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322. The European Political Community from Paris to Chisinau: an idea taking shape?
- Author:
- Florent Marciacq, Denis Cenusa, and Ioannis Armakolas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The European Political Community (EPC), an idea put forward by President Macron of France, echoing a similar proposal made by former Italian PM Enrico Letta, was launched and gained traction in response to the challenge posed by Russia’s war against Ukraine. The imperative of focusing on security and forming a common front against Russian aggression served as a key rationale for expanding the EPC beyond a value-based community of like-minded democratic states. The first EPC Summit was held in Prague in October 2022. A successful gathering of 44 states, including countries with still-strong ties to Russia, it gave the sense that a common pan-European front was gradually forming against Moscow. Seven priority areas were identified: energy security, critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, youth, migration, regional cooperation in the Caucasus and Black Sea area, and resilience funding. The second Summit took place on 1st June 2023 near Chisinau, the capital of the Republic of Moldova, a small landlocked state in Eastern Europe which only recently achieved candidate status for EU accession. The Summit was a strong signal of support for Moldova’s efforts to consolidate its escape from Russia’s stranglehold, but also for its neighbour, embattled Ukraine. Discussions in Chisinau addressed energy security, transport networks and connectivity, cybersecurity and the integrity of critical infrastructure. Strategic cooperation was another prominent topic. Leaders reiterated the importance of restoring peace by providing increased military support to Ukraine, but also combating hybrid threats in Moldova through the recently launched EU Partnership Mission (EUPAM). At present, the EPC format seems to be pursuing two separate agendas: structuring the EU’s relations with its neighbours, and rallying the European family against Russia. Articulating and balancing these objectives properly will not be easy, and would seem to require the removal of stumbling blocks and a clarification of the level of institutionalisation at which the EPC would be required to operate. Thus, as the EPC Summit moves next to Spain and then to the United Kingdom, there is still no comprehensive consensus as to what the overall purpose of the EPC is, and whether and to what extent it should be institutionalised, which is to say endowed with a secretariat, separate funding and a certain degree of functional autonomy. A number of influential countries, including France and the U.K., see the EPC’s greatest advantage as residing in its informality and lack of institutionalisation. However, it could be argued that for the EPC’s strategic engagement in security, energy and connectivity to be successful, some level of institutionalisation and greater involvement by the EU will be required. At the same time, for the EPC to maintain its added value, it will need to preserve significant pockets of informality and flexibility of process.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, European Union, Energy, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Europe
323. Turkey’s new Cabinet: intellectuals and ‘men of state’ as Erdoğan’s operatives – Evangelos Areteos
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- “Erdoğanism” has emerged as the dominant trend in Turkey’s political evolution. Intellectuals as men of state predominate among Erdoğan’s high-ranking civil servants. The shaping and management of narratives are the key factors behind Erdoğan’s success. The new Cabinet will guide Turkey towards the fulfillment of the “Century of Türkiye” through a combination of soft and hard power.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
324. 187.6 km to Europe: from Sfax to Lampedusa and the new ‘migration crisis’ in the Central Mediterranean
- Author:
- Angeliki Dimitriadi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Tunisia is the main departure point to Italy in 2023 for West Africans and sub-Saharan Africans. Socio-economic conditions, food shortages, and poor governance are key factors in Tunisian migration. The absence of an asylum and migration system is a critical factor in the transit of asylum seekers to Europe. Comparisons with the 2011 crisis reveal lessons learnt, with Italy taking a more proactive stance. Europe is divided but also united: divided in its member states’ initial reactions; united in its persistent deployment of a toolbox that has yielded only limited results to date.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugees, Borders, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Italy, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Central Mediterranean
325. The EU and Gaza 2023: Terrorism is fought with Counter-terrorism, not Wars against Civilians
- Author:
- Zafiris Tzannatos
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Despite several attempts for decades to reach at a political solution between Israel and Palestine, Netanyahu and his supporters offer nothing but permanent oppression while Hamas has resorted to terror. Each party refers to their rights: The right to defend versus the right to self-determination. This attitude has resulted in an escalation of tensions over time that led to a massive loss of life since October 7, 2023, when Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and Israeli forces have so far killed 11,000 mostly civilians in Gaza. If there is a solution, it can be none other than a political one agreed between the two parties and be supported by an evenhanded approach by the international community within the confines of international law.
- Topic:
- International Law, European Union, Counter-terrorism, Civilians, Hamas, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
326. Climate adaptation: The race to cool down Europe’s cities
- Author:
- Filipe Ataíde Lampe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Europe’s cities are heating up at a record-breaking pace. Cooling them down will require further anchoring of nature-based solutions into urban development. The EU can help cities adapt to the effects of the climate crisis, but this will require ambitious and urgent actions. As the number of heatwaves increases across Europe, urban citizens’ life and well-being are particularly at risk. The Union has promoted concrete measures to increase green spaces in cities, but there is more the EU can do, both as a facilitator and coordinator of urban adaptation, including: Mainstream green urban planning across the EU. Launch an EU-wide assessment of environmental equality in urban settings. Link EU funds to environmental equality. Make private adaptation financing transparent. Make urban climate adaptation a strategic foresight priority. Bring the green urban agenda forward on a global scale. The record-breaking summers of tomorrow require more ambitious urban solutions. While Europe’s cities are still relatively cool today, a long adaptation path is necessary to make them liveable and resilient for the future.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Transparency, Cities, and Adaptation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
327. Advancing military mobility in Europe: An uphill battle
- Author:
- Mihai Sebastian Chihaia
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has put military mobility on top of the EU and NATO agendas. The return of traditional military threats and a renewed interest in territorial defence call for greater attempts to eliminate obstacles preventing armed forces from swiftly moving across EU borders. This Policy Brief maps the actions taken at the EU level to develop military mobility over the past years, with emphasis on the EU Action Plan 2.0. It identifies and analyses current EU objectives, outlines key challenges, and provides recommendations to enhance military mobility in Europe. Several challenges are analysed by the author, which should be urgently addressed by the EU and the member states, especially in relation to the Action Plan 2.0. These include limited funding for dual-use transport infrastructure projects at the EU level, administrative and regulatory barriers, and the lack of political will in the member states to enhance military mobility. Furthermore, the paper provides a SWOT Analysis of military mobility in Europe and the following recommendations are put forward: The commitment to advancing military mobility needs to be long-term. Military mobility needs to be complemented by a civilian dimension. EU member states should urgently prioritise developing military mobility plans. Undergo a lessons-learned process from the movement of military equipment in the context of EU and allies’ support to Ukraine. Regions and cities’ network of exchanges at the European level should include discussions on funding and dual-use infrastructure. Consider setting up an EU-NATO Centre of Excellence dedicated to military mobility in Europe.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
328. How the EU and US can advance the green transition along with energy and resource security
- Author:
- Annika Hedberg and Olga Khakova
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- The benefits of enhanced transatlantic cooperation on the green agenda are immense — and waiting to be seized. At the Ministerial Meeting in Sweden in May, the EU and US reiterated their commitment for collaboration. While progress on the EU-US Trade & Technology Council’s (TTC) green agenda has been slow, it is now time to implement this commitment. This Policy Brief provides recommendations for the TTC for turning shared principles into joint action, with a focus on the following three areas: 1. Aligning climate and sustainability ambitions with security and geoeconomic goals; 2. Building on the power of technologies and developing common standards for the green transition and energy and resource security; 3. Ensuring access to resources needed for the green transition. In conclusion, the Paper calls for the TTC to assist the EU and the US in stepping up their joint efforts in addressing environmental challenges as well as enhancing climate action, resource and energy security through trade and technology solutions. It recognises the role the platform should play in opening the transatlantic market for products and services needed to accelerate the green transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Natural Resources, European Union, Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
329. Reflections on Victim-Centered Accountability in Ukraine
- Author:
- Kelli Muddell and Anna Myriam Roccatello
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- Since Russian invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, the world has witnessed innumerable war crimes and other human rights violations, including indiscriminate attacks against civilians, summary executions, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), unlawful detentions, and forced deportation. In response, officials in Ukraine and members of the international community have launched multiple—and unprecedently expansive—efforts to investigate and prosecute these atrocities. Most, however, narrowly focus on criminal prosecution and often overlook the immediate needs and perspectives of victims. This paper examines the various actions that have been taken or are under consideration to investigate and prosecute war crimes and other human rights violations in Ukraine. It explores the myriad challenges they face and how tools from the field of transitional justice can be applied in tandem to deliver justice and reparation to victims and lay the foundation for a more inclusive and democratic Ukraine. The paper makes the case that criminal accountability is but one dimension of justice. For Ukrainians most acutely affected by the war, such as victims of torture and SGBV, as well as broad sectors of the civilian population whose lives have been upended and who now find themselves in desperate need, justice in fact entails a number of remedies including humanitarian assistance based on acknowledgment and repair. The authors further argue that the ongoing initiatives to investigate crimes committed in the war offer an opportunity. Specifically, the vast amount of documentation that government, civil society, and international actors have been gathering for use as evidence in criminal proceedings can be harnessed to advance other justice-related objectives. For instance, this information could serve a truth-seeking process that aims to establish a victim-centered historical record of the war and could inform the design of a more coordinated and forward-looking assistance program, including a much-needed reparations program.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Peace, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Truth and Reconciliation, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
330. ASEAN’s Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis
- Author:
- Ikumo Isono and Satoru Kumagai
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The war between Russia and Ukraine since February 2022 has triggered renewed concerns about global economic decoupling. Although the face-to-face meeting between the United States and China leaders in November 2022 agreed to continue the dialogue, it is premature to assert that progress has begun in the direction of avoiding decoupling. We used the geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM) to examine the possible economic impacts of global economic decoupling on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We define decoupling as policy changes that raise barriers to trade in goods and services and firms’ responses to these changes. If policy decoupling occurs despite the efforts of economic agents, the global economy is negatively affected. ASEAN has a relative advantage through positive trade diversion effects if it does not join any of the groups. Adherence to a rules-based international trade order will ultimately benefit ASEAN Member States and people. ASEAN should demonstrate ASEAN centrality and show the world its efforts to avoid decoupling. It should also avoid participating in decoupling if it occurs.
- Topic:
- Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, and Connectivity
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
331. Reframing of Global Strategies and Regional Cooperation Pathways for an Inclusive Net-Zero Strategy in the Energy Transition Framework
- Author:
- Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Dongmei Chen, Alin Halimaussadiah, and Vida Hardjono
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global net-zero economy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, ASEAN, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
332. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0
- Author:
- Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, and Keita Oikawa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a land-linked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Simulation
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
333. Facilitating Global Trade and Investment and Leveraging Value Added in Downstream Industries
- Author:
- Raihan M. Ramadhan and Pyan Amin Muchtar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Despite facing global uncertainties, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic stability, supported by strong responses in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as robust domestic supply chains. By using its natural resources and following the global trend of green industries, Indonesia aims to become a key player in the global renewable energy market. Sound infrastructure is one of the key requirements to attract high-profile investments, but Indonesia struggles with poor and unequal infrastructure. Cumbersome bureaucracy and restrictiveness towards services trade also hinder the nation from reaching its potential. Strengthening physical, human, and institutional infrastructure will help the country secure investments and boost trade.
- Topic:
- Investment, Trade, Industry, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
334. Redefining Indonesia’s Digital Economy
- Author:
- Militcyano Samuel Sapulette and Pyan Amin Muchtar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Indonesian digital economy is the largest and most attractive investment destination amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS). The sector has grown more than fourfold in the last 4 years and has supported other sectors. Amid the exponential growth, digital businesses are facing what is called a ‘tech winter’ in which start-ups are likely to experience slowdowns or even bankruptcy. In addition, although the digital transformation helps businesses improve productivity and drive economic growth, it has consequences for employment and wages, particularly for less skilled workers. While the potential of the digital economy must be continuously harnessed, some key initiatives need to be implemented to mitigate its negative effects.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Investment, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
335. The Global Economic Outlook and the State of Indonesia
- Author:
- Ivana Markus and Pyan Amin Muchtar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The global economy is facing a perfect storm as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, prolonged geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, and tightening monetary policy. A darkening future has been projected and the worst is yet to come. Amid global uncertainty, governments have become less aggressive in their budget spending, while high inflation has led many central banks to tighten their monetary policy. Furthermore, the pandemic has left widespread scarring effects, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, particularly on vulnerable groups. Global challenges and lower economic growth of the major economies will also affect Indonesia’s economic conditions, as the country may experience slower growth as a spillover from its major trading partners. It is important for the world and Indonesia to address these challenges, particularly the scarring effects, through multilateral solidarity and better maintenance of prudent fiscal policy.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
336. ASEAN Digital Community 2040
- Author:
- Lili Yan Ing and Ivana Markus
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Digital transformation (DX) is one of the most crucial innovations to have changed modern life over the last decade. The number of annual installations of industrial robots worldwide has more than doubled. Technological revolutions have led to unprecedented changes in what and how we trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on track to grow its digital community, with a rising number of internet users and greater internet penetration. However, one of the main concerns in the growing DX era is the digital divide within and across countries including in ASEAN, which is reflected in the gaps in internet speed, usage, and technology production amongst ASEAN Member States. Other challenges in DX are privacy, cybersecurity, and competition concerns. The ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 could address several DX challenges to move towards the vision of a thriving ASEAN Digital Community by 2040 through implementing ASEAN commitments, improving the quality of key digital enablers for digital technology adoption, enhancing countries’ preparedness for digital transformation, and improving the quality of privacy and competition laws to address the costs and risks of DX.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Innovation, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
337. Structural Transformation and the Global Production Value Chain: Potential Impact of the Cambodia-Republic of Korea FTA on Cambodia
- Author:
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Vutha Hing
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy based on the impact of the CKFTA in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It summarises the key results of the CKFTA study that examined the impact of the CKFTA on the Cambodian economy – specifically quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and structural transformation of the economy in the global and regional value chains. The policy brief also highlights the key benefits of the CKFTA to the Cambodian economy.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, Trade, and Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Cambodia
338. Understanding the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement: A Means to Support ASEAN Integration
- Author:
- Mima Sefrina
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the importance of digital technologies in the economy, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services. Recognising the importance of digital technologies for economic recovery, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders signed the Bandar Seri Begawan Roadmap in 2021, which laid the foundation for the integration of the ASEAN digital economy in three phases – recovery, implementation, and transformation – and affirmed their interest in the establishment of a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The DEFA aims to deepen existing digital economy cooperation and ensure the interoperability of digital economy systems. The formulation and signing of the DEFA will require the provision of flexible timelines and technical assistance, as the ASEAN Digital Integration Index shows that ASEAN is still in the early stages of digital economy development and that ASEAN Member States are at different levels of readiness for digital economy integration.
- Topic:
- Governance, Regulation, Digital Economy, Regional Integration, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
339. Fostering ASEAN’s Digital Future through Cybersecurity Policies and Human Empowerment
- Author:
- Michelle Chandra Kasih
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The adoption of advanced technology comes with the risk of cyberattacks. Despite the remarkable prospects of the digital economy, the cost of cyberattacks has reached millions of United States (US) dollars and is projected to increase. Investment is needed to provide cybersecurity to help secure the growth of the digital and sustainable economy and anticipate more advanced attacks. As investment in cybersecurity has started to grow in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), challenges are present in the intangible form of inexistent or strict policies, skill shortages, and insufficient public awareness, which can halt the effectiveness of such investment. This policy brief proposes three policy recommendations to ensure successful investment in cybersecurity: Ensure that cybersecurity policies and legal frameworks are not underdeveloped or overly restrictive. Support small businesses in earning customer trust through cost-effective guidelines. Incentivise and maintain partnerships for education, research, and capacity building with moral and ethical education for future experts. Raise cyber hygiene and establish integrative reporting platforms that help people identify and detect cyber risk.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
340. Development of the Blue Economy in Viet Nam
- Author:
- Vo Tri Thanh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Viet Nam is exploring various models to promote long-term economic growth and sustainable development, including the blue economy. Viet Nam’s policy documents have no formal definition of the marine economy or the newer concept of the blue economy. However, the policy documents have increasingly captured the essence of the blue economy, especially related to sustainable development. While lacking frequent updates and sufficient scope, the available statistics show the importance of the marine economy in the country. Viet Nam has various advantages for blue economy development, including high levels of sea traffic, a large sea area, a long coastline, and abundant marine resources. New opportunities for blue economy development can arise from consumers’ attention to sustainable development, improvement of the related legal framework, and cooperation with partners and foreign investors. However, Viet Nam needs to improve the awareness of local authorities and people, strengthen institutions for blue economy development, and upgrade the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters and climate change at sea, including via international cooperation.
- Topic:
- Governance, Regulation, Sustainability, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam and Southeast Asia