Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: International Relations

101. Containing Hizballah's Terrorist Wing

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As part of the international effort to ensure that the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel can become a sustainable ceasefire, much attention has been paid to blocking arms shipments to Hizballah, as called for in UN Security Council Resolution 1701. But another threat to peace in the region is Hizballah's potent terrorist wing. Arguably its most dangerous offensive weapon, Hizballah's terrorist wing was active throughout this recent conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

102. The Damascus-Hizballah Axis: Bashar al-Asad's Vision of a New Middle East

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 15, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad gave a significant policy speech to the Syrian Journalists Union in which he expressed his support for Hizballah. More importantly, the address sought to redefine Syria's position in the Arab world. Building on Washington's talk of the birth of a new Middle East, Asad described his own vision for a new Middle East, one with an empowered Arab resistance, a weakened Israel, and a renewed regional unity against Western interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

103. Syria's Role in the War in Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker and Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent developments related to the war in Lebanon—a warning from Damascus that Israeli forces in Lebanon should keep away from the Syrian border, the placement of Syrian forces on a heightened state of alert, the explosion of a crude improvised explosive device (IED) on the Syrian side of the Golan, President Bashar al-Asad's bellicose August 1 Army Day speech, Syrian facilitation of Iranian efforts to resupply Hizballah, and Israeli attempts to interdict these supply lines through air strikes along the Lebanon-Syria border—have prompted concerns that the fighting in Lebanon could escalate to involve Syria. Warnings from Damascus that an international stabilization force for Lebanon would be seen as an army of occupation, and therefore a legitimate target of resistance, have likewise raised the possibility that Syria might sponsor or support attacks on such a force, as it sponsored attacks against the Multi-National Force (MNF) in Beirut in 19821984.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

104. Why a Multinational Force is Essential in Lebanon

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Lebanon plunges deeper into ruin and chaos as a result of Hizballah's “gang war” tactics against Israel's expanded military campaign to degrade the power of the Islamist party, Hizballah, Syria, and its allies in Lebanon are devising plans to subvert an international agreement on a multinational force to guard the Israel-Lebanon border. They are also preparing for a political comeback in a postconflict Lebanon by riding the wave of the victory Hizballah is sure to claim whatever the outcome—a supposed triumph that in reality will be at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

105. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

106. The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The critical question of whether or not the current conflict in Lebanon will escalate to a broader regional war is being answered in two overly simple ways. One such analysis is that this is a “meltdown” with escalating violence and mounting pressures for further escalation. A second, equally simplistic view is that since no one has an interest in escalating to a regional conflict it will not happen. Both of these views do not account for the complex set of dynamics and the real possibility that accident and error can intervene.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

107. An International Stabilization Force for Lebanon: Problems and Prospects

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As diplomacy to halt the violence in Lebanon slowly gathers momentum, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has endorsed the idea of an international “stabilization force” to keep the peace, seconding proposals previously put forward by UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, British prime minister Tony Blair, and European Union foreign policy envoy Javier Solana. Such a force, however, is liable to face major obstacles and incur substantial risks that could jeopardize its prospects for success. For this reason it is essential to consider what past experiences in Lebanon, the Middle East, and elsewhere teach about peacekeeping and peace enforcement operations, the sort of challenges such a force could encounter, and the kind of mandate and capabilities required to meet these challenges.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

108. Hizballah's Global Terror Option

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

109. Hamas and Israel: From Isolation to Confrontation

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 10, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Makovsky and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

110. Reactions in the Middle East to the Israel-Lebanon Crisis

Author:: Rana Shaab, Nicholas Ravella, Nathan Hodson, and Daniel Fink
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The outbreak of hostilities after Hizballah's July 12 raid into Israel, in which it captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, has elicited a variety of responses from government officials and other prominent figures throughout the Middle East. Though it is not surprising to see harsh statements about Israel, it is unusual to see Arab leaders criticizing Hizballah for its role in precipitating the conflict. The usually cautious Saudi authorities implicitly criticized Hizballah for adventurism; is seems that Riyadh may be wary of Iranian influence. The following is a sampling of Middle Eastern reactions, compiled from various regional and international media sources.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

111. Jordan Looks Inward: The Hashemite Kingdom in the Wake of Zarqawi and the Hamas-Israel Clash

Author:: Samer Abu Libdeh
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Even while Israelis and Palestinians are locked in deepening conflict over the kidnapping of a young Israeli soldier and the future of the Hamas government, political life on the East Bank of the Jordan River is increasingly focused on internal Jordanian concerns.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

112. Hizballah: Learning to Live with Resolution 1559

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hizballah has been deployed along the blue line, the internationally accepted border between Lebanon and Israel, since May 2000 when the Israeli army left southern Lebanon. Hizballah's fulltime strength is 500–600 well trained, combat experienced fighters, but in an emergency the organization can also call upon thousands of other fighters with elementary training. Training continues in the eastern Bekaa valley, although at a much reduced rate compared to the 1990s. At present, Hizballah uses Shebaa Farms to justify its military operations and continued weapons possession, a rationale based on the claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese territory occupied by Israel, even as the United Nations considers this territory to be Syrian.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

113. Tracking Hamas's Leadership: Insights into the Organization's Structure and Evolution

Author:: Christopher Hamilton
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Taken together, the kidnapping on Sunday of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and the signing on Tuesday of an agreement among Palestinian factions to create a unity government for the Palestinian Authority (PA) suggest that significant seismic forces may be developing within Hamas that may have a decisive impact both on the organization's solidarity and on the future course of Israeli-Palestinian relations. While the unity agreement itself has little significance beyond internal Palestinian politics—it is a nonstarter for the Israelis and represents a major retreat from previous Palestinian positions—its importance lies in the fact that it highlights the possible emergence of a fissure within the Hamas organization between its internal leaders, headed by Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, who experience the brunt both of popular concerns and Israeli reprisals, and its external leaders, chief among them Damascus-based Khaled Mashal, who are free of these constraints and therefore able to insist on more maximalist positions. However, in signing this agreement—apparently without full consultation with, or the approval of, the Damascus contingent—the Hamas leaders in the territories have signaled both their independence and their intention to embark on a more pragmatic path than that preferred by Hamas's more ideological external elements. Indeed, the timing and nature of the attack seems to have been specifically intended to disrupt the effort to agree on a unity government with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and thereby, the possible emergence of a more moderate Hamas strategy.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

114. Abbas, Hamas, and the Referendum Trap

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's pursuit of a referendum on the Palestinian National Accord has been widely interpreted by commentators and reporters as a power play designed to circumvent the Hamas-led government and force it to implicitly accept Israel's existence. But while the process of conducting a referendum -- the legality of which remains questionable -- would shift power away from the government and the legislature, the actual text of the document, which a group of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails negotiated, more closely resembles the political program of Hamas than that of Abbas. Moreover, Hamas has recovered from its initial surprise at the referendum initiative and has mounted an effective response, first by challenging the legality of a referendum, then by dragging Abbas into negotiations over the substance of the Accord. Despite a possible compromise that may emerge in coming days and shift the composition of the government or modify the language of the Accord, Hamas has used the internal Palestinian debate over a referendum to secure its internal legitimacy and advance many of its governing priorities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

115. Three Legacies: Ataturk, Inonu, and Ozal and the Making of the U.S.-Turkish Relationship

Author:: Eric Edelman
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Sayin arkadashlar merhaba. Hello, my good friends. It is an honor to be here today to deliver this years Turgut Ozal lecture. I would like to thank The Washington Institute, Rob Satloff, Soner Cagaptay, and in particular, Mark Parris, one of my distinguished predecessors as ambassador to Turkey, for inviting me. This institutions excellent work in promoting U.S.-Turkish relations does not go unnoticed and I am proud to be a part of it. In fact, I would argue that the Institutes work on Turkey is more important now than it has ever been. I would also like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the important efforts of my successor, Ambassador Ross Wilson, who with great dedication and skill works everyday at maintaining our strong relations.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

116. Understanding the Middle East: A View from inside the Mossad

Author:: Efraim Halevy
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the current global circumstances, the role of intelligence gathering and analysis in policymaking has become increasingly important. As a result, intelligence leaders have ever more influence in the policymaking process. This is particularly the case in Israel, where some of the political leadership's most significant decisions came on the heels of Mossad and Military Intelligence initiatives and assessments.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem

117. Funding Alternatives to Hamas

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 7, the State Department announced its plan for restructuring aid to the Palestinians in response to the formation of a government led by Hamas, which has refused Quartet demands to recognize Israel, cease violence and terror, and accept past diplomatic agreements. In order to target assistance toward the Palestinian people rather than the Hamas leadership, the United States will now provide the vast majority of its aid (some $203 million) for humanitarian needs, including food, health, and education programs primarily administered by United Nations agencies such as the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the UN World Food Program. An additional $42 million is allocated for "securing and expanding democracy," in an effort that "protects and promotes moderation and democratic alternatives to Hamas." Assisting the development of such a peaceful and democratic alternative -- as distinct from an immediate overthrow of Hamas -- will require the United States to support programs driven internally by Palestinians that can foster a broad-based political movement. Bolstering a centralized Fatah-like organization run by elites will only lead to further corruption and the continued alienation of the Palestinian public.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

118. Quelling Iraq's Sectarian Violence: What the United States Can Do

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The ongoing debate over whether or not Iraq is on the verge or in the midst of a civil war is a distraction from the main challenge the United States now faces in Iraq: how to reduce or contain sectarian (and ethnic) violence that could derail the political process and drag Iraq's neighbors into the conflict. That said, the recent increase in sectarian violence following the attack on Samarra's Askariyya Shrine does not necessarily alter the fundamental character of the conflict: attacks on Shiites have long been an important element of Sunni Arab insurgent operations, although Shiites have only recently begun striking back in a sustained way. The violence does, however, have the potential to spiral out of control should another insurgent attack damage an important Shiite shrine or result in very large loss of life.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

119. Lebanese National Dialogue: Avoiding the Hard Questions?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 22, leaders from across the Lebanese political spectrum completed another round of the ongoing National Dialogue. The talks, which started earlier this month, have touched on some of the more salient topics in Lebanese politics. Conspicuously absent from the agenda, however, has been a discussion of disarming militias, such as Hizballah, a key element of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. The indefinite postponement of this critical issue will make it difficult for the United States to continue to actively support its democratic allies in post-Syria Lebanon.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

120. Palestinian Economic Dependence on Israel

Author:: Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the international donor community struggles to determine its stance on aid to the Palestinians under the Hamas government, it is important to remember the extent to which the Palestinian economy is dependent upon Israeli decisions. Last year the international community gave the Palestinians $1.4 billion in aid; Israel has the potential to affect at least that sum through its policies on trade, Palestinian workers in Israel, and the tax revenue it collects.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

121. The Shape of Israel's Election Race

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a surprise move prior to Israel's March 28 election, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert unveiled a proposal that Israeli settlers be consolidated into West Bank settlement blocs largely adjacent to the Green Line. A week after the announcement, Israeli public reaction suggests his gamble seems to have paid off. According to a Yediot Ahronot poll released on March 17, Israelis favor Olmert's unilateralist proposal by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent. Moreover, Olmert's poll standing was not negatively impacted by the proposal, despite the fact that it could mean the removal of an estimated 60,000 settlers from dozens of settlements scattered across the larger part of the West Bank outside Israel's security barrier. (Inside the Israeli security barrier, there are approximately 193,000 settlers, mostly in blocs, in the 8 percent of the West Bank largely adjacent to the pre-1967 boundaries. By comparison, President Clinton's final proposal in 2000 involved Israel keeping 5 percent of the land.) An Olmert security advisor and former Shin Bet head, Avi Dichter, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will not be withdrawn from the West Bank. Olmert was able to use his commanding lead to answer critics who say that the new party leader lacks Ariel Sharon's track record and therefore the authority to ask the public to trust his decisions. In the March 17 poll, Olmert's Kadima stood to win 39 seats in the 120-seat Knesset; Labor was polling at 19 seats and Likud, 15 seats. Olmert's standing was undoubtedly assisted by Israel's March 15 operation to seize from a Jericho prison the assassins of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi. Olmert hopes the operation will burnish his security credentials and undercut Netanyahu's argument that he is uniquely tough enough to challenge Hamas. (Olmert needs to be concerned about the 22 percent of Israelis who are undecided—the equivalent of twenty-five Knesset seats.)
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

122. Responding to Hamas's Triumph

Author:: David Makovsky, Patrick Clawson, and Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 3, 2006, Marc Otte, Patrick Clawson, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Otte is the European Union's special representative for the Middle East peace process. Dr. Clawson, The Washington Institute's deputy director for research, is author with Zoe Danon Gedal of the Institute monograph Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

123. Where to Draw the Line on International Assistance to the Palestinians?

Author:: David Makovsky, Michael Herzog, and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the immediate aftermath of Hamas's parliamentary victory in late January, the Quartet—the United States, the EU, Russia, and the UN—set clear criteria for funding a Palestinian Authority (PA) under Hamas's leadership. The Quartet said direct funding would be a function of the new government's “commitment to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Roadmap.” Indeed, there is no other example of taxpayers subsidizing a government run by an organization that appears on State Department and EU terror lists.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

124. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

125. The Security Implications of a Hamas-Led Palestinian Authority

Author:: Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 8, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon served until June 2005 as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. The following is a transcript of his remarks. “Hamas's recent victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections challenges all those actors currently invested in promoting change in the Middle East. These include Israel, Western nations, Arab democrats, and Palestinian moderates. Adding to this challenge is the perception of radical Islamists—Sunni and Shiite alike—that Hamas's victory is a defeat for U.S. policy in the region, a blow to democratization, and a victory for Islamist fundamentalism.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

126. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?

Author:: Emily Hunt
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

127. Turkey: Between the West and the Middle East

Author:: Yigit Alpogan
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 24, 2006, Yigit Alpogan, secretary-general of Turkey's National Security Council, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Alpogan, who assumed his current post in August 2004 as the first civilian head of the Turkish National Security Council, previously served as the Turkish ambassador to Greece and Turkmenistan as well as deputy undersecretary of foreign affairs. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

128. Hamas's Rise and Israel's Choice

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 23, 2006, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff addressed the 2006 Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel's National Security. Excerpts from Dr. Satloff's remarks follow. “Beware the unintended consequences of sound policies. On June 24, 2002, President Bush announced a major shift in U.S. policy. No longer would fulfillment of diplomatic requirements—that is, acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 242 or recognizing Israel's right to exist—alone merit the full engagement of the United States in assisting Palestinians as they try to achieve their legitimate rights through negotiations with Israel. From then on, how they handled themselves at home—whether they are corrupt, whether they are democratic, whether they are, as the president said, 'untainted by terrorism'—would all matter.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Middle East

129. America and the Middle East, circa 2006

Author:: James F. Hoge Jr. and Stuart Rothenberg
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Barring any unforeseen developments in the region, there will be very little change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East this year. Terrorism will remain the top priority overall. In addition, the Bush administration will continue to maintain the priorities that have defined American approaches over recent decades, such as preserving energy supplies, containing strife, ensuring Israel's existence, and working with allies such as Turkey. Further, the White House will reiterate its condemnations of the Syrian regime—though it will refrain from more active policies of regime change for fear that a new government would be even worse. However, the issues of democratization, Iraqi development, the Iranian nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will also be high on the agenda in 2006.
Topic:: International Relations and Development
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, and Middle East

130. A Tale of Two Countries: Defining Post-Syria Lebanon

Author:: Michael Young
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Shiite ministers recently “suspended” their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions. The other reflects a cross-communal parliamentary majority, the cornerstone of which is the Sunni-led Future Movement of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

131. Khaddam's Revelations: Is the Asad Regime Unraveling?

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Abdul Halim Khaddam, who was vice-president of Syria from 1984 to June 2005, gave an explosive interview to the Dubai-based al-Arabia TV on December 30 implicating the Syrian leadership, including President Bashar al-Asad, in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Khaddam's action widened irrevocably the crack in Syria's political system.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East

132. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections

Author:: Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

133. 'Outsourcing' de facto Statehood: Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova

Author:: Daniel Gros and Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The European Union is suffering a deep crisis: disdain, disillusionment and distrust top the list of prevailing sentiments towards the European institutions, as was brought home dramatically by the failed referenda on the Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Moldova, Middle East, France, Georgia, and Netherlands

134. Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss

Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Middle East is immersed in its worst crisis in years following the capture of three Israeli soldiers by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Lebanese Party of God (Hizbollah) in late June 2006 and early July, Israel's comprehensive offensive throughout the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and the daily firing of rockets deep into Israel. And horrific as it is, the current toll of death and destruction could reach entirely different proportions should a new threshold be crossed – a Hizbollah rocket that strikes a chemical plant or a heavily populated area in Tel Aviv or Haifa, an Israeli bombing raid resulting in massive casualties, a major ground offensive, or the expansion of the war to Syria or Iran. A political solution to the twin crises of Lebanon and Palestine must be the international community's urgent priority. Waiting and hoping for military action to achieve its purported goals will have not only devastating humanitarian consequences: it will make it much harder to pick up the political pieces when the guns fall silent.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

135. Libya and the United States: The Next Steps

Author:: Ronald Bruce St. Jon
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: On the evening of December 19, 2003, the Libyan Foreign Ministry issued a statement, the product of nine months of tough negotiations with the United Kingdom and United States, renouncing weapons of mass destruction and related missile delivery systems. The statement said Libya had “decided, with its own free will, to get rid of these substances, equipment and programmes and to be free from all internationally banned weapons.” It added Libya intended to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime, the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea) Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol, and international biological and chemical weapons agreements and treaties. It pledged to “take these measures in a transparent way that could be proved, including accepting immediate international inspection.” Soon after the issuance of this statement, Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi publicly endorsed the move, terming it a “wise decision and a courageous step.”
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

136. The Carter Center News Spring 2006

Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Palestinian parliamentary election results surprised world leaders, international observers, and even Palestinians themselves when Hamas won a majority of the seats in January 2006.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

137. Draft Constitution Gained, but an Important Opportunity Was Lost

Author:: Mona Iman
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: While the outcome of Iraq's October 15 national referendum is uncertain, it is clear that many of Iraq's Sunni Arabs will vote against it. Why are Sunni Arabs opposed to a constitution that appears to give them the same opportunities for self-governance that it provides to Kurds and Shia?
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

138. Beyond Bonn: Revisioning the International Compact for Afghanistan

Author:: Peter Middlebrook and Mark Sedra
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The Bonn Agreement, signed on December 5, 2001, provided the road map for the transformation of the Afghan state, culminating in the September 18, 2005 legislative elections. The landmark polls, which proceeded largely peacefully, have elected an Afghan Parliament for the first time in more than three decades. Although the Bonn political process has made great strides toward facilitating Afghanistan's transition to democracy, the costs and challenges associated with the reform agenda are immense and continue to spiral. With a narrow revenue base, Afghanistan will remain dependent on support from the international community for many years to come, not just to cover the capital costs associated with reconstruction and poverty reduction but also to underwrite core operating expenditures. Once funding for Coalition military operations is factored in, the cost of maintaining relative peace and stability in Afghanistan could exceed the $16-18 billion per year currently being spent—a prohibitively high figure in light of creeping donor fatigue. With the security situation in the country still volatile, regional posturing intensifying, and the United States signaling that troop withdrawals are imminent, Afghanistan's transition remains fragile and uncertain. Senior Washington officials already quietly acknowledge that the reform process has failed to maintain the critical momentum that the Afghan government's landmark report, Securing Afghanistan's Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward, appeared to generate when it was launched at the spring 2004 Berlin Donors Conference.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

139. Karen Hughes' Indonesia Visit Underscores Bush Administration's PR Problems

Author:: Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: It is doubtful that the Bush administration will be very successful advancing America's image in the Islamic world as long as its representatives have such trouble telling the truth. A case in point took place on October 21, when U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes was talking before a group of university students in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. As she has found elsewhere in her visits in the Islamic world, there is enormous popular opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the ongoing U.S. counter-insurgency war.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Indonesia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia

140. The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons

Author:: Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The election of the hard-line Teheran mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over former President Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani as the new head of Iran is undeniably a setback for those hoping to advance greater social and political freedom in that country. It should not necessarily be seen as a turn to the right by the Iranian electorate, however. The 70-year old Rafsanjani — a cleric and penultimate wheeler-dealer from the political establishment — was portrayed as the more moderate conservative. The fact that he had become a millionaire while in government was apparently seen as less important than his modest reform agenda. By contrast, the young Teheran mayor focused on the plight of the poor and cleaning up corruption.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

141. A Strategy for Ending the Iraq War

Author:: Tom Hayden
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: In January 2005, a group of fifty peace activists from the Vietnam and Iraq eras issued a global appeal to end the war (online at http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/20996/). The appeal proposed undermining the pillars of war (public opinion, funding, troop recruitment, international allies) and building the pillars of peace and justice (an independent anti-war movement linked to justice issues, a progressive Democratic opposition, soldiers and families against the war, a global network to stop the US empire). This is an update on implementation of the strategy.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

142. Fuelling Mistrust Between Iran and the United States

Author:: Roger Howard
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Imagine your reaction if, during last November's presidential contest, the mullahs of Iran had suddenly launched a tirade of criticism against the American system of democracy and beamed their message onto our television sets and radios for all of us to hear: democracy in the United States, the mullahs might perhaps have claimed, is a corrupt process that is determined largely by the influence of the wealthiest donors, and a process that wholly fails to address the religious needs of a secular, materialist culture.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

143. The Me Too Club

Author:: Tad Daley
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The "nuclear option" may have receded in the U.S. Senate for the time being. Unfortunately, it's still very much on the table for the two newest aspirants to the nuclear club. Not to mention those who already have their membership cards.
Topic:: International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

144. How to End the Occupation of Iraq: Outmaneuver the War Proponents

Author:: Gareth Porter
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: For an anti-war activist of the Vietnam era, the current search for a political strategy for ending the U.S. occupation of Iraq brings to mind the very similar problems facing the movement to end the Vietnam War in 1968-69. In fact, a review of the strategy that the anti-war movement pursued at that juncture of the Vietnam War helps clarify the choices before the present movement and their likely consequences. It should serve as a warning against ignoring the possibility of embracing the negotiation of a compromise peace agreement with those resisting the U.S. occupation as an anti-war strategy.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Vietnam

145. Iran: Rogue State?

Author:: Ali Mostashari
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Iran is now an important focal point for U.S. foreign policy. Yet many have argued that the United States lacks a coherent foreign policy on Iran, amounting to no more than an enormous list of “evils”: namely, that Iran exports its radical Islamist revolution, supports Hezbollah and Hamas and actively opposes the Middle East peace process, is building nuclear and biological weapons capacity, was involved in the bombings of the Jewish center in Buenos Aires and the Khobar towers in Saudi Arabia, provides Al-Qaeda with safe passage and refuge, helps insurgents in Iraq, assassinates its own dissidents and oppresses its people, and so on.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

146. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq

Author:: Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

147. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Author:: Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

148. Yemeni President Saleh Comes to Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson and Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The November 10 meeting at the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh will be the third time the two men have met since the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. Yemen is an oft-forgotten close U.S. ally, arguably as crucial to the success of the war on terror as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Egypt. The south Arabian country, with its rugged, desert landscape, remains a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives. With seacoasts along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen dominates the Bab el-Mandab shipping chokepoint, the route by which oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the Suez Canal and hence the European market. (A French supertanker was badly damaged in an al-Qaeda attack off the Yemeni coast in 2002.)
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

149. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation

Author:: Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

150. Turkey and Europe's Problem with Radical Islam

Author:: Soner Cagaptay, Düden Yegenoglu, and Ekim Alptekin
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey opened accession talks with the European Union (EU) on October 3. In the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid bombings, the November 2004 murder of film director Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam, and the July 2005 London bombings, all committed by radical Islamists, some people in Europe wonder whether Islam is compatible with European values and, accordingly, whether letting the predominantly Muslim Turkey join the EU is a good idea. Will Turkey's EU accession compound Europe's problem with radical Islam, or is Turkey's version of Islam a panacea for Europe's Islamist problem?
Topic:: International Relations and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

151. The New Turkish Economy and EU Accession Talks

Author:: Meral Varis
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now that negotiations toward full Turkish membership in the European Union (EU) have begun, what are the prospects for the Turkish economy? In particular, could Turkey attract significant global investment and take off economically as happened in Spain, Portugal, and Greece in the 1980s and Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in the 1990s when those countries negotiated for EU accession?
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, and Portugal

152. Syria's Response to the Mehlis Report

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The long-awaited report by the international commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri was released on October 21. Overseen by UN chief investigator Detlev Mehlis, the report concluded, "Given the infiltration of Lebanese institutions and society by the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services working in tandem, it would be difficult to envisage a scenario whereby such a complex assassination plot could have been carried out without their knowledge." The dynamics engendered by the report, coupled with the political atmosphere of gloom pervading Syria, confront the Bashar al-Asad regime with a bitter choice: accept international demands or go down the self-destructive path of continuing with its old political mindset and flawed one party rule.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Syria

153. A Bedouin on a Camel? Saudi Foreign Policy and the Insurgency in Iraq

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iraq's interior minister, Bayan Jabr, lashed out at Saudi diplomacy while speaking to journalists in Amman on October 2. Referring to Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, Jabr said Iraq would not be lectured by "some Bedouin riding a camel." Broadening his remarks to the Saudi ruling family, the House of Saud, the Iraqi minister said, "There are regimes that are dictatorships; they have one god, he is the king, he is god of heaven and earth, and he rules as he likes. A whole country is named after a family."
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, and Middle East

154. The Sunni Arab Insurgency: A Spent or Rising Force?

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Warnings by Sunni politicians of even greater violence if Sunni Arab concerns are not addressed in the draft Iraqi constitution raise the question: could the insurgency get worse? The answer can be found by examining the insurgency's demographic dimension.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

155. The Black Sea Basin: A New Axis in Global Maritime Security

Author:: Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR), a regional maritime security initiative started by Turkey in 2001, was activated August 14-27. With world attention devoted to Iraq and the Middle East, important developments in the nearby Black Sea region involving energy politics, frozen conflicts, and new regional security initiatives have gone mostly unnoticed. The Black Sea is a stable but complex basin with vast economic resources and strategic importance as a medium for energy transportation. Is the Black Sea a bridge or a barrier between United States and Turkey? Does the issue of Black Sea security provide an opportunity to mend deteriorated relations or a new source of friction?
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

156. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq: A Progress Report

Author:: Jeffrey White, Jack Keane, and Francis West
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Daily images of carnage from Iraq and uncertainty over how to measure coalition progress continue to stoke debate in the United States. How does one assess the status of the insurgency? How are the efforts to recruit and train Iraq's security forces proceeding? What are America's options in Iraq?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Syria

157. Anatolian Eagle Air Warfare Training: A Valuable Turkish Contribution to NATO, the United States, and the World

Author:: Haluk Sahar
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Anatolian Eagle is one of the largest and most complex joint air force exercises in the world, paralleled only by Red Flag, held periodically at Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base, and the annual Maple Flag exercise in Canada. The Turkish Air Force (TUAF) is now preparing for the multinational leg of the next Anatolian Eagle, scheduled to take place September 12-23. Anatolian Eagle has obvious public relations value for Turkey and its air force as hosts of the event. Moreover, as an exercise mimicking realistic aerial war minutes away from the U.S. forces, it also serves as an important component of U.S.-Turkish military cooperation.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

158. The U.S.-Turkish Relationship beyond Iraq: Common Values, Common Agenda

Author:: R. Nicholas Burns
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 18, 2005, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns addressed The Washington Institute's Seventh Turgut Ozal Memorial Lecture. Undersecretary Burns's prepared remarks were delivered by Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Daniel Fried. The following are excerpts from the speech followed by a summary of the subsequent question-and-answer session. "Today, we have all gathered to honor Turgut Ozal, a strong leader with a clear vision of Turkey's future. Ozal — who we as Americans are proud to call a close friend — sought tirelessly to advance Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's legacy, his dream of a modern, democratic Turkey anchored in the West....
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

159. The New Lebanon: Democratic Reform and State Sponsorship

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 19, Lebanon's incoming prime minister, Fuad Siniora, announced the formation of a new Lebanese cabinet, a move praised in Washington as another step toward democratic reform. At the same time, the State Department warned that it would not be able to maintain contact with newly appointed Minister of Energy and Water Muhammad Fneish, who is a member of Hizballah. Beyond the fact that U.S. officials are prohibited by law from dealing with members of officially designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations like Hizballah, Fneish's appointment raises the larger question of how to deal with the extensive presence of active terrorist groups in a Lebanon no longer dominated by Syria.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

160. The Three-Way Game: Iran, Iraq, and the United States

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi's preparatory visit to Iran on July 5–7. At a joint press conference on July 7 with his Iranian counterpart, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the Iraqi official fell victim to the oldest trick in the Iranian diplomatic playbook. Speaking well beyond what had been agreed by the two sides, Shamkhani announced “wide defense cooperation” and alluded to the imminent conclusion of a defense pact between the two countries (as Iran has done in the past with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). Al-Dulaimi was likewise forced to clarify the limited nature of the discussions while also taking pains to state, “Iraq will not be a source of insecurity and instability for any of its neighbors. Nobody can use [Iraqi territory] to attack its neighbors.” The message to both Tehran and Washington was clear: the three-way game between the governments of Iran, Iraq, and the United States has begun again. With Iraq caught in the middle, Baghdad intends to play an increasingly autonomous role as the game unfolds.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

161. Freezing U.S. Assets of Syrian Officials

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 11, al-Seyassah, an independent Kuwaiti newspaper, reported that Syrian president Bashar al-Asad froze the assets of his country's minister of interior affairs, Ghazi Kanaan. If so, that is surely a reaction to Kanaan's June 30 designation—along with Chief of Syrian Military Intelligence for Lebanon Rustum Ghazali—by the U.S. Treasury Department as a Specially Designated National (SDN) under Executive Order (EO) 13338. The two were cited for directing “Syria's military and security presence in Lebanon and/or contributing to Syria's support for terrorism.”
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Kuwait, and Syria

162. The Gleneagles G8 Summit: Middle Eastern Issues on the Agenda

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beginning on July 6, British prime minister Tony Blair will host the G8 summit in Gleneagles, a hotel and golf course in Scotland. Africa and climate change are the two main topics on the agenda, but counterterrorism, proliferation, and political reform in the Middle East are scheduled to be discussed as well. The annual G8 summit has become the sole forum in which the leaders of the seven top industrialized countries (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) and Russia meet to discuss and decide on courses of action. Diplomatic grandstanding and expected antiglobalization demonstrations aside, the summit is an opportunity to set the international political and bureaucratic agenda for months ahead.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Middle East, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Scotland

163. Netanyahu's Victory: Major Challenges for the Likud Party

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli prime minister and recently resigned finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu won the Likud leadership primary on December 19, beating the foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, by a margin of 45 percent to 33 percent. Netanyahu returns to the leadership of Likud, which he vacated after his loss in the 1999 election. Netanyahu's victory comes a day after Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon suffered what his doctors called a mild stroke; he was released from the hospital within forty-eight hours. At seventy-seven, Sharon already shares the record for the oldest Israeli prime minister; David Ben-Gurion was seventy-seven when he resigned in 1963. Sharon turns seventy-eight in February.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

164. Opening Gaza to the Wider World: The Israeli-Palestinian Agreement on Movement and Access

Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 25, Palestinians celebrated the opening of their first self-governed external passage, the Rafah border crossing that separates the Gaza Strip from Egypt. Following months of negotiations, on November 15 Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) reached the Agreement on Movement and Access, governing the flow of people and goods into and from the Gaza Strip. Isreal's disengagement from the whole of Gaza, including the border with Egypt, made an accord on border crossings necessary. The agreement was achieved through extensive mediation by Quartet's special envoy, James Wolfensohn, and at the final stage through the unprecedented involvement of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The agreement is an attempt to balance Israeli security concerns with Palestinian political, humanitarian, and economic concerns.
Topic:: International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

165. Political Participation and Palestinian Legislative Elections

Author:: Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the leadup to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's October 20 visit to Washington, the Bush administration urged the Palestinian Authority (PA) to tighten rules enacted in 1995 and change the law governing upcoming Palestinian legislative elections to make it clear that candidates, even those backed by Hamas or other militant groups, could not incite violence or keep ties with militias. However, the PA seems unlikely to adopt this approach, in part because the administration reportedly backed away from its position. What alternative strategies exist for limiting Hamas's political influence?
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

166. Abbas's Missed Opportunities in Washington

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas returned to Ramallah from Washington last week having missed a key opportunity to spur President George W. Bush to reengage in the Roadmap. Instead, the October 20 joint press conference at the White House concluded with Bush acknowledging that his presidency may not witness the creation of a Palestinian state by 2008. His administration, Bush said, might merely “lay that foundation so that the process becomes irreversible.” The same administration that two years ago endorsed the Quartet's Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace based upon a detailed schedule of commitments now expresses hesitancy on committing to any “timetable” for the creation of a Palestinian state. Bush administration policy has always had a performance-based rather than a time-based approach, but now it is not putting down any time markers.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

167. Travel Advisory: Military Personnel and British Courts

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 11, retired Israeli maj. gen. Doron Almog declined to disembark from an arriving Israel El Al airliner at London's Heathrow airport and flew back to Israel, thereby avoiding British police waiting with a warrant for his arrest. The warrant, instigated in part by pro-Palestinian groups, alleged that Almog had committed war crimes while head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Southern Command operating in the Gaza Strip in 2002. The airport incident has serious implications, the full extent of which will only become clear in time, for visitors to Britain from Israel and possibly America (due to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq). Israelis, Americans, and, indeed, British citizens could be vulnerable when visiting other countries as well. London's role in the Middle East peace process could also be constrained.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Middle East, London, and Palestine

168. Empowering Mahmoud Abbas after Disengagement

Author:: Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Empowering Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas and fellow moderates at this critical time may be in the interest of everyone who favors a return to peace negotiations, but Abbas himself faces immense challenges to his authority that make him unlikely to be able to implement significant changes in the four months left before Palestinian legislative elections in January. The weakened position Abbas inherited included limited control over security forces, paralyzing rivalries within the Fatah movement that limit any support for difficult decisions, and an increasingly assertive Hamas that constantly flaunts its ability to act independently. None of these sources of Abbas's weakness is likely to change significantly in the coming months. And, despite Abbas's intentions to establish law and order and begin economic revitalization in Gaza as articulated in a speech delivered on September 13, the chaos exhibited along the border at Rafah and in the old Israeli settlements immediately after the Israeli withdrawal demonstrates just how difficult his task will be.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

169. A Wind in Hamas's Sails: Palestinian Militants Gather Post-Disengagement Momentum

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 12, the last departing Israeli forces closed the gates of Gaza behind them, followed by a salvo of Palestinian rockets aimed at southern Israel. In the unsettled aftermath of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, only one camp seems clearly to know where it is heading -- the militant Palestinian Islamist groups, led by Hamas. These groups now profess their intention to continue their violent campaign in and from the West Bank. Their strategy, using armed and political capabilities, poses a serious challenge to both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships and may undermine prospects of improved Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

170. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties

Author:: David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

171. Undermining Hamas and Empowering Moderates by Filling the Humanitarian Void

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now that Israel has disengaged from the Gaza Strip and four settlements from the northern West Bank, the international community has a clear interest in doing all it can to see that the post-withdrawal security situation remains stable so that the exit from Gaza leads to further steps along the path laid out in the Quartet's Roadmap to Middle East peace. As former World Bank leader James Wolfensohn, now Washington's special envoy for disengagement, lobbies world leaders to offer significant support for Palestinian development projects, a parallel effort is necessary to create new, transparent public and private social-service organizations unaffiliated with Hamas or other groups engaged in terrorism or political violence.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

172. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan

Author:: Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

173. Post-Gaza Crises for Religious Zionism in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank settlements has left in its wake three important crises for the religious Zionist movement that spearheaded settlements in Israel. These crises involve the settlers' future relationships with the Israeli public, the Israeli state, and the political secular right. For settlers, these three relationships are now colored by a sense of betrayal, raising the question of whether disengagement will radicalize the ideological settlers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

174. Sharon, Netanyahu, Disengagement, and Likud Leadership

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An immediate consequence of Israel's disengagement from Gaza was Benjamin Netanyahu's August 7 resignation as finance minister, making a Likud Party leadership challenge between him and Ariel Sharon virtually inevitable. What will be the impact of such a challenge on Sharon's policy in the postdisengagement period? And how would a Netanyahu challenge affect the chances of a split within the Likud—and perhaps a broader realignment of Israeli politics?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

175. On the Verge of Gaza Disengagement

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 4, 2005, Dennis Ross, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, has just returned from a month in the region. General Herzog of the Israel Defense Force is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. Formerly the senior military aide to the minister of defense, he was also an Israeli peace negotiator. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and the director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

176. Encouraging a Tougher PA Response to the Hamas Challenge

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's July 22-24 visit to the Israeli-Palestinian scene came amid critical domestic challenges to the Palestinian leadership against the backdrop of imminent Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, scheduled to begin August 15. In an unprecedented step, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas recently demonstrated the will to enforce his policy of nonviolence on Hamas and curb the group's efforts to become an alternative armed authority. Given his precarious vacillation between appeasement and enforcement, the international community should encourage Abbas to continue down the latter path and provide him with practical support toward that end.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

177. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

178. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement

Author:: Aviezer Ravitsky
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

179. Deteriorating Security May Short-Circuit Israeli-Palestinian Opportunities

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The June 21 meeting between Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas highlighted the widening expectations gap between the two parties. Less than two months before Israel commences its pullout from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, the security situation is worsening, while the PA appears largely unprepared to assume effective security control over these areas. Without an urgent predisengagement "crash program" to improve security, the opportunity afforded by Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene and Israel's departure from Gaza will be lost.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

180. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

181. From Diplomatic Talking Shop to Powerful Partnership?

Author:: Halle Malmvig
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: NATO plans to play a greater role in the Middle East. At the upcoming summit in Istanbul, the Alliance is expected to boost its neglected cooperation programme with seven states in the Middle East - the so-called Mediterranean Dialogue. The Dialogue is to be turned into a Partnership programme modelled on the Partnership for Peace (PfP) experience. This brief argues that NATO only can play a limited role in the efforts to reform and strengthen relations with Middle Eastern states. NATO does not have the political and economic tools necessary for tackling the root causes of the security problems in the Middle East, and there is a real danger that increased cooperation on terrorism and defence reform may undermine the overall goal of democratic and genuine change in the region.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East

182. The Palestine Question in the Wake of the War in Iraq

Author:: Michael Irving Jensen
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: By mid-January 2003 the American Assistant Defence Minister, Paul Wolfowitz, stated that America would work intensively in order to create a Palestinian State as soon as the War in Iraq was over. In Denmark and other European countries a number of politicians issued similar statements, and peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis became an argument to justify a war against Iraq. Even people who were not convinced by the necessity of war began to argue that something positive would eventually emerge from the war â€“ especially in the case of the Palestine Question. Their argument held that the Americans had to do something constructive in the Middle East. They needed to engage more seriously, and they had to demonstrate to the Arab world that although part of the "war against terror" might be taking place in the Arab world, it was not a war against the Arab world, or against Islam, for that matter. Thus, it was only logical to engage the US in the Middle East, and thereby do the utmost in order to force the Israeli occupation to cease. Despite the huge American problems in "post-war" Iraq the question of Palestine is still very high on the agenda not only in the Middle East, but globally.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

183. SIPRI Yearbook 2004: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Pocket-size Summary Edition)

Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The SIPRI Yearbook has been published since 1969. It brings together objective data and state-of-the-art analysis, offered by SIPRI's own staff and other experts, on all major aspects of arms control, peace and security. The 2004 edition takes as its connecting theme the impact of the Iraq crisis in many different dimensions of international security, but it also highlights important trends arising elsewhere, in both geographical and functional areas. The Yearbook is also published in Arabic, Chinese, Russian and Ukrainian editions. This condensed version is available on the Internet in English, French, German, Spanish and Swedish at http://editors.sipri.org/recpubs.html.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East

184. The 'Khmer Islam' community in Cambodia and its foreign patrons

Author:: Milton Osborne
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Apart from brief references to the arrest in May 2003 of suspected members of Jemaah Islamiyah in Phnom Penh and the later revelation that Hambali (Riduan Isamuddin) had spent six months in Cambodia before being captured in Thailand, the international media have paid little attention to Cambodia's 'indigenous' Islamic community, the Khmer Islam (Islamic Cambodians), numbering around 500,000 in a total population of 12-13 million. Generally described as 'Chams', the majority are the descendants of immigrants from the once-powerful kingdom of Champa located on the central coast of modern Vietnam. But Cambodia's Islamic community also includes the descendants of Malay settlers, perhaps 15% of the total. Members of this latter group are known as Chvea. For the most part living apart from the ethnic Cambodian population both during colonial times (1863-1953) and following independence, the Khmer Islam community played little part in politics. During the Pol Pot regime (1975-79) members of the community suffered grievously, with an estimated 90,000 dying from executions, overwork and hunger and disease out of a total of250,000. Following the fall of Pol Pot the position of the Cambodian Islamic community has attracted the interest of co-religionists in the Middle East and Southeast Asia who have contributed substantial funds for the construction of mosques, the support of Koranic schools and financing of participation in the haj. At the same time there has been a substantial growth in the interchange between members of the Khmer Islam community and fellow Muslims in southem Thailand and Malaysia. Overall, the community remains generally poor and disadvantaged and so potentially unlnerable to external influences.
Topic:: International Relations and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

185. Lebanon — Israeli Raid

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Israel last week launched an air raid against a Syrian radar station in Lebanon. The air raid has raised the stakes in the low-level military confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel. It has also exacerbated Lebanese internal divisions and exposed the lack of a national consensus on Hizbollah's cross-border operations. The Israeli raid has set a precedent and raised the stakes in Tel Aviv's confrontation with Hizbollah along the Lebanese border. Although neither Syria nor Israel is interested in a military confrontation, there are no guarantees that the situation will not spin out of control and lead to a limited regional conflict.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

186. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey In The Twenty-First Century

Author:: Niyazi B. Gunay and Ismail Cem
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 28, 2001, His Excellency Ismail Cem, foreign minister of Turkey, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and helping Turkey to improve relations simultaneously with the Arabs and Israel. Turkey's relations with the European Union are progressing favorably; EU membership is a goal, but not an obsession for Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

187. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

188. Border Disputes On The Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Ramin Seddiq
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to rule tomorrow on the longstanding border dispute between two Persian Gulf sheikdoms, Qatar and Bahrain. This dispute has preoccupied the ruling families in both countries for decades. It and the much better known Iraq–Kuwait border dispute (not detailed here) are hardly the only ones on the Arabian Peninsula. Indeed, almost every country on the peninsula has — or until very recently, has experienced — a disagreement over border demarcation.
Topic:: International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Arabian Peninsula

189. Special Policy Forum Report: Sanctions And U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Raymond Tanter, Meghan O'Sullivan, and Ramin Seddiq
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Sanctions provide the United States with a middle option that has the "least risk" in dealing with problematic Middle Eastern regimes. Sanctions are less costly than military intervention and better than doing nothing at all. During the Cold War, an evaluation of the success of a sanctions policy was not centered on whether or not the sanctions achieved compliance, but on whether such a measure resulted in the prevention of some negative event, such as the seizure of American citizens as hostages in the target states or enhanced Soviet intervention in the region.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Soviet Union

190. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:: Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

191. Khatami In Moscow Boosts Russian-Iranian Arms Cooperation

Author:: Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian president Mohammed Khatami will conduct an official visit to Russia on March 11 through March 15. This constitutes the highest-level visit of an Iranian official to Russia since 1989. There could be an intensification of cooperation between Russia and Iran during Khatami's visit — including on arms sales. In addition to military issues, the delineation of borders along the Caspian Sea will be a focus of discussion. Following talks in Moscow, Khatami will visit St. Petersburg and Kazan, the capital of the autonomous Russian republic of Tatarstan.
Topic:: International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

192. Powell To The Middle East: Assessing The Key Elements Of Iraq Policy

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 26, U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell begins his tour of Iraq's Arab neighbors just as UN secretary-general Kofi Annan is scheduled to hold discussions with Iraqi foreign minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf in New York. Key themes in these meetings will be the return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq; the future of UN sanctions; the need to prevent Iraqi adventurism, especially into the Arab–Israeli arena; and the larger U.S. goal of "regime change" in Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, New York, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

193. Arab Reactions To Sharon's Victory In The Israeli Election

Author:: Mohamed Abdel-Dayem
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Arab reactions to Ariel Sharon's overwhelming victory in the recent Israeli national election were mixed. Some condemned him with a confrontational tone, while some suggested that the election made no difference — that is, that all Israeli leaders have basically the same stance. Several Arab leaders opted to take a "wait and see" approach. An optimistic minority of Arab commentators viewed Sharon's leadership in a positive light. The following is a representative sampling of Arab reactions to Sharon's victory.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

194. The 'Al-Aqsa Intifada' And The Prospects For A Wider Arab-Israeli War

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian officials have threatened an intensification of violence, should — as is expected — Ariel Sharon be elected prime minister of Israel tomorrow. The Palestinian leadership that "rewarded" Prime Minister Ehud Barak's diplomatic flexibility with the "al-Aqsa Intifada" thus seems poised to "punish" the Israeli public for electing Sharon with an escalation of the bloodletting. Its goal would be to force Israel to soften its negotiating position, and perhaps provoke a harsh response that would place world opinion — largely unsympathetic to Sharon to begin with — squarely on the Palestinian side.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

195. Syria's Foreign Policy Challenges U.S. Interests

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This is the second of two PolicyWatch articles about Syria, marking the six months since Bashar al-Asad became president on July 17. This article examines the implications of Syria's foreign policy; the previous article (PolicyWatch #512, January 17) looked at the domestic political scene and economic reforms in Syria. For a region used to the late Hafiz al-Asad's stodgy predictability, his son Bashar's six-month-old presidency has displayed a surprisingly active foreign policy, including a willingness to break with the past. However, on issues of greatest importance to the United States — peace with Israel, control over Lebanon, and support for Palestinian terrorist groups — Bashar's regime is mainly a carbon copy of his father's.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Syria

196. What Has Impeded Progress In U.S.-Iran Relations?

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After much experimentation, the Clinton administration settled on a policy of incremental normalization with Iran, whereby the United States and Iran would gradually improve their relations through mutual concessions and confidence-building measures. As the Bush team assesses policy options towards Iran, it is important to note the meager results of the Clinton team's creative efforts.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

197. Can Iraq Reconstitute The Arab Eastern Front Against Israel?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn's defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad dedicated to the Palestinian cause. By some reports, this parade included hundreds of tanks, dozens of helicopters, new troop-transport trucks, and new short-range missiles — impressive, given that the Iraqi army was assumed to be having problems maintaining its equipment, much less acquiring new systems. One unconfirmed report suggests that elements of the Hamurabi Republican Guard Division would be permanently stationed west of Baghdad on the road to either Syria and Jordan.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Jordan

198. The Arab League Summit: Opportunities Amid The Vitriol?

Author:: Rovert Satloff
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the Middle East, this week witnessed a series of events occurring at such breakneck speed that it is important not to lose the significance of each: On Thursday, President Bush issued an unprecedented statement calling on Chairman Yasir Arafat to "stop the violence," a statement that could lay down a marker by which the administration judges the efforts of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and which could determine the direction of the U.S.–Palestinian relationship under the new administration. On Wednesday, Israel's national unity government launched retaliatory attacks against Arafat's personal guard, Force 17, underscoring Israel's intent to hold the chairman personally responsible for the terrorism emanating from within his close circle. On Monday and Tuesday, bombs went off inside the heart of Israel — responsibility for which was claimed by the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad, suggesting that Tehran is eager to tap pro-Hizballah sympathy and compete with the Tanzim and other Fatah elements for the pacesetter's role in the Palestinian uprising. Also on Tuesday, the PA chose an all-or-nothing option at the United Nations, demanding a Security Council vote on a resolution that the United States had no trouble vetoing — one calling for an international protection force for Palestinians — rather than pursuing diplomacy to bring to a vote a watered-down, but still problematic, resolution on which Washington was prepared to compromise. And on Sunday, Israel's Likud-led government issued a communique affirming its intent to seek the full implementation of signed agreements with the Palestinians, specifically citing its willingness to fulfill the requirement for a third "further redeployment" — territorial withdrawal in the West Bank — in the context of full compliance with the Wye River Memorandum. Each of these items alone has significant ramifications for the direction of Arab–Israeli relations, the Palestinian uprising, and U.S. policy toward the peace process. Taken together, they suggest a situation in great flux with emerging trends that are both ominous (e.g., Iran's deepening role) and positive (e.g., Bush's forthrightness on violence, Israel's balance of diplomacy and force).
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Arab Countries

199. From Tehran To Beirut To Jerusalem: Iran And Hizballah In The Palestinian Uprising

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Arab leaders gather in Amman for the first regular Arab summit in a decade, non-Arab Iran is keenly watching to see whether Arab heads-of-state once again make grandiose promises to support the Palestinians. If Arab leaders fail to deliver on these promises, as has been the case with Arab financial commitments to the Palestinians, it would open the door for Tehran to build on Hizballah's success in Lebanon and to deepen its already worrisome role in the Israeli–Palestinian arena.
Topic:: International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, Arabia, Jerusalem, Lebanon, and Beirut

200. Assessing Powell's Trip To Israel And The Palestinian Territories

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to be unnerved about.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS