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2. Disentangling from Syria's Civil War
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The United States intervened in Syria’s civil war in two ways: (1) anti-Assad efforts—through aid to rebels to help foster regime change and with airpower, troops and support to a militia—and (2) anti-ISIS efforts—through aid to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to destroy the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. The first mission was an ill-considered failure, the second a success.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, and Syria
3. Four ways in which the Syrian regime controls refugee return
- Author:
- Samar Batrawi and Ana Uzelac
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Syrian society is more socially, politically and geographically fragmented than ever before. None of the social problems that caused the 2011 protests have been resolved. Nevertheless, during recent months the Syrian regime has been trying to foster the image that Syria is entering a post-war phase in which a unified and stable Syria can flourish under President Bashar al-Assad. The fact that more than half of the country’s pre-war population is living in exile and has no part in this new social contract of sorts is conveniently omitted from the image presented of this ‘new’ Syria. These refugees will likely continue to live in precarious conditions, with few prospects for safe and voluntary return.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
4. Between Astana and Geneva: The outlook of conflicting agendas in the Syrian crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
5. Syria: Fate of Assad Impedes Success of Geneva III
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Civil War
- Political Geography:
- Syria
6. Syria Crisis Fair Share Analysis 2016
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The number of people in need as a result of the conflict in Syria continues to rise, but the international aid response has failed to keep up. The donor conference in London on 4 February 2016 is another opportunity to reverse that trend and put Syrian civilians first. Oxfam is calling for rich states to commit to fully funding this year’s Syria crisis response appeal and to resettle 10 percent of all registered Syrian refugees by the end of 2016. Oxfam has developed indicators to determine the fair level of commitment that each wealthy country should make to the appeals in 2016 to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the Syria crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
7. What Does New Political Push Mean for Syria?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
8. Right to a Future: Empowering refugees from Syria and host governments to face a long-term crisis
- Author:
- David Andres-Vinas, Daniel Gorevan, Martin Hartberg, Melissa Phillips, and Alexandra Saieh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- With no end to the conflict in Syria in sight, the four million people forced to flee the country have no foreseeable prospect of safe return. And as the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries grows and aid dries up, the situation for these refugees is becoming increasingly dire. This briefing calls for a new approach by the international community, including Syria’s neighbours; one which offers hope, safety and dignity to the millions of refugees, and gives them a chance to contribute to the societies and economies of their hosts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Syria
9. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State in Libya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State has been moving aggressively to exploit the chaos of Libya since last summer, with profound risks for the Mediterranean region and beyond Libya is a perfect breeding ground for an expanded Islamic State, with large amounts of heavy weaponry, systemic lawlessness, a divided population, and sustained armed conflict The group has formed three active and capable groups in Libya-in Tripoli, Fezzan, and Barqa-all of which have conducted deadly attacks in recent months The phenomenon of Islamic State affiliates-beginning in the summer of 2014, before which the group was entirely focused on Iraq and Syria-is actually in the tradition of its arch-rival al-Qaeda the presence and power of the Islamic State in Libya will likely increase as conditions in Syria and Iraq deteriorate for the group, and conditions in Libya continue to worsen.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Libya, and Syria
10. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria