Content Type: Policy Brief / Publication Year: within 10 Years

3101. National Minority Capital: Introducing the New Concept

Author:: Zora Popova
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:: The aim of this issue brief is to present the novel concept of national minority capital and to define it against the background of minority and social capital studies. The concept is based on analysis of empirical evidence within the frameworks of past ECMI research projects and the conceptual models designed for their purposes. It sits at the intersection of regional development studies, minority studies and social capital theory, which helps it to offer an alternative perspective and inspire further interdisciplinary academic research and debates on the topic. Although the model and the theory are only at their initial stage, the discourse that they introduce can help policy and decision makers in their strategic planning. National minority capital can become an asset and economic advantage to states but only if they can manage diversity so that individuals belonging to minority communities feel motivated to offer their cultural competences to the benefit of the multicultural societies to which they belong.
Topic:: Governance, Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Identity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3102. European Union-Western Balkans: for a revised membership negotiation framework

Author:: Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Whilst the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 opened up European prospects for the Western Balkans, the agenda that was promoted then has hardly been completed to date. These countries have experienced worrying democratic regression in a serious demographic and economic situation which is playing into the hands of re-emerging powers. The re-engagement of the European Union with the Berlin Process and the six flagship initiatives on the part of the Commission, approved in 2018 is positive, but is now seen to be lacking. Divisions are still deep, and reconciliation is waning. Given the fragile stability of these countries, which are now being wooed by third parties, the time has come for a new approach. Economic and political re-engagement, including the launch of membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, but based on a new framework, is vital for the very security of Europe.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Regional Integration, Negotiation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

3103. Money Wise: Improving How EU Funds Support Migration and Integration Policy Objectives

Author:: Hanne Beirens and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The 2015–16 European migration crisis put unprecedented strain on EU and national migration systems, and exposed the limits of EU funding mechanisms when pressed to keep pace with rapidly changing migration conditions. Since then, finding ways to better manage migration and help newcomers integrate into European societies has shot to the top of EU, Member State, and local policy agendas. European policymakers are in the midst of negotiating the next multiannual financial framework (MFF)—the European Union’s budget framework through 2027—making this an important time to reflect on how EU financial instruments could be adjusted to reflect the increased importance and changed face of migration and integration policy in Europe. This policy brief explores three key challenges: (1) how to make EU funds more inclusive by involving diverse and on-the-ground stakeholders in decision-making processes, (2) how to make sure that these financial instruments complement each other and other EU policy tools, and (3) how to ensure that decisions about EU funds are made based on solid evidence of what has and has not worked in the past. Through a close look at the European Social Fund (ESF) and Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF), the brief offers recommendations for increasing the participation of small and community-led organizations, improving accountability and reporting systems, and more.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Governance, European Union, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

3104. Mitigating the Effects of Trauma among Young Children of Immigrants and Refugees: The Role of Early Childhood Programs

Author:: Maki Park and Caitlin Katsiaficas
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: A child’s early years are a time of exceptional growth, and ones that can be profoundly affected by traumatic experiences. Research has firmly disproven the idea that infants and toddlers are “too young” to be affected by such experiences, leading to an increased awareness of the need for trauma-informed services for children. Early childhood education and care (ECEC) programs have the potential to play a central role in identifying and addressing the effects of trauma, with lifelong benefits. Discussions of how to build a trauma-informed approach into ECEC programs, however, generally do not take into account the unique experiences of children of refugees and other immigrants. For example, children who are themselves refugees may have experienced persecution and flight, while U.S.-born children with refugee parents may be affected by such experiences secondhand. Other postmigration stressors, such as chronic exposure to discrimination or, among families with unauthorized immigrant members, fear of deportation can also affect young children’s socioemotional and cognitive development. This issue brief explores the types of trauma that may affect young children in immigrant families, what the effects of those experiences may be, and what can be done to protect children against them. Among these opportunities: promoting the systematic use of mental health screening tools that are appropriate both for young children and for use across cultures, and boosting collaboration between ECEC providers, health services, and organizations that work with immigrants to ensure that young children and their families are referred to needed services in a timely fashion.
Topic:: Education, Children, Refugees, Immigrants, and Trauma
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3105. Noncitizens in the U.S. Military: Navigating National Security Concerns and Recruitment Needs

Author:: Muzaffar Chishti, Austin Rose, and Stephen Yale-Loehr
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Noncitizens have a long history of serving in the U.S. military, and in many periods, the promise of expedited naturalization has been used to encourage them to do so. More than 760,000 noncitizens have enlisted and obtained U.S. citizenship over the past century, with peaks during the World Wars and a smaller uptick since September 11, 2001. Yet in recent years, Congress and the Defense Department have raised vetting requirements and changed training and naturalization timelines for noncitizen recruits, citing national security concerns. Such concerns are nothing new, but past military policies have generally reflected the view that national security is better served by having a fully staffed and highly skilled fighting force than by keeping noncitizens out. This policy brief puts these recent changes into context, offering both a historical look at noncitizens in the U.S. military and analysis of how they could help meet modern recruitment needs. Among other things, the brief looks at the Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest (MAVNI) program, through which more than 10,000 noncitizens with in-demand skills have entered the military since 2008 and before recent policies effectively halted the program. The brief also discusses approaches policymakers could take to balance security concerns with the potential benefits of allowing noncitizens with key linguistic, cultural, health-care, and cyber skills to serve in the armed forces.
Topic:: Immigration, Employment, Citizenship, Military Service, and Noncitizens
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3106. Legal Protections for K-12 English Learner and Immigrant-Background Students

Author:: Julie Sugarman
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Although education is in many ways a responsibility of states and localities, the U.S. federal government also has an important role to play. National laws, court rulings, and policy guidance help ensure that English Learner (EL) and immigrant-background students have equitable access to a meaningful education. It is then up to states and school districts to color in many of the details as they implement these protections in their free, public primary and secondary school systems. This EL Insight lays out seven key ways the U.S. government protects the educational rights of EL and immigrant-background students, including those with Limited English Proficient and unauthorized-immigrant family members. It also explains the legal framework behind these rules, who enforces them, and how they can be seen in action in schools across the country. Some of the policies highlighted in this brief—such as using a two-step home language questionnaire and English assessment to identify which students are ELs—are well established and look similar across the country. Others, such as requirements for what credentials teachers must have to work with ELs, vary considerably. And while some legal protections have become a basis for strengthening broader educational policy, many have limitations or have fallen short their implementation. This brief is the latest in a series of English Learner Insights, which also includes an introduction to finding and using EL data and to the instructional models schools use to serve ELs.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Language, and ESL
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3107. Migration, Development, and Global Governance: From Crisis toward Consolidation

Author:: Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: International migration is inherently an issue that links countries together. But divergent goals and concerns among the world’s origin, transit, and destination countries have meant that until recently, there has been little agreement on what form international cooperation on migration should take. The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration, adopted by the vast majority of states in December 2018, marks what the author of this policy brief describes as “an important milestone in international cooperation on what has been the global issue most resistant to compromise.” This brief is the culmination of a collaborative project between the Migration Policy Institute and the German Development Cooperation Agency that has provided a development perspective on the Global Compact. It has tracked the compact’s negotiation and begun to look ahead to its implementation, exploring some of the most important and complex questions at the heart of this process, such as: What is the relationship between migration and development? How does labor mobility affect development in migrants’ countries of origin? How has the governance of international migration changed in recent years, and how is it likely to change going forward? The brief draws together key findings on these and other timely topics—including migrant returns and reintegration, and how development assistance could help refugee-hosting countries build effective humanitarian protection systems.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Immigration, Governance, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3108. Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy: New Realities Call for New Answers

Author:: Doris Meissner
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The U.S. immigration system is in desperate need of an overhaul—and has been for many years. What has been missing is an alternate vision for a path forward that treats immigration as a comparative advantage and strategic resource, while also accounting for heightened security and rule-of-law imperatives, that can together further U.S. interests, values, and democratic principles as a society. This concept note outlines a new MPI initiative, Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy, that seeks to fill this gap. The multiyear initiative will generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision of the role immigration can and should play in the future of the United States, acknowledging policymakers are operating against a backdrop of globalization challenges, tech-induced disruptions reshaping the future of work, growing competition for talent, and national polities increasingly skeptical of government’s ability to manage migration. The initiative's starting point is to recognize that there are new realities facing the United States that should drive immigration policymaking in the coming period, not a return to the tired debates of the past 20 years that have foundered again and again amid rising partisanship and polarization. Among these new realities: a rising old-age dependency ratio, changing challenges at the U.S.-Mexico border, need for greater flexibility in the immigration systems as other countries have modernized their immigrant-selection systems, and a shattering of the bipartisan consensus that for decades has seen legal immigration as a positive. Historically, immigration policymaking and legislation have only succeeded through across-the-aisle cooperation and a search for common ground. This initiative is committed to re-energizing such bipartisanship and recapturing a new center in formulating and advancing fresh, feasible solutions.
Topic:: Immigration, Border Control, Employment, and Economy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3109. Immigration and the U.S. Labor Market: A Look Ahead

Author:: Harry J. Holzer
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: In the coming decades, the U.S. labor market will experience major transformations that challenge the country’s economic growth and competitiveness. The native-born workforce will age and shrink as baby boomers retire and birth rates decline. Technological innovations, though unlikely to result in mass unemployment as some observers fear, will displace some workers, particularly in low-skilled occupations. And traditional employer-employee relationships are becoming less common as contracting, outsourcing, and other alternative staffing arrangements spread. While these forces may bring some productivity increases, they are also likely to result in rising inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, lower economic growth, and mismatches between the skills workers have and those that are increasingly in demand. What role, this think piece by a former chief economist for the U.S. Labor Department asks, can immigration play in mitigating these undesirable economic outcomes and supporting U.S. economic growth? Immigration could help employers hire for hard-to-fill positions, and it could reduce the costs and increase the availability of goods and services, especially in growing sectors such as health and elder care. But while immigration may benefit employers and workers with complementary skills, particularly at the high end of the skills spectrum, it can negatively affect some low-skilled workers, who have already been hard hit by technological change, globalization, and weakening labor unions. Reforms of immigration policy to support economic growth should thus be paired with a broader agenda and investments to raise the skills and earnings of workers without college degrees, whether native born or immigrant. The brief was commissioned for MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative's home page.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Employment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3110. How Does Immigration Fit into the Future of the U.S. Labor Market?

Author:: Pia M. Orrenius, Madeline Zavodny, and Stephanie Gullo
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: 2018 was a banner year for the U.S. economy, but long-run projections are much less bright. Intensifying forces—including the aging of the workforce, stagnating labor force participation rates, and emerging gaps between the skills U.S. employers seek and those workers possess—are poised to significantly reshape the U.S. labor market. Other trends, including globalization and automation, are likely to dramatically transform how and where work is done. Against the backdrop of these changes, this think piece asks: What role can immigration play in bolstering future workforce and economic growth, and meeting shifting demand for both high- and low-skilled labor? In addition to supporting labor force growth, the brief’s authors conclude that immigrant workers can help mitigate a number of other symptoms of the U.S. economy’s long-run malaise, including low productivity growth, declining domestic geographic mobility, and falling entrepreneurship. But while immigration may benefit employers, consumers, and some U.S. workers, it can adversely affect others, particularly low-skilled U.S. natives and earlier-arrived immigrants. A plan to increase employment-based immigration, the authors contend, should thus be paired with policies and programs to support these groups in acquiring new skills and shifting to growing sectors. The brief is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative's home page.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Employment, Economy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3111. Leveraging the Potential of Home Visiting Programs to Serve Immigrant and Dual Language Learner Families

Author:: Maki Park and Caitlin Katsiaficas
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: A child’s first years are ones of exceptionally rapid growth, a period that can lay the foundation for school readiness and healthy socioemotional development. Growing awareness of the importance of investing in infants and toddlers is reflected in the spread of home visiting programs—family-focused social services provided in the home on a regular basis to expectant mothers and new parents alongside their young children. The federal Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (MIECHV) program, for example, has seen its funding rise since it was created in 2010, and many states and counties have launched or expanded their own programs. Children with immigrant parents and those exposed to a language other than English in the home (known as Dual Language Learners, or DLLs) are important target populations for such early childhood programs. As of 2013–17, one-fourth of U.S. children ages 5 and under were children of immigrants, and nearly one-third were DLLs. Young children of immigrants are also more likely than their peers to live in low-income households—a priority service population for many home visiting initiatives. Yet studies show that DLLs and children in immigrant families are underserved by home visiting services. This policy brief examines the characteristics that make these children and their families important targets for such programs and barriers that may hinder their participation. It also highlights opportunities to address them, including by making these groups visible in MIECHV needs assessments, improving program data collection, and strengthening partnerships with community-based organizations.
Topic:: Education, Health, Children, Immigrants, Family, and Welfare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3112. On the Brink: Prospects for UK Nationals in the EU-27 after a No-Deal Brexit

Author:: Meghan Benton and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: In the run-up to the original March 2019 Brexit date, the European Union saw a flurry of activity as the remaining 27 Member States quickly put together contingency plans for what would happen should the United Kingdom crash out of the bloc without a deal. By necessity, many of these plans were skeletal. The extension of the Brexit deadline to the end of October 2019 bought the EU-27 additional time, but, as this policy brief discusses, few countries have undertaken significant additional planning for how to register and secure the rights of their resident UK nationals. This could spell major difficulties ahead for the nearly 1 million Britons living in the EU-27, who in a no-deal Brexit would become third-country nationals overnight, with implications for their residence status, employment rights, health-care access, and more. The United Kingdom, with its larger EU-national population of 3.6 million, has already rolled out a pilot program to enable these residents to adjust their legal status. Still, the challenges coming to light with this program hint at what could be in store for UK nationals facing untested systems in the EU-27. This policy brief looks at the major gaps in contingency plans across the EU-27 and the groups likely to be hit hardest by a no-deal Brexit, including mixed-nationality families, same-sex partners, and pensioners. It also recommends strategies the EU-27 and the United Kingdom could adopt to smooth the landing—from dropping some official criteria to register residence and making documentation requirements more flexible, to moving ahead with discussions of future social security coordination.
Topic:: European Union, Immigrants, Brexit, and Integration
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

3113. Health Insurance Coverage of Immigrants and Latinos in the Kansas City Metro Area

Author:: Randy Capps and Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Latinos and immigrants are at least twice as likely to lack health insurance coverage as the overall population in the Kansas City metropolitan area. This gap that has significant implications for the region, as Latinos and immigrants will form an ever-growing share of the area’s labor force and tax base amid anticipated declines in the native-born, non-Latino population. This brief offers a demographic profile of the immigrant and U.S.- and foreign-born Latino populations in the three Kansas City-area counties with the largest immigrant populations: Missouri’s Jackson County and Johnson and Wyandotte counties in Kansas. The brief also examines these populations’ health insurance coverage and gaps. Overall, 161,000 residents in the three Kansas City metro counties with the largest immigrant populations—Johnson County; Jackson County, Missouri; and Wyandotte County, Kansas—are uninsured, with immigrants of all origins and Latinos accounting for 38 percent (61,000) of the total. MPI’s analysis draws on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, county health departments, and local safety-net health-care providers. “Given the important role immigrants and their U.S.-born children play in Kansas City-area communities and the future of the regional economy, it makes economic sense to maximize health insurance coverage for immigrant and Latino families,” the authors find.
Topic:: Employment, Immigrants, Health Insurance, and Latino Issues
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3114. Refugee Sponsorship Programs: A Global State of Play and Opportunities for Investment

Author:: Susan Fratzke, Lena Kainz, Hanne Beirens, Emma Dorst, and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: A pair of contradictory trends is challenging humanitarian protection systems around the world: the number of refugees in need of protection has climbed to an all-time high, while at the same time, many countries have reduced their commitments to refugee resettlement. With protection needs high and generosity low, it has become more important to find new ways for refugees to reach safety and to rebuild public consensus around the value of offering protection to those in need. To meet these challenges, governments and civil-society groups in a growing number of countries have begun to explore refugee sponsorship (also called community or private sponsorship), either as a complement or alternative to traditional protection pathways. This MPI Europe policy brief takes stock of sponsorship programs worldwide—from the well-established Canadian private sponsorship program, to much newer and smaller-scale initiatives in countries such as Argentina, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Although government investment and support for such programs are essential, this study also lays out a variety of ways private philanthropic actors can support these programs. Among them: funding the development of informational materials and hotlines for sponsors; investing in program infrastrucrture, such as staff positions within civil-society organizations; and monitoring and evaluation by civil society and/or government. Crucially, the authors note that while much effort in recent years has gone into developing and launching new initiatives, existing programs also face important capacity and funding gaps. “To ensure the capacity of refugee protection systems at a global level,” they write, “strengthening these programs should be viewed as a priority equal in importance to setting up new schemes.”
Topic:: Immigration, Law, Refugees, Investment, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3115. Pushing Back on Iran in Syria (Part 1): Beyond the ‘Boots’

Author:: Dana Stroul and Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Apart from its military intervention, Tehran has pursued a wide range of economic and social tactics for increasing its sway in Syria, but Washington can still push back with targeted assistance, innovative sanctions, and strategic messaging. This PolicyWatch is the first in a two-part series on how to counter Iran’s expanding activities in Syria amid talk of U.S. military withdrawal. Part 2 will discuss the array of Iranian-backed armed groups currently operating there
Topic:: International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3116. Netanyahu’s Political and Legal Challenges in the Next Elections

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu hopes to capture his fifth term in the April 9 national elections, and polls show he has a clear lead over other candidates, retaining support from approximately a quarter of the electorate. Yet it is insufficient to merely have the most votes; to govern, the winner must subsequently cobble together a majority of at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu is also under the shadow of potential corruption indictments pending a hearing that would occur after the elections.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

3117. How the United States Can Still Keep Faith With Its Best Allies in Syria

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States prepares to withdraw its 2,000 troops from Syria, it has one last essential mission to accomplish. Those U.S. forces have fought successfully, hand in hand, with 60,000 Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against Islamic State terrorists for the past four years. And President Trump’s latest statement about this, on January 2, noted his desire to protect these Kurds. So, despite all obstacles, the United States should still try to protect that brave and loyal militia in the short term, and secure a safer medium-term future for the Syrian Kurds and their local partners.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Syria

3118. Trump Departs Syria: An Israeli Perspective

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Jerusalem seeks to mitigate the potential risks of the president’s decision by shaping its implementation and obtaining U.S. security guarantees, though long-term concerns still loom. Israeli officials have been careful not to publicly criticize President Trump’s recent announcement that all U.S. military forces will be pulled out of Syria. Below the surface, however, they have exuded dissatisfaction, concern, and a desire to make the best out of the situation. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s initial public response was lukewarm, stating that Israel will continue to take care of its security and “will not abide Iranian entrenchment in Syria.” He followed those remarks with hectic bilateral discussions on the matter, holding a phone call with President Trump, meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the sidelines of a gathering in Brazil, and hosting National Security Advisor John Bolton in Jerusalem. These discussions elicited U.S. public assurances about Israel’s security and, so it appears, opened opportunities to affect the manner in which Trump’s decision is implemented.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3119. Visegrad in the Western Balkans: Losing ground?

Author:: Jana Juzová
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: The Visegrad countries have since their own accession to the EU been one of the most active European actors advocating for further EU enlargement towards South- Eastern Europe. On the joint Visegrad-level as well as in their own foreign policies, the Western Balkans have a special position; the V4 countries provided them support on their path of European integration with transfer of know-how based on the V4’s own successful experience with economic and political transformation, regional cooperation and Euro-Atlantic integration. However, the Visegrad approach towards the Western Balkans is now being undermined and is losing its legitimacy due to several factors outlined in this paper. In spite of the positive impact of the Visegrad policy towards Western Balkans1, recent trends, such as worsening state of democracy in Hungary, Hungarian PM Orbán’s connections to autocratic leaders in the region (recently granting the asylum to former Macedonian PM Gruevski who escaped to Hungary from a jail sentence at home) are weakening not only Visegrad’s legitimacy as advocate for transformation of the region and its integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures, but also the normative power of the EU. Other V4 countries’ indifference towards this trend coupled with Poland’s new involvement in the Berlin Process framework, another EU member states’ initiative focused on the Western Balkans, only contribute to raising doubts about the commitment and legitimacy of Visegrad’s Western Balkan policy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3120. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Sudan

3121. The US withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to US allies in the Gulf about the Trump’s commitment to the Iran-containment strategy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Kurdistan

3122. The displacement dilemma: Should Europe help Syrian refugees return home?

Author:: Jasmine El-Gamal
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: European governments must decide when and how to protect Syrian refugees who are voluntarily returning home They should do so using their remaining levers of influence in Syria, in line with European interests and UNHCR protection parameters. European engagement on voluntary refugee returns should be limited, cautious, and conditional. Europe must work with Middle Eastern host countries to prevent forced refugee returns. European governments must talk to all relevant stakeholders in the Syrian conflict, particularly Russia.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Syria

3123. From myth to reality: How to understand Turkey’s role in the Western Balkans

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: European fears of Turkish expansionism in the Western Balkans have no basis in reality. Turkey spots opportunity in the region – yet it actually wants the Western Balkans inside the EU and NATO.The AKP’s approach once deserved a ‘neo-Ottoman’ tag, but Erdogan has since refocused on personalised diplomacy and pragmatic relations. Western Balkans governments remain reluctant to act on Turkey’s behalf by pursuing Gulenists, despite overall warm ties. Europeans should cease questioning Ankara’s motives and work on shared goals instead – hugging Turkey close and keeping it out of Russia’s embrace
Topic:: Civil War and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Balkans

3124. China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe

Author:: Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Could China’s quiet but steadily rising penetration of Central Europe bear risks for the EU? Certainly, Beijing is using the region as a gateway to Western Europe’s markets while including the EU in its “Eurasian” integration project. But a deepening trade triangle of China, Germany, and Central European countries could put other EU countries at an economic disadvantage. Germany must address this risk, carefully balancing national interest and European cohesion.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

3125. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy

Author:: Sergei Markedonov
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty to the South Caucasus. Russia’s policies are crucial here, just as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the South Caucasus highlights Russia's security concerns. The post-Soviet neighborhood's different conflict zones require a differentiated approach.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

3126. Transatlantic Air Power and What to Do Now: Key to Deterrence, Key to Collective Defense

Author:: Frank Gorenc
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov, demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was.
Topic:: International Affairs, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3127. Navigating the Energy Transition

Author:: David Koranyi
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
Topic:: Energy Policy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3128. Sanctions on the IRGC Will Be Judged by Results – and by Iran’s Reaction

Author:: Yaakov Lappin
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Trump administration’s decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity will ultimately be judged by how successful it is in changing Iran’s conduct.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

3129. US Designation of Revolutionary Guards Risks Escalation

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The US designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, and the Iranian response, has potentially put US military personnel in the region in harm’s way. The designation increases economic pressure on Iran because the IRGC is not only an army but also a commercial conglomerate – but it remains to be seen to what degree the sanctions will affect the IRGC
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

3130. With Italy on Board, China’s BRI Gets a Major Boost

Author:: Emil Avdaliani
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: China’s grand Belt and Road Initiative, which is intended to connect the Asia-Pacific with the European market, had a major boost in March when Italy – the first of the G7 states – effectively signed onto the project. This event illustrates how difficult it is becoming for European countries to resist Chinese investment at a time of economic troubles in the EU
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

3131. Mariupol: An On-Site Report

Author:: Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Although Vladimir Putin has not articulated the final objective of his proxy war in eastern Ukraine, his actions seem to indicate that he is determined to create a land bridge from Mariupol to Odessa – two major seaports vitally important to Ukraine's economy. Putin's overall strategy in Ukraine seems to be to strangle it economically by disrupting shipping between the Odessa and Azov Sea ports, with the aim of eventually subjugating Ukraine to Russia
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

3132. China's Top Five War Plans

Author:: Ian Easton
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: This publication breaks down Beijing’s likely top five war plans to understand what may be driving China’s military reorganization and reform campaign. Easton analyzes available Chinese military sources and concludes that China’s primary strategic goal is to take Taiwan using one or more of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s five outlined combat operations, in the 21st century’s foremost flashpoint. He also explains how these five different joint operations could be used to isolate or occupy Taiwan, thwart American intervention in offensive operations against U.S. military units, and repel potential border threats from India in the event of aPLA invasion of Taiwan.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: China

3133. Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In early May 2019, the United States announced it would deploy an aircraft carrier, B-52 strategic bombers, and a Patriot missile battery to the Gulf region, declaring it had received information that Iran intended to strike US targets or those of its allies, directly or through a proxy. The United States followed with a new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Iran

3134. Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Although both the United States and Iran say they do not want a direct military confrontation, such escalation by the United States necessarily invites an Iranian response, particularly since Tehran is butting heads with US regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran

3135. The assault on Tripoli: Haftar’s military calculations and the political ramifications

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Faced with a failed offensive and weakened political influence, Haftar may decide to focus his efforts on eastern Libya, which would give added impetus to partition and deepen existing divisions.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Tripoli

3136. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities

Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

3137. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

3138. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Sudan

3139. Beyond Borders and Leaders: Toward Sustainable Peace for Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:: Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The lesson here is that Ethiopia and Eritrea should not envisage sustainable peace to be brokered by external actors. Rather the solution should come from a genuine effort from both sides
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

3140. Who will Save Jerusalem:The Dichotomy of Arab Politics in Trump's Era!

Author:: Ramzy Baroud
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The Deal of the Century will allow Trump/Kushner, Netanyahu and bin Salman to merely buy time, each for his own domestic benefit. It is likely to split up an Arab camp that has served as the American vanguard.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3141. The Algerian Crisis: Origins and Prospects for a “Second Republic”

Author:: Yahia H. Zoubir
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Hirak has been the relegation of the Islamists because the protesters showed no interest in an Islamist ideology. They are opposed to foreign interference and have warned the West, particularly the former colonial power France, from interfering in their movement.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3142. Russia’s Energy Strategy

Author:: Tatiana Mitrova
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The fate of the “Russian Energy Strategy Up to 2035” paper—a key document defining the country`s strategic priorities in this critically important industry and submitted by Russia’s Energy Ministry every five years—illustrates well the contradictory predicament of Russia’s energy sector. In 2015, after two years of preparations, the latest version was submitted to the government, but national authorities have not approved it until now. Behind the scenes, many conflicting interests prevent the setting of a clear and coherent long-term vision.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

3143. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation

Author:: Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3144. The Population of Russia, Today and Tomorrow

Author:: Gaiane Safarova
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Like every country, Russia has a very specific demographic footprint; its fertility, mortality, and migration rates, as well as its age composition, all affect its performance domestically and on the world stage. Russia’s current demographics were shaped by its history, particularly crises like World War II, and its future will be deeply affected by conditions like its dropping fertility rate and aging population
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

3145. The Melians’ Revenge: How Small, Frontline, European States Can Employ Emerging Technology to Defend Against Russia

Author:: T. X. Hammes
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Perhaps the most famous quote from Thucydides is “the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.”1 For thousands of years, it has been accepted that the weak must comply or face the fate of the Melians. Today, the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may be revising that truth. It is creating a wide range of small, smart, cheap weapons that can provide small states combat power previously reserved to major powers
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3146. European Energy Security and Transatlantic Cooperation: A Current Assessment

Author:: Richard L. Morningstar
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This brief emerged from discussions during an Atlantic Council Global Energy Center roundtable on European energy security held in Brussels on March 27, 2019, as well as other events and individual meetings with government officials, private sector executives, and leading academics in the global energy sector. The collective dialogues and key takeaways are reflected in this brief. Because the conversations took place under the Chatham House Rule, the information will not be attributed to any specific individual. The brief will provide a current assessment of EU energy security focusing on the role of gas markets, while future briefs in the European Energy Security series will take a closer look at other critical issues impacting European energy security. Following these briefs, a final report in 2020 will propose specific recommendations for the US and EU governments on how to address transatlantic energy security issues.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3147. When the Friend of My Friends Is Not My Friend

Author:: Mark Katz
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: uring the Cold War, the Soviet Union posed a challenge to the United States throughout the entire world, including in the Middle East. Soviet activity in the Middle East, though, was also a challenge for many US allies in the region, and beyond. Soviet influence in the Middle East expanded during the 1950s and 1960s, in particular, as many in the Arab world became angry about US support for Israel, and as several pro-Western Arab governments were overthrown and replaced by anti-Western ones that actively sought Soviet support. Due to several factors, however, many of the gains made by the Soviets in the Middle East ended up being lost. These included: the defection of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successor in Egypt, Anwar Sadat, from the Soviet to the US camp; Washington’s successful 1970s-era diplomacy in bringing about an Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement; genuine fear of the Soviet threat on the part of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies; the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the downfall of a pro-Western regime did not lead to the rise of a pro-Soviet one, but to the rise of one that was both anti-American and anti-Soviet; and, finally, the collapse of both communism and the Soviet Union itself from 1989 to 1991
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3148. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation

Author:: Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3149. Transatlantic Air Power and What to Do Now: Key to Deterrence, Key to Collective Defense

Author:: Frank Gorenc
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov, demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3150. Navigating the Energy Transition

Author:: David Koranyi
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3151. Evolution of the protection of civilians in UN peacekeeping

Author:: Lisa Sharland
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: his year marks twenty years since the Security Council added the ‘protection of civilians in armed conflict’ to its agenda and authorised the first UN peacekeeping mission to explicitly protect civilians. Yet efforts to carry forward that mandate in the field over the last two decades have been mixed. While there is consensus among the member states within the UN that peacekeeping missions should protect, there remain different views among the various stakeholders on the limits and expectations of peacekeepers when it comes to implementing this mandate. And the consequences for the civilians on the ground—which expect protection from the UN—can be dire.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3152. Protecting critical national infrastructure in an era of IT and OT convergence

Author:: Rajiv Shah
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Today, we’re seeing an increasing convergence between the digital and the physical worlds. This is sometimes referred to as the convergence of IT (information technology) and OT (operational technology)—devices that monitor physical effects, control them, or both. More and more devices are becoming interconnected to create the ‘internet of things’
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3153. Between Japan and Southeast Asia: Australia and US-China economic rivalry

Author:: Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Recently, the economic front of US–China major-power rivalry has deepened and expanded beyond the legalistic confines of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Many in Australia, which has the US as its security ally and main source and destination of investment and China as its main trading partner, are rightly concerned by this evolution.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3154. The European Union energy transition: key priorities for the next five years

Author:: Simone Tagliapietra
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The new members of the European Parliament and European Commission who start their mandates in 2019 should put in place major policy elements to unleash the energy transition. It is becoming economically and technically feasible, with most of the necessary technologies now available and technology costs declining. The cost of the transition would be similar to that of maintaining the existing system, if appropriate policies and regulations are put in place
Topic:: Energy Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: European Union

3155. Cyberattack: What Goes Around, Comes Around

Author:: Ken Barker
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Canadian government is now openly discussing the possibility of making cyberweapons part of its official national defence strategy. The new development was revealed in a recent government white paper, entitled “Strong, Secure, and Engaged” (SSE), which outlined defence policy across a wide range of activities. Specifically, the paper discusses working toward a “more assertive posture in the cyber domain by hardening our defences, and by conducting active cyber operations against potential adversaries in the context of government-authorized military missions” with an explicit commitment to developing cyberattack capabilities. This direction not only opens up new possibilities for Canadian defence, it could also represent significant new risks. Without good answers to the difficult questions this new direction could raise, the country could be headed down a very precarious path.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3156. A Canadian Primer to the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: On Friday, June 28, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hosts the leaders of the 19 major economic nations and the European Union in Osaka, Japan. As G20 finance ministers noted after their meeting earlier this month “growth remains low and risks remain tilted to the downside. Most importantly, trade and geopolitical tensions have intensified.” Created in the wake of the 2007-2008 “Great Recession”, the G20 is economic multilateralism at work, an insurance policy to prevent globalization going off the rails. This 14th G20 summit is the culmination of a year-long series of ministerial meetings, hosted throughout Japan.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Canada

3157. Searching for a Middle-Power Role in a New World Order

Author:: Eugene Lang
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The “America First” agenda will persist well beyond the life of the Trump administration. Washington no longer “has Canada’s back”. We are living in a new age of great power rivalry. Populism poses a major challenge to the rules-based international order. Adult supervision in global politics is in short supply. These are some of the themes that surfaced during a recent CGAI conference titled What Role for Canada on the Global Stage? Implied, if unstated, was that Canada is adrift internationally on these waters, in search of a role in a new world order of which most Canadians seem unaware. The question remained: How should Canada respond to these new global currents in a way befitting a middle power entering the third decade of the 21st century?
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3158. The Sub-Optimal Effect of Decreasing Military Capability – A Canadian Study

Author:: Ross Fetterly
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Defence budgets seldom remain constant, despite the long-term orientation required in defence planning. However, short-term fluctuations in funding can disrupt military programs and activities, and the impact can last several years. This is, in part, due to the unique mix of personnel, equipment and operations, which the defence budget funds. In times of rapid and unplanned defence budget reductions, short-term decisions can be made that are not necessarily in the best interest of the efficient and effective management of the armed forces. Indeed, significant unforecasted funding reductions could produce and reinforce dysfunctional behaviour. Defence budget reductions, to be effective, must include reductions in each of personnel, operations and maintenance, and capital categories in order to maintain a balance between current demands and building future capability. This study uses the Royal Canadian Navy to demonstrate the fundamental cost relationships in the management and operation of defence forces, which become evident during periods of rapid funding reductions. Fiscal year 2004-2005 is used as the baseline year for the study. The Canadian navy is used as a case study, although similar case studies could have been done for the Canadian army or air force. The Canadian navy has warships divided between the East and West coasts, with one naval base on each coast. This study reduces the number of ships, and associated base support on each coast, in a defined sequence until all ships are eliminated, and illustrates potential savings throughout this process. The study concludes that unless infrastructure, as well as the number of military and civilian personnel, is reduced as ships are decommissioned, savings are minimal.
Topic:: National Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Canada

3159. Anatomy of a Buy: The Four Dimensions of Procuring a Future Fighter for Canada

Author:: Alan Stephenson
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Purchasing a fleet of fighter aircraft is a complex process with many variables and the Canadian government has a duty to ensure the billions of procurement dollars required are properly spent. The interplay between the four dimensions involved in military procurement (military, technological, economic, and political) defies simple analysis. The government has directed the Canadian Armed Forces to ensure Canadian sovereignty, defend North America, and engage in extraterritorial missions. The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) has responded to its responsibilities to support these commitments with a thorough, capability-based Statement of Requirements for the future fighter, taking critical functionalities of operating in the future battlespace and emerging technologies into consideration.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3160. Does Canada Need a Foreign Policy Review?

Author:: Randolf Mank
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada’s contemporary foreign policy has been shaped by deep integration with, and dependence on, the United States, offset by multilateral support for a rules-based international order. The Trump administration’s confrontational nationalism, combined with other global events and trends, has now disrupted Canada’s position and assumptions. This raises the question of whether or not it’s time for a Canadian foreign policy review. While the Trudeau government deserves credit for several initiatives, a series of discontinuities in Canada’s domestic and foreign policies suggests that our interests could be better served. The Canadian government has two main options: it can follow its current path of adjusting its policies in an ad hoc fashion, while waiting out the Trump administration and hoping for more favourable successors, or it can attempt to set Canada on a new path, in which case a foreign policy review would be warranted.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Canada

3161. Overcoming ‘Boom and Bust’? Analyzing National Shipbuilding Plans in Canada and Australia

Author:: Jeff Collins
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: While both Canada and Australia share similar constitutional frameworks and imperial histories, they are also no stranger to procurement challenges. Cost overruns, delays, regionalism, and protracted intellectual property disputes have all been part of major defence acquisition projects in recent decades. This Policy Paper analyzes the largest and most expensive procurement projects undertaken by either country, Canada’s $73 billion (estimated) National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS), launched in 2010, and Australia’s A$90 billion Naval Shipbuilding Plan (NSP), launched in 2017. Each project represents an attempt to implement a rational, multi-decade approach to naval acquisition. Driven by a desire to overcome previous boom-and-bust cycles, the NSS and NSP aim to create a sustainable shipbuilding sector capable of meeting the immediate and future naval demands of Ottawa and Canberra. Neither country has attempted a shipbuilding plan on this scale before.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3162. The Arctic is Warming and Turning Red: Implications for Canada and Russia in an Evolving Polar Region

Author:: Ron Wallace
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Canada and the Russian Federation have pursued significantly different strategies for economic development and security in their respective circumpolar regions. These policies have resulted in very different northern strategic outcomes. While Canada and its circumpolar neighbours (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and the United States) have advanced their polar resource claims through the UN, Russia has taken additional bold steps to secure its polar resources. Events since 2000 have demonstrated a fierce Russian political resolve to secure its economic independence from the West and to achieve a prominent place on the world geopolitical stage. In a steadily warming Arctic, Russia has recognized the potential economic and strategic significance of its Northern Sea Route and is now the foremost military and shipping leader in the circumpolar region. Russia continues to accelerate its efforts to re-open abandoned former Soviet Siberian military bases and to construct new operational bases. The largest Russian military build-up in the polar region since 1991 provides an indication that, consistent with its geopolitical aspirations, Russia is prepared to assert and defend its Arctic resources and sea routes. This accelerating Russian presence and military capability, paralleled by certain Chinese initiatives (China increasingly views itself as a near-Arctic state) have occasioned not just re-evaluations, but a reinvigoration of certain Arctic defence postures among circumpolar allies in NATO.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3163. Unblocking the Bottlenecks and Making the Global Supply Chain Transparent: How blockchain technology can update global trade

Author:: Hanna Norberg
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Blockchain technology is still in its infancy, but already it has begun to revolutionize global trade. Its lure is irresistible because of the simplicity with which it can replace the standard methods of documentation, smooth out logistics, increase transparency, speed up transactions, and ameliorate the planning and tracking of trade. Blockchain essentially provides the supply chain with an unalterable ledger of verified transactions, and thus enables trust every step of the way through the trade process. Every stakeholder involved in that process – from producer to warehouse worker to shipper to financial institution to recipient at the final destination – can trust that the information contained in that indelible ledger is accurate. Fraud will no longer be an issue, middlemen can be eliminated, shipments tracked, quality control maintained to highest standards and consumers can make decisions based on more than the price. Blockchain dramatically reduces the amount of paperwork involved, along with the myriad of agents typically involved in the process, all of this resulting in soaring efficiencies.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3164. Updating an ODA Policy in Canada: The Role of Global Remittances in Development

Author:: Cynthia Bansak and Nicole Simpson
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The federal government has pledged to update Canada’s official development assistance (ODA) policy and this paper examines the potential important role of remittances in the development program. Remittances can serve as a significant form of cross-border capital flows and can have sizable effects on both the sending and receiving countries. This policy piece provides an overview of trends in global remittances and gives a context for the policy discussion on the relationship between remittances and ODA. The paper discusses the primary reasons behind global remittances and their impacts on sending and receiving countries, with a particular emphasis on Canada, the United States and Mexico. Past findings provide insight into the reasons and impacts of remittances on both developed and developing countries. Within the context of Canada, the paper also examines how remittances have been able to complement and possibly drive other development reform efforts domestically and abroad. The goal of the analysis is to help inform the policy discussion in Canada and concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the Canadian federal government.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3165. Investing in Renewable Energy in Azerbaijan: A Valuation of Three Alternative Investment Scenarios

Author:: Tim Kerckhoff
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The government of Azerbaijan has expressed ambitious plans to ramp up the share of electricity gen-erated from renewable and alternative energy. Currently, most electricity in Azerbaijan is produced from fossil fuels, including natural gas. Beyond being the source of almost all electricity produced in Azerbaijan, oil and gas exports form the backbone of the Azerbaijani economy–making it highly sus-ceptible to price volatility in the global markets. Between 2018 and 2020, however, the government aims to increase its capacity for generating electricity from wind, solar and biomass by 420 Mega-Wat
Topic:: Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan

3166. Comparative Study of the Automotive Industry in Azerbaijan

Author:: Orkhan Huseynov
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The automotive industry is a major employment generator in many economies, with millions of people earning their livelihood, both directly and indirectly. According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (IOMVM), the current turnover of the automobile industry is around 2 trillion EURO and is equivalent to the size of 6th largest economy in the world. While there has been a growth momentum for the global automotive industry in the past, it is also facing challenges of late, especially in view of the increasing cost of production and slowing down of demand. The world automotive industry is also faced with the challenge of undertaking R&D and designing fuel-efficient vehicles in view of volatile oil prices. The environmental challenges have also assumed critical importance to the automotive industry at the backdrop of climatic change
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3167. The Business environment: economic reforms in the context of institutional shortcomings

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The existence of a well-functioning business environment is a key factor in the diversification of the economy, the efficient use of available resources and ensuring sustainable growth. The business environment, in its turn, should be regarded as a composite of conditions that incorporate quite complex components. If one or more of the composition components are not functioning appropriately, the result you will get is not adequate to the available capacity. The existence of contemporary institutions is the absolute requirement for a "good business environment", performing functions such as coordinating all other economic advantages, organizing appropriate arrangements, and risk management.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3168. CESD Research Brief: Should we expect a change in the rate of Azerbaijani manat in context of high demand for US dollar?

Author:: CESD Research Team
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In January-February of 2019, activity in foreign exchange markets has further escalated. According to the information provided by the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), during the corresponding period 951 million US dollars were sold, including 634.9 million in January and 316.2 million in February. This is 47.2% higher than the same period of the previous year.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3169. Azerbaijani Economy 2018: Results and Perspectives

Author:: Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: Following the recession and stagnation of the economy of Azerbaijan in 2015-2017, a growth of 1.4% was recorded in 2018. Economic growth has been mainly driven by the following factors. Favorable foreign economic environment for Azerbaijan from the context of oil prices: the initial forecast of the oil prices by the Azerbaijani government at the beginning of 2018 was 45 US dollars per barrel. Then, during the second half of the year, the forecast was adjusted to 55 US dollars per barrel. However, the actual price of one barrel of oil for the reporting period was above 71 US dollars (29% higher than forecasted)…
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3170. The CESD Assessment on the 2019 State Budget Project

Author:: Dan Breban
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The current external macroeconomic conditions observed throughout the year of 2018, such as increasing rates by FED/ECB, exerts certain pressure on the economies of developing nations. Despite hovering well-over its predicted value for most of the year, the recent decline in the price of oil once again puts question marks for the future of the commodity. Considering all of the above mentioned facts in mind, dependence of 2019 state budget of Azerbaijan on oil, where 50.4% of revenues directly come from the oil sector further makes the country more vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. The largest hike is observed in the amount of revenues collected through the excise taxes while the biggest decline is in income taxes, reflecting the new amendments to the tax code. Expenditures of the state budget are going to be 7.3% higher in 2019, with the most significant boost observed in construction sector. This fact undermines the efficiency of the public funds, as the expenditures towards construction are more likely to become subject of mismanagement. When looking at the SOFAZ’s budget, a clear trend of increasingly allocating more and more funds to the state budget can be seen. As expected, new amendments were made to the fiscal rule in order to make it more flexible, however, the effectiveness of these changes are still unclear.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3171. Baku-Tbilisi-Kars: Regional Implications and Perspectives

Author:: Victoria Bittner
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The establishment of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy as a part of the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) sets new objectives for the deepening of cooperation between the EU and EaP countries, and the greater integration of the EaP based on shared norms, values and standards. Forming the eastern divide of the ENP, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia are considered official neighbors of the EU, although half of these countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) do not lie on the immediate borders of the EU. However, these South Caucasian countries play an important transit role by connecting the EU with Central Asia and China. Hence, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railroad, crossing Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, establishes a significant link in the further development and integration of regional and global transit corridors stretching from China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3172. The Next Generation Automobile Industry as a Creative Industry

Author:: Seio Nakajima
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to describe the recent transformation of the automobile industry from a manufacturing industry to include aspects of the service and creative industries. Firstly, it reviews the recent trend of the automobile industry as a service industry. Secondly, it discusses the automobile industry’s move toward the creative industries. It examines these two trends, mostly based on the next-generation automobile industry in Japan. Finally, it discusses the implications of the above transformation of the automobile industry on academic studies of the creative industries, and argues for what it calls a strong programme in creative industries studies. It also provides a provisional note on government policies in the era of the next-generation automobile industry.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3173. ASEAN Vision 2040: Towards a Bolder and Stronger ASEAN Community

Author:: Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Volume I consists of the integrative report and executive summary of ASEAN Vision 2040, and a briefer on new challenges and key priorities and strategies. ASEAN Vision 2040 has been drawn up in the context of ASEAN’s achievements, revealed aspirations, and expectations of the peoples of ASEAN for the near future, and the recent and expected global, regional, and technological developments. The volume presents the ASEAN Vision 2040 and highlights key areas of collective leadership and ASEAN centrality, harnessing the emerging Industry 4.0 to transform the ASEAN economies and enhance ASEAN resiliency and developmental sustainability, realising a seamless ASEAN, engendering greater inclusivity, and a deeper sense of community and belonging, and strengthening the ASEAN institutional ecosystem.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3174. The Prevention Agenda: Mapping Out Member States’ Concerns

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Despite recent positive developments making forward progress on the Secretary-General’s call for a more preventive approach to crisis, in New York, discussions on prevention remain focused on difficult moments of crisis and must navigate deepening divisions in the Security Council
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3175. Reaching Tibet in July 1900 via British India and Nepal: Journey of the First Japanese, Ekai Kawaguchi

Author:: Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Archival accounts of 19th centur y Tibet describe it as the forbidden, inaccessible, daunting and remotely unreachable territory of the Himalayas. Lhasa, the religious and administrative capital of Tibet since the mid-17th century literally meant “Place of the Gods” located at an elevation of about 3,600 m (11,800 ft) at the center of the Tibetan Plateau with the surrounding mountains rising to 5,500 m (18,000 ft). The air in this part contained only 68 percent oxygen compared to sea level, thereby indicating the geographic difficulties of the terrain. Tibet has stirred the curiosity amongst explorers, adventurists and researchers as being amongst the few places in the world that fired the imagination of adventurers. Owing to Buddhism, Japan, quite evidently had far more incentive than most others to reach Tibet, and ultimately, Lhasa. It was in the backdrop of these existential conditions that Ekai Kawaguchi (1866-1945) a Buddhist monk became the first Japanese explorer to embark upon a journey fraught with danger and uncertainty in May 1897 from Tokyo, to have succeeded in touching the frontier of the roof of the world, as he stepped on Tibetan soil for the first time on July 4, 1900
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3176. Does Australia have an “Indo Pacific strategy”?

Author:: Thomas Wilkins
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The US Department of Defense (DOD) released its longawaited Indo Pacific Strategy Report (IPSR) in tandem with the IISS-Shangrila Dialogue in Singapore on 1 June 2019. This IPSR appears to subsume or extend the earlier Free and Open Indo Pacific (FOIP) strategy (sometimes referred to now as a “vision”) into a more comprehensive regional Indo Pacific Strategy (IPS), that is anchored in the earlier 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) and 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) documents. Australia has yet to produce an analogous document dedicated to profiling its own “Indo Pacific Strategy”, but with the US iteration in view, it is possible to construct an plausible image of such a strategy in the Australian case by drawing upon various pertinent materials from a range of government sources. Indeed, the notion of an overarching IPs is gradually taking shape in Australian strategic thinking, as testified to by a variety of official documents, including large portions of the 2016 Defence White Paper, and especially 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, alongside other policy statements and initiatives, framed in the context of analysis and debate undertaken by nationally-based strategic commentators. A small case “s” in “Indo Pacific strategy” is specifically employed in this paper to distinguish the author’s conception from any formally mandated government “Strategy”
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3177. The Role for Middle Powers in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Looking at Opportunities for Canada and Australia

Author:: John Berkshire Miller
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The Indo-Pacific, as a geographic concept that connects the vast oceans of Pacific and the Indian along with the states in between, is not a new idea. Indeed, the idea of a broader geographic region – rather than more traditional subsets such as East Asia, South Asia, or the more expansive Asia-Pacific – has been used for more than a decade by scholars and practitioners in the region. An Indian naval captain began using the concept in geopolitical terms more than a decade ago, but the terminology has not been limited to scholars in Delhi. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, back during his first stint as Prime Minister in 2007, spoke to India’s parliament about his country’s vision for Indo-Pacific noting a “confluence of the two seas”2 and pressed for a need to transcend beyond traditional frameworks that often separated or minimized the geopolitical connections between South Asian and the Indian Ocean region with that of East Asia and the Pacific
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3178. Territorial Annexation of Tibet

Author:: Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Histor y often tends to repeat itself, or as Spanish-American philosopher, Jorge Agustín Santayana wrote in 1905-06 in The Life of Reason, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. While setting out to write on, or about Tibet, it is inevitable to conclude that there never was, or will be, a long walk to freedom either for Tibet, or for the holy chair of the successive Dalai Lamas – the god and king-in-one incarnation of Chen-re-zi, the Lord of Mercy – the patron deity of Tibet. The Dalai Lama not only governs his subjects in this life, but can influence their rebirth in the next, or as Tibetans believe is the “Ruler in this life, the Uplifter in the hereafter.”1
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3179. Countering Foreign Influence and Interference in Open Societies

Author:: Hideshi Tokuchi
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: It is almost a cliché that Australia and New Zealand are canaries in the coal mine for Chinese attempts at exerting political influence.1 In fact, Chinese influence is not a topic that affects just Oceania. It is already a serious challenge that confronts all democracies and open societies. According to Clive Hamilton’s “Silent Invasion,” a Chinese diplomat who sought political asylum in Australia told Hamilton that Australia’s openness, relatively small population, a large number of Chinese immigrants and commitment to multiculturalism have weakened Australia’s capacity to recognize and defend against the Chinese infiltration, but all democracies and open societies are susceptible to the threat
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3180. Containing the Border Fallout of Colombia’s New Guerrilla Schism

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Tensions are rising on the Colombia-Venezuela border after a new guerrilla faction opted out of Colombia’s 2016 peace deal. With diplomatic ties between the two countries severed, the risk of escalation is high. Bogotá and Caracas should open channels of communication to avoid inter-state clashes
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3181. Seven Opportunities for the UN in 2019-2020

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In a period of increasing international tensions, the role of the UN in resolving major crises is shrinking. World leaders attending the UN General Assembly this month will talk about conflicts from Latin America to Asia. The chances of diplomatic breakthroughs have appeared low, even if this week’s departure of Iran hawk John Bolton from the Trump administration increased speculation about the possibility of a meeting in New York between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Looking beyond the General Assembly, opportunities for the Security Council to resolve pressing conflicts – or for Secretary-General António Guterres and other UN officials to do so without Council mandates – seem few. But some nevertheless exist. In cases where the permanent five members of the council (P5) have a shared interest in de-escalating crises, or regional powers collaborate with UN agencies to address conflicts, the organisation can still provide a framework for successful peacemaking.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3182. Strong Leadership And Effective Partnerships For Successful Municipal FTTP Projects

Author:: Jennifer Terry
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Access to affordable, high-speed Internet is essential for individuals, businesses, and government to function effectively in the 21st century. Many U.S. and European communities lack access to affordable, high-speed Internet. Communities have tried to address this issue by building municipally-owned fiber networks or by engaging the private sector in municipal efforts to expand access to affordable, high-speed Internet.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3183. Revitalizing Democracy Assistance To Counter Threats To Democratization

Author:: David Black
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The global prospects for democratization and democracy assistance are worse than at any time in several decades due to the culmination of six trends: a backlash against democracy assistance, disillusionment with the Western model of liberal democracy, increasingly resilient authoritarianism, efforts by Russia to undermine democratic institutions and development, China’s alternative development model, and the spread of “digital authoritarian” technology. Democracy assistance has been adapting to these trends, but proponents of democracy are being outpaced by those who seek to undermine democracy or promote alternative models that are less sustainable, just, or equitable.
Topic:: International Affairs and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3184. Transatlantic Cooperation on Asia and the Trump Administration

Author:: Andrew Small
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Transatlantic cooperation on Asia, and on China in particular, is still characterized by missed opportunities and self-imposed obstacles. Yet it would be a mistake to underplay the constructive developments that have occurred during the Trump administration. At the working level, a great deal of groundwork has now been laid for the joint efforts that will be necessary on a range of Asia policy issues.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3185. Reform In Armenia Assessing Progress and Opportunities for U.S. Policy

Author:: Johnathan Katz
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Thank you for the opportunity to join this distinguished panel to discuss Armenia’s democratic transformation and steps the United States and other international partners can take to work with the government in Yerevan, along with Armenian citizens and the Armenian diaspora, to strengthen rule of law and transparency in Armenia. As you may be aware, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and our Black Sea Trust based in Bucharest continue to support democracy, civil society, and free media in Armenia and across Eastern Europe.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Armenia

3186. Achieving Political Inclusion

Author:: GMF
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Democracies are facing serious stresses at this time. We believe that by making political practice in our democracies more inclusive, we will also make our democracies more robust and enduring, and better showcase this political system which is well suited to organize stable, peaceful and lawful societies for our world on the move. In this reader, we introduce themes for action and share perspectives of diverse political actors and activists in the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) network. We look toward democratic practice where the full involvement of citizens increases the total amount of power available in our societies, rather than zero sum approaches to democratic practice where power is considered to be limited and the temptation is therefore to monopolize and to withhold it.
Topic:: Gender Issues, International Political Economy, and Income Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3187. Fentanyl as a Chemical Weapon

Author:: John P. Caves, Jr.
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Fentanyl is a major topic in the news these days because of its significant contribution to the ongoing opioid epidemic in the United States. It clearly is a major counternarcotic challenge. But there also has been some reporting, including about congressional interest, as to whether fentanyl additionally should be considered a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) and whether U.S. Government chemical defense efforts should place greater emphasis on it. This paper provides some perspective on fentanyl as a chemical weapon.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3188. Baltics Left of Bang: The Role of NATO with Partners in Denial-Based Deterrence

Author:: Robert Klein
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military contribution to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic region should begin with an overall strategic concept that seamlessly transitions from deterrence through countering Russia’s gray zone activities and onto conventional war, only if necessary. NATO should augment its ongoing program to enhance the denial-based deterrence for the region with threats of punishment that demonstrate to Russian leaders they cannot achieve their aims at acceptable costs. Rather than forward-position military forces in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), NATO should consider keeping forces further back to take advantage of strategic depth to limit vulnerability to Russian attack and increase operational flexibility. To support the overall denial-based deterrence concept, the Baltics must commit wholeheartedly to the concept of total defense including significant increases to their active and reserves forces
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3189. The Enduring Relevance of the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:: James J Przystup
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The U.S.-Japan relationship is multifaceted in nature, with rich cultural and educational exchanges, marketbased economies, and shared political values. At its core, however, the relationship is strategic, anchored in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security Between the United States and Japan, a key pillar of the post–World War II international order. The significant bilateral trade frictions of 2017–2018 have not adversely affected the alliance to date. Faced with an ongoing period of global instability and uncertainty, the alliance has continued to evolve to meet the challenges of the 21st century in the Indo-Pacific region. Today, the alliance enjoys broad popular support in both countries, and both governments have been updating and upgrading key elements of this partnership. President Donald Trump's December 2017 National Security Strategy reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the alliance. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has taken steps to enhance Japan’s defense capabilities to allow the country to deal more effectively with the serious security challenges posed by North Korea and China, as well as to allow Japan to address the broadening challenges to the existing rules-based international economic and security order.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3190. U.S. Claims of Illegal Russian Nuclear Testing: Myths, Realities, and Next Steps

Author:: Daryl G. Kimball
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: I n prepared remarks delivered at the Hudson Institute May 29, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, Jr., charged that “Russia probably is not adhering to its nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the ‘zero-yield’ standard outlined in the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).” Russia has vigorously denied the allegation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the accusation “a crude provocation” and pointed to the United States’ failure to ratify the CTBT. On June 12, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, “we are acting in full and absolute accordance with the treaty ratified by Moscow and in full accordance with our unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests.” The DIA director’s remarks, and a subsequent June 13 statement on the subject, are quite clearly part of an effort by Trump administration hardliners to suggest that Russia is conducting nuclear tests to improve its arsenal, and that the United States must be free of any constraints on its own nuclear weapons development effort, and, indirectly, to try to undermine the CTBT itself—a treaty the Trump administration has already said it will not ratify. The challenges posed by the new U.S. allegations are significant and they demand a proactive plan of action by “friends of the CTBT” governments for a number of reasons.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

3191. Technology and National Security: The United States at a Critical Crossroads

Author:: James Kadtke and John Wharton
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Rapid globalization of science and technology (S&T) capacity presents a serious and long-term risk to the military and economic security of the United States. To maintain U.S. preeminence, our domestic science and technology enterprise requires a new paradigm to make it more agile, synchronized, and globally engaged. U.S. technological competitiveness depends not only on research but also on legal, economic, regulatory, ethical, moral, and social frameworks, and therefore requires the vision and cooperation of our political, corporate, and civil society leadership. Re-organizing our domestic S&T enterprise will be a complex task, but recommendations presented in this paper could be first steps on the path to maintaining our future technological security.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3192. Return the Favour with a Thousand Cuts: India’s Pakistan Policy

Author:: Vivek Chadha
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: During the last couple of years, India has recalibrated its policy towards Pakistan by adopting a two-pronged approach. One prong consists of not holding formal talks until Pakistan stops using terrorism as an instrument of state policy against India.1 And the second prong involves retaining the right of retaliation against those elements and locations along the Line of Control (LoC) that are complicit in perpetrating cross border terrorism.2 In essence, India's aim has been to gain leverage over Pakistan by striking it where it hurts the most.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3193. The Unintended Consequences of India’s Policy on Citizenship for Tibetan Refugees

Author:: Yeshi Choedon
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: Most Tibetan refugees arrived in India after the failed revolt against Chinese rule in March 1959. After the defeat of the Tibetan army at the Battle of Chamdo and the signing of the 17 point agreement of May 1951 set the stage for China’s occupation of Tibet, the Tibetan Government did make attempts to adjust to the situation. However, the unrest started after the realisation that China was satisfied not just with the occupation of Tibetan territory but was aiming at the systematic destruction of Tibetan civilization and its complete sinicization. A full-scale national uprising against China’s rule erupted on 10 March 1959, but it was crushed by Chinese military might. This event led to the flight of the Dalai Lama and around 8000 Tibetans, seeking refuge in India and other neighbouring South Asian countries.
Topic:: Refugees
Political Geography:: India and Tibet

3194. Resituating Menser and Darchen-Labrang in the Boundary Negotiations with China

Author:: P. Stobdan
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Abstract:: The recent launch of the China-Pakistan-Economic Corridor (CPEC) by China and Pakistan has provided India with a fresh impetus to assert its sovereign claim over Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), including Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) region, which had hitherto remained in diplomatic abeyance. The Instrument of Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh on October 26, 1947 warranted India’s control over the entire territory of the erstwhile Princely State of Jammu & Kashmir. And, Section 4 of the Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) Constitution defined the State’s territory as comprising all the territories which, on the fifteenth day of August 1947, were under the sovereignty or suzerainty of the Ruler of the Stat
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3195. The Motives and the Consequences of the Gaza Great Return March

Author:: Omar Shaban
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: For four consecutive Fridays, tens of thousands of Gaza’s gather close which began on Friday, 30/3/2018 to the Gaza border with Israel what became known as “Gaza Great Return March, GRM. According to several reports, it can be said that the most the important motive for the Great Return Marches, are the tragic conditions in which Gaza’s live. Gaza has been besieged for more than 11 years. It suffers from a severe Palestinian division, and its people are suffering from a shortage of electricity, water scarcity, and inability to travel. Not to forget the three previous wars that destroyed everything in the Gaza Strip. Not to mention the failure of both options; the peace process led by the PA and armed resistance led by Hamas. The GRM was driven by the siege, the high level of unemployment, the ongoing consequences, up to today of the three wars, and the prevention of freedom of movement. However, raising the slogan “right of return” for the march was a unifying factor that helps to mobilize tens of thousands of participants. This slogan goes beyond any ideologies or socio-political issues. The march has achieved part of the goals, which is to have peaceful movements that begin with the commemoration of Land Day on March 30 till May, 15, the 70th anniversary of the Palestinian Nakba.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Palestine

3196. Between Rome and Sibiu: A Trajectory for the New European Narrative

Author:: Jan Hoogmartens
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Many observers may easily reach the conclusion that the European Union (EU) has been in crisis for the last decade. Against this background, and especially since the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the EU has begun much soul searching to carve out a new path to its future. This Policy Brief addresses the current Future of Europe debate with the Bratislava Roadmap, the Rome Declaration, the Leaders’ Agenda, and other valuable contributions. It raises the question what kind of narrative the European project will need to survive into the future. What kind of Europeans do we wish to be and what sort of Europe do we want to create? Despite growing mistrust of citizens in their own institutions and rising populism, this Policy Brief pleads for enduring support for the values on which the European project is built. These values should remain beacons for the way in which we legitimise, organise and communicate the work of the EU. Even if we cannot always agree on a common destination, Europeans should be able to agree at least on a shared trajectory based on common values. This is a narrative that should inspire Europe again.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3197. Is there an escape from ‘Ever Closer Union’?

Author:: Jean De Ruyt
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The EU Treaty objective of establishing ‘an ever closer Union among the peoples of Europe’ means that European integration is a step by step process
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3198. How to make the most of the EU’s financial potential ?

Author:: Fabian Willermain and Anca Cioriciu
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In the perspective of the post-2020 Multiannual financial Framework (MFF), this policy brief suggests three reforms that would improve the aim of the MFF as both an expression of EUs political priorities and budgetary planning tool. It looks into the potential overhaul of the MFF timeline, its structure in the context of new instruments such as the EFSI, and the strategic combination of different EU financial tools intended to stimulate and interconnect economies across the EU-27.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3199. A Dublin IV recast: A new and improved system?

Author:: Tamara Tubakovic
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: According to member states and EU officials, the European Union is now slowly entering a period of ‘post crisis.’ In this fragile period of stability, the European Commission has begun its task of strengthening the EU’s legislative framework on asylum. The focal point of the Commission’s task has been the reform of the Dublin system which, during the ‘asylum crisis,’ had almost collapsed. This policy brief has three aims. Firstly, it examines how the unprecedented movement of over one million persons seeking international protection to the EU in 2015 led to the fragmentation of the Dublin system. Secondly, it examines the main flaws of the Dublin system, namely the disconnect between the unchanged status quo on the Dublin rules and the ever-changing political and economic environment of the EU. Finally, it examines the Commission’s proposal for the recast of the Dublin system, assessing whether the new elements are adequate in resolving the key problems of the system. It is argued that although the reform does address, to a limited extent, the problems of secondary movement and the overburdening of some member state asylum systems, the reform does not sufficiently resolve the key flaws of Dublin in light of potential future migratory challenges
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3200. Trump Tariffs Primarily Hit Multinational Supply Chains, Harm US Technology Competitiveness

Author:: Mary Lovely
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: he Trump administration’s Section 301 tariffs are an ineffective response to US concerns about China’s high-technology aspirations. They are a prime example of 20th century tools aimed at the knowledge-embodying trade flows of the 21st century. Instead, these tariffs disadvantage American producers and harm US allies operating in East Asia while missing the mark on penalizing Chinese domestic firms that may have misappropriated US and other advanced economies’ technologies.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS