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302. Turkey and Saudi Arabia: Newly Discovered Partners?
- Author:
- Muhittin Ataman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- When we consider Saudi Arabian large population, territories and natural resources, it is obvious that it will continue to preserve its geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural importance in future. The assumption of King Abdullah as the ruler of the country provided an opportunity to restructure the country's foreign policy. The new king began to follow a more pragmatic, rational, interdependent, multilateral and multidimensional foreign policy. He pursues an active foreign policy required to be less dependent on a single state (the United States) and on a single product (oil).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Political Economy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
303. Prospects for Global Growth in 2012
- Author:
- Onur Bayramoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The current concern among many is that what we are faced today is not a usual crisis that is part of the economic cycle, but an era of great stagnation with low growth and high unemployment, not witnessed since the Great Depression of the 1930's. One wonders which country will drive global growth while major actors such as the European Union are now financial casinos, the United States is continuously losing its dynamism, Japan is struggling under demographical problems, and the emerging markets are still too small and volatile. Once again, policy makers acknowledge that the problems of growth are global and systematic; such that if one faces an issue, all of them get contaminated. However, they still seek for solutions in mercantilist national policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
304. Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment
- Author:
- Leonardo Maugeri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Oil Production Growth is Global. Global oil output capacity is likely to grow from 93 million barrels per day today to 110 million barrels per day by 2020—the largest increase in a single decade since the 1980s. The surge in oil production capacity will occur almost everywhere, with the largest increases in Iraq, the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela. United States Will Experience Unprecedented Output. Technological advances will increase the production of “unconventional” oil in the United States, which is in the midst of a shale boom. The Bakken/Three Forks formation in North Dakota alone has as much untapped shale/tight oil as a Persian Gulf country. Oil Prices May Collapse. If oil prices remain at or above $70 per barrel, investments will sustain the 20 percent increase in oil production capacity by 2020. However, world demand is sluggish due to the lagging economy and focus on energy efficiency. If these trends continue, we could see a significant dip—or even a temporary collapse—of oil prices. Shifting Market Has Geopolitical Consequences. While the Western Hemisphere could become oil self-sufficient by 2020, Iraq's oil output will also substantially increase as it stabilizes. China may escalate its competitive and political influence in the Persian Gulf and other oil-producing hotspots, including Canada, Venezuela, and possibly the United States. Oil Boom Must Trigger Environmental Action. Enforcement of environmental regulation and major investment in emission-reducing technologies must accompany the development of unconventional oil. Without this balance between industry and environmental interests, new oil production projects will be stymied or delayed.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Oil, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States
305. Priority-Setting in Health: Building Institutions for Smarter Public Spending
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman and Kalipso Chalkidou
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Health donors, policymakers, and practitioners continuously make life-and-death decisions about which type of patients receive what interventions, when, and at what cost. These decisions—as consequential as they are—often result from ad hoc, nontransparent processes driven more by inertia and interest groups than by science, ethics, and the public interest. The result is perverse priorities, wasted money, and needless death and illness. Examples abound: In India, only 44 percent of children 1 to 2 years old are fully vaccinated, yet open-heart surgery is subsidized in national public hospitals. In Colombia, 58 percent of children are fully vaccinated, but public monies subsidize treating breast cancer with Avastin, a brand-name medicine considered ineffective and unsafe for this purpose in the United States.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, and Colombia
306. The 2012 Presidential Election and American Foreign Policy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Dov Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The United States presidential election in November comes at a crucial moment in world affairs, particularly in the Middle East. The year-long uprising in Syria has devolved into civil war. The conflict between Iran, on the one hand, and the U.S., Europe, and Israel, on the other, has not been diffused. The transition of power in Iraq and the planned force reduction in Afghanistan suggest that both countries will continue to experience marked change. The future of relations with new governments in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen must be reshaped.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
307. Unleashing Competition in EU Business Services
- Author:
- Henk L.M. Kox
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In most EU member states, the business services industry has booked no productivity growth during the last two decades. The industry's performance in the other member states was weaker than that of its US counterparts. Exploring what may be causing this productivity stagnation, this policy brief reports that weak competition has contributed to the continuing malaise in European business services. The study analyzed the persistence (over time) of firm-level inefficiencies. The evidence further suggests that competition between small firms and large firms in business services is weak. Markets for business services work best in countries with flexible regulation on employment change and with low regulatory costs for firms that start up or close down a business. Countries that are more open to foreign competition perform better in terms of competitive selection and productivity.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
308. How to Promote International Religious Freedom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- President Obama's 2009 Cairo speech and Secretary Clinton's 2012 speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace persuasively argued for policies that promote international religious freedom (IRF), including links to national security, economic development, and democracy promotion, and as an antidote to religious extremism and terrorism. Unfortunately, current IRF policy--in place since 1998 and largely built around the threat of economic sanctions which no administration has been willing to use--is not up to the challenges or the opportunities that President Obama and Secretary Clinton so eloquently identified. To correct that, the White House needs to embrace a leadership role, building an infrastructure and providing the necessary resources for a reinvigorated policy of new tools and strategies to thrive. The need is pressing.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Economics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
309. How to Integrate Human Rights into U.S.-China Relations
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- When to press China's leadership on human rights, how hard, and with what tools has been an ever-changing calculation, as successive U.S. administrations have tried to balance America's strategic and economic interests in the expanding U.S.-China relationship with America's leadership as an advocate for and protector of universal rights and freedoms.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
310. How to Protect and Expand Internet Freedom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- The rapid development of the Internet presents profound opportunities and challenges for U.S. interests around the world, particularly around the promotion and protection of human rights. The Internet is the steward of our economic, social, and political activity, but clearly the Internet itself is not the advocate for its possibilities: governments are. How the U.S. government organizes itself and collaborates with the businesses in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector to create policies and priorities for the Internet will set the foundation of whether the Information Age will be a success story for human rights.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Science and Technology, International Affairs, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- United States
311. How to Protect LGBTI Persons around the World from Violence
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- The United States has unique experience fighting violent hate crime and discrimination, and the protection of the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) people has become a signature human rights initiative of the Obama Administration. In 2009, Congress passed the Matthew Shepherd and James Byrd Hate Crime Prevention Act, with bipartisan support and the endorsement of a wide range of constituencies with differing views on LGBTI equality. The law--and the coalition that supported it--is a model of how to marshal the range of U.S. resources to improve responses to all hate crime, including acts of violence based on sexual orientation and gender identity bias.
- Topic:
- Crime, Human Rights, International Affairs, Governance, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
312. How to Repair the U.S. Asylum and Refugee Resettlement Systems
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- The Obama Administration, as it embarks on its second term, should reaffirm U.S. leadership on the protection of refugees by repairing flaws in the U.S. asylum and resettlement systems. Many of these flaws have persisted for years, undermining U.S. leadership and leaving refugees in difficult and vulnerable situations. The White House should lead this effort and launch stronger mechanisms to safeguard protection throughout U.S. agencies. The administration should also look for opportunities to move some of these repairs forward in concert with broader immigration reform initiatives.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Immigration, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
313. How to Repair the U.S. Immigration Detention System
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- As the Obama Administration embarks on its second term and recommits itself to immigration reform, it should prioritize its commitment to transform the immigration detention system . In 2009, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) committed to overhaul the U.S. immigration detention system and shift it away from its longtime reliance on jails and jail-like facilities. Since that time, ICE has taken steps to address some of the problems in the existing system. It has, for example, hired onsite detention service managers to improve oversight, implemented new parole guidance for arriving asylum seekers, and streamlined the process for detainee health care treatment authorization. It has also taken a number of steps towards a broader transformation of the system, such as opening a “model” civil detention facility in Karnes County, Texas, that offers conditions more appropriate for immigration detainees.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Governance, Law Enforcement, Law, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
314. Korea, Colombia, Panama: Pending Trade Accords Offer Economic and Strategic Gains for the United States
- Author:
- Mauricio Cá¡rdenas and Joshua Meltzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- A trio of trade agreements now pending before Congress would benefit the United States both economically and strategically. Carefully developed accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama will boost U.S. exports significantly, especially in the key automotive, agricultural and commercial services sectors. Among the other benefits are: increased U.S. competitiveness enhancement of U.S. diplomatic and economic postures in East Asia and Latin America new investment opportunities better enforcement of labor regulation and improved transparency in these trading partners' regulatory systems.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, United States, Israel, Colombia, and Latin America
315. America's Energy Security Options
- Author:
- Trevor Houser
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Like clock-work, as US gasoline prices approached $4 a gallon in spring 2011, energy security moved to the forefront of the American political debate. Global oil prices have recovered from their collapse during the financial crisis more quickly than expected due to resilient developing-country demand and political instability throughout the Middle East and North Africa. As with past oil price spikes, politicians have been quick to offer silver bullet solutions to lower gas prices and make America more energy secure. But given the complexity of the US energy system and global energy markets, it is difficult for even informed observers to evaluate how far current proposals go in solving the country's energy security challenge.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Biofuels
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa
316. What Should the United States Do about Doha?
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) remains stalled despite the political impetus provided by the Seoul G-20 Summit in November 2010. The major trading nations have not revised their positions enough to propel new negotiations on agriculture, manufactures, and services. There is now little chance to complete an agreement this year and little indication that current efforts could succeed next year.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
317. Where Do We Stand in the Field of Nuclear Disarmament: What Is Next After the New START
- Author:
- Nurşin Ateşoğlu Güney
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) agreement, without any doubt, has started a new debate on whether the international community has finally entered a renaissance in the field of disarmament after a long period of stalemate. In this regard, the New START agreement, together with the New York Nuclear Safety Summit of 2010 and the NPT Review Conference of 2010, seems to be creating a rather positive atmosphere. Yet, if one examines the discussions that took place at the US and the Russian parliament's before and after the ratification of the New START, he/she will come to the conclusion that the progress on nuclear disarmament, at the levels of both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, will not be an easy one. The situation will remain unchanged unless certain contentious military issues between Washington and Moscow are somehow resolved. In this regard, the next round of the New START agreement will be crucial. This situation will not only affect the future of the US and the Russian militaries' relationships to one another, but it will also change the balance of relations among the nuclear “haves” and “have nots” of the NPT Treaty. It is, therefore, expected that the NPT's two tracks, namely disarmament and nuclear nonproliferation, will be affected either in a positive or negative way in the future, depending on the evolution of the post New START era. Within this perspective, the possibility that US and Russia will implement new disarmament agreements has gained utmost importance in the aftermath of the New START for the future implications of the US President Barack Obama's “Global Zero Policy.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and New York
318. Shaping global business conduct: The 2011 update of the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises
- Author:
- Manfred Schekulin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- On May 25, 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined ministers from members of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and developing economies to celebrate the Organisation\'s 50th anniversary and agree on an update of the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, the fifth revision since their adoption in 1976. This marked the culmination of an intense one-year negotiating process involving a large number of stakeholders, international organizations and emerging economies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
319. Beyond treasuries: A foreign direct investment program for U.S. infrastructure
- Author:
- Geraldine McAllister and Joel H. Moser
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- In his jobs address to a joint session of Congress last week, President Obama returned to a familiar theme: a call for nontraditional infrastructure investment as a generator of economic growth and, ultimately, jobs. The President's frequent references to “private investment” and “fully paid” infrastructure are encouraging, yet there is no assurance that domestic private capital investment alone is sufficient to reverse the degradation of the nation's infrastructure. As host to the largest flows of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), it is time that the United States employs this critical source of capital in tackling the nation's infrastructure deficit.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
320. A Memo to Ban Ki-moon
- Author:
- Richard Gowan and Bruce D. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Congratulations. You have not only won a second five---year term at the United Nations, but you also won with a minimum of fuss. In a month in which the Security Council has been rocked by disputes over Syria, all fifteen members backed you. Last week, the General Assembly gave you unanimous support.
- Topic:
- International Organization, United Nations, International Affairs, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Syria
321. US Tax Discrimination Against Large Corporations Should Be Discarded
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States holds contradictory views about large corporations. When Americans speak of breakthroughs in research and engineering, they are justly proud of large firms that pioneered railroads and steam engines in the 19th century, automobiles, electric power, and oil exploration in the 20th century, and computers, software, and biotechnology in the 21st century. Yet when talk turns to paying taxes, public opinion holds that large corporations should pay a higher statutory tax rate than other business firms, and enjoy fewer deductions in computing their taxable income. Despite common sense and the teachings of economics, tax discrimination is alive and well.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
322. US Climate Change Policy Efforts
- Author:
- Dallas Burtraw
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Until recently, most of the attention in US climate policy was focused on legislative efforts to introduce a price on carbon through cap and trade. Since that policy has stalled, at least at the national level, the Clean Air Act has assumed the central role in the development of regulations that will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US. The modern Clean Air Act (CAA) was passed in 1970 and conveys broad authority to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to develop regulations to mitigate harm from air pollution. In 2007 the Supreme Court confirmed that this authority applied to the regulation of GHGs ( Massachusetts v. EPA). Subsequently, the agency made a formal, science-based determination that GHGs were dangerous to human health and the environment, which compels the agency to mitigate the harm and forms the basis for the agency's regulation of GHG emissions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States
323. Beyond Viktor Bout: Why the United States needs an Arms Trade Treaty
- Author:
- Scott Stedjan and Colby Goodman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- With the trial of Viktor Bout nearly underway and the UN negotiations on an Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) starting in the summer of 2012, this briefing paper seeks to provide the reader with a deeper understanding of the challenges the US government faces in tackling unscrupulous arms brokers abroad and to show how the adoption of a strong and comprehensive ATT could help the United States and other governments in such efforts.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, International Cooperation, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Nations
324. China's Aircraft Carrier: Chinese Naval Nationalism and Its Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Robert Ross
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In August 2011, after years of planning and development, China launched its first aircraft carrier—the refurbished Soviet carrier Varyag—which China purchased from Ukraine in 1998. This development represents a major benchmark in China's naval modernization program. In addition, there are reports that China is building two aircraft carriers, which means that within five years the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could possess a total of three such vessels.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Ukraine
325. Attacks on Nuclear Infrastructure: Opening Pandora's Box?
- Author:
- Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Advocates argue that air strikes against the nuclear infrastructure of a targeted state can deny it the option of producing nuclear weapons or at least create delays in its nuclear weapons program. Critics counter that such attacks may intensify the state's determination to acquire nuclear weapons and make a difficult problem more challenging in the long term. Despite the apparent appeal of targeted strikes, states rarely resort to them.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
326. U.S. Special Envoys: A Flexible Tool
- Author:
- John K. Naland
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- While the U.S. government has long employed special envoys for occasional diplomatic missions, the Obama administration's 24 special envoys represent an unprecedented expansion of this mechanism after the Bush administration, which generally did not use them.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States
327. Herbert Hoover: Father of the New Deal
- Author:
- Steven Horwitz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Politicians and pundits portray Herbert Hoover as a defender of laissez faire governance whose dogmatic commitment to small government led him to stand by and do nothing while the economy collapsed in the wake of the stock market crash in 1929. In fact, Hoover had long been a critic of laissez faire. As president, he doubled federal spending in real terms in four years. He also used government to prop up wages, restricted immigration, signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, raised taxes, and created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation-all interventionist measures and not laissez faire. Unlike many Democrats today, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's advisers knew that Hoover had started the New Deal. One of them wrote, "When we all burst into Washington ... we found every essential idea [of the New Deal] enacted in the 100-day Congress in the Hoover administration itself."
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
328. Publication Practices for Transparent Government
- Author:
- Jim Harper
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Government transparency is a widely agreed upon goal, but progress on achieving it has been very limited. Transparency promises from political leaders such as President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner have not produced a burst of information that informs stronger public oversight of government. One reason for this is the absence of specifically prescribed data practices that will foster transparency.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Political Economy, Politics, Communications, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
329. Chinese FDI in the United States is taking off: How to maximize its benefits?
- Author:
- Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) grew rapidly in the past decade, but flows to developed economies have been limited. Now China's direct investment flows to the United States are poised to rise substantially. This new trend offers tremendous opportunities for the U. S., provided policymakers take steps to keep the investment environment open and utilize China's new interest productively.
- Topic:
- Climate Change and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
330. Migration as a Tool for Disaster Recovery: U.S. Policy Options in the Case of Haiti
- Author:
- Michael Clemens and Tejaswi Velayudhan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The United States should take modest steps to create a legal channel for limited numbers of people fleeing natural disasters overseas to enter the United States. This would address two related problems: the lack of any systematic U.S. policy to help the growing numbers of people displaced across borders by natural disasters and the inability of U.S. humanitarian relief efforts to reduce systemic poverty or sustainably improve victims' livelihoods. The aftermath of the 2010 Haiti earthquake presents a compelling case study of the administrative and legislative ways the U.S. government could address both problems. Migration is already a proven and powerful force for reducing Haitians' poverty. A few modest changes in the U.S. approach could greatly aid Haiti's recovery.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, and Developing World
- Political Geography:
- United States, Caribbean, and Haiti
331. Austerity ahead: How will a conservative victory change Spanish politics?
- Author:
- Teemu Sinkkonen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The electoral defeat suffered by the ruling Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE) in the municipal elections and the prolonged financial crisis has forced Prime Minister Zapatero to call an early general election on 20 November. The Conservative People's Party (Partido Popular, PP) is ahead in the polls by a clear margin and is likely to gain an absolute majority in the parliament. The economic outlook for Spain looks bleak, which means that the new government will have to create new jobs quickly and push through harsh and unpopular reforms, particularly regarding the fiscal and administrative structures. The Indignados protest movement is gaining support, and looks set to challenge the legitimacy of the system and force the future government to produce speedy results. Spain is expected to enhance its role in international politics through pragmatic bilateral relations. In particular, relations with the US seem to be warming up, while Spain can turn to the UK and Poland in the EU for companionship
- Topic:
- Debt, Democratization, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain
332. From Militants to Policemen: Three Lessons from U.S. Experience with DDR and SSR
- Author:
- Alison Laporte-Oshiro
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Consolidating the legitimate use of force in the hands of the state is a vital first step in post-conflict peacebuilding. Transitional governments must move quickly to neutralize rival armed groups and provide a basic level of security for citizens. Two processes are vital to securing a monopoly of force: disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration and security sector reform. Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) involve disbanding armed groups that challenge the government's monopoly of force. Security sector reform (SSR) means reforming and rebuilding the national security forces so that they are professional and accountable. U.S. experience in Afghanistan, Iraq, Liberia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo yielded three crosscutting lessons: go in heavy, tackle DDR and SSR in tandem, and consolidate U.S. capacity to implement both tasks in a coordinated, scalable way.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti, and Liberia
333. Going for Broke: The Budgetary Consequences of Current US Defense Strategy.
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The sharp rise in the Pentagon's base budget since 1998 (46% in real terms) is substantially due to strategic choice, not security requirements, per se. It reflects a refusal to set priorities as well as a move away from the traditional goals of military deterrence, containment, and defense to more ambitious ends: threat prevention, command of the commons, and the transformation of the global security environment. The geographic scope of routine US military activity also has expanded.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
334. The Pentagon's New Mission Set: A Sustainable Choice?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Today, the United States enjoys an abundance of military power, but it is a uniquely expensive asset. During the past 20 years we have sought new ways to put this asset to work. Reviewing the change in the Pentagon's mission set, several broad trends are discernible: Mission objectives have grown much more ambitious, generally. The geographic scope for intensive US military efforts has widened significantly. Across the globe, the focus of US military action and investment has become less discriminate and more sweeping or comprehensive. Missions that put US “boots on the ground” in foreign nations in either a direct action, advisory, or capacity- building role have grown much more prominent. US policy continues to emphasize multinational approaches to addressing security issues, however the trend has been for the United States to play an ever more prominent role as the convener, governor, and quartermaster of joint action.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
335. Strategic Adjustment to Sustain the Force: A survey of current proposals.
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The essential challenge in the art of strategy is how to achieve objectives within the demanding reality of resource constraints. Agile strategists must always be prepared for changing resource conditions and quickly adapt accordingly.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
336. Pentagon cuts in context: No reason for "doomsday" hysteria
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Recent Obama administration defense budget requests and proposals all fall within a narrow range of possible expenditures for the 2013-2023 period. All have kept the Pentagon's base budget above Cold War spending peaks. The President's 13 April proposal is no exception. It is a modest step that, at best, aims to retract future budget plans by 6.5 percent or $400 billion. The resulting average annual Pentagon base budget f or 2013-2023 would be close to today's level in real terms. The President's slice into non-security discretionary spending plans is audacious by comparison, reversing the proportionately suggested by his Fiscal Commission, and increasing the proportion of discretionary spending allocated to the Pentagon. The President's proposed new constraints on Pentagon budget growth hardly risk America's role in the world, as some contend, and by themselves do not necessitate a strategic review. Still, the President's launch of a such a review is a welcome development. It can help return America' s military posture to a reasonable and sustainable footing – provided that it elicits broad debate, solicits alternative viewpoints, and reaches beyond a $400 billion crease in the Pentagon's future budget plans.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Cold War, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
337. Continuing Resolution: Congress Goes Easy on DoD Rebalances Budget in Pentagon's Favor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The struggle over a full-year Continuing Resolution (CR) shows that both houses of congress are “going light” on DoD, pointing toward a discretionary budget balanced more heavily in favor of the Pentagon. Within the so-called “security basket,” International Affairs is set to be the big loser. Setting aside war costs, the Pentagon budget constitutes about 50% of discretionary spending. The Pentagon accounted for an even greater proportion of the rise in discretionary spending during the past ten years of debt accumulation. Nonetheless, both the House and Senate efforts to cut spending for FY-2011 allocate much less than 50% of the pain to DoD's base expenditures. The House allocates only 15% of its proposed cuts to DoD. The Senate, about 38%.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
338. The Pentagon and Deficit Reduction: FY-2012 Budget Retains Exceptional Level of Defense Spending
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- President Obama's 2012 budget plan maps out a future of steady increases for the National Defense account (apart from war costs, which the budget presumes will decline). The budget sets the base or peacetime portion of national defense to rise from $551.9 billion in 2010 to $637.6 billion in 2016 - a boost of about 15.5%. This increase exceeds the expected rate of inflation by about seven-tenths of a percent per year.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Debt
- Political Geography:
- United States
339. What Can and Cannot Be Done about Rating Agencies
- Author:
- Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) are prominent participants in the assessment of credit risk by financial markets. They determine and publish credit ratings, which represent the CRA's opinions on issuers' relative probability of default. The market for credit ratings is currently dominated in most western countries by three players: n Standard Poor's (S) is a division of the McGraw- Hill Companies, a US-based media group whose ownership is dispersed (the largest shareholder is Capital Group, with 12 percent of shares); n Moody's Corporation is an autonomous US-based listed company with dispersed ownership (the largest shareholder is Berkshire Hathaway, with 12.5 percent of shares); n Fitch Ratings is a division of the Fitch Group which is jointly owned by Fimalac, a Paris-based listed investment vehicle (60 percent of shares), and the US-based Hearst Corporation (40 percent of shares).
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
340. The United States Should Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After 18 years, Russia is finally on the verge of acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO). No country has struggled for so long to become a member of this important organization. The last impediment was removed on November 9, when Russia and Georgia concluded an agreement on monitoring trade flows across their disputed border. The WTO Working Party, which oversaw the negotiations, then approved Russian accession on November 10, clearing the way for formal membership to be adopted at the WTO ministerial conference to be held December 15–17, 2011 (WTO 2011).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Georgia
341. The Current Currency Situation
- Author:
- William R. Cline and John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The currency markets have been extremely disturbed for the last three months. The period witnessed a major strengthening of the US dollar in September, then the European currency crisis, a recovery of the euro when the markets believed that the crisis was being controlled, and then a rebound of the dollar. In view of these developments, those who follow currency movements need a new guide as to how the current values of currencies compare to our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). That is the main object of this paper.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
342. More Prisoners Versus More Crime is the Wrong Question
- Author:
- Jens Ludwig and Philip J. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The unprecedented surge in incarceration since 1980 has stimulated a national debate between those who claim that locking up over 2 million people is necessitated by public safety concerns, and those who say the human and financial burden of imprisoning so many of our citizens is intolerable.
- Topic:
- Crime, Human Rights, Law, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- United States
343. Investment incentives and the global competition for capital
- Author:
- Kenneth P. Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Investment incentives (subsidies designed to affect the location of investment) are a pervasive feature of global competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). They are used by the vast majority of countries, at multiple levels of government, in a broad range of industries. They take a variety of forms, including tax holidays, grants and free land. Politicians, at least in the United States, may have good electoral incentives to use them.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
344. U.S. European Command and NATO'S Strategic Concept: Post-Afghanistan and Beyond
- Author:
- Harlan Ullman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Regardless of how the conflict in Afghanistan (along with NATO's role, presence, and draw down) is resolved, one consequence will be to increase the importance of U.S. European Command (EUCOM) both in Europe and for the entire transatlantic community. Whether Operation Enduring Freedom and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) produce a stunning victory in which Afghanistan emerges as a stable state under the rule of law with a viable government or a rocky withdrawal in the midst of continuing violence with no clear solution in sight, NATO nations will have long tired of that war. Fortunately, the Lisbon Summit with a 2014 end date has eased domestic political pressures over Afghanistan. However, that relief is by no means permanent.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Europe
345. Iran Sanctions: Preferable to War but No Silver Bullet
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The broadest and toughest sanctions regime imposed on any country except Libya has not convinced Iran's leaders to abandon a program that appears aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Instead of seeking even more crippling economic penalties—such as an oil embargo—that would fracture the international consensus on Iran, the United States should tighten implementation of measures already in force and enact more sanctions linked to human rights, which have a wide constituency in Europe and demonstrate to the Iranian people that international concerns extend beyond nuclear weapons. The U.S. should also work with its diplomatic partners to craft new proposals that would couple acceptance of limited uranium enrichment with rigorous international monitoring, and encourage China, Iran's major trading partner, to use its leverage in support of nonproliferation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Iran
346. The Second Wave of Wireless Communications: A Game Changer for Global Development?
- Author:
- Banning Garrett and Patrick Degategno
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The world is about to experience the emergence of a second wave of wireless technology. It will be a "disruptive technology" globally and could contribute to accelerating the socioeconomic development trajectories of the world's poorest countries, according to a presentation made by Jeffrey Reed of Virginia Tech and James Neel of Cognitive Radio Technologies during a workshop entitled "The Second Wave of Wireless Communication - A New Wave of Disruptive Technology."
- Topic:
- Development, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- United States
347. US Declaratory Policy and Striking Back in Cyber Conflict
- Author:
- Jason Healey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- If you pull a knife on a gunslinger, don't be surprised if you get shot. This is one of the messages of the president's International Strategy for Cyberspace. Some media outlets have taken to extreme headlines, such as OBAMA RESERVES RIGHT TO NUKE HACKERS, or HACK US AND WE'LL BOMB YOU. These headlines, although perhaps intended as hyperbole, highlight the routine misunderstandings that take place when applying national security concepts to the technical domain of cyberspace. This issue brief will analyze the relevant part of the Strategy, especially focusing on whether, and how, the United States might respond to cyber attacks, and under what circumstances, if any, such responses would be nuclear.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
348. Primary Energy and Transportation Fuels and the Energy and Water Nexus: Ten Challenges
- Author:
- Blythe Lyons
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A substantive dialogue has emerged in the United States under the rubric of "the energy and water nexus," representing the deepening understanding of the circular relationship between water and energy. Both are essential building blocks of US economic and physical security, and interface with efforts to improve health and prosperity. On a national level, the criticality of this relationship to economic and public prosperity is often ignored, as energy and water impacts are largely specific to a watershed or a local surface water source. The United States today needs new policies and significant infrastructure investment in order to meet the increasing demand for water and energy, while dealing with the constraints of growing water scarcity and potential threats to water quality.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Water, and Biofuels
- Political Geography:
- United States
349. US Lessons for the Eurozone: Restoring Confidence through Transparency
- Author:
- Julie Chon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- When it comes to resolving financial crises, size matters, but so does transparency. In both the US and European crises, the drive for size—firing off enough public funds to plug the hole in the financial system—has proven to be self-defeating as markets raise ever higher, unrealistic, and inappropriate expectations for government policy. This strategy addresses some of the economics and none of the politics of crisis management. The race to meet the size test distracts policymakers from addressing the real impediment to restoring investor and public confidence: the inherent uncertainty and lack of transparency associated with extraordinary government actions in times of crisis. The absence of transparent decision-making inflicts a costly blow to the credibility of policymakers because markets and citizens cannot see or believe what leaders are doing to stabilize the financial system.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
350. Naval Future: International Preponderance Through Naval Partnership
- Author:
- Martin Murphy and Lee Willett
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In 2005 US Navy ship numbers fell lower than at any point since 1916 and little has changed since then. The Royal Navy now has fewer ships and sailors than Nelson had at Trafalgar. It is of course true that counting hulls is no longer a reliable way of assessing naval power yet numbers matter.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Cooperation, International Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States
351. Traditional Dispute Resolution and Afghanistan's Women
- Author:
- Sylvana Q. Sinha
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- At least 80% of all disputes in Afghanistan are resolved through traditional dispute resolution (TDR) mechanisms, principally community councils called shuras or jirgas. TDR is therefore impossible to ignore as the primary justice institution in the country. Still, most women's groups in Afghanistan tend to oppose international donor or Afghan government support for TDR because they generally exclude women from participation and are known to issue decisions that violate women's rights. In the spring of 2011, the U.S. Institute of Peace in Kabul hosted meetings to examine the broader question of how women can gain greater access to justice. The outcome of the conversations was a more nuanced view of TDR and women in Afghanistan and a recognition that creative engagement rather than condemnation is a more productive approach to resolving deficiencies in women's rights in TDR venues.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
352. Peace and Development Efforts in Afghanistan: A Lost Decade
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- When international intervention put an end to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in late 2001 thousands of Afghans went out to the streets to celebrate a new beginning. After 20 years of bloody civil wars in the country, many had hoped that a new era of stability and prosperity was about to begin. The devastating terrorist attacks in the U.S., which brought the international coalition to Afghanistan, was seen as a guarantee that the West would not abandon the country before it was put back in order. Afghanistan could have been a model of post-conflict reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
353. How Terrorist Leaders End: Implications for the Future of the Struggle with al-Qaeda
- Author:
- Kacper Rękawek
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 2 May 2011, U.S. special forces killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, during a raid in the Pakistani town of Abbottabad. From 1988 onwards he led the first truly transnational, if not global, terrorist organisation aimed at establishing and leading a worldwide coalition of likeminded radicals in their quest for an Islamic Caliphate. The elimination of bin Laden is bound to seriously weaken this atomised terrorist outfit, which relies on the ingenuity of its senior operatives to plan and prepare sporadic, but designed to prove spectacular, terrorist attacks in different parts of the globe.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Arabia
354. Retooling U.S. Policy For Peace In Colombia
- Author:
- Milburn Line
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace Justice, University of San Diego
- Abstract:
- It is time to reconsider U.S. policy in Colombia, including adding a peace agenda to our strategy. Following problematic and inconclusive results of more than a decade of support known as Plan Colombia, which is largely directed to the Colombian military, the Obama administration should retool U.S. policy. Adding support for a peace process offers specific policy benefits , including: protecting civilian populations by reducing violations of human rights and humanitarian law; strengthening democratic practice and creating consensus on a post-conflict Colombia; improving relations between Colombia and its neighbors; creating clearer policy channels for other U.S. priorities, including free trade and efforts to control the illicit narcotics trade; and renewing respect for American leadership in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Cold War, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, and Latin America
355. Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War
- Author:
- Annie Tracy Samuel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This policy brief seeks to contribute to and inform the debate concerning a possible attack by the United States and/or Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. The presumed aim of such an attack would be to weaken the Islamic Republic, particularly by hindering its ability to build a nuclear weapon. However, the history of the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980 calls into question the contention that an attack will weaken the regime in Tehran. This policy brief examines Iran's reactions to the Iraqi invasion in order to shed light on Iran's possible reactions to a U.S. or Israeli attack. It will assess how the Iranian people responded to the invasion and its effects on Iranian politics and the position of the new regime. It will also explore the nature of the policies adopted by the Islamic Republic in waging the Iran-Iraq War that carried on for eight years after the Iraqi invasion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
356. The Exaggerated Threat of American Muslim "Homegrown" Terrorism
- Author:
- Risa Brooks
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In recent years, public officials in the United States and terrorism analysts here and abroad have warned of an increasing threat of Muslim homegrown terrorist attacks. The terrorist attacks in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005 perpetrated by European homegrown terrorists have contributed to these concerns, as has the surge in terrorist-related arrests in the United States in 2009 and 2010. Among these are the high-profile arrests of Maj. Nidal Hasan, who engaged Securityin a deadly shooting spree at Fort Hood, Texas, in November 2009, and Faisal Shahzad, who attempted to bomb Times Square in May 2010. A closer look at the evidence, however, reveals that the threat of American Muslims engaging in lethal attacks in the United States has been frequently overstated.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Islam, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and London
357. Transforming U.S. Energy Innovation
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn, Charles Jones, Venkatesh Narayanamurti, Ruud Kempener, Laura Diaz Anadon, Gabriel Chan, Melissa Chan, Audrey Lee, and Nathaniel Logar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The United States needs a revolution in energy technology innovation to meet the profound economic, environmental, and national security challenges that energy poses in the 21st century. If the U.S. government does not act now to improve the conditions for innovation in energy, even in times of budget stringency, it risks losing leadership in one of the key global industries of the future, and the world risks being unable to safely mitigate climate change and to reduce vulnerability to disruptions and conflicts—both domestic and international. Waiting is not an option.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Climate Change, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
358. Social Security: The House that Roosevelt Built
- Author:
- Pamela J. Perun and Patricia E. Dilley
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Critics of the Social Security program are fond of disparaging it as a "Ponzi" scheme or as a redistributive transfer of income from the young to the old. Others go even further, labeling the Social Security trust fund as a fiction or claiming the program is bankrupt. Some also suggest that the government bonds held in the trust fund are mere IOUs. Still others say that the program's legal basis is ephemeral, subject to the whims of Congress.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
359. Practicing progressive pragmatism: Charting Barack Obama's course for U.S. foreign policy
- Author:
- Charly Salonius-Pasternak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama's view and handling of foreign policy challenges can be described as pragmatically progressive. His foreign policy blends a realist mindset and pragmatic approach with liberal and, at times, idealistic and far-reaching goals. Obama's foreign policy decision-making process is deliberate. This is not always compatible with the expectations of the modern political and media environment. Two years into his presidency, Obama has engaged with the five major national security issues he outlined as a candidate, meeting initial success in four of them. When faced with unexpected events largely beyond his control, Obama seems not to make snap decisions based on a particular ideology, preferring to take the time to see how events unfold. When faced with crises that build up slowly or were previously identified in scenarios, Obama's administration has responded robustly and deliberately.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States
360. Future Perspectives of U.S.-Czech Relations
- Author:
- Ondřej Ditrych and Nik Hynek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations Prague
- Abstract:
- In the area of security, the Czech Republic and the U.S. should build closer cooperation around President Obama's Prague Agenda, NATO Ballistic Missile Defence project and in the field of post-conflict reconstruction while working together to mitigate obstacles to constructive NATO-EU relations. In economic relations, they should enhance cooperation taking full advantage of the Strategic Dialogue framework both in terms of discussing global and transatlantic trade issues, and in boosting bilateral commerce. Regarding values, they should cooperate more on democratic transition in Eastern Europe, including through the framework of Eastern Partnership in which the U.S. should become involved.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
361. Creating New Facts on the Ground
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Although meaningful cooperation in the region surrounding Afghanistan is of vital importance, it has been elusive because Afghanistan\'s key neighbors have significantly divergent aims. Engineering a successful regional solution would require the United States to fundamentally transform either these actors\' objectives or their dominant strategies. Achieving the latter may prove more feasible, most crucially vis-à-vis Pakistan. The region\'s history of discord is mainly rooted in the troubled relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Although Pakistan\'s involvement in Afghanistan is colored by its rivalry with India, its relations with Afghanistan are a geopolitical challenge independent of India because of its fears of disorder along its western borders, the unwelcome idea of “Pashtunistan,” and a related long-standing border dispute. Pakistan\'s reaction to these problems has only exacerbated them. As Islamabad, by supporting the Taliban insurgency, has sought to exercise preponderant, if not overweening, influence over Kabul\'s strategic choices, it has earned Kabul\'s distrust, deepened the Kabul–New Delhi partnership, and increased the risk to its relations with Washington—not to mention threatening the lives of U.S. and other coalition forces operating in Afghanistan. Despite widespread support in Afghanistan for ending the war through a negotiated settlement if possible, the Afghan Taliban leadership is unlikely to consider reconciliation unless it is faced with the prospect of continued losses of the kind sustained as a result of coalition military operations in 2010. A regional solution is similarly unlikely as long as Afghanistan and its neighbors, including India, perceive Islamabad as bent on holding Kabul in a choking embrace. Solving these problems lies beyond the capability of American diplomacy, and right now even of the promised diplomatic surge. The best hope for progress lies in continuing military action to alter the realities on the ground— thereby inducing the Taliban to consider reconciliation, while simultaneously neutralizing the Pakistani strategy that is currently preventing a regional solution. To increase the probability of military success, however, President Obama will need to forgo the politically calculated drawdown of combat troops this summer and instead accept the advice of his field commanders to maintain the largest possible contingent necessary for the coming campaign in eastern Afghanistan. Hard and unpalatable as it might be for the president, this course alone offers a solution that will protect the recent gains in Afghanistan and advance American interests over the long term.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, America, and Washington
362. Next Steps for Pakistan Strategy
- Author:
- Daniel Markey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- U.S.-Pakistani relations are in crisis. For Washington, Osam a bin Laden's safe haven in Abbottabad raises questions about Pakistan's complicity and/or incompetence. For Islamabad, bin Laden's killing shows its vulnerability to U.S. operations on its own soil .
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and Washington
363. Crisis in the Congo: CPA Contingency Planning
- Author:
- Joshua Marks
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) led by President Joseph Kabila faces the prospect of collapse. Popular disaffection has grown as a consequence of endemic corruption and a failure to provide broad and sustained economic growth. The possibility of widespread violence around national elections scheduled for November 2011 as well as the emergence of antigovernment movements in the Kivus, Bas Congo, Katanga, or Equateur provinces could precipitate a major political and humanitarian crisis with destabilizing consequences for the region. Having provided billions in foreign assistance and UN peacekeeping support to the DRC and eager to avoid another violent catastrophe in central Africa, the United States faces a looming foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
364. Resurrecting Retrenchment: The Grand Strategic Consequences of U.S. Decline
- Author:
- Paul MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Many policymakers and pundits contend that U.S. relative power is declining and that this decline will have negative consequences for international politics. They justify this pessimism on the belief that great powers have few options for dealing with acute relative decline. Critics say that retrenchment, a policy of retracting grand strategic commitments in response to a decline in relative power, is a contemptible policy that demoralizes allies and emboldens potential adversaries. Furthermore, domestic interest groups and lobbies look like immovable obstacles with regard to policies designed to harmonize ends with means.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
365. The EU's Response to the Financial Crisis: A mid-term review
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Two years after the London G-20, CEPS Chief Executive Karel Lannoo finds that the EU is well advanced in delivering on the commitments made for the 2013 target date. Important steps have been taken on the institutional side, and regulatory changes are moving ahead. On some issues, in fact, such as remuneration, the EU has made even greater headway than the US. But certain key sensitive matters remain, such as bank resolution or structural changes.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and London
366. Beyond Aid: Migration as a Tool for Disaster Recovery
- Author:
- Michael Clemens and Kaci Farrell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes can devastate people's lives and a country's economy, particularly in the developing world. More than 200,000 people perished when a catastrophic earthquake struck Haiti in January 2010, and Americans responded with an outpouring of private and public assistance. Those relief efforts, as they nearly always do, focused primarily on delivering aid. The United States barely used another tool for disaster relief: migration policy. This policy brief explores the various legal channels through which the U.S. government could, after future overseas disasters, leverage the power of migration to help limited numbers of people. We describe what could have been done for Haiti, but the lessons apply to future scenarios.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States
367. Revitalizing the Export-Import Bank
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Meera Fickling, and Woan Foong Wong
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States has experienced persistent trade deficits for decades, and thoughtful observers have concluded that deficits cannot be sustained at levels much exceeding 4 percent of GDP annually. There are only two ways to decrease the trade deficit: reduce imports or increase exports. For global economic health, increased exports are a far better proposition.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
368. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2011
- Author:
- William R. Cline and John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This policy brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data, which for exchange rates are the average rates of April 2011, and for the IMF's balance of payments forecasts, those published in the April 2011 issue of World Economic Outlook (WEO; see IMF 2011a). It is the central study in what has now become a regular annual cycle, in which we draw out what we believe to be the implications of the IMF's forecasts for the pattern that exchange rates need to take if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. This past year we also published an interim policy brief (Cline and Williamson 2010b) in which we updated our calculations to the average exchange rates of October 2010, as well as commented on Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's description of international monetary events as constituting "currency wars." As in the previous year, however, the November 2010 policy brief updated our estimates only for intervening changes in market exchange rates. We did not make use of the IMF's revised autumn WEO forecasts to update our estimates of FEERs; on the contrary, we assumed the FEERs estimated in May 2010 were correct. In contrast, this policy brief presents totally new estimates of FEERs.
- Topic:
- Economics and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
369. Corporate Tax Reform for a New Century
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Woan Foong Wong
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama stressed four ingredients of American prosperity: faster innovation, better education, less deficit, and more jobs. As the president recognized in his address, the US free enterprise system drives the private sector to innovate, invest, and create jobs. This policy brief concentrates on how reforming the corporate tax system can strengthen the private sector, thereby spurring both innovation and job.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
370. The role of multinationals in sparking industrialization: From "infant industry protection" to "FDI-led industrial take-off"
- Author:
- Terutomo Ozawa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Although not yet fully conceptualized as a new catch-up model in mainstream development economics, the infant industry argument (protectionism designed to replace imports with domestic substitutes) is giving way to a foreign direct investment (FDI)-led model of industrialization.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and China
371. The coming harmonization of climate change policy and international investment law
- Author:
- Daniel M. Firger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Developments in climate change policy and international investment law may be ushering in a new era characterized by profound harmonization between the two regimes. Although policy instruments such as the Kyoto Protocol's “Clean Development Mechanism” (CDM) have been in existence for years, it is only relatively recently that the international community has turned to low-carbon foreign direct investment (FDI) and away from command-and-control regulation as the preferred means by which to achieve future greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Meanwhile, states have begun to renegotiate international investment agreements (IIAs) or sign new treaties to take into account policy goals, including climate change mitigation, that extend beyond the regime's traditional preoccupation with investor protection. Though still somewhat tentative, emerging trends in both arenas are thus showing unmistakable signs of convergence.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
372. Is the party-appointed arbitrator a "pernicious institution"? A reply to Professor Hans Smit
- Author:
- Giorgio Sacerdoti
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Some readers of the Columbia FDI Perspective No. 33 of December 14, 2010 may have been surprised to read Hans Smit's contribution against party-appointed arbitrators. The opening of his Perspective could not be expressed in more sweeping terms: "In my judgment, party-appointed arbitrators should be banned unless their role as advocates for the party that appointed them is fully disclosed and accepted. Until this is done, arbitration can never meet its aspiration of providing dispassionate adjudication..."
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
373. Assertive Brazil: An emerging power and its implications
- Author:
- Mikael Wigell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Brazil has risen to international prominence over the last decade. Now the 7th largest economy in the world, the country has started acting with greater confidence and authority on the international stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Emerging Markets, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Brazil
374. Achieving Greater Disclosure in the Oil Gas Industry
- Author:
- Craig Fagan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Transparency International
- Abstract:
- Globally, petroleum and its derivatives account for 15 per cent of the world's trade. Oil and gas production serves to meet nearly 60 percent of the energy consumed worldwide. Demands on the industry are only rising as expanding economies such as China and India require more energy to grow.
- Topic:
- Security, Industrial Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Nations
375. Ensuring Corporate Transparency to Mitigate Climate Change
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Transparency International
- Abstract:
- Mitigation to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases will require substantial shifts in energy policy, consumer habits and technology development. As a major contributor of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a driver of technological change, corporations will be crucial in shaping the solutions to many of these challenges.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
376. Optimism and Obstacles in India-Pakistan Peace Talks
- Author:
- Stephanie Flamenbaum and Megan Neville
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Following March 2011's “cricket diplomacy,” there is reason to be optimistic about progress on South Asian normalization as India and Pakistan have resumed bilateral dialogues. Improved relations are critical to U.S. interests in South Asia with respect to the stabilization of Afghanistan, reduction in Pakistan-based militant threats, and alleviation of regional nuclear tensions. Terrorism and the Kashmir issue remain the most toxic points of divergence which could derail progress as in past bilateral talks. Bilateral economic agreements should be pursued in order to enable commercial progress to facilitate political reconciliation. With the looming drawdown of international forces from Afghanistan in 2014, and the subsequent shift in the regional power balance, it is imperative that the international community utilize its leverage to ensure that Pakistan-India talks progress.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India
377. Pakistan, the United States and the End Game in Afghanistan: Perceptions of Pakistan's Foreign Policy Elite
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf, Huma Yusuf, and Salman Zaidi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This brief summarizes the perceptions of Pakistani foreign policy elite about Pakistan's strategy and interests in Afghanistan, its view of the impending “end game”, and the implications of its policies towards Afghanistan for the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. These perceptions were captured as part of a project, co-convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and Jinnah Institute (JI) in Pakistan, aimed at better understanding Pakistan's outlook towards the evolving situation in Afghanistan. A full report carrying detailed findings will be launched in August 2011 in Pakistan. Pakistani foreign policy elite perceive their country to be seeking: (i) a degree of stability in Afghanistan; (ii) an inclusive government in Kabul; and (iii) to limit Indian presence in Afghanistan to development activities. They perceive America's Afghanistan strategy to date to be largely inconsistent with Pakistan's interests. Pakistan insists on an immediate, yet patient effort at inclusive reconciliation involving all major Afghan stakeholders, including the main Afghan Taliban factions. Other issues that Pakistan's policy elite view as impediments to a peaceful Afghanistan settlement include: questionable viability of a regional framework; lack of clarity on Taliban's willingness to negotiate; the unstable political and economic situation in Afghanistan; and concerns about Afghan National Security Forces adding to instability in the future. Project participants felt that greater clarity in U.S. and Pakistani policies is critical to avoid failure in Afghanistan, to convince the Taliban of the validity of a power-sharing agreement, and to urge regional actors to play a more constructive role.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
378. Afghan Perspectives on Achieving Durable Peace
- Author:
- Hamish Nixon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghans across different groups see the United States as a key party to the conflict whose direct participation in a peace process is crucial to its success, and therefore question the effectiveness of U.S. emphasis on an “Afghan-led” reconciliation strategy. The U.S. must engage directly in negotiating a settlement because of its control over the issue of withdrawal of NATO forces. The Taliban demand for full withdrawal prior to talks appears to be an opening position. A challenge will be linking a structure for drawdown to necessary steps by insurgents to allow a cessation of violence and prevent Afghanistan's use for terrorism. A settlement process will entail discussion of the composition and future of the Afghan National Security Forces, and the current “transition” strategy of a large army and expanding local defence initiatives will almost certainly need re-examining during such a process. The conflict is not only a struggle for power and resources; it is also a legitimacy crisis stemming from a system of power and patronage that feeds conflict. From this perspective, a settlement should address the concentration of powers in the presidency through incremental reform to appointments, elections, or farther-reaching changes to the structure of government over time. There is a tension between reform and using political appointments to accommodate power-sharing demands. A durable settlement will need to involve political and social agreements among Afghans taking into account the views of a range of stakeholders. To manage this tension, the intra-Afghan peace process should be oriented toward broad inclusion of non-combatants while balancing the secrecy required to make progress.
- Topic:
- NATO, Government, and National Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
379. The United States in Iraq: Options for 2012
- Author:
- Sean Kane and William Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- With U.S. military forces scheduled to depart Iraq in December of this year, the State Department and other civilian agencies are being asked to assume a scale of operational and programmatic responsibilities far beyond any other embassy in recent memory. The capacity of the U.S. civilian agencies to assume these responsibilities does not now fully exist. Notably, securing and moving U.S. civilians will require more than 5,000 security contractors. A limited U.S. military contingent post-2011 may well be more cost-effective than private security guards and could also relieve State and other civilian agencies of logistical and security responsibilities. This would enable them to focus on their comparative advantages: diplomacy and development assistance. Planning for the post-2011 U.S. mission in Iraq, however, remains hampered by uncertainty as to whether the Iraqi government will request an extension of the American military presence in the country. A small follow-on U.S. military force would appear to safeguard Iraqi stability and make the achievement of U.S. strategic objectives in Iraq more likely, but cannot be counted on. Should such a request not be received from the Iraqi government, the U.S. may need to reduce the planned scale and scope of its operations and goals in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
380. The world economic crisis as a changed circumstance
- Author:
- Hermann Ferré and Kabir Duggal
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- In September 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers sent financial markets in the United States into a spin. Credit markets froze as banks began to mistrust counterparties, not knowing the extent of toxic assets in loan portfolios that could lead to another major bank collapse. The crisis quickly spread around the world. Governments were urged to take drastic measures. Experts discussed the possible nationalization of portions of the U.S. banking industry and other sectors. Other countries also considered measures to save key industries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
381. From the FDI Triad to multiple FDI poles?
- Author:
- Karl P. Sauvant and Persephone Economou
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Twenty years ago, in the inaugural issue of the World Investment Report, the United Nations highlighted a shift in the global pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI) from bipolar, dominated by the United States and the European Community, to tri-polar (the FDI Triad), dominated by the European Community, the United States and Japan.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, United Nations, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
382. Improving Afghan War Strategy
- Author:
- Michael E. O'Hanlon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The year 2010 in Afghanistan had some encouraging signs but on balance it was less positive than had been hoped. In 2011, therefore, it is important to do two things: first, look for further improvements in our strategy; and second, develop a backup plan, should the current approach not yield the kind of progress that is necessary and expected.
- Topic:
- NATO, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
383. Adjusting to China: A Challenge to the U.S. Manufacturing Sector
- Author:
- Martin Neil Baily
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- During an "exit interview" with the Wall Street Journal, departing National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued that history would judge the United States based on how well we adjust to China's emergence as a great power, economically and politically. In the face of China's progress, America's manufacturing sector faces major challenges in becoming and remaining competitive and our choice of national economic policies will affect how well we meet those challenges. It is essential that the U.S. trade deficit not balloon as the economy recovers. There is scope to expand our exports in services and agriculture, but improving the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing is vital.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and America
384. Bleak Outlook for 2011 Conference on Disarmament
- Author:
- Brian Rose
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The 2011 Conference on Disarmament (CD) began contentiously when Ambassador Zamir Akram, Pakistan\'s permanent representative to the United Nations, criticized United States\' support of India\'s membership in export organizations that would allow it to engage in nuclear trade. Pakistan believes such membership would further favor India and accentuate the asymmetry in fissile materials stockpiles of the two states. Strategic and security concerns drive Pakistan\'s commitment to block negotiation of a fissile material cutoff treaty. Progress during the CD seems unlikely if the United States and Pakistan remain entrenched in their respective positions.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, India, and Asia
385. The Muslim Brotherhood: On the Record
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The following sampling of comments by Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt explains the group's position in the current crisis and its attitudes towards the United States, Israel, and the rest of the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt
386. From Caution to Boldness: U.S. Policy toward Egypt
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, U.S. policy has evolved with breathtaking speed. Just last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Mubarak regime was stable, but by Tuesday evening, President Obama was making the remarkable statement that Egypt's transition needs to begin "now." This is not only the most serious foreign policy challenge to this U.S. administration, but also one in a list of unforeseen and improbable challenges. Unlike scenarios involving, for example, a North Korean provocation against the South or even a catastrophic terrorist attack -- for which the United States plans and prepares -- the swift demise of Hosni Mubarak's presidency, along with the virtual disappearance of the ruling National Democratic Party and the potential fall of a regime that has been a pillar of U.S. standing in the Middle East for thirty-five years, is an unimagined challenge.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
387. On the Record
- Author:
- Mohammed ElBaradei
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "For years, the West has bought Mr. Mubarak's demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood lock, stock and barrel, the idea that the only alternative here are these demons called the Muslim Brotherhood who are the equivalent of Al Qaeda's... I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression."
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Vienna
388. Covering and Countering Extremism in Pakistan's Developing Media
- Author:
- Hannah Byam and Christopher Neu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- With a rise in terrorist activity spreading fear through highly publicized attacks, Pakistan's media landscape has increasingly been used as a battleground between those seeking to promote violent conflict and others seeking to manage or deter it. Pakistan's media community has not yet developed an adequate or widely accepted strategy for responding to this context of persistent extremism and conflict. The rapid rise of extremist radio stations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces has paralleled an increase in terrorist attacks, facilitated by affordable access to FM radio, loose government regulation of broadcast media and militant control of pockets in KPK and FATA. Negative media attitudes toward the Pakistan-U.S. relationship often reflect national political differences and market incentives for sensationalist coverage. These attitudes can be transformed through changes in the diplomatic relationship between the countries based on open communication rather than institutional media reform.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Terrorism, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and Asia
389. The Future of U.S. Nuclear Policy: The Case for No First Use
- Author:
- Michael S. Gerson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Despite heightened expectations for significant change in U.S. nuclear policy—especially declaratory policy— the Obama administration's Nuclear Posture Review changes little from the past. The NPR's declaratory policy retains the option for the United States to use nuclear weapons first in a variety of circumstances, including in a first strike against Chinese, North Korean, Russian, and (perhaps) future Iranian nuclear forces. Equally important, the United States can threaten the first use of nuclear weapons to deter and, if necessary, respond, to a variety of nonnuclear contingencies, including large-scale conventional aggression by another nuclear power such as China or Russia and chemical or biological weapons (CBW) attacks from states such as Iran and North Korea.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, and North Korea
390. AB 32 and Climate Change: The National Context of State Policies for a Global Commons Problem
- Author:
- Robert N. Stavins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Why should anyone be interested in the national context of a state policy? In the case of California's Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), the answer flows directly from the very nature of the problem— global climate change, the ultimate global commons problem. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) uniformly mix in the atmosphere. Therefore, any jurisdiction taking action—whether a nation, a state, or a city—will incur the costs of its actions, but the benefits of its actions (reduced risk of climate-change damages) will be distributed globally. Hence, for virtually any jurisdiction, the benefits it reaps from its climate-policy actions will be less than the cost it incurs. This is despite the fact that the global benefits of action may well be greater—possibly much greater—than global costs.
- Topic:
- Climate Change and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
391. Saudi Arabia's Fears for Bahrain
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 16, Bahraini security forces used brute force to clear democracy protestors from Manama's Pearl Square, on orders from a regime seemingly undaunted by international media coverage and the near-instantaneous self-reporting of Twitter-generation demonstrators. Although the relatively small size of the crowds (compared to recent protests in Egypt and Tunisia) facilitated the crackdown, the action is best explained by the regime's long-held mindset regarding dissent. Specifically, the Bahraini ruling elite believe that any political challenge by the island's Shiite majority must be quickly suppressed -- a view backed by the royal family in neighboring Saudi Arabia and violently enforced in Bahrain despite significant Sunni participation in the protests. This Saudi factor, and the looming presence of Iran across the Persian Gulf, elevates the Bahrain crisis to a U.S. policy challenge on par with events in Egypt.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Island, and Tunisia
392. The Challenge of Aid in Pakistan: Is Cash on Delivery Part of the Solution?
- Author:
- Wren Elhai
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- A thorny set of obstacles stands in the way of the United States and other donors as they try to scale up development spending in Pakistan. The sheer scale of the country's population and development challenges requires effective mobilization of local resources and local institutions. Incentives for politicians to push for reform are weak. Monitoring spending is difficult, especially when it is spent through Pakistan's own government. Donors and local stakeholders may disagree about which development projects are most needed. A possible solution to these problems is Cash on Delivery Aid. In COD Aid, funders pay for measured and verified progress against an agreed-upon development outcome. The approach has been most clearly thought out in application to the education sector, but it can be applied whenever a donor and recipient can agree on a clear, measurable metric for assessing progress. This brief examines options for a COD Aid contract in Pakistan's education sector and its potential benefits for improving the relationship between official donors and the government of Pakistan, and for increasing the effectiveness of aid spending in Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Demographics and Development
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and South Asia
393. Fannie, Freddie, and the Subprime Mortgage Market
- Author:
- Mark A. Calabria
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The recent financial crisis was characterized by losses in nearly every type of investment vehicle. Yet no product has attracted as much attention as the subprime mortgage.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
394. Open Doors 2010 Fast Facts
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- New international student enrollment – students enrolling for the first time at a U.S. institution in Fall 2009 – increased 1.3% over the previous year.
- Topic:
- Education, International Organization, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States
395. Evolution, Not Revolution: The US-NZ Security Partnership
- Author:
- David Capie and Robert Ayson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The most visible sign of the new warmth in the United States-New Zealand bilateral relationship was US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to New Zealand in November 2010, which culminated with the signing of the "Wellington Declaration." The 400-word document announced a US-NZ "strategic partnership" built on "practical cooperation" in the South Pacific, and enhanced dialogue including regular foreign minister level and political-military meetings. It also noted a joint commitment to tackle pressing challenges including climate change, nuclear proliferation, and extremism. In addition, there was a commitment to an expansion of US-NZ "commercial and trade relations." Robert Ayson and David Capie discuss the possible future direction of the developing US-NZ relationship.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Australia/Pacific, and New Zealand
396. Dealing with Davis: Inconsistencies in the US-Pakistan Relationship
- Author:
- Huma Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The nine-week standoff between the United States and Pakistan over the fate of Raymond Davis, an American arrested in Pakistan after shooting two men at a traffic stop, ended on March 16 with his sudden release from jail. Davis was freed under Islamic law, which allows a murderer to receive pardon from the family of his victims on payment of compensation, or “blood money” Religious parties protested the decision, stating that the law had been applied incorrectly to satisfy US demands for Davis' release. Still, media and analysts inside and outside Pakistan have termed the development a “win” for the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
397. A Step Too Far: Why CPGS Is The Wrong Answer to China's Anti-Access Challenge
- Author:
- Iskander Rehman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In March 1996, the waters of the Taiwan Strait were roiled by Chinese live missile firings and massive military exercises. Washington answered Beijing's blunt demonstration of coercive military diplomacy by promptly dispatching two aircraft carriers to the scene.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, and Taiwan
398. Australia and Japan: Allies in Partnership
- Author:
- Malcolm Cook and Thomas S. Wilkins
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The post-Cold War era in the Asia-Pacific has not witnessed the triumph of low over high politics. Rather, it has seen the simultaneous intensification of both economic integration and security cooperation and competition. This is true both at the level of the region, and for China and most other countries in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Australia
399. Cambodia's Bumpy Development Road: Implications for US Interests
- Author:
- Donald Jameson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Cambodia in late 2010, she told senior Cambodian government officials "this does not look like the country I have been reading about in the press." Most first-time visitors to Phnom Penh would likely react similarly. The city hosts a vibrant society, with traffic-clogged streets, a proliferation of stylish restaurants and boutiques, and buildings under construction everywhere, many of them high-rise apartments and office blocks. If the visitor were to venture outside the capital, large-scale investment in infrastructure, especially roads and bridges, with construction underway on additional projects are what greet the eye. In addition, there are extensive land clearing projects underway for new plantations to grow rubber, palm oil, cashews and other tropical products, as well as new industrial sites springing up along main transportation arteries. In short, Cambodia is clearly a country on the move economically.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
400. What Can the United States Learn from Russia's Relations with ASEAN Countries?
- Author:
- Stephen Blank
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Neither the current US administration nor US academics recognize Russia as a major Asian power. Although Russia faces many obstacles to becoming a credible Asian actor, Moscow is making resolute diplomatic overtures to secure its Asian standing. Stephen Blank argues that these activities merit US attention because they enhance understanding of Asian international relations and offset the pronounced ethnocentrism of so much American writing on the subject.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Asia, and Moscow