Search

Begin New Search Topic Government Political Geography Middle East Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks. Iraq’s stalled government formation process finally lurched forward on October 17, with new president Abdul Latif Rashid taking office more than a year after the 2021 election. Incoming prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will now try to ratify his cabinet during a parliamentary session on October 22. If he succeeds as expected, Baghdad will finally close perhaps its most troubled electoral cycle yet—a chapter in which a clear popular vote nearly failed to produce a peaceful transition of power, and the losing factions spurred the biggest winner to abandon parliament through corrupt judicial rulings. Under these sad circumstances, the U.S. government and its partners need to quietly but insistently push for early, inclusive elections to restore legitimacy to the democratic process. Simultaneously, all of Iraq’s friends must watch the new government like a hawk to ensure that militias and corrupt politicians do not attempt to purge technocrats, conduct witch hunts against Western-leaning officials, cover up past graft, or initiate a new wave of “asset-stripping” via state institutions. After many false alarms, the survival of Iraq’s close relationship with the West is truly at stake right now, and only firm expectation-setting can ensure that the partnership continues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

2. Persistent Obstacles: Iraqi state’s prospects for forming a new government

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Head of the Sadrist Movement and powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has announced that a truce reached to observe the Shia religious observance of Arbaeen was extended for another two weeks to mid-October to give political forces a chance to respond to his demands. The announcement coincided with the Iraqi parliament’s rejection of the resignation of Speaker of the parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi on September 28. It also came while the Shi'ite Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in the parliament, claimed that, along with the Kurdisd and Sunni parties, it succeeded in establishing a new political coalition, reportedly named “Running-the-State Coalition.”
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, Coalition, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

3. The Emirati Lobby in America

Author:
Ben Freeman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has exerted considerable influence in its region in recent years and has also been a major factor in U.S. foreign policy. The UAE military and its proxies fought for years in Yemen and still maintain significant influence there, despite a 2020 pledge to withdraw from the devastating conflict. The UAE and other Gulf states have normalized relations with Israel under the auspices of the Abraham Accords. The UAE also continues to receive billions of dollars worth of U.S. military equipment and weapons. On the soft power side, the UAE played host to World Expo 2020, also known as the Expo 2020 Dubai, a cultural event that brought together representatives from nearly every country in the world. A small army of U.S.–based lobbyists working on behalf of the UAE has played a role in all these events, and in nearly every aspect of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Based on an exhaustive analysis of all Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) documents filed by organizations registered to work on behalf of UAE clients in 2020 and 2021, this brief offers a number of key findings regarding legal lobbying activities of the UAE in the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Soft Power, and Lobbying
Political Geography:
Middle East, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

4. Uncertain prospects for sovereign wealth funds of Gulf countries

Author:
Julien Maire, Adnan Mazarei, and Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Among the best-known sovereign wealth funds (SWFs)—government-owned or controlled investment vehicles—are those funded by hydrocarbon revenues in the member economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which comprises all the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf except Iraq, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This Policy Brief compares the GCC SWFs with each other and with other funds in terms of their transparency and accountability on the fifth SWF scoreboard, available here. Several factors, including the decline in oil prices in recent years, have slowed the growth of the GCC’s SWFs. This slower growth could further diminish their governance and transparency standards, which are already weaker than those of other SWFs. Efforts to improve their governance and accountability will be important to garner public support for these SWFs.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Government, Markets, Governance, Regulation, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

5. Variant Requirements: Discovering the recent policies of the MENA countries regarding nationality and citizenship

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The political and technical dimensions of granting or revoking nationality have recently escalated in several countries of the region. This is associated with a number of motives relevant to enhancing the state’s global position, as reflected in the UAE granting nationality to competent scientists, doctors, intellectuals, specialists and talented individuals, to encourage the flow of investment into the country. The Jordanian government adopted the same approach to improve the internal economic conditions. The Algerian government justified this course to confront terrorist operations and irregular migration that caused tensions in the relations with the EU countries. Furthermore, the Sudanese transitional government withdrew the Sudanese nationality by naturalization, especially from Syrians, as some were obtained through illegal procedures. Israel also passed the Law of Return this March in an attempt to enhance the demographic structure of the country.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Citizenship, and Nationality
Political Geography:
Sudan, Middle East, Israel, Algeria, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, and United Arab Emirates

6. The 2021 Iranian Presidential Election A Preliminary Assessment

Author:
Albert B. Wolf
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Whoever wins, the result will intimate deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader’s departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, thirteenth in the series, assesses the situation in Iran, where a June election will determine the successor to President Hassan Rouhani. An IRGC-backed candidate such as Majlis speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf or former defense minister Hossein Dehghan could ultimately prevail—but a history of election surprises in the Islamic Republic suggests no outcome is certain. Whoever wins, the result will offer clues about deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

7. Arab Youth Futures: No Lost Generation

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Young Arabs (those aged between 15 and 35) are often seen as a generation beset by hopelessness, stuck between dreams of emigration and the reality of violence and unemployment. This impression does not come out of nowhere: the last decade took a heavy toll on this generation – it was during their childhood and adolescence, between 2013 and 2019, that the region suffered the highest number of terrorism casualties, that three wars interrupted the education of 13 million children and that riots and repression led to economic losses of $600 billion following the Arab Spring. But how much does this generation feel that they can change matters and create a better future? Answering this question was the main objective of a survey co-organised by the EUISS, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Arab Research and Advocacy Bureau. Conducted in Egypt, Libya, Morocco and the West Bank of the Palestinian Territories between January and April 2021, the survey was based on qualitative focus-group discussions and interviews with young urban dwellers, allowing for a deeper understanding of how this generation truly feels about the future. The selected countries were chosen because access to them was most feasible in terms of financial resources and political stability. The survey asked about a sense of agency – the feeling of mastering one’s own fate–, about the respondents’ general disposition towards the future – whether characterised by optimism or pessimism – and about their key grievances. The results belie the perception that young people in the region have a negative vision of the future, instead highlighting a determination to live more independent autonomous lives, a relative optimism (unusual in younger generations – optimism is normally a feature of older age groups), and concerns over issues that will be of particular importance in their future, such as healthcare and political representation. This shift in attitudes towards the future may be ascribed to a combination of several factors: longer life cycles, education, digital connectivity, the Arab Spring and its aftershocks have all spawned a generation that want to be in charge of their own lives rather than passive spectators of events beyond their control. This means that regional governments, and Europeans wishing to assist them, will have to provide the space and opportunity for this generation to realise their ambitions. The Brief first analyses the survey findings on agency and optimism, then takes a look at the most important grievances, and concludes with policy implications.
Topic:
Government, Youth, and Survey
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

8. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration

Author:
Abram N. Shulsky
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

9. The Ministry of Regional Cooperation and Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:
Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Among Israel’s many government ministries, one stands out in particular. It is small, its authority is limited, and many doubt its need. But it is tasked with realizing one of Israel’s greatest aspirations since its founding: Reshaping relations with the Palestinians and its other Arab neighbors through regional cooperation. The Ministry of Regional Cooperation was established in 1999 as a product of political bargaining. Then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak sought to find a job for Shimon Peres, the peace advocate whom he did not want as his foreign minister. Peres used the new ministry as a platform to advance his vision of a new Middle East, while Barak led an Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, Regional Cooperation, History, Domestic Politics, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

10. Rebuffing Accusations: Implications of Esmail Qaani to Iraq Following Attempted Assassination of al-Kadhimi

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iraqi media outlets such as Dijlah, Al-Rafidain TV and Al-Sharqiya, on November 7, reported that Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), had arrived in the Iraqi capital on November 7 on an unannounced visit. Qaani met with the chiefs of Shi’ite militant groups, as well as Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and the Iraqi President Barham Salih. Qaani expressed rejection of the assassination attempt on al-Kadhimi. Qaani’s visit was part of Iran’s efforts to bring its Iraqi armed groups under control in exchange for giving their parties a share in the next government.
Topic:
Government, Non State Actors, Media, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East