Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: United States / Publication Year: within 10 Years / Journal:

1. Health and Health Care for Women of Reproductive Age: How the United States Compares with Other High-Income Countries

Author:: Munira Z. Gunja, Shanoor Seervai, Laurie Zephyrin, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: The maternal mortality crisis in the United States has been well documented: U.S. women have the highest rate of maternal deaths among high-income countries, while Black women are nearly three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related complications than white women are.1 But maternal deaths and complications may be a bellwether for the U.S.’s wider failures with respect to women’s health and health care. Using data from the Commonwealth Fund’s 2020 International Health Policy Survey and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), this brief compares selected measures of health care access and outcomes for women of reproductive age (18 to 49) in 11 high-income countries. After identifying gaps in U.S. health system performance for women in this age group, we explore some of the policies other nations have put in place to ensure more equitable access and better health outcomes. We also suggest policy options for the United States.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Reproductive Rights, Reproductive Health, and Abortion
Political Geography:: United States

2. AUKUS Security Pact: Setting the Rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The announcement of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known by the acronym AUKUS, intended to enhance cooperation between the three countries in the Indo- Pacific region in defense and security, has sent shockwaves throughout the world, especially the UK for the Royal Navy of Australia. The nuclear fueled submarines will be armed by conventional weapons, the number of acquired vessels will be at least eight, and as a typically Australian request, part of the vessels will be constructed in Australia’s naval shipyards. So far, the US, the UK, Russia, China, France in China and Europe. The key element of the AUKUS pact, signed on 15th September 2021, is the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the US and and India are the only six countries that have commissioned nuclear-powered submarines. Furthermore, before signing the AUKUS pact, the UK was the only country in the world with which the US was sharing the nuclear propulsion technology, under the Mutual Defense Agreement signed back in 1958. The supply of Australia with British and American nuclear-powered attack submarines, as the most delicate part of the AUKUS pact, attracted by far the most of media attention and provoked China’s aggressive reaction. Even more, the three nations security pact, which is in principal intended to bring “enhanced trilateral security partnership for the 21st century”, has made Beijing particularly worried as China fears that this triple alliance is pointed directly against it. The three countries intend to step up their cooperation in the security and defense sector, and apart from cooperation in industrial production of new military equipment, AUKUS also envisages a broad cooperation in the fields where the three countries feel particularly threatened by China’s staggering growth, and they include cyber security, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Alliance, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: United States, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, and Indo-Pacific

3. Digital Futures for Europe

Author:: Meelis Kitsing
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: There isn’t one model for success in the digital future; there are many. Europe is now debating what policies that could help to power entrepreneurship and growth in Europe’s economy, and some are arguing that Europe should make itself technologically sovereign – independent from the big platforms from the US. This is not the right approach – partly because there cannot be just one model applied in Europe if it is to become more successful in technology and competitiveness. This briefing paper argues that is far more important for Europe to create a better environment for companies to experiment and discover with new business models, and to learn from the past platform success while they do so. That requires a much greater space for entrepreneurship and that the EU and national governments stay away from excessive regulations that strain new business growth. Europe can be a powerful region that shapes rules and standards globally – “the Brussels effect”. But that isn’t the future for Europe if it ensnares entrepreneurs in red tape – “the Brussels defect”.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Digital Economy, Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

4. Nuclear Challenges for the New U.S. Presidential Administration: The First 100 Days and Beyond

Author:: Kelsey Davenport, Daryl G. Kimball, and Kingston Reif
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: Upon taking office, the new presidential administration of Joseph Biden will confront a dizzying array of major challenges, not the least of which are related to the risks posed by the world’s most dangerous weapons. Tensions between the world’s nuclear-armed states are rising; the risk of nuclear use is growing; billions of dollars are being spent to replace and upgrade nuclear weapons; and key agreements that have kept nuclear competition in check are gone or are in serious jeopardy. The situation has been complicated by the neglect and poor policy choices of President Donald Trump and his administration. Over the past four years the Trump administration made nearly every nuclear policy challenge facing the United States worse. Fortunately, Biden has a long and distinguished track record when it comes to dealing with nuclear weapons-related security issues. Unlike his predecessor, Biden possesses a strong personal commitment to effective nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament that dates back to his early days in the Senate and continued through his last days as vice-president under President Barack Obama. In this analysis we have outlined what we believe to be the five most important sets of nuclear weapons policy challenges and decisions that the new Biden administration will need to address in its first 100 days and beyond, along with recommendations for effectively dealing with each of these policy challenges: Reviving and Advancing the Nuclear Arms Control Enterprise Reducing U.S. Nuclear Weapons Excess Stabilizing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Jump-starting Denuclearization and Peace Diplomacy with North Korea Restoring U.S. Leadership on Multilateral Nonproliferation and Disarmament If pursued, these actions and decisions would make the United States and the world safer from the threats posed by nuclear weapons. These initial steps would also put the administration in a better position to pursue more lasting and far-reaching nuclear risk reduction and elimination initiatives over the next four years.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, Denuclearization, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

5. Toward an Inclusive Security Arrangement in the Persian Gulf

Author:: Trita Parsi
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Abandon dominance. For many of the United States’ security partners, even a dysfunctional Pax Americana is preferable to the compromises that a security architecture would inevitably entail. The preconditions for creating a successful security architecture can emerge only if the United States begins a military withdrawal from the Persian Gulf and credibly signals it no longer seeks to sustain hegemony. • Encourage regional dialogue, but let the region lead. The incoming Biden administration’s hint that it will seek an inclusive security dialogue in the Persian Gulf is a welcome first step toward shifting the burden of security to the regional states themselves. For such an effort to be successful, the United States should play a supporting role while urging regional states to take the lead. • Include other major powers. The regional dialogue should include the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and major Asian powers with a strong interest in stability in the Persian Gulf. Including them can help dilute Washington’s and Beijing’s roles while protecting the region from inter–Asian rivalries in the future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, United Nations, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Military Affairs, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Persian Gulf

6. The Dominance Dilemma: The American Approach to NATO and its Future

Author:: Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Despite the Biden administration’s push to revitalize U.S. alliances, U.S. relations with NATO are due for a reset. The United States should incentivize European members of NATO to take on additional responsibilities for their defense. Encouraging the European allies to take initiative will help the United States focus on its other domestic and international priorities and may facilitate improving relations with Russia. This approach will also prove attractive to European states concerned about the future direction of U.S. foreign policy. Recalibrating the U.S. role in Europe would conform with the United States’ post–World War II efforts to stabilize European security — and stand as the fruit of Washington’s success in this regard.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Global Focus

7. Responsible Statecraft Requires Remaking America’s Foreign Relations Tool Kit

Author:: Gordon Adams
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: To meet today’s foreign policy challenges, the United States needs to end its overreliance on military superiority and intervention and instead put creative and persistent diplomacy in the lead to promote locally owned solutions to national, bilateral, and regional security issues and to address global challenges not amenable to military force. This rebalancing will not succeed if civilian statecraft is dysfunctional and unprepared. More funding and more diplomats will not solve this problem. What is needed is fundamental reform of structures, processes, and personnel practices, particularly at the State Department. These include strategic planning, resource planning, institutional integration, clear authority over security assistance programs, and moving away from nation-building and toward conflict prevention. Far-reaching changes in the way diplomats are recruited, trained, and promoted are also required. Without such changes, there is substantial risk that our diplomatic tools will be ineffective, resulting in even greater militarization of U.S. foreign policy when diplomacy fails.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Grand Strategy, Alliance, and Statecraft
Political Geography:: United States

8. De-Risking the India Relationship: An Action Agenda for the United States

Author:: Sarang Shidore
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: In the wake of a sharp deterioration in U.S.–China and India–China relations, there is an increasing emphasis in U.S. relations with India on military-to-military ties and bloc formation over other forms of relationship-building. Washington is steadily militarizing the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” a four-member security group that is intended to counter Beijing, of which New Delhi is a member. This, combined with India’s stalled economy and the outlook for longer-term post-pandemic weakness, is accentuating a risk-prone asymmetry in U.S.–India relations. There also remain key divergences in the specifics of U.S. and Indian interests, even on the question of countering China. Over-militarized U.S.–India relations could help push Asia closer to a paradigm of military blocs, frontline states, and zero-sum games, while also planting seeds for a nationalist backlash against the United States in South Asia as a whole. The United States should therefore reorient its vital partnership with India according to these four recommendations: Limit the relationship’s increasing militarization and instead emphasize nontraditional areas of security cooperation such as climate change and peacekeeping, which lend themselves to inclusion rather than exclusion. The Quad should be returned to its original political-normative focus; Create conditions favorable to India’s comprehensive development, particularly in the energy, environmental, and supply-chain spaces, as a lower-risk path toward catalyzing a multipolar Asia; Drop demands on India to scale back ties with U.S. adversaries such as Russia and Iran; Resist the temptation to use India as a force-multiplier to pressure smaller South Asian states as to their global alignments.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United States and India

9. The Divide between Economic History and History: From Ideology to Methodology

Author:: Gavin Wright
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: I attended grad school at Yale in the late 1960s, when the New Economic History was on the ascendancy. Although the NEH was mainly in economics, the broader field of economic history clearly included members of both parent disciplines. At Yale, history grad students like Jan de Vries and Fred Carstensen could do an economic history track by taking a few core econ courses. There was also fair amount of common cause with a movement called the New Social History, interested in pursuing quantification to write “history from the bottom up.” Membership and presidents of the Economic History Association were about equally divided between the two disciplines. When I started at Michigan in 1972, there were two card-carrying economic historians in the history department (Sylvia Thrupp and Jacob Price), and similar lineups were not unusual elsewhere. The era of coexistence came to an abrupt end with the publication of Time on the Cross by Fogel and Engerman in 1974. The book was controversial not just because of its claims about slavery in the United States — that slavery was efficient, productive, and not all bad for the slaves — but because these claims were presented as a summation of research by cliometric economic historians over the previous decade or more. Even though some of the most robust critiques came from within economic history — consolidated in Reckoning with Slavery, published in 1976 — many historians felt that any discipline that could generate such an offensive brand of history did not deserve respectful intellectual status. In truth, History was probably going its own way towards the “cultural turn” anyway. To the extent that economic history had something to do with this move, it would have been a reaction to the observation that much of the new work seemed drawn moth-like to the discovery of markets and market processes in history, concluding that “markets worked.” Bill Parker remarked on this tendency in his presidential address to the EHA: “From Old to New to Old in Economic History” (JEH 1971), describing the NEH as “a gigantic test of the hypothesis of economic rationality of a system and of the behavior of individuals within it.” Robert Lucas wrote: “The central lesson of research in economic history is that neoclassical economics applies anytime, anywhere.” This now seems like something of a caricature, but for the NEH roughly through the 1970s, Lucas was largely correct. A case in point that mattered to many historians was the agricultural regime of the postbellum South. Works published in the 1970s by Joseph Reid, Stephen DeCanio and Robert Higgs all concluded that sharecropping was not an exploitive economic form, and that any racial oppression that did occur was rooted in politics rather than markets. Small wonder that historians found little to attract them to this style of research.
Topic:: Economics, Education, History, Slavery, Ideology, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: United States

10. A Policy Matrix for Inclusive Prosperity

Author:: Dani Rodrik and Stefanie Stantcheva
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: One of the biggest challenges that countries face today is the very unequal distributions of opportunities, resources, income and wealth across people. Inclusive prosperity – whereby many people from different backgrounds can benefit from economic growth, new technologies, and the fruits of globalization – remains elusive. To address these issues, societies face choices among many different policies and institutional arrangements to try to ensure a proper supply of productive jobs and activities, as well as access to education, financial means, and other endowments that prepare individuals for their participation in the economy. In this paper we offer a simple, organizing framework to think about policies for inclusive prosperity. We provide a comprehensive taxonomy of policies, distinguishing among the types of inequality they address and the stages of the economy where the intervention takes place. The taxonomy clarifies the differences among contending approaches to equity and inclusion and can help analysts assess the impacts and implications of different policies and identify potential gaps.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Inequality, Macroeconomics, Job Creation, Polarization, Productivity, Inclusion, Workforce, and Production
Political Geography:: United States

11. Majoritarian versus Proportional Representation Voting

Author:: Ethan Kaplan
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: What kind of voting system should countries have? This policy brief discusses the two main electoral systems in modern political democracies. It makes an argument that majoritarian systems such as what exists in the United States fail to properly represent voters. It suggests replacing the U.S. majoritarian political system with a proportional representation system and shows how this could be done within the context of current U.S. law. Both economists and political scientists have worked on the impact of electoral systems. Empirical methods from economics as well as economic analysis of the incentives created by different political systems have contributed to our understanding of the consequences of electoral systems on representation. Additionally, economists have estimated the impact of electoral system on fiscal expenditures, something we will discuss towards the end of the policy brief. There are two main voting systems in modern democratic societies: majoritarian systems and proportional representation systems. Federal voting in the United States is majoritarian though some states such as Maryland have proportional representation at the state level. In a majoritarian system, also known as a winner-take-all system or a first-past-the-post system, the country is divided up into districts. Politicians then compete for individual district seats. The candidate who receives the highest vote share wins the election and represents the district.
Topic:: Economics, Democracy, Representation, Macroeconomics, Voting, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: United States

12. EfIP Online Panel: A New Macroeconomics?

Author:: Jón Steinsson
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: There is a narrative within our field that macroeconomics has lost its way. While I have some sympathy with this narrative, I think it is a better description of the field 10 years ago than of the field today. Today, macroeconomics is in the process of regaining its footing. Because of this, in my view, the state of macroeconomics is actually better than it has been for quite some time. The most important problem with macro over the past few decades has been that it has been too theoretical. When I say this, I don‘t at all mean to say that theory is useless. To the contrary, theory is an essential element of a healthy science. But a healthy science needs a balance between theory and empirical work. Macro lost this balance in the 1980s and is only regaining it now. Most narratives about the evolution of macro focus on the evolution of macroeconomic theory and the rational expectations revolution in particular. An under-appreciated part of this story is that the rational expectations revolution shifted the field away from empirical work. This was partly because building models that met the higher standards of rigor set by Lucas and his co-revolutionaries was a challenging and therefore highly absorbing task. But that isn’t the only reason. For reasons that are not entirely clear to me, a very substantial fraction of macroeconomists came to believe that the Lucas critique implied that quasi-experimental empirical methods could not be used in macro. The idea that changes in policy could radically alter empirical regularities (i.e., the Lucas critique) somehow came to be interpreted to mean that the only way to do empirical work in macro was to write down fully specified general equilibrium models of the whole economy and evaluate the entire model (either by full-information inference methods or moment matching). Sargent, for example, placed enormous emphasis on the idea of “cross-equation restrictions.“ It seems that this line of thinking led large numbers of macroeconomists astray in terms of how to think about empirical work in macro for several decades.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: United States

13. New Directions in Macroeconomics

Author:: Gillian Brunet
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Without being overly prescriptive, macro research must meet two standards to keep the field moving in a productive direction: models must be tested empirically and researchers must think carefully about how underlying assumptions restrict the set of questions that can be answered with a given model. Models move knowledge forward through rigorous empirical testing. Matching moments in model calibration is not enough—nor should it be considered true empirics. When economics is done well, theory and empirics are complements: empirical research disciplines models and theory disciplines empirical research. In recent decades, macro research has tilted very heavily towards theory, forgoing the feedback generated by rigorous empirical testing and, as a consequence, dramatically reducing the ratio of insight to effort. Macro as a field must value empirical contributions to flourish fully. There has been significant progress in the last decade, but the balance still tilts heavily towards theory. Macroeconomists must stop dismissing empirical contributions as trivial for macro theory to reach its potential. It’s not an accident that many of today’s best macroeconomists stand out for their work in both theory and empirics: empirical work disciplines their theoretical research. Over the past 40-50 years, research in short-run macroeconomics has focused on the goal of creating unified, internally consistent models of the macroeconomy. While this is a worthy goal, it has perhaps become too dominant—and imposes hidden costs on research. The emphasis on developing a central baseline model to which idiosyncratic features are added for addressing a specific problem discourages many researchers from considering the suitability of the underlying model to the specific question being asked. As economists we are taught that every model is a simplification, so that the relevant question is not whether a model is good or bad but whether it is good or bad for answering a specific question. Yet choosing a single baseline model of the macroeconomy tends to obscure the closeness of the relationship between the model and the question it is used to answer. Often macroeconomists think carefully about the relationship between their question and the idiosyncratic features they add to the baseline model, but many of the assumptions underlying the baseline model become invisible and thus unquestioned. This is understandable given the complexity of modern macro models, but it has high costs. More careful consideration of the assumptions underlying baseline models and their appropriateness to individual research questions can help move the field forward.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:: United States

14. Artificial Intelligence Is Already Transforming the Alliance: It’s Time for NATO and the EU to Catch Up

Author:: Kulani Abendroth-Dias and Carolin Kiefer
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: For delivery within the European Union, Amazon now sells facial recognition cameras for door locks, webcams, home security systems, and office attendance driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)—powerful tools with civilian and military purposes. Germany, France, Spain, Denmark and Romania have tested and often deployed AI and ML facial recognition tools, many of which were developed in the United States and China, for predictive policing and border control. AI and ML systems aid in contact tracing and knowledge sharing to contain the COVID-19 virus. However, the civilian and military strategies that drive use of AI and ML for the collection and use of data diverge across the member states of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:: NATO, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

15. Stronger Together: NATO’s Evolving Approach toward China

Author:: Naďa Kovalčíková and Gabrielle Tarin
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: The rise of China poses a strategic challenge for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Alliance needs a comprehensive political, economic, and security strategy to deal with China’s growing global power. The more assertive a role China plays in world affairs, the more it could undercut NATO’s cohesion and military advantages by translating commercial inroads in Europe into political influence, investing in strategically important sectors, and achieving major breakthroughs in advanced digital technologies.
Topic:: NATO, Science and Technology, International Security, Digital Cooperation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

16. Work for Others, not Yourself: Globalization, Protectionism and Europe’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy

Author:: Fredrik Erixon
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Protectionism and mercantilism are yet again at the centre of global economic policy. “America First” is the guiding ethos in a good part of US international economic policy. Beijing is taking a larger stake in China’s economy and hand out privileges to domestic firms. Europe is increasingly occupied by achieving “strategic autonomy” and to create European champions at the expense of competition. Old and disreputed economic doctrines are getting a new lease on life. Behind this new orientation in international economic policy stands the old idea that a strong economy is an economy not dependent on others. Human prosperity – our story of rags to riches – tells a very different story. Prosperity is generated when people collaborate and improve our collective intelligence. Open economies are much better at creating wealth because they operate by the principle that people should work for others, not themselves. They specialize – and in the process, they get far more dependent on others. Dependency is a factor of success; economic sovereignty is a sure way of depriving people of opportunity and prosperity.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

17. The Tragedy of International Organizations in a World Order in Turmoil

Author:: Jean-Jacques Hallaert
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: China’s rise and the U.S. response to the perceived threat it represents to its predominance jeopardize the world order and affect international institutions. The paralysis of the WTO and the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO are the most visible examples, but not the only ones. This article presents the case of the International Monetary Fund. Quotas are the cornerstone of IMF governance. They determine each member’s contribution to the institution’s resources and their voting power. As the world evolves, the quota distribution needs to be adjusted. Adjustments in quota shares and thus voting powers have always been politically difficult. However, they were possible. In the early 1990s, members agreed to an increase in the representation of Japan. In the 2000s, they agreed to increase substantially the voting power of emerging economies. In contrast, the 15th General Review of Quotas concluded early 2020, failed to increase and realign quotas. The proximate cause for this was the opposition of the United States to a change in quotas. This paper argues that the U.S. decision was in large part motivated to prevent an increased influence of China. The failure to increase and realign voting powers may have long-lasting consequences. In the absence of a quota increase, the IMF will need to continue to rely on borrowed resources to avoid a drop in its lending capacity. This extension of the “temporary” recourse to borrowed resources undermines the governance of the Fund as voting powers (which are not linked to borrowed resources but only to quotas) are disconnected from member’s total contributions to the Fund and to their economic weight. This may trigger a new legitimacy crisis and provide incentives for countries like China to support the development of new and competing institutions which would better represent their interests and economic weight. Such a development would undermine the complex and fragile international financial architecture.
Topic:: International Organization, International Political Economy, Governance, IMF, and WTO
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Global Focus

18. Reset Overdue: Remaking U.S.—Saudi Relations

Author:: Annelle Sheline and Steven Simon
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • The U.S.–Saudi relationship is long overdue for a reset: The U.S. should push Saudi Arabia to engage productively with the region rather than tolerating policies that undermine stability. • Specifically, the U.S. should pressure Saudi Arabia to end the war on Yemen, end the blockade of Qatar, participate in the development of an inclusive regional security architecture, and respect the sovereignty of other countries and the human rights of Saudi citizens. • To encourage Saudi Arabia to adopt these policies, the U.S. should be prepared to support and invest in Saudi economic diversification and support the development of Saudi nuclear energy. If Saudi Arabia does not respond to these incentives, the U.S. should end all weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and seek other regional partners.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Sovereignty, Political stability, Diversification, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: United States and Saudi Arabia

19. The US–China trade deal and its impact on China’s key trading partners

Author:: Sonali Chowdhry and Gabriel Felbermayr
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: The US–China Economic and Trade Agreement (ETA) entered into force on 14th February 2020, marking a new phase in their protracted trade and geopolitical rivalry. The ETA includes specific targets for increased Chinese imports of US goods and services, amounting to 200 bn USD over 2020 and 2021. The authors show that these purchase commitments can generate substantial trade diversion effects and market share shifts for China’s top trading partners. In manufacturing, Germany is likely to experience the greatest trade diversion effects in a number of industries such as vehicles (-1.28 bn USD), aircraft (-1.59 bn USD) and industrial machinery (-0.72 bn USD). Moreover, developing countries will be hit if China re-directs its imports towards US suppliers. E.g. Brazil could experience a reduction of 4.95 bn USD in soybeans exports to China in 2021 as a result of the ETA.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Exports, Trade, Trade Policy, and Imports
Political Geography:: United States and China

20. Advancing Gender Integration into Global Fragility Act Country Strategies

Author:: Liz Hume, Megan Schleicher, Sahana Dharmapuri, and Erin Cooper
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This brief provides a summary of key recommendations from civil society on how to integrate gender into the GFS. It is critical that the GFA country and regional plans go beyond the individual empowerment of women in a society and aim to transform the societal power structures that fuel instability and inequality.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

21. Security for All: Applying the Women, Peace and Security Lens to the COVID-19 Pandemic Response in the U.S.

Author:: Kelly Case, Sahana Dharmapuri, Hans Hogrefe, Miki Jacevic, Jolynn Shoemaker, Moira Whelan, and Erin Cooper
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic does not respect borders or power. Armies, weapons, and fortifications will not destroy it. COVID-19 is a national security threat of a different kind. It has killed tens of thousands of Americans so far and has resulted in the complete shutdown of the American economy in just a few months. The United States and countries around the world need to reexamine what it takes for people to be safe. Policymakers can look to the Women, Peace and Security agenda (WPS) for guidance and urgently needed solutions. Policymakers have primarily focused on the Women, Peace and Security agenda exclusively in the foreign policy arena. It has important application for domestic policy as well, especially for achieving policy goals that link to security and prosperity for American families and communities.
Topic:: Security, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

22. Maternal Mortality and Maternity Care in the United States Compared to 10 Other Developed Countries

Author:: Laurie Zephyrin, Molly FitzGerald, Munira Z. Gunja, and Roosa Tikkanen
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: The U.S. has the highest maternal mortality rate among developed countries. Obstetrician-gynecologists (ob-gyns) are overrepresented in its maternity care workforce relative to midwives, and there is an overall shortage of maternity care providers (both ob-gyns and midwives) relative to births. In most other countries, midwives outnumber ob-gyns by severalfold, and primary care plays a central role in the health system. Although a large share of its maternal deaths occur postbirth, the U.S. is the only country not to guarantee access to provider home visits or paid parental leave in the postpartum period.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Women, and Reproductive Health
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

23. Flattening the Pandemic and Recession Curves

Author:: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: In the short run, the capacity of any country’s health system is finite (capacity of Intensive Care Units, number of hospital beds, number of skilled health professionals, ventilators….). This puts an upper bound on the number of patients that can be properly treated, at any given point in time and is represented by the flat line in the Figure. Unchecked, and given what we know of the transmission rate of the coronavirus, the pandemic would quickly overwhelm any health system, leaving many infected patients with deteriorating pulmonary conditions without any treatment. The fatality rate would surge. The threat is almost beyond comprehension. With a 2% case fatality rate baseline for overwhelmed health systems, and 50% of the world population infected, 1% of the world population -76 million people- would die. This scenario corresponds to the red curve in Figure 1. The part of the curve above the capacity of the health care system faces a sharply higher mortality risk (shaded red area).
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Health Care Policy, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: United States

24. Coronavirus and Managing Your Organization’s Response

Author:: Anton Korinek
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Organizations around the world are working through how to respond to the novel coronavirus, posing one of the greatest challenges to leaders in a long time. Do they restrict travel? Doing so would have substantial financial implication, make months of preparation worthless and lower the morale of many stakeholders who enjoy travel. However, travel is what brought the coronavirus to the country in the first place — and what continues to spread it to new communities within the country. What about instituting remote work procedures? In-person meetings and events may be a critical part of an organization’s activities and an important part of the value it offers. Perhaps there are no known cases of the virus in a given community. However, once it does gain a foothold, social distancing is the only way to slow the spread. Carriers of the virus may unwittingly spread it for days before symptoms manifest themselves. Above all, one of the greatest challenges is to balance an organization’s economic concerns with the question of what is ethically the best course of action.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

25. Racial Inequality

Author:: Lisa D. Cook and Trevon Logan
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: The origins of American capitalism in the institutions of slavery continues to cast a long shadow. As the economist William Darity Jr. has written, the dead hand of history weighs heavily on us because the dead hand of history remains fitfully alive. Contemporary racial inequality can be thought of as the product of a long historical process with at least two reinforcing sets of policies. The first would be policies governing the spatial distribution of the black population. The second would be policies that had a disparate impact on black individuals because of their locations. Understanding current black-white gaps in income, wealth and education require understanding the complex relationship between regional inequality, race and policies at the local, state, and national levels. In this article, we outline the ways that the spatial distribution of the black population has evolved over time and the ways that spatial distribution has interacted with policy to, at times, reduce and exacerbate levels of inequality. Recognizing the ways that past policies explicitly stymied black economic mobility and how current policies have explicitly or inadvertently done the same provides a basis for understanding how to craft future policies to reduce racial inequalities. Furthermore, recognizing the interconnection of discrimination and the spatial distribution of the black population is important for understanding certain components of regional and spatial inequality. The difference in location within regions makes it inevitable that policies that differentially affect urban and rural areas will have disparate effects by race. A recent example of this is the proposed Medicaid work requirement in Michigan. The original version of Michigan Senate Bill 897 exempted individuals from this work requirement conditional on residing in a county with an unemployment rate above 8.5 percent. The spatial distribution of the white and black populations of Michigan meant that this exemption would have racially disparate impacts; given that poor white individuals disproportionately live in rural areas and black individuals live in urban areas, the higher unemployment rates in rural counties would disproportionately exempt white Medicaid recipients from the work requirement within the bill. Although—after considerable negative press—the exemption was dropped from the final version of the work requirement bill, this incident reveals the complex interplay between policy, inequality across space, and inequality between races. Even if a policy like the unemployment rate exemption in the Michigan bill is crafted without discriminatory intent, it can nonetheless increase racial inequality. In the following sections we explore the how policy has shaped the geographic and economic mobility of the black population over the past century and a half, drawing from the large literatures on regional inequality and racial discrimination that have all too often been treated in isolation from one another.
Topic:: Economics, Race, Capitalism, Inequality, Slavery, Macroeconomics, Reparations, Racism, and Systemic Racism
Political Geography:: United States

26. Why, When, and How to Teach the Fundamentals of Inequality in Principles

Author:: Can Erbil and Geoffrey Sanzenbacher
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: The continued rise of economic inequality in the U.S. has been on the radar of economists and policymakers for the last few years. New initiatives and platforms like EfIP (Economics for Inclusive Prosperity) have emerged, where economists work on creating fresh and useful policy ideas to promote more “inclusive” models of generating prosperity. Yet, students still face a lot of confusion, “noise,” and disagreement when it comes to the topic of inequality.[1] Especially in the age of easy access to information online, students not fully literate in economics struggle to sift through the literature and separate rigorous scientifically based research from opinion pieces. This article discusses a way to introduce some recent trends in U.S. inequality to students, and then delve into a specific topic (e.g., racial inequality) in a two-lecture module at the end of an introductory economics course. After all, it is not that the students are not interested in this topic. But, left alone, many of them become confused. Students do not make distinctions between different broad types of inequalities, such as income inequality, wealth inequality, or inequality of opportunity. They do not understand differences in the underlying causes of inequality, which vary depending on whether the topic is inequality across educational groups, gender-based groups, or racial/ethnic groups. And, they make basic mistakes in reading articles or viewing data, such as mixing-up correlation with causation or looking at graphs with different scales. Fortunately, introductory economics courses have a chance to reach students early in their careers, and correct many of these deficiencies. Indeed, recent events in the US compel us to cover inequality and its consequences in our introductory classes. The economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic falls significantly more on minorities, women, people with lower income levels and people of color.[2] And, the disparities in poverty and opportunity rates between black and non-black populations is at the root of racial discrimination which re-ignited the BLM movement.[3] Indeed, economic inequality is also related to other disciplines in Social Sciences, such as Sociology, Political Science and even Liberal Arts courses such as History and English. However, Economics faculty are well-equipped to cover the empirical outcomes and the underlying economic models – and lay out their strengths as well as short-comings. Given that teaching about economic inequality is an important task, this article will first discuss when it makes sense to teach it. The article will then spend the majority of its time providing some tips for covering the material, as well as some suggested assignments.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Inequality, Economic Inequality, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:: United States

27. Restraining Ourselves: Helping by Not Hurting

Author:: Nathan Nunn
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: In this brief, I discuss the current state of economic development policy, which tends to focus on interventions, usually funded with foreign aid, that are aimed at fixing deficiencies in developing countries. The general perception is that there are inherent problems with less-developed countries that can be fixed by with the help of the Western world. I discuss evidence that shows that the effects of such ‘help’ can be mixed. While foreign aid can improve things, it can also make things worse. In addition, at the same time that this ‘help’ is being offered, the developed West regularly undertakes actions that are harmful to developing countries. Examples include tariffs, antidumping duties, restrictions on international labor mobility, the use of international power and coercion, and tied-aid used for export promotion. Overall, it is unclear whether interactions with the West are, on the whole, helpful or detrimental to developing countries. We may have our largest and most positive effects on alleviating global poverty if we focus on restraining ourselves from actively harming less-developed countries rather than focusing our efforts on fixing them.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Developing World, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

28. Considering the "Zero Option"

Author:: Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The strategic importance of the Middle East has declined, but Washington has so far inadequately adjusted. Diversification of energy sources and reduction in external threats to the region make the Middle East less important to U.S. interests.
Topic:: Cold War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

29. U.S. Nuclear Excess: Understanding the Costs, Risks, and Alternatives

Author:: Kingston Reif and Alicia Sanders-Zakre
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: In a little-noticed comment before his controversial July 2018 summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, U.S. President Donald Trump characterized his government’s multi-hundred billion dollar plans to replace the aging U.S. nuclear arsenal as “a very, very bad policy.” He seemed to express some hope that Russia and the United States, which together possess over 90 percent of the planet’s nuclear warheads, could chart a different path and avert renewed military and nuclear competition. The Helsinki meeting, however, did not produce any agreement on nuclear weapons and Trump has so far shown little interest in a different nuclear spending path. Quite the opposite, in fact.“We have far more money than anybody else by far,” Trump said last October. “We’ll build [the U.S. nuclear arsenal] up until” other nuclear-armed states such as Russia and China “come to their senses.” Citing a deteriorating international security environment, the Trump administration is pursuing a significant expansion of the role and capability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In addition to continuing full speed ahead with its predecessor’s plans to replace the nuclear triad and its associated warheads on largely a like-for-like basis, the administration is proposing to broaden the circumstances under which the United States would consider the first use of nuclear weapons, develop two new sea-based, lowyield nuclear options, and lay the groundwork to grow the size of the arsenal. At the same time, key U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreements, which serve to regulate the nuclear balance and prevent unconstrained nuclear competition, are now in serious doubt. The Trump administration has announced the United States will leave the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019 unless Russia returns to compliance with the pact, and expressed hostility towards extending the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). New START expires in 2021 but can be extended by up to five years subject to the agreement of Washington and Moscow. In short, the Trump administration is preparing to compete in a new nuclear arms race while simultaneously increasing the likelihood of such a contest. The projected cost of the proposed nuclear spending spree is staggering and it is growing. The United States currently plans to spend nearly $500 billion, after including the effects of inflation, to maintain and replace its nuclear arsenal over the next decade, according to a January 2019 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. This is an increase of nearly $100 billion, or about 23 percent, above the already enormous projected cost as of the end of the Obama administration. Over the next 30 years, the price tag is likely to top $1.5 trillion and could even approach $2 trillion. These big nuclear bills are coming due as the Defense Department is seeking to replace large portions of its conventional forces and internal and external fiscal pressures are likely to limit the growth of—and perhaps reduce—military spending. “We’re going to have enormous pressure on reducing the debt which means that defense spending—I’d like to tell you it’s going to keep going up—[but] I’m not terribly optimistic,” Alan Shaffer, deputy under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said in February 2019. This report outlines the ways in which the Trump administration’s nuclear strategy is unnecessary, unsustainable, and unsafe. It describes three realistic options to reduce spending on nuclear weapons while still maintaining a devastating nuclear deterrent. Scores of billions of dollars could be saved or redirected to higher priorities by eliminating, delaying, or scaling back the administration’s proposals for new delivery systems, warheads, and infrastructure.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Nonproliferation, Denuclearization, and Arms Race
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

30. Rescuing multilateralism

Author:: Anthony Dworkin and Richard Gowan
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Multilateralism is core to Europe’s approach to foreign policy, but in recent years this has weakened as EU countries disagree among themselves. The US, China, and Russia have each sought to challenge or disrupt the existing, post-1945 world order; and each seeks to divide Europeans from one another. The turmoil in the current system represents an opportunity for Europeans to shape a new order that meets their strategic needs. In addition to the fight against climate change, European interests include: increasing stability on its troubled periphery; managing migration more effectively; and defending the open world trading system. European countries will need to transform EU foreign policy decision-making processes, deepen their cooperation in multilateral settings, and set multilateral standards for emerging technologies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Migration, Political stability, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Europe

31. Women’s Participation and the Fate of Nonviolent Campaigns: A Report on the Women in Resistance (Wire) Data Set

Author:: Erica Chenoweth, Conor Seyle, and Sahana Dharmapuri
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: The Women, Peace and Security agenda is a transformative policy mandate with a global constituency. It provides policymakers with the tools to end cycles of violent conflict, create more equitable peace processes, and promote gender equality on a global, national, and local scale. Passed in October 2000, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (UNSCR 1325) underscores women’s agency, voice, and capacities as intrinsic to creating more effective international peace and security–related policies. Since 2000, more than 80 countries have adopted national action plans and policies to robustly implement the Women, Peace and Security agenda. In 2017, the US Congress adopted the Women, Peace, and Security Act to incorporate the principle of gender equality into US foreign policy. As the global agenda on Women, Peace and Security is increasingly implemented, the transformational role of women as direct actors in issues of peace and security is becoming more obvious. This is certainly true in the case of formal institutions, where women are increasingly represented in higher positions internationally. It is also true in less formal, official domains: women have been at the forefront of civil resistance movements throughout history, and they have been visible leaders in contemporary nonviolent resistance movements from Sudan to Algeria and beyond.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Women, Peace, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

32. If You Want Improved Security Outcomes You Have Tools

Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: THE GLOBAL FRAGILITY ACT OF 2019 Requires the U.S. government – in collaboration with civil society – to develop a 10-year strategy to enhance stability and to reduce violence and fragility globally. “The President...shall establish a comprehensive, integrated, ten-year strategy...to contribute to the stabilization of conflict-affected areas, address global fragility, and strengthen the capacity of the United States to be an effective leader of international efforts to prevent extremism and violent conflict. The strategy shall focus on addressing long-term causes of fragility and violence, and shall…address the long-term underlying causes of fragility and violence through participatory, locally led programs, empowering marginalized groups such as youth and women, inclusive dialogues and conflict resolutions processes, justice sector reform, good governance across all sectors, community policing and civilian security, and inclusive and accountable service delivery.”
Topic:: Security and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

33. US Leadership on Women and Foreign Policy: Recommendations for the 116th Congress

Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: Passed unanimously in October 2000, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (UNSCR 1325) underscores women’s agency, voice, and capacities as intrinsic to creating better policies and more equitable peace agreements.1 UNSCR 1325 was drafted and adopted by the UN Security Council with significant leadership from women-led civil society groups around the world. It has been followed by seven other resolutions (UNSCRs 1820, 1888, 1889, 1960, 2106, 2122, and 2242), which make up the Women, Peace and Security Agenda (WPS).2 WPS is a transformative policy mandate with a global constituency. It provides policymakers with the tools to end cycles of violent conflict, create more equitable peace processes, halt inequalities between men and women, and promote gender equality on a global, national, and local scale.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

34. Deter and Normalize Relations with North Korea

Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The U.S. is strong and safe—North Korea is weak, deterred by U.S. power, and desperate for economic relief.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, North Korea, and Korea

35. Women of the Alt-Right: An Intersectional Study of Far-Right Extremism, Gender, & Identity in the United States

Author:: Sarah Kenny
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: The alt-right, an expression of far-right violent extremism, presents a security risk to citizens in the United States and around the world. As globalization, mass immigration, and multiculturalism flourish, various collectives of fearful individuals and populist politicians will continue to embrace ethnonationalist worldviews and employ violent means to enforce them. To combat this security risk, it is essential to acknowledge that women make significant contributions to the altright and violent extremism. Women can no longer be misrepresented and excluded from efforts to prevent and counter this form of violent extremism. Exclusion has proven both disingenuous and dangerous along the road to realizing a comprehensive threat analysis and strategy.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Terrorism, Women, Domestic Politics, Gender Based Violence, and Far Right
Political Geography:: United States

36. Economics for Inclusive Prosperity: An Introduction

Author:: Suresh Naidu, Dani Rodrik, and Gabriel Zucman
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: We live in an age of astonishing inequality. Income and wealth disparities between the rich and the poor in the United States have risen to heights not seen since the gilded age in the early part of the 20th century, and are among the highest in the developed world. Median wages for American workers remain at 1970s levels. Fewer and fewer among newer generations can expect to do better than their parents. Organizational and technological changes and globalization have fueled great wealth accumulation among those able to take advantage of them, but have left large segments of the population behind. U.S. life expectancy has declined for the third year in a row in 2017, and the allocation of healthcare looks both inefficient and unfair. Advances in automation and digitization threaten even greater labor market disruptions in the years ahead. Climate change fueled disasters increasingly disrupt everyday life. Greater prosperity and inclusion both seem attainable, yet the joint target recedes ever further.
Topic:: Economics, Capitalism, Inequality, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: United States

37. Towards a Better Financial System

Author:: Anat R. Admati
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: The financial system is fragile and distorted because current rules fail to counter the distorted incentives by banking institutions to borrow excessively and to remain opaque. Better-designed rules to reduce the reliance on debt and ensure that institutions use significantly more equity would enable the financial system to serve society better. Revising counterproductive tax and bankruptcy codes that, together with the extensive safety net offered to the financial system currently encourage dangerous conduct, would also be beneficial.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Finance, Economic Policy, Economic Theory, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: United States

38. An Expanded View of Government’s Role in Providing Social Insurance and Investing in Children

Author:: Sandra E. Black and Jesse Rothstein
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: While private provision of goods often yields the efficient outcome, there are a number of goods that are not efficiently provided in the private market. Here, we outline two such situations: investments in child care and education, and insurance against risks created by business cycles, poor health, and old age. Because private markets work poorly for these goods, and the costs of market failure are large, standard economic reasoning implies a significant role for government provision. The reduction in economic insecurity that this would bring could help to improve political stability as well, by reducing the stakes that people perceive in discussions of trade, immigration, technological change, and countercyclical policy (Inglehart and Norris, 2016). Many observers (e.g, Hacker, 2018) have pointed to economic anxiety as a potential contributor to populist reactions in the U.S. and many European countries; a public sector that acts to reduce the risk that households face could ameliorate this, generating political spillovers and improving the state of the country more broadly.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Health, Health Care Policy, Children, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

39. Election Law and Political Economy

Author:: Ethan Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: In sum, political institutions in the United States favor higher income individuals over lower income individuals and ethnic majorities over ethnic minorities. This is accomplished through a myriad of policies which impact who votes, allow for differential influence and access by the wealthy, structure voting districts to dilute the impacts of under-represented voters, and allow for oversized influence of pro-business owner ideas through media and membership organizations.
Topic:: Economics, Law, Elections, Democracy, Economic Policy, and Voting
Political Geography:: United States

40. Labor in the Age of Automation and Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Anton Korinek
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: As technology advanced in recent decades, it increasingly left workers behind and led to sharp increases in inequality. The current wave of progress in artificial intelligence is likely to accelerate these trends. This note lays out three complementary approaches to countering these developments. Firstly, since technological progress generates net gains for society as a whole, the winners could in principle compensate the losers and still be better off. Secondly, progress should be steered to minimize the losses of workers. Thirdly, there is an important role for government intervention in information technology to thwart the rise of monopolies that extract rents from society. The note concludes with some speculations on the impact of artificial intelligence increasingly rivaling human labor.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: United States

41. How to think about finance?

Author:: Atif Mian
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: There has been a major structural shift in financial markets since the 1980s. The world is awash in credit, and credit is cheaper than ever before. I discuss how increasing financial surpluses within parts of the economy have resulted in an expansion in the supply of credit, which has largely financed the demand-side of the real economy. This increasing reliance on “credit as demand” raises some serious policy questions going forward. I discuss the importance of equitable and inclusive growth, fair taxation system and risk-sharing in creating a financial system that promotes prosperity and stability.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Finance, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: United States

42. Worker Collective Action in the 21st Century Labor Market

Author:: Suresh Naidu
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Private sector union density in the United States has fallen below 7%, but new historical evidence shows high union density played an important role in compressing the US income distribution at mid-century and lowering intergenerational income persistence. Other recent evidence on pervasive labor market power suggests that unions may be able raise wages without severe dis-employment effects, and may alleviate inefficient contracting problems. Despite substantial survey evidence indicating latent demand for unions, employers have successfully fought unionization efforts in rising service sectors, and a combination of legal restrictions and economic transformations have impaired the ability of US unions to solve collective action problems at the appropriate scale – an issue that economics may be able to help ameliorate.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: United States

43. Confronting Rising Market Power

Author:: Jonathan B. Baker and Fiona Scott Morton
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Rising market power in the U.S. economy is not just a microeconomic problem, as the textbook analysis shows, creating allocative efficiency losses and transferring wealth away from victimized participants in the affected markets. Rising market power also undermines inclusive prosperity by contributing to inequality and slowed economic growth. Modern economic research points to multiple ways to attack market power and enhance competition, including ways of strengthening antitrust enforcement, improving antitrust rules and institutions, and deploying regulation to enhance competition.
Topic:: Economics, Economic Policy, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Microeconomics
Political Geography:: United States

44. Antitrust and Labor Market Power

Author:: José Azar, Ioana Marinescu, and Marshall Steinbaum
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Starting with the Chicago School’s influence in the late 1970s and 1980s, antitrust enforcement has been weakened under the assumption that market power is justified by economic efficiency. While consumers are the main focus of antitrust enforcement, the weakening of antitrust enforcement has likely also adversely impacted workers, thus contributing to increasing inequality.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Policy, Economic Theory, and Antitrust Law
Political Geography:: United States

45. It’s Good Jobs, Stupid

Author:: Daron Acemoglu
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Progressive policy proposals that would have appeared radical just a few years ago, including high marginal tax rates, wealth taxes, universal basic income, single-payer health insurance, and free college for all, are now on the agenda. The recognition that we can do more to create shared prosperity — that is, economic growth benefiting society at large, not just corporations and the very well-educated — is a welcome development. But are we targeting the right policies? We are at a critical juncture both economically and politically. We do not have much time left to reverse the trend towards greater inequality and worsening economic prospects for less educated Americans before its social consequences become more deeply ingrained. And the 2020 presidential election may provide a unique opportunity to adopt fundamentally different economic policies. Failing to identify the right policy priorities would not only squander this critical juncture; it could also deepen the rift between the different wings of US politics.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: United States

46. Thoughts on Medicare for All

Author:: Ilyana Kuziemko
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: My read of the evidence (and my own social welfare weights, which place great weight on the un- and under-insured as well as middle-class workers who are implicitly taxed via expensive health plans) lead me to conclude that Medicare for All would increase welfare in the US. However, I also want to highlight what I consider the biggest risks of such a policy.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Health Care Policy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: United States

47. The Economics of Free College

Author:: David Deming
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Despite growing public concern about the cost of college, higher education is still the best investment a young person can make. The American public understands that college is both increasingly necessary and increasingly unaffordable. This dynamic explains the growing public conversation around the idea of “free college”.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Economic Policy, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: United States

48. Carbon Pricing for Inclusive Prosperity: The Role of Public Support

Author:: David Klenert and Linus Mattauch
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: It is common knowledge among economists that the most efficient instrument to mitigate climate change is a price on carbon. However, current carbon prices around the world are too low to reach global climate targets. This essay assesses the difficulties in designing successful carbon pricing reforms. It discusses how to overcome these difficulties by combining traditional public economics lessons with findings from behavioral and political science. We stress insights from public finance about the “second-best” nature of pricing carbon reforms. Further, we highlight how framing a carbon tax reform around tangible benefits can enhance political support. Finally, we explain how certain countries were successful at introducing high carbon prices and what can be learned from these cases for making progress with climate change mitigation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Global Warming, Green Technology, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: United States

49. Should We Worry About Corporate Leverage?

Author:: Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: There has been a large increase in corporate leverage in many countries since the early 2000s. Figure 1 plots corporate debt to GDP since 2002 for different groups of countries. With the exception of the U.S., both advanced economies and emerging markets have corporate debt exceeding GDP since 2005. U.S. corporate debt is also on an increasing trend. The fastest growth in corporate debt has been observed in emerging markets. A closer look will reveal that China and other fast growing emerging countries in Asia drive most of the increase in corporate debt for the emerging markets.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Regulation, Multinational Corporations, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

50. A World Dividing: The International Implications of the Sino-American Rift

Author:: Chas W. Freeman Jr.
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The Trump administration has declared economic war on China. The United States has raised taxes on Chinese imports to levels not seen since the Smoot–Hawley tariffs of the Great Depression. Over the course of this year, Chinese imports of American goods have decreased by 26.4 percent, while China’s exports to the United States are down 10.7 percent. Washington has embargoed exports to China of a constantly expanding list of high-tech manufactures. It seeks to block Chinese telecommunications companies from third-country markets. The United States has mounted a vigorous campaign to persuade other countries to reject Chinese investments in their infrastructure, notably in the case of 5G telecommunications networks.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, International Community, and Exports
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Global Focus

51. Enough Toxic Militarism

Author:: Nikhil Pal Singh
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: I teach college students at New York University’s campus on Washington Square in Manhattan and in its prison program in upstate New York. My students have never lived in a time when the United States was not at war. Growing up after the Vietnam War, when the United States had converted to an all-volunteer military, the great majority of my N.Y.U. students have not served in uniform, although the military is more likely to be a stop on the itinerary, or part of family experience, for those who end up in prison. For most of them, the wars in which U.S. soldiers and support personnel have been engaged on three continents for the past two decades retain a hazy, distant, and amorphous character; this perception is also typical now among civilian noncombatants. That the consequences of war-fighting remain seemingly remote ironically reinforces war as a natural and unchanging backdrop to social life in the United States today. We are overdue for a major cost accounting and reappraisal of these permanent wars.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Domestic Politics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: United States

52. The U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Toward a Relationship of Equals

Author:: Jessica J. Lee
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: President Trump contends that “very rich and wealthy countries” like the Republic of Korea should pay more for American troops stationed in their countries. While a more balanced burden-sharing arrangement is necessary, the U.S.’s demand for a five-fold increase in South Korea’s contribution, from $924 million to $5 billion, threatens to tear apart the bilateral relationship and undermines U.S. interests on the Korean Peninsula. The issue demanding attention is not who pays how much, but whether the existing terms of the U.S.–ROK security relationship remain pertinent or must be revised. The long-term goal of U.S. grand strategy should be to facilitate the creation of a peaceful global order consisting of fully sovereign, law-abiding states capable of providing for their own security. Any state that hosts foreign forces and relies on those forces for its defense is not fully sovereign: It is dependent upon others to ensure its security. This describes the Republic of Korea today.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Liberal Order, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and South Korea

53. End U.S. Military Support for the Saudi-Led War in Yemen

Author:: Enea Gjoza and Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The Yemeni Civil War is in its fourth year, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their allies are not close to a victory over the Houthi rebels.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Military Spending, Military Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa

54. Disentangling from Syria's Civil War

Author:: Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The United States intervened in Syria’s civil war in two ways: (1) anti-Assad efforts—through aid to rebels to help foster regime change and with airpower, troops and support to a militia—and (2) anti-ISIS efforts—through aid to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to destroy the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. The first mission was an ill-considered failure, the second a success.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iran, and Syria

55. Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America's Longest War

Author:: Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The war in Afghanistan—now America’s longest at nearly 18 years—quickly achieved its initial aims: (1) to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and (2) to punish the Taliban government that gave it haven. However, Washington extended the mission to a long and futile effort of building up the Afghan state to defeat the subsequent Taliban insurgency.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

56. Counting the Cost of Financial Warfare: Recalibrating Sanctions Policy to Preserve U.S. Financial Hegemony

Author:: Enea Gjoza
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The American economy, dollar, and banking system create unparalleled power for the U.S. in the global financial system. This power provides disproportionate influence over the world’s key economic and financial institutions, regulatory authority over major foreign companies and banks, and allows borrowing on favorable terms and in dollars, enabling long-term deficit spending.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Sanctions, Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

57. The Future of the ICBM Force: Should the Least Valuable Leg of the Triad Be Replaced?

Author:: Ryan Snyder
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the plan to overhaul the nation’s nuclear arsenal is the replacement program for the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force, the land-based leg of the nuclear triad that also includes submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and heavy bombers. The current deployed fleet of 400 silo-based Minuteman III ICBMs are distributed across three bases touching five states and are expected to be removed from service by the U.S. Air Force in the mid-2030s. A follow-on ICBM system–known as the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)–is scheduled to replace the Minuteman IIIs (and their supporting infrastructure) on a one-for-one basis between 2028 and 2035. Many have questioned the need for this program, including former Secretary of Defense William Perry, who has argued for eliminating all ICBMs. The latest independent Pentagon acquisition cost estimate to design and build the ICBM replacement ranges from $85 to over $140 billion (in then-year dollars), while the cost to operate and sustain the weapons system over its expected 50-year service life is projected at roughly $150 billion. This ICBM recapitalization cost is but one piece of a larger plan to sustain and upgrade the nuclear arsenal over the next thirty years, with the total price tag projected to exceed $1.2 trillion (in 2017 dollars). Separate modernization programs planned for U.S. conventional forces will require additional outlays. These upgrades will necessitate either a significant and prolonged increase in defense spending, which is unlikely to be forthcoming, or a reallocation of resources within the defense budget. Hard choices will likely be required among competing programs. The Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review published in February endorses replacing and upgrading the current Minuteman III force with the GBSD program. It will be up to Congress to assess the program’s cost-effectiveness and evaluate alternatives. This paper will examine this issue in several stages: first, by considering whether ICBMs are needed to hedge against threats to the strategic submarines; second, by discussing their possible benefits and risks as a warhead “sponge”; third, by examining whether ICBMs possess necessary capabilities absent from other legs of the triad; and last, by considering the stability implications of developing a new ICBM with enhanced capabilities. Finally, the paper evaluates alternative options to the costly GBSD program of record.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Missile Defense, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

58. U.S.-Russian Arms Control At Risk: An Assessment and Path Forward

Author:: Maggie Tennis
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: In March 2017, Gen. Paul Selva, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) that Russia had deployed a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) violating the “spirit and intent” of the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Selva warned the committee that Russia is “modernizing its strategic nuclear triad and developing new nonstrategic nuclear weapons.” His testimony illustrates the new normal of U.S.-Russian relations, wherein historic nuclear cooperation is profoundly at risk. Russia’s alleged INF Treaty violation has soured already strained relations between the world’s largest nuclear powers. Yet, the United States and Russia continue to share a common interest in ensuring nuclear stability worldwide. Together, the countries possess over 90 percent of the planet’s roughly 15,000 nuclear weapons. This power carries a responsibility to rejuvenate cooperative initiatives that reduce nuclear risks dating back to the depths of the Cold War. To effectively evaluate the opportunities and challenges involved in that objective, U.S. policymakers must understand Russia’s current nuclear force policy and strategy. This policy paper examines Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, capabilities and modernization efforts, the status of U.S.-Russian arms control treaties, and the primary obstacles to cooperation. It concludes by offering a set of recommendations for both mitigating threats to strategic stability and resuming a productive U.S.-Russian arms control dialogue.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Nuclear Power, and INF Treaty
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

59. Empowering Congress on Nuclear Security: Blueprints for a New Generation

Author:: Jack Brosnan, Andrew Semmel, Nathan Sermonis, and Kingston Reif
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: The global nuclear security enterprise is at a critical crossroads. While the worldwide use of nuclear and radioactive materials has grown, the issue of nuclear security has all but faded from the U.S. national conversation. As these materials become more widespread, they will be vulnerable to criminal and terrorist organizations without sufficient security efforts. This report reveals a concerning loss of congressional leadership and interest in critical efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism. While the threat grows more complex, U.S. funding, oversight, and international cooperation to secure nuclear and radiological materials has diminished. By analyzing historic bipartisan initiatives and current congressional staff attitudes on nuclear security, this report offers an important blueprint to revitalize U.S. leadership through Capitol Hill. Providing recommended action items and effective strategies for engaging Congress, the report is a useful tool for both policymakers and educators.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, National Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States

60. Grooming the next Generation of Foreign Policymakers: Women, Peace and Security in Practice

Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: The Problem: There is a need to groom the next generation of policymakers on the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. This is due to a rising demand in international affairs-related careers that require gender and WPS expertise, and the passage of the 2017 Women, Peace and Security Act which mandates enhanced professional training and education on Women, Peace and Security. However, trainings and educational programs on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) are created in silos such as academia, military, government, etc., and are often ad hoc. The Solution Strengthen the Women, Peace and Security community of educators and practitioners. Regular collaboration across sectors can help map the field, inventory strategies to professionalize the field, and encourage institutions to offer more training and educational programs on WPS on a regular basis. Key Takeaway from the Experts Policymakers, practitioners, and scholars identified a key first step: in order to professionalize the field, it is necessary to establish an agreed-upon set of “minimum core competencies” for Women, Peace and Security to groom the next generation of policymakers and leaders.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

61. Women, Peace & Security: By the Numbers

Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: There is a growing body of evidence that shows us that women’s participation yields positive results. Whether in governance, in peace processes, or serving as peacekeepers, increasing the number of women at the table can reduce corruption, increase trust, and create sustainable peace.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

62. What You Should Know about the Women, Peace, and Security Act of 2017

Author:: Sahana Dharmapuri, Jolynn Shoemaker, and Sarah Williamson
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: The Women, Peace, and Security Act of 2017 is a major milestone for US law. It recognizes that women are on the frontlines of international security challenges as powerful agents of change to create stability and peace. The law mandates women’s meaningful participation in international peace and security.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

63. The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in the United States

Author:: Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Right-wing extremism in the United States appears to be growing. The number of terrorist attacks by far-right perpetrators rose over the past decade, more than quadrupling between 2016 and 2017. The recent pipe bombs and the October 27, 2018, synagogue attack in Pittsburgh are symptomatic of this trend. U.S. federal and local agencies need to quickly double down to counter this threat. There has also been a rise in far-right attacks in Europe, jumping 43 percent between 2016 and 2017.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:: United States

64. The WIIS Gender Scorecard: Washington, DC Think Tanks - 2018

Author:: Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Soraya Kamali-Nafar
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: For over 30 years, Women In International Security (WIIS) has worked to advance the role of women in national and international security. While much progress has been made, the number of women occupying prominent positions in foreign and defense policy remains limited. As a result, the role of women in decision making in foreign and defense policies is under-developed. Indeed, while women constitute 40 percent of the Foreign Service officer corps, they hold only one-third of the chief of mission positions.1 Women make up 33 percent of the Department of Defense civilian staff and 18 percent of the DOD active duty officer corps, and they remain grossly under-represented at the highest ranks—less than 8 percent have the rank of general or flag officer.2 Women also remain under-represented as expert commentators in the media. Women accounted for just 24 percent of foreign affairs and national security experts invited to speak on major political talk shows.3 Manels— that is, event panels with only men—remain common in the United States, including in Washington, DC.4
Topic:: Gender Issues, Intelligence, National Security, Women, and Think Tanks
Political Geography:: United States

65. Gender Parity in Peace Operations: Opportunities for U.S. Engagement

Author:: Luisa Ryan and Shannon Zimmerman
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: At the UN Peacekeeping Defense Ministerial Conference, Canada announced the launch of the Elsie Initiative on Women in Peace Operations. Through tailored technical support, the initiative aims to help troop-contributing countries recruit and retain female soldiers. It is one of the first initiatives to directly address the lack of female personnel at the deploying country level. As one of the co-hosts of the 2017 UN Peacekeeping ministerial, the United States is in a strong position to partner in the work of the Elsie Initiative. By so doing, it can entrench the concept of gender parity in its current UN peacekeeping training programs and deployments and better lead knowledge-sharing efforts with partner militaries. The Elsie Initiative also gives the United States an opportunity to reinforce partnerships that enhance global security while bolstering its leadership in gender parity and UN reform. Efforts such as the Elsie initiative to improve the effectiveness of peace operations will directly benefit US national interests by strengthening alliances and enabling recipient countries to take an increasing role in providing for collective and regional security.
Topic:: Gender Issues, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

66. Using wage boards to raise pay

Author:: Arindrajit Dube
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: During the past 40 years, the United States has experienced a sharp and sustained rise in wage and income inequality. The high level of inequality in the United States reflects both a disconnect between (1) average wages and productivity, and (2) top and bottom wages.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, Labor Policies, Wage Subsidies, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: United States

67. Not the Usual Suspects: Engaging Male Champions of Women, Peace and Security

Author:: Jolynn Shoemaker and Sahana Dharmapuri
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: Men who participated in this study highlighted the transformational potential of Women, Peace and Security to redefine how the international community conceptualizes and approaches security. • Among male champions of Women, Peace and Security there is a common view that current institutions and approaches are failing to achieve peace and security and that it is time for change. There is a recognition that gender forms a foundational pillar of social justice and that it is impossible to achieve social needs and human potential without addressing gender.
Topic:: Security, Women, Peace, Men, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

68. US and German Civilian-led Efforts in Conflict and Fragile Contexts: Addressing Internal Challenges to Improve Impact

Author:: Megan German
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: This brief takes a close look at the government responses of Germany and the United States to conflict and crises around the globe and examines some of the internal challenges that inhibit both countries’ ability to implement conflict mitigation and prevention programs and ultimately their ability to deliver effective foreign assistance abroad. This brief makes recommendations in light of four core obstacles that must be addressed if both nations want to improve their foreign assistance delivery and help to stabilize and transform conflict in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Aid, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Germany

69. Women, Gender, and Terrorism: Understanding Cultural and Organizational Differences

Author:: Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Jeannette Gaudry
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: As the idea that women can and should play pivotal roles in preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) gains greater traction, decision makers and scholars must keep striving toward a more nuanced understanding of the historical, cultural, and gendered contexts that enable extremist movements and organizations to grow. Without study, research, discussion, and stronger links with local actors and scholars to gain contextual understanding, U.S. analysts and policymakers risk creating a catalog of programs and policies internationally that include and empower women but fail to stem the tide of extremism and violence. Increasing women’s empowerment and strengthening their roles in community life, peace, and security are important steps, but even these can fail or backfire without deep cultural understanding.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Violent Extremism, Women, and Violence
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

70. Equipping and Training Modifications for Combat Arms Women

Author:: Ellen Haring
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: In July 2016 at Fort Benning, Georgia, US women for the first time began training to become Army infantry and armor officers. This first cohort of women has neither been issued women-specific equipment to accommodate smaller physical frames. In addition, while some equipment challenges can be addressed through modifications in training, others require equipment modifications and new procurement. To optimize women's performance in this uncharted terrain, the Army must ensure they receive appropriate training and equipment also collect, monitor, and evaluate data on the performance of all its soldiers.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Armed Forces, and Women
Political Geography:: United States

71. Women, Gender, and Terrorism Policies and Programming

Author:: Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Jeannette Gaudry
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: In recent years, policymakers and international actors have begun to recognize the important role of women and women’s organizations in preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE). In October 2015, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2242, which linked the women, peace and security (WPS) and the P/CVE agendas and called for synergies between efforts aimed at countering violent extremism and those furthering the WPS agenda. In 2016, the US government incorporated P/CVE in its National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security. The idea that women can be powerful allies in the fight against violent extremism is based primarily on two interrelated observations. First, women often function at the heart of their communities and are thus best placed to recognize early warning signs of radicalization. Effective P/CVE programs will capitalize on this. Second, a community that hopes to address extremism effectively must include the broadest possible range of perspectives in its programming. Because society, economies, and war affect them in gender-specific ways, women bring different perspectives to discussions and plans affecting security. That said, women-centric P/CVE programming is in its infancy. An initial review of these programs points to five main problems, which are explored in this policy brief.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Terrorism, United Nations, Counter-terrorism, and Women
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

72. Recent Department of Labor Rules Open the Door for States to Move Forward with Retirement Initiatives

Author:: David S. Mitchell and Jeremy Smith
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: On November 18, 2015, the Obama Administration's Department of Labor (DOL) published two important legal opinions that propose to give states new options for expanding retirement coverage for private-sector workers. These opinions open the door for states to move forward along one of two distinct paths: a payroll deduction plan that avoids ERISA, or a more traditional model that would fall under ERISA. This issue brief summarizes these rules and highlights the tradeoffs state policymakers will face when deciding which of these new avenues to pursue. The brief will be updated once the proposals are finalized.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, Labor Issues, Governance, and Social Movement
Political Geography:: United States

73. EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author:: Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, European Union, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

74. The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author:: Cordella Buchanan Ponczek
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defense and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: United States

75. Resuming Negotiations with North Korea

Author:: Elizabeth Philipp
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: The window of opportunity to prevent North Korea from fielding nuclear-armed ballistic missiles is closing. Diplomatic engagement with North Korea has been scant in recent years. In response to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests, the United States and other countries, through actions of the United Nations Security Council and independent policies, have adopted an approach of increasing political and economic isolation. Yet, during this time, Pyongyang has improved its nuclear weapons capability quantitatively and qualitatively. The next presidential administration must prioritize reviewing and renewing Washington’s diplomatic approach to North Korea. With each successive nuclear and missile test, North Korea advances its knowledge and consolidates its capability. History has shown that it is far easier to convince North Korea to negotiate away a military capability it does not yet possess. Washington’s stated primary concern is a North Korean nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Pyongyang will achieve this capability if it is not reined in through a diplomatic agreement or understanding. Once Pyongyang achieves this status, the security balance in Asia will be disrupted and U.S. diplomats will be hard-pressed to convince North Korea to abandon the capability.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: United States and North Korea

76. North Korea’s Nuclear Threat: How to Halt Its Slow but Steady Advance

Author:: Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: In the first five weeks of 2016, North Korea twice defied UN Security Council resolutions designed to stem its pursuit of nuclear weapons. On January 6, it conducted its fourth underground nuclear test; on February 7, it launched a satellite into space for the second time. These two events provided a vivid reminder that North Korea continues to make progress mastering the technology needed for developing long-range ballistic missiles and arming them with nuclear warheads. U.S. leaders have long sought to formulate and implement policies that would secure a denuclearized Korean peninsula, but these efforts have not been successful. U.S. political commentary on North Korea vacillates between taking at face value the regime’s exaggerated claims of technological prowess and reducing its leadership to cartoonish stereotypes. A clearer understanding of North Korea’s motives and the current status of its nuclear and missile programs can lead to a more realistic strategy for enhancing U.S. security. That strategy would involve using enhanced sanctions as leverage for achieving a halt in North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing and production of fissile material, but this can only happen through negotiations.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, International Security, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: United States and North Korea

77. The Future of Work for Low-Income Workers and Families

Author:: Vickie Choltz and Maureen Conway
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The Future of Work for Low-Income Workers and Families is a policy brief aimed at state policy advocates and policymakers seeking to help low-income workers and their families secure healthy economic livelihoods as the nature of work evolves in the United States. Published by the Working Poor Families Project in December 2015, the brief was written by Vickie Choitz, associate director of the Economic Opportunities Program, with Maureen Conway, vice president at the Aspen Institute and executive director of the Economic Opportunities Program. This brief reviews the major forces shaping the future of work, including changes in labor and employment practices, business models, access to income and benefits, worker rights and voice, education and training, and technology. Across these areas, we are seeing disruptive change in our economy and society resulting in increasing risk and challenges for low-income workers, in particular.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Welfare, Social Stratification, and Employment
Political Geography:: United States

78. Reimagining Financial Security: Managing Risk and Building Wealth in an Era of Inequality

Author:: Annie Kim
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The 2015 Financial Security Summit, titled Reimagining Financial Security: Managing Risk and Building Wealth in an Era of Inequality, took place July 15–17 in Aspen, Colorado. The Summit agenda built on FSP's core themes of expanding retirement security and children’s savings accounts for low- and moderate-income families, and began to explore a broader vision of how to improve short- and long-term dimensions of financial wellbeing in a rapidly changing economy. Participant contributions helped shape new areas of focus for FSP going forward. This report incorporates those insights and provides an outline for future policy dialogue and directions.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Welfare, Social Stratification, and Employment
Political Geography:: United States

79. Economic Statecraft: American Economic Power and the New Face of Financial Warfare

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg and Zachary K. Goldman
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States has long relied on its economic power to protect and advance its interests abroad. In an increasingly integrated international financial system, the U.S. economy and capital markets remain the largest in the world by almost every measure. This status affords the United States an important global leadership position and the ability to shape foreign policy outcomes with economic tools. The structure of the international trade and financial system, in which many significant banking and energy transactions as well as currency reserves are denominated in U.S. dollars, reinforces the central role of the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States

80. Still Broken: Governments must do more to fix the international corporate tax system

Author:: Francis Weyzig
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The gap between where companies pay tax and where they really do their business is huge, as shown by new research described in this briefing. In 2012, US multinationals alone shifted $500–700bn, mostly to countries where these profits are not taxed, or taxed at very low rates. G20 countries themselves are among the biggest losers. The measures recently announced by the OECD leave the fundamentals of a broken tax system intact and do not stop the race to the bottom in corporate taxation. G20 governments must do more and should strongly support further reforms.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Governance, Budget, G20, and Income Inequality
Political Geography:: United States

81. Uncoordinated Deconfliction' in Syria: A Recipe to Contain, Not Defeat, ISIS

Author:: Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington's nascent policy of "uncoordinated deconfliction" with Bashar al-Assad's regime in the fight against the "Islamic State"/ISIS may not be a formal alliance, but it does have the potential to foster serious problems. The regime's tacit agreement to avoid firing on coalition strike aircraft -- juxtaposed with long delays in the Obama administration's train-and-equip program for the Syrian opposition and the president's October 2014 letter to Iran's Supreme Leader on cooperation against ISIS -- is creating widespread perceptions that the United States is heading into a de facto alliance with Assad and Tehran regarding the jihadists. If Washington continues this policy as is, it will merely contain ISIS, not "defeat" or "destroy" the group as called for by President Obama. Worse, it could lead to a deadly extremist stalemate in Syria between Iranian-backed/Hezbollah forces and jihadists, amplifying threats to U.S. national security interests.
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Syria

82. What to Expect from Syria Peace Talks in Moscow

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After two rounds of peace talks in Geneva failed to resolve the Syrian crisis, Moscow proposed in December 2014 its own peace talks between the Syrian government and the opposition. Earlier this month, Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed that the talks would take place January 26-29, according to Russian press reports. Bogdanov has described the talks as "consultative" and "preparatory," without any preconditions or set agenda. They could, he said, lead to more concrete discussions. Although the United States is not participating in the Moscow talks, U.S. secretary of state John Kerry expressed hope on January 14 in Geneva that they "could be helpful."
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Moscow

83. The ISIS Fight and the State of the Union Address

Author:: David Pollock, Robert Satloff, Andrew J. Tabler, and James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In last night's State of the Union speech, President Obama had the opportunity to educate the American people on the unique challenges posed by the "Islamic State"/ISIS, as well as the tough choices the United States and others will have to make as they deal with this phenomenon. Instead, he cited the issue only in passing, reiterating his "degrade and ultimately destroy" commitment without giving any idea what the next steps are beyond mentioning the increasingly risible effort to arm a Syrian opposition on slow simmer (see PolicyWatch 2357, "Train and Equip Not Enough for U.S.-Backed Syrian Rebels"), and the passing of a Congressional resolution to authorize the use of force against ISIS. This was in contrast to the extensive airtime he dedicated to touting his initiative on Cuba, which -- regardless of one's views on that decision -- is an almost irrelevant issue given the various crises occurring around the globe.
Political Geography:: United States

84. The Palestinians Go to the ICC: Policy Implications

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although the prospect of the ICC actually prosecuting Israeli officials is uncertain at best, the PA has torpedoed any chances for near-term diplomacy merely by opening that door, and perhaps invited U.S. financial countermeasures as well.
Political Geography:: United States and Palestine

85. U.S.-Israel Relations: A Changing Landscape?

Author:: Jonathan Rynhold
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 23, Jonathan Rynhold and Elliott Abrams addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Rynhold is a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), director of the Argov Center for the Study of Israel and the Jewish People, and author of the just-released book The Arab-Israel Conflict in American Political Culture (Cambridge University Press). Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and former deputy national security advisor in the George W. Bush administration. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

86. Forging Afghanistan's National Unity Government

Author:: Ali Jalali
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan's presidential election was resolved in a U.S.-brokered deal that created a national unity government (NUG). New president Ashraf Ghani, by decree, created the post of chief executive officer (CEO), filled by Abdullah Abdullah. This has resulted in a power-sharing arrangement between two teams, the legal parameters of which will not be decided for another two years. In addition to its internal tensions, the NUG faces a challenging political, security, and economic situation in the country at large—one that threatens to be exacerbated as international assistance and U.S. military forces draw down. The formation of the NUG, however, also presents an opportunity for Afghanistan's leaders to redefine the role of government and institute reforms that can strengthen public support and improve the chances of obtaining further international assistance. To take advantage of these opportunities, leaders in the NUG could make a serious unified commitment to reforms and fully integrate the governing body both politically and professionally, despite the power-sharing arrangement that has been created.
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

87. The Fight Against ISIS: Shiite Militias and the Coalition Effort

Author:: Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and P.J. Dermer
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 6, 2015, Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and P.J. Dermer addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Knights is an Institute Lafer Fellow and author of the Institute study The Long Haul: Rebooting U.S. Security Cooperation in Iraq. Smyth is a researcher at the University of Maryland and author of the Institute study The Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its Regional Effects. Dermer is a retired U.S. Army colonel who served multiple tours in the Middle East, including two in Iraq. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

88. The Islamic State's Expansion in Libya

Author:: Andrew Engel
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Earlier this month, Aref Ali Nayed -- Libya's ambassador to the UAE and former lead coordinator of the Libya Stabilization Team -- visited Washington to address the "Islamic State"/ISIS presence in his country. In his view, the group is rapidly expanding and may threaten Europe, though the U.S. government assessment is less certain -- some American intelligence officials believe Nayed may be overstating his case, but U.S. Ambassador to Libya Deborah Jones asked in a February 4 tweet whether "a divided Libya" can withstand ISIS. Indeed, the group has dramatically increased its physical and media presence in Libya since the Islamic Youth Shura Council (IYSC) of Darnah pledged allegiance to it last October, after which ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi recognized the Libyan "provinces" of Barqa (Cyrenaica), Tripolitania, and Fezzan as belonging to his self-styled "caliphate." At the same time, the group's supporters online have been aggressively recruiting while making the case for ISIS expansion in Libya and a new strategy in North Africa.
Political Geography:: United States, Libya, and North Africa

89. The Arctic Council Leadership Merry-go-round: Words of Advice as the United States Assumes the Arctic Council Chairmanship

Author:: Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: In April 2015, Canada will hand the chairmanship of the Arctic Council to the United States. As the chair, the United States will have an opportunity to shape the priorities of the Arctic Council for the next two years and communicate its vision for the future of the circumpolar region. In anticipation of acquiring this leadership role, the United States first provided a sense of its vision for the chairmanship on September 30, 2014 in Washington, DC, during the Passing the Arctic Council Torch conference supported by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Canada

90. TSG IntelBrief: Iran Deal Remains Elusive

Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Iran and the P5+1 countries are expected to issue a joint statement today that outlines most aspects of a comprehensive nuclear deal, but defers some still thorny issues to further talks A key remaining sticking point is Iran's demand for immediate and comprehensive lifting of sanctions, which the P5+1 cannot accept The United States is attempting to reassure nervous regional partners, such as Israel and Arab Gulf states, that the U.S. is not making too many concessions for the sake of a deal U.S. allies in the region are concerned that lifting sanctions, even if done gradually, will enable Iran to provide even more military and financial aid to the Assad regime in Syria, Shi'a militias in Iraq, and the Houthi movement in Yemen.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria

91. A Transatlantic Approach for the Arab World: Stability through Inclusivity, Good Governance, and Prosperity

Author:: Amy Hawthorne, Frances G. Burwell, and Danya Greenfield
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: A new Atlantic Council report warns against the tendency of Europe and the United States to sideline political and economic reform in the Middle East while they pursue urgent security priorities in this turbulent region. Instead, the transatlantic partners should forge a shared strategy to encourage political systems that can protect Arab citizens' basic rights, provide security, deliver broad prosperity, and mitigate violent extremism.
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Middle East

92. False Dichotomy: Stability Versus Reform in the Arab World

Author:: Danya Greenfield and Faysal Itani
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: To cling to current short-sighted policies and to help sustain dysfunctional states in the Middle East for the sake of short-term security would condemn the region to poverty and further instability, which threaten to have negative consequences for US interests.
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

93. Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper, and Jason Tower
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot" toward Asia. In 2012, Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed his hope for "a new type of relationship" with the United States. A lack of strategic trust between the two countries, however, prevents critically needed productive cooperation. This Peace Brief addresses the misunderstandings behind this mistrust and a possible way to move beyond them.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

94. Quantity Theory of Money Redux? Will Inflation Be the Legacy of Quantitative Easing?

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Since the onset of the Federal Reserve's unconventional program of large scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE), some economists and financial practitioners have feared that the consequent buildup of the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a large expansion of the money supply, and that such an increase could cause a sharp rise in inflation. So far fears about induced inflation have not been validated. This Policy Brief examines the basis for the original concerns about inflation in terms of the classic quantity theory of money, which holds that inflation occurs when the money supply expands more rapidly than warranted by increases in real production. The Brief first reviews the US experience and shows that whereas rapid money growth might have been a plausible explanation of inflation in the 1960s through the early 1980s, subsequent data have not supported such an explanation. It then shows that the quantity theory of money has not really been put to the test after the Great Recession, because a sharp increase in banks' excess reserves and corresponding sharp decline in the "money multiplier" has meant that the rise in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has not translated into increased money available to the public in the usual fashion. The most likely aftermath of quantitative easing remains one of benign price behavior. However, if nascent inflationary conditions materialize, the Federal Reserve will need to manage adroitly the large amounts of banks' excess reserves that have accumulated as a consequence of QE in order to limit inflationary pressures.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Federal Reserve
Political Geography:: United States

95. Reshoring by US Firms: What Do the Data Say?

Author:: Lindsay Oldenski
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Reshoring—when firms shift manufacturing production back to the United States—has been getting a great deal of publicity lately. Oldenski examines the most recent data on the global operations of US firms and concludes that although some companies have reversed their previous offshoring decisions, there is no evidence of a widespread reshoring trend. But this should not be considered a defeat for US competitiveness. US multinationals continue to move operations offshore, but they also continue to grow stronger, producing more in their US operations and adding more to total US exports. The structure of US manufacturing has changed, but the ability to adapt to the changing nature of global business has been and will continue to be crucial to the continued growth of US manufacturing.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

96. Chinese Investment and CFIUS: Time for an Updated (and Revised) Perspective

Author:: Theodore Moran
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For more than a decade, China has complained about what it maintains has been a pattern of erratic and politicized treatment of Chinese investors when they attempt to acquire US companies. The Chinese want the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to be more open and transparent in its rulings and to not discriminate against Chinese firms. The United States is not likely to accede to these demands in any formal or legal manner. Moran proposes practical steps to address the concerns of Chinese investors without diluting CFIUS procedures. He provides a national security threat assessment filter, which allows Chinese investors—like investors of all nationalities—to determine when their proposed acquisitions might pose a genuine threat and when any such threat is simply not plausible. He also suggests that first-time Chinese investors seek expert counsel to overcome the secrecy surrounding CFIUS objections to figure out how to proceed with problematic acquisitions.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States

97. Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper, and Jason Tower
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot" toward Asia. In 2012, Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed his hope for "a new type of relationship" with the United States. A lack of strategic trust between the two countries, however, prevents critically needed productive cooperation. This Peace Brief addresses the misunderstandings behind this mistrust and a possible way to move beyond them.
Topic:: International Relations, Communism, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

98. An Assessment of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey Schott, Eujiin Jung, and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Of all the free trade agreements (FTAs) concluded by Korea with its major trading partners since the turn of the century, the Korea-China FTA may be the largest in trade terms. It is, however, far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment policies. Korea and China agreed to liberalize a large share of bilateral trade within 20 years, but both sides incorporated extensive exceptions to basic tariff reforms and deferred important market access negotiations on services and investment for several years. Political interests trumped economic objectives, and the negotiated outcome cut too many corners to achieve such a comprehensive result. The limited outcome in the Korea-China talks has two clear implications for economic integration among the northeast Asian countries. First, prospects for the ongoing China-Japan-Korea talks will be limited and unlikely to exceed the Korea-China outcome. Second, Korea and Japan need to strengthen their bilateral leg of the northeast Asian trilateral and the best way is by negotiating a deal in the context of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

99. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2015

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The latest semiannual fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) estimates find that the US dollar is now overvalued by about 10 percent, comparable to levels in 2008 through early 2010 and again in 2011. Unlike then, the current strong dollar does not reflect a weak renminbi kept undervalued by major exchange rate intervention by China. Instead, China's current account surplus has fallen sharply relative to GDP, and its recent intervention has been to prevent excessive depreciation rather than to prevent appreciation. Additionally, declines in the real effective exchange rates (REERs) for major emerging-market economies and resource-based advanced economies, driven by falling commodity prices in recent months, have strengthened the dollar. Recent increases in the REERs for the euro area and Japan have removed their modest undervaluation identified in the last FEERs estimates in May, and the Chinese renminbi remains consistent with its FEER. The dollar's rise by nearly 15 percent in real effective terms over the past two years could impose a drag of nearly one-half percent annually on US demand growth over the next five years. As the Federal Reserve moves to normalize US monetary policy, it may need to consider a gentler rise in interest rates than it might otherwise have pursued, both to temper possible further strengthening of the dollar in response to higher interest rates and to help offset the demand compression from falling net export
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:: United States and China

100. Why China Won't Abandon Its Nuclear Strategy of Assured Retaliation

Author:: Fiona S. Cunningham and M. Taylor Fravel
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Whether China will abandon its long-standing nuclear strategy of assured retaliation for a first-use posture will be a critical factor in U.S.-China strategic stability. In recent years, the United States has been developing strategic capabilities such as missile defenses and conventional long-range strike capabilities that could reduce the effectiveness of China's deterrent. Writings by Chinese strategists and analysts, however, indicate that China is unlikely to abandon its current nuclear strategy.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and East Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS