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2. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
- Topic:
- Religion, Conflict, Sunni, Identity, and Shiism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
3. In the Service of Ideology: Iran's Religious and Socioeconomic Activities in Syria
- Author:
- Oula A. Alrifai
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The dalliance between the Assad family and Iran’s Shia clerics began in the 1970s. But whereas the Syrian leader held leverage in those days predating Iran’s Islamic Revolution, the tables have now been turned. Observers of the decade-long Syria war understand the indispensable role Tehran has played in ensuring the Assad regime’s survival. But they may be less familiar with its stunning breadth—or its historical roots. The dalliance between the Assad family and Iran’s Shia clerics began in the 1970s, when the shah was still in power in Iran and then president Hafiz al-Assad, a member of the marginalized Alawite sect, sought religious legitimacy to lead his majority-Muslim country. But whereas the Syrian leader held leverage in those days predating Iran’s Islamic Revolution, the tables have now been turned. Lately, Tehran’s relationship with Damascus can be described as one of strategic dominance. In this deeply researched Policy Note, analyst Oula Alrifai, a former Syrian asylee, lays bare the extent of Iranian infiltration of Syrian religious and socioeconomic life. She details the spread of Twelver Shia ideology through seminaries, congregation halls, and academic institutions, while demonstrating Iran’s massive economic clout in Syria through initiatives such as the Marota City housing project. For Washington, only a determined effort to blunt Iranian influence can help deliver much-deserved peace for the Syrian people and enduring stability for the region.
- Topic:
- Religion, History, Authoritarianism, Ideology, Syrian War, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
4. Challenges and opportunities for conflict resolution with Salafi jihadi armed groups
- Author:
- Veronique Dudouet and Karin Göldner-Ebenthal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief highlights recommendations for evidence-based policy making on pathways to conflict de-escalation with Salafi jihadi armed groups. It proposes a more nuanced public discussion of the topic. This brief draws mainly on the research report “Dialogue with Salafi jihadi armed groups: Challenges and opportunities for conflict de-escalation” which concludes a two-year research project based on case studies in Somalia, Syria and Mali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Somalia, and Mali
5. The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 1): Clerical Factors
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The clergy’s ambitions for global Shia revolution made the city of Qom uniquely vulnerable to the disease, and their resistance to modern medical science weakened the state’s ability to combat its spread. On February 19, two days before the Iranian government officially announced the arrival of coronavirus, an infected businessman who had recently returned from China to Qom passed away. The location and timing of his death illustrate how the Shia holy city and the religious leaders and institutions who call it home have played an outsize role in the disease’s disproportionately rapid spread inside Iran compared to other countries. How did this situation come to pass, and what does it say about the current state of the clerical establishment, its relationship with the regime, and its alienation from large swaths of Iranian society? (Part 2 of this PolicyWatch discusses the regime's role in the outbreak and its resiliency to such crises.)
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Health, Religion, Shia, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America
6. Engaging the Post-ISIS Iraqi Religious Landscape for Peace and Reconciliation
- Author:
- Ann Wainscott
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Religious actors in Iraq wield considerable influence, and Iraqis perceive them as playing an important role in moving the country toward peace. This report analyzes the influence of Iraq’s religious actors—who has it, why they have it, and how they exercise it—to illuminate their crucial role in supporting peace and reconciliation efforts and to help policymakers and practitioners understand how to engage them in efforts to advance peace.
- Topic:
- Religion, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Peace, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
7. Saudi First: How hyper-nationalism is transforming Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Eman Alhussein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia is embracing a new nationalism that is transforming domestic politics and the country’s foreign policy. The state is actively nurturing this nationalism, and has radically reduced the influence of the long-dominant religious establishment. A core purpose of the new nationalism is to speed the rise of the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and back his reform agenda. Social media and traditional outlets have swung forcefully in behind this, spreading ‘lines to take’ and exalting the state and its leadership above all else. But the leadership may have created a Trojan horse: already nationalists appear to be training their ferocity back on the state that created them.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Religion, Leadership, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
8. Syria Calling: Radicalisation in Central Asia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Growing numbers of Central Asian citizens, male and female, are travelling to the Middle East to fight or otherwise support the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL or ISIS). Prompted in part by political marginalisation and bleak economic prospects that characterise their post-Soviet region, 2,000-4,000 have in the past three years turned their back on their secular states to seek a radical alternative. IS beckons not only to those who seek combat experience, but also to those who envision a more devout, purposeful, fundamentalist religious life. This presents a complex problem to the governments of Central Asia. They are tempted to exploit the phenomenon to crack down on dissent. The more promising solution, however, requires addressing multiple political and administrative failures, revising discriminatory laws and policies, implementing outreach programs for both men and women and creating jobs at home for disadvantaged youths, as well as ensuring better coordination between security services.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, Terrorism, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Middle East, and Asia
9. Religion and Secularism in the Middle East: A Primer
- Author:
- Aaron Rock-Singer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Religion was a pillar of pre-modern political identity in the Middle East, arising out of Muslims’ understanding of Islam’s foundational moment and state institutions that developed with the spread of Islamic Empire. Beginning at the turn of the 19th century, European colonial powers and indigenous reformers questioned the centrality of religious identity; instead, it was to be the nation that defined the political community. Since then, the nationalist project has permeated 20th century ideological conflicts in the region, equally shaping the claims of secularists and Islamists. Today, advocates of religious change refer back to early Islamic history as they seek to place religious over national identity, yet they, like their competitors, are unmistakably shaped by the secular nationalist project.
- Topic:
- Islam, Nationalism, Post Colonialism, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
10. Religious Minorities in the Modern Middle East
- Author:
- Lev Weitz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The majority of the Middle East’s population today is Muslim, as it has been for centuries. However, as the place of origin of a range of world religions – including Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and many lesser-known faiths – it remains a region of remarkable religious diversity. This article considers the place of religious minorities in the modern Middle East from three angles: their distinctive religious and communal identities, their place in the major transformations of the region’s political landscape from the nineteenth century to the post-World War I era, and the challenges of contemporary political conditions.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
11. Identity in the Pre-Modern Middle East
- Author:
- Berkey Jonathan P.
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- We live in an age of identity politics. We define ourselves by one or more objective measures: measures of race, ethnicity, gender, politics, religion, sexual orientation, to name just a few. Those measures then define who we are to others. They determine our place in society, the communities with which we identify, our attitudes towards others and other communities. The politics of identity are fraught, and they interact in ways that both liberate and confine. On the one hand we prize diversity. On the whole, this is a good thing, since it reflects a larger transformation in American life. Like it or not, the fact is that we are becoming, have become, a “multi-cultural society.” No matter what terms we use to define diversity—racial, ethnic, religious, sexual, gender, whatever—we are more diverse now than we have ever been, and we are destined to grow more so. Multi-culturalism is not an option; it is the future. The only question is how, and how well, we are going to deal with it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
12. The Geopolitics of the Sunni-Shi'i Divide in the Middle East
- Author:
- Samuel Helfont
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2006, during the heart of the Global War on Terrorism, a New York Times reporter went to Washington in an attempt to ascertain the extent that American officials understood the ideologies underpinning Islamist terrorism. The reporter began with a simple question: could senior counterterrorism officials identify which groups were Sunnis and which were Shi'is? Remarkably senior officials and lawmakers – including the Chief of the F.B.I.‟s national security branch, and members of the U.S. House of Representatives‟ committees on intelligence and counter terrorism – had “no clue” whether actors such as Iran, Hezbollah, or al-Qaida were Sunnis or Shi„is. A number of questions emerged from this encounter. First, who are the Sunnis and Shi„is? Second, where are they located? And, finally, does it matter?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
13. Israel's internal frontier: the enduring power of ethno-nationalism
- Author:
- Cathrine Thorleifsson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the paradox of Mizrahim (Arab Jews) supporting right-wing Israeli policies through a case study of the border town of Kiryat Shemona. Based on ethnographic research, it illuminates the enduring power of ethno-nationalism and demonstrates how it affects Mizrahi lives. Mizrahim became trapped by Israeli nation-building on the geographic and socioeconomic margins of the state positioned between the dominant Ashkenazi elite and the Palestinian population. Factors such as Mizrahim's partial inclusion in the nation; tensions between Jews and Arabs, and between the secular and the religious; the decline of the welfare state; and a shared perception of threats and dangers informed everyday nationalism in the town. Mizrahim contested Ashkenazi Israeliness through ethnic and transnational identifications and practices. Simultaneously, their support for the nation-in-arms and identification as "strong"and "civilised" reinforced the dominant logic of ethno-nationalism. Mizrahi support for right-wing militarism is likely to persist as long as national unity is used as a colonial practice by the centre. The inclusion of Mizrahim as equals together with other marginalised citizens would necessarily entail an Israeli Spring.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
14. PolicyWatch #1388: Saudi Arabia: Interfaith Talks Abroad, Intolerance at Home
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Jasmine El-Gamal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, Saudi Arabia is organizing a global interfaith conference in Madrid, with more than 200 Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Buddhist religious leaders from 54 countries expected to attend. The conference, in the words of its main organizer, the Mecca-based Muslim World League, will "focus on common human values." Many in the West, however, will likely judge the conference as a Saudi public relations effort to emphasize its leadership of the Islamic world, and to ward off criticism, especially from the United States, that Saudi Arabia bears continuing responsibility for political and financial backing of Sunni extremists across the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Islam and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
15. PolicyWatch #1377: Treatment of Bahais: A Test of Human Rights in Iran
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 14, the Iranian government arrested six prominent Bahai leaders and accused them of "endangering national security." The timing of the arrests has led some to speculate that the Iranian government is trying to link these leaders to the April explosion at a religious center in Shiraz that killed fourteen people. Considering Iran's clerical establishment believes the existence of religious minorities undermines official Shiite orthodoxy, these latest arrests are just another black mark on Iran's long and dismal record of protecting individual human rights and religious freedom.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
16. PolicyWatch #1335: Kirkuk's Article 140: Expired or Not?
- Author:
- Nazar Janabi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Away from the headlines, Sunnis and Shiites are testing the waters of reconciliation in the Iraqi parliament with an agreement that may come at the expense of country's Kurdish population. The Kurdish political reaction to such an agreement could potentially exacerbate anti-Kurdish sentiment among many Arab parliamentarians, costing the Kurds some of the hard-earned political ground they have gained thus far.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
17. Turkey's Future: EU Member or "Islamist Rogue State"?
- Author:
- Dietrich Jung
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The EU's decision to grant Turkey the status of a candidate for full-membership triggered an intense and polarized debate about the principle eligibility of Turkey as an EU member-state. In this debate, religion has become an openly discussed issue with regard to the European dimension of Turkey. In posing three interrelated questions on Turkey's EU reform process, this brief argues that the country has engaged in a genuine reform process toward a pluralist democracy in whose course the relationship between religion and state in the country has been transformed. In order to support this process further, however, the Europeans need to avoid historical prejudices and they have to acknowledge the strong European dimension of this predominantly Muslim country.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. Turkey's 'Smart' Islamist Challenge
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Yuksel Sezgin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 20, thousands of secular Turks demonstrated in the Black Sea port city of Samsun against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has an Islamist pedigree. It was the most recent display of protest in a power struggle between the AKP and its opponents over determining a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In addition to the protestors and Sezer, the courts and the Turkish military have weighed in against the AKP. Far from backing down, as Turkey's Islamists would have done in the past, the AKP has stepped up the pressure by introducing a constitutional amendment package that calls for direct presidential elections to replace the current system of voting in parliament. President Sezer could decide the fate of this package, but the political crisis will continue.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
19. Shutting Hizballah's 'Construction Jihad'
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 20, the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated Jihad al-Bina, Hizballah's construction company in Lebanon, effectively shutting the terrorist group's firm out of the international financial system. While the designation will not take effect at the United Nations -- sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 1267 only target elements associated with al-Qaeda or the Taliban, to the exclusion of any other terrorist groups -- international lenders and donors, including financial institutions, NGOs, and governments, are unlikely to want to assume the reputational risk of working to rebuild Lebanon in partnership with Hizballah instead of the Lebanese government. Moreover -- and contrary to conventional wisdom -- the designation presents a rare public diplomacy opportunity in the battle of ideas in the war on terror.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Taliban, and Lebanon
20. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca
21. Hamas vs. Fatah: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi, Dennis Ross, and Ghaith al-Omari
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- There are three possibilities for the future of the troubled Hamas-Fatah relationship. The first is the default option, involving perpetual tension with progressively worsening violence—and no decisive victor. Each side mistakenly believes that it can swiftly defeat the other. Hamas believes it can win through continued rearmament and resistance, and that its political message resonates with its constituency. Its own efforts—along with Hizballah's perceived victory in summer 2006—have lent Hamas confidence in its current footing. For its part, Fatah believes it has historical claim to both power and representation, and that its rule of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and the governmental security apparatus are ingredients of a decisive victory, regardless of the continuing arms race.
- Topic:
- Government, Peace Studies, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
22. The Battle for Kirkuk: How to Prevent a New Front in Iraq
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Daniel Fink
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 14, in a rare show of unity, Sunni and Shiite Arab, Turkmen, and Christian Iraqis gathered at a conference in Ankara to denounce Kurdish plans to incorporate Kirkuk, the capital of Iraqs at-Tamim province, into the Kurdish region. This comes after recent violence in Kirkuk, including a December 26 roadside bomb that killed three and wounded six. Between December 2005 and July 2006, the number of reported violent incidents in Kirkuk increased by 76 percent, ending the citys previous status as a relatively safe area. With tensions in Kirkuk rising, how can violence be countered?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
23. PolicyWatch #1305: The PKK Redux: Implications of a Growing Threat
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 5, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and deputy chief of military staff Gen. Ergin Saygun visited President Bush in Washington to discuss the growing threat posed by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The composition of the Turkish delegation was symbolically important and demonstrates a new political stability based on the working relationship between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish military. Yet the newfound weight of the PKK issue may prove problematic for the United States -- and, in the long term, for Turkey as well.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
24. What Do Islamists Really Want?
- Author:
- Abdeslam Maghraoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Throughout the Muslim world, Islamist parties have emerged as major power brokers when allowed to compete in free elections. Yet their positions on many crucial governance issues remain unknown or ambiguous. Most debates on the potential to moderate and integrate Islamists in the democratic process have focused on Islam's compatibility with democracy or on debates over Islamists' normative commitment to democracy separately from the mechanics of achieving political power.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
25. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
26. One Year after the Cedar Revolution: The Potential for Sunni-Shiite Conflict in Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Acting Lebanese interior minister Ahmad Fatfat arrived in Washington June 20 for his first official visit in his new capacity. The U.S. trip comes one month after a radical Sunni Islamist organization was legalized in Lebanon, and just weeks after thousands of Shiite Hizballah supporters rioted in Beirut after the broadcast on LBC television of a comedy skit satirizing Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These developments highlight growing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon. Unchecked, this dynamic could lead to a resumption of the type of conflict that has long plagued Lebanon and threaten the gains of the Cedar Revolution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon
27. Rising Tensions Between Turkey's AKP and the Courts
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 17, a gunman chanting Islamist slogans attacked the Turkish Council of State (the Danistay, or high court for administrative affairs) in Ankara. The gunman killed one judge and wounded four others who were sitting in the Council's second chamber, which has recently upheld Turkey's ban on “turbans” in schools. In accordance with the European and Turkish notion of secularism (laïcité in French) as freedom from religious symbols in the public sphere, Turkey bans public officials and school students wearing turbans—a specific style of women's headcover that emerged in the mid 1980s and that the courts consider an Islamist political symbol. (Turbans are distinct from traditional headscarves, which are not banned.) Photographs of the judges had earlier been published in Islamist newspapers with headlines targeting them.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
28. Hamas Weapons in Jordan: Implications for Islamists on the East Bank
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 18, the Jordanian government announced it had discovered a cache of weapons -- including rockets, C-4 explosives, and small arms -- in a northern Jordanian town. Jordanian authorities said the weapons belonged to Hamas and had entered Jordan from Syria. Subsequently, Jordan arrested ten Hamas militants and cancelled a scheduled visit by Palestinian Authority (PA) foreign minister Mahmoud al-Zahar, a Hamas leader. While the discovery of these weapons underscores Hamas's continuing efforts to prepare for terrorist acts even while it proclaims a tahdiya (period of calm), it also has important implications for internal Jordanian politics and the rising influence of Jordan's own Islamist movement.
- Topic:
- Government, Religion, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Syria, and Jordan
29. A Tale of Two Countries: Defining Post-Syria Lebanon
- Author:
- Michael Young
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Shiite ministers recently “suspended” their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions. The other reflects a cross-communal parliamentary majority, the cornerstone of which is the Sunni-led Future Movement of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
30. How to Judge the Palestinian Elections
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Wednesday, January 25, Palestinian voters will elect a new Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for the first time since the initial PLC was elected ten years ago. The participation of Hamas in the elections marks a turning point in Palestinian politics; the group boycotted the original 1996 ballots as part of its rejection of the Oslo process. Ensuring a smooth transition from elections to the seating of the new PLC will require passing several hurdles, not the least of which is protecting balloting and vote-counting from violent disruptions. Assuming election day proceeds without incident—no small matter given the level of domestic lawlessness over the last several weeks—Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas will then face the challenge of selecting a prime minister to form the next government. What remains unknown is precisely how well Hamas will finish in relation to Abbas' own Fatah party, and whether a tight race will lead Abbas to include Hamas as an active partner in the next Palestinian government—or, indeed, whether a poor Fatah showing might prompt Abbas to resign.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
31. Lebanon at a Tripwire
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has badly lost its balance and is at risk of new collapse, moving ever closer to explosive Sunni-Shiite polarisation with a divided, debilitated Christian community in between. The fragile political and sectarian equilibrium established since the end of its bloody civil war in 1990 was never a panacea and came at heavy cost. It depended on Western and Israeli acquiescence in Syria's tutelage and a domestic system that hindered urgently needed internal reforms, and change was long overdue. But the upsetting of the old equilibrium, due in no small part to a tug-of-war by outsiders over its future, has been chaotic and deeply divisive, pitting one half of the country against the other. Both Lebanon's own politicians and outside players need to recognise the enormous risks of a zero-sum struggle and seek compromises before it is too late.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
32. Draft Constitution Gained, but an Important Opportunity Was Lost
- Author:
- Mona Iman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- While the outcome of Iraq's October 15 national referendum is uncertain, it is clear that many of Iraq's Sunni Arabs will vote against it. Why are Sunni Arabs opposed to a constitution that appears to give them the same opportunities for self-governance that it provides to Kurds and Shia?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
33. The Terrorist Threat and the Policy Response in Pakistan
- Author:
- Aarish Ullah Khan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Terrorists manipulate fear through the use of violence to achieve their objectives. An understanding of what motivates terrorists to employ mindless violence against civilian or non-combatant targets is essential for assessing the phenomenon. The current discussion of 'root causes' often focuses on finding the causes of antagonism towards civilization in the mind of a fanatic terrorist at the individual level. The debate about what motivates a terrorist, however, overlooks the factors that enable a terrorist to conduct terrorist activities. As argued by Walter Laqueur, even if better control can be achieved over the extremist motivation for terrorism, there will still be a few isolated individuals for whom the temptation to employ terrorism—if the opportunity remains—will be hard to resist.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Middle East
34. Zarqawi's 'Total War' on Iraqi Shiites Exposes a Divide among Sunni Jihadists
- Author:
- Emily Hunt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 2, Iraq's Defense Ministry appealed to junior officers from Saddam Hussein's disbanded army to return to service. The decision to include these soldiers is part of an ongoing strategy to minimize support for terrorism by reintegrating Sunnis into the political fabric of the new Iraq. This latest effort comes as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's group steps up targeting of Shiite civilians in an effort to spark retaliatory attacks against Sunnis. But as Zarqawi's attacks on Shiites exact growing toll among civilians, his tactics may be causing a divide within the ranks of the resistance.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
35. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation
- Author:
- Mohsen Sazegara
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, and Middle East
36. Turkey and Europe's Problem with Radical Islam
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, Düden Yegenoglu, and Ekim Alptekin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey opened accession talks with the European Union (EU) on October 3. In the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid bombings, the November 2004 murder of film director Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam, and the July 2005 London bombings, all committed by radical Islamists, some people in Europe wonder whether Islam is compatible with European values and, accordingly, whether letting the predominantly Muslim Turkey join the EU is a good idea. Will Turkey's EU accession compound Europe's problem with radical Islam, or is Turkey's version of Islam a panacea for Europe's Islamist problem?
- Topic:
- International Relations and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
37. The Sunni Arab Insurgency: A Spent or Rising Force?
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Warnings by Sunni politicians of even greater violence if Sunni Arab concerns are not addressed in the draft Iraqi constitution raise the question: could the insurgency get worse? The answer can be found by examining the insurgency's demographic dimension.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Religion, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
38. Hamas's Tactics: Lessons from Recent Attacks
- Author:
- Jamie Chosak and Julie Sawyer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 22, 2005, Abbas al-Sayyid was convicted of masterminding two Hamas suicide bombings: the March 27, 2002, attack at the Park Hotel in Netanya and the May 18, 2001, shopping mall bombing that killed five and injured one hundred. The Park Hotel bombing, considered the terror group's most devastating attack since the outbreak of the second intifada, had implications extending far beyond the murder of thirty innocent civilians. The attack prompted Israel to launch Operation Defensive Shield, the reoccupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the bombing highlighted Hamas's program of radicalization and recruitment in Palestinian universities and the group's experimentation with chemical and biological agents.
- Topic:
- Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
39. A Hamas Headquarters in Saudi Arabia?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli authorities on September 27 announced the arrest of an Israeli-Arab Hamas activist who played central militant, political, and financing roles for the group in coordination with what Israeli authorities described as a “Hamas command in Saudi Arabia.” The arrest is just the latest evidence that support for Hamas in particular and Islamic extremism in general continues to emanate from within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
40. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
41. Post-Gaza Crises for Religious Zionism in Israel
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank settlements has left in its wake three important crises for the religious Zionist movement that spearheaded settlements in Israel. These crises involve the settlers' future relationships with the Israeli public, the Israeli state, and the political secular right. For settlers, these three relationships are now colored by a sense of betrayal, raising the question of whether disengagement will radicalize the ideological settlers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
42. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground
- Author:
- Dennis Ross
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
43. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement
- Author:
- Aviezer Ravitsky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
44. Deteriorating Security May Short-Circuit Israeli-Palestinian Opportunities
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The June 21 meeting between Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas highlighted the widening expectations gap between the two parties. Less than two months before Israel commences its pullout from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, the security situation is worsening, while the PA appears largely unprepared to assume effective security control over these areas. Without an urgent predisengagement "crash program" to improve security, the opportunity afforded by Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene and Israel's departure from Gaza will be lost.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
45. Gaza Settler Relocation: New Progress, Ongoing Complications
- Author:
- Minda Lee Arrow
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Among the challenges facing the Israeli government in the weeks before the Gaza disengagement commences are relocating evacuated settlers and determining the future of settlement assets. This Peace Watch will examine the former issue; a future Peace Watch will address the latter.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries
46. Deciphering the Bush-Abbas Press Conference
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush welcomed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House Thursday with an unprecedented shower of diplomatic, political, and financial support. Most media attention has focused on two high-profile signs of U.S. backing of Abbas -- Bush's bold characterization of his guest as a "man of courage" and the dispatch of $50 million in direct assistance to the PA. As constructive as these messages were in bolstering the new Palestinian leader, little attention has been given to several other surprising messages Bush delivered -- both by omission and commission -- that could rebound against the administration's twin objectives of strengthening Palestinian democracy and advancing the vision of "two states living side by side in peace and security."
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
47. Debating the Palestinian Election Law
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 18, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) is scheduled to debate the law governing the legislative elections scheduled for July 17, the first such elections since the inaugural polls of 1996. The issues under contention underscore the larger divisions in Palestinian politics, particularly the dominant Fatah PartyÕs internal factionalism and its fear of an increasingly popular Hamas.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
48. From Crawford to Gaza: Countdown to Disengagement
- Author:
- Michael Herzog and Dennis Rose
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 7, 2005, Dennis Ross, Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross is the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2004). Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Brig.-Gen. Herzog, a visiting military fellow at the Institute, was formerly the senior military aide to the defense minister and a peace negotiator. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks; David Makovsky's remarks served as the basis for PeaceWatch no. 498.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Gaza, and Arab Countries
49. Israel in the Territories: From Disengagement to Settlements
- Author:
- Isaac Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 4, 2005, Isaac Herzog addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Herzog was recently named Israel's minister of housing and construction when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon broadened his government to include the Labor Party. Heading a ministry that was key in backing past settlement activity, Mr. Herzog has called for a thorough ministerial review of Israel's settlement policy. A Labor member of the Knesset since 2001, Mr. Herzog previously served as cabinet secretary to Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
50. Assessing the Upcoming Bush-Sharon Summit: Clarifying Ambiguity
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 11, 2005, President George W. Bush will host Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. The meeting comes at a key juncture, given Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank. Mr. Makovsky, who recently returned from a ten-day trip to Israel, the West Bank, Egypt, and Jordan, discussed the upcoming summit at The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum on April 7. This PeaceWatch is based on his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Czech Republic
51. Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria's occupation, Hizballah focuses on rejecting international interference in Lebanese affairs. Yet, if Iran and Hizballah are permitted to fill the void created by a Syrian departure, Lebanon will continue to be subjected to such foreign interference. Such a development would also increase the potential for escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, with possible regional spillover. Accordingly, while encouraging the ongoing historic events in Lebanon and pushing for an end to Syrian domination, the international community should not neglect two other key implications of UN Security Council Resolution 1559: ending the Iranian presence and disarming Hizballah.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria
52. Palestinian Authority Minister of Economy Tied to Hamas?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei. Often described as technocratic and progressive, the cabinet is widely seen as fitting the Bush administration's requirement of being "untainted by terror." Indeed, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice highlighted the new cabinet as one of the "important steps" the Palestinian Authority (PA) had taken toward reform and described this week's London conference, held in support of the PA, as an opportunity to express "international support for their extremely important reform movement." Yet, one cabinet appointment gives reason for concern: the new minister of economy, Mazen Sunuqrut, has close, longstanding ties to Hamas.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
53. Israel's Newly Approved Security Fence Route: Geography and Demography
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Anna Hartman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last week, the Israeli cabinet approved modified routing of the security fence, the first officially sanctioned changes since the cabinet approved construction in October 2003. The modifications, prompted by an Israeli supreme court decision last summer made to avert Palestinian hardship, are characterized by four major adjustments: (1) revised routing in several areas that will bring the fence closer to the Green Line (pre-1967 boundaries); (2) the elimination of all fence routes that create Palestinian enclaves or "double fences" (areas where Palestinians would have been completely encircled by the security fence); (3) the addition—for the first time on any official Israeli map—of fence around the Maale Adumim settlement bloc; and (4) final authorization of fence routing and construction near the Etzion bloc.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
54. Supporting the Palestinian Authority: Will the Oil-Rich Arabs Pay Up?
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 1, British prime minister Tony Blair will host a conference in London dedicated to garnering support for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The summit is intended to help the new Palestinian leadership strengthen PA institutions, with a special focus on facilitating economic development, encouraging donor pledges, and identifying investment opportunities. Israel will not be participating, but Saudi Arabia and several other oil-rich Arab countries will attend. These countries reaped unexpectedly high government revenues in 2004 due to increased oil prices—excluding Iraq, the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw $45 billion in additional revenue compared to 2003. How much of this windfall is offered to bolster the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be seen, at least in Washington, as a key indicator of the willingness of the Arab world to secure a settlement.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
55. A New Palestinian Cabinet
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet presented by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei by a vote of fifty-four to ten, with four abstentions, establishing the first official government appointed after the January election of President Mahmoud Abbas. After a week of political infighting over the makeup of the cabinet, Qurei yielded to pressure from the Fatah bloc and offered a list composed almost exclusively of technocrats with professional expertise in the fields of their respective ministries. Nearly all of Yasser Arafat's political appointees from the old guard were removed. The reformers within Fatah who led the opposition to Qurei compromised as well by agreeing that no sitting member of the council (other than the prime minister and the new deputy prime minister, Nabil Shaath) could be in the cabinet, thereby keeping the most prominent political proponents of reform outside the executive branch.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
56. Sustaining an Israeli-Palestinian Ceasefire
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire announced on February 8 in Sharm al-Sheikh created a window of opportunity that will slam shut quickly if terrorists resume attacks against Israel. After four-and-half years of incessant terrorist activity, Israeli tolerance for negotiating peace in the face of ongoing attacks is nil. The entire project, therefore, is premised on the assumption that the ceasefire will hold. But will it? Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have so far dismissed it, and previously negotiated ceasefires have all failed. Moreover, Iran and Hizballah are more proactively involved in recruiting, training, and financing Palestinian suicide bombers than ever before.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
57. The Era of Mahmoud Abbas: Prospects for Security, Peace, and Reform
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki and Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If new Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is to succeed, he must deal with the issue of violence. Over the past year, positive changes have emerged in all areas of Palestinian public opinion except one: the role of violence. In the eyes of the public, violence pays. Three-fourths of Palestinians perceive the disengagement as a victory for violence. To be sure, more than two-thirds of Palestinians believe that Abbas should negotiate with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon. Yet, the public views Israel's unilateral moves as a threat, not an asset. They see only settlements, closures, checkpoints, and humiliation. These perceptions are responsible for their anger. Abbas must help remove dynamics that encourage the public to believe in the utility of violence; otherwise, the issue will continue to impede his ability to govern effectively.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
58. No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves and, with international support, get down to the formidable tasks facing them in the coming months: stabilization of the security situation, Palestinian institution-building, Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, and Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
59. In Mahmoud Abbas\'s Own Words
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Kenneth Stein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is widely expected to win the presidential elections scheduled for January 9. The media has focused on statements he has made on the campaign trail; below is a survey of his statements on a variety of policy issues over the past several years.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
60. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
- Topic:
- Government, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan
61. Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign an agreement on the delivery of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr power plant is now set for January. Meanwhile, early January will see the second round of negotiations between the Europeans and Iran, which is insisting it will end its voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment unless there is significant progress within the three-month timeframe set in the November 15 Paris Accords. That is no easy matter, given that in response to Iran's demands that the negotiations cover a wide range of security and economic issues, the initial European position evidently was to raise the full set of concerns which led to suspension of EU-Iran talks about a Trade Cooperation Agreement, namely, terrorism (such as al-Qaeda), Middle East peace, human rights, and all of Iran's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
62. When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part II): Historical Realities
- Author:
- Martin Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The usual Western assumption is that "minority rule" is illegitimate and an inversion of natural order. This is, however, a very modern and European idea. Minority rule has a long tradition in the Middle East, where it has never had the same stigma that the modern West attaches to it.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries
63. Challenges Facing the Iraqi Economy
- Author:
- Adil Abd al-Mahdi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Iraqi elections rapidly approach despite an entrenched and violent insurgency, the country's economic challenges are extensive. The government is faced with the momentous task of transforming a war torn, state-dominated economy into a transparent, investment-friendly institution, all during the course of daily political violence.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
64. When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part I): Syria
- Author:
- Ammar Abdulhamid
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When discussing the topic of "minority rule," it is worth remembering that all dictatorships in fact are a form of minority rule, whether it be ethnic, religious, or bureaucratic. Once a minority establishes control over a nation, a crisis of legitimacy for the government will naturally arise. However, after the initial crisis fades, the main objective of those rulers is to establish representative coalitions that function under their control and rules. The norm is that nearly everybody is eventually represented within a system of parochial interests. In order to democratize one cannot champion the cause of the majority, but must instead champion the cause of civic education and citizenship -- otherwise, the country will fall into the trap of sectarian politics.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
65. The Assault on the Iraqi Police
- Author:
- Jeffrey White, Todd Orenstein, and Max Sicherman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Attacks by insurgents on Iraqi police officers and facilities have become a major feature of this stage of the insurgency in Iraq. Hundreds of police personnel have been killed, the police in some areas have been routed by insurgent forces, and police have been penetrated and subverted by the insurgents. Deployed widely and to the neighborhood level in towns and cities, they have become a prime target for the insurgents.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
66. Analyzing the Thaw in Egyptian-Israeli Relations
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The announcement Sunday that Israel would release 170 Palestinian prisoners as a "gesture of goodwill, friendship, and gratitude" to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is the latest in a series of events, statements, and diplomatic activity over the past several weeks that has signaled a warming in Egyptian-Israeli relations. While it is too early to tell whether this thaw can be transformed into a fully constructive relationship, after the death of Yasser Arafat both sides are attempting to work together more closely, at least for now.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Egypt
67. Banning Hizballah TV in America
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt and Avi Jorisch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Seeking to prevent terror propaganda and incitement to terror in America, the U.S. government added al-Manar (Arabic for "the beacon"), the official television mouthpiece of Hizballah, or the Lebanese Party of God, to the Terrorism Exclusion List (TEL). By designating the network as a terrorist organization the government will effectively take Hizballah television off the air in the United States by denying entry to its employees and to anyone who supports the network.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries
68. The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act: Addressing Controversies, Expanding Powers
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Today, President George W. Bush will sign the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (IRTPA), which represents the most dramatic and fundamental changes to the U.S. intelligence community since 1947, when the CIA was created. While public and media attention has been focused on the establishment of a director of national intelligence and a National Counterterrorism Center, other equally important aspects of IRTPA have received far less attention. Perhaps of greatest significance, IRTPA will improve the FBI and Justice Department's ability to combat international terrorism in a variety of ways.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
69. Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Washington to support the European efforts by engaging with Iran. There is a growing chorus claiming that Iran will keep its nuclear program suspended only if offered significant incentives by the United States, such as security guarantees, an end to hostility, or at least normal relations.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries
70. Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror
- Author:
- Daniel Benjamin and Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are a threat not only in the countries in which they operate, but also at the global level. Al-Qaeda's presence throughout the Muslim world comes largely in the form of these groups; attacks in Bali, Yemen, Casablanca, Iraq, and elsewhere have been linked to such affiliates.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries
71. The Eve of Decision: Will Europe Admit Turkey?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Egemen Bagis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 6, 2004, the European Commission released its final report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the EU's accession rules, known as the Copenhagen Criteria. Although the report stated that "Turkey satisfies the Copenhagen Criteria sufficiently" to enter accession talks, many European counties and the EU itself are still debating whether or not to take that step. This fact serves as proof that Turkish accession is not only a technical process -- defined for other candidate countries as satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria -- but also a political one in which other "non-Copenhagen" criteria and expectations play a role. Hence, even though Ankara has satisfied the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkey's EU membership is not yet a certainty.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
72. Saudi Stability in the Shadow of the U.S. Consulate Attack in Jeddah
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The December 6 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, which killed five non-American staff members, was a worrisome display of al-Qaeda's careful planning, detailed timing, and audaciousness. Worse still, the assault contradicts Riyadh's claims that it has contained the threat of terrorism. The incident, which comes at a time of persistent high oil prices, has only exacerbated concerns about some of the most senior members of the ruling al-Saud family with regard to their health and ability to govern.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
73. U.S.-Turkish Cooperation against New Maritime Threats in the Mediterranean Basin
- Author:
- Orhan Babaoglu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 23, 2004, Gen. James Jones, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, praised Operation Active Endeavour (OAE) for its role on the war on terror. OAE is NATO's post-September 11 answer to the question of naval security in the Mediterranean Sea. With the threat of terrorism on the open waters gaining increasing attention, especially in the aftermath of the 2000 USS Cole bombing in Yemen and the September 11 attacks, the Mediterranean basin (including the Black Sea) has become a new focal point for policymakers. The basin lies between three dangerous conflict areas -- the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. Moreover, as a passageway between developed and underdeveloped nations, with access to three strategically important sea passages -- Gibraltar in the west, the Suez Canal in the south, and the Turkish Straits in the north -- the Mediterranean gives terrorists, human traffickers, and drug and arms smugglers easy access to the long and difficult to patrol coastlines of Europe. Is the West doing an adequate job of confronting the new threats in the Mediterranean? What role does the U.S.-Turkish alliance play in this enterprise?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Balkans
74. From Falluja to Elections: A View from Iraq
- Author:
- Ghassan al-Atiyyah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The forces at play in Iraqi politics have changed over the past seventeen months. There is a glaring absence of moderate Iraqis throughout the political scene, within all three major ethno-religious groups -- Shiites, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. The interim government has perpetuated the dominance of the same seven prominent political parties that controlled the Iraqi Governing Council before the June 2004 transfer of sovereignty. Those outside this elite group of parties, especially Sunni Arabs, are frustrated at the perception that their voices are not being heard.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
75. Faces of Battle: The Insurgents in Falluja
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The military outcome of the long-anticipated coalition operation to break the insurgents' control of the city of Falluja was never in doubt. Only the speed of the operation and the casualties inflicted and taken were in question. Ultimately, of course, it remains to be seen if Iraqi and coalition forces can prevent the insurgents from reestablishing a presence in the city. Nevertheless, the fight for Falluja tells us much about the maturing resistance that U.S. and Iraqi troops now face in Iraq. While there are unlikely to be any more battles like Falluja, there will be no cheap or easy victories over the resistance in the battles to come.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
76. Analyzing King Abdullah's Change in the Line of Succession
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Jordan's King Abdullah stripped his younger half brother Hamzeh of the latter's position as crown prince yesterday. He has not yet named a new successor, though by the terms of the Jordanian constitution Abdullah's ten-year-old son Hussein would automatically inherit the throne.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Jordan
77. Clarifying and Strengthening the Iran-European Nuclear Accord
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet to consider Iran's nuclear program, in light of the November 14 Paris Accords between Iran and Britain, France, and Germany (the E3). If the Paris Accords are going to work as a stepping-stone toward ending Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions -- rather than as a stalling tactic while Iran makes progress on that program -- several steps will be necessary to clarify and build on the Paris Accords.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Paris, France, Germany, and Arab Countries
78. How to Win the Battle of Ideas in the War on Terror
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush will enter his second term leading a country that is at war on five fronts at once. Four are clear: in Iraq and Afghanistan, against al-Qaeda and its global affiliates, and within the homeland. The fifth front, however, is the poor stepsister to the other four. It is being fought with an arsenal of outmoded and dysfunctional weaponry, a set of confused and self-defeating battlefield tactics, and no clear strategy for victory. Such is the status of the U.S. effort to fight the "battle of ideas" -- the ideological war to prevent Islamists and their sympathizers from capturing the social, cultural, economic, and political high ground in Muslim societies around the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
79. The Iraq Conference in Egypt: Aims, Risks, and Approaches
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 22-23, officials from several countries will hold a conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, regarding Iraq's future. The meeting will represent the first major international event focused on Iraq since the reelection of President George W. Bush and the resignation of U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell. Though organized to improve international assistance to Iraq, the conference promises risks as well as rewards.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt
80. Inside Hizballah's al-Manar Television
- Author:
- Avi Jorisch and Salamech Nematt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Al-Manar, the official television station of Hizballah, is cited in public opinion polling in some Arab countries as one of the most widely used sources of news on the Arab-Israeli conflict. With ground stations in Lebanon and programming broadcast on seven satellites worldwide, al-Manar is watched by fifteen million viewers daily and has the look of an advanced television network. The professional appearance, however, is not at all complemented by professional, fair, and balanced journalism.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
81. The UAE after Sheikh Zayed: Tensions between Tribe and State
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The November 2 death of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan -- president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ruler of its largest emirate, Abu Dhabi -- had been widely anticipated, and the succession of his eldest son, Khalifa, to both positions has been smooth and faster than expected. Yet, filling the gap left by the man whom local newspapers describe as "visionary" and "sage of the Arab world" is likely to challenge both the al-Nahyan family and its relations with the ruling families in the other emirates.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Abu Dhabi
82. Establishing a National Intelligence Director: Directing U.S. Intelligence Efforts in the Post-September 11 Era
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After an extended absence from public view, Osama bin Laden reappeared in video excerpts aired on al-Jazeera several days before the November 2 election, issuing warnings to the U.S. public about al-Qaeda's intention to continue striking the United States. The incident raises new questions about the extent to which bin Laden is directing terrorist operatives and operations. In recent months, many experts have opined that he is no longer in complete control, and that the groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are operating more independently, with bin Laden's organization serving predominately as a source of inspiration.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries
83. Blair's Visit to Washington: British Politics and the Peace Process
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- British prime minister Tony Blair arrives in Washington on November 11 -- the first foreign leader to visit following President George W. Bush's reelection. The visit confirms Britain's status as America's most supportive ally and Blair's status as the president's closest foreign confidant. But the British leader is likely to use the two days of talks to place distance between himself and Bush. Unless obscured by diplomatic platitudes, the public differences will be most acute over the pace and direction of the Middle East peace process.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
84. Judgment Day: The Second Battle of Falluja
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Coalition and Iraqi government forces are moving to retake Falluja from insurgents who have held the city since April 2004. On the evening of November 8, U.S. troops with large-scale air support began to penetrate at several points, encountering some resistance. The coalition and the Iraqi government are gambling that they can break the insurgents hold on the city with acceptable losses and without a protracted battle. The insurgents are hoping to avoid annihilation, inflict embarrassing losses, create an image of wanton destruction by the coalition and government forces, and force an inconclusive end to the fighting. Indeed, Falluja has become a kind of "Stalingrad on the Euphrates" -- a city imbued with political, military, and symbolic consequence, and a battle whose outcome will have long-term implications.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
85. The Patriot Act and Middle Eastern Terrorists
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- FBI officials recently announced that they are trying to retrace the steps of Dhiren Barot, a suspected al-Qaeda operative who spent time in New Jersey in 2000 and 2001. The FBI is particularly focused on determining whether any of Barot's associates remain in the area. Recently, however, the bureau's ability to investigate this and other international terrorist networks was potentially curtailed when a federal court ruled that a key investigative tool -- a special subpoena referred to as a "National Security Letter" (NSL) -- was unconstitutional. The type of NSL at issue in this case allowed the FBI to obtain customer information from email and internet companies without judicial review and prohibited the companies from ever disclosing that they received an NSL. It is difficult to gauge the full extent to which this ruling will affect the FBI's counterterrorism efforts, since the Department of Justice (DOJ) has released so little information about how it has used NSLs. The DOJ has been equally secretive in its use of many other legal tools established or enhanced by the USA PATRIOT Act. This reticence continues to undermine public confidence in the legislation's necessity, in addition to raising serious civil liberties concerns.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
86. The Iraqi Security Forces (Part II): Challenges and Concerns
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-led coalition and the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) have had to confront both bureaucratic red tape and insurgent terrorism in their effort to recruit, train, and equip the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Nevertheless, progress is being made. Equipment is arriving, ISF personnel are being trained, and the flow of new recruits (motivated by the prospect of stable employment and, in many cases, patriotic pride) continues in the face of terrorist attacks on ISF personnel and facilities. Ultimately, however, success in creating a relatively stable, if not peaceful, Iraq will depend in part on whether the ISF can surmount the operational challenges it is liable to face in the coming months and years, both in conjunction with coalition forces and, ultimately, on its own.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
87. The Iraqi Security Forces (Part I): Background and Current Status
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The counterinsurgency in Iraq has entered a critical phase: the start of operations by U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi forces to pacify insurgent-held areas, smoothing the way for January 2005 elections. In recent weeks, coalition and Iraqi forces have battled insurgents in Tal Afar, Samarra, Mahmudiya, and Latifiya, as well as Sadr City and Haifa Street in Baghdad. They now appear to be preparing to move against Falluja, which has been described by some U.S. officials as the "center of gravity" of the Sunni insurgency.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
88. Weinberg Founders Conference Keynote Address
- Author:
- Wendy Sherman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "One year ago today, Donald Rumsfeld wrote in a memorandum, which later appeared in USA Today, 'Today, we lack metrics to know if we are winning or losing the global war on terror. Are we capturing, killing, or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrasses and the radical clerics are recruiting, training, and deploying against us?' Sadly, painfully, crucially, these critical questions still stand. And the evidence of the last year, to my mind, is not encouraging. . . .
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
89. Weinberg Founders Conference Keynote Address
- Author:
- Stephen Hadley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 15, 2004, Stephen Hadley addressed the 2004 Weinberg Founders Conference. Mr. Hadley is assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor. The following is a selection of excerpts from his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
90. Islam, Islamists, and U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Martin Kramer and Gilles Kepel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- During the Cold War, Washington reached out to some Islamists in order to counter the Soviet threat. Some claim that engaging so-called "moderate" Islamists would serve U.S. interests today. But in any U.S.-Islamist dialogue, the Islamists are certain to demand concessions from the United States, including visas, freedom to raise money for their organizations, U.S. support for their participation in the politics of their home countries, and a reassessment of U.S. policy in the Middle East, including support for Israel. In return, Islamists would propose to condemn terrorist attacks against the United States, and discourage new attacks on American soil.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, and Arab Countries
91. European Union Suggests Turkey Is Not Quite Ready: A Window of Opportunity for the United States
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, Nazli Gencsoy, and Beril Unver
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, issued its report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, the union's membership rules that mandate "rule of law, institutions guaranteeing democracy, and respect for minorities." Although the commission praised Turkey's dramatic reform efforts since 1999, it stopped short of suggesting a date for accession negotiations with Ankara. This represents a departure from established traditions -- apparently only for Turkey, since the commission also reviewed Croatia's candidacy, suggesting a 2005 date for accession talks with that country. In another departure from tradition -- accession talks are normally only close-ended -- the report stated that any negotiations with Ankara "would be open-ended" and that their "outcome cannot be guaranteed." Finally, the report suggested that Turkey further improve its democracy, leaving the final decision on Ankara's membership to the December 17 meeting of the EU Council of Ministers, the union's highest decisionmaking body.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
92. Is the European Union Ready for Turkey?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, will issue its much-anticipated report on whether Turkey has satisfied the EU's accession rules, the Copenhagen Criteria. The report will serve as a recommendation to the EU Council, the top ministerial body of the union, which will meet on December 17 to decide on Turkey's EU accession prospects. Based on the commission's recommendations, the council will either open accession talks with Turkey -- paving the way toward the country's eventual EU membership -- or keep Ankara's application, which dates back to 1987, on the backburner. Is Ankara ready for the EU? And, if so, is Brussels ready for Turkey?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
93. A Ramadan Offensive in Iraq
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Ramadan starts on October 15 or 16, depending on the sighting of the moon. Last year on the first day of Ramadan, five car bombs went off in Baghdad within an hour, including one in front of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) offices. There is a disturbing prospect that the insurgents could try in Ramadan this year to mount a more significant offensive than any attacks to date. Such an offensive would underline the insurgents' claim to act in the cause of Islam; it could significantly complicate plans for elections in Iraq; and it might aim to influence the U.S. elections.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
94. Elections in Saudi Arabia: Assessing the Latest Postponement
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, scheduled to begin in November, have been postponed until 2005. Given that these will be the first public political elections ever to take place in the kingdom, their introduction has been keenly watched, both domestically and from abroad. The latest delay, the second since the original announcement in 2003, indicates that the Saudi royal family is divided over the present usefulness of the sort of broadened political participation that the United States considers vital to combating the militant Islamism of al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. No official reason was given for the change, which was reported on September 12 as being a rescheduling rather than a postponement.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
95. War in Iraq: Looking Forward, Looking Back
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt and Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Surprise in war is inevitable. It is impossible to anticipate all enemy actions or the impact of the social and political forces unleashed by war. To succeed, one must be able to rapidly adjust one's plans when their underlying assumptions are proven wrong. In this regard, the U.S. performance in Iraq has been found wanting. The war brought surprises in four areas: The insurgency. The Sunni insurgency resulted from the way the war was fought by both sides: U.S. forces brought about the rapid collapse of the regime without instilling a sense of defeat among its members, while many members of the regime's security forces survived the war because, whenever possible, they relied on paramilitary forces drawn from the dregs of Iraqi society to do the fighting for them. Moreover, the U.S. failure to realize that the fall of Baghdad did not end the war enabled the resistance to organize itself and stay one step ahead of coalition forces. The United States must prevent further entrenchment of the resistance and stamp out the miniature "republics of fear" that have emerged in the Sunni Triangle and deterred many residents from embracing the Iraqi Interim Government. It must be remembered, however, that successful counterinsurgency campaigns often take years to bear results. The question is whether the U.S. presence will become politically untenable before Iraqi political and security structures are in place.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
96. Gaining Ground—Resistance in Iraq since the Transition (Part II): Effects and Implications
- Author:
- Jeffrey White, Todd Orenstein, and Max Sicherman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The effects of resistance operations have been felt in terms of stability and governance, reconstruction, and military security. Sunni resistance has removed some areas from government and coalition control and permitted the emergence of local rule by anticoalition and antigovernment elements. Officials working with the government have been killed, wounded, kidnapped, or otherwise intimidated, again with the effect of limiting government influence.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
97. Gaining Ground—Resistance in Iraq since the Transition (Part I): Evolution and Status
- Author:
- Jeffrey White, Todd Orenstein, and Max Sicherman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The prospects for violence in Iraq were much discussed in the period leading to the June 28, 2004, transition to Iraqi sovereignty. The "smart money" was on the expectation that violence against the transitional government and coalition forces would increase. This has proved to be the case, with Sunni-based resistance actions in Iraq increasing in number, scope, sophistication, and lethality. Between the beginning of June and the end of August, some 150 U.S. soldiers have been killed in action and 1,977 have been wounded. It is now possible to speak not only of certain cities that have slipped beyond coalition or government control (such as Falluja, Ramadi, and Samarra), but also of "zones of resistance" that extend across multiple cities and towns in Sunni Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
98. The IAEA and Iran: The Perils of Inaction
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Deep divisions among the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently meeting in Vienna, continue to hamper U.S. efforts on two key fronts: pressing Iran to suspend work on its nuclear program, and referring allegations of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the UN Security Council. With the current meeting unlikely to produce tangible steps to halt Iran's nuclear program, it is important to understand the potential consequences of Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
99. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries
100. A 'Muslim Refusenik' in Pursuit of Reform in Islam
- Author:
- Irshad Manji
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 7, 2004, Irshad Manji addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ms. Manji is host of the Canadian public television program Big Ideas and author of the bestselling book The Trouble with Islam: A Muslim's Call for Reform in her Faith (2004). She is currently launching "Operation Ijtihad," an initiative to revive Islam's lost tradition of independent thinking. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arabia