Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Turkey / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 5 Years / Journal:

1. Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer. On January 9, the UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 2672 extending the provision of cross-border humanitarian aid into northwest Syria for another six months. In the immediate term, the vote is good news for Syrian civilians suffering through one of their worst energy crises since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. But the main problem persists—absent an alternative mechanism outside the Security Council, cross-border aid will remain bound to Russia’s increasing political and security demands in Syria, which are ultimately tied to the situation in Ukraine as well. Many were surprised by Moscow’s decision to approve the new resolution. Over the years, Russia has repeatedly threatened to veto previous resolutions, and the West has largely given in to its demands by steadily diluting the aid mechanism. From that perspective, this month’s vote appeared to be a welcome sign of the Biden administration’s willingness to stand its ground on Syria despite dealing with a complex Russian challenge in Ukraine. Moscow did not even resort to its frequent tactic of abstaining from the final vote in order to signal its displeasure with the mechanism.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, UN Security Council, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

2. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities

Author:: Nurhan Yentürk, Berkay Hacımustafa, Yakup Kadri Karabacak, Ezgi Ediboğlu Sakowsky, and Işık Baştuğ
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This study firstly aims to classify the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in the 2022 performance programs of the 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) with the highest expenditures in Turkey and their affiliated institutions (AF) (water and sewerage departments and transportation administrations) according to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other environmental goals and to examine the budget allocated to these targets. The study, also, evaluates the pros and cons of the budgets allocated by the 14 metropolitan municipalities to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other goals and develops concrete policy recommendations for areas in which budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Crisis Management, Sustainability, Public Spending, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

3. Unravelling Turkish involvement in the Sahel: Geopolitics and local impact

Author:: Andrew Lebovich and Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In the past decade, Turkey has significantly expanded its engagement in Africa, leading to concerns within the European Union (EU) that this influence might be used to undermine EU policy and member states. This policy brief analyses the strategic motives and evolution of Turkish involvement in the Sahel region, focusing specifically on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Drawing from interviews conducted with Sahelian and Turkish political, business, diplomatic and educational stakeholders between October and December 2022, the authors contend that Turkey’s foreign policy in the Sahel demonstrates a multifaceted approach that aims to strengthen its presence across economic, cultural, defence and development spheres. However, it is also emphasised that Turkey’s engagement in the Sahel remains relatively limited when compared to its activities in other African countries, for example Libya, Somalia and Algeria. In light of these findings, this policy brief recommends that the EU adopt a pragmatic approach, drawing lessons from Turkey’s strategy while trying to manage, and where possible benefit from, the impact of Turkish security assistance and to foster opportunities for Sahelian populations in Europe through scholarships and employment initiatives.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and Sahel

4. Turkey Earthquake: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

5. Even Chances: Defining Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:: Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

6. Erdogan wins the presidency: Causes, implications and horizons

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:: Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

7. A post-Western global order in the making? Foreign policy goals of India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa

Author:: Sinikukka Saari, Toni Alaranta, Bart Gaens, Katariina Mustasilta, and Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are striving for a more multipolar, post-Western world order in which they would not be seen merely as auxiliary powers to the bigger players, but as independent great powers. For them, a key foreign policy goal is to transform global governance institutions. They all call for a permanent seat for their country on the UN Security Council. To achieve that, the states need backing from more than the Western states – and this logically strengthens the multi-aligned logic of their foreign policies. India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa see Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the Western countermeasures from their own perspective. They describe Russia’s invasion as a violation of international law, but see the war primarily as a Western concern, not theirs. Although these states are critical towards the West, they are not anti-Western and they all value multilateral institutions; their foreign policy goals and features offer opportunities for the EU to engage with them, but that needs to happen on a more equal footing than what has traditionally been the case.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, UN Security Council, Multipolarity, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, India, Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

8. Outlining EU-Turkey relations: The impacts of the Ukraine war and Turkey’s crucial elections

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Turkey-EU relations are affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine and its consequences for the EU’s place in the world. Another major factor is Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections held in May, which are defining the prospects for the country’s democratic future and its foreign policy. The second round of the presidential election took place on 28 May. The re-election of President Erdoğan indicates that the unilateral foreign policy and strained relationship with the West is likely to continue, although there is a chance of a short-term burst of cooperation due to Turkey’s economic troubles. There are increasingly divergent views about Turkey in the West, and the EU’s future relationship with Turkey needs to accommodate these different conceptualizations of the country as a state actor. The EU needs to be flexible in the coming months and to find ways to engage with Turkey in a more fruitful manner, irrespective of the election results.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

9. Escape from the Syrian Labyrinth: A Road Map

Author:: Michael Doran and Omer Ozkizilcik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The Ukraine war has led Americans to rediscover what first drew them, some seven decades ago, into a military alliance with the Turks: Turkey’s indispensability as a counterweight to Russia. However, even as Washington and Ankara have found common cause in Ukraine, they continue to work at cross purposes in Syria. In a demonstration of bold, fresh, and practical thinking, Turkish scholar Ömer Özkizilcik offers us a road map for aligning American and Turkish policies there too. But first, to set the stage for Özkizilcik’s plan, Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Doran surveys the strategic logic and the diplomatic context that make the road map compulsory reading.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

10. Opening the Global Gateway: Why the EU should invest more in the southern neighbourhood

Author:: Alberto Rizzi and Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The southern neighbourhood should be a key focus for the EU’s Global Gateway infrastructure programme – but the bloc has so far directed relatively little of its investment to the region. Strategic goals for the EU in the Mediterranean include promoting ‘nearshoring’ to shorten key supply chains including of energy; and improving regional connectivity, decarbonising economic activity, and creating jobs. The EU can propose more attractive investment offers than China and other players. The Global Gateway’s use of grants rather than loans is central to this. Going beyond investments, the EU should promote inclusive growth by sharing technical know-how and supporting training to enhance the skills of workforces in the region. Protecting physical connections is of great importance. The EU should work hand in hand with southern neighbours to monitor Global Gateway-funded infrastructure.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and North Africa

11. From aid to inclusion: A better way to help Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan

Author:: Kelly Petillo
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The number of Syrian refugees attempting to enter Europe has doubled in the last two years. This shift is driven by growing hostility towards Syrian refugees in host states Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Governments in these countries are ratcheting up the political rhetoric and deploying new ways to force Syrians to return. Home-grown economic and social pressures, and problems caused by the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, contribute to these tensions. Europeans’ support for Syrian refugees remains humanitarian-led and short-termist. The EU and its member states should switch to a longer-term ‘inclusion’ approach that helps Syrians live in dignity in their host countries. This new approach would also benefit local communities, as well as discourage Syrians from making the dangerous journey to Europe.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Syrian War, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan

12. Nuclear energy and proliferation in Turkey’s Asian Politics

Author:: Eliza Gheorghe
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The share of nuclear power in Asia’s electricity generating capacity has grown significantly over the last two decades. China is one of the dominant players in Asia, developing a robust nuclear power program. In the Middle East, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have introduced nuclear power into the region, with Turkey planning to follow in their footsteps in 2023. The adoption of nuclear power spurs concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear latency. Some countries use their civilian nuclear programs to develop a robust infrastructure that allows them to acquire nuclear weapons in a relatively short period of time. Such dynamics are likely to have a destabilizing effect on international affairs in the Middle East and Asia. The current international situation makes it unlikely that the nuclear non-proliferation regime will become stronger in the near future. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the need for a new generation of negative security assurances and collective defense that protects countries from nuclear blackmail.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Politics, Electricity, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

13. “Scent of a woman”: Women as a crucial factor in the upcoming Turkish elections

Author:: Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The female vote is one of the decisive factors in the 14 May elections. The government coalition now includes parties with highly problematic views on women and women’s rights. Housewives comprise the AKP’s female stronghold, but the tide is changing. Women in Turkey are unhappy, anxious and pessimistic.
Topic:: Elections, Women, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

14. “The Youth of a Nation are the trustees of posterity ” How younger generations can shape Turkey through the upcoming Turkish elections

Author:: Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Half of the 64.1 million voters will be young people born after 1997. Young generations are de facto secularized and want change. Youth support for the AKP is dwindling steadily, while its support of the continue to rise. Young people in Turkey are navigating hybrid new identities.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Youth
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

15. Autocratization vs. democratization: The new framework for understanding political competition in Turkey in view of the elections and beyond

Author:: Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The traditional “Kemalist vs. Islamist” divide is being replaced by authoritarianism vs. democratization. The antagonism between authoritarian statism and democratization will decide the future of the country. The current Opposition reflects the profound social need for change and democratization. AKP and MHP voters have far more hard-line nationalist and less democratic attitudes than supporters of the opposition parties.
Topic:: Democratization, Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

16. Turkey’s new Cabinet: intellectuals and ‘men of state’ as Erdoğan’s operatives – Evangelos Areteos

Author:: Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: “Erdoğanism” has emerged as the dominant trend in Turkey’s political evolution. Intellectuals as men of state predominate among Erdoğan’s high-ranking civil servants. The shaping and management of narratives are the key factors behind Erdoğan’s success. The new Cabinet will guide Turkey towards the fulfillment of the “Century of Türkiye” through a combination of soft and hard power.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

17. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

18. Turkish Backlash: How Street Interviews Spread Anti–Syrian Refugee Sentiment

Author:: Sude Akgundogdu
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In early February, two major earthquakes shook Turkey’s southeast, as well as parts of Syria, claiming at least 45,000 Turkish lives in what has become the biggest natural disaster in modern Turkish history. The country’s most pressing challenge is to provide relief for the more than 13 million citizens who live in areas directly affected by the tremors. In the meantime, however, in addition to exposing egregious zoning and building code violations, the powerful quakes have revealed new dimensions of anti-Syrian feeling in Turkey. In the days that followed, gruesome videos circulated on social media showing vigilantes battering individuals they accused of looting in the affected provinces. Syrian refugees have seen their noncitizen status exacerbated by local resentment, resulting in limited access to earthquake relief resources; they have likewise been especially vulnerable to the vigilantism. “Looting” and “Syrian” have become synonymous in some corners of social media, fueling public resentment centered on the refugee population. But hate directed at Syrians on the Turkish web is nothing new. Turkey has seen an overall uptick in anti-refugee violence since 2021, often targeting Syrians. In a particularly violent episode in August 2021, residents of the Altindag district in Ankara vandalized and looted Syrian-run businesses and homes. Across 2022 and into 2023, even before the earthquakes, hate crimes against Syrians have continued to increase. Turkey hosts at least 4 million refugees—3.7 million of them Syrian nationals or stateless people who have migrated from Syria. This is an almost 5 percent addition to Turkey’s existing population, which stood at about 74 million before their arrival, making it the largest influx to Turkey since the Balkan Wars of 1912–13, amid the Ottoman Empire’s collapse. Since the Syrian war began in 2011, the Turkish government has welcomed large numbers of Syrian refugees and given them “temporary protected status.” While the public in general welcomed them, since Turkey fell into recession in 2018, tolerance has worn thin. This public unease has found expression in a media trend known as “street interviews,” which simultaneously spread intolerance and misinformation regarding Turkey’s Syrian refugee population. By way of context, the Turkish government has cracked down on conventional media over the past decade and a half, giving loyal media a monopoly on information and pushing Turkish citizens to seek alternative sources of news. Creative new initiatives have emerged as a result, some anchored in social media, and while these can fill gaps and contribute in meaningful ways, some, such as street interviews, are quasi-journalistic and can disseminate dangerous messages. If the Turkish government does not ease its hold over the media, other such trends will likely persist and continue shaping public opinion, hurting chiefly Turkey’s vulnerable Syrian population.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Refugees, Discrimination, Syrian War, and Hate Speech
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

19. Disaster Dynamics: Assessing Middle East Responses to the Turkey-Syria Earthquake and Other Destructive Events

Author:: Sarah Cahn and Erik Yavorsky
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The massive earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria as of February 28—one of the worst Middle East natural disasters in recent memory—has touched the hearts of leaders and peoples across the world, triggering a flow of urgently needed humanitarian support. Regional states, too, have provided rescue and relief assistance. From the outset, however, politics has played an important role in shaping the scope and direction of such aid. In fact, the politics of humanitarian aid follows a pattern discernible based on previous regional responses to crises, including the 2020 Beirut port explosion and—before it—the 2014 Gaza war.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Foreign Aid, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

20. Turkey’s Growing Ukrainian and Russian Communities

Author:: Sude Akgundogdu and Collin Trissel
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since the 1990s, Turkey has become a major destination for tourists and migrants from Ukraine, Russia, and other former Soviet states. Yet Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine set into motion an even greater wave of migrants from both countries. Those fleeing the crisis have used myriad channels to enter and remain in Turkey, from obtaining “golden visas” to applying for protection. Going forward, their presence could have a sizable effect on future socioeconomic ties between the three countries.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

21. After the February 6 Earthquakes: A Critical Overview of the Legal and Administrative Framework

Author:: Akif Burak Atlar
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief assesses urban vulnerability to earthquake risk in relation to legal and administrative interventions that have occurred on building supervision, zoning amnesties and emergency management since the August 17, 1999 earthquake, and offers policy recommendations to reduce this vulnerability.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Governance, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

22. Society and State in Turkey Between Two Disasters

Author:: Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief assesses the responses of the central government, municipalities, civil society organisations and grassroots communities in the aftermath of the 1999 and 2023 earthquakes in the context of the changes in Turkey’s political and administrative life between these two crises.
Topic:: Civil Society, Natural Disasters, Governance, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey

23. The Responsibility of Business to Respect Human Rights

Author:: Özlem Zıngıl
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief provides a frame of reference and recommendations on the responsibility of business to respect human rights, based on the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and current examples.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, Business, Accountability, Transparency, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

24. The Impact of Digital Policy Tools on Local Democracy

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief analyses how the digital policy tool My Purple Map, developed by TESEV in cooperation with UN Women Turkey and Eskişehir Metropolitan Municipality, has impacted a local government and puts forward a number of recommendations as to how this impact can be further broadened for a stronger local democracy.
Topic:: United Nations, Democracy, Inequality, Digital Policy, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

25. The Black Sea, the spectre of a new Iron Curtain?

Author:: Radu Magdin
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: For thousands of years, the Black Sea has been a place of meetings and exchange. It has often been the natural border between empires. Now, together with the Baltic Sea, it is the place where East and West, the United States (through NATO), the European Union, Turkey and Russia still meet on open terrain.
Topic:: NATO, History, European Union, Geopolitics, Borders, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, United States of America, and Black Sea

26. Greco-Turkish relations at their lowest ebb

Author:: Alexia Kefalas
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: What really happened on 6th October in Prague? This question has been on the minds of European analysts since the dinner held in the Czech capital on the side-lines of the first summit meeting of the European Political Community. Versions vary between the international press and the 44 heads of state and government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

27. Turkish Foreign Policy and the EU An Everlasting Candidate Between Delusion and Realities

Author:: Jean-Francois Drevet
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The relationship between Turkey and the European Union has never been easy. It is now affected by the activism of Ankara’s foreign policy, conducted in disregard of international law. Turkey remains, however, an important partner for the EU, as it is still officially a candidate for membership (since 1987) and in the Customs Union (since 1995). It impacts the EU, both in its internal (immigration, trade, other common policies) and external policies (through its gunboat diplomacy against two Member States (Greece and Cyprus) and countries eligible to the European Neighbourhood Policy). Moreover, the impact of the war in Ukraine will affect relations between Brussels and Ankara. In the face of Turkish activism, the EU lacks the capacity to anticipate and react, a problem that concerns not only its relations with Turkey, but its overall neighbourhood and association relations with its periphery. In the framework of the work on the neighbourhoods of the European Union (EU) carried out by the Institute for European Studies of the University of Saint-Louis and following its Annual Conference, with the aim of contributing to a better account of the Union’s relations with its periphery, the working group “Turkey” presents its elements of analysis in the run-up to 2023, which will be marked both by the centenary of the Republic and by long-awaited elections. Although much of this work was done before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine (24 February 2022), it has lost none of its relevance. One might even think that a stronger EU attitude towards Turkey in 2018-2020 might have made the Kremlin think twice. Faced with Turkish bellicosity in the eastern Mediterranean, the weakness of European reactions may have convinced Moscow that it could act with impunity against a country that is a member of neither the EU nor NATO.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

28. Turkey in Central Asia: Possibilities and limits of a greater role

Author:: Toni Alaranta and Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Turkey’s long-term search for strategic autonomy, shifting global power relations, and Central Asian governments’ desire to foster multi-vector foreign policies have prompted Turkey to successfully intensify its activities in Central Asia. From the 1990s onwards, Turkey’s activism in Central Asia has strengthened cultural, trade, and diplomatic relations. Its multilateral coordinating body, the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, is being further institutionalized into the Organization of Turkic States. Turkey’s potential for acquiring a greater role in the region is limited. Its economic engagement remains modest, and Central Asian states’ responses to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan indicate that Russia and China remain the region’s preferred security partners. Although Turkey, China, Russia, and other external actors compete in Central Asia, no full-fledged confrontation has taken place in the region so far. Turkey’s new initiatives are unlikely to change this dynamic, as long as they are conducted in the spirit of inclusive multipolarity.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, and Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Asia

29. NATO’s Nordic enlargement and Turkey’s reservations: Trilateral Memorandum of Understanding in the context of Turkey’s wider strategic interests

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With the signing of the trilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Turkey dropped its initial objection to Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership, but has since argued that the conditions agreed in the MoU have not yet been fulfilled. In addition to requiring Sweden and Finland to take a more vigorous stance regarding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its extension in Syria, Turkey has used Nordic NATO applications as a tool to raise these issues on NATO’s agenda, pressuring the US in particular for a change in its Syria policy. Turkey’s reservations need to be conceptualized within its determined search for strategic autonomy, increased room for manoeuvre, and an ideological decoupling from the West. Turkey’s strategic interests have increasingly diverged from the rest of the alliance, likely leading to a more permanent intra-alliance opposition position in the coming years, part of which are the ongoing trilateral talks between Turkey, Finland and Sweden.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and North America

30. Youth Politics and Activism in Turkey

Author:: Bahar Baser
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Media outlets and polling companies have started publishing reports that claim the young people’s vote will be a game-changer in the upcoming elections. It is Generation Z, the so-called millennials, who are going to make a political statement with their vote in the Turkish elections. They constitute a sizeable portion of the eligible voters (20%) and around half of them will be casting their votes for the first time (RIS Report, 2022). Whether we are talking about Generation X, Y or Z, young people do not constitute a monolithic bloc in Turkey. The country is polarised along different ethnic, religious and ideological fault lines, and so is its youth. This is reflected in their activism, as well as their everyday lives. Turkish youth became an object of scrutiny for researchers during and after the Gezi protests and their repertoires of action and political participation were analysed by researchers both in and outside Turkey. However, new systematic studies are needed if the results the polling companies are receiving with regard to young people’s preferences and lifestyle choices in a changing Turkey are to be explained. Evidence shows that wooing youth support features on the parties’ political agendas. Strategies include investing in youth branches, organising events and festivals, as well as creating opportunities for young people, to keep them loyal to the party agendas. Do young people only express their frustration with the system through demonstrations on the streets or social media posts? No: young people are also leaving the country in protest. My recent research reveals that a sizeable group of young people tend to plan for futures outside Turkey, and that they would take any opportunity that presented itself abroad in order to leave the country permanently or temporarily.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Youth, and Activism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

31. Alcohol consumption in modern Turkey: Kulturkampf and polarization

Author:: Evangelos Areteos and Christina Kapodistria
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Α culture war (Kulturkampf) is raging in Turkey, and alcohol is one of the major fronts once again. Opposing cultural identities are emerging as a powerful instrument of polarization. The ongoing culture war is revealing the AKP’s potential, but also its limits.
Topic:: Religion, Culture, Alcohol, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

32. Democratic-values against authoritarianism? In the end it will be [again] the economy, stupid!

Author:: Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Opposition parties around the world (e.g., in Hungary, Poland, Brazil and Turkey) have started to form alliances against authoritarian and illiberal leaders. The introduction of a presidential system in Turkey in 2018 made political parties join forces, since 50+1% would be needed to win the presidential elections. Since May 2018, first four and now six opposition parties have formed the so-called “Millet [Nation] Alliance”; almost all the polls place the Alliance well ahead of the government AKP-MHP alliance. In 2019, Millet Alliance candidates were able to win the municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara. In May 2022, the Millet Alliance published ten clear, value-based principles, ranging from non-discrimination to freedom of the press, religion and thought through to the independence of the judiciary. The parties of the Millet Alliance are not remembered for defending democratic values in the past, but will they now? On topics like the Kurdish issue or refugees, the Millet Alliance is often harsher and more exclusionary than the government. However, the economic situation and the candidate put forward by the Millet Alliance More will be more decisive for the elections than a debate over values. Turkey does not have a choice between black and white, but rather between different shades of gray
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

33. Why Turkey’s Gender Inequality Matters

Author:: Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Women’s underrepresentation in Turkey’s public life is a persistent and long-lasting phenomenon, despite the socio-economic progress achieved over the last two decades. Some indicators suggest that the problem has been getting worse in recent years, and Turkey’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention in 2021 has compounded fears of a further deterioration. Discrimination against women is not only normatively wrong, it is also practically self-defeating, since it deprives the country of resources, talent and expertise it needs to raise prosperity levels. However, women’s organizations in Turkey are numerous, visible and persistent in their demands for genuine equality and an end to discrimination. To address key aspects of the problem, such as record low female employment rates, Turkey needs to return to high-level, sustainable growth and promote female entrepreneurship.
Topic:: Women, Inequality, Discrimination, Representation, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

34. Media and Democratic Backsliding – Lessons from the Turkish Case

Author:: Eylem Yanardağoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: There has been a global trend towards democratic backsliding in various new and established democracies across the world since the 2010s. The Freedom House Freedom in the World report for 2022 noted that there have now been 15 consecutive years of decline in global freedom and that the long democratic recession is deepening. In Turkey, the AKP came to power in 2002 at a time marked by a relatively pro-European Union and pluralistic outlook in politics. The democratic backsliding in Turkey has been more obvious since 2007 and the start of the AKP’s second term in power. It deepened especially after the 2016 coup attempt and the transition to a presidential system in 2017. This democratic regression has also impacted on the media sector globally, especially through various coercive and non-coercive media capture strategies. Media concentration has been ongoing in many countries for many decades with a concomitant negative impact on media freedom, leading to a gradual decline in free and independent media. Current forms of media capture are considered more impactful than earlier methods, due to the rise of business structures that operate in tandem with state authorities to capture media outlets. In Turkey, and across those countries in which media capture is prevalent, the mainstream media is vanishing as a result of polarization; two distinct journalisms are emerging in their place, one of which is based on a propaganda model and erodes media and press freedom.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, AKP, Polarization, Freedom of Press, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

35. Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia: The Effect of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey’s position in a “post-Western world” is widely debated as Asia emerges as the world’s new demographic and economic focal point. Turkey’s drive for strategic autonomy is crucial to all considerations of Eurasianism as a result of the rise of emerging powers worldwide and the transition to a multipolar international system. The emergence of a revisionist Russia, threatening to destroy the global order in place since the end of the Cold War, sent out a powerful warning to its neighbors, including Turkey. Russian-Turkish relations have not been shaped by shared identity, interest and threat perceptions; instead, they have remained largely instrumental and driven by necessity. The Turkish government cannot afford consistency in its discourse on Turkey as the “protector of the oppressed” when it comes to defending Uyghur rights against the Chinese regime. Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian aggression refuted Turkish Eurasianist claims that Ukraine was “helpless” and that the West had entered a “serious and irreversible decline”.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

36. Nationalism, enmity and reconciliation: Turkish party supporters’ polarized views on Greece

Author:: Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Supporters of the current government in Turkey have significantly stronger nationalistic attitudes towards Greece and Greeks than the supporters of the opposition parties. Turkey is extremely polarized along party lines. Religion and education significantly shape perceptions in both Turkey and Greece. In Greece, the levels of nationalism towards Turkey are significantly higher than they are in Turkey towards Greece, but vary far less across the political spectrum.
Topic:: Nationalism, Public Opinion, Reconciliation, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

37. New Dynamics, Old Problems: Turkey’s Rapprochement Overtures in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Over the past year Turkey has slowly worked to reduce tensions with regional rivals, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. There are limits to how far this process can go. It may produce détente but not a deeper realignment. Even though it has not led to elections, the ceasefire and ensuing political process in Libya have benefited and benefited from this reduction in tensions. Western governments should support any steps that lessen the risk of military conflict, but should not offer concessions to Ankara in pursuit of this goal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, and Mediterranean

38. Arab Syrian IDPs of Tal Rifaat also Want to Go Home

Author:: Rena Netjes
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The involvement of Turkish military forces in Northern Syria could allow thousands of Syrians to return to their homes after being forced out by the YPG, the SDF, and other entities for many years. In the West, there has been strong opposition to a newly planned Turkish/Syrian National Army (SNA) military operation in northern Syria. Yet for many displaced Arabs from Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and the surrounding villages, they are welcoming the idea of the liberation of their towns and villages. In fact, they have been asking the Turkish-backed SNA to liberate their area for years. Outside articles often focus exclusively on the Kurdish residents of northern Syria and emphasize that another military operation will automatically mean displacement of the Kurdish population. Yet the area constitutes a mix of Arab and Kurd-dominated towns, and Arab residents have their own history of displacement. In 2016, the entire Arab population was displaced in Tal Rifaat, a (historically) majority Arab town on the west side of the Euphrates, in a coordinated military operation by Russia, the Syrian regime, and militants from the People’s Defense Units (YPG) from Afrin. The YPG also attempted to connect the majority Kurdish enclaves of Kobani and Afrin through majority Arab areas, triggering a refugee flow of Arabs mainly from the two towns and surrounding villages to the Turkish border.
Topic:: Syrian War, Internal Displacement, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Military
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Tal Rifaat

39. Local Governance of the Demographic Transition Process in Turkey: Aging Society and Urban Policies

Author:: Mehmet Şahin
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Demographic transition theory was developed in Europe as a result of the long-term monitoring of birth and death rates. While Turkey has been going through this process with its specific dynamics as a part of the demographic transition process, it is commonly said that as distinct from other countries of the world, it has a young and dynamic population, which is perceived as an advantage over other countries. This demographic imagination, which is desired to be seen as an advantage, functions as some kind of a moral support against unfavorable developments, socioeconomic crises, and unexpected failures.
Topic:: Demographics, Governance, Aging, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

40. Why Should Turkey Comply With The Global Climate Regime?

Author:: Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: It is clear that Turkish economy is in need of a new trajectory. Under the current circumstances, it is not possible to offer jobs and hope to young people, and a secure future to the society. Therefore, it is necessary to reverse this vicious circle with a well-designed transformation program in an attempt to establish a durable and promising economic structure.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Economy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

41. Increasing Vulnerability of Female Labor Force and Deepening Gender Inequalities During The Covid-19 Outbreak

Author:: Deniz Beyazbulut
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This study aims to examine women’s unemployment and its course during the pandemic period by making use of Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TÜİK’s) Household Labor Force Survey data (HIA), reports prepared by the Research Center of the Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions of Turkey (DİSK-AR) on Unemployment and Employment Outlook, and International Labour Organization’s (ILO) World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2021. In the study, gender inequalities, which have intensified with the increase in women’s domestic work and care burdens with the pandemic, will also be discussed.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Inequality, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

42. Turkey’s Eurasian ambitions at a time of geopolitical uncertainty

Author:: Sinem Adar
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Russia’s increasingly salient weaknesses in its war against Ukraine have unsettled what was a delicate balance in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. Turkey is trying to reap the benefits of this unsettled situation by further intensifying cooperation with a region that it has long considered kin to itself due to linguistic and cultural affinities. These efforts dovetail with rehabilitation attempts of an ever-worsening Turkish economy in the face of an upcoming election in 2023 of historical decisiveness. Beyond these immediate triggers, lurking underneath Ankara’s renewed interest in the region is the post-Cold War strategic ambition to position Turkey as a logistics and energy hub connecting Europe and Asia. Yet skepticism within Europe over Ankara’s strategic orientation at a time of intense geopolitical confrontation and competition abounds. As such, it is necessary to soberly think about Turkey’s place within an emerging Eurasian space and the costs and benefits of engaging with Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

43. Beyond Turkey’s ‘zero problems’ policy Motives, means and impact of the interventions in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen and Bob Deen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, but especially after the failed coup d’état in 2016, Turkey’s foreign policy has shifted from ‘zero problems’ to the pursuit of strategic depth and autonomy in its neighbourhood. In 2020, Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus became three theatres for Ankara’s new hard-power tactics, a policy that may well be here to stay (at least until the elections in 2023). This policy brief explores the strategic motives, the means of intervention and the impact of Turkish operations in these three conflict areas. While Turkey’s strategic considerations, modalities and consequences vary greatly from case to case, certain parallels can be drawn. They reveal an overall pattern of a much more assertive Turkey that is increasingly willing to deploy a combination of political and military means to secure its strategic objectives in its immediate neighbourhood.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Libya, Syria, and South Caucasus

44. Turkish interventions in its near abroad: The case of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Author:: Erwin van Veen and Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The primary objective of Turkey’s recent interventions in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is to cut the Gordian knot of its own Kurdish question by engaging the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates militarily until they no longer control any territory. To this end, it is essential that Ankara maintains Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – and especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – as a junior and compliant partner. A secondary Turkish objective is to balance Iran’s influence in Iraq’s disputed territories, mainly by acting as protector of Turkmen and Sunni groups. In the background, the Turkish Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) desire to maintain regime stability at home plays an important role since its alliance with the ultranationalist-conservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and some of its domestic legitimacy depends on the success of Turkish interventions into the KRI. Such interventions have historical precedent, but their scope and scale have increased significantly since 2018, with the effect that Ankara has been able to force the PKK into a defensive position. This has been achieved at the cost of the KDP’s popular legitimacy, an increase in PKK popularity and significant collateral damage among ordinary Iraqi (Kurdish) citizens. Further intensification of Turkish interventions into Sinjar, the Nineveh Plains or Sulaymaniyah will lead to greater tensions with both Baghdad and Iran. An extension of UNAMI’s security sector reform work to include border control can help prevent further conflict escalation by inserting a more neutral actor into this volatile situation.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

45. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

46. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of northern Cyprus

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The primary objective of Ankara’s recent political and military interventions in northern Cyprus is to use the island as the linchpin for its maritime ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean in terms of the geo-economics of claiming and exploring the hydrocarbon resources around the island and expanding its naval power more broadly. Turkey recently upgraded the military utility of the island in line with its Blue Homeland naval doctrine as one track towards realising its primary objective. Another track consists of Ankara politically empowering Turkish Cypriots who advocate for a two-state solution. In doing so, Turkey aims to maintain the status quo, which it views as a ‘two-states-on-one-island’ situation that brings northern Cyprus under increasing Turkish control and pulls it out of the EU’s orbit. In the process, it suppresses the views of advocates of re-unification in northern Cyprus. The EU also stands to lose as the prospect of settling the Cyprus question via a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation – its preferred option – fades from sight.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Turkey, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

47. Development Competition is Heating Up: China’s Global Development Initiative and the G7 Partnership for Infrastructure and Global Alliance on Food Security

Author:: Sarah Cliffe and Karina Gerlach
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Economic development issues are becoming increasingly geopolitical, as the form and importance of today’s agreement in Turkey on grain exports between Russia and Ukraine demonstrates. While today’s crucial agreement and the war of food security narratives between Russia and the West rightly grab the latest headlines, outside of the media spotlight development competition is also heating up between China and the West.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Food Security, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine

48. Acts of normality: The potential for Turkey-Armenia rapprochement

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia created an unexpected opportunity for Turkey and Armenia to normalise their relationship. For nearly a century, Turkey and Armenia have had almost no relationship and a closed border due to the legacy of the Armenian genocide, the cold war, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But both countries now feel it is in their interest to normalise the relationship and open the border – not least to promote trade and to balance against Russian influence in the region. In recent months, Turkey and Armenia have increased the pace of this normalisation by opening air corridors, appointing special representatives, and initiating direct bilateral negotiations over the re-establishment of diplomatic relations and reopening the border. This process is a rare example of a positive sea change – and is likely to be one of the few bright spots in an increasingly unstable and competitive international order.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Normalization, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh

49. Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Turkey has spent much of the past decade trying to expand its influence and remake the Middle East in its own image. This created a major battle line between the country and its rivals that stretched from Libya to Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Yet, since mid-2021, Turkey has attempted to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern countries. This shift has been driven by Turkish domestic politics, the emergence of a multipolar Middle East, and intensifying geopolitical competition. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains politically vulnerable at home, with a deteriorating economy and the opposition leading in the polls. His government’s survival now depends on efforts to balance between great powers and draw financing from former rivals in the Gulf. The EU needs to adjust to this new Turkey by supporting the regional normalisation process, managing the Kurdish issue, and accepting that the country could join an expanded European community – albeit while retaining its strategic autonomy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

50. Implications of Israel and Turkey’s diplomatic thaw on Israel’s Mediterranean Policy

Author:: Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This document focuses on the challenges and opportunities for Israel’s policy in the Mediterranean Basin as a result of its warming relations with Turkey. It covers the main points raised at the 11th meeting of the Research and Policy Group on Israel in the Mediterranean Basin conducted on May 24, 2022, at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, Hebrew University’s Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement among all discussion participants. The warming relations between Israel and Turkey
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

51. Mutual Aims: Turkish-Iranian targeting of Iraq’s Kurds

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey and Iran, in recent months, have increased their strikes on areas occupied by Kurds in Iraq. The Turkish Air Force, on November 20, announced intense airstrikes, dubbed Operation Claw-Sword, targeting Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Army positions in Northern Syria and against Kurdistan Workers’ Party positions in Northern Iraq. Iran, at the same time, intensified its missile and drone strikes on locations that belong to Kurdish opposition parties, which Tehran claims to have been supporting the latest demonstrations across the country since September this year. The timing of these strikes raises questions about the intention of both regimes and the timing of their targeting of Kurdish rebels in Iraq.
Topic:: Minorities, Kurds, Strategic Interests, and Military Alignment
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

52. The Hurriyet Leaks: Ankara ceasing opportunity for rapprochement with Damascus

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In a recent report published by Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, unnamed sources have said Ankara is mulling over opportunities to facilitate a dialogue with the Syrian government. Sources at the Syrian Foreign Ministry have strongly denied such reports however, labelling them as mere political red herring, as Turkey’s presidential elections loom on the horizon.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Syrian War, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

53. The 2023 Turkish elections: An unmarked road

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

54. Post-Kemalism and the Future of Turkish Governance – Nicholas Danforth

Author:: Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Disillusionment with Erdoğan and the AKP after 2013 has reshaped the study of Turkish politics and history, leading scholars to focus on new themes and new periods. Comparative approaches, political economy and a newfound interest in the Cold War have offered a more nuanced understanding of Turkish authoritarianism. Post-Kemalism remain more popular in the U.S. and Europe than in Turkey.
Topic:: Governance, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

55. Germany’s New Government Coalition: A Red, Yellow or Green Light for German-Turkish Relations?

Author:: Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: After the national elections of 26 September 2021, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed for the first time in German history a three-party coalition. The new chancellor is Olaf Scholz (SPD), while the minister of foreign affairs is a woman, Annalena Baerbock (Greens), for the first time. The coalition agreement mentions Turkey only as an “important neighbor of the EU” and speaks of “worrying domestic political developments and foreign policy tensions.” During the election campaign, the Greens and Baerbock spoke of a value-based foreign policy guided by human rights, ecological issues and democratic standards would be guiding principles. Baerbock has been critical of Turkey: after it left the Istanbul Convention, for instance, or over the refugee deal and “violations of human rights and the rule of law.” The Greens remain the only party in the Bundestag, which still views the revival of Turkey’s EU accession process as a possibility. The Greens, and the FDP in particular, want to intensify exchanges between the two countries with civil society and youth exchange programs. The new Bundestag is the most diverse ever, with more German-Turks in parliament than ever before (18/19), and a German-Turk holding a ministerial position (agriculture) for the first time. Greens and FDP voters expect a harsher stance on countries like Turkey: a pragmatic approach à la Merkel would disappoint them. The future of bilateral relations will also depend on how cooperative or confrontational a position Turkey adopts. A best-case scenario is also possible: the next elections put a reformist government in power in Turkey, which will then be supported by the new German administration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey and Germany

56. Will the EU’s positive agenda on Turkey amount to anything more than wishful thinking?

Author:: Amanda Paul
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: One year on, it remains to be seen whether the EU’s positive agenda (PA), an effort to establish a new modus vivendi with Turkey, will bear fruit. Turkey is one of the EU’s most important neighbours and a crucial partner on numerous issues, including migration, counterterrorism, energy and trade. Yet relations have always been challenging, with honeymoon periods few and far between. Bickering and animosity have become the norm. In 2020, escalating disputes in areas from human rights to maritime claims and military interventions brought the relations to a major crisis. Looking ahead, Ankara’s domestic and foreign policy ahead of crucial elections in 2023 (or earlier), the Cyprus problem, Germany’s leadership change, the 2022 French presidential election and Paris taking over the EU Council Presidency will all impact relations. Amanda Paul gives a concise state of play of EU-Turkey relations, what we can expect and what should be avoided, and areas for improvement. While Turkish membership of the EU seems highly unlikely, neither Ankara nor the EU is ready to call it quits. With no functioning accession process, EU–Turkey relations need a new framework that reduces the chances of further rupture and creates a new dynamic. Implementing the PA should be the starting point of this framework. In which case, the EU should consider the following four recommendations: green-light the talks to update the Customs Union; enhance migration dialogue; continue support for Turkish civil society and independent journalism; and revitalise foreign policy dialogue. 2022 will likely be a testing year. If the two parties are to move away from years of distrust and muddling through, they will have to exhibit political will and acquire a truly strategic vision for the future.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Migration, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean

57. The Eastern Mediterranean conflict: From Turkey-Greece confrontation to regional power struggles

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: For several decades, the Eastern Mediterranean confict consisted of a three-part struggle over territorial wa- ters, sovereignty and exclusionary national narratives between Turkey, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus. Its origins can be traced as far back as the Greek War of Independence in the 1830s, the Lausanne Peace Trea- ty determining the current borders of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, and the failed bicommunal federal state established in Cyprus in 1960. Regarding the Cyprus confict, the best – but ultimately lost – opportunity to resolve the issue was the 2004 Annan Plan for a bicom- munal federal state. Today, the Eastern Mediterranean confict is a multi-level and multi-actor power strug- gle that is unlikely to wane any time soon. In addition to Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus, it also includes actors such as France, Italy, Libya, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Tis Briefng Paper frst identifes the main actors involved, and then proceeds to analyze the key de- terminants of the confict. Te paper concludes that tension in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue in the foreseeable future. A full military confrontation is unlikely, however, as NATO can provide a necessary platform for a Greece-Turkey de-escalation. Tis is likely to prevent an actual war, but will not be enough to produce any lasting solution in the increasingly confict-ridden Eastern Mediterranean regional power struggle.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

58. Turkey’s relations with the US and the EU at the beginning of the Biden presidency: Prospects for change?

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: US-Turkey ties are strained because of conflicting interests in Syria and on a more fundamental level due to Turkey’s different interpretation of the ongoing global power shift, and its concurrent search for strategic autonomy and cooperation with Russia and China. EU-Turkey ties have long been dysfunctional, with the EU focusing on maintaining the refugee deal, while Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian and aggressive in its external relations, resulting in a permanent ‘wait-and-see’ approach by the EU. While the US and the EU have recently agreed that they should synchronize their stance on Turkey, both are also characterized by an increasingly feverish internal debate about how best to respond to Turkey’s behaviour. A genuine fresh start in Turkey-West relations is somewhat illusionary as most of the underlying problems are more likely increasing rather than decreasing, pointing to a more permanent dual-track policy of cooperation and containment, both by the US and the EU.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Leadership, Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America

59. Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea

Author:: Gustav Gressel
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them. Reducing the predictability of such operations is the first step towards deterring them, because Moscow carefully weighs their risks. Western countries should increase their militaries’ interoperability with Black Sea states’ armed forces and improve the infrastructure they use to deploy reinforcements in the region. This would allow them to react to Russian military escalation in kind and thereby increase the risks for Moscow. With Ukraine and Georgia engaged in land wars against Russia, the vulnerabilities of Ukrainian and Georgian airspace and territorial waters have received relatively little attention. Western states could begin to address these vulnerabilities by establishing an international naval presence in the Black Sea. This would counter Russia’s attempts to deny other nations free use of the sea, and could help mitigate long-standing rivalries between allied states in the region. These efforts to enhance Black Sea states’ security will depend on improvements in other areas, particularly the security of government communications, counter-intelligence, the rule of law, and the fight against corruption.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Crimea, and Black Sea

60. New energies: How the European Green Deal can save the EU’s relationship with Turkey

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Susi Dennison
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Europeans know that the EU needs to create a new paradigm in its relationship with Turkey after a challenging few years. The bloc also needs to develop a form of European climate leadership that complements but is distinct from Washington’s re-engagement with the green agenda. Through close cooperation with Turkey on the European Green Deal, the EU could meet both challenges and build trust in relations with Ankara. The sides have a shared interest in supporting Turkey’s pro-Western business community and in developing the promising Turkish renewables sector. EU member states should help Turkey manage the impact of the new trade regulations the European Green Deal would bring in. This refreshed approach would not resolve broader disputes over issues such as human rights – but it could start rules-based engagement and change the mood music enough to improve other areas of the relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

61. Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a decade-long feud that is reshuffling the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa. They see each other as existential rivals and are waging a series of proxy wars between the Horn of Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Their rivalry also plays out in the halls of Washington and Brussels, the global media discourse, the energy industry, and, lately, ports and the high seas. Europe should avoid being sucked into this power struggle to redefine the Middle East and North Africa. Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry. Europe should establish a NATO deconfliction mechanism, push ahead with the political process in Libya, and design a constructive new framework to insulate European-Turkey relations from the rivalry.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United Arab Emirates

62. Possible Escalation: No Love Lost between Erdogan and Turkish Opposition

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkish opposition pledged to take down President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the June 2023 elections and to restore the parliamentary system. Meral Akşener, leader of the Iyi (Good) Party, promised that the next president will be from the Nation Alliance consisting of her party and the Republican People’s Party ((CHP) - the biggest opposition party in Turkey). It is noteworthy that the Turkish opposition won the 2019 municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara by following the same strategy of alliances.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Turkey

63. Incessant Tension: Uncovering the Turkish attempt to bust an Israeli spy ring

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On October 21, Daily Sabah announced that an Israeli spy ring, consisting of 15 agents, was arrested in Turkey early in October. The Turkish newspaper affiliated with the Turkish government and JDP said that the spy ring targeted Israel's opponents in Turkey. A day later, the newspaper affirmed that one of the arrested agents collected information about Palestinians residing in Turkey, and about Turkish military industries. However, Ankara did not officially announce the news, while Israel denied the accusation. A few weeks earlier, the pro-Hamas Shehab News agency announced that seven Palestinian PNA and Mossad agents were arrested in Turkey allegedly for spying on certain Palestinian residents in Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Espionage
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

64. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:: Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

65. Turkey Enters Tunisia’s Weapons Market With Combat-Proven Arms: A Technical and Strategic Assessment

Author:: Can Kasapoglu
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In late 2020, Turkey finally secured a lucrative arms sale package to Tunisia after a long period of negotiations. The $150 million portfolio, which attracted key players of the Turkish defense technological and industrial base, such as Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) and British Motor Corporation (BMC), will mean more than only defense revenues for Turkey (TRT Haber, December 24, 2020). It will additionally mark Turkish weaponry’s entrance into the Tunisian market against the backdrop of Ankara’s geopolitical quests in North Africa, which has become a geopolitical flashpoint encompassing various forms of militancy, transnational terrorism, and proxy warfare.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Weapons, Drones, Arms Trade, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Turkey, North Africa, Tunisia, and Mediterranean

66. Access to Data on Children in Turkey: An Evaluation Based on the Urban95 Project Experience

Author:: Bürge Elvan Erginli and Gizem Fidan
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Nowadays, the need for the use of data in developing an accurate, effective and measurable urban policy is being voiced by many local administrations and civil society organizations, and as a matter of fact, some local administrations have already increased their efforts for data production and use. However, organizations face with certain problems in regard to accessing, obtaining and generating systematic data. The purpose of this report is to put forward these problems along with their reasons and to offer solutions by focusing specifically on data regarding early childhood period.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Children, Urban, and Data
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

67. Data-Driven Strategy Development for Children’s Play in the City

Author:: Bora İyiat
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: When we consider which areas in the city children use to explore, socialize and play, the first ones coming to mind are school gardens, parks, green areas and playgrounds that are reserved for them with the intent to support their development. These areas which have an important place in the daily urban life of children are designed and planned by local governments. All urban and green spaces, including playgrounds which are areas created especially for children in the city, should be based on spatial planning and quality factors that include children’s needs and preferences. And planning requires the use of data.
Topic:: Governance, Children, Urban, Sustainability, Data, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

68. COVID-19 and Data-Driven Urban Resilience Policies

Author:: Bahadir Keşan and Ayşe Yetiş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The process of COVID-19 pandemic has once again revealed the significance of urban resilience in the face of sudden crises. As the pandemic process has taken longer, urban life has been seriously affected in economic, social and environmental terms; local governments have also begun to develop new policies to restructure the cities so as to adapt to the changes faced. In this brief, Strategy Development Directors of Sultanbeyli and Maltepe Municipalities share their collaboration experience for data driven urban resilience policies during the pandemic.
Topic:: Governance, Sustainability, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

69. Work and Gender in Turkey’s Export-Oriented Agriculture: The Case of Sweet Cherries

Author:: Nil Alt
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Situated within this global agri-food context, the purpose of this policy note is to examine the production process for the most prominent high value fruit grown in Turkey, the sweet cherry. This will serve to make problems embedded in relations of production visible. Based on my ethnographic fieldwork of the export-driven sweet cherry sector, conducted between 2018 and 2021 in three different production sites, I will make some suggestions to inform more democratic and equitable social policies.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Exports, and Equity
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

70. Greece and Turkey: A Prime Example of a Complicated Relationship

Author:: Sofia Maria Satanakis
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The relations between Greece and Turkey are known to be historically tense and problematic. Despite being NATO allies, their relationship has been marked by various crises over the past decades and often caught the attention of the international community. Greece, on the intermittent military coups (1960, 1971, 1980), while as early as 1964, it became an associate member of the European Community; the goal being to ultimately join the ‘club’ – as Greece did back in 1981.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

71. Limited Rapprochement: Prospects for Turkish-Israeli Convergence of Interests

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey’s endeavor to improve its relations with Israel were evidenced in its recent official contacts with Israel. Most recently, on July 12, 2021, Israeli President Issac Herzog and Turksih President Recep Tayyib Erdogan held a phone call, followed by official contacts between ministers and officials from both countries. The contacts are perceived as a Turkish attempt to overcome years of strained relations between the two countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Military Affairs, Economy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

72. Pragmatic Adaptation: American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan on August 15th when the Taliban reached the outskirts of the capital Kabul. At the time, a source close to Taliban stressed that the two sides reached an agreement whereby Ghani should step down and hand over power to a transitional administration. While the United States and the European Union might well consider the use of sanctions as a weapon against the Taliban, if the movement does not live up to its commitment not to target US and European citizens leaving Afghanistan, it should be noted that most of Afghanistan’s neighbors expected the collapse of the Afghan government – although not this fast- and even began to open up to the Taliban. Irreversible US Withdrawal The United States defended its decision to pull out of Afghanistan rebuffing criticism both at home and abroad. It reiterated that kept forces in Afghanistan twice as long as the Soviets. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said remaining in Afghanistan is “simply not in the national interest.” He added that the US succeeded in the mission of reducing attacks on its soil and interests. The US withdrawal will leave wide repercussions both regionally and internationally.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Taliban, European Union, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Adaptation, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, South Asia, Turkey, India, and United States of America

73. Remarkable Shift Implications of the Meeting of US Envoy to Libya with General Haftar in Cairo

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The US Embassy in Libya recently announced that US Special Envoy and Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland met General Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army in Cairo between August 11-12 2021, as part of US efforts to support the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December. The announcement followed statements in which Noland noted Haftar’s role in unifying the Libyan army. Norland also called on regional and international parties to help in the removal of foreign forces from Libya, much to the anger of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, who sensed a change in Washington’s attitude towards their organization. This was made even more evident when Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi, spoke to the New York Times in an interview published on July 30. In the interview, Qaddafi asserted that he would run for president in the coming elections. The development indicates Washington’s current attitude towards parties to the conflict in Libya and its potential approval of Gaddafi’s presidential candidacy.
Topic:: Oil, Islamic State, Conflict, Muslim Brotherhood, and Khalifa Haftar
Political Geography:: Turkey, Libya, North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

74. Multifaceted Challenges: The political dimension of the physicians’ crises in the region

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Although the difficulties’ health personnel face, are quite similar to those of workers in other fields, the political dimensions of physicians ’crises in the region have increased remarkably. Medical doctors are kidnapped in some hotbeds of several Arab armed conflicts to provide treatment for some Militia members, in addition to their indirect involvement in military confrontations in Northeastern Syria through Turkey. Moreover, there is a gap between the medical syndicate and the political authorities regarding the actual number of COVID-19 cases, which was quite evident in Turkey. Medical doctors in some states of the region suffer from delayed payment of their salaries as a result of the decline in oil prices as well as the decline in the financial budgets of their countries. This leads to what is known as the ‘brain drain’, in addition to their contracting diseases such as the coronavirus due to their presence on the front lines confronting the epidemic with short medical supplies. The lives of medical doctors in some countries are endangered, as they get exposed to repeated attacks by community members due to the absence of adequate security measures. The crises of medical doctors in the region are by no means a recent phenomenon, but their features evolve according to different regional conditions and the emergence of transnational epidemics. The Middle East reflects a variety of crises that physicians are exposed to, particularly in hotbeds of tension.
Topic:: Health, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

75. A new momentum for EU-Turkey cooperation on migration

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief considers how to move forward with the (financial element of the) EU-Turkey statement agreed in 2016, under which the first tranche of 3 billion euros will end mid-2021. In order not to reverse the progress achieved and to continue the work on improving the resilience of the 4.1 million refugees in Turkey, there is an urgent need for the European Union and Turkey to agree on a new financial framework. One that builds on the current, generally successful framework – the EU Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRiT) – but which would divide the burden between Turkey and the EU more equally. Both blocs would, moreover, do well to look into the possibilities of extending the area of cooperation to Idlib. In that area, which is currently under Turkey’s military control, almost three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) currently lack adequate shelter and essentials, which could potentially lead to various displacement scenarios. Neither of those decisions will be easy and will require serious support from all EU member states, but the fact is Turkey remains essential in pursuing the EU’s core interest: preventing another refugee flow into Europe.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Refugees, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

76. Whose Long Arm? Challenges to Understanding Turkish Diaspora Politics

Author:: Christopher Houtkamp and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael policy brief seeks to explain visible manifestations of Turkish politics in European cities. Why does Turkish politics lead to unrest in Rotterdam and Berlin and what institutional mechanisms facilitate this? The brief highlights various drivers, institutional manifestations and historical changes, but also points out that there are a number of uncertainties and questions about the motivations for, and modus operandi of, Turkey’s influence in European societies. These questions are all the more relevant as European policy-makers increasingly seek to take measures in order to curb this. The main argument developed in this brief is that effective policy ‘at home’ (in Europe) will require better knowledge of socio-political developments ‘abroad’ (in Turkey). The first and second parts of this brief, therefore, show how the drivers of Turkish influence on the diaspora have changed over time. The third section highlights how present-day diaspora politics is institutionally anchored in Western Europe. Most of the practical examples in this brief are drawn from the Dutch context, but the dynamics will be familiar to those observing this phenomenon in other Western European countries.
Topic:: Politics, Diaspora, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

77. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Idlib

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The trigger for the Turkish Operation Spring Shield in northern Idlib in February 2020 was to prevent the Syrian conflict – especially extremists and refugees – spilling over into Turkey as the result of a new regime offensive. A deeper driver of the operation was Ankara’s desire to draw a line against further regime advances that might jeopardise Turkish territorial gains across northern Syria. Millions of Syrian internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were the main – although unintended – beneficiaries of the operation. Tactically, Operation Spring Shield was a success because of a surge in Turkish military resources in northern Idlib, Ankara’s willingness to use them, and the speed with which Turkey acted. Strategically, it helped a great deal that Russia decided to stand aside for a few days. Russian-Turkish diplomacy resumed after battlefield conditions had shifted in Turkey’s favour and Syrian regime forces were stopped in their tracks. In the short term, Operation Spring Shield can be considered as having brought a measure of humanitarian and geopolitical stabilisation by clarifying Turkey’s red lines to Damascus, Tehran and Moscow, and by bringing about a new equilibrium between Russiansupported forces and Turkish forces in Syria. The operation did not negatively affect Turkey’s relationship with its NATO partners, the EU or the US. This was in part because the operation highlighted the limitations of the Astana process – a diplomatic initative in which Turkey, Iran and Russia pursue opposing aims vis-à-vis the Assad regime – from which these actors are excluded. In the medium term, the impact of Operation Spring Shield will depend on the permanence of the Turkish presence, the level of Turkish developmental investment and the evolution, as well as the place, of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the future governance of northern Idlib.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

78. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Libya

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The strategic objectives of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in 2019–2020 in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) were geopolitical (establishing an entry point into Africa in addition to Somalia), geo-economical (related to gas exploration in the Mediterranean) and commercial (facilitating repayment of outstanding business debts and enabling future profits). The deeper drivers of Ankara’s intervention include a mix of more assertive nationalism based on a hegemonic conception of Turkey’s ‘near abroad’, a perceived need to counter the military campaign of the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s to conquer Tripolitania, and Turkey’s exclusion from Mediterranean gas politics. Ankara’s intervention and its institutionalisation proved effective in counterbalancing the LNA and its international backers – chiefly Russia and the UAE, but also France and Egypt – and produced a more stable political situation in the process. While Turkey has achieved its short- to medium-term objectives and is likely to retain a substantial permanent military, commercial and political presence in Libya, it also created tensions with the EU and US as well as antagonizing the LNA’s international backers. In brief, an improvement in Turkey’s geostrategic position might have come at the cost of its regional strategic relations.
Topic:: Politics, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

79. Biden-Erdogan meeting: cautious rapprochement amid still thorny disputes

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As long as Turkey pursues its regional ambitions, any understandings with the US and the West will necessarily have a hard ceiling. However, Ankara seems to be pursuing a more conciliatory policy in the region and in its relations with the West for both economic and strategic reasons.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, Strategic Interests, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

80. The Washington-Ankara alliance: Recurrent crises or durable partnership

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: An imminent crisis between the Biden administration and Ankara is anticipated due to circumstantial differences and structural shifts in the balance of power, but the mutual interests of the two parties may push them to agree on new foundations for a sustainable partnership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

81. Defining a Realistic Policy Toward Erdogan's Turkey: Advice for the Biden Administration

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. concerns center on Turkey’s democratic backslide and deepening ties between Erdogan and Putin—but the Turkish president also wants to develop a rapport with Joe Biden and fortify his country’s weakened economy. In the seventh in a series of TRANSITION 2021 memos examining the Middle East and North Africa, Soner Cagaptay offers guidelines for reinforcing the strained U.S.-Turkey relationship. Principal causes for unease involve U.S. concerns about Turkey’s democratic backslide and deepening ties between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, particularly Ankara’s decision to purchase the S-400 missile defense system from Moscow. Yet Erdogan also wants to develop a rapport with President Biden and fortify his country’s weakened economy. Further, Ankara and Washington can find many areas for tactical cooperation in places such as Syria, Libya, and China’s Xinjiang province, where the government is carrying out a genocide against the Muslim Uyghur population “Erdogan needs to reverse the current dynamic by advancing the narrative that he is getting along just fine with Washington,” the author explains. “Thus, in this early phase of the U.S. administration, Biden would appear to have a brief window of leverage over his Turkish counterpart.” In the coming weeks, TRANSITION 2021 memos by Washington Institute experts will address the broad array of issues facing the Biden-Harris administration in the Middle East. These range from thematic issues, such as the region’s strategic position in the context of Great Power competition and how to most effectively elevate human rights and democracy in Middle East policy, to more discrete topics, from Arab-Israel peace diplomacy to Red Sea security to challenges and opportunities in northwest Africa. Taken as a whole, this series of memos will present a comprehensive approach for advancing U.S. interests in security and peace in this vital but volatile region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

82. Syria at the Center of Power Competition and Counterterrorism

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Even as U.S. policymakers must stay focused on the Assad regime’s culpability, they also face a complex web of power dynamics in which Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and other actors are attempting to secure their various interests. After a decade of civil war in Syria, the core antagonist remains the Assad regime, which in 2011 ruthlessly suppressed peaceful protestors and has since tortured and executed tens of thousands of detainees. The regime also bears responsibility for fostering the growth of the Islamic State, in part by releasing Syrian jihadists at the start of the war. Yet even as U.S. policymakers must stay focused on Assad’s culpability, they also face a highly complex web of power dynamics in which Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and other actors are attempting to secure their various interests. In this Policy Note, expert Aaron Zelin details how the world’s counterterrorism and Great Power challenges converge in Syria, and how they must be addressed holistically. To this end, he proposes policies on the diplomatic, humanitarian, legal, economic, and military fronts that can calm the fears of U.S. allies such as Israel, Jordan, and Turkey, and perhaps inspire a more robust opposition, backed by a diverse set of local and diaspora activists.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Syrian War, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

83. Turkish-Egyptian Relations after Erdoğan’s Sacrifice of the Muslim Brotherhood

Author:: Maged Atef
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey is making overtures for rapprochement with Egypt. How will Sisi respond? In a surprising development, Turkey-based media channels opposed to the Egyptian regime announced the suspension of all political programs attacking President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and his regime, based on directives from the Turkish government. Supporters of the Egyptian regime met the news with happiness and approval, counting it as a victory for Sisi. Yet the Egyptian regime itself refrained from showing enthusiasm towards this paradigm shift, contenting itself with a remark by Minister of Information Osama Heikal in which the minister said the move represented a “good gesture from Turkey.” Meanwhile, Egyptian Islamists residing in Turkey were struck by concerns that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could be contemplating handing them over to Cairo. Looking ahead, despite the importance of Erdogan’s gesture, any response from Sisi is still unclear
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

84. Analysis of the Turkish Services Industry and Korea-Turkey Cooperation

Author:: Cheol-Won Lee, Hyun Jean Lee, Mahmut Tekçe, and Burcu Düzgün Öncel
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The Agreement on Trade in Services and the Agreement on Investment between Korea and Turkey came into effect in August 2018. This article focuses on the construction sector and the cultural contents sector to seek possible cooperative measures between the two countries.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Culture, Economy, Investment, and Industry
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

85. Refugees at the gate of Europe

Author:: Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The recent crisis in Evros brought back to the fore the issue of immigration and Turkey’s role in its instrumentalization. The EU-Turkey Statement has not had the expected outcomes. Rather it showed that prevention policies and the outsourcing of migration management strengthens transit countries such as Turkey, without resulting in a a steady reduction in flows. Greece remains a country that bears a disproportionate burden of responsibility due to its geographical location. At the same time, it has delayed in the planning of a holistic immigration policy, which should aim, among other things, to ensure human living conditions, substantial access to asylum and result in the integration of those who will remain in the country. COVID 19 will bring about significant socioeconomic changes globally as well as impact human rights. Practices of the past do not necessarily fit for the new reality and this is the biggest challenge for Greece and the EU; a willingness to move forward by investing on migration within Europe and beyond. It will not be easy, and it will come at a high financial (and likely political) cost. The pandemic makes any long-term commitments seem impossible, however the alternative scenario, of deterrence and outsourcing is already proving insufficient. Balancing the scales is a challenge which the EU cannot afford to lose.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, European Union, Refugees, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

86. Greece and Israeli-Turkish relations

Author:: George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This essay by Dr. George Tzogopoulos, focuses on the multidimensional nature of Greek-Israeli relations. The understanding of the depth of these relations can explain why the two countries – along with Cyprus – are interested in coming closer. On the other hand, the effort of Israel and Turkey to normalize bilateral ties – already under way since 2016 – is a logical development that deserves attention. However, it is not related to the future evolution of Greek-Israeli collaboration. The evolution of Greek-Israeli relations in the last decade and trilateral Greece-Israel-Cyprus summits outline the common interest of the three countries to enrich their cooperation. Israel and Turkey have started since 2016 to normalize their relations. This is an ongoing process that has evolved in a period during which Greece, Israel and Cyprus charted a joint course in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel and Turkey are expected to find a modus vivendi by agreeing on some issues and disagreeing on others. A potential Turkish-Israeli collaboration against Iran in Syria might pave the way for new synergies between Israel and Turkey. This is a highly controversial and complicated matter that entails risks for Ankara.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Syria

87. US-Turkey Relations Hanging by a Thread: Trump’s Re-Election

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: As the American elections are about to take place, many in Turkey brace for the outcome. After countless disputes between the United States and Turkey during the 2010’s, coupled with growing divergence of Turkish foreign policy, two allies’ relationship has been deceptively good for the last two years. This was not due to a meaningful rapprochement, but to Erdogan’s well-executed personal diplomacy with Trump which has proved beneficial for Turkey in many cases. Yet, this superficial rapprochement is challenged by the prospects of a Biden presidency. Biden, whose remarks are far from affable towards Erdogan and who has even pledged to support Turkish opposition, is very likely to demand Turkey to recommit to its alliance with the West. Hence, we may soon see a Turkey at a serious crossroads: either Turkey will turn its face to West once again, or it will further alienate from the West.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Turkey, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

88. Taking the EU out of the EastMed pipeline quagmire

Author:: Sofia López Piqueres
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The recent escalating tensions between Greece and the Republic of Cyprus on the one hand and Turkey on the other have shown how contentious the issue of energy is in the Eastern Mediterranean. The planned EastMed pipeline is a case in point. But, paradoxically, adopting a ‘selective engagement’ approach and focusing on the energy and climate dimensions of the countries’ relations could be a starting point to rebuild trust. A discussion on the future of the EastMed project, in particular, could present an opportunity to get all parties at the table and diffuse the situation. To play a constructive role in this, the EU must act in the spirit of the Green Deal and stop investing in the EastMed pipeline, and find ways to encourage Greece, Cyprus and Turkey to make the shift to renewables now and ditch offshore gas exploration altogether.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Pipeline
Political Geography:: Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

89. Could Turkey’s new parties change the political balance?

Author:: Amanda Paul and Demir Murat Seyrek
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The establishment of two new political parties by former AKP heavyweights, Ahmet Davutoğlu and Ali Babacan, in December 2019 and March 2020 respectively is cause for hope. President Erdoğan’s AKP is suffering from mounting domestic headaches and a moribund economy, which is taking a toll on its public support. Still, he is sure to push back fiercely against any effort to weaken AKP rule. The EU must keep its channels of communication with Turkey open and work to improve and deepen their currently contentious relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Mediterranean

90. Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support. Over the past week, regional and European actors have increased their diplomatic activity around Libya in response to intensifying violence in the nine-month-old civil war. On January 8, less than a week after the Turkish parliament approved sending forces to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met in Istanbul and called for a Libya ceasefire to begin on January 12. Whether or not Moscow and Ankara manage to pause the violence temporarily, their growing influence in Libya represents an epic failure of Western attempts to resolve the conflict diplomatically. The longer-term effort to jumpstart Libya’s political transition requires a wider international effort at peace and reconciliation—something Russia and Turkey can support but not lead. Putin and Erdogan seemed to acknowledge that fact at their summit, endorsing a long-planned multilateral conference in Berlin aimed at recommitting all relevant actors to support an end to hostilities and respect the UN Security Council’s mandatory but widely ignored arms embargo. Even assuming Putin is serious and withdraws Russian mercenaries from the frontlines, a full, lasting ceasefire cannot transpire until the other actors who support Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) agree to withdraw their equipment and personnel for a fixed period while negotiations are launched—especially the United Arab Emirates, which provides the LNA with critical air superiority. At the same time, Turkey would have to take commensurate de-escalatory steps of its own. The United States is the only actor that holds enough weight with all the foreign parties to bring about an authentic ceasefire. Despite being consumed with crises in Iran and Iraq, Washington should expend the diplomatic effort required to pursue durable stability in Libya before the country slips further toward endemic chaos.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and United States of America

91. Idlib and Its Environs: Narrowing Prospects for a Rebel Holdout

Author:: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During the war years in Syria, the northwest, specifically Idlib, has become a site of heavy internal displacement. Observers on the ground recognize the green buses traveling to Idlib carrying migrants who have refused reconciliation agreements with the Damascus regime. Since around 2014, a range of jihadist, Islamist, and Salafi actors have wielded control in the area, the most recent being the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has ruled—ineffectively and brutally—through its so-called Syrian Salvation Government. But the group's reign is unlikely to last long if current trends persist. The regime's recent move against the town of Maarat al-Numan suggests plans for a broader takeover in the northwest, aided by Russian firepower and other allies such as Iran. In this Policy Note filled with local insights, jihadism expert Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi presents the current scene in and around Idlib province, the last Syrian outpost still run by independent rebels. Absent an intervention by Turkey, the Assad regime will likely prevail in a campaign that quashes the insurgency at a high humanitarian cost.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Displacement, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

92. Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya

Author:: Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo; working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April despite European support to Salame. Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring resolution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Conference
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Germany, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, Berlin, and United States of America

93. Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe

Author:: Fabrice Balanche
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises. The battle for Idlib province, the last stronghold of Syrian rebel forces, is heating up again. As Turkish troops clash with Assad regime forces and displaced civilians continue piling up along the border, various foreign and domestic players are considering moves that could send hundreds of thousands of refugees to other parts of Syria, northern Iraq, or Europe.
Topic:: Refugees, Displacement, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Syria, and Idlib

94. The Syrian Safe Zone and International Law

Author:: Bríd Ní Ghráinne
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: On Wednesday 9 October 2019, Turkey launched a cross-border operation in Northern Syria. Turkey justified its actions as a response to an ‘imminent terrorist threat’ from Kurdish-led forces. Its operation was directed at pushing back these groups from its border and creating a ‘safe zone’ in Syria where up to two million Syrian refugees can be resettled. This reflection aims to assess whether the Turkish operation to establish the safe zone was lawful; and whether the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the safe zone is in conformity with international law.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Refugees, Syrian War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

95. The Impacts of Covid-19 on Children and Social Policy Responses

Author:: Başak Akkan
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Children had received less attention in the early stages of the pandemic. The mortality rates among children have been almost non-existent, and consequently they have not constituted a risk group. However, in a country with high incidences of child poverty, Covid-19 could have a significant impact in aggravating the existing inequalities among children and in creating new forms of deprivation. Within this context, the impact of Covid-19 on children is analyzed under four headings: The poverty aggravating effect of the pandemic; the manifestation of inequalities regarding the physical (home) environment and living conditions of children; the deepening of digital inequalities and access to education; and increased and unrecorded cases of domestic violence and child abuse amid the lockdowns.
Topic:: Children, Inequality, Social Policy, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Abuse
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

96. The Universal Basic Income Debate After the Covid-19 Pandemic: Has Its Time Come?

Author:: Ezgi Seçkiner Bingöl
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Universal basic income, which denotes a country allocating a regular unconditional cash grant to all its citizens, is back on the debate stage following the Covid-19 pandemic. This brief evaluates universal basic income together with the pandemic and focuses on examples of countries where basic income has been implemented. How can the universal basic income debate be grounded in Turkey in line with these examples? How can universal basic income acquire a position within Turkey’s social assistances regime, or can it even be positioned as an alternative to it? Is universal basic income possible in Turkey? This brief aims to discuss these questions.
Topic:: Public Policy, Economic Inequality, Universal Basic Income, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

97. Informal Employment during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Gökçe Uysal
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The high prevalence of informal employment constitutes one of the most important structural problems of Turkey’s labor market. The labor market in Turkey has a dual structure: Formal employment protected by legal regulations such as the Labor Law and the Unemployment Insurance Law on one hand, and informal employment with no legal regulations and harsh working conditions on the other. This brief will summarize the current situation by analyzing the 15-year trajectory of informality in Turkey, discuss the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on informal employment and propose a new direction for fighting it.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

98. Coronavirus Times in Turkey: Contemplating the Concept of Governance Under the Shadow of a Despotic Leviathan

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The question we need to ask is this: how do we determine whether a government is successful or not in the face of a pandemic of such proportions? While it may seem like there is an objective answer to this question, in fact the answer will inevitably be influenced by the political stance, worldview and party preference of the person responding.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Accountability, Transparency, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

99. Local Bureaucracy in Migration Governance: The Case of Istanbul

Author:: Zeynep Balcıoğlu
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: According to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than half of the refugee population of the world lives in non-camp areas, predominantly in cities or city peripheries. Access of refugees to social and public services in cities is more difficult compared to camps where social services such as health, education and shelter are provided centrally by states or humanitarian aid institutions. The most sustainable way of overcoming this difficulty in non-camp settings is integrating refugees into existing service infrastructures.
Topic:: Migration, United Nations, Infrastructure, Governance, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Istanbul, and Mediterranean

100. The Iraqi and Kurdish Regional Government’s Sinjar Agreement: Consequences for U.S., Turkish, and Iranian Influence and Rebel Rivalries

Author:: Rami Jameel
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On October 9, the Iraqi government headed by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) signed the “Sinjar Agreement” to normalize the situation in the war-torn district of Sinjar in northern Iraq. The agreement stated that only Iraqi federal forces should operate in Sinjar and all other armed groups must leave the town. It also gave the KRG a say on establishing a new local government, including appointing a new mayor, and planning and running reconstruction efforts in Sinjar, including related budgetary matters (Rudaw, October 10).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Kurds, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS