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32. How to Make Fuel Subsidy Reform Succeed
- Author:
- Isobel Coleman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Fossil fuel subsidies are a global scourge. They distort markets, strain government budgets, encourage overconsumption, foster corruption, and harm the environment while doing little to remedy inequality or stimulate development. Yet despite compelling arguments for reform, fossil fuel subsidies remain deeply entrenched. Citizens have yet to be convinced that fuel subsidies can and should be replaced with more efficient poverty alleviation programs. As a result, governments refrain from phasing out fuel subsidies for fear of triggering a public backlash, and even civil unrest. To bolster the prospects for subsidy reform, the United States should support the creation of a new public-private partnership within the World Bank, the Global Subsidy Elimination Campaign (GSEC), to work with governments to execute country-specific communication programs that would build the case for fossil fuel subsidy reform among citizens. The GSEC would start with pilot programs in select countries, and on the basis of these efforts, expand its work to other countries interested in fuel subsidy reform. If the GSEC help s generate just a 5 percent reduction in the more than half a trillion dollars that governments now spend on fossil fuel subsidies, it would free up billions of dollars for more effective anti-poverty initiatives.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States
33. The Global Arctic: The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the European Union
- Author:
- Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- With exciting economic opportunities and serious environmental challenges, the Arctic is transforming and re-emerging as a geopolitically important region. Major global players within and without the Arctic are paying greater attention to the region. While Russia is a traditional Arctic state with significant economic and security interests in the region, China, the US and the EU have also expressed their Arctic interests more explicitly. They are keen to tap into the economic potential and have a say in the way the region becomes accessed, exploited and governed. As a result, the Arctic is no longer a spatially or administratively confined region, but is instead taking its new form in the midst of contemporary global politics. The globalization and economization of the Arctic will most likely downplay environmentalism and reduce the relative influence of the indigenous people and small Arctic states in Arctic affairs. Arctic governance is also likely to turn more complex and complicated as the economic and political stakes are raised.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, and Europe
34. US wars have little economic impact on asset prices
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Last week we argued that a US attack on Syria would have little impact on asset prices. Here we expand this analysis to consider the effect on asset prices of other recent US attacks on a foreign power. Subject to the qualifications set out below, we find that the impact of US warfare over the past twenty years has been minimal. Excluding the first Gulf War , it is almost non-existent.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Syria
35. The equity market will climb a wall of worry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The equity market has had a tough few months due to a combination of concerns, including fears that a US-led attack on Syria might lead to a wider Middle East conflict and threaten oil supplies. Of greater concern for equities are worries that a turn in the US monetary policy cycle could eventually kill off the US recovery. However with valuation not looking like a barrier to further gains, this four-and-a-half year equity bull market will in all likelihood climb the wall of worry and set another new high before the year is out.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
36. Attack on Syria: the danger is in escalation
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- It is now looking all but certain that the United States will launch some form of attack on Syria. What is unclear is the severity and duration of the attack. Leaving aside the political ramifications, the immediate economic effects are likely to be limited (and are mostly already factored in). Opposing impacts on inflation and activity means that changes to central bank policy could be postponed. A prolonged campaign could have wider ramifications, not least if there is a risk of a geographical widening of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
37. US recovery on track
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent US data have been uneven. An improving manufacturing ISM survey was offset by non-manufacturing data being worse than expected. Last week a strong consumer credit number was balanced by weaker small business confidence. The US economy almost certainly went through a soft patch in Q2. However, on balance the recovery–unexciting as it has been–remains on track, with some possible further mileage to be had from equities. This is consistent with the recent dovish statement by Fed Chairman Bernanke, suggesting that the tapering of quantitative easing is still some way off.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
38. Our bond market, your problem?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Comments from the US Federal Reserve aimed at signalling that monetary policy cannot stay at historically low levels indefinitely have caused bond yields and credit spreads to rise both in the US and abroad. Higher borrowing rates are particularly inappropriate for the Eurozone which, unlike the US, is still struggling to emerge from recession. This tightening of financial conditions will place pressure on the ECB to act. Although surveys show that investors' bearishness on US government bonds is at an extreme level, suggesting that in the coming weeks bond yields are more likely to fall than rise, the longer-term trend in bond yields is now upwards. But we do not expect the rise in yields over the next two or three years to kill off the US recovery. Consequently, we believe that the US equity market is still on an upward uptrend, albeit one that will experience regular spikes in volatility as the Fed gradually moves away from its ultra-loose policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
39. The case for rising US corporate capex
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Shifts in financial balances between sectors of the economy are worth watching because they can signal broader cyclical changes. The US household financial balance turned negative in Q1. But that was mainly due to distortions in income related to tax increases in 2013. Taking the average of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, households still have a positive balance. More importantly, the conditions are in place for a rise in capital expenditure (capex) by the corporate sector. This would allow both household and public sector savings to increase. It would also mean an upside risk to our main scenario for the US economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
40. Iceland and Europe: Drifting further apart?
- Author:
- Baldur Thorhallsso and Alyson J. K. Bailes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 at the height of the economic crisis. Four years later, a new government has put the application on hold: the majority of Icelanders are opposed to entry, but want to continue the accession process and put the results to a vote. Iceland's longer-standing problems with European integration stem from the issue of sovereignty in general, and maintaining control over fisheries and agriculture in particular. Since 2009, anti-European feelings have been stoked by the 'Icesave' dispute, while the prospective benefits of entry (including use of the euro) have been tarnished by witnessing the fate of other small states during the euro crisis. The new government proposes remaining a member of the EEA and developing relations with other world powers. But the US commitment to Iceland has weakened over the years, and 'rising' powers like China are unable, as yet, to solve the country's core problems. In terms of both its security and its standing within the global economy, Iceland is becoming more rather than less dependent on Europe over time. The question raised by the latest political turn is whether it will have to maintain that relationship from a distance, with limited control and with no guaranteed goodwill.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe