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3142. Building on Digital ID for Inclusive Services: Lessons from India
- Author:
- Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- India has emerged as a leader in building on its biometric digital ID (Aadhaar) to reform service and program delivery. It moved quickly to consolidate the rollout of Aadhaar, and then to embed the unique Aadhaar number into program databases. A range of applications, including digital signature and payments, was then constructed on top of the Aadhaar foundation (the India Stack). Together with partners, the Center for Global Development is analyzing the effects of Aadhaar-based reforms. India offers lessons for many other countries as their focus evolves from rolling out an ID system towards using it to improve the efficiency and inclusivity of service delivery. Some programs using Aadhaar are federally administered but others are implemented at state level. It is already clear that some states and sectors are reforming better than others, generally because of better design of the digital reforms or stronger capacity to implement them. The three programs we discuss below high- light achievements as well as challenges that need to be overcome for greater efficiency and inclusion.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Identities, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
3143. Why Uncertainty in Global Health Interventions Matters—and What We Can Do About It
- Author:
- Kalipso Chalkidou, Anupama Dathan, and Francis Ruiz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Global health interventions, like many public policies, are rife with uncertainty. Will a program, such as a malaria prevention strategy that looks strong on paper, work as intended? Will a new technology, such as a specific drug or device that appears effective in clinical trial settings, work in practice and provide good value-for-money? In the case of programs made up of a complex interaction of multiple interventions, implementers often create a theory of change and then meticulously track whether it is being followed every step of the way, from each input translating into the prespecified activity, and the activities yielding the right outputs and the expected outcomes. When observational data is available that permits quantitative analysis (evaluation), it may also be possible to estimate causal impact in a given setting by applying experimental methods (such as a randomized controlled trial) or quasi-experimental techniques (such as difference-in-difference analysis). Such program evaluations generally consider outputs (e.g. the number of bed nets distributed) and relatively short-term outcomes (e.g. malaria infections following bed net distribution). Many eval- uations also collect data years after the program to identify longer-term impacts. Cost-effectiveness calculations are sometimes conducted after ascertaining the cost and impact of the program, but such analyses aren’t necessarily considered when determining whether to implement a certain program or technology—especially when politics and other concerns get in the way. Discrete clinical interventions and technologies (which are defined as including clinical interven- tions, drugs, diagnostics and even public health programs) are usually the subject of health technolo- gy assessment (HTA) to inform coverage decisions in many contexts. The underpinning evidence base for HTA typically involves a synthesis of randomized trial data, designed to reduce bias in estimating causal inference and relative effectiveness. Trial data is then combined with information from other sources and study designs to develop models of the technology’s long-term health and cost impact in a given context. A key feature of both programs and technologies is uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Intervention, and Pharmaceuticals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3144. Moving Beyond the Emergency: A Whole of Society Approach to the Refugee Response in Bangladesh
- Author:
- Lauren Post, Rachel Landry, and Cindy Huang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Bangladesh provides a significant global public good by hosting over one million Rohingya refugees. Most are living in camps in Cox’s Bazar district, where resources and livelihoods are strained. The refugee situation is likely to be protracted, and medium-term planning is critical. CGD has been working with local and international partners to understand what that medium-term response could look like. This is one of five publications where we outline steps for developing a medium-term plan for Bangladesh, to benefit refugees and their host community alike. The other four cover forest and landscape restoration, trade, private sector investment, and labor mobility.
- Topic:
- Development, Refugees, Social Services, Humanitarian Crisis, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and Asia
3145. When Does “What Works” Work? And What Does that Mean for UK Aid R&D Spend?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny, Euan Ritchie, and G. Lee Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The UK’s Secretary of State for International Development[1] oversees an aid-financed R&D[2] budget that is larger than that of the next 15 biggest donors combined. [3] At the moment, a considerable proportion of that UK R&D spend goes towards solving global technological challenges related to neglected tropical diseases including malaria, and a considerable proportion again towards local evaluation of aid-financed development interventions. Much of the rest is somewhat opaquely distributed to British universities for research supposedly related to development. As well as reform of this last category, the range of more legitimate activities benefiting from ODA “research and development” calls for innovation in approaches to deliver outcomes. This paper will argue there is a (fuzzy) spectrum of development procedures, for some of which global innovation, evaluation, or “best practice” can be informative, for some of which local evaluation or experimentation can be useful, and for some of which perhaps only practical experience and local wisdom can help. That there is a spectrum of intervention types and research opportunities, and that local evidence is often required, has implications for the kind of research that UK aid can usefully support as part of its R&D program and where that research should happen. In turn, that suggests a reform agenda for the way UK ODA for R&D is currently spent.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Research
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
3146. ABCs of the IFIs: The African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development
- Author:
- Scott Morris, Erin Collinson, and Alysha Gardner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The African Development Bank (AfDB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) are among the international financial institutions seeking pledges from donor countries as part of upcoming replenishment cycles in 2019 and 2020. The United States is a leading donor to these funds and has played a crucial role in shaping the institutions’ agendas throughout their histories.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Finance, Banks, Institutions, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia
3147. Strengthening European Leadership on Global Health Security
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman, Jeremy Konyndyk, and Liesl Schnabel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Impending leadership transitions in EU institutions provide a unique opportunity to bolster European action on global health security. This would be a double win for the EU: advancing its efforts to foster progress in developing countries while also protecting Europe itself against potential disease risks. To help strengthen the EU’s leadership on global health security, the new Commission should
- Topic:
- Security, Health, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3148. Redesigning the External Investment Plan to be a Game-Changer for Africa
- Author:
- Mikaela Gavas
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Despite their potential to achieve high development impact, projects in the poorest and most fragile countries, most in sub-Saharan Africa, are chronically underfinanced by Euro- pean development finance institutions and private investors owing to real or perceived low risk-adjusted returns. The External Investment Plan and its risk-mitigation tools, if struc- tured right, have the potential to mobilise investment where the need is greatest. To make this happen, the new European Commission should n clarify the strategic objectives of external investment and steer it towards leveraging high-risk capital for underserved markets; n explicitly focus assistance on the poorest countries through clear project selection criteria; n provide demand-driven technical assistance and oper- ationalise policy dialogue to improve the business envi- ronment; and n federate the development finance institutions focusing on steering policy, encouraging best practice, and har- monising procedures and results amongst the develop- ment finance institutions and multilateral development banks.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa
3149. Reforming EU Trade Policy to Accelerate Economic Transformation in Africa
- Author:
- Hannah Timmis and Ian Mitchell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As the rest of the developing world has reaped the benefits of rapid globalisation, Africa has remained marginalised in international trade. The new European Commission has an opportunity to accelerate export-led growth on the continent by introducing a bolder, more coherent policy on trade, agriculture, and aid.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Economic Development, and Economic Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
3150. Automation and AI: Implications for African Development Prospects?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Now that computers are capable of taking the jobs that require brain as well as brawn, it may appear there is little left for humans to do. There are many scary forecasts of the capacity of automation and AI to replace a lot of workers very fast. Self-driving vehicles may wipe out opportunities for taxi driv- ers and truckers, for example. Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson note there are 3.5 million people em- ployed driving vehicles in the US. If automation reduced that to 1.5 million, that alone would increase total US labor productivity by 1.7 percent,1 but it would also leave two million drivers looking for work. In 2013, Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne made waves by predicting that 47 percent of US employment was automatable over the next two decades, with a higher estimate for developing countries.2 Erin Winick of Technology Review subsequently produced a summary table of job losses and gains estimations on automation.3 Some of the worldwide figures are in Table 1. There are clearly two sides to the ledger, but some of the predicted job loss numbers at the global level are considerable. The forecasts suggest bad news for Africa in particular, given concentration in types of low-skill jobs that might be easy to automate, rising working age populations, and already far too few good jobs to occupy the existing population. Arntz et al. suggest the share of workers at high risk of automation is 40 percent amongst those with a lower secondary education and above 50 percent for those with primary or less education.4 Advanced manufacturing and AI applications including automated call centers might even reverse the trend towards manufacturing and low-skilled services moving to developing countries. That would imperil a recent run of global income convergence. And there have been cases of impact al- ready: Foxconn replacing 30 percent of its workforce when it introduced robots, and 1,000 lost jobs in Vietnam when Adidas shuttered a factory and moved production to “speed factories” in Germany and the US. If this is the beginning of a trend, it would be harmful to African development prospects.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa