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2. Combating Terrorism and Alleviating Human Suffering in Syria
- Author:
- Andrew J. Tabler
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In this new Transition 2017 paper, Institute expert Andrew J. Tabler argues that Syria remains de facto partitioned, making the establishment of safe zones in non-Assad-controlled areas the Trump administration's most expedient course of action. Moreover, it would further Washington's cause to drive a wedge into the country's Russia-Iran alliance, and both isolate and pressure the Assad regime. If Washington's objectives in Syria are to defeat U.S.-designated terrorist groups and stem the outflow of refugees, President Bashar al-Assad is under no circumstances the right person to entrust with these missions. Simply in practical terms, he lacks the manpower to retake and hold the two-thirds of Syrian territory outside his control any time soon, despite having sufficient support from Russia and Iran to maintain control in large parts of the country. But more important, Assad is an avowed adversary of the West, undeserving of its cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil War, International Security, International Affairs, and Neoimperialism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, Iran, and Syria
3. The Russian Gambit In Syria
- Author:
- Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Senior researcher and research coordinator Flemming Splidsboel Hansen explores Russia’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. The Kremlin presents Russia’s political and military involvement in Syria as an unconditional success. Its overall aim of putting Russia firmly back on the geopolitical map has been met. It is now clear that the key to any negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria lies in Moscow. Moreover, Russia now seems to be close to a position where it may dictate the composition of the future Syrian regime and, not least, decide whether Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will remain in the presidential palace or be forced into exile. The costs of the military operations have been acceptable to the Russian public. Defence observers estimate that the first year of military operations cost the Russian armed forces 65 bn Rubles (approximately one bn USD) and some 20 deaths (combat and non-combat). The financial costs may be partially offset by increased future weapons sales. There is a high probability, however, that Russia will find itself embroiled in a complicated sectarian conflict in Syria from which there is no easy exit. This would test Russian public support for the military involvement in Syria. Already now Russian media comments suggest some degree of frustration over the alleged lack of fighting capacity and will on part of the Syrian armed forces. The Russian public may want to see a plan for an orderly exit from Syria, and this puts pressure on the Kremlin to deliver. However, the Syrian regime may not be able to survive without Russian military support, and Russian policy-makers may therefore soon be facing difficult choices.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Syria
4. Israel’s conflicting interests in the Syrian War
- Author:
- Halle Malmvig
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Senior researcher Helle Malmvig explores Israels’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. Israel’s activities in Syria have not drawn much attention due to Israel’s official policy of neutrality. Yet, over the last couple of years, Israel has stepped up its operations in Syria, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah assets and providing quiet assistance to the rebels.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Syria
5. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
6. The Reluctant Sectarianism of Foreign States in the Syrian Conflict
- Author:
- Thomas Pierret
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict's internal dynamics have reshuffled regional alignments alongside unprecedentedly clear-cut sectarian dividing lines; this has often occurred against the preferences of regional state actors−including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign states have generally adopted expedient policies that followed sectarian patterns for lack of alternatives. Iran bears significant responsibility for exacerbating the conflict's sectarian character at the regional level. There is no such “diplomatic shortcut” to regional appeasement; it is the domestic Syrian deadlock that must be broken in order to alleviate sectarian tensions across the Middle East, not the opposite.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
7. Syria: What China Has Learned From its Libya Experience
- Author:
- Yun Sun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China's joint veto along with Russia of the UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) on Syria has provoked fierce international criticism. Labeled as “responsible for Syria's genocide,” Beijing's international image has struck a new low. China's decision to cast the unpopular vote was apparently well thought-out, as evidenced by its consistent diplomatic rhetoric and actions, both before and after the veto. However, in analyzing China's motivation, many analysts seemed to have missed an important point. That is, China's experience concerning Libya in 2011 had a direct impact on its actions regarding Syria this time around.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Insurgency, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria
8. PolicyWatch #1241: Special Forum Report: The Future of Syria: Challenges and Prospects
- Author:
- Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 30, 2007, Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Professor Rubin, a visiting fellow at the Institute, is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), and author of the just-released book The Truth about Syria (Palgrave). Mr. Kattouf, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates, is president and CEO of AMIDEAST, a nonprofit group dedicated to enhancing educational links between the United States and the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria
9. Can Syria Come in from the Cold?
- Author:
- Seth Wikas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the coming weeks, Syria will participate in two important regional conferences. On March 10, it will join Iraq's other neighbors and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council in Baghdad. On March 28-29, it will participate in the Arab League summit in Riyadh. Syria's detractors continue to criticize Damascus for failing to seal the border with Iraq and for meddling in Lebanese internal affairs in violation of UN Security Resolution 1701. Of equal importance is the downturn in Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Last week's Saudi-Iranian summit has Damascus worried about its role in Lebanon and the possibility of an international tribunal on the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, a crime for which Syria is widely believed to be responsible. Will the upcoming conferences give Syria a chance to improve its regional standing, or will its isolation continue?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
10. Saudi-Iranian Mediation on Hizballah: Will a Lebanon Deal Come at Syria's Expense?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 20, the Lebanese cabinet—with a Hizballah-led opposition boycott—extended the term of the UN commission investigating the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. While the commission's work can now continue for as long as one more year, any future decision about organizing an international tribunal to try those indicted for the murder remains hostage to a vote—requiring the opposition's assent—in the paralyzed Lebanese parliament. Meanwhile, Hizballah continues to press its demand for increased political power within a “national unity” government, threatening civil disobedience should its demands not be met.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
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