Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Israel

201. Rebuilding Gaza: Putting people before politics

Author:: Sara Hamood
Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In June 2009 the blockade on the Gaza Strip enters its third year. The intense closure policy, coupled with the government of Israel's recent military operation 'Cast Lead', has had a devastating impact on the lives and livelihoods of one and a half million Gazans, pushing them further into poverty and aid dependency. Parties to the conflict and the international community have, to varying degrees, prioritised their own political objectives over people's rights and needs, leaving Gazans sitting on the ruins of their homes. By attempting to isolate Hamas, the government of Israel and key international donor governments and institutions have in fact isolated the people of Gaza, thereby reducing chances of securing a peaceful, just and durable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

202. The New ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights: Toothless Tiger or Tentative First Step?

Author:: Michelle Staggs Kelsall
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In late 2008 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) committed to creating a human rights body, which emerged as the Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (ICHR), the terms of reference (TOR) for which have since been adopted. Although the TOR for the commission currently outlines a primarily advisory rather than an enforcement role, the very existence of the ICHR has the potential to act as a trigger to further discussion on human rights issues in member states and open avenues for further action. To take maximum advantage of this opportunity to further the human rights agenda in ASEAN member states, it is essential that critical early decisions are made carefully so as to leave the most latitude for future action. While some observers are concerned that the ICHR lacks teeth, the fact that all ten ASEAN governments have agreed to implement a human rights commission is remarkable and is an essential first step toward ASEAN's stated goal of respecting and protecting human rights.
Topic:: Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Israel, Asia, and Southeast Asia

203. Some Recommendations Following the Gaza Operation and the Israeli Elections

Author:: Bora Bayraktar and Can Yirik
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The crisis that started with Hamas winning the Palestinian Authority (PA) elections in January of 2006 seems to have entered a new stage with the start of 2009. Israel, which provides the occupied PA with the bulk of its economic resources, the US and the EU classifying Hamas as a terrorist organization and the resulting 3 year long economic siege and blockade, and the Israeli operation that started on the 27th of December and lasted for 22 days have all made the humanitarian situation in this region unbearable.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Israel

204. Iran, the Bomb and Turkey

Author:: Yalım Eralp
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The question of Iran “ going nuclear” is of global concern. Iran has up to now used devious methods to violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has indeed misled the world community. The Obama Administration is concerned about these developments as much as the previous Bush Administration was. However, President Obama's approach to nuclear weapons in general and talks with Iran have been different both in essence and form. Another matter of concern has been the attitude of Israel and the manner in which the US has tried to handle the Israeli dossier towards Iran. The October 1st negotiations with Iran have been considered constructive by the West. These negotiations will take time and probably prove to be difficult. Turkey's attitude towards a “nuclear” Iran seems to be ambivalent in recent times, whereby while Turkey does not want a nuclear Iran, it seems to be pointing a finger to nuclear Israel.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, and Israel

205. A Renewable Energy Peace Park in the Golan as a Framework to an Israeli-Syrian Agreement

Author:: Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The widely discussed Syrian-Israeli peace park concept is rooted in the assumption that Syrian and Israeli "good will" for cooperation is sufficient to mobilize a long-lasting, firm peace treaty between the two countries. The current discussions on a layout for a peace park provide a description of the mechanisms that will control and maintain the park, but fail to provide the insights for how to keep these mechanisms functioning in one, five or ten years into the future. This paper argues that given the lack of stabilizing factors in an Israeli-Syrian partnership, even if negotiations succeed and an agreement is signed, the probability of failure during implementation is high.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

206. Beyond Settlements: U.S. Policy Options Going Forward

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Having raised Arab expectations months ago with the idea of a settlement freeze, the Obama administration now has the unpleasant task of coaxing Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas to tacitly accept an agreement on settlements that offers less than expected -- if more than was offered in the past. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the United States will succeed at arranging a trilateral summit involving President Barack Obama, President Abbas, and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the UN next week that would culminate in the announcement of a formal relaunching of peace negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

207. Rejectionists Readying to Counter U.S. Peace Push

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With rumors in the air of a U.S.-brokered, mid-September meeting between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, various regional actors are busy positioning themselves for the coming round of diplomacy. Analysis of these dynamics provides some useful perspective on the road ahead, beyond the usual focus on the minutiae of settlement construction, prisoner exchanges, or other immediate concerns.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

208. Fatah Congress: Will New Resolutions Mean a New Direction?

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At its recently concluded General Congress, Fatah established a new political program that will affect both its terms of reengagement with Israel and its relations with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Fatah's new constraints on negotiations with Israel, however, may harm Mahmoud Abbas -- PA president and the party's top leader -- who needs to respond positively to international peace initiatives that may conflict with the organization's new rules of engagement. Abbas might ignore these congressional decisions, believing its program is intended only for internal consumption to fend off the accusations of the party's hardline members. Fatah's renewed efforts to reunite the West Bank and Gaza could lead to an escalation with Hamas, since many observers doubt unity can be achieved peacefully.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Terrorism, Power Politics, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

209. Reality Contradicts New Hamas Spin

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Stephanie Papa
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent interviews, Hamas leader Khaled Mashal has offered to cooperate with U.S. efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, indicated a willingness to implement an immediate and reciprocal ceasefire with Israel, and stated that the militant group would accept and respect a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But the conciliatory tone of this hardline Hamas leader, who has personally been tied to acts of terrorism and is himself a U.S.-designated terrorist, is belied by the group's continued violent actions and radicalization on the ground, as well as the rise to prominence of violent extremist leaders within the group's local Shura (consultative) councils. Hamas's activities of late appear to be diametrically opposed to the compliance of Mashal's statements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

210. No Expansion vs. Freeze: Obama's Dilemma over Israeli Settlements

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Two and a half months after U.S. president Barack Obama and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu first hit an impasse over the settlement issue, the dispute has not only continued, it has also grown more complex. Saudi Arabia has now rebuffed requests from Special Envoy for Middle East Peace George Mitchell to pursue confidence-building measures toward Israel, even in return for a moratorium on settlement construction. Although the Obama administration has not yet leveled any public criticism against Riyadh, it continues to be critical of Israeli settlements. To move diplomacy forward, Washington will have to engage in some creative policymaking.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

211. Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Lebanon's recently announced national unity government has eased fears that the country would once again be mired in a dangerous political stalemate. Yet, despite the recent breakthrough, Lebanon's unstable equilibrium -- marked by both internal and regional tensions -- could still devolve into serious violence. Deep seated sectarian animosities persist, raising the prospects for political instability and civil strife if unaddressed. Regionally, mounting tensions with Israel raise the worrisome possibility of isolated border incidents spiraling into more serious conflict. Taken together these two underlying challenges to stability -- internal civil unrest and regional conflict with Israel -- could undermine Lebanon's fragile peace. This paper will examine internal challenges to Lebanon's stability.
Topic:: Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

212. Why Science Alone Won't Solve the Climate Crisis: Managing Climate Risks in the Pacific

Author:: Melissa L. Finucane
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Pacific Islands are extraordinarily vulnerable to the effects of climate change. And although policymakers are turning to science to answer questions of how communities should deal with climate challenges, scientific knowledge is only one element of an effective risk-management process. The people of the Pacific Islands hold diverse beliefs about climate change and these beliefs inform their decisions. In addition, a dynamic social context influences the extent to which people are able to respond meaningfully to climate impacts. To solve the climate crisis, policymakers need to set a risk-management agenda that integrates sound science with an understanding of how that science is interpreted and translated into action in society. They will need to work not only with scientists, but also with cultural leaders, theologians, philosophers, and community groups. Lessons learned in the Pacific region, along with broader knowledge about factors affecting human decisionmaking, illustrate how policymakers can bridge the gap between climate science and society to facilitate adaptation.
Topic:: Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

213. The Defense Monitor - Volume XXXVIII, No. 1 - January/February 2009

Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: For the second year in a row, an unexpected major "national security" crisis threatened to reignite - again - into the latest round of armed conflict since the two countries were created 61 years ago. Headlines throughout most of December speculated about the added damage war would bring to an already financially weakened international system. Then, on Dec. 26, 2008, Israeli warplanes struck the Hamas-run Gaza Strip in what Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak would label an attempt to destroy Hamas once and for all.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Israel

214. Japanese governance reform: Daybreak in the land of the rising sun?

Author:: Alexandru Luta
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The recent elections for the lower house of Japan's Diet herald the end of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) domination of Japanese politics. The winner, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), aims to thoroughly reform the way the country is governed. The strategic goals of the DPJ's reform agenda are to shift the locus of policy-drafting away from civil servants to the legislature, and to bring the latter firmly under the control of the Prime Minister's Cabinet. In order to be able to work towards its strategic goal, the DPJ needs tactical victories to maintain its popularity with the electorate. The climate negotiations' high profile makes domestic climate policy a natural area for the DPJ to differentiate its political brand from that of the LDP. Just as with governance reform, the DPJ has time and again asserted its commitment to pro-active climate goals both in pre-and post-electoral speeches, at home and abroad. Therefore it is very likely to continue pouring political capital into this policy area. The division between major ministries about how to formulate Japanese climate policy presents a willing Cabinet with structural advantages to assert its leadership successfully. The wider reforms currently being implemented further strengthen the new government's position. There are some factors that might limit the ability of Japan's new leadership to fight climate change. These include how their relationship with domestic media outlets shapes their approval ratings, how the positions of other stakeholders develop, how other electoral promises conflict with the new climate platform, and how the climate negotiations progress on the international level.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, and Asia

215. A G-20 caucus for East Asia

Author:: Stephen Grenville and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: In September 2009 the Pittsburgh Summit designated the G-20 as the world's premier forum for international cooperation. The G-20's arrival at the apex of the international economic architecture gives East Asia a much greater presence at the top table of the world economy: six regional economies, including Australia, are members of the G-20, in contrast to the G7, which only had room for Japan. This increase in representation creates important new opportunities for the region. But making use of these opportunities requires significant increases in policy-making resources. Unfortunately, in many Asian economies, such resources are in short supply relative to the wide variety of pressing problems the region currently faces.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia/Pacific

216. The Philippines: Running in Place in Mindanao

Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Six months after the collapse of autonomy negotiations between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippines government, low-intensity conflict continues but moves are under way to resurrect talks. It is not clear whether negotiations will resume and if they do, with what agenda. Certainly no settlement is likely during the remaining tenure of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo; the two sides are too far apart, the potential spoilers too numerous, and the political will too weak. The best that can be hoped for is progress around the edges.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Israel, Asia, Philippines, and Mindanao

217. The Palestinian Refugee Issue: A Palestinian Perspective

Author:: Abbas Shiblak
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The quest of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes is not only a legal and moral right but has become a major part of Palestinian identity and symbolizes Palestinian historical narratives. It has been an effective instrument of mobilization that became the political priority of various resistance groups which later formed the Palestine Liberation Organization. The PLO embarked on a line of negotiation which sought to reconcile rightist and realist approaches. They sought acknowledgment by Israel of its responsibility for the refugee issue and acceptance in principle of their right of return while showing flexibility and readiness to discuss various formulations of return. At the core of the inter-Palestinian debate is the dynamic between the two objectives of achieving statehood and the resolution of the refugee issue. State-building came to be seen not only as a means of reconstructing Palestinian identity but also as a catalyst to resolution of the refugee issue. A peace agreement should widen the options for the refugees and address all aspects of the refugee issue including the rights of repatriation to Israel, return to a Palestinian state, compensation, and equality and full citizenship rights in countries where refugees choose to remain. A comprehensive peace agreement must include the regional aspects of the refugee issue and all regional actors. There is an urgent need to review the current format of negotiations and bring about more balanced and effective international political engagement in the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Poverty, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

218. Preventive Military Action: The Worst Way to Deal With Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:: Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: Although the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons is a major concern for Israel and the United States, leaving the "military option" on the table is counterproductive. Preventive military action by either country against Iran's nuclear facilities would only delay, rather than halt, Tehran's nuclear program, and it would cause Iran to retaliate against the United States as well as Israel. The aftermath of such an attack would be disastrous for the U.S. position in the region-particularly for relations with Israel and with Iraq-and its position in the wider world.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

219. Sunset for the Two-State Solution?

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Bush administration is using its final months to try to gain agreement on a twostate solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict—but much of the framework supporting a two-state solution has collapsed. In January 2009, a new American administration will face a series of bleak choices. It may still be possible to revive a two-state solution, but it will require the emergence of a more viable and unified Palestinian leadership. Rather than pretending that an agreement is possible now, it would be far better if U.S. efforts in the remainder of this calendar year began to address the underlying problems.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Israel

220. The Past as Prelude? Negotiating the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:: Rex Brynen
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The question of Palestinian refugees has long been one of the most difficult issues in dispute in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. With the onset of renewed peace talks following the Annapolis summit of November 2007, it is once again an issue that the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators must address. The two sides are in a worse position to resolve the issue than they were during the last rounds of permanent status negotiations in 2000–01. The political weakness of the Israeli and Palestinian governments is compounded by heightened mistrust between the two societies, as well as by a hardening of Israeli public attitudes against even the symbolic return of any refugees to Israeli territory. There is now a substantial accumulated body of work on the Palestinian refugee issue to guide and inform negotiators and policy-makers. This includes past official negotiations among the key parties, wider discussions among regional states and the international donor community, unofficial and Track II initiatives and a considerable body of technical analysis.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

221. Israeli Perspectives on the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:: Orit Gal
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: At the beginning of the Oslo Process the greatest challenge was the question of Palestinian statehood; negotiation of the refugee issue was postponed until the later stages. Over a decade later, Palestinian statehood is generally accepted as a given, and the refugee issue has taken centre stage. The Israeli perspective, from a leadership standpoint, is seemingly characterized by a sense of being overwhelmed, owing to the complexity of elements making up the refugee issue, the multiplicity of actors involved, and a heightened sense of uncertainty as to the consequences of any negotiated settlement. More strategic work is needed at the political and policy-making level to determine the resolution level required for the agreement itself. Much of the detail involved will have to be developed outside the main negotiation framework. More research and strategy development work is needed concerning the Israeli public domain, to assess existing attitudes and possible avenues for widening the public discourse. To this end, the Israeli media should also be encouraged to present the different debates and elements of the issue. There is a need for an international task force of leading experts working alongside the negotiation process and translating both sides' strategic options into operational frameworks. Such support could ease the load on the actual negotiating parties, thereby facilitating the decision-making process.
Topic:: International Cooperation and Migration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

222. The Challenges of Israeli Military Action in Gaza

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the first in a two-part series examining the situation in Gaza as the December 19 expiration date of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire approaches. The first focused on the challenges the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would face in undertaking any large-scale action; the second looks at the IDF's choices, and their implications, regarding the scope and duration of a potential incursion.
Topic:: Imperialism, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

223. Security First: U.S. Priorities in Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Walter B. Slocombe, Montgomery C. Meigs, and J. D. Crouch II
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 10, 2008, Walter B. Slocombe, J. D. Crouch II, and Gen. Montgomery C. Meigs (Ret.) addressed a Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to launch a new strategic report entitled Security First: U.S. Priorities in Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. Mr. Slocombe, currently an attorney at Caplin Drysdale, served as undersecretary of defense in the Clinton administration and worked in the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Mr. Crouch, former deputy national security advisor and assistant secretary of defense, is currently a senior scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. General Meigs served in the U.S. army for thirty-five years, including two tours in Bosnia commanding NATO forces; he is now a visiting professor at Georgetown University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Peace Studies and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

224. Israel's Policy Options in the Gaza Conflict

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The legacy of Israel's inconclusive thirty-four-day war with Hizballah in 2006 hovers over Israel's current military operations in Gaza. Israel believes its deterrence was lost in that war, and Israel's current campaign against Hamas should be seen as an effort to regain that deterrence. Israeli military officials believe that if Hamas feared Israel, they would not be firing rockets at Israeli towns but would have instead renewed the six-month ceasefire.
Topic:: Islam, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

225. Palestine Divided - Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The current reconciliation process between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) is a continuation of their struggle through other means. The goals pursued by the two movements are domestic and regional legitimacy, together with consolidation of territorial control – not national unity. This is understandable. At this stage, both parties see greater cost than reward in a compromise that would entail loss of Gaza for one and an uncomfortable partnership coupled with an Islamist foothold in the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) for the other. Regionally, Syria – still under pressure from Washington and others in the Arab world – has little incentive today to press Hamas to compromise, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia are tilting more pointedly toward Fatah. It will take significant shifts in domestic, regional and international attitudes for this to change. Palestine's political-territorial division, now over a year old, is set to endure.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

226. Syrian–Israeli Peace: A Possible Key to Regional Change

Author:: Paul Salem
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Peace between Syria and Israel is a real possibility—it was almost achieved twice before in 1995–1996 and 1999–2000. Both sides have indicated their interest through indirect talks hosted by Turkey. Syrian–Israeli peace would have positive effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iraq, and other tracks of the Arab–Israeli peace process. The downsides of U.S. mediation are limited. The two sides cannot and will not reach a peace treaty without U.S. leadership. The Obama administration should develop an integrated policy including pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make this possibility a reality. The pressure would be to keep Syria out of Lebanon and Iraq. This would mean continued support for UN Security Council resolutions on Lebanon and the International Hariri Tribunal, as well as continued U.S. sanctions as long as Syria violates its neighbors' sovereignty. The incentives should include the return of the Golan Heights, ending Syria's political isolation, U.S. help in securing World Trade Organization accession, and encouraging foreign direct investment.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

227. Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible?

Author:: Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Although Tehran and Washington appear hopelessly divided, issues of broad mutual concern reveal important overlapping interests. The United States can more effectively support democracy and human rights in Iran with policies that facilitate, rather than impede, Iran's modernization and reintegration in the global economy. The next U.S. president should not immediately seek comprehensive engagement with Tehran, as this might enhance Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chances of reelection in Iran's June 2009 presidential elections. The United States must deal with those who hold power in Tehran, namely Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Given the widespread mutual mistrust between Washington and Tehran, confidence should be built with negotiations on areas of common interest, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, rather than those of little or no common interest, such as the Palestinian–Israeli conflict or the nuclear issue. When it comes to U.S.–Iranian interaction, the record shows that “secret” or “private” discussions out of public earshot have a greater success rate. Building confidence in the public realm will be difficult, as politicians on both sides will likely feel the need to use harsh rhetoric to maintain appearances. It is imperative that Washington maintain a multilateral approach toward Iran, especially regarding the nuclear issue. Tehran is highly adept at exploiting rifts in the international community and diplomatic efforts to check Iran's nuclear ambitions will unravel if key countries approach Iran with divergent redlines. Powerful spoilers—both within Iran and among Iran's Arab allies—have entrenched economic and political interests in preventing U.S.–Iranian reconciliation.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, and Palestine

228. Multitrack Integration in East Asian Trade: Noodle Bowl or Matrix?

Author:: Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: East Asian trade agreements are often described as a complicated "noodle bowl," which shows links in the region as a snarled, overlapping and intertwined mass. But this is a misleading representation--Asia's regional agreements may in fact be creating an order of a different sort, building the foundations for a stronger regional trading system. Asian trade arrangements can be more constructively seen in terms of a trade agreements matrix, in which multiple negotiations produce an orderly progression of agreements to liberalize all potential bilateral relationships and move the region toward a coherent system of freer trade. The various approaches to deeper economic integration--regional arrangements, trans-Pacific agreements, and global engagement--are complementary paths that should eventually lead to an open global trading system. East Asia is of growing importance in the global marketplace, and adopting an aggressive multitrack strategy--as the region appears to be doing--may be the fastest route toward a new global framework.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

229. The Gaza Strip: A Humanitarian Implosion

Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The situation for 1.5 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip is worse now than it has ever been since the start of the Israeli military occupation in 1967. The current situation in Gaza is man-made, completely avoidable and, with the necessary political will, can also be reversed.
Topic:: Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

230. PolicyWatch #1400: Amman Warms to Hamas

Author:: David Schenker and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, Jordan's minister of information publicly confirmed that senior Jordanian officials have been meeting with Hamas in an effort to "solve pending security issues." These talks represent a significant shift for Amman, since relations between Jordan and the Palestinian group had been frozen for two years, following the arrest of three Hamas members in the kingdom on terrorism and weapons charges. Although the decision to renew contacts with Hamas suggests that Amman remains concerned with Hamas-related activities in the kingdom, the timing also highlights domestic and regional pressures on King Abdullah and the Jordanian government.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Jordan

231. PolicyWatch #1401: Reconsidering Hamas: A View from Amman

Author:: Hassan Barari
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Almost a decade after expelling Hamas from its territory, Jordan is in the process of reassessing its ties with the militant Palestinian group, an organization dedicated to undermining the two-state solution. Although Jordanian officials repeatedly have stated their aversion to dealing with non-state actors, recent discussions with Hamas suggest that Jordanian policy is driven more by pragmatism than principle. Current realities, including the growing strength of Hamas and the waning prospects of peace between Israel and the Palestinians, are propelling Amman to engage in tactical shifts in its foreign policy to protect its national interests. How this will affect the peace process and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas remains to be seen.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

232. PolicyWatch #1403: Livni's Outlook: Political and Policy Options in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's narrow Kadima party victory over Shaul Mofaz last week, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert resigned on Sunday night. The following day, Israeli president Shimon Peres asked Livni to form a new governing coalition, but if she is unable to do so in the next six weeks, Israel will head for new elections. Regardless of the coalition's makeup, prospects remain bleak in the short term for a breakthrough on either the Palestinian or Syrian track.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

233. PolicyWatch #1413: UN Resolution 1701: A View from Israel

Author:: Oded Eran
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the first in a three-part series examining the situation in Lebanon two years after the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This series coincides with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Marine barracks bombing by Hizballah in Lebanon on October 23, 1983, an attack that continues to inform U.S. policymaking in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.
Topic:: Terrorism, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

234. PolicyWatch #1414: UN Resolution 1701: A View from Lebanon

Author:: Nicholas Blanford
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the second in a three-part series examining the situation in Lebanon two years after the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This series coincides with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon on October 23, 1983, an attack that continues to inform U.S. policymaking in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

235. PolicyWatch #1415: UN Resolution 1701: A View from the United States

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series examining the situation in Lebanon two years after the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This series coincides with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon on October 23, 1983, an attack that continues to inform U.S. policymaking in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.
Topic:: Terrorism and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

236. PolicyWatch #1420: Why the Next U.S. President Will Be a Wartime Leader

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The next U.S. president will be a wartime president. Developments in the Middle East almost ensure that either John McCain or Barack Obama will have to manage one or more wars involving the United States or its allies in the region.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

237. PolicyWatch #1428: Is Hamas Committed to the Ceasefire?

Author:: Yoram Cohen
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, Israeli forces entered Gaza, destroyed an underground border tunnel, and battled Hamas fighters, leaving several militants dead. In response, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired around eighty rockets into southern Israel, including the Israeli city of Ashkelon. Despite this breach of the tahdiya, or ceasefire, both Hamas and Israeli leaders have stressed their desire to deescalate the situation. But considering Hamas's history of violence against Israel, the organization's commitment to the tahdiya is open to serious question.
Topic:: Security and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

238. PolicyWatch #1429: Livni vs. Netanyahu: From One Election to the Next

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 10, Israelis head to their first national election in nearly three years. With the exception of the 1977 election, this will be the only Israeli campaign in which no incumbent has run for the office of prime minister. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni leads the Kadima party, which is neck and neck with Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party; each is expected to garner approximately 30 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament. Since their views on the peace process differ, the election's outcome will directly affect U.S. regional policy and the future of the Annapolis process.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

239. PolicyWatch #1430: Military Consequences of a Gaza Ceasefire Collapse

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Clashes, rocket fire, and threats of escalation challenge Gaza's five-month-old ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. In the past two weeks, Israeli forces have reportedly killed 17 Palestinian fighters, while militant groups in Gaza have fired over 140 rockets into Israel. Despite the ceasefire's benefits -- for Israel, the end of cyclical clashes, rocket attacks, and civilian casualties, and for Hamas, a reprieve from Israel's intense military and economic pressure -- there is no guarantee it will hold. As such, it is worth considering how the ceasefire might end, what renewed conflict might look like, and what this means for Israel's long-term confrontation with Hamas.
Topic:: Economics and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

240. PolicyWatch #1432: Syria's Reactor: Can the IAEA Act Effectively?

Author:: David Schenker and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: High on the agenda of the November 27-28 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors (BOG) will be the November 19 report from Director General Mohammed ElBaradei about Syria. How the IAEA responds to the Syrian challenge may determine whether future urgent proliferation concerns are taken to the IAEA and UN Security Council or resolved through military force, such as Israel's airstrike last year on Syria's Dayr al-Zor site.
Topic:: Security, International Organization, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

241. PolicyWatch #1434: Violence by Extremists in the Jewish Settler Movement: A Rising Challenge

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Becca Wasser
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Thirteen years after the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Israeli security officials are expressing heightened concern that a new wave of violent extremism among fringe elements in the Jewish settler movement threatens not only Palestinian civilians, but also Israeli national security and the future of any potential peace diplomacy.
Topic:: Political Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

242. PolicyWatch #1393: Olmert's Announcement Fuels Uncertainty in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced yesterday that he will not compete in his party's September primary and will resign as premier once a new leader is elected. The move ends Olmert's two and half years as Israeli premier, a post he took up after Ariel Sharon's debilitating stroke in January 2006. High-profile allegations of financial wrongdoing have cast a shadow over his administration in past months, and until recently, he pledged he would only leave if there were a formal indictment. His announcement comes at a critical time for Israel and will certainly lead to sense of uncertainty about the future.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

243. PolicyWatch #1382: Reconciling with Hamas? Abbas's Hedge Against a Failed Peace Process

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 4, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas marked the anniversary of the 1967 War by making a surprise call for dialogue with Hamas. In response to multiple challenges to his authority -- impasse on the peace process, ongoing dissent within Fatah, and regional pressure to resolve the internal Palestinian conflict -- Abbas has abandoned his demands for Hamas to return Gaza to its pre-June 2007 condition and apologize for its violent coup. However, a gulf remains between Hamas and Fatah, and it is unlikely that renewed dialogue can bridge the gap. Abbas's move may be an effort to pressure the United States to become more involved, and to maintain a fallback position if peace is not achieved. Accordingly, his call to Hamas should be seen as tactical, rather than a strategic, turning point toward Palestinian reconciliation.
Topic:: Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

244. PolicyWatch #1373: Bush's Last Middle East Trip Could Be More Than Just Farewells

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush returns to the Middle East this week for the second time in 2008. Initially planned to mark Israel's sixtieth anniversary, his itinerary has expanded to include meetings with top officials from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. Except for a trip to Riyadh, these meetings will be held at a World Economic Forum conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt. This lineup prompted National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to say the trip has "both symbolism and substance" and, considering the urgency of the issues, something of substance may actually emerge.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan

245. PolicyWatch #1372: Showdown between Hizballah and Beirut

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, the democratically elected, pro-Western Lebanese government took the bold and unprecedented decision to confront Hizballah. Since its election in 2005, the government had avoided direct conflict with the well-armed Shiite militant political party, but several of the organization's activities -- including apparent preparations for yet another war with Israel -- led the government to provoke a showdown. In response to a May 8 cabinet statement that focused on Hizballah's "attack on the sovereignty of the state," the Shiite organization took to the streets. In the ensuing violence -- the most intense since Lebanon's civil war -- Hizballah began occupying parts of Beirut, leaving the future of Lebanon in doubt.
Topic:: Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Beirut

246. PolicyWatch #1370: Special Forum Report: Assessing the Annapolis Process

Author:: Zalman Shoval and Aaron David Miller
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite having been practically stillborn, the Annapolis peace process is not dead and has recently shown artificially induced signs of life. It has been continually retooled in order to maintain a chance of producing something by the end of President Bush's term.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

247. PolicyWatch #1353: Fayad's Reform Plan: Difficulties and Political Implications

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A month after visiting Washington, Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayad continues to face significant political, economic, and security challenges to his reform plan. Fatah, the ruling political party in the West Bank, has resisted many aspects of his agenda and is critical of his cabinet's composition and performance. And although Fayad has spearheaded several important initiatives, his plan is in jeopardy, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) is still far from representing a compelling alternative to Hamas. To make matters worse, the PA has received just $260 million out of the $7.7 billion pledged during the December international donors conference in Paris, leaving the prime minister with month-to-month uncertainty about fulfilling the PA's salary commitments.
Topic:: Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel

248. PolicyWatch #1352: Weapon of Terror: Development and Impact of the Qassam Rocket

Author:: Margaret Weiss
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Qassam rockets -- unsophisticated weapons manufactured in garages and backroom laboratories -- have transformed the strategic equation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These crude rockets give Palestinian terrorist organizations the capability to strike deep into Israeli territory, throwing the security assumptions behind future peace negotiations into doubt.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

249. PolicyWatch #1347: Beyond Rhetoric: Hizballah Threats after the Mughniyeh Assassination

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In response to the February 12 assassination of chief of operations Imad Mughniyeh, Hizballah has ratcheted up its threats, warnings, and saber rattling. In turn, Israel has locked down its foreign missions, put its military on heightened alert, and deployed Patriot missiles near Haifa. And in Washington, the FBI issued a bulletin to its field offices warning of possible attacks on U.S. soil.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

250. PolicyWatch #1338: Winograd Part II: Implications for U.S.-Israeli Relations

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 30, retired Israeli judge Eliyahu Winograd released his much-anticipated second report on government decisionmaking during the summer 2006 Lebanon war. It did not issue a deathblow to Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, but instead described the breakdown in U.S.-Israeli strategic coordination as the principal rationale for Olmert's decision to invade Lebanon just hours before a UN ceasefire was to be implemented. This analysis has considerable ramifications for the future conduct of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

251. PolicyWatch #1337: Egypt Working to Contain Gaza

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Egypt has been scrambling to formulate a new policy toward the Gaza Strip this week after being challenged by Hamas, which opened more than eleven crossings along the Israeli-constructed wall that serves as the Egypt-Gaza border. Up to 750,000 Palestinians have flooded the northeastern corner of the Sinai Peninsula since January 23, spending approximately $130 million in local markets, while tens of thousands of Egyptians took advantage of the lack of immigration, customs, and security controls to cross into Gaza. This massive movement of people caught many by surprise and may have serious ramifications for Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinians.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

252. From Ankara to Annapolis: Turkey and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Selin M. Bölme
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The two-day summit in Annapolis ended on 29 November, 2007. Israel and the Palestine Authority agreed to start a new peace initiative. The Annapolis Summit has a special significance for Turkey. Israeli President Shimon Peres and President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas came together in Ankara before the Annapolis Summit. This important and progressive initiative represents the changing vision of Turkish foreign policy. Turkey had been keen to get involved in the peace process for a long time. Now, Turkey has a chance to be a new actor in the process, one with fresh and new ideas.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

253. The Strategic Benefits of Turkey's Admission Into East Asian Summit

Author:: Kim Beng Phar
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: To fulfill Turkey's mission as a ʺcivilizational connectorʺ between Europe and Asia, Turkey must be a full member of the East Asian Summit. The path towards this goal, among others, requires Turkey to be a Dialogue Partner of ASEAN. Once ASEAN sponsors Turkey's membership in East Asian Summit, Turkey would then be strategically positioned to be a key member with some of the world's most monumental economic and political powers in its midst. Indeed, if Turkey is a member of East Asian Summit, ideally by 2010, Turkey would be in a better position to realize its strategic, civilizational, and historical depth.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and East Asia

254. Renewing the Pacific Partnership

Author:: Charles Morrison and Peter Petri
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The rise of China, India, and other Asian nations is creating a new “core” of the world economy centered on the Pacific. It is essential for the United States to remain vigorously engaged in this region, yet the climate of our relations with Asian partners is cooling. The United States and Asia have yet to find a way to cooperate effectively on any significant global issue. This dilemma, we argue, requires urgent attention on both sides of the Pacific, and specifically a U.S. strategy that features innovative civil diplomacy alongside official initiatives.
Topic:: International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

255. Breaking the impasse: ending the humanitarian stranglehold on Palestine

Author:: Oxfam Novib
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The upcoming Israeli-Palestinian meeting in Annapolis, Maryland provides an opportunity to address the humanitarian crisis, which is an essential step for successful negotiations leading to the end of the occupation of Palestine, and for delivering a just settlement and lasting peace for Palestinians and Israelis alike.
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

256. As Palestinians Come Together, What Is Next for U.S.-Israeli Cooperation?

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Next week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will return to the Middle East, where she plans to meet Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas for what has become a monthly trilateral session. The question is whether Rice still believes both parties can actually agree on a so-called "political horizon" -- namely, the definition of actions to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The odds have slimmed to nearly nil since the idea was first discussed by Rice and Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni at a December 2006 meeting. That was prior to the Mecca accord, where the concept of a Palestinian national unity government was conceived. Meanwhile, both Fatah and Hamas have announced that they are ready to form such a government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

257. Next Steps in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli-Palestinian political landscape has been rather bleak over the last several years. Between 2000-2004, the second intifada brought almost unremitting terror and violence. Despite Israel's pullout from Gaza in the summer of 2005, the parliamentary victory of the rejectionist Hamas party in January 2006 contributed to this downward trend.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

258. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca

259. PolicyWatch #1322: Special Forum Report: A Middle East Study Tour: Perspectives from Turkey

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The two main topics in Turkey today are the booming economy and worries about the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The political stability provided by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which came to power in 2002, has resulted in a notably strong economic growth. As a result, Turkey now benefits from an improved European-style infrastructure, a dynamic private sector, and a vibrant middle class. The country's major businesses, most of which are secular, have benefited significantly from the economic growth and are generally supportive of the AKP, although some seem to disagree with the party's social and cultural agenda.
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

260. PolicyWatch #1312: Bush at Annapolis: Hints about the Final Thirteen Months

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Annapolis summit featured an impressive display of international support for renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Beyond the headlines and photo-ops, the most significant aspect of the event was that President Bush offered little sign he plans to devote the final months of his administration to a high-stakes personal quest for a permanent peace treaty between the two parties.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

261. PolicyWatch #1309: Confidence Building after Annapolis

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, the United States has reduced expectations that the upcoming Annapolis peace conference will culminate in a diplomatic breakthrough for all parties after almost seven years of terror, violence, and non-engagement. Instead, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice seeks to revive the moribund 2003 Roadmap, and introduce a new dual-track approach. She wants the parties to implement the first phase of the Roadmap, which deals with modifying the behavior of both sides, while simultaneously -- rather than sequentially according to the 2003 plan -- negotiate the third phase, which deals with the final status issues such as Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and security.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

262. PolicyWatch #1308: Six Critical Questions for Annapolis and Beyond

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The purpose of the Annapolis summit now is to launch negotiations within the framework of the Roadmap to Middle East peace, the dormant and often maligned plan that provides neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians a setting to establish a "political horizon" for a future Palestinian state. With lowering expectations over the past few weeks, the event itself is -- almost by definition -- doomed to succeed. Only a few days remain before the conference begins, but the following critical questions remain unanswered.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

263. PolicyWatch #1307: Tony Blair Takes on West Bank Aid

Author:: James Lindsay
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former British prime minister Tony Blair, now the Quartet's special Middle East envoy, has announced that he will soon determine the first set of projects meant to improve economic conditions in the West Bank, specifically mentioning projects around the town of Jericho. Although Blair will no doubt ignore calls from Hamas supporters to bolster their Gaza regime, it remains to be seen which projects in the West Bank he believes are worthy of funding. Regardless of what he decides, there are a few considerations he should take into account in trying to ensure West Bank stability at a time when new peace initiatives are unfolding.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Humanitarian Aid, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

264. PolicyWatch #1302: Annapolis and a Dual-Track Peace Process

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Public remarks by top U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian officials this week indicate that the character of the upcoming Middle East peace conference in Annapolis has changed. First, instead of the expected pre-conference declaration of final status -- principles and conceptual tradeoffs on core issues such as Jerusalem, borders, security, and refugees -- Annapolis will only mark the beginning of negotiations on these issues. Second, the November conference will attempt to revive the moribund Quartet Roadmap laid out by the United States, UN, European Union, and Russia in 2003, with particular focus on the plan's first phase: cooperative on-the-ground action by both sides to improve Palestinian security performance and curb Israeli settlement activity, among other issues. Finally, the United States will seek to use Annapolis as a means of galvanizing international support for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, and Israel

265. PolicyWatch #1290: Losing Traction against Syria

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 6 Israeli bombing of a presumed North Korean-supplied nuclear weapons facility in Syria highlights the ongoing policy challenge posed by Damascus. More than three years after President Bush signed the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SAA), Syria continues to support terrorism, destabilize Iraq, meddle in Lebanon, and develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile systems. This week's headlines tell the story: on September 19, yet another anti-Syrian parliamentarian was assassinated in Lebanon; the same day, Jane's Defence Weekly reported that a July 2007 chemical weapons accident in Syria -- involving mustard gas and VX and sarin nerve agents -- killed fifteen Syrian officers and dozens of Iranian engineers.
Topic:: Diplomacy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Lebanon, and Syria

266. PolicyWatch #1289: Rice's Obstacles on the Road to an Israeli-Palestinian Breakthrough

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently visited Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to get personal briefings from each leader regarding their sensitive discussions on peace. Such briefings are designed so that Rice can identify the existing gaps between the parties and fashion U.S. strategy in advance of a planned November meeting in Washington. These gaps will likely determine the scope of her potential shuttle diplomacy during her next visit to the region in the coming weeks. They will also become increasingly clear as Israeli and Palestinian delegations meet and begin drafting a potential declaration of principles (DOP) within ten days time, as a senior Israeli official has reported.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

267. PolicyWatch #1288: Syria's Strategic Weapons Programs

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 6 Israeli airstrike in northeastern Syria has produced intense speculation. According to the New York Times, Israeli intelligence believes the target was part of a clandestine Syrian nuclear weapons program aided by North Korea. This raises broader questions about the status of Syria's strategic weapons programs, which would likely play a crucial role in any future confrontation with Israel.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: New York, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, and Syria

268. PolicyWatch #1285: Hamas's Authoritarian Regime in Gaza

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During the first eighteen months following its January 2006 electoral victories, Hamas took an incremental approach toward official integration into the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Since its takeover of Gaza in June 2007, however, Hamas has changed tactics and imposed an independent, authoritarian regime. After an initial period of calm, there are increasing signs of public discontent over the faction's nascent rule. Yet, Hamas has a near monopoly on the means of force -- its disciplined and well-organized security forces have managed to control Fatah-led disturbances. The group will continue to consolidate its rule in Gaza unless PA officials in the West Bank initiate a clear strategy aimed at the long-term restoration of authority there. Without such an effort, Hamas will further undermine the legitimacy of President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayad, limiting their mandate to negotiate on behalf of all Palestinians at the planned international peace conference this fall.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

269. PolicyWatch #1278: Hamas's Military Capabilities after the Gaza Takeover

Author:: Nick Francona
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hamas's June 2007 victory over Fatah was more than a political achievement -- it was a military bonanza. From its capture of Fatah's security headquarters, Hamas acquired stockpiles of American-made small arms and ammunition as well as a wide range of military equipment and vehicles originally transferred to bolster Fatah forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas. In addition, increased smuggling activity since June has reportedly provided Hamas with Russian-made weapons, including antitank and antiaircraft missiles. Israel's Shin Bet estimates that forty tons of explosives entered Gaza in the two months following Hamas's takeover, along with 150 rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers in August alone. In all, according to Israeli public security minister Avi Dichter, it would have taken Hamas approximately one year to obtain the amount of weaponry seized during the Gaza takeover through smuggling or other means.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

270. PolicyWatch #1276: Hizballah's 'Big Surprise' and the Litani Line

Author:: Andrew Exum
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 14, the anniversary of the end of last summer's Lebanon war, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel of a "big surprise" if it initiated a new conflict in the South. Analysts immediately began speculating over the nature of the promised surprise. But what is most important to note is that Hizballah, a year after its last war, is making serious preparations for the next one.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

271. PolicyWatch #1272: United Nations Peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon: One Year After the War

Author:: Andrew Exum and Gerri Pozez
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 14, 2007, in a speech marking the first anniversary of the ceasefire ending the 2006 summer war, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel of the consequences of further conflict. Addressing a mass rally in Beirut via a video link, he said: "Zionists, if you think of launching a war on Lebanon . . . I promise you a big surprise that could change the fate of war and the fate of the region." Israel is still trying to secure the release of two soldiers kidnapped from its territory by Hizballah in July 2006 -- the incident, along with the killing of three other soldiers, that provoked the war. Meanwhile, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) -- comprising approximately 14,000 soldiers from thirty countries -- endeavors to maintain a tenuous peace.
Topic:: United Nations and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

272. PolicyWatch #1267: Dangerous Partners: Targeting the Iran-Hizballah Alliance

Author:: Jake Lipton and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: July 18 marked the thirteenth anniversary of Argentina's deadliest terrorist attack: a 1994 car bombing carried out by Hizballah at Iran's behest. The attack targeted the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), a Jewish community organization, killing 85 and wounding more than 200. Last week also saw the release of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) warning of an increased likelihood that Hizballah could attack U.S. soil if it, or Iran, feels directly threatened by the United States. Washington continues to take action against the organization, but given Hizballah's impressive fundraising capabilities and Iranian support -- both highlighted recently by Argentinean officials involved in the long-running AMIA case -- the task is challenging.
Topic:: Intelligence and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Argentina, and South America

273. PolicyWatch #1261: Reading Between the Lines of President Bush's July 16 Address

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush's July 16 address on the Middle East peace process was a mix of the old and the new, offering neither an unequivocal reaffirmation of past approaches nor a thoroughly novel direction for Arab-Israeli diplomacy in the wake of Hamas's coup in Gaza.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

274. PolicyWatch #1247: Special Forum Report: Hamas and the Second Six Day War: Implications, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hamas's success caps a forty-year evolution of the Palestinian role in the larger Arab-Israeli conflict. In 1967, Israel's military victories rocked the armies and regimes of neighboring Arab states, energizing the previously marginal Palestinian nationalist movement and, especially, Fatah. That term, "Fatah," is a reverse Arabic acronym for "Harakat Tahrir al-Watani al-Filastini," the Palestinian National Liberation Movement.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

275. PolicyWatch #1243: Special Forum Report: When Diplomacy Failed: Lessons Learned from June 1967

Author:: Dennis Ross, Samuel Lewis, and Wendy Chamberlin
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The historical record has made it increasingly clear that in the May-June 1967 Middle East conflict, public assurances from world powers -- or the lack thereof -- greatly influenced the decisionmaking of regional leaders. Specifically, Soviet encouragement of Egypt -- both public and private -- played a large role in influencing Egyptian chief of staff and military commander Abdul Hakim Amer as he brought President Gamal Abdul Nasser to the brink of war with Israel. At the same time, however, the U.S. government under President Lyndon Johnson extended no parallel public assurances to Israel. This absence of commitment from a major foreign power or the UN in a moment of crisis affected the mindset of Israel's policymakers whenever they faced national security dilemmas thereafter, leading them to take many unilateral actions in subsequent years.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

276. Poverty in Palestine: the human cost of the financial boycott

Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In April 2006, key donors including the US A, EU, and Canada suspended international aid to the Palestinian Authority government (PA), following the overwhelming victory of Hamas in parliamentary elections. The Government of Israel had previously suspended the transfer of the tax and customs revenues it collects on behalf of the PA.
Topic:: Government and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

277. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Annapolis and After

Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The process that will be launched shortly at Annapolis may not quite be do-or-die for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process but at the very least it is do-or-barely-survive. Positively, a U.S. administration that neglected Middle East peacemaking since taking office appears committed to an intensive effort: it has persuaded both sides to agree to negotiate final status issues – no mean feat after years of diplomatic paralysis and violent conflict. But pitfalls are equally impressive. The meeting, like the process it aims to spawn, occurs in a highly politicised context, with sharp divisions in the Palestinian and Israeli camps. These will make it hard to reach agreement and to sell it to both constituencies and, for the foreseeable future, virtually impossible to implement. Moreover, failure of the negotiations could discredit both leaderships, while further undermining faith in diplomacy and the twostate solution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

278. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

279. The Crisis in Interfaith Relations in the Middle East

Author:: Paul Wee
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The interfaith peace movement in the Middle East has foundered recently, a casualty of major geo-political events, among them the war in Iraq, the increase in hostility between Iran and the West, the Israel-Hezbollah war, and the failure of efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In addition, fallout continues from the Danish cartoon controversy and the remarks of Pope Benedict XVI in 2006. These and related factors have contributed to undermine interfaith efforts and limit opportunities for meaningful dialogue and common action.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Israel

280. The Israel-Hezbollah Conflict and the Shebaa Farms

Author:: Asher Kaufman
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: The recent war between Israel and Hezbollah brought to the forefront of regional and international attention the volatile boundaries between Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Indeed, the UN Security Council's August 11th Resolution, which facilitated the end of hostilities, dedicated much of its text to issues related to Lebanese sovereignty and its shared boundaries with Syria and Israel. In particular, the resolution stipulated the need to address the border dispute over the Shebaa farms.
Topic:: Armed Struggle and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

281. 'Justice on the Cheap' Revisited: The Failure of the Serious Crimes Trials in East Timor

Author:: David Cohen
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: From 2000 to 2005 a UN-sponsored tribunal in East Timor sought to achieve accountability for violence associated with the 1999 vote for independence from Indonesia. Despite criticism of the tribunal's performance the UN has maintained that it was a success. In fact the East Timor tribunal represents a virtual textbook case of how not to create, manage, and administer a hybrid justice process. It was handicapped from the beginning by a debilitating lack of resources, an unclear mandate, inadequate recruitment, ineffective management by a peacekeeping mission that had other priorities, and above all a lack of political will both at UN headquarters and at the mission level. Trial practices and jurisprudence were too often deeply flawed, in important respects did not meet international standards, and, in a significant number of cases, undermined the rights of the accused to a fair trial. Because the UN risks repeating some of the same mistakes in Cambodia it is particularly important now to assess the failings of the East Timor trials.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Crime, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Israel and United Nations

282. Pugwash Newsletter: To the Pugwash Community

Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:: The first half of 2006 witnessed continuing sectarian violence and domestic insurgency in Iraq and the inability of Iran and the international community to find a politically acceptable means for ensuring adequate transparency and confidence that Iran's nuclear technology program would not be diverted to military purposes. To that end, the Pugwash Conferences and the Center for Strategic Research in Tehran co-sponsored an international conference in April 2006 covering both Iran's nuclear energy program and the equally important issue of Iraq and regional stability (see p. 35). Unfortunately, little progress was made on either issue, whether at the conference or by the international community. When added to the continuing stalemate in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process occasioned by the election of a Hamas government, the outlook for Middle East stability could not have been more bleak.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

283. Falling In Line on Israel

Author:: Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The election of a Democratic majority in the House and Senate is unlikely to result in any serious challenge to the Bush administration's support for Israeli attacks against the civilian populations of its Arab neighbors and the Israeli government's ongoing violations of international humanitarian law.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Humanitarian Aid, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

284. Living with Palestinian Democracy

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: By electing a parliament dominated by Hamas, Palestinians have sharply challenged U.S. policy. The initial American reaction—undermining the new government—will leave the population in chaos, with various Palestinian groups vying for influence. Political constraints preclude anything but a Hamas government in the short term. But the Hamas victory should not be viewed as a defeat for the American vision of reform—which, indeed, may offer a path out of the current deadlock. The United States should develop a policy for the longer term to continue calming the Israeli- Palestinian conflict; maintain the Palestinian Authority; and work for political reform by focusing on the judiciary, media, and other institutions that are independent of the current regime.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

285. The Golan Heights and Syrian-Israeli Relations: What Does Asad Want?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The first annual International Media Forum on the Golan Heights, held November 5-7, 2006, in the city of Quneitra on the Syria-Israel border, highlighted Syria's stated desire for the return of the entire Golan. The forum's backdrop was a litany of controversial statements made by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad about his next moves in relation to Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

286. Prosecuting Terrorists: A Look at the American and Israeli Experiences

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Dvorah Chen
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's summer war with Hizballah has again raised legal questions about the imprisonment of terrorists in Israel. From its founding, the state of Israel has been forced to confront belligerent activities by hostile states and organizations seeking to destroy it. The struggle against Palestinian terrorism has taken an enormous toll over the course of the second intifada, during which time more than one thousand Israelis have been killed and thousands more wounded. Enemy combatants are imprisoned in order to prevent them from causing further destruction. Therefore, terrorist detentions play a central role in the struggle to prevent terrorist activities, and the legal issues surrounding these detentions pose crucial concerns for the entire international community. There are two major processes for the prosecution of terrorist detainees in Israel: (1) through the normal civilian criminal track based on penal legislation, and (2) through special administrative measures under the minister of defense.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Israel

287. From Beirut to Gaza: Israel's Neighbors in the Aftermath of War

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The governments on both of our “hot” fronts, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority, are on the verge of change, with practical, immediate implications for Israel—and unfortunately, not positive ones. Rather, the storm clouds continue to gather on the strategic horizon.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Government, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

288. Countering Holocaust Denial in Arab and Muslim Societies: A New Approach

Author:: Robert Satloff, Akbar Ahmed, and Gregg Rickman
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Of all the forms of anti-Semitism in Arab societies, Holocaust denial is one of the most pernicious and widespread. Generally it takes one of three forms: outright denial, Holocaust glorification, and Holocaust minimization or trivialization. One does no favor to Arabs by exempting them from this history, whatever its connection to their political dispute with Israel. And because jihadists' conspiracy theories target a coalition of “Crusaders and Jews,” exempting Arabs from Holocaust history certainly does America no favor either.
Topic:: International Relations, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, America, and Israel

289. Containing Hizballah's Terrorist Wing

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As part of the international effort to ensure that the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel can become a sustainable ceasefire, much attention has been paid to blocking arms shipments to Hizballah, as called for in UN Security Council Resolution 1701. But another threat to peace in the region is Hizballah's potent terrorist wing. Arguably its most dangerous offensive weapon, Hizballah's terrorist wing was active throughout this recent conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

290. Lessons and Consequences of the Israel-Hizballah War: An Early Assessment

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 25, 2006, Jeffrey White, David Makovsky, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White is the Berrie Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute and the coauthor, with Michael Eisenstadt, of the Institute Policy Focus Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency. David Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. He, like Jeffrey White, recently returned from a trip to Israel. Dennis Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

291. Syria's Role in the War in Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker and Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent developments related to the war in Lebanon—a warning from Damascus that Israeli forces in Lebanon should keep away from the Syrian border, the placement of Syrian forces on a heightened state of alert, the explosion of a crude improvised explosive device (IED) on the Syrian side of the Golan, President Bashar al-Asad's bellicose August 1 Army Day speech, Syrian facilitation of Iranian efforts to resupply Hizballah, and Israeli attempts to interdict these supply lines through air strikes along the Lebanon-Syria border—have prompted concerns that the fighting in Lebanon could escalate to involve Syria. Warnings from Damascus that an international stabilization force for Lebanon would be seen as an army of occupation, and therefore a legitimate target of resistance, have likewise raised the possibility that Syria might sponsor or support attacks on such a force, as it sponsored attacks against the Multi-National Force (MNF) in Beirut in 19821984.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

292. The Ground Offensive in Lebanon: An Opportunity

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Earlier this week, Israel began its long-anticipated ground offensive in Lebanon intended to degrade Hizballahs military apparatus, pacify Israels northern border with Lebanon, and lay the foundation for what is now frequently referred to as a sustainable ceasefire. Reaching a consensus on the precise meaning of the term sustainable will be a difficult prerequisite. But however such a ceasefire is defined beyond the presence of a robust international force, there is widespread agreement that it must include the participation of Syriaparticularly a commitment by Damascus to adhere to UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1680. So far, Syria has given no indication that it will agree to such a course, and, given the events of the past several weeks, it is difficult to imagine the circumstances under which Syrian president Bashar al-Asad might change his mind. That said, Israels new ground offensive in Lebanon represents a significant change in the status quo, one that may force Syria to reconsider.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

293. As UN Ceasefire Resolutions Loom, Diplomatic Gaps Remain

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As diplomacy to end hostilities between Israel and Lebanon intensifies at the United Nations, with a first resolution passed perhaps on Monday, conceptual gaps between the parties remain. The differences range from substantive to procedural. France has been at the center of diplomacy surrounding the passage of a UN Security Council resolution, since it is expected to lead the multinational force to southern Lebanon. From the outset of its consultations with the United States, which are at the center of UN diplomacy, France has sought two Security Council resolutions; this plan has won the backing of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The first resolution would declare an immediate ceasefire and establish general principles to guide the period after the ceasefire. The second resolution would, among other things, define the scope and mission of the multinational force.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, France, and Lebanon

294. Why a Multinational Force is Essential in Lebanon

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Lebanon plunges deeper into ruin and chaos as a result of Hizballah's “gang war” tactics against Israel's expanded military campaign to degrade the power of the Islamist party, Hizballah, Syria, and its allies in Lebanon are devising plans to subvert an international agreement on a multinational force to guard the Israel-Lebanon border. They are also preparing for a political comeback in a postconflict Lebanon by riding the wave of the victory Hizballah is sure to claim whatever the outcome—a supposed triumph that in reality will be at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

295. Israel's War against Hizballah and Its Battle against Hamas

Author:: Shimon Peres
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 1, 2006, the Honorable Shimon Peres addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum to discuss Israel's political and military strategy in its war against Hizballah. Shimon Peres is the deputy prime minister of Israel and a member of Knesset from the Kadima Party. A former prime minister, defense minister, and foreign minister, he has played a central role in the political life of Israel for more than half a century and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Peres's remarks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Israel

296. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

297. The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The critical question of whether or not the current conflict in Lebanon will escalate to a broader regional war is being answered in two overly simple ways. One such analysis is that this is a “meltdown” with escalating violence and mounting pressures for further escalation. A second, equally simplistic view is that since no one has an interest in escalating to a regional conflict it will not happen. Both of these views do not account for the complex set of dynamics and the real possibility that accident and error can intervene.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

298. Ceasefire Options for Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Wednesday, an international conference will open in Italy to discuss the state of Lebanon and explore potential formulas for an Israeli-Hizballah ceasefire. Current conditions make an immediate ceasefire unlikely, but should changing events make a ceasefire possible, one of the first priorities for the Bush administration and the international community will be to find a mechanism to reinvigorate and implement the remaining stipulations of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. In particular, that means disarming Hizballah. The group will no doubt oppose international and domestic efforts to disarm it, but the Lebanese government and the international community can take steps in the context of a ceasefire to consolidate Lebanese resentment toward Hizballah and press ahead with Resolution 1559.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Israel and Lebanon

299. Hizballah's Global Terror Option

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

300. Israel and Hizballah at War: A Status Report

Author:: David Schenker, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 19, 2006, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Schenker, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Schenker, a senior fellow in Arab politics at the Institute, served until 2005 as Levant country director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

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