Content Type: Policy Brief / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Economics

1501. Turkey's Bold Step Into the Future: Will the EU Meet the Challenge?

Author:: Adam S. Albion
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The triumph of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey's November 3 national election represents a significant opportunity to demonstrate both to the West and the Muslim world that it is possible for a democratic, Islamic party to effectively lead a modern secular state. Such a demonstration of the compatibility of Islam and democracy could produce a catalytic and strategically important effect among moderate Muslims throughout the world. The AKP seems to have recognized the importance of this opportunity by pledging to continue with much-needed political and economic reforms and EU integration efforts. The EU and the West must not let this opportunity pass them by; they must continue to encourage Turkey on its path to economic and political reform by establishing a concrete timeline towards EU membership and by helping Turkey to overcome its current financial crisis. Rejection by the West at this critical juncture could have very damaging effects, not only for Turkey, but for the viability of moderate Islamic parties throughout the Muslim world.
Topic:: Economics and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

1502. Russia's Maternal and Infant Health Crisis: Socio-Economic Implications and the Path Forward

Author:: Stephen M. Massey
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Today, fewer than one in three Russian newborns is healthy, disease rates among Russian children are surging, and shrinking access to quality family planning and prenatal care has worsened the state of women's reproductive health across Russia. The health of Russia's infants and children is especially significant given the country's shrinking population and the mounting problems of infectious disease, rural poverty, illegal narcotics, and alcohol abuse – all contributing factors to poor birth outcomes. The long-term economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious limiting factor to Russia's emergence as a strong economic partner and international actor. Many infant deaths and childhood illnesses could be prevented with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to quality care, and reform of Russia's healthcare sector – each of which is too costly for Russia to finance on its own. Untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

1503. Ukraine and the West: Policies for Progress

Author:: Oleksandr Pavliuk and John E. Tedstrom
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: A limited window of opportunity has opened to advance democratization, the rule of law, and market economics in Ukraine. This unique situation is the result of economic growth since 2000, strong voter support for reformers in the March 2002 parliamentary elections, and a rearrangement of the strategic landscape since September 11, including positive shifts in Western relations with Russia. How Ukrainian leaders make use of this opportunity will have serious implications for Ukraine's integration with European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. To achieve success, Ukraine will have to deliver on substantive domestic reforms and demonstrate a genuine openness to integration. Leadership from the West is equally imperative; clear indications of the West's desire to see Ukraine succeed at home and in European integration will have a strong positive influence at the grassroots, which will in turn be decisive in the 2004 presidential elections. By contrast, if the West disengages now or fails to formulate a clear concept of its relations with Ukraine, voters will be less likely to support presidential candidates who advocate a European choice and the domestic change it requires. As a result, the likelihood that non-reformers will prevail in the 2004 presidential elections would increase, thereby jeopardizing Ukraine's long-term stability and its contributions to regional and global security.
Topic:: NATO, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

1504. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:: Robert Orttung
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

1505. Governing Globalization: Issues and Institutions

Author:: Deepak Nayyar and Julius Court
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: It is now more than fifty years since the United Nations system and the Bretton Woods institutions were created. However, the world has changed dramatically during the second half of the twentieth century. The technological revolution in transport and communications has eroded the barriers of distance and time. National economies have become ever more closely integrated through cross-border flows of trade, investment and finance. In the political realm, communism has collapsed and capitalism has emerged triumphant. The context has obviously changed. But thinking about development is also very different. And there is now a myriad of new actors—from transnational firms to NGO—participating in the global economy and polity.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Migration, and United Nations

1506. Civil Society and the OECD - update November 2002

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: The OECD recognises the valuable contribution that civil society can make to the public policy-making process, and attaches great importance to the Organisation's own consultation and dialogue with civil society organisations (CSOs). This continuing dialogue builds trust in public institutions and promotes public understanding of the benefits and challenges of global economic and social change.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization

1507. Territorial Review on Helsinki, 2002

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: The on-going structuring of the Greater Helsinki Region (GHR) should be encouraged by the central government. Managing the growth of the Helsinki region is crucial to avoid urban sprawl and the waste of resources, especially in the long run. With priorities for the Greater Helsinki Region identified, there is room to negotiate a general agreement between the central government and municipalities of the GHR. This agreement should receive large publicity and raise a debate in Parliament as the goal is to reassess both the role and the dependence of Helsinki upon the rest of the country, i.e. how can Finland develop as a whole by making better use of the motor, Helsinki.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

1508. Measuring the Non-Observed Economy

Author:: Derek Blades and David Roberts
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: Strictly speaking, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only a measure of economic activity, but in practice it is often used to compare the relative wellbeing of countries as well as their overall economic performance. To measure the latter, users normally look at the rates of growth of GDP, while for comparing relative wellbeing the levels of GDP percapita are used. The absolute level of GDP is also used for calculating policy-relevant indicators such as the ratio of government deficit to GDP, the ratio of R expenditure to GDP and the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to GDP.
Topic:: Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:: Russia

1509. Measuring Student Knowledge and Skills: The PISA 2000 Experience

Author:: Andreas Schleicher and Claudia Tamassia
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: How well do school systems perform in providing young people with a solid foundation of knowledge and skills, and in preparing them for life and learning beyond school? International comparisons of the outcomes of education systems have in the past been elusive. While it has been possible to compare basic structural characteristics of educational programmes and qualifications across countries, such as their entry requirements, their labour-market destination or typical patterns of student participation (see OECD, 1999b), there are no agreed standards that would allow to compare the level of content and quality of the underlying educational activities and services. It is thus difficult to make inferences regarding the knowledge and skills individuals have actually attained from such comparisons. Moreover, knowledge and skills are acquired not just through formal education but also, and increasingly, through formal and informal learning outside regular educational programmes. However, since 1997 governments of the OECD have been working on establishing a comparative framework to assess how well their education systems meet core objectives. The result has been the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the most comprehensive and rigorous international effort to date to assess learning outcomes and to identify the policy levers that may help improving the performance of education systems.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1510. Purchasing Power Parities - Measurement and Uses

Author:: Paul Schreyer and Francette Koechlin
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: How does one compare economic data between countries that is expressed in units of national currency? And in particular, how should measures of production and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) be converted into a common unit? One answer to this question is to use market exchange rates. While straightforward, this turns out to be an unsatisfactory solution for many purposes – primarily because exchange rates reflect so many more influences than the direct price comparisons that are required to make volume comparisons. Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) provide such a price comparison and this is the rationale for the work of the OECD and other international organisations in this field (see chart 1). The OECD publishes new sets of benchmark PPPs every three years, drawing on detailed international price comparisons. Every time a new set of benchmark PPPs is released, this also gives rise to a new set of international comparisons of levels of GDP and economic welfare.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1511. Creation of the Euro Area: Implications for Economic Statistics

Author:: Paul Schreyer
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: A major event in early 2002 was the arrival of the euro banknotes and coins and the withdrawal of the existing twelve national currencies from circulation. The event has influenced every citizen in the euro area and is clearly a historic change. It heralds a new phase in forging an “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”. In economic terms, however, the introduction in January 1999 of the single currency after determining the irrevocably fixed exchange rates of the national currencies with the euro was a more important event. It meant that decisions on monetary policy moved from national central banks to the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. This Statistics Brief highlights some of the consequences for economic statistics of the creation of the euro area.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

1512. China — Securities Opening

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued rules on June 3 outlining the participation of foreign firms in fund management and securities business. Issued earlier than expected, the rules re-state concessions made in the trade and investment agreement China signed with the United States in November 1999. Modernisation and liberalisation of the sector is a prerequisite to channelling more of China's 1 trillion dollars of private savings to equity investment.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and China

1513. International — Auto Consolidation

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

1514. International — Weak Dollar

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

1515. East Asia: Currency Cooperation

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Former IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer expressed support for regional currency arrangements in a speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on May 21. East Asian nations continue to discuss swap arrangements and other forms of cooperation in the hope of defending local currencies. Fischer endorsed the swap plans while throwing critical light on currency 'management' schemes. Such schemes could result in perverse consequences for regional economies.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Hong Kong

1516. United States — First-Quarter Surge

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: First-quarter GDP grew by 5.8%, the US government announced on Friday, 26 April 2002. The high growth figure will provide sustenance for optimists and help support high stock market valuations. However, the contrast with high-profile corporate earnings disappointments, together with a closer look at sources of demand, suggests a far weaker performance in the rest of 2002 and in 2003.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1517. International — Global Economy

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

1518. International — Pension Funding

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece is on policy options for pension funding from an intergenerational risk-sharing perspective. Demographic and business-cycle trends point to a shortfall in pension provision for retiring generations over the medium term.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

1519. European Union — Insecure Recovery

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the outlook for euro-area economic performance. Despite some indications of improvements in the global and euro-area economies, it is too early to assume that these signify a lasting recovery.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

1520. International — Steel Fortress

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The United States on March 5 announced tariffs on the vast majority of US steel imports. Despite rumours that he would impose moderate duties, US President Bush levied 30% tariffs on the types of steel accounting for about three-quarters of steel imports. Given that these duties follow hundreds of anti-dumping duties imposed on steel products over the past three years, the decision means that virtually no foreign steel will be sold in the United States. It will also have a host of unforeseen international consequences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

1521. International — Market Screening

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The largest US-based pension fund last week listed 13 emerging markets that its fund managers will be allowed to invest in. Investment firms appointed by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) will actively manage up to one billion dollars in equity investments in 13 countries and unwind CalPERS' equity positions in markets outside them. As a large institutional investor, CalPERS' decisions have an important signalling role for a variety of institutional funds.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1522. United States/European Union — WTO Sanctions

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: US trade officials said last week that EU estimates of damages arising from US export subsidies were exaggerated. EU trade officials have asked the WTO to approve 4 billion dollars worth of trade sanctions against the United States, after the latter lost an appeal before the WTO on the tax treatment of foreign-source income — judged to be illegal export subsidies. Washington must amend its tax laws or face the prospect of retaliatory trade restrictions.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Washington

1523. United States — Productivity Surprise

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The government announced yesterday that productivity increased at a 3.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2001. The figure, previously available in its component form, has been interpreted as evidence of underlying improvement in productivity in the post-1995 period. Sustainability of productivity growth determines the reliability of fiscal forecasts, growth, inflation and unemployment.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

1524. European Union — ECB Policy

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the ECB's monetary and communication policy. The Governing Council of the ECB has appeared fairly unmoved either by widespread criticism of its communication policy or by growing pressure for lower interest rates. The ECB has no choice but to remain committed to its price stability mandate, despite the change in economic climate. However, in doing so, it remains vulnerable to the dilemmas posed by the combination of strong independence and a narrow mandate.
Topic:: Economics and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

1525. International — Socially Responsible Investment

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the impact of strong growth and low volatility in socially responsible investment. Current trends suggest that fund managers and stock index compilers will introduce more socially responsible investment products in 2002. Of all the developments within the SRI (socially responsible investment) industry the high persistency rates of social investors stand out. If the growth of this asset class continues and if financial returns continue to be deprioritised among investors, gradual changes in the style and approach of corporate boards of directors, operations and accounting and disclosure will occur.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance

1526. Corruption and Globalization

Author:: Shang-Jin Wei
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: At least since the Asian financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has, from time to time, included transparency and anti-corruption measures as part of the conditions for countries to borrow its funds. Because of this, it has been criticized as having overstepped its mandate, or even having made crises worse in countries the IMF is supposed to help.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, and Third World
Political Geography:: Asia

1527. Options for Stabilization Policy: A New Analysis of Choices Confronting the Fed

Author:: William T. Dickens, George A. Akerlof, and George L. Perry
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: One of the most important choices any president-elect must make is how to organize and staff the National Security Council (NSC). Chief executives from John Fitzgerald Kennedy to William Jefferson Clinton have found their foreign policy held hostage to the management choices they made between election and inauguration.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1528. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey In The Twenty-First Century

Author:: Niyazi B. Gunay and Ismail Cem
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 28, 2001, His Excellency Ismail Cem, foreign minister of Turkey, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and helping Turkey to improve relations simultaneously with the Arabs and Israel. Turkey's relations with the European Union are progressing favorably; EU membership is a goal, but not an obsession for Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

1529. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt

Author:: Amy W. Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

1530. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

1531. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:: Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

1532. Step Up U.S. Involvement In Turkish Economic Crisis

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's economic near-meltdown last week — its second financial crisis in three months — was precipitated by political problems, not by narrowly economic issues. Until the political problems are addressed, the prospects for any new economic package will be questionable. With Turkish leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both seemingly floundering, Turkey likely would welcome suggestions on how to proceed, and the United States would do well to send a special high-level representative to Ankara for several days, as a source of informal advice and as a powerful symbol of U.S. support.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

1533. Bahrain's National Charter And Political Reform In The Gulf

Author:: Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Bahraini Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa announced January 23 that a national referendum will be held February 14-15 on a National Charter, under which the lower house of a national assembly would be elected in 2004. Sheikh Hamad's reformist moves are the latest example of a trend in the Gulf kingdoms toward the establishment of representative institutions. However, Bahrain's proposed reforms are unlikely to be sufficiently far-reaching to address the political and economic discontent among Bahrain's Shia majority.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Bahrain

1534. Syria Under Bashar Al-Asad: The Domestic Scene And The 'Chinese Model' Of Reform

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This is the first of two PolicyWatch pieces about Syria under Bashar al-Asad. This article examines the domestic situation in Syria; the next article will look at Syrian foreign policy.On January 11, a petition signed by a thousand Syrian intellectuals appeared in the Lebanese press demanding — inter alia — freedom of expression, release of political prisoners, and an end to martial law in place since 1963. A similar such petition, published in September with ninety-nine signers, has evidently sparked a broader movement. And on January 20, the first-ever elections for many positions within Bashar al-Asad's Baath Party will be held.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Syria

1535. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2001

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 1.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in December.The increase in the leading index in December is the largest gain since February of 1996. With this month's gain, the leading index has increased for three consecutive months bringing the index level above the pre-recession peak.The leading index continues to be driven by the expansionary monetary policy initiatives of the Federal Reserve. This is further strengthened by a rebound in the employment and expectations components in recent months.The coincident index's gain this month is the first in five months. This, coupled with a robust leading index, indicates that the economy, barring any unexpected shock, is gathering momentum.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1536. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2001

Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.7 percent in November. Gains in the financial, housing and expectations components propelled the leading index up in November for a second consecutive month. Should this pattern in the leading index continue, an economic recovery in the first half of next year may be possible. The coincident index continued to weaken as industrial production declined in thirteen of the last fourteen months while nonagricultural employees declined in six of the last eight months. Compared to the coincident index's average decline of 3.3 percent in the previous six recessions, the current decline has been relatively shallow. To date, the coincident index has declined by only 1.4 percent from its peak of 117.1 in December 2000.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1537. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2001

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3 percent in October.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1538. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2001

Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in September. The composite indexes and their components suggest that the widespread weakness in the U.S. economy is becoming deeper.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1539. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2001

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index remained flat, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in August. The composite indexes and their components suggest weakening conditions in the U.S. economy going into the end of the third quarter, just prior to the attack on September 11, 2001.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1540. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2001

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.7 percent in July. The composite indexes and their components suggest that economic conditions may be improving relative to the first quarter of this year.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1541. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2001

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.8 percent in June. The outlook for the U.S. economy remains fragile despite recent gains in the leading index. However, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic conditions have improved relative to the end of 2000.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1542. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2001

Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: New York, NY, June 20, 2001 - The Conference Board today announced that the leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the period of slow growth in the U.S. economy will continue in the next few months.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

1543. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2001

Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to suggest slow growth through the summer of 2001.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1544. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2001

Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest slow growth until late in the second quarter of this year.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1545. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2001

Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show not only that there is no sign of a recession looming on the horizon, but that economic activity continues to grow, although more moderately.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1546. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2001

Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.8 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show that the pace of economic activity is moderating, with no clear sign of a recession looming on the horizon.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1547. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond

Author:: C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and London

1548. Changing Terms of Trade: Managing the New Transatlantic Economy

Author:: David L. Aaron and Donald L. Guertin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The economic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU) is in the midst of a significant transition. In the past, the dominant element of that relationship was trade. This was only natural, given their large share of the global trading system: the United States generates 19 percent of world trade, and the European Union 20 percent. Moreover, the United States is the EU's largest trading partner, while the EU is the single largest importer into the United States and the second largest market for U.S. exports. But in recent years, several new elements have become more prominent in the transatlantic economic relationship, bringing with them both challenges and opportunities.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

1549. Inequality, Growth and Poverty in the Era of Liberalization and Globalization

Author:: Julius Court and Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Eradicating poverty has become the international community's number one development objective. The overriding target—endorsed at the recent United Nations Millennium Summit by virtually all world leaders—is to reduce the incidence of income-poverty in developing countries from 30 percent to 15 percent between 1990 and 2015. The problem is that that further progress has stalled and the number of people living in poverty has remained at around 1.2 billion people—a fifth of the world's population.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Poverty

1550. Access to Land and Land Policy Reforms

Author:: Alaine de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Who should have access to land? What is the optimum definition of property rights and use rights in each particular context? Is government intervention justified to influence who has access to land and under what conditions? These questions remain, in most developing countries, highly contentious. It is indeed the case that land is all too often misallocated among potential users and worked under conditions of property or user rights that create perverse incentives. As a consequence, investments to enhance productivity are postponed, and responses to market incentives are weakened; many poor rural households are unable to gain sufficient (or any) access to land when this could be their best option out of poverty; land remains under-used and often idle side-by-side with unsatisfied demands for access to land; land is frequently abused by current users, jeopardizing sustainability; and violence over land rights and land use is all too frequent. With population growth and increasing market integration for the products of the land, these problems tend to become more acute rather than the reverse. As a result, rising pressures to correct these situations have led many countries to reopen the question of access to land and land policy reforms. While large scale expropriative and redistributive land reforms are generally no longer compatible with current political realities, there exist many alternative forms of property and use rights that offer policy instruments to alter the conditions of access to land and land use. A rich agenda of land policy interventions thus exists to alter who has access to land and under what conditions for the purposes of increasing efficiency, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and achieving political stability.Historically, the most glamorous path of access to land has been through statemanaged coercive land reform. In most situations, however, this is not the dominant way land was accessed by current users and, in the future, this will increasingly be the case. Most of the land in use has been accessed through private transfers, community membership, direct appropriation, and market transactions. There are also new types of state-managed programmes of access to land that do not rely on coercion. For governments and development agents (NGOs, bi-lateral and international development agencies), the rapid decline in opportunities to access land through coercive land reform should thus not be seen as the end of the role of the state and development agents in promoting and altering access to land. The following paths of access to land in formal or informal, and in collective or individualized ownership can, in particular, be explored (Figure 1): (1) Intra-family transfers such as inheritances, inter-vivo transfers, and allocation of plots to specific family members; (2) access through community membership and informal land markets; (3) access through land sales markets; and (4) access through specific non-coercive policy interventions such colonization schemes, decollectivization and devolution, and land market-assisted land reform. Access to land in use can also be achieved through land rental markets (informal loans, land rental contracts) originating in any of these forms of land ownership. Each of these paths of access to land has, in turn, implications for the way land is used. Each can also be the object of policy interventions to alter these implications of land use. The focus of this policy brief is to explore each of these paths and analyse how to enhance their roles in helping increase efficiency, reduce poverty, increase equality, enhance sustainability, and achieve political stability.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

1551. An Emerging Populist Threat?

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: On May 14, Jackson Diehl, the deputy foreign editor of the Washington Post, raised an intriguing question in an op-ed for that newspaper: Is Latin America about to “drift back toward its one-time status as semi-hostile territory for the United States”? Some of the evidence he cited was certainly enough to give pause. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, that country’s former Marxist president—voted out of office in 1990—seemed poised to finally regain power later this year. In Peru, Alan García, the leftist-populist windbag—the consummate Latin demagogue, almost a caricature of the type—who drove his country to the verge of collapse in the 1980s, has reemerged as a presidential possibility in a runoff scheduled for June 3. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the perennial standard-bearer of the Left, is leading in the polls for next year’s presidential race. “Even in El Salvador,” Diehl writes, President Bush “may see the election of former FMLN guerrillas.” As to Venezuela, the machinations of its president, Hugo Chávez, hardly require comment; he makes no secret of the fact that his principal foreign policy objective is to forge a new, worldwide, anti-U.S. alliance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Populism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

1552. Trade in Goods and Services: Statistical Trends and Measurement Challenges

Author:: Andreas Lindner, Bill Cave, Lydia Deloumeaux, and Joscelyn Magdeleine
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: International trade statistics play a vital part in OECD's monitoring, analysis and projections of macroeconomic developments in individual economies and the world economy. In response to these needs, OECD's Secretariat manages three trade in goods and services databases of which a very large merchandise trade database.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1553. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Argentina, South America, and Chile

1554. APEC — Shanghai Accord

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Shanghai and Asia

1555. United States — Fiscal Fallout

Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The president this week signed into law a 40 billion dollar emergency appropriations package in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks. The package forms part of considerable planned spending increases, which in combination with expected tax cuts, will result in the country's fiscal position deteriorating significantly. This will have important implications for Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and long-term global interest rates.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

1556. Mercosur/European Union — Tariff Talks

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The outlook for trade ties between the EU and Mercosur. EU-Mercosur trade negotiations earlier this month gave a vigorous push to commercial negotiations between the two regions. The EU presented a detailed proposal for liberalising EU-Mercosur trade during the next ten years. Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur have now reached a more advanced stage than the talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
Topic:: Economics and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

1557. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

1558. United States — Downturn Dilemmas

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Despite the continuing fragility of the economy, prompt policy action and the resilience of the US consumer are likely to prevent a full-blown recession, thereby shaping the probable path of the US economic downturn. Therefore, the risk of negative balance sheets and potential inflationary problems could arise from too rapid a recovery.
Topic:: Economics and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

1559. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: South America

1560. International — Weather Derivatives

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Weather derivatives trading is undergoing exponential growth. The current size of the weather derivatives market is 8 billion dollars, and it is expected to grow to at least 300 billion dollars within a few years. The opportunity to reduce exposure to natural risks will be exploited by large corporate groups and, eventually, smaller players too. It is important for the future development of the weather market that players have confidence in their own ability to determine fair prices, and that of the market to deliver these. Such confidence will encourage liquidity in the market from the end-users. However, traditional derivatives exchanges may find it difficult to obtain volume (and hence liquidity) in weather markets.
Topic:: Economics and Science and Technology

1561. Japan — LDP Prognosis

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Japan and East Asia

1562. India — Arms Scandal

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1563. Japan — Monetary Easing

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan and East Asia

1564. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:: Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

1565. Hong Kong Update: Summer 2000

Author:: Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Michael M.Y. Suen, and Eric Bjornlund
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Sir Winston Churchill once said, “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper—no amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of the point.” Churchill's statement in 1944 underlines the determination of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government to encourage voters to turn out in record numbers for this September's Legislative Council ( LegCo) elections.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Israel and Hong Kong

1566. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000

Author:: Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Israel and Hong Kong

1567. Gas For Oil Markets

Author:: Koji Morita
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

1568. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism

Author:: Chen Yixin
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Shanghai

1569. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000

Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1570. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000

Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1571. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000

Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1572. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000

Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy

1573. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000

Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1574. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000

Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1575. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000

Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1576. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000

Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1577. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000

Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1578. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000

Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1579. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000

Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1580. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000

Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1581. Defense Monitor: NMD Update: The Real World Intrudes

Author:: Colonel Daniel Smith
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: IN AN EARLIER DEFENSE MONITOR(Volume XXIX, Issue 1, 2000), we reported on the status of the National Missile Defense program (NMD). At that time the success rate of NMD was 50%, although even the October 2, 1999 success was qualified because the kill vehicle first homed on the single decoy until, at the last moment, it finally detected its true target nearby.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics

1582. Defense Monitor: Landmines Remain Issue in Korea

Author:: Rachel Stohl
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: Three years ago the international community joined forces to ban landmines. While the majority of the countries of the world worked to reach an agreement, several countries remained opposed to the effort. Nonetheless, today the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines has been signed by 137 countries and ratified by 95. The Treaty entered into force in March 1999, becoming binding international law more quickly than any treaty in history.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Ottawa

1583. Defense Monitor: The NPT Review — Last Chance?

Author:: Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: Just five years ago the United States led a strong global effort to achieve indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970 which was due to expire on its 25th anniversary in April, 1995. U.S. leaders exerted substantial diplomatic pressure on nations less than enthusiastic about extending the NPT regime in order to ensure perpetuation of this critically important element of the global arms control structure, one very much in U.S. security interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1584. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000

Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

1585. Israel's Major Economic Challenge: Closing the Gap in the Field of Business Economics

Author:: Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Why is it that Israel's per capita GNP still lags substantially behind that of the leading countries of the world? Why is it likely to take decades for the Israeli economy to catch up? This is while the Israeli papers are full of news about very promising high-tech start-ups, and we even hear occasionally about payments of billions of dollars by major foreign firms to acquire Israeli businesses which were founded a few years ago and have at most several hundred employees.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1586. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

1587. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

1588. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Canada

1589. Iran — Investor Inhibitions

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1590. Mexico — Overheating Arguments

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

1591. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1592. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

1593. International — Capital Flight

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World

1594. International -- World Economic Propects

Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
Topic:: Economics and Markets

1595. United States — Economic Propects

Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

1596. OECD — Inflation Prospects

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Canada

1597. International: Techno-Stock Troubles

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Europe

1598. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: East Asia

1599. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

1600. East Europe—Bullish Markets

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
Topic:: Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS