Content Type: Policy Brief / Publication Year: within 5 Years and within 25 Years / Topic:

1. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

2. Getting regulation right: Approaches to improving Australia’s cybersecurity

Author:: Rajiv Shah
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: As well as having a global impact, Cybersecurity is one of the most significant issues affecting Australia’s economy and national security. On the one hand, poor cybersecurity presents a risk to the interconnected digital systems on which we increasingly rely; on the other hand, well-managed cybersecurity provides an opportunity to build trust and advantage by accelerating digital transformation. Cyber threats can originate from a diverse range of sources and require a diverse set of actions to effectively mitigate them. However, a common theme is that much better cyber risk management is needed to address this critical threat; the current operation of the free market isn’t consistently driving all of the required behaviours or actions. Regulation can provide a powerful mechanism to modify incentives and change behaviours. However, securing cyberspace depends on the intersection of many factors—technical, social and economic. Current regulations are a patchwork of general, cyber-specific and sector-specific measures with a lack of cohesion that causes overlaps and gaps. That makes the environment complex, which means that finding the right approach that will truly improve overall security and minimise unwanted side effects is difficult. It’s necessary to analyse the interconnected factors that determine the net effectiveness of cybersecurity regulations. Furthermore, the pace of technological change is so fast today that, even if regulation is successful when first implemented, it needs to be appropriately futureproofed to avoid becoming irrelevant after even a few months. Recent rapid developments in artificial intelligence are an example of the risks here that will need to be anticipated in any changes to the regulatory regimes.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Regulation
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

3. Seeking to undermine democracy and partnerships: How the CCP is influencing the Pacific islands information environment

Author:: Blake Johnson and Joshua Dunne
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is conducting coordinated information operations in Pacific island countries (PICs). Those operations are designed to influence political elites, public discourse and political sentiment regarding existing partnerships with Western democracies. Our research shows how the CCP frequently seeks to capitalise on regional events, announcements and engagements to push its own narratives, many of which are aimed at undermining some of the region’s key partnerships. This report examines three significant events and developments: the establishment of AUKUS in 2021 the CCP’s recent efforts to sign a region-wide security agreement the 2022 Pacific Islands Forum held in Fiji. This research, including these three case studies, shows how the CCP uses tailored, reactive messaging in response to regional events and analyses the effectiveness of that messaging in shifting public discourse online. This report also highlights a series of information channels used by the CCP to push narratives in support of the party’s regional objectives in the Pacific. Those information channels include Chinese state media, CCP publications and statements in local media, and publications by local journalists connected to CCP-linked groups.1
Topic:: Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Social Media, Disinformation, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Pacific

4. The Far-Right in the Western Balkans. How the Extreme Right is Threatening Democracy in the Region

Author:: Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: At the beginning of the 21st century, the rise of the far-right in Europe should no longer be considered as a peripheral phenomenon but rather as a serious sign of the crisis of the liberal post-Cold War order. The growth of far-right voters and the proliferation of far-right parties, movements, and subcultural groups stands for a changed political and ideological landscape, one where the notion of democracy is increasingly and openly contested. “Rechte Bedrohungsallianzen” – “Right-wing threat alliances” as a direct opposition to open society constitute a phenomenon that must not be ignored. This paper looks closer into the most representative far-right groups and organisations in Serbia during the last two decades. Even though the far-right in most Western Balkan countries is not a decisive political factor yet, the boundary separating its political agenda from mainstream political parties is becoming thinner. The internationalization of right-wing extremism has expanded the strategic possibilities of far-right action beyond national political structures thus giving it an international perspective and global meaning. These new international “signatures of the far-right” continue to be a threat to democracy both in the national and regional context in the Western Balkans as well as beyond the region.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Serbia, Balkans, and Western Europe

5. The third EU-NATO joint declaration (10 January 2023): Was it worth the delay?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Triggered by the war in Ukraine, the long-awaited third joint EU-NATO declaration was signed on 10 January 2023, after months of postponement. Neither a joint strategic concept nor a plan of actions, the document primarily sends a strong political message of transatlantic unity with regards to the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades. Although it recognises the value of a stronger and more capable European defence, it marks the primacy of NATO as European security provider, therefore being seen as a defeat for EU’s strategic autonomy. China’s first ever mention in a joint EU-NATO declaration sparked a nervous reaction in Beijing.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Ukraine

6. Facing the next public health emergency: How do we know how (un)prepared we are?

Author:: Christian Haddad and Hugh Schmidt
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: In the realm of political preparedness, numerous benchmarks, metrics, and best practice models have emerged as integral sites in the ongoing debate. Taking the Global Health Security Index as a specific example, this paper delves into the advantages and disadvantages of such global security rankings. This analysis aims to explore the potential uses and drawbacks of employing metrics to evaluate and modify (inter-)national preparedness plans. Situating this discussion within the broader context of the escalating significance of crisis preparedness and management, particularly in the face of acute disruptions to vital infrastructures and the immense costs they entail, as well as their adverse impact on public health and societal safety. However, the findings of this analysis reveal a notable political and strategic risk associated with an excessive reliance on these metrics. It is important to recognize that these metrics not only rely on robust scientific methodologies but also rest upon selective assumptions about the world and the definition of threats. The case of the Global Health Security Index serves as an example, as the assumptions underpinning these metrics have proven inaccurate in the face of an actual pandemic. Consequently, overconfidence and misguided approaches to crisis preparedness have ensued. Additionally, this work offers a concise historical overview of preparedness thinking, outlines the field of Global Health Security, presents the existing metrics employed, and critically reflects on these tools. While metrics provide valuable insights, they should be approached with caution and an awareness of their limitations. By adopting a critical lens and recognizing the political dimensions inherent in these metrics, policymakers can make more informed decisions and develop more effective preparedness plans in an ever-evolving world of crises.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Public Health, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Green Hydrogen Industrial Value Chains: Geopolitical and Market Implications

Author:: Nicola De Blasio and Laima Eicke
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The global transition to a low-carbon economy and adopting the needed clean energy technologies at scale will significantly impact existing value chains1 and transform production-to-consumption lifecycles. Regulatory and business models will need to rapidly evolve to manage the resulting substantial cost challenges and dramatic shifts in stakeholder interactions while continuing to create value. Green hydrogen2 is likely to play a pivotal role in a carbon-free future, as its adoption will enable the decarbonization of energy-intensive industrial processes whose emissions are hard to abate through simple electrification—such as steel and cement production. However, to take advantage of the economic opportunities created by its adoption at scale, countries will need to rethink the roles they could play in a new energy landscape and define strategic industrial policies accordingly. Our research3 shows how successful industrial policies must reflect a country’s potential value chain positioning in future green hydrogen markets and elucidates macro geopolitical trends that could reshape international relations as countries compete for industrial leadership, market shares, and opportunities for job creation.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Carbon Emissions, Value Chains, Hydrogen, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. SVAC Explainer: Wartime Sexual Violence in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2020–2021

Author:: Ketaki Zodgekar
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Tigray Region is the northernmost part of Ethiopia, bordering Sudan to the west and Eritrea to the north. Struggles over national political power have been occurring in Ethiopia since 1960, when a group of government and military leaders attempted a coup against Emperor Haile Selassie. Though initially successful, this political takeover failed after a month, and the emperor remained in power until 1974, when, in the Ethiopian Revolution, he was usurped by the Derg, a military junta. After the revolution, Ethiopia experienced a devastating civil war between the Derg and anti-government rebels, which concluded in 1991 when a coalition of rebel groups, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrew the junta, establishing a federal democracy. The EPRDF had four members: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which always led the coalition, along with the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM). From 1991 onwards, the EPRDF ruled Ethiopia for 17 years, during which time the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had leadership over policy design. After widespread protests in 2018 which resulted in the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and a shifting of the EPRDF coalition in 2019, the TPLF lost their control over national politics, though they did remain in power in the Tigray Region. Ethiopia's new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, who first gained political power by coming up through EPRDF ranks, formed a new political party, the Prosperity Party, that took government from 2019 onwards.
Topic:: War, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

9. The Impacts of the Russo-Ukranian War on Latin America in the Age of Strategic Competition

Author:: Guido Torres
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: As we enter the second year of the Russo-Ukranian war, it is prudent that the foreign policy community examine the impacts of the conflict on other regions, including Latin America. Despite the distance between Latin America and Ukraine, the conflict has disrupted the region and exacerbated the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 disproportionately affected Latin America’s fragile socioeconomic, fiscal, and political situation. For example, Brazil, a major regional economic powerhouse, was one of the worst-struck countries in the region, and the pandemic significantly impacted its economy. The country’s GDP contracted by 4.1% in 2020, and unemployment reached a record high of 14.1% in the first quarter of 2021. The pandemic also impacted Brazil’s fiscal situation, with the country’s debt reaching 90% of GDP. Brazil’s downturn is not an isolated incident, albeit a microcosm of the region. In addition, the instability allowed authoritarian regimes to further consolidate control in places like Nicaragua, Venezuela, and El Salvador. For instance, leaders like El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele capitalized on the chaos of the pandemic and a desperate citizenry to strengthen his power. Furthering the impacts on domestic politics, the confluence of the pandemic and war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains, agriculture production, and energy resources. Moreover, as tensions between the West and nations such as Russia and China continue to grow, globalization is becoming increasingly divided. This will likely lead to further political turmoil and socioeconomic disparity in Latin America, which has already been compounded by the war and the lackluster COVID-19 recovery efforts. With these repercussions still lingering, a lack of economic and trade development, an intensifying energy crisis, and rampant inflation prevailing in 2023, the region’s outlook remains bleak.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Latin America

10. The Persistent Consequences of the Energy Transition in Appalachia’s Coal Country

Author:: Eleanor Krause
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The persistence and intensification of earnings, employment, and opportunity gaps across place has become an increasingly salient feature of the United States economy over the past several decades.1 This economic divergence has occurred alongside a remarkable transition away from coal-fired electricity that is expected to continue as lower-carbon energy sources become more economically viable. While essential to minimizing the damages of climate change, the shift poses significant challenges to the relatively rural and distressed communities traditionally reliant on this resource. Indeed, many historically coal-dependent communities in Central Appalachia have long been characterized by deep poverty, limited employment opportunities, and high rates of public assistance, and recurrent adverse shocks to coal employment over the past several decades have amplified many of these qualities, potentially elevating the risks associated with the energy and economic shifts ahead. How have Appalachia’s coal-dependent communities adjusted to historical and contemporary declines in demand for coal, and how do these shocks – and their consequences for the educational composition of affected communities – influence the capacity for future generations to adapt to new challenges? In this policy brief, I present estimates of how Appalachia’s coal country has adjusted to recent declines in coal mining employment (“coal shocks”), and I demonstrate how this adjustment process is, in part, dictated by the persistent consequences of historical employment shocks in Appalachia. The evidence suggests that recent coal shocks (i.e., declines in coal employment occurring between 2007 and 2017) have been relatively painful for affected communities, causing large reductions in local population sizes, declines in local employment counts, declines in earnings, and increases in the rate of government transfer receipt. All of these adjustment costs are more severe in counties with a history of “selective migration” induced by shifting employment opportunities in the 1980s. That is, the estimated effect of recent coal shocks on population sizes, employment, earnings, and transfer payments is significantly larger in counties that lost greater numbers of their college-educated adults in the 1980s thanks to historical employment shocks in proximate labor markets. The upshot is that coal-dependent communities may demonstrate little resilience to recent coal shocks in part because of the persistent consequences of historical shocks, which fundamentally altered the educational composition of affected communities. By dramatically reducing the number of college-educated individuals living in a community, adverse shocks have the capacity to put places on a pathway of decline that makes it more difficult to adapt to economic shifts in subsequent generations. These insights preview the potentially damaging implications of future contractions in the coal industry, revealing the need for greater empirical investigation of the types of policy efforts that might ameliorate the painful local adjustment costs associated with the energy transition going forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Employment, Coal, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Appalachia

11. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations and Policy Considerations in the United States

Author:: Sarah Hubbard
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) can be defined as global, digitally-native organizations which enable people to coordinate and govern shared resources and activities through the use of smart contracts on blockchains. The explosive growth of DAOs since 2020 has led to experimentation, speculation, and investment in this emerging organizational framework. There are an estimated 6,000 DAOs as of June 2022, with participation from contributors around the world and an aggregate treasury value of an estimated $25 billion. While the web3 space has been marred by scams and bad actors, there are legitimate use cases for DAOs. Early applications include focuses on fractionalized ownership and control, incentive alignment, resilient operations, and collective action. DAOs demonstrate innovative potential and are producing new forms of tax revenue and employment for the U.S. States have taken various approaches towards legislation, including establishing a DAO LLC. The U.S. government needs a comprehensive strategy for addressing DAOs as novel organizational structures to retain domestic innovation and protect consumers. Future policy solutions should consider the following: DAOs have technical and operational uniqueness that should be taken into account by legislators and regulators. The United States must provide legal clarity to retain domestic innovation. The friction of existing organizational formation should be reduced and adapted. A multi-pronged approach is needed across the federal-level, state-level, and industry self-governance practices. This report aims to serve as an accessible primer for United States policymakers to understand the unique opportunities and challenges DAOs present, and how these organizations may be addressed in the regulatory landscape of the U.S. The first section of this report establishes the societal context in which DAOs have emerged, with an emphasis on the trends in organizational frameworks and working conditions to which DAOs respond. The second section describes the underlying technical and structural components that DAOs are built upon. The third section outlines the key purposes and applications of DAOs and shares findings from case studies and semi-structured interviews with 12 DAOs and 20 DAO contributors. The final section provides an overview of existing legislation and concludes by outlining directional considerations for policymakers.
Topic:: Decentralization, Autonomy, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

12. Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China

Author:: Zichong Chen and Daniel Jacob
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions released its first publication in May 2023: a research brief titled “Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China.” The Initiative is one of five interdisciplinary research clusters funded by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University. The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements collaborates in the implementation of the Initiative. The brief summarizes research by Professor Daniel Jacob and postdoctoral fellow Zichong Chen, atmospheric scientists at Harvard University, with their colleagues. Jacob and Chen use high-resolution data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), onboard a satellite launched in 2017, to estimate national and sectoral methane emissions more accurately than has been possible in the past. They draw upon atmospheric transport models to invert the satellite observations of methane concentrations, using advanced statistical methods, and infer emissions quantities and locations from the observed atmospheric concentrations. This method has yielded generally higher estimates of emissions than in previous reports, including in the case of China. Future methane-initiative briefs will address similar research the authors and their colleagues are conducting in the United States, Latin America, North Africa, and other countries and regions. An accurate picture of aggregate and sector-level methane emissions is important to better target mitigation policies. It is hoped that the results of the research described here and in subsequent briefs will advance national efforts and international collaboration aimed at reducing methane emissions. The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with policymakers in government and key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions. Reduced methane emissions can significantly reduce, in the near term, the magnitude of climate change and its associated impacts. The Initiative’s objectives span the full range of disciplines and topics associated with this challenge. Among its objectives are to build on scientific research on measurement and attribution of emissions; understand legal, regulatory, and political opportunities and constraints to methane-emissions reductions in the United States; design policies that might best contribute to methane emissions reduction; work effectively through existing international venues, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; and define roles that business and international and multilateral organizations can play in this effort.
Topic:: Climate Change, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13. Outsiders Wanting In: Asian States and Arctic Governance

Author:: Calvin Heng and Eyck Freymann
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The strategic interests of Asian countries in the Arctic continue to grow despite the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China and India have their eye on Russia’s Arctic energy resources, and China is further seeking to leverage Russian weakness to expand its operational presence in the Arctic Ocean. Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are less prominent in Arctic regional institutions, yet they have distinctive interests in Arctic science, governance, and resources and are resuming dialogue about Arctic matters amongst themselves. This policy brief reviews the key differences in how Asian states are approaching the Arctic through a survey of their strategic documents, public statements, and diplomatic and commercial activities.
Topic:: Governance, Multilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Asia, South Korea, Singapore, and Arctic

14. The Science of Rapid Climate Change in Alaska and the Arctic: Sea Ice, Land Ice, and Sea Level

Author:: John P. Holdren
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Earth’s surface north of the Arctic Circle, which includes nearly a third of Alaska, is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average.1 Alaska as a whole is warming twice as fast as the lower 48 states.2 As is true for most of the manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, moreover, the extremes of temperature are growing faster than the averages: the highest-ever temperature north of the Arctic Circle—100.4°F—was recorded in Verkhoyansk, Siberia, in June 2020;3 Anchorage reached an all-time high of 90°F on July 4, 2019;4 and Utqiavgik, Alaska, the northernmost U.S. city, reached an all-time winter high of 40°F in December 2022.5 The reasons warming is so fast in the Far North are quite well understood scientifically. The most important factor is the ice-snow-albedo feedback, in which warming reduces the area of land and water covered by ice and snow, which means less reflectivity and more absorption of incident solar energy at the surface, hence further warming.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Sea Ice
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, Arctic, and United States of America

15. Opportunities for Multilateral Cooperation on Climate Change in the Arctic

Author:: Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Climate change is complex, multi-dimensional, and far-reaching. The impacts of climate change are not uniform, however, and few regions are currently facing the rapid and dramatic effects being experienced in the Arctic. Being a region on the frontlines of climate change with sparse populations and limited infrastructure emphasizes the importance of leveraging opportunities for collaboration and coordination. The functions of multilateral cooperation in the Arctic related to climate change are multifold, including to: Deepen and accelerate understanding, Share experiences and lessons learned, Mobilize limited resources, Coordinate responses, and Collaborate on solutions.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Arctic

16. How non-state armed groups engage in environmental protection

Author:: Jairo Munive and Finn Stepputant
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Non-state Armed Groups have a mixed - and mostly negative - impact on the environment, but there are ways in which NSAG’s engagement can have positive effects on the environment during and after armed conflict. The adoption of the UN principles for the protection of the environment in relation to armed conflict can provide an avenue for constructive engagement.
Topic:: Environment, United Nations, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. The promises and perils of law-making as the way to strengthen societal resilience

Author:: Amelie Theussen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Societal resilience is seen as a key answer to the deteriorating security situation, especially in the Baltic Sea region. States often employ new laws in an attempt to strengthen resilience, but is legislation the best way to build stronger societies? There is an underlying mismatch between the dynamism of resilience and the static nature of laws. Resilience entails the capacity to bounce back flexibly from crises. Laws should be formulated so as to nurture such flexibility. Democratic accountability might be at risk when laws are used in the quest for strengthened resilience.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Resilience, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Baltic States

18. Governing Outer Space – legal issues mounting at the final frontier

Author:: Hjalte Osborn Frandsen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In 2022, the private space firm SpaceX successfully launched 61 rockets, adding hundreds of satellites to its burgeoning, globe-spanning mega-constellation. SpaceX´s Starlink-project now comprises more than 3,000 satellites. For comparison, the European Space Agency launched six rockets in 2022 and operates less than 50 satellites in total. In the span of a few years, private space companies have dethroned nation states as the dominant actors in outer space. Today the vast majority of satellites are owned and controlled by commercial companies. During the first months of the Russian assault on Ukraine, several commercial space companies stepped in to provide vital satellite images and space-based Internet in support of the Ukrainian defense. This exemplifies the three currently dominant trends of human space activities: expansion, securitization and privatization. The global space industry is undergoing the most fundamental and swift changes since the original space race ended when Neil Armstrong placed the first boot marks on the moon in 1969. The rapid changes raise a number of serious governance issues in areas such as national security, environmental protection and the rule of law in outer space. Denmark, Europe and the international community at large all have an acute interest in insisting on space being a global commons in which conduct can and should be regulated to benefit all of humanity – not just a few profit-seeking billionaire-owned space companies. Developments in the space industry are fast and accelerating. As with other global governance issues, like climate and cyber issues, achieving global accord on new regulations for space activities will be difficult and time-consuming, so prudent policymakers should get started right away.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, Law, and Space
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. Climate change actions in conflict affected contexts

Author:: Helene Maria Kyed and Justine Chambers
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Violent conflict and state oppression in Myanmar demonstrates the importance of placing conflict analysis and people-centred approaches at the centre of international programming on climate change and environmental protection. In 2021, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the impacts of the climate crisis will be particularly pronounced in poor and conflict-affected countries. Research also identifies climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ that, in combination with socio-political factors like poverty, state incapacity and inequality, can intensify violent conflict. However, gaps remain in how to address the increase in climate change vulnerabilities in contexts with violent conflict and state oppression. This is evident in Myanmar, where a historically repressive military regime is threatening to cause longer-term ‘climate collapse’. Since a military coup in February 2021, extractive activities and war economies are destroying the natural environment and placing communities at further risk of displacement, violent persecution and food shortages. These effects of conflict are reducing local people’s capacity to adapt to climate change and threatening civil society’s efforts to protect the environment. Under such conditions, climate change programming needs to place conflict analysis at its centre stage and substitute state-centric and purely technical approaches with people-centred ones, in alignment with the localisation of aid agenda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Democratization, Environment, Natural Resources, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

20. What needs to change for green funds to be truly green

Author:: Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Green investment funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green. Green finance is playing an ever more prominent role in recent years. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds, which constitute a key pillar of green finance, saw record inflows of hundreds of billions of US-dollars in recent years, primarily by retail investors. Essentially, these ‘green’ funds are integrating environmental, social and governance criteria, such as greenhouse gas emissions, labour rights and gender diversity into their investment strategy. They claim to invest less in the stocks of firms that are highly polluting or have bad governance practices, and instead buy the shares of corporations that appear to be more sustainable. In industry and policy debates, ESG funds are often cited as advancing the promotion of sustainability and helping to address climate change. However, the ESG concept, its underlying criteria, and its potential effects are highly controversial. Many critics see ESG primarily as ‘window dressing’, with no significant positive impact – either for the environment or for investors and employees.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Gas, Capitalism, Sustainability, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Security professionals are changing how humanitarian organisations operate

Author:: Jethro Norman
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) created the first position solely dedicated to security in 1991, but for the next decade it was rare for humanitarian organisations to embed security professionals. After the 2003 Canal Hotel bombing in Baghdad in which the UN’s special representative in Iraq was killed, the United Nations Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) was established. However, attacks on aid workers increased throughout the 2000s in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. Humanitarian organisations invested more in their security in response to these threats, as well as changing norms around humanitarian liability. In 2015, in a landmark ruling, an aid worker successfully sued the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) for gross negligence. In response, donors implemented increasingly stringent insurance protocols, and the demand for humanitarian security professionals continued to grow. Today, virtually every international humanitarian organisation operating in an insecure region employs an international security professional, typically from a western military, police or private security background. Insights from long-term fieldwork with security contractors and aid workers in Sub-Saharan Africa (including Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Tanzania) shows that this has resulted in friction between the two groups, especially in relation to access and liability. In recent years, several developments have streng- thened the authority of security professionals over humanitarian staff. First, digital technologies have been increasingly used for information gathering, monitoring of staff and remote management. Second, as humanitarian security has become more structured and coordinated, new international organisations have emerged whose sole purpose is to provide security services to humanitarian clients. Whilst sometimes registered as non-profits, their function is not dissimilar to commercial private security companies, raising important questions about how the information they gather may be used beyond humanitarian purposes.
Topic:: Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Humanitarian Organizations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. What shall we do with the suspected pirates? Why piracy prosecution doesn't always work

Author:: Jessica Larsen
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In African waters, incidents of piracy still far outweigh apprehensions, leaving few suspects to prosecute. Those who are prosecuted may face either impunity or legal uncertainty, because the illegal act of piracy is difficult to prove in some cases. There are steps that the states involved in counter-piracy should take to address these challenges. Piracy has been a constant issue of concern since the early 2000s in the waters off East and West Africa, albeit with numbers of incidents fluctuating with seasons and geography. The international community has in both theatres developed a practice, where international navies patrol the waters and hand over suspects for prosecution in regional states. But bringing piracy suspects to justice faces many challenges. This policy brief points to the main issues and possible solutions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Water, Governance, Piracy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Africa

23. Greenland in the mirror of Puerto Rico

Author:: Rafael Cox Alomar
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The quest for self-determination is as critical today as it was in the aftermath of the Second World War. As was the case during the heyday of decolonization, the path to political devolution remains entangled to realpolitik. It is the geopolitical calculus of the metropolitan centers that still defines the viability and feasibility of the decolonizing formulas available to their non-sovereign territories. The options available to Greenland and Puerto Rico will no doubt reflect the new global order emerging from the ashes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the United States and Denmark (along with their NATO partners) engage in the complex task of redrawing and redefining the boundaries and security priorities of their transatlantic alliance. It is precisely against this background that the present brief offers a succinct description of Puerto Rico’s politico-constitutional status. While bound to their respective metropoles within the context of contrasting constitutional arrangements, the political and legal issues besieging Greenland and Puerto Rico are not wholly dissimilar and deserve careful attention. More specifically, the definition of free association adopted by the US House of Representatives on December 15, 2022, upon approving the 2022 Puerto Rico Status Act bill, might prove informative to policymakers in Nuuk and Copenhagen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, History, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:: North Atlantic, Denmark, Caribbean, Greenland, and Puerto Rico

24. Free Association and the United Nations

Author:: Rachael Johnstone
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Since 1945, most States, on achieving independence, seek admission to the United Nations. This is a shortcut to international recognition on the world stage and secures their statehood against future challenge. Although in theory States do not require formal recognition from other States to come into existence, it is desirable. Rather than seeking recognition and/or expensive diplomatic relations with dozens of other States, admission to the UN puts to bed any doubts about the nation’s existence as a State once and for all. Membership is available to States in Free Association (FA States). UN Members each hold a seat on the General Assembly with an equal vote (irrespective of population or economy). The General Assembly controls the UN budget and elects Member States to other major UN bodies (e.g., ECOSOC, Human Rights Council and Security Council). Membership of these bodies allows States to influence UN focus and policy. A small, new Member State may not desire or have the capacity to seek a seat on these bodies directly, but it can engage in “vote-trading” to promote its interests within the broader system. The General Assembly is also a crucial diplomatic forum in which Member States build trust and alliances with one another.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, United Nations, History, and Free Association
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

25. Climate resilience and Cook Islands' relationship of Free Association with Aotearoa / New Zealand

Author:: David J. Kilcullen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: On 1 January 2020, the Cook Islands was removed from the OECD Development Assistance Committee’s List of Official Development Assistance (ODA) Recipients. Having been assessed as a “high-income status country”, this re-classification rendered the Cook Islands ineligible for OECD development assistance. It was unfortunate timing. The Covid-19 pandemic hit a few months later and caused a significant contraction in the tourism sector on which the Cook Islands is economically dependent. The result was, by the government’s own description, a “severe recession” with a total contraction of -21.6% of GDP in 2020/ 2021. Thus, only months after being recognized as having a sufficiently high income as to no longer warrant OECD development-assistance, the Cook Islands lost nearly a quarter of its GDP. This was especially significant for a country that is particularly susceptible to climate change and weather-related hazards. The Cook Islands is made up of 15 coral atolls and volcanic islands. Over 90% of the residents of the 12 inhabited islands live within one kilometer of a coastline. In addition, its already modest population of just under 15,000 people is rapidly decreasing (down from approximately 17,500 in 2016), undermining social and economic resilience to shocks. Despite notable economic growth in the years preceding Covid-19, greater infrastructure and other investment remains essential to brace the country for future climate-related changes. A question thus arises as to the benefits of Free Association in circumstances where the former colony faces crises.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, History, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, New Zealand, and Cook Islands

26. The European Political Community: Putting politics first?

Author:: Fabrizio Tassinari
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The European Political Community (EPC) was launched in Prague on October 6th of 2022 in the presence of 44 European heads of state and government, including all 27 Member States of the EU, as well as governments of neighbouring European countries, most notably the United Kingdom, Ukraine and Turkey. The initiative came in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its stated aims was to address the shortcomings of the European institutional architecture. While the project is a direct emanation of the French government, its objectives, perspectives and potential as an intergovernmental forum for political and strategic discussions about the future of Europe remain unexplored. The gathering has already planned three future summits (in Chișinău, Moldova; Granada, Spain and the United Kingdom) but it is as yet unclear if and how the new format can contribute to the wider European security architecture in light of the war, ongoing NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden and the EU’s opt-out referendum in Denmark. This brief aims to spell out three questions surrounding the evolution of the EPC across three key dimensions that concerns its possible institutional, policy and power-related contribution to the wider European constellation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

27. Climate change, mobility and human trafficking in Ethiopia

Author:: Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Throughout history, demographic, economic, political, religious, and environmental developments have resulted in Ethiopian mobility, mainly within the country or neighbouring region, but also further afield. Although Ethiopia’s current migration rate is only about half of the sub-Saharan average of 2%, the combined effects of poverty, population growth, conflict, and climate change have led to a recent growth in international migration. Women make up half of these flows. Proximity to the Middle East has facilitated women’s migration for domestic work while simultaneously raised concern over human trafficking violations. International Human Rights and anti-trafficking organisations predict that the negative effects of climate change will increase the vulnerability to trafficking in persons, forced labour, sexual exploitation, and debt bondage. This policy brief draws on research carried out under the auspices of the collaborative ‘Governing Climate Migration’ (GCM) research programme to further explore how climate change, migration and human trafficking may interlink. It questions routine applications of the human trafficking label to irregular Ethiopian migrant domestic workers and suggests replacing it with a migration-trafficking continuum approach that takes life before, during and after migration into account.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Borders, Risk, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

28. Why adaptation projects do not stop climate-related migration

Author:: Lily Salloum Lindegaard, Nauja Kleist, Francis Jarawura, and Joseph Teye
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change constitutes a critical challenge for subsistence rain-fed agriculture in the Global South. Increasing temperatures, irregular rainfall, and dry spells have negative, sometimes devastating, consequences for rural communities. Harvest yields diminish or fail, the planting season becomes unpredictable, and the dry season may be prolonged. While subsistence farming has always been demanding in such areas, climate change amplifies these challenges. As a result, local communities draw on a range of alternative farming methods and livelihood strategies, ranging from employing different crops to seasonal or long-term migration. Migration as an adaptation strategy, however, is widely rejected by international donors, national governments and sometimes local authorities. Rather, these actors often aim to enhance and promote local agriculture or other locally based livelihoods through in-situ adaptation projects, or adapting in place. This can be through providing (or selling) inputs to increase yields, e.g. drought resistant seeds, fertilizers or pest control; promoting new farming techniques, e.g. climate smart or conservation agriculture; or improving access to key resources, for instance water access through irrigation. Affected communities are supposed to stay where they are – in other words, deal with the challenges on the ground.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Natural Resources, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Global South

29. China's response to the US tech war: The closing of detours

Author:: Yang Jiang
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In the US-China rivalry, no battle is currently more fierce than the one over technology, with both countries ramping up efforts to pursue global technological leadership. The tech war has intensified under President Joe Biden, with the US’s strangling of China’s technological bottleneck getting tighter and tighter. The US’s stated aims are protecting its national security and foreign policy interests and preventing sensitive technologies with military applications from being acquired by China. Some analysts point to Beijing’s Made in China 2025 as the trigger of the tech war because that is China’s plan to upgrade manufacturing and seek the top positions in global value chains. The US is pursuing a strategy to outcompete and outmanoeuvre China, as is stated in the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy in October 2022: “this decade will be decisive, in setting the terms of our [the US’s] competition with the PRC”. Especially in the sector of semiconductors or chips, where the West controls China’s access to the most advanced technology, US restrictions and its ability to bring its allies into line have been destructive to China’s development. On 21 May 2023, Beijing’s ban of American chipmaker Micron from critical information infrastructure in China signals a first direct retaliation from Beijing. China has also realised that some of its hitherto measures—turning to alternative sources of import, utilising policy loopholes, and sufficing with lower-level technology—are just detours. They are not long-term solutions; nor can they be the foundation of China’s national security. The US restrictions have forced China to adopt new measures to accelerate domestic innovation with more focus on basic research and market forces. How the tech war will play out has important implications for Western countries and global supply chains. This policy brief will focus on China’s responses to the US-waged tech war, specifically: What have been China’s domestic measures to respond to the tech restrictions from the US, and what is China’s potential for technological breakthrough? What have been China’s international responses, and what are China’s options for retaliation?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sanctions, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30. How to encourage private sector climate initiatives in Kenya

Author:: Judith Mulwa and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a particularly pertinent issue in Kenya because the country’s economy is highly dependent on its natural resource base (such as agriculture and fisheries), which are sensitive to temperature and rainfall variabilities. As a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kenya must work to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This requires significant financial resources. Per the UNFCCC framework, some national climate actions are not expected to receive financing from international financial sources. Therefore, the country must look for innovative ways of domestically sourcing finances for low-carbon development and climate resilience programmes. Kenya has, in this regard, set up and implemented a national climate fund for financing adaptation and mitigation projects, ideally from various sources, including the private sector. This policy brief explores the legal, price-based, property-based, and information-based incentives for private sector investment and engagement in climate adaptation and mitigation in Kenya. The analysis is based on desk research and 51 stakeholder interviews from identified private sector institutions and industries in Kenya.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

31. Power and path dependencies may weaken EU counter-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:: Jessica Larsen and Stephanie Schandorf
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In 2013, West African coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea region (extending from Senegal in the north to Angola in the south) signed the Yaoundé Code of Conduct to combat maritime crime. The code promoted a trend of increasing donor activity intended to sustain the resulting Yaoundé Architecture (which includes the code, a declaration and a memorandum of understanding between regional organisations), through capacity-building and counter-piracy operations (see Box 1). A decade later, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea grew increasingly urgent as the world’s hotspot of attacks, and questions remain about whether the Yaoundé Architecture (YA) is fit for purpose.
Topic:: Crime, Law Enforcement, Piracy, European Union, and Path Dependency
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Gulf of Guinea

32. De-escalation Efforts: What Tehran wants from a prisoner swap deal with Washington?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Waston, in a statement on August 10, 2023, affirmed that Iran has released from prison five Americans who were detained and has placed them on house arrest. US citizens Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi, and two others were released from Tehran’s notorious Evin prison to house arrest. The US official described their release as “an encouraging step” and stressed that Washigton will continue efforts to bring them “all back home in the United States.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

33. Diplomacy of Neglect: Assessing the European Union’s engagement in the Sudanese Crisis

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The European Union aims to strengthen its involvement in the Sudanese crisis. This was recently evident when Brussels welcomed a delegation of Sudanese political leaders on July 27, 2023. This effort aims to establish an active European role in the endeavors to settle the Sudanese crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, European Union, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sudan

34. Cautious Pragmatism: What is thе potential outcome of Washington's approach to thе Nigеr crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On August 8, 2023, US Sеcrеtary of Statе Antony Blinkеn announcеd that diplomacy is thе prеfеrrеd way of rеsolving thе crisis causеd by thе coup in Nigеr. Following thе coup on July 26, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan strongly condemned any effort to detain or subvert thе functioning of Nigеr's dеmocratically еlеctеd govеrnmеnt, led by President Mohamеd Bazoum. Thеsе statements reflect thе ambiguity of Washington's stance regarding thе crisis in Nigеr.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Counter-terrorism, Crisis Management, Coup, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Niger, and United States of America

35. Cluster Bombs: What is the potential impact of American weapons on Ukraine’s counteroffensive?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The US Department of Defense officially announced on July 7, 2023, that the US would provide cluster bombs to Ukraine as part of a new military assistance package to support Kyiv in its counteroffensive against Russia. Cluster munitions are weapons that consist of a container that opens in mid-air to scatter up to 600 explosive submunitions or bomblets over a wide area. Most of these weapons are known for their lack of precision guidance, meaning they are not individually directed toward specific targets. Estimates suggest that these weapons' failure rate (dud rate) during conflicts ranges from 10% to 40%, posing a significant risk to civilians, especially because they can explode later upon contact or movement.
Topic:: Weapons, Military Aid, Russia-Ukraine War, and Cluster Bombs
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

36. A Bid to Contain Pressure: What are the motives behind Iranian President's East Africa tour?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went on a trip to Africa from July 11 to 13, 2023, during which he visited Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on invitations from the leaders of the three countries, President William Ruto, Yoweri Museveni and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, respectively. Raisi led a high-level delegation including First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Health Minister Behrouz Aghaei, and Minister of Agriculture Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad, and several other high-ranking officials and businessmen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Iran, Middle East, Zimbabwe, and East Africa

37. Partnership Diversification: What are the implications of the sixth round of the Russia-GCC strategic dialogue?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Following a five-year hiatus, Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, held the sixth round of their strategic dialogue in Moscow on July 10, 2023, at a critical juncture. The meeting has several implications aligning with the Gulf’s endeavors that began in the wake of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and later took shape in the wake of the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Diversification, Dialogue, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations

38. A Surprising Shift: Is Somalia choosing Moscow over Washington?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Somali Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Jama made a surprise visit to Moscow on May 26, 2023, to meet with several Russian officials, including his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. His visit raised several questions regarding motives and implications, particularly in light of the Russian top diplomat’s statements about Russia’s readiness to supply Mogadishu with the necessary military equipment for its ongoing war against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Engagement, Al-Shabaab, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Somalia, and United States of America

39. Existing Dispute: Does the new budget set the stage for a fresh phase of conflict in Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On 12 June, 2023, Iraq's Council of Representatives approved a three-year budget (2023-2025) of 198.9 trillion dinars (USD 153 billion), including the budget for Iraq's Kurdistan region. This came around three months after the government filed the draft budget, making it the largest in Iraqi history.
Topic:: Development, Oil, Budget, Domestic Politics, Public Spending, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

40. Restraining Moscow: What are the repercussions of Wagner's rebellion for the Russo-Ukrainian war?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Russian private military contractor group Wagner, announced that his forces had crossed the Ukrainian border into the city of Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia, threatening to destroy anyone who would obstruct their path, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu if necessary. In an official speech delivered on the morning of June 24, 2023, Russian President Putin confirmed that what had happened was a stab in the back, instructing the security and military forces to neutralize the "traitors," referring to Prigozhin himself. He called on Russian security to arrest Prigozhin on charges of inciting a civil war. Wagner issued a statement in response to Putin's speech, affirming that Putin had chosen the wrong path and that Russia would soon have a new leader. In an official speech delivered on the morning of June 24, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that what had happened was a stab in the back, and instructed the security and military forces to neutralize the "traitors," referring to Prigozhin himself. He called on Russian security to arrest Prigozhin on charges of inciting a civil war. In response to Putin's speech, Wagner issued a statement affirming that Putin had chosen the wrong path and that Russia would soon have a new leader. The defection of Wagner and the involvement of its forces in the conflict have significant implications for the Russo-Ukrainian war. The actions of Wagner and the response from the Russian government signal internal divisions and potential shifts in power dynamics within Russia. The situation remains highly volatile, and the repercussions of these events on the ongoing war are yet to unfold fully.
Topic:: Wagner Group, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Yevgeny Prigozhin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

41. Preliminary Talks: Can the talks in Zanzibar lead to an agreement between Ethiopia and the Oromo Liberation Army?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Zanzibar, and Ethiopia

42. The Israeli ThreatL What is driving the renewed escalation between Iran and Azerbaijan?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Ministry of Interior, Security Agency, and Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan announced in a joint statement on Tuesday, May 16, 2023, that nine individuals were arrested on charges of planning to overthrow the government by force, assassinate prominent figures and senior Azerbaijani officials. The statement indicated that they had connections to Iranian intelligence agencies, and that the cell was composed of a person named Ruhollah Akhoundzadeh and his son Mursal, along with seven others working under his supervision. On his part, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani, rejected the accusations in a statement on May 18, denying any official or unofficial relationship between these individuals and Iran. He affirmed that imprisoning individuals on the pretext of their connection to Iran is unacceptable.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan

43. Present Challenges: Will Syria return to the Arab League fold?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On April 15, 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting that included the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. The main topic on the agenda was the region’s relations with Syria and the possibility of returning to the Arab League fold after the suspension of its membership in November 2012. The visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, on April 18, to Damascus raised the question of whether recent diplomatic movements with Syria may pave the way for attending the Arab League Summit set to be held on May 19.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, and Arab League
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

44. Messages to Washington: The significance of China's push for a new world order during President Jinping's Moscow visit

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Chinese President Xi Jinping, on March 20, 2023, arrived in Moscow on a three-day state visit to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, drawing harsh criticism from the West. Western countries consider the visit as explicit support to the Russian leader. During the visit, China and Russia signed numerous agreements to show their willingness to reinforce their bilateral relations.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Economic Cooperation, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

45. A Long Shot: Chances of reviving the JCPOA following FM’s Moscow visit

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, on March 29, 2023 led ministry officials and a member of the parliament on a visit to Moscow where he met with Russian counterpart Sergie Lavrov to discuss ways of reinforcing bilateral relations and matters of common concern.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, JCPOA, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

46. Second Meeting in Beijing: China-Facilitated Iran-Saudi diplomatic reconciliation efforts amid US apprehensions

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On April 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Saudi Arabian counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, signed a joint statement in Beijing announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries, which follows a tripartite agreement signed under China's auspices on March 10.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

47. Nuclear Threshold: Implications of Iran’s enriching uranium to 84% purity

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Bloomberg News, citing two unidentified senior diplomats, on February 19, reported that international atomic monitors, a week earlier, detected that Iran has enriched uranium to 84% purity, just below nuclear weapons-grade, a proof that Iran’s nuclear activities do pose a threat. A purity of 90% is needed to produce nuclear weapons.
Topic:: JCPOA, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

48. Macron’s Tour: A new French strategy for Africa

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: French President Macron ended a four-nation tour of Africa earlier in March, which took him to Gabon, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Hopeful of restoring France’s influence in the continent, Macron met with African presidents amid popular protests – signs of rising anti-French sentiment in parts of Francophone Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, France, and Democratic Republic of Congo

49. Intertwined Interest: What’s behind China-Ivory Coast strengthened relations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The diplomatic relation between China and Ivory Coast spans over more than four decades. Both sides have strengthened their relations in recent years as China looks to cement its presence in Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Ivory Coast

50. Facing Pressure: Iran executes former Defence Minister

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran executed on January 14, 2022, a British-Iranian national who once served as its deputy defence minister, defying calls from London and Washington for his release. Alireza Akbari was arrested in 2019 and accused of spying for Britain. He served as a defence minister between 2000 and 2005 under former President Mohammad Khatami, and he fought during the Iraq-Iran war. He also served in other high-ranking positions in the navy and the ministry of defence’s research centre, and was appointed as the general secretariat of the national security council.
Topic:: Security, Elites, and Capital Punishment
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Iran, and Middle East

51. European Mercenaries: Will Congo use Wagner in its conflict with Rwanda?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Tensions broke out between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in January 2023 after an exchange of accusations of non-compliance with their peace agreement signed in the Angolan capital Luanda in November 2022. The development came after Kinshasa announced that it uses private military firms to counter growing security threats. Kigali regarded this move as a declaration of war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Conflict, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Rwanda

52. Gas for Survival: Tackling reasons behind the Italian PM's efforts to promote relations with Libya

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni visited Libya on January 28, where she met with Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh, PM of the outgoing government of national unity. The two leaders signed a new gas deal which has proved controversial.
Topic:: Migration, Gas, Energy, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Libya, and Italy

53. Baghdad and Erbil: A difficult road to settling differences

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The relationship between Baghdad and Erbil lately has reached a dead end. The rift between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the official executive body of the autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, and the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) has, for the past few months, entered a bottleneck driven by political turmoil and rotating governments. But efforts are being made on both sides to bridge differences. On January 11, a Kurdish delegation headed by Masrour Barzani visited the central government in Baghdad to discuss a number of disputed files. The group included several senior officials: ministers for electricity and finance; chief of the cabinet office; director of the office of the region's prime minister; ministers for planning and oil; economic advisors; general counsel; director of border control; and CEO of State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO Oil).
Topic:: Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Budget, Gas, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

54. Encircling Damascus: Iran’s Foreign Minister Visits Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, has made a surprise visit to Ankara, Beirut, and Damascus, reflecting his country’s increased engagement in the region. His trip to Ankara replaced a postponed trip to Moscow, where he was set to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Engagement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

55. Diplomatic Defeat: Uncovering the low turnout to the Arab League meeting in Tripoli

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Libya’s outgoing Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, failed to host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in the capital Tripoli on January 21, 2023. The chief diplomats of most of the Arab states and the organization’s secretary-general boycotted the meeting. Representatives of only seven Arab states, including Tunisia’s and Algeria’s foreign ministers, attended the gathering, which was a diplomatic blow to the al-Dbeibah government.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Arab League, and Instability
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

56. Digital Dichotomy: Opportunities and Challenges of Digitalization in Fragile Settings

Author:: Moneera Yassien
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the implications of digitalization in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS). Digitalization has a transformative potential but simultaneously presents distinctive challenges, particularly in FCS characterized by infrastructural limitations, weak governance, and socio-economic disparities. The OECD identifies digitalisation as one of the intensifying factors for the growing inequality between FCS and the rest of the world. However, in FCS the story extends beyond inequalities between countries to inequalities within countries which are more critical for the FCS context as inequalities exacerbate fragility and conflict. This brief highlights three points. The first point explores the dual impact of digitalization on FCS business environments. Digital tools can overcome infrastructure barriers, thereby fostering economic growth and enhancing market dynamics through increased transparency. However, digital technologies create information asymmetry, resulting in widening the gap between those who can participate in the digital economy and those who are left behind, subsequently exacerbating socio-economic inequalities, fostering exploitative working conditions, and potentially escalating instability in fragile and conflict-affected regions.The second point focuses on the labour markets, where digitalization through the online gig economy can create job opportunities and improve labour mobility. However, it can also undermine labour protection and contribute to wage disparity and issues relating to workers’ rights, accentuating inequality and exclusion, particularly in FCS. The third part investigates the role of digitalization in Communications and Information Security. Digital tools can empower communities to resist oppressive regimes but can also be exploited for surveillance and censorship, fuelling conflict and exacerbating social tensions. The brief concludes with policy recommendations aimed at integrating digital inclusion principles in FCS strategies, emphasizing equitable digital initiatives, and adopting conflict-sensitive and equitable digital policies. The recommendations underscore the need for a balanced approach to digitalization, fostering innovation while providing protection from contributing to fragility and conflict.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Fragile/Failed State, Business, Digitalization, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. Promoting diaspora investment in fragile settings: The case of Somalia

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief analyses the extent to which diaspora investment can support economic development and livelihoods, with a particular focus on fragile settings. Using the case study of Somalia, the brief explores some of the main advantages and risks associated with this tool. On the one hand, diaspora investment can channel finance into productive activities in the diaspora’s country of origin, supporting the creation of revenue streams, while also generating returns for diaspora investors. On the other hand, particularly in fragile settings, these investments can also undermine social cohesion and even increase the likelihood of violent conflict, especially if they are channelled along identity lines. On the basis of this analysis, the brief offers the following recommendations to donor governments interested in promoting diaspora investment in Somalia and beyond: (i) to ensure effectiveness, donors should gather comprehensive, in-depth data on the needs and preferences of both potential investors in the diaspora and investees in the country of origin; (ii) to avoid exacerbating tensions and conflict, donors should be as inclusive and transparent as possible in their engagement with stakeholders, most notably in the selection of beneficiaries; (iii) any efforts to promote diaspora investment in fragile settings should be grounded in a thorough understanding of the specific context in which they are implemented, in order to understand both the economic and political implications of such investment.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Diaspora, Investment, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

58. The war in Ukraine: Adapting the EU’s security and defence policy

Author:: Dick Zandee and Adaja Stoetman
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Russia’s war in Ukraine is violating the rules-based international order and poses a significant threat to European security. The EU and NATO have responded by taking coordinated action. The measures taken have varied from unprecedented sanctions on Russia to assisting Ukraine with the delivery of arms and ammunition. The war in Ukraine has led to an even stronger focus on collective defence, which was already put in motion after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Furthermore, the European security architecture has witnessed a significant change with Finland (and later this year Sweden) joining the North Atlantic Alliance. At the Vilnius Summit (11-12 July 2023), NATO has taken new decisions to strengthen its deterrence and defence posture
Topic:: NATO, European Union, International Order, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

59. Unravelling Turkish involvement in the Sahel: Geopolitics and local impact

Author:: Andrew Lebovich and Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In the past decade, Turkey has significantly expanded its engagement in Africa, leading to concerns within the European Union (EU) that this influence might be used to undermine EU policy and member states. This policy brief analyses the strategic motives and evolution of Turkish involvement in the Sahel region, focusing specifically on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Drawing from interviews conducted with Sahelian and Turkish political, business, diplomatic and educational stakeholders between October and December 2022, the authors contend that Turkey’s foreign policy in the Sahel demonstrates a multifaceted approach that aims to strengthen its presence across economic, cultural, defence and development spheres. However, it is also emphasised that Turkey’s engagement in the Sahel remains relatively limited when compared to its activities in other African countries, for example Libya, Somalia and Algeria. In light of these findings, this policy brief recommends that the EU adopt a pragmatic approach, drawing lessons from Turkey’s strategy while trying to manage, and where possible benefit from, the impact of Turkish security assistance and to foster opportunities for Sahelian populations in Europe through scholarships and employment initiatives.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and Sahel

60. Sahel: Why stabilization efforts should address internal displacement

Author:: Ekaterina Golovko
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The conflict situation in the Sahel has created one of the fastest growing displacement crises in the world with more than 2.5 million people displaced over the past decade. International donors have largely dealt with the crises by supporting humanitarian efforts to provide emergency aid to IDPs. This policy brief argues that this response is important but ultimately inadequate; donors should start viewing IDPs as a key element to enable (regional) stability. Moving IDPs from the exclusive realm of humanitarians to stabilization, brings to the fore a policy tension that carries the promise a policy reconciliation. National governments in the Sahel push for the return of IDPs to their regions of origin in an effort to secure, re-populate and ‘stabilize’ abandoned territories (a effort that remains complex in a dire security context). But those international donors who do ‘stabilization’ leave IDPs completely off the radar and miss their constructive potential. This brief calls for international partners to pay greater attention to the crisis of internal displacement in the Sahel. Such policies have to make IDPs themselves one of the actors that can help bring ‘stability’ to conflict affected settings and, in that way, also speak to their (humanitarian) needs by providing long-term prospects of rebuilding their lives and livelihoods.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Displacement, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

61. Power and potential: The economics of Egyptian construction and ICT

Author:: Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Young Egyptians’ dissatisfaction with their employment prospects was a key driver of protests in 2011 and 2013. Since then, the country’s political authorities have worked hard to create job opportunities for young Egyptians by boosting growth in the construction sector (infrastructure and public works), among other things. Since the sector also generates substantial revenues for the country’s power elite, this has been a win-win strategy in the short-term. But overreliance on the construction sector has also created too many informal and unstable jobs that are a poor match for Egypt’s many well-educated graduates. Cairo’s growth strategy has not addressed some of the country’s long-standing economic problems, such as informality and a low overall employment rate. Giving the country’s promising ICT sector a boost similar to that of the construction sector to address such deficiencies and anticipate a looming debt crisis requires a paradigm shift with two elements. First, a deal between Egypt’s political authorities and the power elite that buys time in exchange for future rents. Second, facilitation of private sector dynamism through regulatory encouragement and public seed funding for new business activity.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Employment, and Construction
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

62. Shades of grey: The evolving links between the Houthi and Iran

Author:: Mona Saif
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Houthi are not an Iranian proxy in the sense of unquestioningly doing Tehran’s bidding, voluntarily or under pressure. Yet, the movement can be viewed as an informal partner of Tehran. Their relationship has evolved from a partnership of convenience into a more strategic one. Despite this evolution, the Houthi have remained autonomous with respect to their domestic constituencies, political strategy and battlefield operations. For the purpose of peacemaking in Yemen today, as well as subsequent efforts to maintain any peace, this suggests that the Houthi should be considered an autonomous, domestically legitimate (in part) and capable actor, but that Iran also needs to be consulted behind the scenes due to the growth of its relation with the Houthi.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Houthis, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Yemen

63. Getting global development back on track: Focus and start at home

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Since 2019, realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has gone from patchy to off-track as a result of Covid-19, global price shocks caused by the war in Ukraine and accelerating climate change. About 100 million people were thrown back into extreme poverty and hundreds of millions more face reduced health, livelihood and income prospects for the rest of their lives. The climate change agenda also took a backseat. Long-term global effects will be profound in terms of growing migration flows, further climate degradation and, likely, more conflict, authoritarianism and populism. Putting global development back on track requires focusing on fewer priorities rather than the entire SDG agenda, namely those with the highest negative impact on developing countries: conflict, climate change and inequality. Addressing these problems primarily requires middle- and high-income countries to reduce their contribution to climate deterioration and inequality at home, and to increase their support for conflict resolution efforts elsewhere at a faster rate. While it may seem counterintuitive, the greatest development contributions that developed countries can make lie at home.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

64. Al-Sudani’s first 100 days – Or how to keep everyone happy

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The job of an Iraqi Prime Minister is a complex balancing act on both the domestic and international fronts. To begin with, there is the challenge of managing competition between the country’s factitious elites. Then there is the unresolved tension between self-interested elites and a citizenry that has largely lost faith in its political leaders. Finally, there is the foreign policy dilemma of balancing political and economic dependence on both the US and Iran. By these standards, Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani’s first 100 days in office have provided a crash course on how to please all sides. He has allocated government positions to his supporters with gusto, provisionally left most Sadrist bastions of power in the state untouched (even though Sadrists are excluded from the government) and offered extensive ‘bread and games’ for the population by promising jobs and social security. Al-Sudani has furthermore sought to reassure opposing foreign actors through a hitherto fairly balanced foreign policy. His approach has been enabled by the broad coalition of Iraqi political elites that brought him to the premiership, along with record oil revenues that help grease the wheels of patronage politics. While structural reforms in politics, administration and economics are overdue, they will not happen because Iraq’s political leaders have no need for them in the immediate term. However, unresolved elite contention, a lack of public investment and the absence of reform mean that Iraq is likely heading for tougher times within the space of a couple of years.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Elites, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

65. Trading short-term gains for long-term costs: the Egyptian political economy under al-Sisi

Author:: Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Egypt’s political economy has been operating on the basis of three core principles over the last few decades. First, the country’s political authorities set strategic economic objectives in a top-down manner. Second, the power elite supports the political authorities and, in exchange, tightly supervises homegrown and foreign investment to generate revenues and job opportunities, as well as private benefits. Third, Egyptian citizens acquiesce, willingly or unwillingly, in this division of power that mostly benefits the political authorities and power elites in exchange for improvements in their livelihoods. Since 2014, President al-Sisi has held closely to these principles but relied increasingly on Egypt’s military networks (part of the power elite) to boost economic growth. This strategy has produced short-term gains – informal jobs and an array of consumer goods – at the expense of long-term economic prospects. In particular, the military’s economic influence has deepened some of Egypt’s structural problems: low productivity, inequality, informal unemployment and a suppressed private sector. This limits the future sustainability of the current economic model. Improving Egypt’s economic prospects requires reducing the role of the state – especially the military – in the economy in terms of decreasing the number of associated enterprises and lightening the regulatory framework. However, this is nearly impossible to realise in sectors in which the military already has a dominant profile, such as construction and extractives, because its support is essential for al-Sisi to maintain power. A more promising alternative for European policy makers to consider is influencing the Egyptian government to limit military influence in sectors with growth potential where the military is largely absent, such as manufacturing and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). A government strategy that prevents further military involvement in these sectors, crafts a regulatory framework conducive to private investment and invites foreign funding, can help Egypt realise greater economic growth and higher fiscal revenues.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Economy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

66. Turkey Earthquake: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

67. A Dead-End War: Russian Failure and Ukrainian Destruction

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: With all parties still clinging to their demands, there is no end in sight to the war: Russia wants to cement its control over four Ukrainian provinces, win recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea, and secure guarantees for Ukrainian neutrality. Ukraine wants a definitive end to hostilities, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory (including Crimea), and negotiations on its strategic future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

68. Even Chances: Defining Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:: Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

69. Erdogan wins the presidency: Causes, implications and horizons

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:: Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

70. Russia’s War Economy

Author:: András Rácz, Ole Spillner, and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Sanctions are a strong signal of Western resolve to oppose Russia’s war against Ukraine and have significantly weakened its ability to wage war. But Russia is adapting, turning its economy into a war economy, ramping up military production, and adjusting to sanctions. This Policy Brief looks at Russia’s economic adjustment with a focus on the shifting of resources to war purposes and the effect of sanctions on military production.
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

71. Into the Blue Pacific: Why the EU Should Help Island Nations Address Climate Change and Maritime Insecurity

Author:: Elisabeth Suh and Hanna Gers
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The ‘Blue Pacific’ is a vast region in the South Pacific, encompassing 30 million square kilometers, three million inhabitants and 14 nations. Its consists of thousands of islands threatened by climate change – a concern aggravated by geopolitical competition. The EU can help mitigate these challenges through capacity-building for climate adaptation and maritime security and regional consolidation. This overlaps with European strategic interests, including establishing itself as a trusted outside power.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Pacific Islands

72. Migration in the Context of Climate Foreign Policy

Author:: Kira Vinke, Hannes Einsporn, Dana Schirwon, and Mahalia Thomas
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Migration, displacement and resettlement in the context of climate change are not distant scenarios of the future, but are now materializing along increasingly severe extreme events and slow-onset degradation. In view of accelerating global warming and the danger of crossing tipping points in the Earth system, forward-looking climate foreign policy and development policy should increasingly focus on severe climate impacts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

73. Leveraging Islam and Internal Conflict: Strategies and Consequences in Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Author:: Miriam Katherine Heß
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Assessment of the president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov; the inner-Chechen conflict; and Chechen fighters on both sides in Russia’s war against Ukraine reveals how internal conflicts become crucial for international structures and how transnational dynamics – such as foreign fighter flows – pose challenges to the interplay of national and international law. By anticipating the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond the Zeitenwende in Germany and Europe, policy-makers will increase readiness and preparedness for the ongoing but also post-war period.
Topic:: Islam, Conflict, Foreign Fighters, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Central Asia

74. Toughening Financial Sanctions on Russia: Enforcing Energy Sanctions and Reducing Shadow Reserves Effectively

Author:: Guntram Wolff, Benjamin Hilgenstock, and Elina Ribakova
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Financial sanctions are key in enforcing restrictions on Russian energy exports – in particular the G7/EU oil price cap regime –, due to financial institutions’ critical role in cross-border transactions. While the energy sanctions regime is having an impact on export earnings and budget revenues, evidence for potentially widespread violations is also emerging. Moreover, favorable external dynamics have allowed Russia to accumulate substantial assets abroad – “shadow reserves” –, which need to be kept out of reach of the regime.
Topic:: Governance, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

75. Mobilizing Social Media Influencers: A European Approach to Oversight and Accountability

Author:: Paloma Muñoz Quick
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: To build a robust information space that is resilient toward the dangers of mis- and disinformation, European policy-makers must recognize the role of influencers and their messages. The EU’s Digital Services Act aims to establish accountability and transparency in online platforms. It includes civil society as an essential component of achieving that goal. Through collaborating with independent platform councils and promoting radical transparency, influencers can contribute to combating disinformation and ensuring that public values are upheld in online governance.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Social Media, Accountability, and Oversight
Political Geography:: Europe

76. Coping with Technology Sanctions in the Russian Financial Sector

Author:: Alexandra Prokopenko
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Russian financial sector has taken a double hit from sanctions – both in infrastructure (affecting financial transactions) and in technology (affecting the hardware and software). Infrastructural sanctions imposed by Western countries in reponse to the war on Ukraine (de-SWIFTing, overcompliance, and breaking of correspondent relationships) affected their operational activity. Moreover, the Russian government banned the use of foreign software and equipment imports, which has been a drag on business development. The financial sector was able to withstand the first shock. However, the most recent restrictions on access to advanced technologies, especially from the US and the EU, will lead to import substitution based on technologies of yesterday.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

77. From “Forward Presence” to “Forward Defense”: Germany Must Strengthen NATO’s Northeastern Flank in Lithuania

Author:: Aylin Matlé
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Issues of deterrence and defense along NATO’s northeastern flank have been a greater focus of NATO members since the Russian attack on Ukraine began. Particularly in the Baltic States, there is a determination to protect every inch of the Alliance’s territory against a possible Russian attack. To prevent such a scenario, NATO is making military adjustments to which Germany will have to increase its contribution.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe, Lithuania, and Germany

78. China “De-risking”: A Long Way from Political Statements to Corporate Action

Author:: Ole Spillner and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Major Western leaders have been calling for “de-risking” from China, rather than “decoupling.” But what exactly de-risking means and how it differs from decoupling, remains unclear. It is ultimately firms, not governments, driving trade and investment relations. But firms cannot account for unidentified risks by themselves. National security risks are for governments to define. Complex supply chain externalities might entail risks to production that are also difficult for firms to account for. Furthermore, firms may bet that governments will rescue them if a worst-case scenario happens, effectively socializing risks. In the EU, Germany is particularly exposed to China risk in terms of security, macroeconomic, and political exposure.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Macroeconomics, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

79. German Defense Spending: A Repeat of the Past Instead of a New Era

Author:: Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, and Sören Hellmonds
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The historic aspiration of Germany’s Zeitenwende – the new era in its foreign and security policy – will fail without the proposed funding. The growing tension between its demands for the Bundeswehr and missing resources is already driving Germany back to the old and shortsighted approach of cutting and stretching budgets and fragile procurement plans. The country needs a security decade: a ten-year systematic spending effort that closes its substantial security gap. Without sustainable funding for military security and other existential government tasks, Germany will continue to pose a risk to itself and others.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Budget, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

80. Whose Zeitenwende? Germany Cannot Meet Everyone’s Expectations

Author:: Kristi Raik and Martin Quencez
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Russia’s full-scale of invasion of Ukraine pushed Germany to fundamentally revise its foreign and security policy, including its assumptions about European security, its relations with major powers, and its role as a mediator of intra-European disputes. The Zeitenwende’s level of ambition entails a profound reckoning of the failure of past policies, and has to be both European and global. Germany bears a special responsibility for strengthening European defense vis à vis Russia, reducing Europe’s vulnerabilities vis à vis China, maintaining a strong transatlantic alliance while also preparing Europe for a possible reduced US commitment in the future, and ensuring a coherent EU.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Germany

81. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Until NATO Membership, Extending the Joint Expeditionary Force Is the Best Option

Author:: Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: There are no security “guarantees,” but NATO membership is as close as it gets – and has long proven its effectiveness in deterring Russian aggression. It is thus the only real option for Ukraine – and for wider European security. Addressing the lack of political will to recognize this, especially in Washington and Berlin, means finding an interim solution that provides credible, collective security in the meantime and fosters more durable, fairly delivered European security in the long term.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

82. Decisive but Forgotten: Germany’s Missing Technological Zeitenwende

Author:: Tim Rühlig and Bjorn Fägersten
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The digital technology transformation is a largely overlooked dimension of Zeitenwende. However, preserving national security, safeguarding core values enshrined in technology, ensuring access to critical technologies, and maintaining competitiveness need to be a policy priorities for Germany and Europe. All of these are integral elements of autonomy and sovereignty in a world increasingly characterized by great power rivalry. The looming policy decisions, however, will have divergent outcomes depending on the prevailing political paradigms.
Topic:: National Security, Politics, Science and Technology, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

83. Protecting the EU’s Submarine Cable Infrastructure: Germany’s Opportunity to Transform Vulnerability into Mutual Resilience

Author:: Jannik Hartmann
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Submarine cables handle over 95 percent of the world’s internet traffic, making them essential for everything from finance to foreign affairs. The September 2022 attack on the Nord Stream pipelines and increased Russian naval activity brought greater awareness of how European – and German – interconnectedness also brings vulnerability. The urgency of tackling this threat offers Germany an opportunity to take a structural and joined-up approach that shows it can act as a “team power.”
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, European Union, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

84. Evaluating Public Support for Chinese Vendors in Europe’s 5G Infrastructure

Author:: Tim Rühlig and Richard Q. Turcsányi
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany is considering banning equipment made by Chinese companies like tech giant Huawei – in its 5G mobile infrastructure. A revised 2021 IT Security Act failed to reduce China’s 59 percent market share. A representative opinion poll, shows only 30.8 percent of Germans want 5G cooperation with China. Across 11 European countries, skepticism is equal, with only 31.8 percent approval – though this varies greatly from country to country.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, and 5G
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

85. A More Strategic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Policy

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Cross-border investment and trade give rise to both economic gains and economic vulnerabilities. As geopolitical competition is intensifying, governments increasingly resort to restricting cross-border investment and trade. Policies are informed by a desire to limit security risks and secure technological advantages rather than pursue efficiency gains.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Strategic Competition, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Americas

86. Why the proposed Brussels buyers club to procure critical minerals is a bad idea

Author:: Cullen Hendrix
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Concerned about critical mineral supply chains and its own strategic vulnerabilities, the European Union is advancing a buyers club to procure minerals critical to the clean energy transition, such as bauxite, cobalt, lithium, and nickel. The European Union is deeply dependent on imports of both raw and processed critical minerals and materials and thus highly exposed to global price volatility. The door appears to be open for the United States or other EU trading partners and like-minded countries to join this club. Decarbonization is not the only impetus behind the proposed Brussels buyers club. Both the European Union and United States view China’s dominance of critical mineral supply chains as a national security issue, because these minerals are key inputs to modern military technology. Hendrix agrees that supply chains for critical minerals desperately need widening to meet projected global demand and tackle climate change mitigation, but he warns that a purchasers club would not be a step in the right direction. A buyers club would be prone to free riding, set up distributive conflicts within the European Union, and reduce the share of climate mitigation benefits accruing to critical mineral–producing countries, many of which are developing and middle-income economies.
Topic:: Economics, National Security, European Union, Supply Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:: China and Europe

87. Can the World Trade Organization be saved? Should it?

Author:: Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Heads of state, trade ministers, and academics have repeatedly called for reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO), the institution charged with the stewardship of the global trading system. The durability and worth of the WTO are being increasingly questioned despite the fact that by almost all objective measures, it has been a great success, with world trade growing much faster than global GDP over the last 75 years. However, past success does not guarantee future performance. This Policy Brief examines the institution’s most serious defects and the multitude of challenges it faces. It suggests the institution needs to evolve to reach broad-based international trade agreements, adding much needed new rules to the world trade rulebook and developing effective means to settle disputes that would render the rules of the system enforceable once again.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

88. The international tax agreement of 2021: Why it’s needed, what it does, and what comes next?

Author:: Kimberly Clausing
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2021, more than 135 jurisdictions agreed on transformative new international tax rules that would establish a minimum tax rate of 15 percent on multinational corporate income regardless of where it was reported. In December 2022, the European Union unanimously moved forward to implement this minimum tax, and other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, are also either implementing the tax or taking substantial steps toward implementation. In tandem, the United States should also reform its international tax system and adopt a stronger minimum tax. While the future of the international agreement is uncertain, it has important implications for the ability of governments worldwide to create tax systems that are administrable, fair, and efficient. The agreement also demonstrates important guiding principles for the future of multilateral cooperation on global collective action problems, including efforts to protect public health from future pandemics, address nuclear proliferation, and resolve territorial conflicts. US progress on international tax reform would enhance much needed international cooperation on these issues.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, European Union, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

89. Economic sanctions against Russia: How effective? How durable?

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Economic sanctions by Western democracies against Russia have not stopped the war and attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Together with continued economic and military support for Ukraine, however, sanctions are blocking Russian president Vladimir Putin from achieving his territorial objectives. Sanctions have contributed to a sharp compression of Russian imports; forced Russia’s military and industry to source from more costly and inefficient suppliers at home and abroad; and slowly begun to squeeze Russian government finances. The G7 countries must sustain and augment their efforts, including by confiscating frozen reserves of the Central Bank of Russia to help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. G7 policymakers need to derive lessons from the current crisis about the utility of sanctions in conflicts between major powers. Maintaining coherent and coordinated sanctions against large and powerful target countries is critical for the effectiveness and durability of the policy. Deploying sanctions against such rivals also requires a long-term commitment to the implementation and enforcement of the trade and finance restrictions. Sanctions impose costs on both the target country and those imposing the sanctions, so Western policymakers need to offset those costs via domestic support or tax relief to sustain political support over time for sanctions in big power conflicts.
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

90. Multilateral development banks are key to unlocking low-carbon investments in developing economies

Author:: Steven Fries
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the next three decades, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), and especially middle-income countries, are projected to account for much of the growth in global economic activity and energy use. While a decisive move to low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency would advance both their development goals and a stable climate, the countries have yet to fully tap this opportunity. The multilateral development banks (MDBs) are in a unique position to help lower barriers to low-carbon investments in EMDEs and unlock these sustainable development opportunities. Their differentiating governance, financial and technical capabilities, and financing instruments would enable MDBs to support the necessary business environment and energy reforms and to cofinance low-carbon and energy efficiency investments alongside other investors to reduce and manage risks.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Multilateralism, Investment, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

91. Will China's impending overhaul of its financial regulatory system make a difference?

Author:: Martin Chorzempa and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's reshuffle of its financial supervisory architecture announced in March, like previous changes, appears incremental rather than radical. It will not, however, resolve the main challenge hobbling China’s financial system, which is not linked to specific choices of supervisory architecture but rather to the unfinished transition from a state-directed to a market-based financial system and the way the Chinese Communist Party's pervasive role creates obstacles to good corporate governance of individual financial firms and to the independence of supervisory authorities. Too often, political authorities and sometimes the supervisors themselves intervene directly in financial firms’ decisions to allocate capital and credit, occasionally resulting in failures of risk control and risk management. The authors argue that Chinese reformers should aim at a clearer and more rigorous division of responsibilities, in which financial firms manage financial opportunities and risks, and supervisors are exclusively focused on their respective public policy mandates.
Topic:: Economics, Regulation, Finance, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

92. Non-economic loss and damage: closing the knowledge gap

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Climate-related loss and damage is escalating, with many countries experiencing new forms of climate impact, of increasing intensity. The focus until now has been on calculating the economic repercussions of climate risk. Its wider impacts and resulting hidden costs of climate change — such as loss of cultural heritage — are less understood and harder to quantify. This knowledge gap on non-economic loss and damage, which is largely due to limited coordination around research and sparse evidence originating from the global South, urgently needs addressing. This briefing proposes a comprehensive approach for building the evidence base on non-economic loss and damage, particularly the creation of a Loss and Damage Research Observatory. This online platform will lay the foundations for a collaborative South–South–North community of practitioners, ultimately leading to informed policy on this critical area of climate action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Displacement, Conservation, Indigenous, Resilience, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. Scaling up locally led adaptation in Bangladesh: three action areas

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Although highly climate vulnerable, Bangladesh in South Asia is known as a pioneer of climate change adaptation. Recent national policies have recognised the vital importance of community-based and locally led adaptation (LLA). Where LLA interventions have been used by international and national nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), they have proven to be both effective and widely accepted by local communities. Yet major gaps remain in implementing LLA nationally due to legislative, administrative and conceptual limitations. Meeting Bangladesh’s ambitious national targets will require better coordination within government and with NGOs, so that each can benefit from the other. Building on recent examples, this briefing showcases existing interventions that are replicable and scalable and presents three key action areas requiring further government support. The lessons are also relevant to LLA practitioners in Bangladesh and other Least Developed Countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Local, Community, Adaptation, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

94. How Monarchies End

Author:: Stephen Grand
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “How Monarchies End”, Atlantic Council’s Nonresident Senior Fellow Stephen R. Grand flips the analytical script on the spate of notable publications covering “how democracies die.” Grand examines what happens when autocratic rule corrodes and what pushes it to ultimately crumble. Under what circumstances do kings and queens, emperors and caliphs, cease to rule — either because their throne is transformed into a more ceremonial post or because they lose power entirely? For the eight remaining Arab monarchs, the downfall of their former global peers offer critical insights and parallels. The issue brief examines these topics and provides strategies for managing challenges to power, as well as a series of lessons for Arab monarchs to consider.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Monarchy, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

95. China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Dale Aluf
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa,” Aluf analyzes China’s campaign to make countries in the region more dependent on Chinese networks, while reducing its own dependence on foreign cables. For a country that seeks to alter the internet’s physical form and influence digital behavior while exerting supreme control over information flows, China’s growing presence in the Middle East and North Africa’s cable industry is significant because Beijing has the power to shape the route of global internet traffic by determining when, where, and how to build cables.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Science and Technology, Partnerships, and Innovation
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

96. Holding the Islamic Republic of Iran accountable for atrocity crimes

Author:: Celeste Kmiotek, Alana Mitias, and Nushin Sarkarati
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With little to no prospect for accountability within Iran’s domestic courts, victims and survivors of serious violations of international law are turning toward an increasing number of foreign jurisdictions—most commonly in Europe and North America, but also in Latin America, Africa, and other regions—to pursue justice for human rights violations carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Under the principle of universal jurisdiction, certain domestic justice systems allow prosecutions in national courts for crimes committed abroad, regardless of the victim’s or perpetrator’s nationality. Universal jurisdiction stems from the concept that certain crimes are of such gravity that they harm the international community as a whole, so national courts outside the country where the violations took place may prosecute them to protect the international order. Although the crimes subject to universal jurisdiction provisions differ by state, they generally include crimes against humanity, torture, war crimes, and genocide. Limitations on universal jurisdiction also vary between states, however, as do the processes for filing complaints and procedures for investigations, trials, and appeals. As was shown by the trial and conviction of Hamid Noury in Sweden for his involvement in the massacre of Iranian political prisoners in 1988, national prosecutions of international crimes can be a fruitful avenue to justice for victims of the Islamic Republic. To this end, the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Litigation Project has compiled a guide to aid practitioners and independent investigators in navigating the legal systems of European states with the highest likelihood of prosecuting Iranian human rights violators. Focusing on five states—France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland—this manual outlines the crimes and violations subject to universal jurisdiction, best practices for investigating and documenting crimes, and processes for requesting investigations and participating in prosecutions as a victim, witness, or NGO. For information that is beyond the scope of this manual, the annex includes printed resources to consult and organizations to contact for additional assistance.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Rule of Law, Accountability, Norms, Atrocities, Resilience, and Society
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

97. Harnessing allied space capabilities

Author:: Robert Murray, Tiffany Vora, and Nicholas Eftimiades
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The United States’ vast network of alliances and partnerships offers a competitive advantage—this is especially evident in outer space. Often characterized as a global commons, space holds value for all humankind across commercial, exploration, and security vectors. As technological advancements trigger a proliferation in spacefaring nations, the United States and its allies and partners are confronted with new challenges to and opportunities for collective action. This series examines how US space strategy can recognize the comparative advantages of allies and partners in space and best harness allied capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Science and Technology, Space, Institutions, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, Canada, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

98. Integrating US and allied capabilities to ensure security in space

Author:: Nicholas Eftimiades
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Over the last two decades, the world entered a new paradigm in the use of space, namely the introduction of highly capable small satellites, just tens or hundreds of kilograms in size. This paradigm has forever changed how countries will employ space capabilities to achieve economic, scientific, and national security interests. As is so often the case, the telltale signs of this global paradigm shift were obvious to more than just a few individuals or industries. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate began exploring the use of small satellites in the 1990s. The Air Force also established the Operationally Responsive Space program in 2007, which explored the potential use of small satellites. However, both research efforts had no impact on the US Department of Defense’s (DOD’s) satellite acquisition programs. The advancement of small satellites was largely driven by universities and small commercial start-up companies.1 The introduction of commercial and government small satellites has democratized space for states and even individuals. Space remote sensing and communications satellites, once the exclusive domain of the United States and Soviet Union, can now provide space-based services to anyone with a credit card. Eighty-eight countries currently operate satellites, and the next decade will likely see the launch of tens of thousands of new satellites.2 Commercial and government small satellites have changed outer space into a more contested, congested, and competitive environment. The United States has shared space data with its allies since the dawn of the space age.3 Yet it also has a history of operating independently in space. Other domains of warfare and defense policy are more closely integrated between the United States and its allies and partners. The United States has military alliances with dozens of countries and strategic partnerships with many more.4 In recent years, there have been calls to coordinate with, or even integrate allied space capabilities into US national security space strategy and plans. In this regard, the US government has made significant advances. However, much work needs to be done. There is pressure on the United States to act quickly to increase national security space cooperation and integration, driven by rapidly increasing global capabilities and expanding threats from hostile nations and orbital debris. This paper examines the potential strategic benefits to US national security of harnessing allied space capabilities and the current efforts to do so, as well as barriers to achieving success. The paper identifies pathways forward for cooperating with allies and strategic partners on their emerging space capabilities and the potential of integrating US and allied capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, European Union, and Space
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

99. Beyond launch: Harnessing allied space capabilities for exploration purposes

Author:: Tiffany Vora
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The “United States Space Priorities Framework,” released in December 2021, confirmed the White House’s commitment to American leadership in space.1 Space activities deliver immense benefits to humankind. For example, satellite imaging alone is crucial for improvements in daily life such as weather monitoring as well as for grand challenges like the fight against climate change. Such breakthrough discoveries in space pave the way for innovation and new economies on Earth. Exploration is at the cutting edge of this process: it expands humankind’s knowledge of the universe, transforming the unknown into the supremely challenging, expensive, risky, and promising. US allies and partners accelerate this transformation via scientific and technical achievements as well as processes, relationships, and a shared vision for space exploration. By integrating these allied capabilities, the United States and its allies and partners set the stage for safe and prosperous space geopolitics and economy in the decades to come. However, harnessing the capabilities of US allies and partners for space exploration is complex, requiring the balance of relatively short-term progress with far-horizon strategy. Space exploration has changed since the US-Soviet space race of the 1960s. In today’s rapidly evolving technological and geopolitical environment, it is unclear whether the processes, relationships, and vision that previously enabled allied cooperation in space, epitomized by the International Space Station (ISS), will keep pace. Here, China is viewed as the preeminent competitor for exploration goals and capabilities—as well as the major competitor for long-term leadership in space.2 This development drives fears of space militarization and weaponization, prompting protectionist legislation, investment screening, and industrial policies that can disrupt collaboration among the United States and its key allies and partners.3 Further complication stems from the rise of commercial space, with opportunities and challenges due to the decentralization, democratization, and demonetization of technologies for robotic and crewed space exploration. This paper serves as a primer for current US space exploration goals and capabilities that will be critical to achieving them. It highlights arenas where US allies and partners are strongly positioned to jointly accelerate space exploration while also benefitting life on Earth. This paper concludes with recommended actions—gleaned from interviews with international experts in space exploration—for the US government as well as allied and partner governments to increase the number and impact of global stakeholders in space exploration, to remove friction in collaboration, and to guide the future of space toward democratic values.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Partnerships, and Space
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

100. The future of women in India: Barriers, facilitators and opportunities

Author:: Amita Vyas, Misha Iqbal, Capucine Querenet, Harris Samad, and Irfan Nooruddin
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The barriers South Asian women face in the workforce are deep and intersecting, including but not limited to: accessing digital technology; disruptions to supply chains; the dual burden of managing eldercare and childcare; limited physical and mental health services; and the increased risk of gender-based violence (GBV). These are key obstacles to women’s labor force participation, and all were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a joint report published by the International Finance Corporation and the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women), 35 percent of women entrepreneurs in India reported that they have suffered declining revenues due to COVID-19, and 72 percent of female small business owners in Sri Lanka reported experiencing difficulties accessing their usual financial services. The same report found that female job-loss rates resulting from COVID-19 are about 1.8 times higher than male job-loss rates globally. Women’s participation and advancement in the labor force not only benefits women themselves, but also men, families, communities, and the entire nation. Despite this, women’s work is a minefield of visible and invisible barriers, rooted in inequality, patriarchy, and privilege. Global corporations, civil society, governments, and businesses across the South Asian region and the globe are committed and poised to support women’s advancement in the workplace, and are well positioned to accelerate and complement these efforts through direct investments and advocacy. But, first, two key areas must be explored, and they serve as the foci for this issue brief: Raise awareness of key economic challenges facing women across the region. Explore best practices and opportunities for addressing these pressing challenges.
Topic:: Education, Women, Resilience, and Society
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

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