘replacement robot’ imagery may be useful in designing a tax framework for legacy firms making the most of new economic opportunities. It is best to consider a ‘robot tax’ as a rallying concept for targeted levies. These policies should target finance and other data-driven sectors as well as traditional manufacturing and mining automation. Policymakers should consider overall employment, specific job losses and how to assess firms that make layoffs in specific areas of their workforces. This last will be especially difficult in cases where total headcount rises, even though some generations of employees may be put out of work. Tax policy can compensate for distortions due to shifts from human-driven to capital-intensive production in specific sectors. On the revenue side, there should be appropriate expectations of what a tech tax can raise and over what period, on the scale of targeted retirement assistance or retraining programmes with measurable outcomes, not long-running cash cows. Smaller and more innovative firms should not be asked to contribute disproportionately, particularly in legacy markets that are hard to break into, and they should be eligible for waivers and exemptions. Policymakers should stress that asking producers to help pay the costs of societal change is not immediately equivalent to stifling innovation, and they should make every effort to design policies in ways that protect against this type of side effect. Finally, any new tax on employers needs to fit with broader discussions of the corporate fair share, and with taxing the most profitable parts of the economy instead of relying on workers and consumers to foot society’s bills.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Business, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1191. Biometric technologies at work: a proposed use-based taxonomy

Author:
Mario Mariniello and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Biometric technologies have in principle the potential to significantly improve worker productivity, security and safety. However, they are also a source of new risks, including exposure to potential personal data abuse or the psychological distress caused by permanent monitoring. The European Union lacks a coherent regulatory framework on the mitigation of risks arising from the use of biometric technologies in the workplace. We propose a taxonomy to underpin the use of artificial intelligence-powered biometric technologies in the workplace. Technologies can be classified into four broad categories based on their main function: (1) security, (2) recruitment, (3) monitoring, (4) safety and well-being. We identify the benefits and risks linked to each category. To be more effective, EU regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace should integrate more detail on technology use. It should also address the current scarcity of granular data by sourcing information from users of AI technologies, not only providers. There is an untapped potential for technology to address workplace health hazards. Policymakers should design incentive mechanisms to encourage adoption of the technologies with the greatest potential to benefit workers. Artificial intelligence users, in particular bigger companies, should be required to assess the effect of AI adoption on work processes, with the active participation of their workforces.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, and Biometrics
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

1192. What is holding back artificial intelligence adoption in Europe?

Author:
Mia Hoffmann and Laura Nurski
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered a key driver of future economic development, expected to increase labour productivity and economic growth worldwide. To realise these gains, AI technologies need to be adopted by companies and integrated into their operations. However, it is unclear what the current level of AI adoption by European firms actually is. Estimates vary widely because of uneven data collection and lack of a standard definition and taxonomy of AI. What is clear is that AI adoption in Europe is low and likely running behind other parts of the world. Discussions on the barriers to AI advancement often mix up different stages of innovation – research, development and adoption. Each stage is constrained by the availability of skills, data and financing in the European market, but there are nuances in how these barriers arise in each of the three stages. This policy contribution focuses on the final stage, AI adoption. We discuss theoretical and empirical evidence of the drivers of AI adoption. We outline the relevant barriers to adoption for European firms in terms of human capital, data availability and funding, and make international comparisons where possible. To accelerate the roll-out of AI technology across the European Union, policymakers should alleviate constraints to adoption faced by firms, both in the environmental context – labour market, financial market and regulation – and in the technological context – data availability, basic digitisation of businesses and technological uncertainty.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Development, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe

1193. The 2021 Australia-US Ministerial Consultations: Five Critical Areas for Cooperation

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
On September 16, the US will host the Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), the annual meeting of cabinet-level principals responsible for foreign affairs and the defense of Australia and the US. Although Australia participates in similar 2+2 meetings with a handful of countries that include the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, and India, AUSMIN is the most established and essential of these for Canberra, reflecting the singular importance of Australia’s alliance with the US. While affirming the closeness of the two countries’ relationship, AUSMIN represents much more than symbolism or tradition, as the US-Australia bilateral alliance is also a practical relationship based on action, outputs, and outcomes. AUSMIN is therefore a necessary event on the calendar that leads to both countries’ formulating objectives and implementing policy decisions. Viewed in a broader context, AUSMIN also increases regional countries’ confidence that US alliances are not merely historical artifacts, but relationships that evolve and respond to the most important of current challenges. The latter point, increasing regional and global confidence in US-led strategic architecture, is crucial, as the rising threat posed by authoritarian nations such as China and Russia requires a collective and coherent response by democratic countries and groupings. The US’s formal alliances in the Indo-Pacific complement other groupings of democracies such as the Group of Seven and newer entities such as the Quad, which involves the US, Japan, India, and Australia. In particular, its alliances with Japan and Australia are the US’s northern and southern anchors in the Indo-Pacific. Consequently, as one of the most important annual meetings of the US-Australia alliance, AUSMIN takes on even broader significance and relevance due to its role in ensuring regional and global balances of power, resolve, and values that favor liberal democracies. This paper outlines five areas that, from an Australian perspective, are critical to the Australia-US security partnership and efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Areas of discussion that should be prioritized by AUSMIN participants include: shifting orthodoxies around warning times for military conflict with China; increasing multi-domain joint military training; responding to illegitimate Chinese economic activity; adapting shared geopolitical strategy to account for the pandemic’s impact in the region; and countering Chinese narratives about the superiority of authoritarian models of governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Australia and United States of America

1194. Filtering and Site Blocking: Necessary Reforms for the Digital Marketplace

Author:
Steven Tepp
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Business models and technology have changed dramatically since the 1990s; nowhere more so than online. Those changes, alongside some key judicial decisions, have distorted the operation of the US copyright law provision specifically designed to address online copyright infringement. Today, even a platform that knows that 80 percent of what it hosts are unlicensed copyrighted works, it can be shielded from accountability by the safe harbors in the Copyright Act. Copyright owners are left to send millions of takedown requests with little actual effect on piracy. This, along with other factors, led the US Copyright Office to conclude that the cooperative environment the law was meant to create has not and will not be realized without amending the law. And while dozens of other countries have successfully adopted measures to address online infringement from beyond their borders, the United States has not acted to implement similar procedures.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, Reform, and Criminal Justice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1195. Xi Jinping’s Evergrande Dilemma

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Evergrande is one of the top-two real estate developers in a still highly fragmented Chinese sector. Its main strategy is to achieve ever-increasing scale (rather than profitability) in order to move ahead of and crowd out commercial competitors. It has also amassed the largest land reserves of all Chinese developers, which were financed through massive borrowings. By 2018, Evergrande held 822 pieces of undeveloped land in 228 cities, with a planned gross floor area of 3.28 billion square feet of new homes—the equivalent of 10 percent of Germany’s entire housing stock. It paid $75 billion just for this undeveloped land. Although Evergrande’s market share is only around 4 percent, its borrowings stand out. Its current balance sheet liabilities amount to an estimated 2 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP), while its off-balance-sheet liabilities could be another 1 percent of China’s GDP. This makes Evergrande the most indebted property developer in the world. Burdened by this debt, struggling to meet its debt interest and repayment obligations, and viable only if property asset values and sales continue to increase, Evergrande faces possible financial collapse—an event bound to have flow-on effects for the Chinese economy. However, the unusually high global interest in Evergrande has arisen because its woes are increasingly seen as symptomatic of those faced by the broader Chinese economy, which is struggling with enormous levels of indebtedness and overreliance on the real estate sector. Debt held by nonfinancial institutions in China increased from about 115 percent of GDP in 2010 to around 160 percent of GDP currently. This is the most rapid and largest increase in a 10-year period for any major economy and makes the level of debt held by Chinese nonfinancial institutions one of the highest in the world. The real estate sector accounts for around 15 percent of GDP, while property services account for another 14 percent—the highest in any developing economy. The share of the real estate sector as a proportion of GDP was only about 4 percent in 1997 and 9 percent in 2008. Since 2008, up to a third of all domestic fixed investment has gone into real estate, and up to half of total national debt is linked to the real estate sector.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Markets, and Business
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1196. The Value of Cellular Technology

Author:
Urška Petrovčič and Kirti Gupta
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Cellular technologies, such as those embodied in the third generation (3G), fourth generation (4G), and fifth generation (5G) of cellular standards, have provided the foundation for a thriving mobile ecosystem that has benefited consumers and businesses all over the world. In the past 20 years, the number of mobile connections has grown almost 10-fold, reaching an ever-growing percentage of the global population. In 2017, the number of mobile connections surpassed the number of people on the planet. In 2019, mobile technologies and services added $4.8 trillion of economic value to the global economy, and the mobile ecosystem employed (directly and indirectly) 30 million people. Although cellular technology has already transformed all facets of our society, the deployment of 5G will bring even broader and more radical changes. By connecting everything and everywhere, 5G will help us realize the full potential of connectivity and usher in the era of smart transportation, smart cities, smart factories, and smart homes. The new products and services enabled by 5G will change all aspects of our daily life, such as health care, energy, agriculture, automotive, manufacturing, and retail, among others. This will not only benefit consumers and businesses, but society as a whole. Cellular technologies are central to this revolution. Without advances in the cellular space, none of the economic and societal benefits we see in the connected world would be possible. Therefore, it is important to understand how cellular technologies are developed and deployed, and what impact they have on the economy and on society more broadly. It is also important to understand why fairly compensating cellular innovators is essential to maintain a sustainable system where new technologies can be developed and brought to consumers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, Criminal Justice, and 5G
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1197. Genocide in Xinjiang: Centering Uyghur Human Rights in US Policies Toward China

Author:
Nury Turkel
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Acts of genocide are currently underway against the Uyghur people in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwestern China, also known as East Turkistan. As part of a campaign of persecution and cultural eradication, Chinese authorities have, according to former detainees and prisoners, subjected millions of Uyghurs and other minorities to rape, torture, forced labor, arbitrary detention, involuntary abortion and sterilization in state-run facilities, and the separation of around half a million Uyghur children from their families. Although both Republicans and Democrats in the United States have acknowledged these horrifying acts as genocide, the rest of the world has been slow to follow, whether because they find the evidence to be inconclusive or because they are reluctant to antagonize China. Regardless, now that the Biden administration is on record declaring the actions of the Chinese government to be genocide, the United States has a legal and moral obligation to do what it can to end the mass atrocities that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is committing against the Uyghur people. While both the Trump and Biden administrations and Congress have already taken steps to address this human rights disaster, more can and should be done to defend the Uyghur people, address their humanitarian needs, promote accountability, and ensure that individuals and entities within the United States—including private businesses—are not complicit in the abuses underway. A strong response to the ongoing genocidal campaign would send a powerful message to Beijing that America will not tolerate efforts to destroy ethno-religious groups, either as a whole or in part. Conversely, failure to act would render the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (which the United States ratified in 1988) and its implementing legislation null and void. Through the three Cs—competition, confrontation, and cooperation—the Biden administration can act in coordination with US friends and allies abroad to end these atrocities. The Biden administration is now on record as recognizing this repressive campaign as genocide, a move that must trigger a response toward Beijing that departs from business as usual. Although China’s significant global influence supports the assumption that effective levers to influence its behavior with respect to human rights issues are lacking, international attention and pressure have already caused Beijing to backpedal to a certain degree. This attention and pressure resulted from US-led efforts to rally international support coupled with US legislative and executive responses, including sanctions, visa restrictions, and trade restrictions. This policy memo outlines the nine areas of action that, performed in coordination with complementary actions of partners and allies, could alleviate the Uyghur human rights crisis, pressure China to reverse course, and ensure that the West and corporate America are not complicit in genocide.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Xinjiang

1198. Transatlantic Paralysis: The US-EU Trade Policy Stalemate and the European Union’s Democratic Deficit

Author:
Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
What is often labeled the democratic deficit in governance of the European Union (EU) is not a a flaw or bug in its architecture, it is a design feature. From its earliest days in the Second World War’s chaotic aftermath, European integration “was essentially an elite project, pursued at a distance from the daily concerns of the national populations in Western Europe.” Also formed as a response to the economic disintegration following the Depression and World War Two, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was similarly removed from national or populist politics. It too was an elite, top-down initiative designed to embed nations in a system of international rules largely articulated by technical experts, enforced by a form of international courts, and far removed from national and populist politics. Many of the intellectual proponents of both supranational institutions, from the Austrian School of economics, the ordoliberals emerging in early-20th century Germany, to the London School of Economics indeed shared a distrust of American-style democracy, let alone the various parliamentary democracies whose failure led to the disasters of the 1930s and 1940s. Over the last fifty years, the institutions put in place after World War II have been perfected and have, to a certain extent, ossified. Many of the difficulties in achieving greater US-EU economic coordination in the 21st century have their origins in the institutional design and the subsequent early implementation of early European Community rules during the post-war period. A brief overview of the history of European integration, and the political thinking behind it, helps explain the current paralysis in contemporary transatlantic cooperation, including in a joint approach to the challenge of Chinese mercantilism and its growing international reach.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

1199. Winning the Geo-Tech Battle and Building the Quad Alliance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Eric B. Brown, John Lee, and Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Under Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has established as its paramount geopolitical objective the replacement of the free and open, rules-based order in Asia with an alternative world order, one that is to be dominated by the interests and values of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This decision presents a danger to the entire world, not just to any one state or group of states. For, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the March 2021 US-PRC meeting in Alaska, the alternative to a rules-based order “is a world in which might makes right and winners take all, and that would be a far more violent and unstable world for all of us.” In furtherance of its objectives, the PRC is in the midst of a large military build-up, but there is much more. For today’s CCP, political power grows not only from the “barrel of the gun,” as Mao Zedong once put it, but also from cutting-edge technologies. Thus, while Beijing pours billions into artificial intelligence and surveillance tech to impose its new “digital totalitarianism” inside the PRC, from Hong Kong to Xinjiang, it is also using its growing technological prowess to press its larger geopolitical agenda in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. It is weaponizing technology and connectivity, along with trade, finance, and other policy instruments to try to rule the key technologies and industries of the future, as well as to improve its strategic positioning and acquire political power over other countries—for instance, through its bid to dominate other nations’ most sensitive data networks, or via the export of its suite of “social stability” technologies, i.e., the “techno-tyrant’s toolkit.” In all this, the CCP’s intent is to entrench its power and Leninist norms and practices to the extent it can do so beyond the PRC’s borders, and to make other nations, or at the least their ruling elites, beholden to it. So in addition to the PRC’s militarily destabilizing activities in the West Pacific and incursions into India’s Himalayas, there is also a “geo-technological front.” If Xi’s CCP succeeds at enmeshing other countries in its expanding “PRC sphere of technological influence,” it could unlock and be able to exploit decisive military, economic, diplomatic, and ideological advantages.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Economics, and Alliance
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, East Asia, and Asia-Pacific

1200. The Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Challenge to the Free World

Author:
Miles M. Yu
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The Chinese economy and the philosophical roots of China’s system have greater implications for the United States economy than many assume. The one critical fact to understand about the People’s Republic of China is that it is a communist dictatorship ruled by a Marxist-Leninist party. The Party is dedicated to maintaining and strengthening its monopoly on all powers in the world’s most populous country and to mounting the most serious challenge to the free world since the Cold War. This policy memo will examine the Chinese economy’s distinct traits, how it operates, and why it thrives under a monopolistic government that exploits and challenges the global free market system, along with possible policy recommendations for the United States and its allies. Unlike most other communist countries, China has been afforded the benefits of a global free-market system and enjoys largely open access to international trade, capital markets, and advanced technologies. The paradox of a communist nation fully participating in a largely capitalist system has enriched and strengthened the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to the point where Beijing poses a mortal threat to the United States and to the international free market economic system that has enabled the rise of the communist state. The West played a role in creating the current state of play. But too many conversations in the United States focus only on our own strategic thinking. In his historic speech at the Richard Nixon Library in July 2020, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo aptly described the situation and how we got here: “Our policies—and those of other free nations—resurrected China’s failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it.” As President Richard Nixon admitted in his later years, his initiative to open up China in 1972 might have created a Frankenstein.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Communism, Economics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America