Search

Begin New Search Topic Religion Political Geography Washington Content Type Policy Brief

1. One Year after the Cedar Revolution: The Potential for Sunni-Shiite Conflict in Lebanon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Acting Lebanese interior minister Ahmad Fatfat arrived in Washington June 20 for his first official visit in his new capacity. The U.S. trip comes one month after a radical Sunni Islamist organization was legalized in Lebanon, and just weeks after thousands of Shiite Hizballah supporters rioted in Beirut after the broadcast on LBC television of a comedy skit satirizing Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These developments highlight growing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon. Unchecked, this dynamic could lead to a resumption of the type of conflict that has long plagued Lebanon and threaten the gains of the Cedar Revolution.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

2. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation

Author:
Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Middle East

3. After the London Bombings: Meeting the Challenge of Young Muslims and Extremism

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although the U.S. and British governments have offered gestures of mutual diplomatic support and apparent political agreement in the aftermath of the July 7 terrorist bombings in London, such efforts mask the wide differences between their approaches to the increasing threat of al-Qaeda terrorism. On July 15, President George W. Bush, speaking in North Carolina about the bombings, stated, “The killers . . . did not care about their religion. . . . These people will not be stopped by negotiations. . . . There is only one course of action. We will take the fight to the enemy, and we will stay in this fight until this enemy is defeated.” The next day, Prime Minister Tony Blair, stated, “The greatest danger is that we fail to face up to the nature of the threat we are dealing with. . . . [N]o sane person would negotiate. . . . It cannot be beaten except by confronting it, symptoms and causes, head-on. Without compromise and without delusion.” The similarity in language was probably intentional. Yet, Washington's apparent preference for military force contrasts with Blair's categorization of Britain's strategy: “In the end, it is the power of argument, debate, true religious faith, and true legitimate politics that will defeat this threat.”
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Washington, and London

4. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties

Author:
David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
Topic:
International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement

Author:
Aviezer Ravitsky
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

6. Blair's Visit to Washington: British Politics and the Peace Process

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
British prime minister Tony Blair arrives in Washington on November 11 -- the first foreign leader to visit following President George W. Bush's reelection. The visit confirms Britain's status as America's most supportive ally and Blair's status as the president's closest foreign confidant. But the British leader is likely to use the two days of talks to place distance between himself and Bush. Unless obscured by diplomatic platitudes, the public differences will be most acute over the pace and direction of the Middle East peace process.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

7. Islam, Islamists, and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Martin Kramer and Gilles Kepel
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During the Cold War, Washington reached out to some Islamists in order to counter the Soviet threat. Some claim that engaging so-called "moderate" Islamists would serve U.S. interests today. But in any U.S.-Islamist dialogue, the Islamists are certain to demand concessions from the United States, including visas, freedom to raise money for their organizations, U.S. support for their participation in the politics of their home countries, and a reassessment of U.S. policy in the Middle East, including support for Israel. In return, Islamists would propose to condemn terrorist attacks against the United States, and discourage new attacks on American soil.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, and Arab Countries

8. A 'Muslim Refusenik' in Pursuit of Reform in Islam

Author:
Irshad Manji
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 7, 2004, Irshad Manji addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ms. Manji is host of the Canadian public television program Big Ideas and author of the bestselling book The Trouble with Islam: A Muslim's Call for Reform in her Faith (2004). She is currently launching "Operation Ijtihad," an initiative to revive Islam's lost tradition of independent thinking. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

9. Implications of the 9-11 Report: Recommendations for U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
Christopher Kojm, C. Michael Hurley, and Thomas Dowling
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 18, 2004, three staff members from the 9-11 Commission—Christopher Kojm, C. Michael Hurley, and Thomas Dowling—addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Kojm was the commission's deputy executive director. From 1998 until February 2003, he served as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence policy and coordination in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Mr. Dowling was a professional staff member with the commission. He retired from the U.S. Foreign Service in 2002 after a thirty-year career in which he served in several Middle Eastern countries. In his last assignment, he was the deputy director and acting director of the Office of Near East and South Asian Analysis in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Mr. Hurley was senior counsel on the commission and head of its counterterrorism team. A career CIA officer, he served as National Security Council director for the Balkans from 1998 to 1999. He also led CIA and military Special Forces teams in Afghanistan in the months after the September 11 attacks. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

10. The al-Qaeda Challenge to Saudi Arabia

Author:
Simon Henderson, Jonathan Schanzer, and Thomas Lippman
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 21, 2004, Jonathan Schanzer, Thomas Lippman, and Simon Henderson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Schanzer is a Soref fellow at the Institute and author of the monograph Al-Qaeda's Armies: Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror. Mr. Lippman is an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs. Simon Henderson, a London-based associate of The Washington Institute, currently heads Saudi Strategies, a group that advises governments and corporations on regional developments. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

11. Istanbul NATO Summit: Bridging Brussels and Baghdad?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Simon Serfaty, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, and Middle East

12. European Union Elections: Implications for Middle East Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

13. In the Wake of Arafat: Palestinian Politics, Disengagement, and U.S. Policy

Author:
David Makovsky, Aaron David Miller, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A transfer of power within the Palestinian Authority, coupled with the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, presents both challenges and opportunities for reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The preconditions of past peace treaties between Israel and its Arab neighbors have demonstrated the necessity for calm on the ground and strong leaders who can force their constituents to accept peace. Unfortunately, the past four years of fighting, the lack of strong leadership, and the asymmetry of power between the Israelis and Palestinians all act as bulwarks against necessary change. The situation is complicated by the need to prevent Hamas and local warlords from expanding their power. Nevertheless, from the Israeli perspective, there are some opportunities for change. The disengagement plan proves that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon understands that Israel cannot sustain the settlements, while the continued construction of the West Bank fence presents opportunities for new negotiations.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

14. Between Amman and Jerusalem: Reflections on Making Peace . . . And Making Peace Work

Author:
Efraim Halevy and Fayiz Tarawneh
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Jordan's ultimate strategic objective is peace in the Middle East. While the Jordan-Israel treaty remains seminal in importance for the Middle East and beyond, the continued bloodshed in the region sobers the anniversary celebration. The Jordan-Israel treaty reflected the courage and vision of King Hussein and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. Reaching agreement on this treaty was not always an easy process. The initial talks between the two countries in September 1993 resulted in a stalemate. The second round of talks in April 1994 was more successful, but when the United States was invited to serve as a guarantor, Washington balked at the idea of a Jordan-Israel treaty. Nevertheless, throughout the negotiations, Hussein and Rabin both demonstrated farsighted leadership and deep convictions about the absolute necessity of peace. They understood that they had to view each other as partners, not adversaries, and deal with each other directly. There is a place for third-party mediation and negotiation, but only when all other options have been exhausted and talks are at a standstill. The Jordan-Israel treaty and the Oslo negotiations are good examples of the efficacy of direct communication in peace talks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

15. The Missing Peace: A Conversation on Middle East Peacemaking

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 10, 2004, Madeleine Albright and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. As secretary of state, Albright was the highest-ranking woman in the history of the U.S. government. Currently, she is chairman of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and founder and principal of the Albright Group. Ambassador Ross, counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute, is author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2004). From 1989 to 2000, he served as the chief U.S. envoy to the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

16. Prospects of Israeli Disengagement: A Status Report

Author:
Dennis Ross and Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is absolutely determined to carry out disengagement despite the political problems within his own party. The demographic issue of ensuring a long-term Jewish democratic majority in Israel and the associated political pressure has fueled his determination to proceed with disengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

17. Assessing Hizballah's West Bank Foothold

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Zohar Palti
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When the IDF withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah realized that it had to change direction somewhat, primarily because it had lost its avowed justification (and any hint of international legitimacy) for carrying out attacks from Lebanon. Accordingly, Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general, instantly changed his rhetoric, focusing less on Lebanon and more on Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. In one speech, for example, he told Palestinians that it took Hizballah eighteen years to force Israel out of Lebanon, and that they could accomplish the same feat in even less time through armed struggle and suicide bombings.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

18. Sharon's Disengagement Plan: A Likud Perspective

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 6, the Israeli government approved a plan for unilateral separation by a 14 to 7 vote. The plan includes complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip (with the exception of the so-called "Philadelphi Corridor" on the Egypt-Gaza border) and from certain West Bank settlements. It is scheduled to be implemented beginning in March 2005 and should be completed by the end of that year.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

19. Security, Peace, and Israel's Strategy of Disengagement

Author:
Giora Eiland
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 7, 2004, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland of the Israel Defense Forces addressed The Washington Institute's Nineteenth Annual Soref Symposium. General Eiland is Israel's national security advisor. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

20. Time to Shut Down the PKK: Why the United States and Turkey Should Work Together

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A U.S. government team is in Ankara today for talks with members of the Turkish military and intelligence services regarding the future of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. On September 2, 2003, the PKK, whose past attacks have cost Turkey 35,000 lives, renounced a unilateral ceasefire it had declared in February 2000. This is a dangerous development for three reasons. First, PKK violence could throw Turkey back into the political maelstrom of the 1990s, and it is in Washington's best interests to help preserve democratic Turkey's stability. Second, if the PKK attacks Turkey from U.S.-controlled northern Iraq, where it has an estimated 4,000-5,000 terrorists, this could put Washington and Ankara at loggerheads. Third, Turkey considers joint action against the PKK a sine qua non for U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq; it is unlikely that Ankara will send troops to Iraq unless the PKK issue is tackled. Given all of these reasons, the threat that the PKK poses to U.S. national interests is now at such a level that the organization is a legitimate target in the war on terror. Therefore, it is time to take action against the PKK.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

21. Gaining Support for Action on Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

22. Shi'i Opposition in Iraq: An Emerging Challenge

Author:
Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Riots last week in Baghdad and Basra raised questions about Shi'i opposition to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). While the Shi'i community has been relatively quiet compared to the Sunni population, elements of the Shi'i have adopted a consistent position against the CPA, occupation forces, and the appointed Governing Council. If they deem it necessary, those opposed to occupation have the means and motives to move to armed resistance, which would pose a substantial threat to the coalition.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

23. European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking on Brussels' Door

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

24. U.S.-Turkish Military Cooperation in Iraq? The Next Step

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A surprising summit meeting yesterday in Ankara involving members of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, the Turkish General Staff, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization produced an agreement "in principle" to send Turkish "peacekeeping soldiers" to Iraq. From one perspective, if Turkish troops were deployed to Iraq, it could end the period of "strategic pause" between Washington and Ankara in place since March 1, when the Turkish parliament refused to open up a northern front for U.S. troops invading Iraq. There are still political obstacles to Turkish troop deployment -- such as a divided AKP and a fairly reluctant parliament. Moreover, Turkish law requires that parliament authorize sending troops abroad except in the case of international legislation (such as a UN resolution), or a call for help justifying such a deployment, and the Turkish parliament is in recess until October 1. But even before the AKP government determines its position on this issue, a major hurdle will have to be overcome: if American and Turkish troops are to work together in Iraq, they will first have to build mutual confidence, which -- once formidable -- seems to have quickly eroded over the past months. How can this be accomplished?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

25. Special Policy Forum Report: War on Terror -- A Perspective from Afghanistan

Author:
Abdullah Abdullah
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 14, 2003, Afghan foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Before serving as foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah was heavily involved in discussions on Afghanistan's future government. Previously, he was chief spokesman and deputy foreign minister of the Northern Alliance. Born to a Pashtun father and Tajik mother, he is also a trained medical doctor, serving at the Sayyed Jamaluddin-i-Afghani Eye Hospital for Afghan refugees in Peshawar, Pakistan.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

26. Can Americans, Turks, and Kurds Get Along in Northern Iraq? A Vision

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recently, the bitterness between Ankara and Washington over Turkey's failure to extend full support to the Iraq campaign culminated in a much-feared quagmire. On July 4, U.S. Army forces detained eleven Turkish special operations troops in Sulaymaniyah, northern Iraq, possibly based on Iraqi Kurdish intelligence that they were planning to harm Kurdish officials in Kirkuk. Fortunately, no shots were fired and no one was hurt in the incident. Still, the fact remains that U.S. troops arrested soldiers from Turkey, a NATO ally viewed as one of America's staunchest friends until late 2002. Moreover, the Turks were allegedly conspiring against Kurds, America's best friends in Iraq. How to interpret this unpleasant episode? What can be done to prevent similar incidents in the future? Most important, can the United States and Turkey move forward in northern Iraq?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

27. Reading the Popular Mood in Iran

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual elected leadership of President Muhammad Khatami?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

28. How Much Don't We Know? Government-Imposed Constraints on Middle East Media Coverage

Author:
Doug Jehl and Khaled Abu Toameh
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 2, 2003, Doug Jehl and Khaled Abu Toameh addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Jehl, currently with the New York Times' Washington bureau, served as the Times' Cairo bureau chief from 1995 to 2000 and, prior to that, as a White House correspondent for the paper. Mr. Abu Toameh is the West Bank and Gaza correspondent of the Jerusalem Post; previously, he served as a special correspondent for U.S. News and World Report, a senior writer for the Jerusalem Report, and a correspondent for Al Fajr. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
New York, Washington, Middle East, Gaza, and Arab Countries

29. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran's Nuclear Program -- Countdown?

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and David Albright
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 4, 2003, David Albright and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Albright is president of the Institute for Science and International Security and has also served as an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) weapons inspector in Iraq. Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in military and security affairs. His publications include Iranian Military Power: Capabilities and Intentions (The Washington Institute, 1996) and "Living with a Nuclear Iran?" (Survival, Autumn 1999).
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

30. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and Iran -- Crosswinds?

Author:
William A. Samii and Nasser Hadian
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 21, 2003, A. William Samii and Nasser Hadian addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Samii is an analyst at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, where he prepares the Iran Report. Dr. Hadian is a professor of political science at Tehran University and a visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute of Columbia University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Colombia, and Arabia

31. Special Policy Forum Report: An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East

Author:
Hazem Saghie
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 8, 2003, Hazem Saghie addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Saghie has been the editor of the weekly supplement of the London-based daily al-Hayat for the past fifteen years and served fourteen years in Beirut for the Lebanon daily al-Safir. He is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute and editor of The Predicament of the Individual in the Middle East (Saqi Books, 2000). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, London, Lebanon, Beirut, and Czech Republic

32. Special Policy Forum Report: Combating the Ideology of Radical Islam

Author:
Graham E. Fuller and Daniel Pipes
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 3, 2003, Daniel Pipes and Graham Fuller addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and an adjunct scholar of the Institute. His most recent book is Militant Islam Reaches America (W.W. Norton, 2002). Mr. Fuller is former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council at the Central Intelligence Agency and senior political scientist at RAND. His latest book is The Future of Political Islam (Palgrave, 2003). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

33. Basing Restrictions Shape Concept and Conduct of War

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With Saudi Arabian, Turkish, and Jordanian host-nation restrictions limiting coalition ground and air operations, the United States has begun to develop a range of Iraqi airfields as forward operating bases for combat aircraft. This is ironic considering that successive U.S. governments spent billions of dollars to develop an unparalleled basing environment to support U.S. power projection in the Gulf. Recent decisions by Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- key U.S. allies -- have arguably prevented Washington from waging a shorter and less costly war in terms of both blood and treasure. Yet, the United States has benefited greatly from its policy of diversifying basing assets in the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, recognizing that Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman are dependable allies and that Iraq may one day replace Saudi Arabia as a key airbase provider.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

34. Starting Over: U.S.-Turkish Relations in the Post-Iraq War Era

Author:
Mark Parris
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As demonstrated by President George W. Bush's request to Congress yesterday to provide Turkey with $1 billion in aid -- money that can be leveraged into $8 billion in loan guarantees -- Turkey will remain a key country for Washington. But the Iraq war is a watershed in U.S.-Turkish relations, and the partnership will inevitably involve a new agenda based on postwar realities.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

35. Promoting Saudi Civil Society: What role for the United States?

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes of foreign workers who practiced Christianity and held them in squalid, overcrowded prisons. Washington's dilemma lies in dealing with such evidence without upsetting Riyadh at a time when the United States is trying to secure optimal Saudi cooperation on military action against Iraq. The administration's reluctance is at odds with President George W. Bush's National Security Strategy announced in September 2002, which defined "a single, sustainable model for national success [in the world]: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise." It also obscures an opportunity to bolster emerging trends in Saudi Arabia that hint at potential political change.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

36. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and the Middle East -- A View from Cairo

Author:
Osama el-Baz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S.-Egyptian relations always have been a critical aspect of American involvement in the Middle East. Although Washington and Cairo have disagreed on certain issues, they have nevertheless maintained a significant partnership. As regional tensions mount amid the possibility of war with Iraq and continued violence on the Israeli-Palestinian front, it is important to take a fresh look at this partnership. Recently, the Egyptian government has conveyed its concerns to the United States on two major issues: the potential for war in Iraq and Washington's role in attaining Arab-Israeli peace.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Cairo

37. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland

38. Easy on the Stick: Why the United States Should Deconflict

Author:
Max Abrahms
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4 billion in military assistance, suggests that Washington is relying mainly on carrots to discourage an Israeli military response in the event of an Iraqi attack. These moves may explain Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent declaration, "We never had such cooperation in everything as we have with the current administration." Yet, precisely what form would this "cooperation" take if Iraq used weapons of mass destruction against Israel or otherwise inflicted mass casualties? Would Washington attempt to shape Israel's retaliatory options as it did during Operation Desert Storm?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

39. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
Topic:
Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

40. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq's WMD Declaration – How Important? How to Respond?

Author:
David Kay
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 6, 2002, David Kay addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. David Kay is a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute. He previously served as the UN's chief nuclear weapons inspector in Iraq, where he led teams that uncovered the scope and extent of Iraq's nuclear program. He has also served as corporate vice president of Science Applications International Corporation. UN Security Council Resolution 1441 required Iraq to submit a full and complete declaration of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and associated delivery systems by December 8. Given the stakes, and the fact that Iraq's previous declarations have been incomplete and misleading, the international community remains concerned, and the United States wary, of the Iraqi declaration.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

41. Special Policy Forum Report: Middle Eastern Studies – What Went Wrong?

Author:
Martin Kramer and Lisa Anderson
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 26, 2002, Martin Kramer and Lisa Anderson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Martin Kramer is the Institute's Wexler-Fromer fellow and author of its 2001 monograph Ivory Towers on Sand: The Failure of Middle Eastern Studies in America. Lisa Anderson is dean of international affairs at Columbia University and president of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Education, and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Colombia

42. Special Policy Forum Report: The War on Terror in the Shadow of the Iraq Crisis

Author:
Bruce Hoffman, Matthew Levitt, and Daniel Benjamin
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 4, 2002, Bruce Hoffman, Daniel Benjamin, and Matthew Levitt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Hoffman is vice president of external relations at RAND and author of Inside Terrorism (Columbia University Press, 1998). Benjamin is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, former director of transnational threats at the National Security Council, and coauthor of The Age of Sacred Terror (Random House, 2002). Levitt is a senior fellow in terrorism studies at the Institute and author of Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy Toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11 (The Washington Institute, 2002).
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Colombia

43. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part II): Smokescreen or Substance?

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, Adel al-Jubeir, foreign policy advisor to Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, presided over a Washington press conference and the release of a report, "Initiatives and Actions Taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Financial Area to Combat Terrorism." The press conference marked the first time that Saudi Arabia has publicly committed to formal cooperation with international bodies in the fight against terrorist financing and money laundering. Yet, the event also included a number of disturbing statements.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

44. Upcoming Turkish Elections: Likely Winners and Implications for Foreign Policy

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, the Turks will go to the polls to elect their new government. The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with Islamist pedigree – the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – to power. Should Washington worry about the foreign policy orientation of a new Turkish administration and its willingness to support a military campaign against Iraq?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

45. Changing Rogue Regimes

Author:
Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
King Abdullah of Jordan's visit to Washington tomorrow offers the Bush administration an opportunity to clarify the relationship between regime change in Baghdad and progress in the Israel-Palestinian arena. Last Monday, the king told British prime minister Tony Blair that in light of the failure to move the peace process forward, military action against Iraq would open a Pandora's box.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

46. The Bush Speech vs. The Powell Mission: Assessing Washington's Twin and Competing Middle East Policies

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The best way to view the current situation is by recognizing that there are actually six wars going on simultaneously: 1) the Israeli-Palestinian war; 2) the war against terror; 3) the war against Saddam Husayn and the axis of evil; 4) the war within the Arab world between rulers and ruled; 5) the war among Israelis to determine Israel's future and a long-term strategy; and 6) the war for the heart and soul of the Bush administration's Middle East policy. These wars overlap, intersect, and converge, but they are not the same. One affects the other, usually in negative ways.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

47. Ecevit to Washington: Opportunities for U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:
Mark Parris
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Visits by Turkish prime ministers to Washington have tended in years past to be low-profile events. With imagination and boldness on the American side, the January 16 meeting between President George W. Bush and Turkish prime minister Bulent Ecevit has the potential to be a watershed in a relationship that will affect vital U.S. interests well into the new century.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

48. Special Policy Forum Report -- Islam and the Use of Force: The Views of Contemporary Muslim Clerics on Terrorism, Violence, and Conflict

Author:
Akbar Ahmed and Emmanuel Sivan
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 6, 2001, Akbar Ahmed and Emmanuel Sivan addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Professor Ahmed holds the Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at the American University's School of International Service and has most recently authored Islam Today: A Short Introduction to the Muslim World. Professor Sivan is professor of Islamic history at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and has written the book Radical Islam. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

49. Focusing on Iraq: The Question is How, Not Whether

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In Washington, the debate over Iraq is shifting from the simple question of whether it should be targeted in phase II of the antiterror war, to how we should deal with a country that continually refuses to fulfill its UN obligations and surrender weapons of mass destruction (WMD). From the latter viewpoint, options for Iraqi policy are not confined to the extremes of either complete inactivity or dispatching 500,000 troops for a ground campaign. There are numerous approaches that the Bush administration can take if it is determined to increase pressure on Saddam Husayn's regime. President Bush spoke on Monday about the importance of resuming UN-mandated arms-control inspections in Iraq, and the Security Council has been considering this week whether to revitalize sanctions on Iraq.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

50. Special Policy Forum Report: The Status of Middle Eastern Studies in America

Author:
Michael Kramer
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two decades ago, a generation of Middle East scholars in America revolted against their teachers — the founders of Middle Eastern studies in America. They did so in a bid to revitalize funding and job opportunities in the field. The banner they waived was that of Edward Said's 1978 Orientalism, in which he argued that Europeans and Americans were afflicted by bias when analyzing trends in the region. In effect, that left Middle Easterners as the only scholars who could claim to study the region objectively. Said's followers then proceeded to take over the field of Middle Eastern studies in America. But now, the revolutionaries have become the establishment, and it is time for the younger generation of Middle East scholars to effect a revolution against their own teachers..
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

51. The War Against Terror: The Caution of the Conservative Arab States of the Persian Gulf

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At a meeting over the weekend in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, foreign ministers of the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf pledged "total cooperation" for international efforts to bring those responsible for the terror attacks in New York and Washington to justice. But the nuances in attitudes of the group — the oil states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman — suggest that the United States faces huge difficulties in achieving, publicly at least, anything more than partial cooperation.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

52. The War Against Terror: Saudi Arabia's Crucial Role

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The visit to Washington this week by Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal is an early test of Saudi Arabia's ability and willingness to work with U.S. authorities in meeting the threat of terrorism led by Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden. Although the United States is the kingdom's strongest ally and has historically helped make it the world's largest oil exporter, the recent past does not augur well.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

53. Special Policy Forum Report: Terror Against America: Assessment and Implications

Author:
Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 13, 2001, Dennis Ross, counselor and distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute, delivered a presentation at a special briefing on the September 11 terrorist attacks. The following is an adaptation of Ambassador Ross's remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

54. Special Policy Forum Report: Terror Against America: Assessment and Implications

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 13, 2001, Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute, and Dennis Ross, counselor and distinguished fellow at the Institute, held a special briefing on the September 11 terrorist attacks. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Satloff's remarks; the report of Ambassador Ross's remarks will be distributed tomorrow.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

55. Special Policy Forum Report: Durban, the Human Rights Community, and the Middle East

Author:
Irwin Cotler
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 7, 2001, Irwin Cotler, member of the Canadian parliament and co-chair of the Joint House-Senate Parliamentary Human Rights Group, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

56. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

57. Iraq Policy: Thinking Beyond Smart Sanctions

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
August 2, 2001 marks eleven years since Saddam Husayn invaded Kuwait. Given Washington's unsuccessful effort to win UN Security Council approval for a reformed sanctions regime, the Bush administration must now reconsider the options for Iraq policy.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

58. Special Policy Forum Report: Arab States vs. Islamists -- Past Record, Future Prospects

Author:
Ibrahim Karawan
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 10, 2001, Professor Ibrahim Karawan, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah and Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The record of prediction about Islamism as a political force has been unimpressive. The failure is due to inadequacies in conceptualizing what is known, more than any shortage of raw data.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

59. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

60. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

61. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

62. President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East. Its prescriptions about the Middle East, however, are vague. At worst, Washington appears unwilling to criticize the price-influencing production policies of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, dominated by Middle Eastern countries.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

63. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey -- Today's Political and Economic Realities

Author:
Tansu Ciller
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 8, 2001, Tansu Ciller, former prime minister and the leader of Turkey's True Path Party, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. At the dawn of the new millennium, Turkey remains a significant actor in its region despite economic difficulties. Turkey, a strategic partner with the United States, is a source of steadiness that is vital for peace in its region. Turkey's long relations with Israel play a stabilizing role in the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

64. Special Policy Forum Report: Partners in Need: Russia and Iran's Strategic Relationship

Author:
Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In April, Brenda Shaffer, research director of Harvard University's Caspian Studies Program and visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000, addressed The Washington Institute to mark the publication of her Policy Paper, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. Russia and Iran see themselves as strategic partners, and therefore their relations are based on an overall security conception. It would be a misperception to assume that because Washington and Moscow share concerns about Islamist radicalism that Russia would necessarily decide to cooperate with the United States on Iran. It would also be a misperception to think that Russia wants to sell arms to Iran solely in order to make money and that the United States can induce Russia not to make these sales by offering a better economic deal.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

65. Hariri in Washington

Author:
Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri begins his visit to Washington, his first since the September 2000 elections that saw his return to the office he held from October 1992 to December 1998. His ears are ringing with voices of two interwoven debates at home — namely, debates about the deterioration of the security situation along the Lebanese–Israeli border and about the continued Syrian presence in Lebanon. Hariri, a seasoned businessman who is well aware of the delicacy of the situation and of his limitations as the head of a government with restricted powers, does not see this visit as a mere courtesy call, but as a milestone. To assure his own political survival, he needs to extricate Lebanon from its severe economic crisis and avoid entanglement in war. For the new American administration that is still formulating its Middle Eastern policy, this visit could be an opportunity to prevent a conflagration in Lebanon and to begin a new long-term policy towards Lebanon and Syria.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

66. Special Policy Forum Report: Libya After Lockerbie: Internal Dynamics and U.S. Policy

Author:
Ray Takeyh and Robert Pelletreau
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 2, Ray Takeyh, Soref fellow at The Washington Institute, and Ambassador Robert Pelletreau, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Libya, and North Africa