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1552. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2001
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.7 percent in July. The composite indexes and their components suggest that economic conditions may be improving relative to the first quarter of this year.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1553. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2001
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.8 percent in June. The outlook for the U.S. economy remains fragile despite recent gains in the leading index. However, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic conditions have improved relative to the end of 2000.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1554. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2001
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- New York, NY, June 20, 2001 - The Conference Board today announced that the leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the period of slow growth in the U.S. economy will continue in the next few months.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1555. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2001
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to suggest slow growth through the summer of 2001.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1556. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2001
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest slow growth until late in the second quarter of this year.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1557. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2001
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show not only that there is no sign of a recession looming on the horizon, but that economic activity continues to grow, although more moderately.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1558. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2001
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.8 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show that the pace of economic activity is moderating, with no clear sign of a recession looming on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1559. Inequality, Growth and Poverty in the Era of Liberalization and Globalization
- Author:
- Julius Court and Giovanni Andrea Cornia
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Eradicating poverty has become the international community's number one development objective. The overriding target—endorsed at the recent United Nations Millennium Summit by virtually all world leaders—is to reduce the incidence of income-poverty in developing countries from 30 percent to 15 percent between 1990 and 2015. The problem is that that further progress has stalled and the number of people living in poverty has remained at around 1.2 billion people—a fifth of the world's population.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Poverty
1560. Access to Land and Land Policy Reforms
- Author:
- Alaine de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Who should have access to land? What is the optimum definition of property rights and use rights in each particular context? Is government intervention justified to influence who has access to land and under what conditions? These questions remain, in most developing countries, highly contentious. It is indeed the case that land is all too often misallocated among potential users and worked under conditions of property or user rights that create perverse incentives. As a consequence, investments to enhance productivity are postponed, and responses to market incentives are weakened; many poor rural households are unable to gain sufficient (or any) access to land when this could be their best option out of poverty; land remains under-used and often idle side-by-side with unsatisfied demands for access to land; land is frequently abused by current users, jeopardizing sustainability; and violence over land rights and land use is all too frequent. With population growth and increasing market integration for the products of the land, these problems tend to become more acute rather than the reverse. As a result, rising pressures to correct these situations have led many countries to reopen the question of access to land and land policy reforms. While large scale expropriative and redistributive land reforms are generally no longer compatible with current political realities, there exist many alternative forms of property and use rights that offer policy instruments to alter the conditions of access to land and land use. A rich agenda of land policy interventions thus exists to alter who has access to land and under what conditions for the purposes of increasing efficiency, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and achieving political stability.Historically, the most glamorous path of access to land has been through statemanaged coercive land reform. In most situations, however, this is not the dominant way land was accessed by current users and, in the future, this will increasingly be the case. Most of the land in use has been accessed through private transfers, community membership, direct appropriation, and market transactions. There are also new types of state-managed programmes of access to land that do not rely on coercion. For governments and development agents (NGOs, bi-lateral and international development agencies), the rapid decline in opportunities to access land through coercive land reform should thus not be seen as the end of the role of the state and development agents in promoting and altering access to land. The following paths of access to land in formal or informal, and in collective or individualized ownership can, in particular, be explored (Figure 1): (1) Intra-family transfers such as inheritances, inter-vivo transfers, and allocation of plots to specific family members; (2) access through community membership and informal land markets; (3) access through land sales markets; and (4) access through specific non-coercive policy interventions such colonization schemes, decollectivization and devolution, and land market-assisted land reform. Access to land in use can also be achieved through land rental markets (informal loans, land rental contracts) originating in any of these forms of land ownership. Each of these paths of access to land has, in turn, implications for the way land is used. Each can also be the object of policy interventions to alter these implications of land use. The focus of this policy brief is to explore each of these paths and analyse how to enhance their roles in helping increase efficiency, reduce poverty, increase equality, enhance sustainability, and achieve political stability.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
1561. An Emerging Populist Threat?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On May 14, Jackson Diehl, the deputy foreign editor of the Washington Post, raised an intriguing question in an op-ed for that newspaper: Is Latin America about to “drift back toward its one-time status as semi-hostile territory for the United States”? Some of the evidence he cited was certainly enough to give pause. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, that country’s former Marxist president—voted out of office in 1990—seemed poised to finally regain power later this year. In Peru, Alan García, the leftist-populist windbag—the consummate Latin demagogue, almost a caricature of the type—who drove his country to the verge of collapse in the 1980s, has reemerged as a presidential possibility in a runoff scheduled for June 3. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perennial standard-bearer of the Left, is leading in the polls for next year’s presidential race. “Even in El Salvador,” Diehl writes, President Bush “may see the election of former FMLN guerrillas.” As to Venezuela, the machinations of its president, Hugo Chávez, hardly require comment; he makes no secret of the fact that his principal foreign policy objective is to forge a new, worldwide, anti-U.S. alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Populism, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
1562. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and London
1563. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1564. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
- Abstract:
- The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1565. Israel's Major Economic Challenge: Closing the Gap in the Field of Business Economics
- Author:
- Manfred Gerstenfeld
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Why is it that Israel's per capita GNP still lags substantially behind that of the leading countries of the world? Why is it likely to take decades for the Israeli economy to catch up? This is while the Israeli papers are full of news about very promising high-tech start-ups, and we even hear occasionally about payments of billions of dollars by major foreign firms to acquire Israeli businesses which were founded a few years ago and have at most several hundred employees.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
1566. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
1567. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
1568. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Canada
1569. Iran — Investor Inhibitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
1570. Mexico — Overheating Arguments
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
1571. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
1572. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
1573. International — Capital Flight
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
1574. International -- World Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
- Topic:
- Economics and Markets
1575. United States — Economic Propects
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1576. OECD — Inflation Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
1577. International: Techno-Stock Troubles
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
1578. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- East Asia
1579. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
1580. East Europe—Bullish Markets
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
1581. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, and Hong Kong
1582. Hong Kong Update: Summer 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Michael M.Y. Suen, and Eric Bjornlund
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Sir Winston Churchill once said, “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of the point.” Churchill's statement in 1944 underlines the determination of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government to encourage voters to turn out in record numbers for this September's Legislative Council ( LegCo) elections.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
1583. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Hong Kong
1584. Gas For Oil Markets
- Author:
- Koji Morita
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1585. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism
- Author:
- Chen Yixin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
1586. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1587. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1588. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1589. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
1590. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1591. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1592. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1593. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1594. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1595. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1596. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1597. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
1598. Defense Monitor: NMD Update: The Real World Intrudes
- Author:
- Colonel Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- IN AN EARLIER DEFENSE MONITOR(Volume XXIX, Issue 1, 2000), we reported on the status of the National Missile Defense program (NMD). At that time the success rate of NMD was 50%, although even the October 2, 1999 success was qualified because the kill vehicle first homed on the single decoy until, at the last moment, it finally detected its true target nearby.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
1599. Defense Monitor: Landmines Remain Issue in Korea
- Author:
- Rachel Stohl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Three years ago the international community joined forces to ban landmines. While the majority of the countries of the world worked to reach an agreement, several countries remained opposed to the effort. Nonetheless, today the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines has been signed by 137 countries and ratified by 95. The Treaty entered into force in March 1999, becoming binding international law more quickly than any treaty in history.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Ottawa
1600. Defense Monitor: The NPT Review — Last Chance?
- Author:
- Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Just five years ago the United States led a strong global effort to achieve indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970 which was due to expire on its 25th anniversary in April, 1995. U.S. leaders exerted substantial diplomatic pressure on nations less than enthusiastic about extending the NPT regime in order to ensure perpetuation of this critically important element of the global arms control structure, one very much in U.S. security interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States