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3101. A Canadian Primer to the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan

Author:
Colin Robertson
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
On Friday, June 28, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hosts the leaders of the 19 major economic nations and the European Union in Osaka, Japan. As G20 finance ministers noted after their meeting earlier this month “growth remains low and risks remain tilted to the downside. Most importantly, trade and geopolitical tensions have intensified.” Created in the wake of the 2007-2008 “Great Recession”, the G20 is economic multilateralism at work, an insurance policy to prevent globalization going off the rails. This 14th G20 summit is the culmination of a year-long series of ministerial meetings, hosted throughout Japan.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada

3102. Searching for a Middle-Power Role in a New World Order

Author:
Eugene Lang
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The “America First” agenda will persist well beyond the life of the Trump administration. Washington no longer “has Canada’s back”. We are living in a new age of great power rivalry. Populism poses a major challenge to the rules-based international order. Adult supervision in global politics is in short supply. These are some of the themes that surfaced during a recent CGAI conference titled What Role for Canada on the Global Stage? Implied, if unstated, was that Canada is adrift internationally on these waters, in search of a role in a new world order of which most Canadians seem unaware. The question remained: How should Canada respond to these new global currents in a way befitting a middle power entering the third decade of the 21st century?
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3103. The Sub-Optimal Effect of Decreasing Military Capability – A Canadian Study

Author:
Ross Fetterly
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Defence budgets seldom remain constant, despite the long-term orientation required in defence planning. However, short-term fluctuations in funding can disrupt military programs and activities, and the impact can last several years. This is, in part, due to the unique mix of personnel, equipment and operations, which the defence budget funds. In times of rapid and unplanned defence budget reductions, short-term decisions can be made that are not necessarily in the best interest of the efficient and effective management of the armed forces. Indeed, significant unforecasted funding reductions could produce and reinforce dysfunctional behaviour. Defence budget reductions, to be effective, must include reductions in each of personnel, operations and maintenance, and capital categories in order to maintain a balance between current demands and building future capability. This study uses the Royal Canadian Navy to demonstrate the fundamental cost relationships in the management and operation of defence forces, which become evident during periods of rapid funding reductions. Fiscal year 2004-2005 is used as the baseline year for the study. The Canadian navy is used as a case study, although similar case studies could have been done for the Canadian army or air force. The Canadian navy has warships divided between the East and West coasts, with one naval base on each coast. This study reduces the number of ships, and associated base support on each coast, in a defined sequence until all ships are eliminated, and illustrates potential savings throughout this process. The study concludes that unless infrastructure, as well as the number of military and civilian personnel, is reduced as ships are decommissioned, savings are minimal.
Topic:
National Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada

3104. Anatomy of a Buy: The Four Dimensions of Procuring a Future Fighter for Canada

Author:
Alan Stephenson
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Purchasing a fleet of fighter aircraft is a complex process with many variables and the Canadian government has a duty to ensure the billions of procurement dollars required are properly spent. The interplay between the four dimensions involved in military procurement (military, technological, economic, and political) defies simple analysis. The government has directed the Canadian Armed Forces to ensure Canadian sovereignty, defend North America, and engage in extraterritorial missions. The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) has responded to its responsibilities to support these commitments with a thorough, capability-based Statement of Requirements for the future fighter, taking critical functionalities of operating in the future battlespace and emerging technologies into consideration.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3105. Does Canada Need a Foreign Policy Review?

Author:
Randolf Mank
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Canada’s contemporary foreign policy has been shaped by deep integration with, and dependence on, the United States, offset by multilateral support for a rules-based international order. The Trump administration’s confrontational nationalism, combined with other global events and trends, has now disrupted Canada’s position and assumptions. This raises the question of whether or not it’s time for a Canadian foreign policy review. While the Trudeau government deserves credit for several initiatives, a series of discontinuities in Canada’s domestic and foreign policies suggests that our interests could be better served. The Canadian government has two main options: it can follow its current path of adjusting its policies in an ad hoc fashion, while waiting out the Trump administration and hoping for more favourable successors, or it can attempt to set Canada on a new path, in which case a foreign policy review would be warranted.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada

3106. Overcoming ‘Boom and Bust’? Analyzing National Shipbuilding Plans in Canada and Australia

Author:
Jeff Collins
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
While both Canada and Australia share similar constitutional frameworks and imperial histories, they are also no stranger to procurement challenges. Cost overruns, delays, regionalism, and protracted intellectual property disputes have all been part of major defence acquisition projects in recent decades. This Policy Paper analyzes the largest and most expensive procurement projects undertaken by either country, Canada’s $73 billion (estimated) National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS), launched in 2010, and Australia’s A$90 billion Naval Shipbuilding Plan (NSP), launched in 2017. Each project represents an attempt to implement a rational, multi-decade approach to naval acquisition. Driven by a desire to overcome previous boom-and-bust cycles, the NSS and NSP aim to create a sustainable shipbuilding sector capable of meeting the immediate and future naval demands of Ottawa and Canberra. Neither country has attempted a shipbuilding plan on this scale before.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3107. The Arctic is Warming and Turning Red: Implications for Canada and Russia in an Evolving Polar Region

Author:
Ron Wallace
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Canada and the Russian Federation have pursued significantly different strategies for economic development and security in their respective circumpolar regions. These policies have resulted in very different northern strategic outcomes. While Canada and its circumpolar neighbours (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and the United States) have advanced their polar resource claims through the UN, Russia has taken additional bold steps to secure its polar resources. Events since 2000 have demonstrated a fierce Russian political resolve to secure its economic independence from the West and to achieve a prominent place on the world geopolitical stage. In a steadily warming Arctic, Russia has recognized the potential economic and strategic significance of its Northern Sea Route and is now the foremost military and shipping leader in the circumpolar region. Russia continues to accelerate its efforts to re-open abandoned former Soviet Siberian military bases and to construct new operational bases. The largest Russian military build-up in the polar region since 1991 provides an indication that, consistent with its geopolitical aspirations, Russia is prepared to assert and defend its Arctic resources and sea routes. This accelerating Russian presence and military capability, paralleled by certain Chinese initiatives (China increasingly views itself as a near-Arctic state) have occasioned not just re-evaluations, but a reinvigoration of certain Arctic defence postures among circumpolar allies in NATO.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3108. Unblocking the Bottlenecks and Making the Global Supply Chain Transparent: How blockchain technology can update global trade

Author:
Hanna Norberg
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Blockchain technology is still in its infancy, but already it has begun to revolutionize global trade. Its lure is irresistible because of the simplicity with which it can replace the standard methods of documentation, smooth out logistics, increase transparency, speed up transactions, and ameliorate the planning and tracking of trade. Blockchain essentially provides the supply chain with an unalterable ledger of verified transactions, and thus enables trust every step of the way through the trade process. Every stakeholder involved in that process – from producer to warehouse worker to shipper to financial institution to recipient at the final destination – can trust that the information contained in that indelible ledger is accurate. Fraud will no longer be an issue, middlemen can be eliminated, shipments tracked, quality control maintained to highest standards and consumers can make decisions based on more than the price. Blockchain dramatically reduces the amount of paperwork involved, along with the myriad of agents typically involved in the process, all of this resulting in soaring efficiencies.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3109. Updating an ODA Policy in Canada: The Role of Global Remittances in Development

Author:
Cynthia Bansak and Nicole Simpson
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The federal government has pledged to update Canada’s official development assistance (ODA) policy and this paper examines the potential important role of remittances in the development program. Remittances can serve as a significant form of cross-border capital flows and can have sizable effects on both the sending and receiving countries. This policy piece provides an overview of trends in global remittances and gives a context for the policy discussion on the relationship between remittances and ODA. The paper discusses the primary reasons behind global remittances and their impacts on sending and receiving countries, with a particular emphasis on Canada, the United States and Mexico. Past findings provide insight into the reasons and impacts of remittances on both developed and developing countries. Within the context of Canada, the paper also examines how remittances have been able to complement and possibly drive other development reform efforts domestically and abroad. The goal of the analysis is to help inform the policy discussion in Canada and concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the Canadian federal government.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3110. Investing in Renewable Energy in Azerbaijan: A Valuation of Three Alternative Investment Scenarios

Author:
Tim Kerckhoff
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The government of Azerbaijan has expressed ambitious plans to ramp up the share of electricity gen-erated from renewable and alternative energy. Currently, most electricity in Azerbaijan is produced from fossil fuels, including natural gas. Beyond being the source of almost all electricity produced in Azerbaijan, oil and gas exports form the backbone of the Azerbaijani economy–making it highly sus-ceptible to price volatility in the global markets. Between 2018 and 2020, however, the government aims to increase its capacity for generating electricity from wind, solar and biomass by 420 Mega-Wat
Topic:
Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

3111. Comparative Study of the Automotive Industry in Azerbaijan

Author:
Orkhan Huseynov
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The automotive industry is a major employment generator in many economies, with millions of people earning their livelihood, both directly and indirectly. According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (IOMVM), the current turnover of the automobile industry is around 2 trillion EURO and is equivalent to the size of 6th largest economy in the world. While there has been a growth momentum for the global automotive industry in the past, it is also facing challenges of late, especially in view of the increasing cost of production and slowing down of demand. The world automotive industry is also faced with the challenge of undertaking R&D and designing fuel-efficient vehicles in view of volatile oil prices. The environmental challenges have also assumed critical importance to the automotive industry at the backdrop of climatic change
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3112. The Business environment: economic reforms in the context of institutional shortcomings

Author:
Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The existence of a well-functioning business environment is a key factor in the diversification of the economy, the efficient use of available resources and ensuring sustainable growth. The business environment, in its turn, should be regarded as a composite of conditions that incorporate quite complex components. If one or more of the composition components are not functioning appropriately, the result you will get is not adequate to the available capacity. The existence of contemporary institutions is the absolute requirement for a "good business environment", performing functions such as coordinating all other economic advantages, organizing appropriate arrangements, and risk management.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3113. CESD Research Brief: Should we expect a change in the rate of Azerbaijani manat in context of high demand for US dollar?

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
In January-February of 2019, activity in foreign exchange markets has further escalated. According to the information provided by the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), during the corresponding period 951 million US dollars were sold, including 634.9 million in January and 316.2 million in February. This is 47.2% higher than the same period of the previous year.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3114. Azerbaijani Economy 2018: Results and Perspectives

Author:
Rashad Hasanov
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Following the recession and stagnation of the economy of Azerbaijan in 2015-2017, a growth of 1.4% was recorded in 2018. Economic growth has been mainly driven by the following factors. Favorable foreign economic environment for Azerbaijan from the context of oil prices: the initial forecast of the oil prices by the Azerbaijani government at the beginning of 2018 was 45 US dollars per barrel. Then, during the second half of the year, the forecast was adjusted to 55 US dollars per barrel. However, the actual price of one barrel of oil for the reporting period was above 71 US dollars (29% higher than forecasted)…
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3115. The CESD Assessment on the 2019 State Budget Project

Author:
Dan Breban
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The current external macroeconomic conditions observed throughout the year of 2018, such as increasing rates by FED/ECB, exerts certain pressure on the economies of developing nations. Despite hovering well-over its predicted value for most of the year, the recent decline in the price of oil once again puts question marks for the future of the commodity. Considering all of the above mentioned facts in mind, dependence of 2019 state budget of Azerbaijan on oil, where 50.4% of revenues directly come from the oil sector further makes the country more vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. The largest hike is observed in the amount of revenues collected through the excise taxes while the biggest decline is in income taxes, reflecting the new amendments to the tax code. Expenditures of the state budget are going to be 7.3% higher in 2019, with the most significant boost observed in construction sector. This fact undermines the efficiency of the public funds, as the expenditures towards construction are more likely to become subject of mismanagement. When looking at the SOFAZ’s budget, a clear trend of increasingly allocating more and more funds to the state budget can be seen. As expected, new amendments were made to the fiscal rule in order to make it more flexible, however, the effectiveness of these changes are still unclear.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3116. Baku-Tbilisi-Kars: Regional Implications and Perspectives

Author:
Victoria Bittner
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The establishment of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy as a part of the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) sets new objectives for the deepening of cooperation between the EU and EaP countries, and the greater integration of the EaP based on shared norms, values and standards. Forming the eastern divide of the ENP, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia are considered official neighbors of the EU, although half of these countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) do not lie on the immediate borders of the EU. However, these South Caucasian countries play an important transit role by connecting the EU with Central Asia and China. Hence, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railroad, crossing Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, establishes a significant link in the further development and integration of regional and global transit corridors stretching from China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3117. The Next Generation Automobile Industry as a Creative Industry

Author:
Seio Nakajima
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to describe the recent transformation of the automobile industry from a manufacturing industry to include aspects of the service and creative industries. Firstly, it reviews the recent trend of the automobile industry as a service industry. Secondly, it discusses the automobile industry’s move toward the creative industries. It examines these two trends, mostly based on the next-generation automobile industry in Japan. Finally, it discusses the implications of the above transformation of the automobile industry on academic studies of the creative industries, and argues for what it calls a strong programme in creative industries studies. It also provides a provisional note on government policies in the era of the next-generation automobile industry.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3118. ASEAN Vision 2040: Towards a Bolder and Stronger ASEAN Community

Author:
Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Volume I consists of the integrative report and executive summary of ASEAN Vision 2040, and a briefer on new challenges and key priorities and strategies. ASEAN Vision 2040 has been drawn up in the context of ASEAN’s achievements, revealed aspirations, and expectations of the peoples of ASEAN for the near future, and the recent and expected global, regional, and technological developments. The volume presents the ASEAN Vision 2040 and highlights key areas of collective leadership and ASEAN centrality, harnessing the emerging Industry 4.0 to transform the ASEAN economies and enhance ASEAN resiliency and developmental sustainability, realising a seamless ASEAN, engendering greater inclusivity, and a deeper sense of community and belonging, and strengthening the ASEAN institutional ecosystem.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3119. The Prevention Agenda: Mapping Out Member States’ Concerns

Author:
Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Despite recent positive developments making forward progress on the Secretary-General’s call for a more preventive approach to crisis, in New York, discussions on prevention remain focused on difficult moments of crisis and must navigate deepening divisions in the Security Council
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3120. Reaching Tibet in July 1900 via British India and Nepal: Journey of the First Japanese, Ekai Kawaguchi

Author:
Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
Archival accounts of 19th centur y Tibet describe it as the forbidden, inaccessible, daunting and remotely unreachable territory of the Himalayas. Lhasa, the religious and administrative capital of Tibet since the mid-17th century literally meant “Place of the Gods” located at an elevation of about 3,600 m (11,800 ft) at the center of the Tibetan Plateau with the surrounding mountains rising to 5,500 m (18,000 ft). The air in this part contained only 68 percent oxygen compared to sea level, thereby indicating the geographic difficulties of the terrain. Tibet has stirred the curiosity amongst explorers, adventurists and researchers as being amongst the few places in the world that fired the imagination of adventurers. Owing to Buddhism, Japan, quite evidently had far more incentive than most others to reach Tibet, and ultimately, Lhasa. It was in the backdrop of these existential conditions that Ekai Kawaguchi (1866-1945) a Buddhist monk became the first Japanese explorer to embark upon a journey fraught with danger and uncertainty in May 1897 from Tokyo, to have succeeded in touching the frontier of the roof of the world, as he stepped on Tibetan soil for the first time on July 4, 1900
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3121. Does Australia have an “Indo Pacific strategy”?

Author:
Thomas Wilkins
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
The US Department of Defense (DOD) released its longawaited Indo Pacific Strategy Report (IPSR) in tandem with the IISS-Shangrila Dialogue in Singapore on 1 June 2019. This IPSR appears to subsume or extend the earlier Free and Open Indo Pacific (FOIP) strategy (sometimes referred to now as a “vision”) into a more comprehensive regional Indo Pacific Strategy (IPS), that is anchored in the earlier 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) and 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) documents. Australia has yet to produce an analogous document dedicated to profiling its own “Indo Pacific Strategy”, but with the US iteration in view, it is possible to construct an plausible image of such a strategy in the Australian case by drawing upon various pertinent materials from a range of government sources. Indeed, the notion of an overarching IPs is gradually taking shape in Australian strategic thinking, as testified to by a variety of official documents, including large portions of the 2016 Defence White Paper, and especially 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, alongside other policy statements and initiatives, framed in the context of analysis and debate undertaken by nationally-based strategic commentators. A small case “s” in “Indo Pacific strategy” is specifically employed in this paper to distinguish the author’s conception from any formally mandated government “Strategy”
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3122. The Role for Middle Powers in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Looking at Opportunities for Canada and Australia

Author:
John Berkshire Miller
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
The Indo-Pacific, as a geographic concept that connects the vast oceans of Pacific and the Indian along with the states in between, is not a new idea. Indeed, the idea of a broader geographic region – rather than more traditional subsets such as East Asia, South Asia, or the more expansive Asia-Pacific – has been used for more than a decade by scholars and practitioners in the region. An Indian naval captain began using the concept in geopolitical terms more than a decade ago, but the terminology has not been limited to scholars in Delhi. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, back during his first stint as Prime Minister in 2007, spoke to India’s parliament about his country’s vision for Indo-Pacific noting a “confluence of the two seas”2 and pressed for a need to transcend beyond traditional frameworks that often separated or minimized the geopolitical connections between South Asian and the Indian Ocean region with that of East Asia and the Pacific
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3123. Territorial Annexation of Tibet

Author:
Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
Histor y often tends to repeat itself, or as Spanish-American philosopher, Jorge Agustín Santayana wrote in 1905-06 in The Life of Reason, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. While setting out to write on, or about Tibet, it is inevitable to conclude that there never was, or will be, a long walk to freedom either for Tibet, or for the holy chair of the successive Dalai Lamas – the god and king-in-one incarnation of Chen-re-zi, the Lord of Mercy – the patron deity of Tibet. The Dalai Lama not only governs his subjects in this life, but can influence their rebirth in the next, or as Tibetans believe is the “Ruler in this life, the Uplifter in the hereafter.”1
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3124. Countering Foreign Influence and Interference in Open Societies

Author:
Hideshi Tokuchi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
It is almost a cliché that Australia and New Zealand are canaries in the coal mine for Chinese attempts at exerting political influence.1 In fact, Chinese influence is not a topic that affects just Oceania. It is already a serious challenge that confronts all democracies and open societies. According to Clive Hamilton’s “Silent Invasion,” a Chinese diplomat who sought political asylum in Australia told Hamilton that Australia’s openness, relatively small population, a large number of Chinese immigrants and commitment to multiculturalism have weakened Australia’s capacity to recognize and defend against the Chinese infiltration, but all democracies and open societies are susceptible to the threat
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3125. Containing the Border Fallout of Colombia’s New Guerrilla Schism

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tensions are rising on the Colombia-Venezuela border after a new guerrilla faction opted out of Colombia’s 2016 peace deal. With diplomatic ties between the two countries severed, the risk of escalation is high. Bogotá and Caracas should open channels of communication to avoid inter-state clashes
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3126. Seven Opportunities for the UN in 2019-2020

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In a period of increasing international tensions, the role of the UN in resolving major crises is shrinking. World leaders attending the UN General Assembly this month will talk about conflicts from Latin America to Asia. The chances of diplomatic breakthroughs have appeared low, even if this week’s departure of Iran hawk John Bolton from the Trump administration increased speculation about the possibility of a meeting in New York between U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Looking beyond the General Assembly, opportunities for the Security Council to resolve pressing conflicts – or for Secretary-General António Guterres and other UN officials to do so without Council mandates – seem few. But some nevertheless exist. In cases where the permanent five members of the council (P5) have a shared interest in de-escalating crises, or regional powers collaborate with UN agencies to address conflicts, the organisation can still provide a framework for successful peacemaking.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3127. Strong Leadership And Effective Partnerships For Successful Municipal FTTP Projects

Author:
Jennifer Terry
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Access to affordable, high-speed Internet is essential for individuals, businesses, and government to function effectively in the 21st century. Many U.S. and European communities lack access to affordable, high-speed Internet. Communities have tried to address this issue by building municipally-owned fiber networks or by engaging the private sector in municipal efforts to expand access to affordable, high-speed Internet.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3128. Revitalizing Democracy Assistance To Counter Threats To Democratization

Author:
David Black
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The global prospects for democratization and democracy assistance are worse than at any time in several decades due to the culmination of six trends: a backlash against democracy assistance, disillusionment with the Western model of liberal democracy, increasingly resilient authoritarianism, efforts by Russia to undermine democratic institutions and development, China’s alternative development model, and the spread of “digital authoritarian” technology. Democracy assistance has been adapting to these trends, but proponents of democracy are being outpaced by those who seek to undermine democracy or promote alternative models that are less sustainable, just, or equitable.
Topic:
International Affairs and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3129. Transatlantic Cooperation on Asia and the Trump Administration

Author:
Andrew Small
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic cooperation on Asia, and on China in particular, is still characterized by missed opportunities and self-imposed obstacles. Yet it would be a mistake to underplay the constructive developments that have occurred during the Trump administration. At the working level, a great deal of groundwork has now been laid for the joint efforts that will be necessary on a range of Asia policy issues.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3130. Reform In Armenia Assessing Progress and Opportunities for U.S. Policy

Author:
Johnathan Katz
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Thank you for the opportunity to join this distinguished panel to discuss Armenia’s democratic transformation and steps the United States and other international partners can take to work with the government in Yerevan, along with Armenian citizens and the Armenian diaspora, to strengthen rule of law and transparency in Armenia. As you may be aware, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and our Black Sea Trust based in Bucharest continue to support democracy, civil society, and free media in Armenia and across Eastern Europe.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Armenia

3131. Achieving Political Inclusion

Author:
GMF
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Democracies are facing serious stresses at this time. We believe that by making political practice in our democracies more inclusive, we will also make our democracies more robust and enduring, and better showcase this political system which is well suited to organize stable, peaceful and lawful societies for our world on the move. In this reader, we introduce themes for action and share perspectives of diverse political actors and activists in the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) network. We look toward democratic practice where the full involvement of citizens increases the total amount of power available in our societies, rather than zero sum approaches to democratic practice where power is considered to be limited and the temptation is therefore to monopolize and to withhold it.
Topic:
Gender Issues, International Political Economy, and Income Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3132. Fentanyl as a Chemical Weapon

Author:
John P. Caves, Jr.
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Fentanyl is a major topic in the news these days because of its significant contribution to the ongoing opioid epidemic in the United States. It clearly is a major counternarcotic challenge. But there also has been some reporting, including about congressional interest, as to whether fentanyl additionally should be considered a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) and whether U.S. Government chemical defense efforts should place greater emphasis on it. This paper provides some perspective on fentanyl as a chemical weapon.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3133. Baltics Left of Bang: The Role of NATO with Partners in Denial-Based Deterrence

Author:
Robert Klein
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military contribution to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic region should begin with an overall strategic concept that seamlessly transitions from deterrence through countering Russia’s gray zone activities and onto conventional war, only if necessary. NATO should augment its ongoing program to enhance the denial-based deterrence for the region with threats of punishment that demonstrate to Russian leaders they cannot achieve their aims at acceptable costs. Rather than forward-position military forces in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), NATO should consider keeping forces further back to take advantage of strategic depth to limit vulnerability to Russian attack and increase operational flexibility. To support the overall denial-based deterrence concept, the Baltics must commit wholeheartedly to the concept of total defense including significant increases to their active and reserves forces
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3134. The Enduring Relevance of the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
James J Przystup
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The U.S.-Japan relationship is multifaceted in nature, with rich cultural and educational exchanges, marketbased economies, and shared political values. At its core, however, the relationship is strategic, anchored in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security Between the United States and Japan, a key pillar of the post–World War II international order. The significant bilateral trade frictions of 2017–2018 have not adversely affected the alliance to date. Faced with an ongoing period of global instability and uncertainty, the alliance has continued to evolve to meet the challenges of the 21st century in the Indo-Pacific region. Today, the alliance enjoys broad popular support in both countries, and both governments have been updating and upgrading key elements of this partnership. President Donald Trump's December 2017 National Security Strategy reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the alliance. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has taken steps to enhance Japan’s defense capabilities to allow the country to deal more effectively with the serious security challenges posed by North Korea and China, as well as to allow Japan to address the broadening challenges to the existing rules-based international economic and security order.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3135. U.S. Claims of Illegal Russian Nuclear Testing: Myths, Realities, and Next Steps

Author:
Daryl G. Kimball
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
I n prepared remarks delivered at the Hudson Institute May 29, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, Jr., charged that “Russia probably is not adhering to its nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the ‘zero-yield’ standard outlined in the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).” Russia has vigorously denied the allegation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the accusation “a crude provocation” and pointed to the United States’ failure to ratify the CTBT. On June 12, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, “we are acting in full and absolute accordance with the treaty ratified by Moscow and in full accordance with our unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests.” The DIA director’s remarks, and a subsequent June 13 statement on the subject, are quite clearly part of an effort by Trump administration hardliners to suggest that Russia is conducting nuclear tests to improve its arsenal, and that the United States must be free of any constraints on its own nuclear weapons development effort, and, indirectly, to try to undermine the CTBT itself—a treaty the Trump administration has already said it will not ratify. The challenges posed by the new U.S. allegations are significant and they demand a proactive plan of action by “friends of the CTBT” governments for a number of reasons.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

3136. Mexico’s Financial Risks: Solving Pemex for a Solvent Mexico

Author:
Laura Alfaro, Augusto de la Torre, Guillermo Calvo, Roque Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Paulo Leme, Enrique G. Mendoza, Guillermo Perry, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Mexico’s financial risks and the policies being adopted by the new administration cannot be ade- quately assessed without recognizing key features that characterize the following initial conditions:
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Finance, Economic Growth, and Risk
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

3137. Trends in Private Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries: Good and Not-So-Good News

Author:
Nancy Lee and Asad Sami
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Interest in mobilizing private finance for SDG investments is surging in a world of stagnating aid, limited fiscal space, and rising LIC debt. But is more reliance on private finance realistic for LICs? This paper explores the performance since the global financial crisis of one source of private finance for LICs: cross-border private capital inflows. Much of the evidence is encouraging, and some of it flies in the face of conventional wisdom. For LICs, private capital inflows are an important and growing source of finance. For the median LIC, private capital inflows are now as large as ODA as a share of GDP. And the FDI component—most of LIC inflows—has been stable and resilient throughout the post-crisis period. Importantly, inflows are not all captured by resource-rich LICs. In 2017, more than half of capital inflows to LICs went to non-resource-rich LICs. Increasingly, policies, not just resource endowments, shape LIC destinations for foreign capital. The relation between median capital inflows/GDP and median regulatory quality is significantly positive for non-resource-rich LICs. And sources of FDI are diversifying. In 2016, China’s stock of FDI in Africa was almost as large as that of the traditional investors: the US, UK, and France. But there is also not-so-good news. Median private capital inflow/GDP ratios are not positively correlated with median private domestic investment/GDP in LICs. Nor is there a significant relationship with median public investment/GDP. The apparent lack of complementarity between foreign and domestic investment may point to problems related to investment enclaves and/or the role of the state in LIC economies. As in other countries, non-FDI inflows to LICs are volatile and sensitive to global commodity prices and interest rates. We find no relation between median country per capita income levels and private inflows/GDP, highlighting the need for caution in IDA graduation policies.
Topic:
Development, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Private Sector, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3138. Chinese Leadership and the Future of BRI: What Key Decisions Lie Ahead?

Author:
Brad Parks
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
It’s 2028. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been underway for 15 years, but the initial enthusiasm and momentum behind BRI has vanished. Many of the governments that initially joined the initiative have publicly withdrawn or quietly wound down their participation. China’s staunchest allies remain engaged but even they have reservations about the wisdom of the initiative. They are saddled with unproductive public investment projects and struggling to service their debts. Domestic public sentiment towards China has soured, and they have come to view their participation in BRI as more of a political liability than an asset. But they worry about the consequences of alienating their most important patron and creditor. China has also assumed a defensive posture. Lacking the goodwill that it possessed at the beginning of BRI, it is now using inducements and threats to prevent its remaining clients from abandoning the initiative. Western donors and lenders watch from the sidelines with a sense of bemusement. They encouraged China to “multilateralize” BRI by establishing a common set of project appraisal standards, procurement guidelines, fiduciary controls, and social and environmental safeguards that other aid agencies and development banks could support. But Beijing chose to go it alone. It opted not to embrace the use of economic rate-of-return analysis to vet project proposals; resisted efforts to harmonize its environmental, social, and fiduciary safeguards with those used by aid agencies and development banks outside of China; and pushed back on the “Western” suggestion that it modernize its monitoring and evaluation practices. China bet that its fast and flexible approach to infrastructure finance would prove to be so compelling that traditional donors and lenders would eventually jump on the bandwagon and co-finance BRI projects. But it miscalculated. Its model was insufficiently attractive on its merits to enlist the participation and support of the other major players in the bilateral and multilateral development finance market. Nor was it sufficiently appealing to sustain elite and public support in partner countries.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Leadership, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3139. Five Things the Health Minister Should Do to Enhance the UK’s Global Health Footprint

Author:
Kalipso Chalkidou
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As Health Secretary Matt Hancock returns to his role as part of Boris Johnson’s premiership, he has an opportunity to make good on the UK’s renewed confidence and ambition by drawing on what the new prime minister calls the “best healthcare [system]” to drive improvements in health globally. The UK’s Department of Health and Social Care controls its biggest-ever official development assistance (ODA) budget, doubling between 2017 and 2018 to just under £200m, or 1.3 percent of the country’s aid allocation. This places the UK’s secretary of state for health in a unique position to truly make a difference in countries’ journeys towards universal healthcare coverage (UHC), whilst also defending (and making a case for more of) the ODA money his department has been allocated, even to development aid’s harshest critics. Here are five things he can do to make this happen, both using his own department’s ODA budget and influencing how DFID’s majority share is spent.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Health Care Policy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3140. Five Takeaways on the Future of Humanitarian Reform

Author:
Jeremy Konyndyk
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The world’s humanitarian aid architecture is growing outdated. Relief programs are most effective when they are integrated, locally owned, and demand driven. But humanitarian action in the 21st century remains constrained by a 20th-century aid model: siloed, supply driven, and centered on the individual mandates and sectors of major international aid agencies. This makes aid both less effective and less responsive than it could be. In a world where displacement is at the highest levels in generations, climate disasters are increasing, and humanitarian funding is beginning to level off, this disconnect is no longer tenable. But fixing it is not a simple matter—multiple rounds of humanitarian reform over the past 15 years have made progress but fallen short of fundamental change. Earlier this summer in Geneva, CGD convened two high-level private roundtables, one with leaders from humanitarian donor institutions and another with senior executives from major humanitarian aid agencies (both multilaterals and NGOs), to discuss how to make humanitarian aid more cohesive and user-centered. The meetings were part of a multiyear research initiative exploring how modernizing the humanitarian business model and humanitarian governance are integral to improving field-level humanitarian impact. CGD teed up the conversation with three emerging ideas from our research (you can see the presentation slides here). These ideas—the subjects of several forthcoming papers CGD is developing —explore ways of better aligning aid delivery around enhanced impact toward affected people’s priorities
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Reform, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3141. Promoting Investment in Research for Development Outcomes: A Research Ventures Fund at the World Bank

Author:
Scott Morris
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This note proposes a new Research Ventures Fund (RVF) at the World Bank to better prioritize R&D investments in support of development progress. The RVF would employ financing mechanisms that are consistent with research needs: significant scale and scope, patience, and tolerance for failure. Existing development-oriented research consortia like CGIAR would provide a promising start for RVF funding allocations. Donors to the IDA-19 replenishment should take the first step in securing funding for the new fund in 2019.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, World Bank, Finance, Research, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3142. Building on Digital ID for Inclusive Services: Lessons from India

Author:
Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
India has emerged as a leader in building on its biometric digital ID (Aadhaar) to reform service and program delivery. It moved quickly to consolidate the rollout of Aadhaar, and then to embed the unique Aadhaar number into program databases. A range of applications, including digital signature and payments, was then constructed on top of the Aadhaar foundation (the India Stack). Together with partners, the Center for Global Development is analyzing the effects of Aadhaar-based reforms. India offers lessons for many other countries as their focus evolves from rolling out an ID system towards using it to improve the efficiency and inclusivity of service delivery. Some programs using Aadhaar are federally administered but others are implemented at state level. It is already clear that some states and sectors are reforming better than others, generally because of better design of the digital reforms or stronger capacity to implement them. The three programs we discuss below high- light achievements as well as challenges that need to be overcome for greater efficiency and inclusion.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Identities, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
India and Asia

3143. Why Uncertainty in Global Health Interventions Matters—and What We Can Do About It

Author:
Kalipso Chalkidou, Anupama Dathan, and Francis Ruiz
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Global health interventions, like many public policies, are rife with uncertainty. Will a program, such as a malaria prevention strategy that looks strong on paper, work as intended? Will a new technology, such as a specific drug or device that appears effective in clinical trial settings, work in practice and provide good value-for-money? In the case of programs made up of a complex interaction of multiple interventions, implementers often create a theory of change and then meticulously track whether it is being followed every step of the way, from each input translating into the prespecified activity, and the activities yielding the right outputs and the expected outcomes. When observational data is available that permits quantitative analysis (evaluation), it may also be possible to estimate causal impact in a given setting by applying experimental methods (such as a randomized controlled trial) or quasi-experimental techniques (such as difference-in-difference analysis). Such program evaluations generally consider outputs (e.g. the number of bed nets distributed) and relatively short-term outcomes (e.g. malaria infections following bed net distribution). Many eval- uations also collect data years after the program to identify longer-term impacts. Cost-effectiveness calculations are sometimes conducted after ascertaining the cost and impact of the program, but such analyses aren’t necessarily considered when determining whether to implement a certain program or technology—especially when politics and other concerns get in the way. Discrete clinical interventions and technologies (which are defined as including clinical interven- tions, drugs, diagnostics and even public health programs) are usually the subject of health technolo- gy assessment (HTA) to inform coverage decisions in many contexts. The underpinning evidence base for HTA typically involves a synthesis of randomized trial data, designed to reduce bias in estimating causal inference and relative effectiveness. Trial data is then combined with information from other sources and study designs to develop models of the technology’s long-term health and cost impact in a given context. A key feature of both programs and technologies is uncertainty.
Topic:
Health, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Intervention, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3144. Moving Beyond the Emergency: A Whole of Society Approach to the Refugee Response in Bangladesh

Author:
Lauren Post, Rachel Landry, and Cindy Huang
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Bangladesh provides a significant global public good by hosting over one million Rohingya refugees. Most are living in camps in Cox’s Bazar district, where resources and livelihoods are strained. The refugee situation is likely to be protracted, and medium-term planning is critical. CGD has been working with local and international partners to understand what that medium-term response could look like. This is one of five publications where we outline steps for developing a medium-term plan for Bangladesh, to benefit refugees and their host community alike. The other four cover forest and landscape restoration, trade, private sector investment, and labor mobility.
Topic:
Development, Refugees, Social Services, Humanitarian Crisis, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and Asia

3145. When Does “What Works” Work? And What Does that Mean for UK Aid R&D Spend?

Author:
Charles Kenny, Euan Ritchie, and G. Lee Robinson
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The UK’s Secretary of State for International Development[1] oversees an aid-financed R&D[2] budget that is larger than that of the next 15 biggest donors combined. [3] At the moment, a considerable proportion of that UK R&D spend goes towards solving global technological challenges related to neglected tropical diseases including malaria, and a considerable proportion again towards local evaluation of aid-financed development interventions. Much of the rest is somewhat opaquely distributed to British universities for research supposedly related to development. As well as reform of this last category, the range of more legitimate activities benefiting from ODA “research and development” calls for innovation in approaches to deliver outcomes. This paper will argue there is a (fuzzy) spectrum of development procedures, for some of which global innovation, evaluation, or “best practice” can be informative, for some of which local evaluation or experimentation can be useful, and for some of which perhaps only practical experience and local wisdom can help. That there is a spectrum of intervention types and research opportunities, and that local evidence is often required, has implications for the kind of research that UK aid can usefully support as part of its R&D program and where that research should happen. In turn, that suggests a reform agenda for the way UK ODA for R&D is currently spent.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Research
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3146. ABCs of the IFIs: The African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development

Author:
Scott Morris, Erin Collinson, and Alysha Gardner
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The African Development Bank (AfDB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) are among the international financial institutions seeking pledges from donor countries as part of upcoming replenishment cycles in 2019 and 2020. The United States is a leading donor to these funds and has played a crucial role in shaping the institutions’ agendas throughout their histories.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Finance, Banks, Institutions, and Banking
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

3147. Strengthening European Leadership on Global Health Security

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jeremy Konyndyk, and Liesl Schnabel
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Impending leadership transitions in EU institutions provide a unique opportunity to bolster European action on global health security. This would be a double win for the EU: advancing its efforts to foster progress in developing countries while also protecting Europe itself against potential disease risks. To help strengthen the EU’s leadership on global health security, the new Commission should
Topic:
Security, Health, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe

3148. Redesigning the External Investment Plan to be a Game-Changer for Africa

Author:
Mikaela Gavas
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Despite their potential to achieve high development impact, projects in the poorest and most fragile countries, most in sub-Saharan Africa, are chronically underfinanced by Euro- pean development finance institutions and private investors owing to real or perceived low risk-adjusted returns. The External Investment Plan and its risk-mitigation tools, if struc- tured right, have the potential to mobilise investment where the need is greatest. To make this happen, the new European Commission should n clarify the strategic objectives of external investment and steer it towards leveraging high-risk capital for underserved markets; n explicitly focus assistance on the poorest countries through clear project selection criteria; n provide demand-driven technical assistance and oper- ationalise policy dialogue to improve the business envi- ronment; and n federate the development finance institutions focusing on steering policy, encouraging best practice, and har- monising procedures and results amongst the develop- ment finance institutions and multilateral development banks.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa

3149. Reforming EU Trade Policy to Accelerate Economic Transformation in Africa

Author:
Hannah Timmis and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As the rest of the developing world has reaped the benefits of rapid globalisation, Africa has remained marginalised in international trade. The new European Commission has an opportunity to accelerate export-led growth on the continent by introducing a bolder, more coherent policy on trade, agriculture, and aid.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Economic Development, and Economic Transformation
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

3150. Automation and AI: Implications for African Development Prospects?

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Now that computers are capable of taking the jobs that require brain as well as brawn, it may appear there is little left for humans to do. There are many scary forecasts of the capacity of automation and AI to replace a lot of workers very fast. Self-driving vehicles may wipe out opportunities for taxi driv- ers and truckers, for example. Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson note there are 3.5 million people em- ployed driving vehicles in the US. If automation reduced that to 1.5 million, that alone would increase total US labor productivity by 1.7 percent,1 but it would also leave two million drivers looking for work. In 2013, Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne made waves by predicting that 47 percent of US employment was automatable over the next two decades, with a higher estimate for developing countries.2 Erin Winick of Technology Review subsequently produced a summary table of job losses and gains estimations on automation.3 Some of the worldwide figures are in Table 1. There are clearly two sides to the ledger, but some of the predicted job loss numbers at the global level are considerable. The forecasts suggest bad news for Africa in particular, given concentration in types of low-skill jobs that might be easy to automate, rising working age populations, and already far too few good jobs to occupy the existing population. Arntz et al. suggest the share of workers at high risk of automation is 40 percent amongst those with a lower secondary education and above 50 percent for those with primary or less education.4 Advanced manufacturing and AI applications including automated call centers might even reverse the trend towards manufacturing and low-skilled services moving to developing countries. That would imperil a recent run of global income convergence. And there have been cases of impact al- ready: Foxconn replacing 30 percent of its workforce when it introduced robots, and 1,000 lost jobs in Vietnam when Adidas shuttered a factory and moved production to “speed factories” in Germany and the US. If this is the beginning of a trend, it would be harmful to African development prospects.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

3151. Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa

Author:
Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As Europe’s working-age population continues to decline, sub-Saharan Africa’s is rapidly increasing. Many of these new labour market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. To make the most of these movements, the new European Commission should create and promote new kinds of legal labour migration pathways with more tangible benefits to countries of origin and destination; pilot and scale Global Skill Partnership projects between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and within Africa; and be a positive voice for migration within Europe, promoting the benefits from migration and ensuring they are understood.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Legal Theory, Borders, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

3152. A Smoother Trade Transition for Graduating LDCs

Author:
Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
For nearly 50 years, the world’s “least developed countries” have received extra financial support and preferential trade treatment to help them grow and develop. In the first three decades after the Unit- ed Nations (UN) created the LDC category in 1971, only one country—diamond-rich Botswana—out- grew that status. Since then, four more countries have graduated, and the pace is set to accelerate over the coming decade. Moreover, the countries approaching graduation in the next decade will pose different adjustment challenges than those that preceded them. When a country successfully graduates, it loses access to the special finance and trade programs that come with LDC status. In the case of trade, that can mean the graduating country’s exporters sudden- ly face the higher tariffs that their more advanced competitors face, so-called most-favored nation (MFN) tariffs. Even if these countries remain eligible for the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) that is available to developing countries, those programs are typically much less generous than the duty-free, quota-free market access that most advanced economies provide for LDCs.1 Moreover, out- side the European Union (EU), few countries provide transition measures for graduating LDCs (see Annex A). Nor does there appear to be much planning to prepare for the coming wave of graduations. The United Kingdom has already committed to provide barrier-free market access for LDCs, similar to the EU’s Everything But Arms (EBA) program.2 But British policymakers have a unique opportunity to improve on that model as part of post-Brexit trade and development planning, including to ad- dress the coming wave of graduations. And if the UK remains in the customs union, it can work with EU policymakers to improve the graduation process as part of the review of the GSP regulation that expires in 2023.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Trade, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

3153. Gender Equality in US Think Tank Leadership: Data from Tax Records

Author:
Charles Kenny and Julian Duggan
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Existing analysis of US think tanks suggests that women are underrepresented among senior staff, lead- ership, and board members. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Soraya Kamali-Nafar at Women In Interna- tional Security examined 22 Washington, DC-based think tanks working on foreign policy and national and international security, and they found that 68 percent of the heads of the think tanks were men, along with 73 percent of the experts and 78 percent of those on governing boards. In 2018, a random sampling of 10 leading US think tanks working on development by Charles Kenny and Tanvi Jaluka sug- gested that women made up 30 percent of high-paid employees and 10 percent of highest-paid employ- ees, and that higher-paid women earned only 75 percent that of higher-paid men. This note updates the 2018 analysis with a larger sample of think tanks covering a longer period and includes measures of think tank reach to examine if more established think tanks perform better or worse on gender equality within their senior ranks. Across the 71 think tanks for which we have data, we find that the average share of trustees and directors that were women was 23 percent, the average share of highly compensated employees that were women was 30 percent, and highly compensat- ed women were paid 92 percent of what highly compensated men were paid. Conservative-leaning think tanks performed notably worse than the average on the share of high-paid employees who were women, as did think tanks that worked on global development. Older think tanks saw worse gender pay ratios. Having a woman as CEO was not associated with greater pay equality. Analysis of the gen- der pay ratio suggest that it may be driven in part by a few very highly compensated men in senior positions, but also that, conditional on job title and think tank of employment, highly paid women are paid $30,000 less per year than highly paid men.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Leadership, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3154. Taxing “Bads”: An Overview of Research Initiatives

Author:
Ruth Lopert
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Around the world, development economists and researchers are exploring proposals to tax excise goods, and several have produced models demonstrating that such taxes can generate substantial revenues. This note attempts to list the organizations and research initiatives currently addressing taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages—the “bads”—to help navigate the landscape of existing research and identify gaps and opportunities for further work.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Tax Systems, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3155. Russia’s Promotion of Illiberal Populism: Tools, Tactics, Networks

Author:
Laura Rosenberger and Thomas Morley
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Understanding the rise of illiberal populism has been a focus of recent debate on both sides of the Atlantic. This “illiberal international” has many faces, often seemingly at odds: Donald Trump and Jill Stein in the United States, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon in France, la Lega and the Five Star Movement in Italy. A combination of internal and external factors drive these movements, including domestic forces such as income inequality and a sense of government irresponsiveness, and transnational trends like migration and technological change. At the same time, Russia and its leadership have sought to exploit and strengthen these movements as a means to weaken the West and gain relative power – by deepening societal polarization, amplifying divisive issues on which these movements feed, providing financial support, and connecting movements across borders. This paper does not analyze the internal drivers of these movements or transnational trends, but stipulates that they are important. It also does not examine the relative impact of internal versus external factors. Rather, this paper focuses on the role of the Russian government and its proxies in nurturing and shaping these movements as a means of destabilizing the West and advancing Russian foreign policy goals. This paper discusses three characteristics of the Russian government’s support for illiberal populist forces, and draws on examples of Russia’s promotion of such movements to illustrate patterns and pathways of influence. First, the Russian government uses a range of largely asymmetric tools to support a diverse set of actors across the transatlantic space, using similar tools in different combinations in multiple countries. Second, Russia uses cross-border networks as vectors of influence across the transatlantic space, often facilitated by Russian oligarchs or other figures close to the regime,1 who serve as transnational connectors of populist movements. Finally, while interactions between the Russian government, its proxies, and illiberal populists often use shared social, cultural, or religious values, for Russia these pathways are utilitarian means not ideological ends, and are aimed at forces on both sides of the ideological spectrum that further Russia’s agenda of upending the transatlantic status quo. These movements’ alignment with pro-Russian policies — anti-establishment, anti-European, anti-American agendas – rather than a particular political ideology, drive Russia’s support. This analysis has several implications for policy makers, including the need to break down stovepipes, work across sectors to develop a whole of society approach, and form transnational strategies to combat Russian government attempts to undermine democratic stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Political stability, and Populism
Political Geography:
Russia

3156. The ASD European Policy Blueprint For Countering Authoritarian Interference in Democracies

Author:
Kristine Berzina, Naďa Kovalčíková, David Salvo, and Etienne Soula
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In recent years, European democracy has been shaken by internal and external events. European nations and institutions are confronting numerous challenges like migration, nationalist extremism, and discontent with the political status quo. They also face challenges from a revanchist Russia that seeks to reestablish influence it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union and to weaken democracy across the continent, and from a rising China that aims to export its model of authoritarianism across the globe. The European Union and NATO have expanded their membership, bringing more European citizens into the Euro-Atlantic community, and yet a polarized European society remains ever more susceptible to interference from foreign authoritarian regimes’ attempts to undermine Europe’s stability, unity, and prosperity. The overall security threat to Europe has evolved. Europe’s adversaries are less likely to use conventional military power to fight today’s geopolitical battles and more likely to employ asymmetric tools to compensate for conventional military weaknesses—cyberattacks, information operations, malign financial influence, the subversion of political and social organizations, and strategic economic coercion. Regimes like Vladimir Putin’s Russia amplify divisive narratives to undermine public trust in democracy using a combination of state-controlled media outlets, government-sponsored online trolls masquerading as European citizens, and a network of sympathetic social media agitators. Authoritarian actors bring money into Europe licitly and illicitly to corrupt European leaders and peddle their influence in European politics and society. They use state assets as leverage to create economic dependencies that further authoritarian interests in Europe and advance their corroding influence across the continent. Finally, these regimes disrupt democracies’ ability to govern and function by conducting cyberattacks against government institutions, businesses, and media. Elections are a prime target of authoritarian attacks on democracy. The Russian government has interfered in elections and referendums in several European nations, and initial assessments of the May 2019 European Parliament elections revealed that Russian disinformation campaigns “covered a broad range of topics” to attack the EU, amplify localized polarizing content to influence public opinion, and attempt to suppress voter turnout. 1 But undermining elections is not the only goal. Authoritarian incursions into the daily lives of Europeans have increased since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, and they will grow by an order of magnitude as technologies evolve and more actors adopt these tools. By using these tools to exploit existing cleavages in democratic societies and vulnerabilities in democratic governments, authoritarian regimes are trying to weaken and distract Europe and its transatlantic partners in the United States and Canada from their regional and global responsibilities, and to diminish confidence in democracy as a viable form of government.
Topic:
NATO, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

3157. Online Harms White Paper: Open Consultation Submission

Author:
Bradley Hanlon, Lindsay Gorman, and Bret Schafer
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In April 2019, the United Kingdom’s Home Office published its Online Harms White Paper, which proposed a regulatory framework designed to address the prevalence of “illegal and harmful content online.” The Paper called for the establishment of a “duty of care” that would place greater responsibility on companies to ensure the safety of their users and address harm caused through the use of their services. It broadly defined the companies to which the framework would apply as those “that allow users to share or discover user-generated contact or interact with each other online” and included among its “online harms” threats ranging from disinformation and terrorist activity to cyberbullying and child exploitation and abuse. The Paper further advocated the establishment of an independent regulator to oversee compliance with the new regulations and enforce punishments for non-compliance. The UK government also solicited open consultation on the specifics of its proposals. To this end, ASD’s Brad Hanlon, Lindsay Gorman, and Bret Schafer submitted the following key recommendations to increase the effectiveness of the Online Harms White Paper’s response to online threats, which are drawn directly from their report: Lawmakers should reassess the broad scope of the “online harms” framework and consider the different legislative actions that may be necessary (or unnecessary) to combat varied challenges. They should also acknowledge the need for solutions that are tailored not only to specific threats, but that account for the nature, size, and capabilities of online platforms. Lawmakers should reassess whether an independent regulator is an effective method to combat the full range of “online harms” encompassed in the White Paper and consider other actions for countering threats that are difficult to define. If lawmakers proceed to establish an independent regulator, they should ensure that it is guided by a defined and proportionate enforcement structure and that it maintains credible independence from government. Lawmakers should construct a definition of “private communications” that includes encrypted messaging platforms and craft legislation that regulates “online harms” on these platforms without threatening democratic norms. As one of the first efforts to create a comprehensive framework to address threats to online safety, the regulations that the UK adopts will influence the approaches of other countries – including those with a weaker democratic record. By taking these steps, the UK can most effectively shape international norms surrounding online regulation.
Topic:
Regulation, Internet, Norms, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3158. Massive Russian Financial Flows Through Moldova Show Small Jurisdictions Matter

Author:
Joshua Kirschenbaum and Sergiu Tofilat
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In 2014 the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) revealed a staggering Russian money-laundering operation perpetrated through Moldindconbank in Moldova, alternatively dubbed the Russian Laundromat1 or the Global Laundromat.2 Financial facilitators allegedly moved $20 billion from Russian banks to Moldindconbank over five years, where they “cleaned” the money using Moldovan court orders backing fraudulent claims that borrowers had defaulted on promissory notes. They then moved the proceeds to banks in Latvia and around the world. According to the OCCRP, Moldindconbank received $20 billion in potentially illicit inflows—a truly colossal sum for one small institution in one small country. Yet the real amount of Russian money that was laundered in Moldova through Moldindconbank or through other institutions during this period is very likely much higher. In 2017 The Guardian reported that Moldovan law-enforcement officials “believe the real total may be as high as $80 billion.”3 Our analysis of data in the 2016 Statistical Yearbook of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) shows that the amount of Russian money that entered the country’s banks between 2010 and 2014 was approximately $75 billion. All this points to the inadequate response by Moldova’s government in the face of the staggering scale of the problem, to the possibility that similar illicit activity also occurred at other Moldovan banks, and to the importance of tracking cross-border payments. Most of all, the Moldovan experience shows that small jurisdictions matter, and that solutions must be comprehensive if they are to be enduring. Absent such solutions, private Russian actors and the Russian government will continue to exploit weak links in the Western financial system to conduct malign financial activity. In so doing, they will be able to export corruption, clean criminal proceeds, and facilitate interference operations.
Topic:
Corruption, Finance, Money, and Jurisdiction
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Moldova

3159. Avoiding the Band-Aid Effect in Institutional Responses to Disinformation and Hybrid Threats

Author:
Nina Jankowicz
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Since 2014, a variety of initiatives have been created in response to the rise of Russian interference in democracies. Some of the organizations, while created as answers to a real and increasingly exigent danger, began their work without a clear mandate or political will behind them. As a result, their work has not always been fully effective, falling subject to “Band-Aid Effect” in which the creation of new bodies to address the complex problem of foreign interference in democracies is viewed—whether by the convening institution, the media, or the public—in itself as a panacea. Through a study of six key unilateral and multilateral efforts in Europe to counter disinformation and hybrid threats, this paper identifies best practices and pitfalls in establishing such bodies. It assesses the extent to which they are integrated into meaningful policy- and decision-making processes, the extent to which they coordinate across government and with each other, and the extent to which they are meeting public-facing program objectives. The six efforts profiled in this paper are diverse in form and approaches, and they have achieved success in building awareness about the problem among the public and policymakers. They have also faced a variety of obstacles. Attempts to set up similar efforts can extrapolate from their experience the following best practices so as to avoid “The Band-Aid Effect” in building up new institutions.
Topic:
Democracy, Disinformation, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

3160. The Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Dispute: An Unnecessary Diplomatic Row?

Author:
Kizito Sabala
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This briefing note examines the implications of the maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia following claims that Somalia has auctioned the oil and gas fields in the disputed territory, which are currently the subject of an International Court of Justice (ICJ) case at The Hague.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Gas, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Somalia

3161. Emerging Political Reforms and the Future of Ethiopian Federalism: Policy Options for Stability, Peace, and Development

Author:
Asnake Kefale
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the prospects of deploying federalism as an instrument of peacebuilding in the context of emerging political reforms in Ethiopia. The ap- pointment of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in April 2018 by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) marks a watershed moment in Ethiopia’s political history. The agenda of political reform adopted by EPRDF was largely due to two interrelated factors. First, the need to overcome the ap- parent fissures and constant power struggles within the party, especially since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012. Second, as a response to the youth-led mass anti-government protests which started in 2015, primarily in the two most populous regions of the country, Oromia and Amhara. While the ongoing reforms are generating some optimism, there are also wor- risome developments in parts of the country. More than 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes. The causes of their displacement are inter- ethnic tensions and identity-based communal conflicts over issues such as the ownership of natural resources linked to people’s livelihoods and the location of territorial borders. Those hit hardest by internal displacement are communities living in Gedeo and West Guji in southern Ethiopia and in the border areas of the Oromia and Somali regions. There are also tensions between the Amhara and Tigray regions over the identity of Wolqait and Raya communities.1 Similarly, the Sidama ethnic group’s demand for regional status in southern Ethiopia has cre- ated tension in the area. Moreover, there are reports of a breakdown of law and order in parts of the Amhara and Oromia regions.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Political stability, Peace, and Federalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

3162. Community Perspectives on Violent Extremism: Strengthening local factors of social resilience

Author:
Engjellushe Morina, Beatrix Austin, and Veronique Dudouet
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
Dealing with violent extremism (VE) has emerged as a central framework of analysis and policy-making in most Western and non-Western government agencies. It is also heavily shaping the programming of non-governmental agencies and research institutions. While there is an undeniable need to address the phenomenon, more often than not analysis and programming fall short in understanding and tackling its root causes, factors, actors and systemic dynamics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, Violent Extremism, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Balkans

3163. The Poison Pill: EU defence on US terms?

Author:
Daniel Fiott
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
It took two letters. One, sent to Brussels on 1 May 2019 by two US undersecretaries, accused the EU of damaging transatlantic cooperation and hindering US access to Europe’s defence market through the rules it plans to set for the participation of third states in the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). The other, sent to Washington on 16 May 2019 by senior EU officials of equal standing, refuted these claims by showing the objective and transparent way in which the EU had established the EDF and PESCO. Unlike the letter from Washington, which was laced with robust language and questionable accusations, the EU response argued that, even with the introduction of the two initiatives, the European defence market would remain more open than that of the US. The EU institutions also stated that by creating the EDF and PESCO, the Union was showing its collective determination to reduce European capability duplication and enhance interoperability, while also ensuring the competitiveness of Europe’s defence industry. In essence, the EU pointed out that its security and defence initiatives are designed to contribute to transatlantic burden sharing – something the US has been requesting from European allies for some time. While the US welcomes that the Fund allows for the participation of third states, it objects to the fact that recipients and subcontractors supported by the EDF will not be permitted to transfer sensitive information and/or Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) outside of the EU.1 Additionally, the US fears that the unanimity principle governing PESCO could ensure that any future US participation in the initiative could be vetoed by a single EU member state. At the core of Washington’s fears is the idea that EDF and PESCO could lock US firms out of the European market. However, the EU has made it clear that the EDF and PESCO will not alter EU defence procurement rules, lead to EU-owned defence capabilities, affect bilateral defence agreements between the US and individual member states and/or harm NATO defence planning targets and processes. Furthermore, given the US’ own long-standing and legitimate protection of its core defence industrial interests, there is a certain irony to its accusations of the EU because the Union has equally legitimate security interests. Following the exchange of letters between the partners, a number of questions have surfaced. First, despite a sustained campaign of influencing the EU to adopt favourable conditions for the US,2 why has Washington raised tensions with the Union now? Second, given that €13 billion has been earmarked under the EDF, and its own defence budget stood at $650 billion in 2018, why is the US so concerned? With a view to answering these questions, this Brief begins with an analysis of US government data that shows the asymmetry between US and EU defence markets. It then moves on to a discussion about a web of regulations and laws which effectively provides the US government with the discretionary power to control its defence market and technologies. The Brief ends with some reflections on why the US has decided to formally raise objections about the EDF and PESCO now and the deeper reasons underlying American concerns.
Topic:
European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

3164. Russia in the Western Balkans: Tactical wins, strategic setbacks

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Over the last few years, news about Russia’s conduct in the Western Balkans has resembled dispatches coming from the trenches of political and economic warfare: Moscow has slashed gas supplies, banned imports of agro-food products, conducted coordinated disinformation campaigns, nurtured nationalist organisations, deployed Cossack paramilitary groups, tested cyber defences and allegedly even tried to overthrow legitimate governments. This flurry of disruptive operations caught Europe by surprise and generated debate: does this resurgence herald Russia’s return to the region and if so, what is driving the comeback? What does Moscow want to achieve? What is the Russian modus operandi in the region? Is it confined only to coercion, as the headlines suggest, or is there a softer side to Russia’s power? Finally, looking retrospectively, did Russia’s approach bear fruit? This Brief addresses this set of questions in greater detail, with two key findings. First, Russia’s policy in the region is executed by a network of Russian state and non-state actors who are blurring the traditional lines between the public and private domains. This allows the Kremlin to tap into the resources of informal institutions and hide behind a fog of deniability. Second, Russia has raised the cost of Western Balkan integration in the EU and NATO by exploiting the region’s political and economic vulnerabilities. That said, although Moscow was able to slow down the process, it has hitherto failed to alter the region’s steady drift towards Western institutions, at least for now.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Balkans

3165. Stress Tests: An insight into crisis scenarios, simulations and exercises

Author:
Daniel Fiott
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Until the arrival of General Norman Schwarzkopf to United States Central Command (CENTCOM) in November 1988, American war planners assumed that the US’ biggest threat in the Middle East would come from a Soviet invasion of Iran. The Soviet Union had been a net exporter of oil until the late 1960s, but in order to meet its own growing industrial and energy demands Moscow looked increasingly to the Middle East and countries such as Iran to bolster its oil reserves. Based on his own reading, however, Schwarzkopf turned this planning assumption on its head and with CENTCOM he worked on a wargame based on an intra-regional conflict between Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia rather than a Soviet invasion. Apart from the precise details about potential US fatalities (Schwarzkopf and his team believed the US would suffer more casualties than it actually did), the general and his wargamers were right: Iraq eventually invaded and annexed Kuwait in August 1990 and Operation Desert Storm was over before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991. Schwarzkopf’s wargame had been prophetic in preparing the US military for war with Iraq. Of course, the history of wargaming and scenario planning does not always mirror the success achieved by Schwarzkopf. Companies such as Shell that are famed for their in-house scenario planning departments do have notable periods of success, but the company’s ‘futures branch’ was nearly shut down three times in almost 50 years of scenario planning at the firm because Shell’s leaders saw little value in its work. In some cases, sound scenario planning and the assessments they lead to are not taken seriously enough: for example, vulnerability assessments of the Fukushima nuclear plant showed that there was a risk from natural disasters such as tsunamis but the consequences of these assessments were downplayed. Most of the time, however, crisis scenario planning unfortunately emerges in the wake of a major crisis such as the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 in the US or the global financial crisis of 2007.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, Hybrid Threats, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

3166. Three Scenarios for Sudan: From non-violent revolution to democratic reform?

Author:
Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
On 11 April, Sudan’s long-standing head of state, President al-Bashir, was removed from office by his military generals following a large-scale non-violent uprising against the regime. Four months later, on 17 August, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the opposition coalition Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) signed a power-sharing agreement establishing a three-year transitional regime set up to steer the country towards democratic elections. The agreement forged in August was underpinned by the same dynamics that led to the overthrow of the regime in April: determined non-violent resistance demanding a transition to civilian-led rule. These events in Sudan demonstrate the potential of strategic non-violence in bringing about societal change, even in the face of violent repression. Indeed, research has found that non-violent resistance, defined as ‘the application of unarmed civilian power using non-violent methods such as protests, strikes, boycotts, and demonstrations, without using or threatening physical harm against the opponent’, is not only increasingly frequent but also more effective in achieving its goals than violent rebellion. Moreover, recent studies show that non-violent resistance creates better foundations for building democratic institutions than armed or elite-led transitions. In the light of these research findings, there is genuine potential for democratic transition in Sudan.
Topic:
War, Social Movement, Reform, Conflict, Protests, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

3167. Resetting Ethiopia: Will the state heal or fail?

Author:
Giovanni Faleg
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
While democratic reforms should in principle promote peace and stability, to what extent can they also exacerbate political violence? Although the academic debate is controversial with regard to this question,1 Ethiopia provides a good test case to look at conflict prevention from the perspective of a country that recently experienced a peaceful transfer of power, followed by fast-paced reformism, and can as a result either stabilise or fall back into conflict. Since the appointment of Abiy Ahmed Ali as prime minister in April 2018, Ethiopia has undergone a profound transformation. These changes are the result of the peaceful stepping down of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in January 2018 in response to severe societal turmoil. In an attempt to mitigate conflict and avoid extreme fragility, the new leadership sought to accelerate its progress towards democratisation, expanded political freedoms, introduced market liberalisation and developed a new approach to foreign policy, which led, inter alia, to the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea. These transformations, however, have not occurred without turbulence. Insecurity and ethnic tensions have been worsening, leading to an unprecedented crisis of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The new foreign policy course paved the way for trade opportunities, but also new border tensions. A coup launched by Brigadier General Asaminew Tsige on 22 June 2019 attempted to seize power in Amhara’s regional capital Bahir Dar. The attempt failed, but the coup resulted in the assassination of the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces General Seare Mekonnen and revealed to the world the country’s precarious political situation. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the drivers and prospects of the ongoing democratic transition in Ethiopia. It argues that while the implementation of reforms launched by the current leadership has the potential to deliver progress on democracy and growth, the outcome of the transition depends on a set of factors (domestic, economic and external), which in turn delineate three possible avenues: spiralling instability and relapse into conflict, gradual stabilisation and democratisation, or a mix of democratisation and turmoil. The conclusion outlines the possible contribution of the international community to reinforce the resilience of the Ethiopian state and its capacity to heal by bridging gaps in the current government’s ambitious reform agenda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Reform, Geopolitics, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

3168. Libya's Conflict: A very short introduction

Author:
Wolfgang Pusztai
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Eight years after the revolution, Libya is in the middle of a civil war. For more than four years, international conflict resolution efforts have centred on the UN-sponsored Libya Political Agreement (LPA) process, unfortunately without achieving any breakthrough. In fact, the situation has even deteriorated since the onset of Marshal Haftar’s attack on Tripoli on 4 April 2019. An unstable Libya has wide-ranging impacts: as a safe haven for terrorists, it endangers its north African neighbours, as well as the wider Sahara region. But terrorists originating from or trained in Libya are also a threat to Europe, also through the radicalisation of the Libyan expatriate community (such as the Manchester Arena bombing in 2017). Furthermore, it is one of the most important transit countries for migrants on their way to Europe. Through its vast oil wealth, Libya is also of significant economic relevance for its neighbours and several European countries. This Conflict Series Brief focuses on the driving factors of conflict dynamics in Libya and on the shortcomings of the LPA in addressing them. It shows how the approach ignored key political actors and realities on the ground from the outset, thereby limiting its impact.
Topic:
Civil War, Migration, Oil, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

3169. The EU as a Maritime Security Provider

Author:
Eva Pejsova
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Maritime security is one of the fundamental strategic interests of the European Union. Then HR/VP Federica Mogherini reiterated this fact at the conclusion of the informal meeting of EU defence ministers in Helsinki at the end of August 2019, adding that there was a ‘growing demand for an EU role as a maritime security provider not only in our region, but also further away’ – especially in Asia and the Indian Ocean. As a global trading power, the EU is vitally dependent on free, open and safe maritime shipping: 90% of its external and 40% of its internal trade is seaborne. The value of goods transported by sea is 1.8 times higher than that of goods transported by air and almost three times higher than that of goods transported overland.1 In 2018 alone, the value of trade between the EU and Asia, home to its main economic partners, reached €1.4 trillion, with 50% of it transiting through the Indian Ocean. As a result, the EU has a vested interest in a secure maritime domain and it is only natural that it should contribute to its preservation, especially in waters connecting it to its main economic partners in Asia. It is also natural that Asian countries want to see Europe becoming more proactively involved in addressing the many maritime security challenges – both traditional and non-traditional – in the Indo-Pacific, especially given its aspiration to play a greater security role in the region. The question is: can the EU perform such a role? How realistic is its ambition to become a maritime security provider in the region and how might it go about accomplishing this? The purpose of this Brief is to look into why, where and how Europe could contribute to improving the maritime security environment in the Indo-Pacific. A closer look at the current situation and the multitude of maritime security challenges facing littoral states in the region reveals several niches that the EU could fill. Analysing the Union’s key attributes and achievements in the maritime security field, the Brief identifies features and capacities that can effectively add value to regional security and stability.
Topic:
Security, Governance, European Union, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Europe and Indo-Pacific

3170. Darkening Horizons: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2018–30

Author:
Gergely Hideg and Anna Alvazzi del Frate
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The year 2017 saw the second highest annual rate of global violent deaths in the period 2004–17, according to this Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey. In 2017, 589,000 people—including 96,000 women and girls—lost their lives due to lethal violence. This corresponds to a rate of 7.80 violent deaths per 100,000 population, the second highest since 2004. The same figure for 2016 was 560,000 people, or 7.56 deaths per 100,000 population. The data for 2017 compared to 2016 was also the third-largest annual change during the period 2004–17. Overall, the proportion of female victims of lethal violence remained stable at 16%. This increase in the number of global violent deaths is primarily due to a rise in homicides, ie: non-conflict deaths. ‘In 2017, some 403,000 people were victims of intentional homicides, compared to 106,000 who were killed as a result of war or other conflicts,’ noted Gergely Hideg, co-author of the Small Arms Survey Briefing Paper Darkening Horizons: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2018—30.
Topic:
Weapons, Sustainable Development Goals, Violence, and Death
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and Global Focus

3171. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain Compound Attack and Military Accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18

Author:
Flora McCrone
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
On 11 July 2016, government forces stormed Terrain, a residential compound in Juba, South Sudan. Systematic violence, looting, and vandalism ensued—including one fatality, multiple incidents of rape and torture, as well as destroyed property. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain compound attack and military accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18, a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, examines both the attack and the subsequent special court martial that followed from May 2017 to September 2018. Despite the SPLA’s sub-par record of providing justice for victims of war crimes, the paper finds that when certain individuals and their interests align, accountability can be achieved through formal justice mechanisms.
Topic:
War Crimes, Conflict, Accountability, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

3172. Who's Fighting Whom in Tripoli: How the 2019 Civil War is Transforming Libya's Military Landscape

Author:
Wolfram Lacher
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Khalifa Haftar’s offensive to take Tripoli, Libya’s capital and largest city, has stalled. Launched in April 2019, the campaign has triggered the largest mobilization of fighters in western Libya since the revolution of 2011. It has also provoked new rifts within and between communities, and is preparing the ground for future political struggles. Who is Fighting Whom in Tripoli: How the 2019 Civil War is Transforming Libya’s Military Landscape—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—examines the identities and interests of the forces fighting each other over control of Tripoli. It shows that the divides of 2011 are central in structuring the two opposing alliances and in shaping the motivations of many involved in the war.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

3173. Preventing Diversion: Comparing ATT and African Measures for Importing States

Author:
Paul Holtom and Benjamin Jongleux
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The diversion of conventional arms from licit to illicit entities can occur at any stage of the arms transfer chain. Preventing diversion therefore requires varied measures that effectively tackle the issue along the chain. The Arms Trade Treaty Working Group on Effective Treaty Implementation (WGETI) compiled a paper on such prevention measures, which relied heavily on the experiences of major exporting states. Several African sub-regional instruments contain measures to prevent and detect diversion for states that are not major exporters. This Small Arms Survey Briefing Paper compares diversion prevention measures for importing states as identified in the WGETI paper and African sub-regional measures. It finds that the African instruments lack articles on post-delivery cooperation with the exporting state, compliance with assurances on re-export or retransfer, in addition to measures to address identified cases of diversion. However, it also finds that these instruments contain prevention measures that are not in the WGETI paper, including provisions on modes of transport and official entry points. Incorporating experiences from ATT states parties from Africa can help inform discussions on the role of importing states to prevent diversion.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Regulation, Trafficking, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa

3174. Arms Monitoring in Guinea: A Survey of National Forensic Services

Author:
André Desmarais
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Forensic science institutions have a key role to play—not only in criminal investigations, but also in the broader fight against illicit arms proliferation. However, their ability to play this role depends on their capacities, which are not well understood. A Briefing Paper (originally published in French) on the forensic services in Guinea aims to fill this gap. Building on previous case studies on forensic services in Chad, Mauritania, and Niger, Arms Monitoring in Guinea: A Survey of National Forensic Services by ballistics specialist André Desmarais—co-published by INTERPOL and the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—examines capabilities, limitations, and needs of Guinea’s forensic services. It finds that information on calibres, models, and ammunition types of seized weapons is limited, and that the country lacks a central firearms database. Based on this analysis, the study provides tailored suggestions for areas of improvement, as a way to support Guinea in significantly reducing illicit arms flows.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, and Forensic Science
Political Geography:
Africa, Chad, Guinea, Mauritania, and Niger

3175. The West Africa–Sahel Connection: Mapping Cross-border Arms Trafficking

Author:
Fiona Mangan and Matthias Nowak
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey maps cross-border arms trafficking in West Africa and the Sahel through case studies on Niger, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, and the two tri-border areas of Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali, and Ghana–Côte d’Ivoire–Burkina Faso. The study reveals that highly organized trafficking networks move sizable arms quantities across large areas of land north of the Niger River. Arms trafficking south of the river is more characterized by lower-level arms flows and local intermediaries engaging in so-called ‘ant trade’. Actors range from long-established criminals, corrupt officials, and organized trafficking rings, to tribal networks and low-level transporters. Based on field research, The West Africa–Sahel Connection: Mapping Cross-border Arms Trafficking analyzes the links between illicit arms trafficking and other forms of trafficking and organized crime in the region. The study also looks into the impacts of such arms trafficking as well as the responses to it.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Trafficking, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Sahel

3176. CITIZENSHIP ON HOLD IN LIBYA

Author:
Valerie Stocker
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
Amid Libya’s ongoing crisis, unresolved disputes over citizenship haunt society and the fragile state. A significant number of people in Libya – presumably several hundred thousand – are not formally recognized as citizens, despite considering themselves as such. Commonly referred to as “persons of undetermined legal status”, the majority are first- or second-generation immigrants whose naturalisation process is on hold. A smaller amount consists of native inhabitants who have not been recognised by the state, as well as a group of people whose citizenship was revoked. Although they are registered with the authorities, their status does not guarantee them civil rights, thus curtailing their access to essential paperwork, public services and employment. The issue is of national concern and there are people affected by it across the country; however, it is of particular magnitude in the South of Libya, where it feeds instability. After being on hold for decades, the citizenship file has recently been reopened through the draft constitution, and administrative authorities have taken a renewed interest. This provides a window of opportunity to revisit the causes of disputed citizenship and promote a problem-solving approach based on consultations and social dialogue, to mitigate the risk of further destabilisation. The European Institute of Peace partnered with researcher Valerie Stocker to produce a policy paper that provides an overview of citizenship-related grievances in Libya. The paper traces the history of undetermined legal status and how citizenship disputes relate to Libya’s troubled transition. The author also examines approaches to tackle undetermined legal status, including through the proposed constitution, and offers recommendations for the challenges that lie ahead.
Topic:
Civil War, Fragile/Failed State, Citizenship, Humanitarian Intervention, Civil Rights, Legal Sector, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

3177. ETHNIC EXTREMISM IN ETHIOPIA

Author:
Yonas Adeto
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
In his first year in office, Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed has executed sweeping political changes; nevertheless, Ethiopia faces daunting challenges. One the most pressing challenges is the spike in violence between the country’s many ethnic groups. In September 2018, scores were killed in Addis Ababa in clashes between Oromos and non-Oromos. Fighting has occurred along the border of the Oromia and the Somali regional states; Tigrayans have been forced out of Amhara; Amharas have been expelled from Oromia and Benishangul; and violent conflicts between the Oromo and Gedeo ethnic groups displaced approximately 970,000 people in the western Guji and Gedeo zones. Recently, federal forces were deployed as a coup attempt was thwarted in the Amhara regional state and protests over an independence referendum in Sadama turned violent. Many other incidents of ethnic violence go unreported in international media. To raise awareness about this issue, the European Institute of Peace has partnered with Dr. Yonas Adaye Adeto of the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) at Addis Ababa University. The policy paper investigates the causes and drivers of ethnic extremism, and argues that it presents a clear and present danger for the survival of Ethiopia as a nation. Dr. Yonas offers various recommendations to address extremism through comprehensive government action, which would ensure the success of the ongoing political reforms and address one of the most formidable challenges Ethiopia will face in the years to come.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Violent Extremism, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

3178. Vulnerable Asylum Seekers and Irregular Migrants in Albania: Trends, Challenges, and Policy Solutions

Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
During the last few years (2015-2018), Albania has witnessed an increased influx of irregular migrants entering the country, mostly via the southern border with Greece. The influx of irregular migrants intercepted in Albania during 2018 was around 5,730 foreign nationals, almost five times higher than in 2017. The share of women and children went up as well in 2018. Many migrants resort to smugglers and criminal networks to avoid detention while crossing borders illegally, often due to a scarcity of other viable and safe avenues for migration. Though Albania is considered a transit path in the “Western Balkan route”, the massive irregular flows of migrants raise the risk of vulnerable groups falling prey to human trafficking and sexual exploitation. The policy brief explores the current immigration trends in Albania and outlines some of the main challenges that the country faces, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups of asylum seekers and irregular migrants, such as unaccompanied and separated children, women, and minors who might potentially be victims of trafficking, exploitation, and abuse.
Topic:
Crime, Human Rights, Migration, Immigration, Immigrants, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Balkans, and Albania

3179. Assessment of the Economic Costs of Electrical Power Outages in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Electricity access has improved significantly since introduction of the National Energy Policy of 2003. However, challenges in electricity supply still exist due to the frequency of interruptions, which has resulted in harsh penalties and costs to the economy. In 2016, power outages cost Swaziland E700 million in nominal monetary terms, representing 1.67% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If not addressed, the problems with the electricity sector will severely undermine the government’s effort to improve the development of the country. In essence, the benefits of increased access to the electricity grid will not be realised if power supply is as unreliable as it currently is. Considerable effort should be made to ensure that the country’s electricity supply system is stable and uninterrupted. Hence, in order to achieve this, there is need for policy attention towards improving the energy sector through investments in electricity generation using renewable energy sources, expediting the promotion of decentralised electricity generation to vulnerable areas, and setting stringent standards for the generation and distribution of electricity.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3180. Quantifying the Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The size of the shadow economy has been declining at a slow rate over the past 16 years in Swaziland. The size of the shadow economy was found to be 37.4 % in 2016. This was equivalent to E20.5 billion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016. The key drives of the shadow economy in Swaziland were found to be the tax burden (direct and indirect taxation), self-employment, the importance of the agricultural sector and the institutional quality of governance institutions. For the country to fast tract its developmental agenda (Vision 2022), it is important for the country to enact policies that will harness and transition the shadow economy into the mainstream economy by targeting the drivers of the shadow economy locally.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and GDP
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3181. The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The 2015/16 El Niño drought proved to be the worst drought Swaziland has experienced since 1992. In total nominal monetary terms, the drought cost Swaziland minimally E3.843 billion, representing a 7.01% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016 or 18.58% of government expenditure in 2016. Despite the significant drought losses, the country has on paper a solid Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy (2010). However, even with extensive experience from past droughts in 2009/10, 2007, 2001, and 1992, the country is still struggling to become drought proof. The reason Swaziland is so affected by drought is that the country’s economic backbone rests on agriculture. The inherent vulnerability to drought is that the food production system in the country is still highly dependent on direct rainfall. Due to chronic drought-like conditions in the Shiselweni and Lubombo regions, households in these regions are now discouraged from participating in agriculture. To illustrate, an assessment of agricultural assets in households reveals that household participation in agriculture is less than 30%, with a measly national average of 25.3%. As a result, the country is now too dependent on the international, basically South African, market for its basic food needs. The implication is that as droughts become more frequent, their impact on the country will be detrimental to the economy, particularly on rural livelihoods.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Disasters, Socioeconomics, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3182. The Economic Benefits of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in the Kingdom of Swaziland: A case of the National Handicraft Training Centre (NHTC)

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in Swaziland is key for employment and self-employment opportunities which result in economic growth. TVET has proven to be an educational pathway that can be used to significantly reduce the unemployment rate by 2022. TVET graduates acquire skills that empower them to be immediately absorbed by the labour market and/or be self-employed. About 73.1% of the graduates are in productive employment after graduating from NHTC; with 47.6% formally employed, 25.5% self-employed, while 26.2% were unemployed in the period 1995 – 2015. The Benefit-Cost Ratio of NHTC, based on the Government of Swaziland and the Republic of China on Taiwan’s investment in NHTC, is 1:4.66. This means for every E1 invested in NHTC, the economy realises E4.66 through the income generating activities of graduates. The positive return on investment in NHTC indicates that if Government can increase funding to TVET institutions, the economic return can make significant contributions to skills development and GDP growth in the country.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3183. Capacity profiling and needs assessment of the public service of Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Governments are constantly under pressure to improve public sector performance and at the same time restrain expenditure growth. Public sector organisations are responsible for providing the necessary public goods and services to the citizens, hence the administration of the public service is traditionally grounded in the achievement of efficiency in the work of its departments in pursuance of goals related to service provision (Manzoor 2014). Some scholars argue that the efficiency of the public sector is key to delivering a ‘smarter state’ capable not only of delivering more for less, but better public services, which requires an evidence-based understanding of what the public service has been able to deliver so far, the drivers of these outcomes and the different options available (Hawkins et al. 2016). Swaziland’s private sector, non-governmental organisations, and the public feel that while the country’s public service is evolving, it is still grappling with finding an ideal management style that will ensure better service provision, but in the process of evolution, service delivery of public goods remains compromised, hence customer satisfaction is low. So what can be done to improve the efficiency and performance of the public service? Analysts argue that implementing e-governance has brought unprecedented efficiencies in the work of government to serve citizens (Manzoor 2014). To achieve this and more, governments are widening their base of development partners who can assist in capacity building for civil servants, and funding for the implementation of its programmes.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Public Sector, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3184. Quantifying a living wage in Swaziland: A case of the handicraft sector

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The Swaziland MDG Report (MDGR, 2015) documents that to improve wellbeing in Swaziland beyond 2015 requires the country to accelerate efforts geared toward creating lucrative employment and decent work for all, including women, the youth, and people living with disabilities. This is pertinent for the Kingdom of Swaziland given that 28.1% of the economically active population was unemployed in 2014 (ILFS, 2014). Others have argued that the unemployment rate is higher in rural areas, where the actual figure is probably more than 40% (Manyatsi et al., 2013). The handicraft sector has the potential to provide mass employment opportunities. However, undermining handicraft in Swaziland is a lack of appreciation of the potential this sector has toward changing the economic status and livelihoods of the people (Bam, 2014). As a result, the sector is notorious for paying low wages that do not support a decent standard of living, particularly in rural areas. Poor pay or low wages can have adverse impacts on economic growth by depressing per capita consumption.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Standard of Living, and Wages
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3185. Predictors of food insecurity in Swaziland: Lessons from the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The National Food Security Policy (NFSP) 2005 stresses recurrent droughts and the high incidence of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland as the major contributing factors towards adverse food insecurity in the country. Consistently, when droughts hit the country, food production plummets and pushes a significant portion of the population into food insecurity. An investigation of the predictors of food insecurity among households during the 2015/16 drought provides information on the households that are prone to drought induced food insecurity, so as to inform food security risk mapping in the country. The assessment found that the most significant factors associated with increased food insecurity odds at the household level include households in the Lubombo region which is the poorest among the four regions. Households that do not have toilet facilities in their homesteads, those that depend on rainwater and boreholes as their main source of drinking water, as well as households that use lanterns or oil lamps as their main source of lighting are more likely to be food insecure. Another important factor that can be a good predictor of increased food insecurity during a drought is the ownership and use of tractors and hoes within households that depend on crop production as one of the main sources of food.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3186. Swaziland Research and Development Statistics: Findings from the 2015/16 Swaziland National Research and Development Survey

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
For many years, data on Science, Technology, and Research and Development (R&D) indicators in Swaziland have been missing. Not surprisingly, the country has been unable to monitor its progress and performance on scientific and technological development. This is notwithstanding that the Kingdom of Swaziland’s revised National Development Strategy (NDS) (2016) commits the country to drive social and economic development by intensifying efforts and investment into research, innovation, science, and technology. The ultimate goal is to use R&D to inspire large gains in productivity, especially in the agricultural and manufacturing sector (GoS, 2016). The importance attached to R&D in Swaziland is demonstrated in the country’s investment into a science and technology park, which houses both a biotechnology and an innovation park. Around the world, science, technology, and innovation (STI) is acknowledged as a driver of social and economic development and more recently, as a means to attain the sustainable development goals (SDGs). STI indicators are important as a starting point for monitoring progress on scientific and technological development and for formulating responsive STI policies.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Research, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

3187. The SDG 16 and PVE Agendas: Different Currencies or Two Sides of the Same Coin?

Author:
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini and Eric Rosand
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
With preventing violent extremism (PVE) and promoting inclusion, access to justice, and good governance (SDG 16) on the agenda of the opening of the 74th UNGA, this policy brief highlights key challenges impeding progress on the global PVE and SDG 16 agendas, underscoring how they are two sides of the same coin. The brief highlights practical ways policy and programming conversations around these two agendas at the global and national levels can strengthen and further empower, rather than, as is sometimes the case, impede progress on locally-led action to achieve these inter-related objectives.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Justice, Inclusion, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3188. The EU’s re-engagement with the Western Balkans

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
2018 was dominated by deep divisions among the EU member states despite the great expectations set by the European Commission’s February 2018 strategy paper. A major effort will now be required to restore credibility to the EU’s enlargement agenda and ensure a genuine re-engagement with the Western Balkans. It will be up to the new Commission to regain a leadership role and give the integration of the region into the EU the priority it deserves.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

3189. Scenarios for a Wider Europe

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This Policy Insights paper makes the case for enhancing the economic and political integration of the entire wider European space with the EU, involving all those neighbouring states willing to subscribe to EU standards while at the same time facilitating the EU’s further enlargement in due course. This would also amount to a consolidation of Europe’s values, and act as a strategic marker to rebut Russia’s efforts to undermine those values.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, European Union, Economy, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

3190. A two-way challenge: Enhancing EU cultural cooperation with Russia

Author:
Domenico Valenza and Fabienne Bossuyt
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
At a time of cooling relations, culture is arguably the European Union’s most powerful instrument to shape positive long-term relations with Russia. Against a convoluted international and domestic background, EU cultural action in the country is at present supported through a variety of financial instruments and programmes. Stakeholders and cultural operators agree that EU engagement in the cultural sphere plays a vital role in breaking civil society isolation and fostering long-term openness in Russia. However, in spite of considerable improvements, EU action in the cultural realm has still underutilised potential.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Cooperation, Culture, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

3191. Participatory Action Research for Advancing Youth-Led Peacebuilding in Kenya

Author:
Illana M. Lancaster, Sahlim Charles Amambia, Felix Bivens, Munira Hamisi, Olivia Ogada, Gregory Ochieng Okumu, Nicholas Songora, and Rehema Zaid
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
One-third of today’s generation of youth—those ages ten to twenty-four—live in fragile or conflicted countries and are susceptible to the sway of ideological narratives of violent extremism. Evidence suggests, however, that they also play active and valuable roles as agents of positive and constructive change. Part of a USIP portfolio that engages youth leaders as critical partners, this report documents an initiative undertaken in Kenya in 2017 and 2018 and explores its utility and effectiveness as an approach for youth-led peacebuilding in marginalized communities marked by violent extremism.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Violent Extremism, Democracy, Youth, and Peace
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

3192. What Works in Preventing Election Violence: Evidence from Liberia and Kenya

Author:
Inken von Borzyskowski
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Drawing on extensive field research in Kenya and Liberia around the 2017 elections in those countries, this report uses local survey data to evaluate the effectiveness of seven prevention measures thought to reduce the risk of election violence. Its recommendations, directed primarily to the international community but offering utility for regional and national agencies, offer ways to strengthen existing practices or address shortcomings and gaps in programming and enhance their ability to shape environments conducive to peaceful elections.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Liberia

3193. The Conflict Resource Economy and Pathways to Peace in Burma

Author:
Kevin M. Woods
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Burma’s natural resource economy is inextricably tied to the ongoing armed conflict within the country. Questions of who has what ownership rights over what resources and how these resources can be more equitably shared with the wider population loom large. This report focuses on Burma’s resource-rich ethnic states and territories near the borders with China and Thailand and suggests that a more robust, accountable, and equitable system for managing the country’s resource wealth can help lay down the pathways to peace.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Burma, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

3194. Transitioning Toward Gender Justice: A Trend Analysis of 13 African cases

Author:
Maxine Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Gender justice sees equal power relations, privilege, dignity, and freedom for people of different genders as a necessary component for any “just” society and a prerequisite for development.1 Gender justice includes gender equality, meaning substantive freedom for all genders to have genuine choices about their lives. Mirroring a global pattern in peace and security practice and policy-making, transitional justice (TJ) practice has tended to reduce gender justice concerns to violence against women (VAW). This policy brief advocates for policy-makers to adopt a broader and more meaningful understanding of gender justice, and to incorporate it into their TJ policymaking.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Gender Based Violence, Violence, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Algeria, Mozambique, and Rwanda

3195. Enhancing Peacekeeping Training Through Cooperation

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele, and Ariane Francisco
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
There is growing recognition at the UN and among member states that peacekeeping must be made more effective, especially in face of major budget cuts and wavering leadership by traditional actors. Against this backdrop, how can member states improve the quality of pre-deployment and mission preparation for UN peacekeeping? This policy brief focuses on one area in which innovation has become more urgent than ever: enhancing the effectiveness of peacekeeping through better training. More specifically, we analyze the emerging configurations, innovations, and challenges of international cooperation for peacekeeping training centers (PTCs), drawing on the case of Latin America.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Training, and Peace
Political Geography:
Latin America

3196. Gender and Mediation in Guinea-Bissau

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
On July 10, 2017, the President of Guinea Bissau, José Mário Vaz, met politician Domingos Simões Pereira, who had served as Prime Minister from 2014 to August 2015. Although Pereira remained head of the country’s major political party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cabo Verde (PAIGC), he had been dismissed (along with the entire cabinet) by the president in August 2015 during a power struggle between the two men. In a public statement, Vaz had justified the dismissal by referring to a “breach of trust. ” For two years following this event, Vaz and Pereira had refused to speak to each other over differences regarding the implementation of the Conakry Accord, which sought to address some of the root causes of the country’s recurring political instability. Given the personal acrimony involved, as well as political differences, the meeting between Vaz and Pereira came as something of a surprise to observers. Yet behind the scenes, a small group of women facilitators had worked intensely for months to bring the two men in the same room. The meeting resulted from their persistent yet discreet efforts to help lessen tensions around the impasse by promoting dialogue among the key actors. This policy brief addresses the origins and development of the Group of Women Facilitators (Grupo de Mulheres Facilitatoras – GMF), focusing on the period from May to November 2017. Although the brief does not offer a systematic evaluation of the initiative, the general impact of the GMF during these six months on the Conakry Agreement debates and, more broadly, on Guinea-Bissau’s political scene are assessed in light of the objectives the group set out for itself in May. The analysis draws on a combination of desk review of policy documents from the Guinea-Bissau government, major international organizations such as the UN and ECOWAS, and civil society entities in GuineaBissau, as well as semi-structured interviews with group members and other stakeholders carried out in Bissau in November 2017.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea-Bissau

3197. The Brazilian model of Investment Agreements and Socio-environmental Safeguards

Author:
Maria Elena Rodriguez and Gabriel de Barros Torres
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
With the purpose of contributing to expanding transnational investment flows, Brazil signed, in 2015, a series of Cooperation and Investment Facilitation Agreements (CIFAs) with African and Latin American countries. Among its provisions, the CIFAs feature distinctive characteristics in terms of direct (and indirect) expropriation, corporate social responsibility, dispute settlement mechanisms and national treatment clauses – ultimately, aiming to provide greater legal certainty for investors. However, civil society organizations have warned against the potential impact of this new model of investment agreements on the autonomy of states to establish regulations in the public interest. As such, this Quarterly Brief seeks to analyze similarities and differences between the new Brazilian CIFAs and traditional bilateral investment agreements – as well as to evaluate them in light of alternative frameworks, elaborated by civil society networks, aimed at balancing investment promotion with human and environmental rights protection.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, Regulation, Social Justice, Land Rights, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

3198. International Sustainable and Climate Finance: Where are we and which is the role of China on this?

Author:
Alice Amorim
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
This brief focuses on climate finance, as it encompasses a substantive part of the resources in this broader sustainability agenda. Having a better understanding of this field is important given the possible risk of other development resources being hijacked by the climate finance rhetoric. The paper also presents updated data on climate finance flows and for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda. Finally, it presents some evidence of how China and Chinese-led financial institutions are becoming key players in this field.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Finance, Risk, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
China

3199. Gender and Energy approaches by BASIC countries

Author:
Alice Amorim and Marco Antonio Teixeira
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
This Policy Brief analysis how the BASIC countries have incorporated gender and energy issues in their NDCs and assesses some of the interrelations between key energy and gender inequalities of the bloc.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Gender Issues, Renewable Energy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

3200. Assessing the JCPOA from a Historical Perspective

Author:
Christian Koch, Marc Finaud, and Bernd W. Kubbig
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This Policy Forum issue analyses the 2004-2006 initiative to establish a sub-regional zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Gulf (GWMDFZ) as a tool to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-weapon state. The initiative’s gradual approach which aimed at the ultimate goal of encompassing the entire Middle East (including Israel) was innovative, and the assertive role of some smaller Gulf states in expressing their security concerns/interests and verification standards that Tehran would have had to meet was unprecedented. But the entire sub-regional idea remained confined to the declaratory level. In contrast, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or greement/accord) – endangered as it currently is – struck between the E3/EU+3 and Iran exceeds some of the concerns of the earlier initiative, yet misses others. We conclude that new – and ultimately sustainable – regional forums as communication mechanisms are needed to tackle these issues without touching on the JCPOA. The challenges go beyond Iran and include the nuclear activities of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and even more so of Saudi Arabia. Our Cooperative Idea emphasises that moving beyond the purely declaratory policy of the GWMDFZ initiative could also help to overcome the current stalemate regarding a zonal disarmament arrangement for the whole Middle East/Gulf region.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations