Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 10 Years / Topic: Security

1. China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Dale Aluf
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa,” Aluf analyzes China’s campaign to make countries in the region more dependent on Chinese networks, while reducing its own dependence on foreign cables. For a country that seeks to alter the internet’s physical form and influence digital behavior while exerting supreme control over information flows, China’s growing presence in the Middle East and North Africa’s cable industry is significant because Beijing has the power to shape the route of global internet traffic by determining when, where, and how to build cables.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Science and Technology, Partnerships, and Innovation
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

2. The Israeli ThreatL What is driving the renewed escalation between Iran and Azerbaijan?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Ministry of Interior, Security Agency, and Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan announced in a joint statement on Tuesday, May 16, 2023, that nine individuals were arrested on charges of planning to overthrow the government by force, assassinate prominent figures and senior Azerbaijani officials. The statement indicated that they had connections to Iranian intelligence agencies, and that the cell was composed of a person named Ruhollah Akhoundzadeh and his son Mursal, along with seven others working under his supervision. On his part, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani, rejected the accusations in a statement on May 18, denying any official or unofficial relationship between these individuals and Iran. He affirmed that imprisoning individuals on the pretext of their connection to Iran is unacceptable.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan

3. Facing Pressure: Iran executes former Defence Minister

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran executed on January 14, 2022, a British-Iranian national who once served as its deputy defence minister, defying calls from London and Washington for his release. Alireza Akbari was arrested in 2019 and accused of spying for Britain. He served as a defence minister between 2000 and 2005 under former President Mohammad Khatami, and he fought during the Iraq-Iran war. He also served in other high-ranking positions in the navy and the ministry of defence’s research centre, and was appointed as the general secretariat of the national security council.
Topic:: Security, Elites, and Capital Punishment
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Iran, and Middle East

4. Diplomatic Defeat: Uncovering the low turnout to the Arab League meeting in Tripoli

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Libya’s outgoing Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, failed to host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in the capital Tripoli on January 21, 2023. The chief diplomats of most of the Arab states and the organization’s secretary-general boycotted the meeting. Representatives of only seven Arab states, including Tunisia’s and Algeria’s foreign ministers, attended the gathering, which was a diplomatic blow to the al-Dbeibah government.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Arab League, and Instability
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

5. Time to Recalibrate America’s Middle East Policy

Author:: Raphael BenLevi and Michael Doran
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Our understanding of reality in the Middle East has changed significantly in the last seven years. At a conference on US-Israel relations in 2016, then Secretary of State John Kerry highlighted, now famously, the impossibility of Israel making peace with the Gulf states. In an obvious reference to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates, Kerry said, “I’ve heard several prominent politicians in Israel sometimes saying, ‘Well, the Arab world is in a different place now. We just have to reach out to them. We can work some things with the Arab world, and we’ll deal with the Palestinians.’” Kerry dismissed Netanyahu’s thesis with total certainty: “No. No, no, and no. I can tell you that I’ve talked to the leaders of the Arab community. There will be no advanced and separate peace with the Arab world without the Palestinian process and Palestinian peace. Everybody needs to understand that. That is a hard reality.” Just two years later, Netanyahu refuted Kerry’s view of reality by, with the help of President Donald Trump, signing the Abraham Accords with Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani and Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. But the flaws that Trump and Netanyahu revealed were not Kerry’s alone. Nor were the flaws limited to thinking about Arab-Israeli relations. Trump and Netanyahu were attacking the entire strategic belief system of the Obama administration, which had identified reconciling with Iran and brokering a Palestinian-Israeli peace as the two top priorities of the United States in the Middle East. In the Trump-Netanyahu conception, the Abraham Accords were the cornerstone of a regional alliance that aimed not just to improve relations between Israel and its neighbors but also to contain Iran militarily and to prevent it, through the application of hard power, from acquiring a nuclear weapon. With a Middle East staff consisting almost entirely of veterans of the Obama administration, the Biden administration intended to prove the utility of Obama’s effort to reconcile with Iran. It therefore rejected the Trump-Netanyahu view of the accords as a key component of an Iran-containment strategy. However, the accords have fashioned a new “hard reality” of Arab-Israeli coordination that the administration cannot ignore. That reality includes formal Israeli representation at US Central Command, the military’s combatant operations command responsible for, among other things, deterring Iran. In other words, beneath the umbrella of the United States military, the Israeli military and its Arab counterparts are now liaising daily. Weren’t Trump and Netanyahu pursuing this outcome? The simple answer is no. To prevent trilateral military cooperation among the Arab states, Israel, and the United States from turning into a coalition designed to pressure Iran regarding the aggression of its proxy forces and the expansion of its nuclear weapons program, the Biden administration instructed CENTCOM to focus exclusively on defensive measures and integrated missile defense, and to avoid any offensive countermeasures against Iran. But defending against an aggressor with only a shield is impossible. Arming oneself with a sword is also necessary. Enter Raphael BenLevi, the director of the Churchill Program for Strategy, Statesmanship and National Security at the Argaman Institute of Tikvah Fund Israel. BenLevi is at the forefront of a new generation of foreign policy strategists in Israel who have come of age in an era when what seemed like a “hard reality” to the generation of John Kerry is now obviously history. In this article, he lays out a strong case for the potential of the kind of trilateral cooperation to which the Biden administration, under the weight of stale ideas, has turned a blind eye.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

6. Opening the Global Gateway: Why the EU should invest more in the southern neighbourhood

Author:: Alberto Rizzi and Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The southern neighbourhood should be a key focus for the EU’s Global Gateway infrastructure programme – but the bloc has so far directed relatively little of its investment to the region. Strategic goals for the EU in the Mediterranean include promoting ‘nearshoring’ to shorten key supply chains including of energy; and improving regional connectivity, decarbonising economic activity, and creating jobs. The EU can propose more attractive investment offers than China and other players. The Global Gateway’s use of grants rather than loans is central to this. Going beyond investments, the EU should promote inclusive growth by sharing technical know-how and supporting training to enhance the skills of workforces in the region. Protecting physical connections is of great importance. The EU should work hand in hand with southern neighbours to monitor Global Gateway-funded infrastructure.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and North Africa

7. Renewable relations: A strategic approach to European energy cooperation with the Gulf states

Author:: Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Russia’s war on Ukraine prompted a frenzy of energy deals between EU member states and countries in the Middle East and North Africa, but their implementation is slow. The EU needs a new approach to energy cooperation with states in the Middle East and North Africa that serves both its energy security imperative and its climate goals. The Gulf monarchies represent a good test case for such an approach, due to their green ambitions, abundant resources, and significance to the fight against climate change. Political and ideological differences are currently the greatest obstacle to long-term, strategic energy cooperation between the regions. But this year’s COP28 in Dubai is an opportunity for both sides to focus on practical ways to accelerate the green transition. Europeans should emphasise four promising areas of energy cooperation with the GCC states: energy efficiency and electrification, renewable energy, and the circular carbon economy.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Decarbonization, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

8. An Heir and a Spare? How Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Could Change Iran’s Deterrent Calculus

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since October 27, the Houthis have launched three medium-range ballistic missiles at Israel, a first since Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the country in 1991. The Yemen-based jihadists have also launched at least eight salvos of cruise missiles and long-range explosive drones focused on the southern port of Eilat. Moreover, they have attacked U.S. assets directly during the Hamas-Israel war, shooting down one MQ-9 Reaper drone and routing numerous missiles near Navy vessels. If Iran continues to develop the group’s capabilities, the Houthis may provide the broader “axis of resistance” with a potent new chess piece. In this timely Policy Note, Michael Knights assesses the rising Houthi threat and explains how the United States and its allies can respond more assertively and effectively. A revamped policy would recognize the intimate alliance between the Houthis and Iran—which has never been a “marriage of convenience,” as some analysts have imagined—and seek to counter the group’s aggression with the goal of securing U.S. interests and providing a better future for the Yemeni people.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Deterrence, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

9. A "System of Systems" Approach to Countering Drones: Examining Recent Operations from the Middle East to Ukraine

Author:: Eric Feely
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Drones have proliferated over the past decade, offering a cheap, effective precision-strike capability and leading to an inflection point wherein the United States can no longer count on complete air superiority. As former U.S. Central Command head Kenneth McKenzie put it, “Until we are able to develop and field a networked capability to detect and defeat [drones], the advantage will remain with the attacker.” The United States and other countries have therefore begun investing in counter-drone systems to complement and augment legacy air defense systems that have already proven effective in the role. Conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and elsewhere suggest that progress in drone technology will require corresponding adjustments in counter-drone capabilities to fill gaps and lower the costs of interception. In this lavishly illustrated Policy Note, Eric Feely details counter-drone approaches used in recent conflicts and what they could mean for the future of warfare. Military officials, he writes, are not seeking a silver bullet on this front, but rather advances based on existing layered, interoperable systems capable of providing kinetic and nonkinetic solutions.
Topic:: Security, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

10. The Next Generation of Iranian Ballistic Missiles: Technical Advances, Strategic Objectives, and Potential Western Responses

Author:: Farzin Nadimi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 25, 2023, Iran’s minister of defense, Gen. Mohammad Reza Qaraei Ashtiani, unveiled the so-called fourth generation of the Khoramshahr liquid-fuel ballistic missile—aka Kheibar—amid heightened tensions with Israel and the West regarding Tehran’s nuclear program and renewed talk of preventive strikes against Iran’s key nuclear sites. Ashtiani spoke at the Hakimiyeh Aerospace Industries Organization complex, east of Tehran, against a backdrop with the new missile and a large model of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock. The name Kheibar comes from a fortified oasis settlement north of Medina, Saudi Arabia, inhabited by Jewish tribes before the Islamic era. In AD 628, the Jews there were defeated by Muslim armies led by Ali ibn Abi Talib, who has become a legendary figure in Shia Islam. The message to Israel implicit in the Kheibar announcement was therefore unmistakable. The Khoramshahr is Iran’s most advanced liquid-fuel ballistic missile and probably the first using storable liquid fuel, with its first version having been introduced at a military parade on September 22, 2017. The missile is believed to have much in common technically with the North Korean Hwasong-10—itself based on the retired Russian R-27 submarine-launched ballistic missile. Iran is thought to have received several Hwasong-10 missiles from North Korea in 2005 for reverse engineering purposes. The Khoramshahr is also Iran’s first departure from the Russian Scud and scaled Scud-generation propulsion systems.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

11. How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Reshaping the Global Arms Market: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Author:: Grant Rumley and Louis Dugit-Gros
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Ukraine war is spurring profound changes in the global arms market as Russia, long a top exporter, grapples with battlefield losses, Western sanctions, and reputational damage to its weaponry. Countries that routinely bought arms from Moscow have started considering alternative sources, emerging exporters have amplified their sales pitches, and governments worldwide are seeking to build up their domestic defense industrial bases to safeguard against market turbulence in the age of intensifying great power competition. The Middle East—long one of the world’s principal arms importing regions—sits at the forefront of this new global landscape. In this timely Policy Note, defense expert Grant Rumley and French diplomat-in-residence Louis Dugit-Gros survey the arms marketplace following the Ukraine invasion. They see both opportunities and potential risks for Western states, and argue for steps such as reinforcing Ukraine’s defense industrial base to eventually compete with Russia’s, establishing longer-term security cooperation plans with Middle East partners, and taking action to strengthen the European defense industrial base.
Topic:: Security, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

12. The Regent of Allah: Ali Khamenei's Political Evolution in Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During his lengthy tenure as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei has shown a knack for consolidating power by creating layers of bureaucracy in military, economic, and religious affairs. In turn, he has liberally purged officials who have hinted at disloyalty to him, the Islamic Republic, or its governing doctrine, velayat-e faqih (rule of the jurisprudent). But Khamenei does not lack for personal complexity. As a younger man, he dressed casually, flaunted his love of literature, and composed poetry. And as a leader, he has often demonstrated flexibility—coined as “heroic flexibility” in the case of the 2015 nuclear deal—at times of national risk or strained social cohesion. He has likewise blessed the rise of relatively moderate presidents such as Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani when he thought their leadership would reinforce national stability. In this wide-ranging study, former Qom theologian Mehdi Khalaji details Khamenei’s political ascent, from his role as an influential cleric in Mashhad to his presidency under Ruhollah Khomeini and his surprising appointment as Supreme Leader. Whoever succeeds him, the author makes plain, will inherit an infrastructure designed to preserve Iran’s authoritarian system and suppress rumblings of internal dissent.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Political Islam, and Ali Khamenei
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

13. Arming the Revolution: Trends in Iranian Defense Spending, 2013–23

Author:: Henry Rome
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Islamic Republic boasts a large and expanding nuclear program, the most capable missile and drone force in the Middle East, and a broad network of proxies that threaten U.S. interests. Nevertheless, scholars have devoted little attention to a key area: Iran’s defense spending. Although the data is publicly available, tabulating it is more difficult than one might assume, and three particular hazards await: (1) conversion of Iranian rials to dollars at unrealistic rates, (2) reliance on spending plans as opposed to actual spending, and (3) undercounting. Thus, any attempt to understand Iran’s military spending must scrupulously avoid such traps. In this Policy Note, Iran expert Henry Rome offers the most detailed public accounting yet of Tehran’s recent defense spending, illustrated by charts showing domestic trends and comparisons with regional rivals. The findings show how spending surged following the 2015 nuclear deal and plummeted following the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018. They also suggest that a new nuclear accord with Washington will likely prompt another increase, demanding a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Economy, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

14. Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East

Author:: Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine. In the bigger picture, advances in drone technology have produced an inflection point in aerial warfare—comparable to the introduction of manned flight more than a century ago—that has ended the guarantee of U.S. air superiority over its forces and bases. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. explores the contours and consequences of Iran’s drone activities in this timely Policy Note. To counter the Islamic Republic, the former CENTCOM commander recommends an approach centered on clearer U.S. communication about its goals for the region, tighter collaboration with partners and allies, and enhanced efforts to counter Iran’s drone fleet, along with its ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Drones, Military, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

15. Liberty’s Doom? Artificial Intelligence in Middle Eastern Security

Author:: Kristina Kausch
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The surge of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled technologies has triggered global debates on the potential risks and opportunities of the use of these technologies to enhance societies’ prosperity, security and well-being while ensuring human control and safeguarding fundamental rights. In the area of security, AI has the potential of making key sectors, such as predictive policing, counter-terrorism or border management more efficient, just and humane. At the same time, the risks inherent to AI in the security sector have raised numerous concerns regarding surveillance and data protection, human rights and civil liberties, or the prospect of an arms race in autonomous weapons systems, which have overshadowed debates on opportunities. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents particular challenges in this equation. On the one hand, the region’s myriad security challenges could greatly benefit from a booster in security-related problem-solving efficiency. On the other, ethical and legal considerations gain particular weight in a region largely governed by authoritarian rulers and with a weak rule of law, as these conditions prevent thorough AI governance and the necessary checks and balances to avoid authoritarian abuse of the ample opportunities presented by AI. This collection attempts to approach the questions and dilemmas raised by AI in Middle Eastern security through a European policy lens. Zooming in on AI in border management, surveillance, defence and regulation, exploring both risks and opportunities of this set of technologies for the fragile security of the MENA region, each chapter draws conclusions for future European Union (EU) policy and cooperation with MENA partners on AI.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Middle East

16. Responding to Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Crisis: The Potential Role of Digital Payments

Author:: Michael Pisa
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, with the World Food Programme (WFP) reporting that 22.8 million people—more than half the country’s population—are projected to be acutely food insecure in 2022, including 8.7 million at risk of famine-like conditions.[1] Even before the Taliban took over the country on August 15, 2021, Afghanistan’s economy was buckling under the weight of the country’s worst drought in decades, a deteriorating security situation, and the COVID-19 pandemic.[2] Financial flows into Afghanistan collapsed immediately after the Taliban takeover, as foreign aid was cut, private sector activity fell sharply, and foreign banks and money service providers (collectively: “financial service providers” or FSPs) refused to process payments into the country for fear of inadvertently violating sanctions and anti-money laundering and the countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regulations. The exceptional nature of the situation hampers efforts to resume normal financial flows to Afghanistan. Never before has an organization designated as a terrorist group by the United States assumed control of an entire jurisdiction.[3] The United States and other countries responded to this novel circumstance by freezing the country’s foreign exchange reserves held abroad; keeping in place sanctions that criminalize most transactions with the Taliban; and denying official recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate head of the Afghan state, which has prevented the Afghan central bank (Da Afghanistan Bank or DAB) from maintaining correspondent accounts with foreign banks. Cumulatively, these measures have limited access to US dollars in the Afghan economy, leaving Afghans unable to pay for the food, fuel, and imported intermediate inputs their economy relies on.
Topic:: Security, Economy, Humanitarian Crisis, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

17. Unfarmed Now, Uninhabited When? Agriculture and climate change in Iraq

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Small-scale farmers in Iraq are among the most affected groups in Iraq by climate change and water scarcity. With the reduction of rainfall and soaring temperature, agricultural production is dropping, and farmers’ ability to cope is hindered. Affected farmers are exhausted and feel that they are left alone in the face of crisis. Many farmers are leaving their lands and looking for better opportunities away from their land and the urban areas. Duty bearers need to mobilize resources and political well to support farmers and the agricultural sector through a national strategy with clear vision on the current needs and comprehensive forecast of the impacts of climate change. While agriculture is at the heart of Iraq’s past and present, its position in the country’s future is at risk.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Food, and Farming
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

18. Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks. Iraq’s stalled government formation process finally lurched forward on October 17, with new president Abdul Latif Rashid taking office more than a year after the 2021 election. Incoming prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will now try to ratify his cabinet during a parliamentary session on October 22. If he succeeds as expected, Baghdad will finally close perhaps its most troubled electoral cycle yet—a chapter in which a clear popular vote nearly failed to produce a peaceful transition of power, and the losing factions spurred the biggest winner to abandon parliament through corrupt judicial rulings. Under these sad circumstances, the U.S. government and its partners need to quietly but insistently push for early, inclusive elections to restore legitimacy to the democratic process. Simultaneously, all of Iraq’s friends must watch the new government like a hawk to ensure that militias and corrupt politicians do not attempt to purge technocrats, conduct witch hunts against Western-leaning officials, cover up past graft, or initiate a new wave of “asset-stripping” via state institutions. After many false alarms, the survival of Iraq’s close relationship with the West is truly at stake right now, and only firm expectation-setting can ensure that the partnership continues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

19. Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?

Author:: Henry Rome and Louis Dugit-Gros
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort. In recent weeks, the United States, Britain, France, and Germany have argued that Iran’s sale of drones to Russia for use against Ukraine violates UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the backbone of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). These allegations, combined with ongoing diplomatic deadlock over reviving that 2015 nuclear agreement, have led some to suggest pursuing “snapback,” a provision that would reimpose terminated UN resolutions on Iran and essentially scrub the JCPOA from the books. How would snapback work, and what political, economic, and security consequences would it have?
Topic:: Security, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Sanctions, Nonproliferation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

20. A Stabilizing Factor: Oman’s Quiet Influence amid Mounting Uncertainty in the Gulf

Author:: Jeonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Based on its sound reputation as a conflict mediator and talks facilitator, Oman is well-positioned to tone down flaring rivalries in the Gulf and prevent tensions from spiraling out of control. After a timid thawing of tensions, the Gulf region is witnessing a renewed phase of uncertainty. Despite being a skillful master at navigating turbulent waters, Oman is eyeing the revamping of tensions in its immediate neighborhood with growing apprehension. The failed attempts to review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the revamping of Iran’s outward-looking incendiary rhetoric as well as localized military retaliations amid recent mass protests, and the failure to extend the U.N.-brokered ceasefire in Yemen do not bode well for the region’s precarious stability. Muscat has a vested interest in preventing at-sea incidents from escalating and harsh infighting among rival Yemeni factions from reaching alarming proportions, especially given its coasts looking out on the Strait of Hormuz and much of its southwestern frontier bordering Yemen.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Oman, and Gulf Nations

21. he EU-Iraq security partnership: A Policy Debate with MEPs

Author:: Middle East Research Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: A Policy Debate with European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defence “The Middle East, Iraq and Kurdistan are key partners of Europe… What takes place here has consequences in Europe and vice versa”, said Nathalie Loiseau, Chair of the European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in a MERI policy debate held on 25 May 2022. Ms Loiseau headed a delegation of seven members of European Parliament (MEPs), along with a group of senior parliamentary advisors and staff (listed below), who visited both Baghdad and Erbil. Their aim was to engage Iraqi policy- and decision-makers and to develop a deeper understanding of the security challenges facing both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KRI).
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, and Middle East

22. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

23. Iron net: Digital repression in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: James Lynch
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Governments across the world have powerful digital tools to control and repress their populations, ranging from spyware and social media manipulation to facial recognition technology and mass surveillance. Activists are working to protect themselves from such tools, but this is not a fair fight. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the leading exponents of digital authoritarianism in the Middle East. The two states have intensified their collaboration with China and Israel to gain greater access to advanced technologies. The EU has responded to concerns about the risks of new technologies with a raft of regulations on digital markets and services, artificial intelligence, and technology exports. The fact that European governments have been targeted, and implicated, in NSO Group’s Pegasus scandal should sound the alarm about the global threat of digital authoritarianism. The EU should treat the threat as an urgent security and political concern.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

24. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors

Author:: Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa

25. Israel-NATO Relations: Developing a New Strategic Concept

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Israel’s relations with the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) were never a focal point of its foreign and security policy. In fact, they have weakened since their peak in the 1990s. However, recent geopolitical shifts have highlighted the importance of these relations for Israel, providing a potential foundation for reshaping them. NATO has been undergoing profound reform in recent years, expanding its agenda to deal with additional issues of human security, such as the climate and energy crises, and stressing innovation. The war in Ukraine not only injected renewed vigor and political power into the alliance, it also hastened the processes of organizational renewal and emphasized the alliance’s geographical focus northward and eastward. Israel, too, has undergone change, its security enhanced by normalization agreements with Arab states, a strong Hellenic alliance with Greece and Cyprus, and warming relations with Turkey. Its technological capabilities and its business model orientation could turn its posture vis-à-vis NATO from a consumer of security to a supplier. NATO and Israel now have an opportunity to reshape, deepen and improve their relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

26. Implications of Israel and Turkey’s diplomatic thaw on Israel’s Mediterranean Policy

Author:: Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This document focuses on the challenges and opportunities for Israel’s policy in the Mediterranean Basin as a result of its warming relations with Turkey. It covers the main points raised at the 11th meeting of the Research and Policy Group on Israel in the Mediterranean Basin conducted on May 24, 2022, at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, Hebrew University’s Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement among all discussion participants. The warming relations between Israel and Turkey
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

27. Holding the Hard-line: What is behind Iran’s seizure of Greek ships in Arabian Gulf?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On May 27, Iran seized two Greek tankers, named “Prudent Warrior” and “Delta Poseidon”, in the Arabian Gulf. Forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) descended on the tankers and ordered them to sail to Bandar Abbas port. Onboard the tankers were 49 crew members. Greece described the operation as ‘piracy’. The seizure seems to be a reprisal for Greece’s role earlier in the month assisting the US impounding a Russian-flagged tanker transporting Iranian oil and carrying 19 crew.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Maritime, and Shipping
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Greece

28. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq

Author:: David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:: This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

29. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration

Author:: Abram N. Shulsky
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

30. Afghanistan’s Ripples: Can the US withdraw from Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Taliban’s control of Kabul and the extension of its sovereignty over the majority of Afghanistan, following the withdrawal of US forces, have raised debates regarding the fate of the US forces in Iraq. Is Washington going to withdraw from Iraq as well, particularly in light of previous US threats to do so, or will the Afghan experience not be repeated in Iraq?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

31. Mutual Concessions: Did al-Kadhimi’s visit to Tehran achieve its objectives?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On September 12, 2021, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, led a high-profile government delegation on an official one-day visit to Tehran that came upon invitation from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Besides Raisi, al-Kadhimi also met Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and other senior officials.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Domestic Politics, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

32. Israel and the Persian Gulf: A Source of Security or Conflict?

Author:: Steven Simon
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • In the current geopolitical context, the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the final months of the Trump administration, could prove destabilizing by lowering the bar for Israeli military action against Iran.1 • The destabilizing potential of the Abraham Accords will increase if talks to revive the Iran nuclear agreement collapse. This, in turn, suggests that revival of the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remains important for U.S. security and regional stability. • By securing the JCPOA and supporting diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. maximizes the viability and utility of the Abraham Accords as well as their compatibility with a new and more inclusive regional security architecture. But supporting only the Abraham Accords without reentering the JCPOA and encouraging multilateral dialogue among the Arab Gulf states and Iran could transform the accords from a potential strategic asset to a liability.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Persian Gulf

33. Will a Military Withdrawal from the Middle East Leave a Vacuum?

Author:: Mark Perry
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • The Biden administration must not allow disputes among combatant commanders about resource allocation to dictate decisions concerning U.S. force posture. The White House has acknowledged that the Middle East is no longer as central a concern to our national security as it once was and that the U.S. must reshape its military presence in the region. • Fears that Russia or China might take advantage of a reduction in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East are exaggerated. China and Russia have both benefited from America’s willingness to shoulder the security burden of the Middle East. • Washington should complement its reduced military presence in the Middle East with greater diplomatic involvement. The objectives should be retaining influence and advancing U.S. interests in a peaceful and stable environment.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East

34. Iraq’s National Strategy to Counter Violent Extremism

Author:: Kamaran Palani
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Four years after the military defeat of the so-called Islamic State, pre-existing conditions associated with the risk of violent extremism continue unabated in Iraq. The current national strategy to counter violent extremism needs a comprehensive revision to include the context, needs and realities of the country’s different regions.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

35. Addressing Needs, Promoting Peace: A Proposal for an International Incentives Package for Israeli-Palestinian Peace

Author:: Lior Lehrs, Moien Odeh, Nimrod Goren, and Huda Abu Arqoub
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: peace processes and have the potential to contribute to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. A team of Israeli and Palestinian policy experts developed a joint proposal for an international package of incentives for peace. The proposal defines the central needs of the parties that the incentives package must address, focusing on security, recognition and legitimacy, religious rights, economic prosperity and domestic needs. It examines which international actors can be relevant in addressing those needs and should be part of an international incentives package, elaborating on the potential role of the US, the EU, and the Arab and the Muslim world. The proposal also discusses when and how a package of incentives should be introduced and delivered, and what should be the international mechanism required to promote it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, European Union, Peace, and Incentives
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

36. Providing security in Iraq - what do Iraqis think?

Author:: Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Denmark assumed leadership of NATO Mission Iraq in late 2020. The Iraqi people’s perceptions of their personal security and of those who provide it can impact the success of this mission. A recent survey provides new insights. At a time of political turmoil and insecurity in Iraq, NATO has vowed to step up its commitment in the region. This happens at a time of increased resistance to the US presence in Iraq, and a deteriorating security situation due to the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil, as well as signs of an Islamic State resurgence. Security is a major concern in Iraq. When respondents were asked to select their most important concern for the Iraqi government to address, the most common choice was ‘maintaining security and stability’ (30.5%), closely followed by the job situation (27.5%), and corruption (26.2%). This should be read in conjunction with the fact that 71.7% of respondents stated that they experience their personal security as currently either only partially or not at all ensured. This was most pronounced among the surveyed Shias, with only 18.8% indicating that they feel fully or partly secure in contrast to 46.7% of Sunni respondents.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Denmark

37. Making women count, not just counting women: Creating a more effective security sector in Iraq requires increased inclusiveness

Author:: Maria-Louise Clausen and Ekatherina Zhukova
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: A priority for NATO Mission Iraq is to further the Women, Peace and Security agenda as one of the mission’s activities. This effort should focus on raising awareness of the operational benefits of equal opportunities and diversity and not just counting the number of women involved. RECOMMENDATIONS: Formulate a clear mandate for WPS functions in the mission that positions the WPS agenda as an integral element of NMI’s other activities. Support awareness-raising programmes and initiatives to transform social norms, including patriarchal gender norms and institutional socio-political constraints on female participation. Support the transparent qualifications-based recruitment and employment of women and prioritize the focus on inclusive work environments, both mentally and physically. Incorporate intersectional and masculinity perspectives in the work on WPS to avoid creating an image of WPS as a foreign-backed agenda that is only of, by and for elite women.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Women, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

38. Multilayered Challenges: Why are foreign oil companies planning to leave Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Numerous foreign oil companies have recently announced plans to sell their shares in several major oil fields in Iraq, as part of measures that may negatively impact Iraqi oil production. There are multiple explanations for this step, including unstable security and political conditions as well as Iraq's failure to pay foreign companies their dues for operating the fields, in addition to the growing Chinese influence in the oil sector.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Business
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, and Middle East

39. Sustained Counterterrorism Efforts Remain Key to Preventing Attacks in Jordan

Author:: Saud Al-Sharafat
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The pandemic has not ended terrorism in Jordan, and ISIS is still a significant threat. Last year’s abnormally low terrorist activity in Jordan could be interpreted as an indication that the threat of ISIS in the country has diminished significantly. Unfortunately, this is not the case; while there are several explanations for the low occurrence of terrorist attacks in Jordan in 2020, none of them point to a future in which ISIS does not continue to pose a threat to Jordanian security. On the contrary, the decrease in ISIS activity in Jordan last year was primarily a result of effective counterterrorism efforts, not the special circumstances of the pandemic or any other factor. Accordingly, Jordanian anti-terror institutions should not relax their guard. Rather, they should capitalize on their successes, expanding cooperation with their partners and enhancing their resources in combatting extremism. Jordanian security forces should be especially concerned with activities along their borders. There have been several recent international and UN reports that confirmed the rising activities of terrorist groups in countries that border Jordan. Iraq in particular has seen a recent rise in terrorist attacks, including two suicide bombings in Baghdad on January 21, 2021 that killed 32 people and injured 110 others. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks. In turn, ISIS's mounting activities in Iraq have led to increased terrorist activity in the Badia al-Sham region and the Jordanian Syrian-Iraqi border triangle, where terrorist militants move in small, highly mobile groups. This increase in activity has prompted Jordanian security forces to strengthen their presence on the borders with Iraq and Syria. Following a Russian air campaign in the Badia region in late February, in which Russian planes launched at least 130 air strikes in one day against terrorist groups in the area, Jordan started to strengthen and tightened its security presence on the borders to prevent infiltration of ISIS elements into Jordan. Russian strikes were especially targeted at ISIS, which extends between the governorates of Homs and Deir al-Zour at the border with Iraq.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

40. Asset Test 2021: How the U.S. Can Keep Benefiting from Its Alliance with Israel

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and David Pollock
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Areas for especially timely U.S.-Israel cooperation include climate resilience, agtech, and medical research, as well as longstanding work in the military and security arenas. In the fifth in a series of TRANSITION 2021 memos examining the Middle East and North Africa, Michael Eisenstadt and David Pollock assess the multifaceted strengths of the U.S.-Israel partnership and its prospects for growth under the Biden administration. Areas for especially timely cooperation include climate resilience, agtech, and medical research, as well as longstanding work in the military and security arenas. Israel’s recent normalization deals with several Arab states only further widen the horizon. “Israel is a world-class innovator in technologies that will be critical to meeting future challenges, including artificial intelligence, information technology, and cybersecurity; sustainable water, food, and energy solutions; and high-tech medicine,” explain the authors. “All these areas are supportive of America’s foreign policy priorities.” In the coming weeks, TRANSITION 2021 memos by Washington Institute experts will address the broad array of issues facing the Biden-Harris administration in the Middle East. These range from thematic issues, such as the region’s strategic position in the context of Great Power competition and how to most effectively elevate human rights and democracy in Middle East policy, to more discrete topics, from Arab-Israel peace diplomacy to Red Sea security to challenges and opportunities in northwest Africa. Taken as a whole, this series of memos will present a comprehensive approach for advancing U.S. interests in security and peace in this vital but volatile region.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

41. The Interests of Global Powers in the Mediterranean and Israeli Policies

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This policy paper sets out the various interests and goals of global powers (the US, Russia, China and the EU) in the Mediterranean, and the measures they are undertaking to implement them. The document also describes Israeli policies vis-àvis the powers’ activities in this region, and points to the principles that should guide them. The paper is based on a July 2019 meeting in Jerusalem of the research and policy working group on Israel in the Mediterranean, held at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, Israel, United States of America, and Mediterranean

42. 2020 Country Brief: Saudi Arabia and its role in Yemen

Author:: Third Way
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been a close security and economic partner of the United States for most of the Kingdom’s history. But the United States cannot ignore Saudi Arabia’s gruesome acts and abuses, nor allow them to be swept under the rug. The two countries have critical differences on a number of key issues, including those related to terrorism, human rights, and regional security threats. Two particular actions taken by Saudi Arabia have caused Congress to revisit the US-Saudi relationship: Saudi-led military operations in Yemen that have killed thousands of innocent civilians and left millions on the brink of starvation; and The 2018 brutal murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi—a Saudi citizen and US resident—carried out by the Saudi government in Istanbul, Turkey. In the face of Saudi Arabia’s dangerous and destabilizing behavior, President Trump has doubled down on his support for the Kingdom and defied bipartisan congressional opposition to continue to sell arms to the Saudi government. Instead of permitting President Trump to allow autocrats and dictators to operate with impunity and commit acts of unimaginable horror, Congress must reassert its foreign policy decision-making power, impose targeted consequences on the Kingdom for its actions, and withdraw support for Saudi-led military operations in Yemen.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

43. Beyond Yemen's Militiadoms: Restarting from local agency

Author:: Eleanore Ardemagni
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The crisis in Yemen epitomises the complexity of contemporary intra-state conflicts: rather than a simple, binary war, the situation is characterised by various layers of conflict with multiple state, hybrid, non-state actors and foreign state powers playing active roles. Analysts and policymakers need to be aware of this complexity in order to grasp the drivers and implications of this war, and identify possible avenues for conflict resolution. Yemen matters a lot for the strategic interests of the EU: its Western waters are the southern frontier of the Mediterranean Sea. But Yemen has also become an arena of strategic competition for the Gulf and Middle Eastern state powers, who have constructed or taken over control of ports, military bases and airports along its coasts and islands as a springboard for projection in the Western Indian Ocean. Finally, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), established in 2009 and based in Yemen, remains one of the most entrenched and resilient jihadi networks in terms of local ties and political adaptability. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the intertwined layers of conflict in Yemen and their implications for war resolution efforts. The local-foreign nexus between Yemini and external actors needs to be disentangled to separate domestic drivers and the regional and/or sectarian dimensions of the conflict. Competing ‘militiadoms’ are on the rise, thus transforming the traditional Yemeni pattern of hybrid security governance into a multiple security governance scenario. The Brief examines the Yemeni crisis in all its complexity, focusing on existing and emerging dynamics. Interference by foreign state powers is both a cause and a consequence of the protracted conflict, while the potential for peace must be sought at local level. This approach will help to identify strategies for mitigating and possibly resolving the crisis.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Conflict, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

44. Continuity vs. Overreach in the Trump Peace Plan (Part 2): Security, Refugees, and Narratives

Author:: Ghaith al-Omari
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: By granting Israel much more say over the sovereignty of a future Palestinian state and its ability to absorb refugees, the document may undermine the administration’s ability to build an international coalition behind its policies. President Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” plan was presented as a departure from previous approaches—a notion that invited praise from its supporters (who saw it as a recognition of reality) and criticism from its opponents (who saw it as an abandonment of valued principles). The plan does in fact diverge from past efforts in fundamental respects, yet there are also some areas of continuity, and ultimately, the extent to which it gains traction will be subject to many different political and diplomatic variables. Even so, the initial substance of the plan document itself will play a large part in determining how it is viewed by various stakeholders, especially those passages that veer away from the traditional path on core issues. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch assessed what the plan says about two such issues: borders and Jerusalem. This second installment discusses security, refugee, and narrative issues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Refugees, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

45. The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 2): Regime Culpability and Resiliency

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Even as their lack of transparency worsens the public health crisis, the Supreme Leader and other officials have systematically gutted any civil society elements capable of organizing substantial opposition to such policies. Iran’s ongoing coronavirus epidemic has left the people with less reason than ever to trust the information and directives issued by their leaders. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch discussed the clergy’s role in aggravating this problem, but the state’s mistakes and deceptions have been legion as well. They include scandalous discrepancies between official reports after a period of denial that the virus had entered the country; a health system that was unprepared to deal with such a disease promptly and properly; and official resistance to implementing internationally recommended precautionary measures, such as canceling flights from China and quarantining the center of the outbreak. These decisions have sown widespread confusion about facts and fictions related to the virus, the most effective medically proven ways to control it, and the degree to which it is spreading throughout the country. As a result, an already restive population has become increasingly panicked about the future and angry at the state. Yet can the coronavirus actually bring down the regime? The harsh reality is that the state has left little space for opposition to organize around health issues, or any issues for that matter. Instead, it has sought to confuse the people and redirect their anger toward external enemies, even as its own policies contribute to the crisis.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Health, Public Health, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

46. Pugwash Note on the Iran Nuclear Agreement and Middle Eastern Security

Author:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:: This is a very short note addressing the issue of the Iran nuclear agreement and pointing out some key issues that are relevant to enhancing Middle Eastern security.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

47. United G20 must pave the way for robust post-COVID-19 recovery

Author:: Phil Thornton
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The world is facing unprecedented health and economic crises that require a global solution. Governments have locked down their economies to contain the mounting death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. With this response well underway, now is the time to move into a recovery effort. This will require a coordinated response to the health emergency and a global growth plan that is based on synchronized monetary, fiscal, and debt relief policies. Failure to act will risk a substantial shock to the postwar order established by the United States and its allies more than seventy years ago. The most effective global forum for coordinating this recovery effort is the Group of 20 (G20), which led the way out of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, the closest parallel we have to the current catastrophe. Eleven years ago, world leaders used the G20 meeting in London as the forum to deliver a unified response and a massive fiscal stimulus that helped stem economic free fall and prevented the recession from becoming a second Great Depression. A decade on, it is clear that the G20 is the only body with the clout to save the global economy. This does not mean that the G20 should be the only forum for actions for its member states. The United States, for example, should also work closely with like-minded states that support a rules-based world order, and there are many other fora where it can and must be active with partners and allies. But no others share the G20’s depth and breadth in the key focus areas for recovery. The other multilateral organizations that could take up the challenge lack either the substance or membership. The United Nations may count all countries as members but is too unwieldly to coordinate a response. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has the resources but requires direction from its 189 members. The Group of Seven (G7), which once oversaw financial and economic management, does not include the fast-growing emerging economies. The G20 represents both the world’s richest and fastest-growing countries, making it the forum for international collaboration. It combines that representation with agility.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, G20, Global Markets, Geopolitics, Economy, Business, Trade, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

48. Troubled vision: Understanding recent Israeli–Iranian offensive cyber exchanges

Author:: JD Work and Richard Harknett
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Reported Iranian intrusions against Israeli critical infrastructure networks and alleged Israeli actions against Iranian proliferation-associated targets pose substantial new challenges to understanding ongoing competition and conflict in the Middle East. These cyber exchanges may be interpreted through two distinct lenses: as the struggle to achieve deterrence using the instrument of cyber operations, or as the contest for initiative in order to establish conditions for relative security advantage in a cyber-persistent environment. Either way, these ongoing incidents are best understood not as “bolt out of the blue” attacks, but rather fleeting glimpses of continuing cyber campaigns leveraging previously disclosed and newly developed capabilities as each side grapples to anticipate cyber vulnerability and shape the conditions of exploitation. The opaque nature of these interactions is further complicated by potential bureaucratic politics and interservice rivalries, as well as unknown dynamics of a counter-proliferation campaign to slow, disrupt and potentially destroy Iranian nuclear capacity. In the end, observed cyber actions may not represent reflections of accurate strategic calculation, and even if aligned to the operational environment they may not lead to intended outcomes. Continuous failure to deter, or inability to manage persistent interactions, may lead to greater dangers.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cybersecurity, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

49. Drone attacks against critical infrastructure: A real and present threat

Author:: Scott Crino and Conrad "Andy" Dreby
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The use of drones as weapons in the Middle East and North Africa has grown rapidly in recent years, especially as non-state actors from the Houthis in Yemen to militants in Syria seek to level the playing field. Often powered by widely available commercial technology, these systems present a real and present security challenge. What should policymakers do to adapt to this new threat? How can they best structure defenses and leverage available technology to protect key assets? “Drone Attacks Against Critical Infrastructure,” by Dr. Scott Crino and Conrad “Andy” Dreby, addresses these questions and more. Crino is founder and CEO and Dreby is director of red-teaming at Red Six Solutions, LLC. The authors analyze developments in the use of weaponized drones in the Middle East and beyond, exploring how regional policymakers can adapt to mitigate this threat.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

50. States within the state: Kadhimi’s challenge is to bring Shia militias under control

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The security crisis facing the Kadhimi government and the Iraqi state is a major obstacle to stability and economic development in Iraq, representing a significant drain on the country’s resources and capacities.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Governance, Economic Development, and Militias
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

51. Protests and Regime Suppression in Post-Revolutionary Iran

Author:: Saeid Golkar
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of unrest, from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student protests spanning 1999-2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and the December 2017-January 2018 upheaval in smaller cities and urban fringes. The most recent instance, sparked in November 2019 by a gas tax hike, spread to as many as one hundred municipalities and still reverberates today. The hardline Iranian regime has successfully put down all challenges to its authority thus far, causing numerous injuries and deaths in the process. State agents are also known to have perpetrated torture in prisons. But as Saeid Golkar contends in this prescient Policy Note, a climate of coercion has undermined Tehran’s legitimacy and its ability to coopt various social classes. Future protests, if they continue to grow in volume and violence, could exhaust even the regime’s multilayered security forces.
Topic:: Security, History, Social Movement, Protests, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

52. A Paris Reset on Hezbollah? Implications for French Interests and Regional Security

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In this study, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt explores the history and current status of Hezbollah operations against French interests, and details how a change in Paris's longstanding opposition to designating the group could bolster French efforts to stabilize Lebanon. Lebanon’s corrupt political system needs major reforms, but Hezbollah has indicated, unsurprisingly, that it will reject any changes that diminish its political status. Specifically, the group insisted in late September that it maintain control of key ministries in any future government. This demand cut against the work of French authorities seeking to help stabilize the country following the devastating port blast in early August. In his response, President Emmanuel Macron signaled a break from typical French passivity toward Hezbollah. He denounced the group’s attempts to pose as a legitimate political party while engaging in militant activity independent of the Lebanese state. In this Policy Note, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt shares the little-known story of Hezbollah’s targeting of French interests, dating to the early 1980s. He then shows how the group poses a unique and growing set of challenges to France, both at home and abroad, and argues that Paris should reconsider its longtime opposition to designating Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organization. Such a policy change, he contends, would bolster Macron’s efforts to stabilize Lebanon while mitigating threats within French territory.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon

53. Partial Local Autonomy in Southern Syria: Conditions, Durability, and Replicability

Author:: Alexander Decina
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In July 2018, Daraa Governorate, once home to an array of rebel groups and local governance councils, supported by significant international assistance, was partially recaptured by the Government of Syria (GoS). Through a combination of force and negotiations, the GoS has restored control over key routes and infrastructure, although a number of former rebel groups have retained limited autonomy in their own communities. Since then, poor security and economic conditions, inadequate services, and competition between and among GoS security actors and former opposition factions have challenged the status quo in Daraa, but, by and large, the situation has held. These negotiated outcomes – and the GoS’s willingness to accept them – were predicated upon multiple factors, including the relatively moderate nature of southern opposition factions, Russian and Israeli military postures, and the historical connections of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) in Daraa. While lessons learned from the south are important, the particular conditions and outcomes i
Topic:: Security, Governance, Local, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

54. The Forgotten Peace at Twenty-Five: How to Protect and Strengthen Israel-Jordan Ties

Author:: Ghaith al-Omari and Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the peace treaty, both parties and the United States have strategic interests in upholding and reinforcing the relationship. The optimism that characterized the signing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty a quarter-century ago has long since dissipated. Today, the peace rests on a strong security foundation but lacks popular support, particularly on the Jordanian side. Nevertheless, there remain important opportunities for strengthening Israel-Jordan relations and preserving that pillar of America’s steadily eroding security architecture in the Middle East. It is critical for Washington to prioritize Jordan on its agenda. This includes urging the still-to-be-formed Israeli government to take responsible action on two fronts: keeping Amman’s interests in mind when formulating policy toward the West Bank, and implementing long-delayed initiatives that would help Jordan’s struggling economy.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, Jordan, and United States of America

55. Cyber-Security: The Threats from Russia and the Middle East

Author:: Ferry de Kerckhove
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The art of war has changed considerably since the end of the Second World War. In the last 15 years, the centre of gravity has slowly shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The West is increasingly being destabilized. Hybrid warfare and cyber-attacks have become increasingly effective alternatives to both hard and soft power. Russia is a major player in this domain; so is Iran. Other players are joining the fray, most of them hostile to the West, such as Iran and Russia’s client states. The barriers between civilian and military are fading quickly. All-out war now happens in a space that’s invisible to the naked eye. Not only is such warfare threatening us, but it also has consequences we have barely begun to assess. The divide between good and bad is blurring. Marshall McLuhan said the medium is the message. Today, the medium and the message are an undecipherable continuum where evil and lies coexist with truth and goodwill. Technological prowess increases vulnerability, but technology is also at the heart of corresponding systems of security. Thus, we have fully entered a new arms race where deterrence comes from the other side knowing what you don’t want him to discover, but what you want him to fear. Voltaire said: “If you wish to speak to me, let us start by defining the meaning of our words.” In this day and age, this mantra is particularly applicable to the definition of contemporary threats as well as of the targets, or even who is in the sights of Russian and Middle Eastern leaders. “Cyberspace is a domain characterized by the use of electronics and the electromagnetic spectrum to store, modify, and exchange data via networked systems and associated physical infrastructures. In effect, cyberspace can be thought of as the interconnection of human beings through computers and telecommunication, without regard to physical geography.” Consequently, “(c)ybersecurity is the practice of protecting systems, networks, and programs from digital attacks. These cyberattacks are usually aimed at accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users; or interrupting normal business processes. Implementing effective cybersecurity measures is particularly challenging today because there are more devices than people, and attackers are becoming more innovative.” Discussions focus on whether Russia or China is the heavyweight in terms of threat. Some argue that China is more subtle while Russia is more of a rogue. But it is undeniable that China’s attempt to change the fundamental paradigm of international relations, while using and hopefully subduing the existing international order’s mechanisms to its advantage, represents a holistic approach and is thus more threatening to the world if it even partly succeeds. Indeed, the planet’s centre of gravity is moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific and that means the global threat comes from China. If we needed a reminder, in 2014 Chinese hackers stole the personal information of more than 22 million people connected to U.S. security clearance processes. Not bad for five years ago!
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, and Middle East

56. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis

Author:: Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
Topic:: Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

57. We Need to Distinguish Between Local and Globalist Foreign Fighters

Author:: Maja Touzari Greenwood
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The broad definition of the term ‘foreign fighter’ causes operational problems for risk assessments. It is therefore important for security officials to identify significant variations by classifying actors into major categories. RECOMMENDATIONS ■When assessing the risk of continued security threats from foreign fighters, it is crucial to distinguish strategically between foreign fighters who join local rebel groups and those who join globalist groups. ■Ways should be provided for foreign fighters who have joined local rebel groups to ‘opt out’ and return home after the end of fighting in order to discourage them from becoming globalist foreign fighters and to stem potential flows of foreign fighters to new theatres of conflict.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Fragile States
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

58. The Impact of Remote Surveillance in Iraq: A tool of coercion or public security

Author:: Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The state of Iraq is struggling to exert control over its territory. As a result, remote surveillance is being used to enhance the effectiveness of policing. However, constant surveillance may have a negative impact on emerging state–society relations. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Invest in research focusing on the impact of surveillance on state–society relations in the Global South. ■ Work to introduce transparency in the use of surveillance in the Global South. ■ Encourage a discussion of issues of privacy and the regulation of airspace in the Global South.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Fragile States, Surveillance, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Global South

59. Eagles riding the storm of war: The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party

Author:: Nick Grinstead, Christopher Solomon, and Jesse McDonald
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Eagles of the Whirlwind are one of the many militias that have fought on the part of President Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. The regime allowed it to defend and police Syrian territory and, in some cases, to fight alongside the Syrian Arab Army on the frontlines. The group proved to be a capable and effective paramilitary auxiliary. What makes the Eagles of interest is that its parent political party - the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) – was able to increase the space for its political activities in exchange for the battlefield services of its militia. This is not a mean feat under the authoritarian system of decades of Assad-rule that brooked no political diversity whatsoever. It is all the more remarkable because the SSNP has historically been a political rival to the Syrian Ba’ath party. This policy brief analyses the main interests and dynamics by which the SSNP managed to translate the battlefield support and achievements of the Eagles into ministerial positions and open recruitment rallies for party members across regime-held territory. It also examines the SSNP as a novel form of support to the Assad regime that traded greater political auton¬omy for paramilitary mobilization in support of the regime - without, so far, resulting in a more permanent role for the Eagles in the Syrian security architecture. While accepting greater political autonomy for the SSNP was a price the Assad regime was willing to pay for extra auxiliary fighting capacity, it remains to be seen how durable the SSNP’s hard-won autonomy will be.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Militias, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

60. China’s great game in the Middle East

Author:: Camille Lons, Jonathan Fulton, Degang Sun, and Naser Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: China has significantly increased its economic, political, and – to a lesser extent – security footprint in the Middle East in the past decade, becoming the biggest trade partner and external investor for many countries in the region. China still has a limited appetite for challenging the US-led security architecture in the Middle East or playing a significant role in regional politics. Yet the country’s growing economic presence is likely to pull it into wider engagement with the region in ways that could significantly affect European interests. Europeans should monitor China’s growing influence on regional stability and political dynamics, especially in relation to sensitive issues such as surveillance technology and arms sales. Europeans should increase their engagement with China in the Middle East, aiming to refocus its economic role on constructive initiatives.
Topic:: Security, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

61. Cooperative Ideas for New Communication & Conference Processes in the Middle East/Gulf

Author:: Marc Finaud and Bernd W. Kubbig
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In our new Track II initiative we will present, discuss, and disseminate Cooperative Ideas jointly developed at two International Expert Conferences in Frankfurt and Berlin (see issue No. 1 of this New Publication Series at academicpeaceorchestra.com). The aim is to help establish promising focal points around which especially the relevant regional actors in the disarmament & non-proliferation area can rally. They may ultimately lead to constructive and sustainable dialogue mechanisms which are so rare – and so needed – in the Middle East/Gulf. The Two Expert Panels in Vienna are our starting point with a Third Panel envisaged for the Second NPT PrepCom in Geneva as a follow-up event. They are presented in this POLICY FORUM No. 2.
Topic:: Security, Communications, and Conference
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

62. Exploring the Transfer Potential of the JCPOA for Zonal Disarmament Arrangements in the Middle East/Gulf

Author:: Daniel Muller
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: This Policy Forum issue advocates using elements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or agreement/accord) in prospective negotiations to create a zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs) in the Middle East. In a stalemated situation resembling efforts to negotiate a zonal arrangement, the JCPOA after more than 12 years of negotiations succeeded in striking a multilateral deal among adversaries with diverging capabilities and agendas who doubted each other’s intentions and were reluctant to make concessions.By establishing an incentive-based mechanism that encouraged and facilitated cooperation, the JCPOA succeeded in trading various issues to reach common ground in an incremental step-by-step approach of carefully sequenced quid pro quos. Framed as an agreement among equals and safeguarded by multiple compliance mechanisms, the JCPOA (or aspects of it) could serve as a toolbox for zonal negotiations on disarmament, help to link hardened actors, and break up entrenched interest structures and dogmatic policy positions.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, and Disarmament
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

63. Why We Need New Communication & Conference Processes and How They Could Come About: the Classical Role of this Track-II Initiative

Author:: Marc Finaud and Bernd W. Kubbig
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: This New Publication Series POLICY FORUM is in addition to the Two Expert Panels conducted at the First NPT PrepCom in Vienna on May 8 and 10, 2017 our second Track II tool. Both aim at presenting, discussing, and disseminating the jointly developed Cooperative Ideas as potential rallying points for the most important actors in the entire Middle East/Gulf. The main goal is to help achieving what is most needed: relaunching New Communication & Conference Processes in the disarmament & non-proliferation area; this is seen as the core element of, ultimately all-inclusive, security arrangements for the region consisting of two centers of gravity relevant for our new, comprehensive approach for the entire Middle East/Gulf.
Topic:: Security, Weapons, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, Trade, and Conference
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

64. Against All Odds - Decreasing the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry for Regional Hegemony through and in the Wake of the JCPOA

Author:: Bernd W. Kubbig, Marc Finaud, and Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The dangerous spiralling of the rivalry between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran for hegemony/supremacy in the Middle East/Gulf is the factor that has the most negative impact on the entire region. The authors make the case for using the specific features and successful negotiations of the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a way to downgrade this bilateral rivalry. This agreement was the focal point of (pre-)negotiations especially between the United States and Iran that de-escalated the tensions between the two enemies and turned them – at least during the administration of President Barack Obama – into adversaries with an interest in selective cooperation. The agreement is living proof that formerly incompatible interests can be overcome. It is true, however, that, despite its complexity, the JCPOA can only have a limited influence on developments in the region. This is why the authors identify the roots of the intensifying Saudi Iranian rivalry at the domestic, regional and international levels – with corresponding recommended steps to de-escalate this struggle. The prospects for such a positive scenario appear to be particularly promising if elites in both Riyadh and Tehran – especially since they are facing increasing domestic challenges to regime/government stability – opt to slow down or even reverse their countries’ current course. A more assertive population, especially among women and the youth, has become a new factor for serious change. This may incentivise these elites to pursue less costly foreign policy approaches – including finding appropriate forums for serious dialogue, with de-escalating the mutually demonising rhetoric as the first step.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

65. Water Security and Growth: The case of the Middle East and North Africa Countries

Author:: Jamal Saghir
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:: Today, the challenge of water security is global, and growing. Achieving and sustaining water security, in both developed and developing countries, is likely to increase in complexity and priority—not only as climate change intensifies, but also as the demands of economic growth increase. While most developed countries invested heavily in water security, often starting early on their path to growth, most of the world’s developing countries remain relatively water insecure. The dominant threats to water security vary geographically and over time. Relative risks to populations vary globally: South Asia has the largest global concentration of population at risk of all water-related hazards; the Middle East and North Africa (MNA)2 stands out as having the highest percentage of the population facing scarcity and the only region where risks are still growing; and Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest percentage of population without access to water and sanitation. What is clear is that water security is not a stagnant goal, it is a dynamic process affected by changing climate, political set up, growing economies, and resource degradation. Moreover, as social, cultural, political, economic priorities and values evolve, water security will evolve with them. This note argues that in the MNA countries, instead of water security becoming an impediment to growth and factor in conflicts, water for growth and water security can be a factor of prosperity and peace.
Topic:: Security, Development, Water, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

66. Swinging Between Hope and Despair: Kabul Citizens’ Voting Behaviour in the 2018 Wolesi Jirga Election

Author:: Mohammad Mahdi Zaki, Sediqa Bakhitari, and Mohammad Hassan Wafaey
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: This Briefing Paper presents a summary of the initial findings from AREU’s research on the parliamentary elections. The study aims to analyse the voting behaviour of Kabul citizens in the upcoming 2018 Wolesi Jirga elections. Taking into consideration the deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan (The World Bank , 2018), as well as the long delay in holding elections, this study will mainly focus on the factors that are going to influence the voting behaviour of Kabul residents in the 2018 parliamentary elections. The paper will first describe the methodology, followed by the initial key findings from the research and conclude with a number of recommendations
Topic:: Security, Elections, Democracy, Election watch, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

67. Trade restrictions lead to lower wages and more violence: Although motivated by security considerations, the Israeli restrictions on imports to the OPT have negative economic and political consequences

Author:: Francesco Amodio and M. Di Maio
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:: Import restrictions of dual-use goods and materials led to lower output and wages paid in sectors using those materials more intensively as production inputs. Local labor market conditions worsened in areas where employment is concentrated in these sectors. Episodes of political violence were more likely to occur in those same localities as a consequence. Security-motivated trade restrictions have a negative effect on industrial output and local labor markets. Economic integration could bring possibly high returns in terms of political stabilization.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Political stability, and Trade
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

68. Iran Is ‘On Notice’—What’s Next?

Author:: Brian Katulis and Muath Al Wari
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has pledged to address Iran’s destabilizing policies in the Middle East. His first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, infamously put Iran “on notice” in early February.1 But more than two months into his presidency, it has become clear that the Trump administration lacks a comprehensive strategy to deal effectively with Iran while moving forward in the fight against the Islamic State, or IS, and long-term efforts to stabilize the region. Already, the United States risks ramping up military operations in a way that could contribute to the fragmentation of the Middle East’s state system and open the space for the continued rise of nonstate actors. Without a broader regional strategy that links military approaches to diplomatic efforts in conflict resolution, tactical and operational shifts in U.S. military policy in the Middle East could make the region even more unstable.2 Congress, then, should adopt a look-before-you-leap approach when it comes to the idea of new sanctions against Iran.3 Such an approach would allow Congress to carefully hone any new measures to deal effectively with Iran’s policies. Congress also has an important role in asking tough questions about proposed increased military operations in places such as Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.4 Furthermore, Congress should carefully scrutinize Trump’s proposed budget cuts to funding for national security institutions central to the fight for stability in the Middle East. These cuts would prolong the fight against ISIS and weaken America’s hand in dealing with Iran using a multifaceted, integrated approach.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

69. Trump’s First 100 Days in the Middle East

Author:: Daniel Benaim
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The 10th week of Donald Trump’s presidency began with his aides’ declaration that America no longer sought the departure of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.1 It ended with missile strikes on Assad’s bases.2 The sharp shifts in Trump’s approach were a reminder that, even under the best of circumstances, the first 100 days of any presidency represent a work in progress—a moment of fluidity as campaign rhetoric gives way to governing realities; policy reviews give way to articulated strategy; and, if a president hopes to succeed, a vital window to reflect on early lessons learned.3 To date, President Trump’s actions in the Middle East have told a starkly different story from his bombastic rhetoric. While his process has been erratic, his initial policy approach to the region as president has been marked less by wholesale departures from former President Barack Obama’s policies than by shifts in emphasis that, unless corrected, risk longer-term damage to U.S. interests and regional stability.4 Trump’s limited strikes in Syria in early April are illustrative: While many cast the decision to launch limited strikes in Syria as a stark departure, Trump rushed to reassert his earlier hands-off policy regarding Syria’s civil war.5
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

70. No longer a new kid on the block – China in the Middle East

Author:: James Moran
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Given China’s growing role in the complex security dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, the EU should intensify its dialogue and, where interests coincide, joint action with Beijing. Last month’s Chinese Communist Party Congress, with its stress on President Xi Jinping’s strong leadership at home and abroad, has sparked much discussion on how the rest of the world, not least the EU, should deal with a new political behemoth in their backyards. There is nothing new, of course, about China’s economic prowess. For some time now, it has been a major, if not indeed the, prime investor and trader in numerous countries around the world. But with power vacuums appearing in the wake of the Trump administration’s neo-isolationism, and following China’s military-led expansion in the South China Sea, could it be that Beijing is about to become more of a global rule-maker, rather than a rule-taker in international security? The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an interesting, and for Europeans, sensitive case in point. And there is some evidence that China is moving beyond its traditional interest in the stability of Gulf oil and gas supplies, and raising its profile in the region.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

71. Why Cyber Operations Do Not Always Favor the Offense

Author:: Rebecca Slayton
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Bottom Lines: Creating unnecessary vulnerabilities. Making offensive cyber operations a national priority can increase instabilities in international relations and worsen national vulnerabilities to attack. But because the skills needed for offense and defense are similar, military offensive readiness can be maintained by focusing on defensive operations that make the world safer, rather than on offensive operations. Managing complexity. The ease of both offense and defense increases as organizational skills and capability in managing complex technology improve; it declines as the complexity of cyber operations rises. What appears to be offensive advantage is primarily a result of the offense’s relatively simple goals and the defense’s poor management. Assessing kinetic effects. It is often more expensive for the offense to achieve kinetic effects—for instance, sabotaging machinery—than for the defense to prevent them. An empirical analysis of the Stuxnet cyberattacks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities shows that Stuxnet likely cost the offense more than the defense and was relatively ineffective.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, Nuclear Power, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Middle East and North America

72. The Assessment of EU Crisis Response in Afghanistan

Author:: Chona R. Echavez and Qayoom Suroush
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: The European Union with the Member States have been key donors for Afghanistan who have donated approximately EUR 8 billion for the period 2002-2010. With the collaboration of international partners, the EU took on a major role in the stabilisation and reconstruction efforts.1 After the overthrow of Taliban rule in 2001, the international community, along with various Afghan political elites, attended the UN conference in Bonn that resulted the Bonn Agreement to determine the establishment of the Afghan interim government and also the deployment of international military forces to aid the new administration in ensuring the security of Kabul and other provinces. The EU and its member states agreed to assist the government of Afghanistan in establishing a sturdy framework of the rule of law in the country
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Rule of Law, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, and Middle East

73. Women, Gender and Terrorism: The Missing Links

Author:: Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Michael E. Brown
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: In March 2016, WIIS launched the Women, Terrorism, and Violent Extremism program. With the generous support of the Embassy of Liechtenstein in Washington, D.C., WIIS will facilitate a series of expert roundtables to explore the role of women in terrorist and violent extremist organizations, including the gendered dimensions of radicalization. These round tables will provide a forum for bringing together an international group of experts and policymakers from the counter-terrorism and Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) communities. Key takeaways and recommendations of expert roundtables will be captured and disseminated in the form of policy briefs. The first Policy Brief draws on the first roundtable discussion, held on March 20, 2016. This roundtable featured four noted experts: Ms. Sanam Anderlini, Co-founder and Executive Director of the International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN); Dr. Kathleen Kuehnast, Senior Gender Advisor at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP); Dr. Paul Pillar, former official of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and now a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Dr. Lorenzo Vidino, Director of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University’s Center for Cyber and Homeland Security.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Women, Radicalization, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

74. The Devil is in the Details: Nangarhar’s Continued Decline into Insurgency, Violence and Widespread Drug Production

Author:: David Mansfield
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: Nangarhar - a province that historically has been one of the major entry points for the capture of Kabul - is in complete disarray. It lies in chaos, riven by a process of political fragmentation that has increased in both pace and severity since the presidential elections and the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG).
Topic:: Security, Elections, State Formation, Local, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

75. Saudi Arabia: The New Power Structure

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: King Salman has confirmed his reputation as a religious conservative through the reappointment of traditionalist clerics However he has also made some effort to streamline the Saudi government Recent changes have given considerable power to two men from the next generation: King Salman's son and his nephew The result may be good for hard security measures, but less certain for the soft measures necessary for Saudi Arabia to weather the storm.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

76. TSG IntelBrief: Responding to the Islamic State

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The Islamic State's murder of Jordanian hostage Lt Moaz al-Kasasbeh was both a message to the group's fighters that it can counter the coalition's relentless airstrikes as well as an offensive move designed to provoke a high-profile overreaction The air campaign against the Islamic State has been relentless while at the same time has receded from the headlines-a double blow to the group in that it suffers the losses but doesn't benefit from the attendant spectacle The drawn-out 'negotiations' over this past month-while the hostage was already dead-were likely intended to sow division and tension in Jordan, and draw attention to the issue as long as possible before the gruesome finale While Jordan is understandably enraged and will have to strike back, the most effective response might be an escalation that continues to kill the group's fighters away from the headlines.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

77. TSG IntelBrief: Iran's Strategic Expansion

Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Outside of its own borders, Iran now has significant proxy presence and influence in four countries encompassing 1.1 million square kilometers and 82 million people, in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon It has done this by leveraging tactical decisions made by other countries into its own strategic expansion; from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and now Yemen, Iran is taking advantage of the short-term actions of others in its long-term plan The complete collapse of the U.S.-aided Yemeni president and the associated counterterrorism and military support is just the latest example of measures intended to address immediate pressures, which ultimately benefit Iran-all while U.S. airstrikes support Iraqi and Iranian militias in Tikrit against the immediate threat of the Islamic State It's not that Iranian leaders are all-knowing, masterful chess players but rather that the Middle East has for decades been a battlefield of ad hoc stability measures by numerous countries that have enabled Iran to steadily project power, to the extreme concern of countries such as Saudi Arabia, which has now launched airstrikes in Yemen.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

78. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State

Author:: Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

79. What the Women Say: Resisting the New Conservatism: Women’s campaigns for rights, peace and participation in Turkey

Author:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:: For nearly a century, Turkey has been a model of a modern secular Islamic nation. As a member of the G-20 and NATO, a candidate for the European Union, and boasting the world’s 16th largest economy, Turkey’s influence in regional and international security and economics has steadily grown. Yet modern Turkey is at risk from a rising conservatism, willing to trade economic growth for human rights advances. This brief examines the current challenges of women’s and civil society groups in Turkey, highlighting effective initiatives and advocacy strategies. Turkey offers significant lessons for other countries similarly struggling to maintain the momentum of democratic reform in the context of growing conservatism. The stakes are higher than ever for international actors, Turkish civil society, and women’s rights groups to strategize and work together effectively.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Civil Society, Economics, Women, Peace, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

80. Helmand on the Move: Migration as a Response to Crop Failure

Author:: David Mansfield
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: This paper provides an account of how the shift in security provision from a combined ISAF and ANSF operation to one driven by local actors has impacted upon a number of different locations in central Helmand. It is based on 140 in-depth interviews conducted in ten research sites in May 2015, and draws on a more extensive body of research consisting of fieldwork in many of the same locations dating back to May 2008.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, and Local
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

81. Briefing Note on Fieldwork in Balkh Province, May 2015 Opium Poppy and Rural Livelihoods

Author:: Paul Fishstein
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: The following notes describe very initial findings from fieldwork done in ten villages in Balkh Province’s Chimtal and Char Bolak Districts during the first two weeks of May 2015. Located west of Mazar-e Sharif, these areas have been counted among the relatively insecure areas of the province, where households have moved in and out of opium poppy cultivation since it was banned in earnest in 2007.
Topic:: Security, Drugs, Trade, and Farming
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

82. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Monumental Mistake by the Obama Administration or a New Beginning?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The nuclear deal reached between Iran and the P5+1, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, will be scrutinized by diplomats, military experts and politicians for months and years to come. Statesmen and politicians will interpret the deal differently and each will vie to use the argument which suites the audience and the domestic base she/he represents. However, the psychological, economic, political, and military implications of the deal on the United States, Europe and many Middle Eastern countries will be monumental. The deal will impact the balance of power in the Middle East and will change its dynamics forever, change the dynamics of the energy markets in Europe, Thus creating tension between Russia and Europe, and will ignite a fierce security debate between Democrats and Republicans in the United States on the culture of regime change and the use of force. The deal will bring the subject of regime change to the political forefront in the US and will raise a serious question on whether the use of force is the only effective mechanism to change the behavior of states in order to achieve favorable outcomes. Both Republicans and Democrats used force as a tool for regime change, however the Obama administration is a advocating for new means: diplomacy.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Regime Change, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

83. Cybersecurity and Stability in the Gulf

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

84. Making the Case: Congress Should Pass New Authorization for Use of Force Against ISIS

Author:: Mieke Eoyang and Peter Billerbeck
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: Congress should pass a new, specific authorization for the President to act against ISIS. ISIS represents a substantial threat, and left unchecked, could launch attacks against the US. Because defeating ISIS will be a long-term effort, it is incumbent on Congress to pass a new authorization for the use of force. Unlike previous authorizations, this one should be carefully tailored and come in the context of a broader strategy.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

85. After Ukraine – NATO should stay vigilant on the Middle East

Author:: Jakob Aarøe Jørgensen
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Leading up to the NATO Summit in September, the crisis in Ukraine has vindicated some NATO members' fears of Russia. This could cause NATO to revert to a narrow focus on Article 5 defense. Yet, other issues still pose threats and NATO should remain vigilant towards security challenges from the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East

86. Mosul Security Crisis: A Chance to Break Iraq's Political Logjam

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The loss of government control in a major city may be just the wakeup call Iraqi politicians need to embrace a more ambitious reconciliation agenda.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

87. After Ukraine – NATO should stay vigilant on the Middle East

Author:: Jakob Aroe Jorgensen and Adam Gardner
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Threats emanating from the Middle East still pose serious security challenges to NATO, though some see the crisis in Ukraine as the most serious security challenge yet to the alliance in the post-Cold War era. NATO must remain vigilant towards these threats, not allowing the crisis in Ukraine to eclipse all other contingencies.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Middle East

88. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt

Author:: Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and Egypt

89. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy

Author:: Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

90. Losing Syria and Iraq to Jihadists

Author:: Faysal Itani
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Jihadists are steadily capturing territory and resources and establishing a state in Syria and Iraq. The most capable jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), now controls swathes of territory, energy resources, and sophisticated military hardware in both countries. Although the extremists are currently occupied with fighting other nonregime armed groups and the Syrian and Iraqi regimes, these efforts are a means to an end: building a state from which to confront and target the United States, its allies, and its interests in the region. These jihadist groups also bring boundless suffering to the populations they control, and serve as a magnet for and inspiration to jihadists worldwide.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

91. Extremism as Mainstream: Implications for Women, Development & Security in the MENA/Asia Region

Author:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:: In 2013, ICAN, in partnership with the MIT Center for International Studies and the Association for Women’s Rights in Development (AWID), hosted a two-day roundtable to better understand rising religious extremism from a gendered and grounds-up perspective, highlighting the essential yet often overlooked implications for women and the efforts of civil society on the ground. The meeting included civil society practitioners, scholars and journalists with expertise from Canada, Pakistan, Malaysia, Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, the United States, and Iran. The roundtable addressed a range of questions. The statements and perspectives included here reflect views shared during the roundtable, and related research and analysis by ICAN. While this brief cannot do justice to the depth and complexity of the discussions, it is intended as a catalyst to widen the space for discussion, research, policy and practice among international and national level scholars and practitioners.
Topic:: Security, Development, Violent Extremism, and Women
Political Geography:: Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

92. Turkey-Egypt Relations: Incentives to Normalize

Author:: Omar Sheira
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The 2011 Arab uprisings marked a turning point for Turkey’s foreign policy toward the Middle East. When the protests erupted in Egypt, former Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became the first leader to voice support for former President Hosni Mubarak’s immediate resignation. However, the months following Morsi’s removal marked an historic deterioration of bilateral ties: Egypt’s ambassador to Turkey was withdrawn; Turkey’s ambassador to Egypt was expelled; both countries declared each other’s ambassador persona non grata; and Egypt downgraded its relations with Turkey to chargé d’affaires. This policy brief advocates renewing efforts to revive bilateral diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt, both countries of strategic importance. Further, it explores the geopolitical, security, economic, and capacity-building incentives which can facilitate the normalization of Turkish-Egyptian relations.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

93. Egypt’s Obstructed Horizon: Regime in Crisis and Fragmented Opposition

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Both parties to the Egyptian conflict have depended on the conflict to sustain their existence. As a result, the prospects for reconciliation between the regime and the main opposition force, the Muslim Brotherhood, are very slim. In the short-term, reconciliation appears to be entirely improbable. However, this does not mean that either camp is in a comfortable position. Despite the steadfastness of its street protests for over a year, the popular opposition movement appears to be no closer to displacing the regime than it was in the summer of 2013. For the regime, while there is undoubtedly a strong state apparatus behind Sisi, this has not enabled it to maintain stability nor to solve Egypt’s economic dilemmas and resolve the dramatic deterioration in the state’s ability to care for its people. Finally, controversy between various groups on the ground and tensions among opposition leaders suggest that the mood on the ground is inclined to move away from further escalation of the protests.
Topic:: Security, Government, Politics, Revolution, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

94. Egypt: North Sinai Crisis Deepens

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The overthrow of Mohamed Morsi and the continuing deterioration of the relationship between Hamas and the current Egyptian government has caused significant convergence of Egypt and Israel’s attitudes towards Hamas and the situation in the Gaza Strip, with the common goal of weakening Hamas and containing its influence in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the Sisi regime’s recent decision to establish a buffer zone on the border has nothing to do with the fight against terrorism in Sinai and dealing with armed groups there; rather, it has everything to do with Israeli-US demands for such a zone. It is important to note that this decision is not expected to impact, positively or negatively, the ongoing war between the Egyptian government and armed groups in northern Sinai. In the same context, the opposition group Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (ABM) has recently started to follow the Islamic State (IS) group’s methods with their opponents in incubator areas, including killing those accused of being collaborators with Egyptian and Israeli security services and then explicitly claiming responsibility for the killings. Externally, in the context of the collapse of central control in Libya after the revolution, and the escalating hostility between Libyan rebels and the Egyptian regime, it is also no longer likely that armed groups in northern Sinai and Libyan armed groups will coordinate, even with their shared ideological backgrounds. This paper addresses two key questions: To what extent can the Egyptian government’s approach succeed in containing the escalating wave of armed violence in this highly turbulent region? Is the decision to establish the buffer zone aimed at aiding counter-terrorism efforts in North Sinai, or is it designed to achieve other goals?
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Violence, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS