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2. Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War
- Author:
- Annie Tracy Samuel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This policy brief seeks to contribute to and inform the debate concerning a possible attack by the United States and/or Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. The presumed aim of such an attack would be to weaken the Islamic Republic, particularly by hindering its ability to build a nuclear weapon. However, the history of the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980 calls into question the contention that an attack will weaken the regime in Tehran. This policy brief examines Iran's reactions to the Iraqi invasion in order to shed light on Iran's possible reactions to a U.S. or Israeli attack. It will assess how the Iranian people responded to the invasion and its effects on Iranian politics and the position of the new regime. It will also explore the nature of the policies adopted by the Islamic Republic in waging the Iran-Iraq War that carried on for eight years after the Iraqi invasion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
3. Serious Play: War Games Explore Options on Iran
- Author:
- Jeffrey White and Loring White
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- What if Iran's hardline leadership emerges from the current confrontations at home strengthened and emboldened? If so, the nuclear issue will be back with a vengeance. And three recent war games focused on the Iranian nuclear weapons issue suggest that the prospects for halting the regime's progress toward nuclear weapons are not good.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
4. Afghanistan Implementation Colloquium
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The tone of the conference was set by the leitmotiv of LISD's Afghanistan project work since 2001: “by, for, and with the Afghans and Afghanistan.” Most importantly this focuses on Afghan ownership and Afghan sovereignty, and the capability to determine the nation's destiny. However, the atmosphere and attitudes in and around Afghanistan seem to have noticeably shifted in the last eighteen months, especially with regard to the growing trust deficit between Afghans and the international community. Various actors within Afghanistan and within the region are now realigning their policies, motivated mainly by the perception of an impending draw down of international forces in Afghanistan. The possible heightening of tensions with Afghanistan's western neighbor, Iran, over its nuclear ambitions further complicates the West's calculus of involvement in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Iran
5. Averting Iranian Influence in Post-War Gaza: The Rehabilitation Issue
- Author:
- Shimon Shapira
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Immediately upon the end of the fighting in Gaza, the international community will enlist on behalf of an extensive rehabilitation project to enable the Palestinian population to return to their homes and get on with their civil and economic lives. It is of prime importance to prevent Iran from acquiring influence in post-war Gaza through any assistance programs. Following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Iran and Hizbullah grasped the political and economic significance of the rehabilitation project in the Shiite areas of southern Lebanon damaged during the war. Hizbullah directed the rehabilitation work, while totally ignoring the central Lebanese government, and in this manner regained and even reinforced its influence within the Shiite community. Iran is already positioning itself for influence in post-war Gaza. On January 14, 2009, the Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Akbar Mohtashami, arrived in Lebanon heading a 40-man delegation in order to direct Iranian support for Hamas. The main objective for Israel and the international community should be to deny Iran the attainment of this objective and to transform the Palestinian Authority, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, into the principal factor, along with Egypt, entrusted with the rehabilitation work in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon
6. PolicyWatch #1420: Why the Next U.S. President Will Be a Wartime Leader
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The next U.S. president will be a wartime president. Developments in the Middle East almost ensure that either John McCain or Barack Obama will have to manage one or more wars involving the United States or its allies in the region.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
7. PolicyWatch #1422: Win, Lose, or Draw: Iraq Decisions Await President-Elect
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Barack Obama assumes office on January 20, 2009, the president-elect will face many pressing issues. The strategic case for careful and active management of Iraq policy, however, remains strong. Iraq has at least 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (9.3 percent of the world total) and borders Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. This vital Middle Eastern country could become a terrorist thoroughfare and the scene of future regional wars or it could become a stable and prosperous U.S. ally. What matters now is not how U.S. presence in Iraq started, but how it will change in the next four years. It may be far more economical to finish stabilizing Iraq under the relatively favorable present conditions compared to the unknown and potentially unfavorable situation of the future. Iraq retains the potential to contribute to U.S. policy objectives in the Persian Gulf region and the broader Islamic world. It could yet emerge as a strong democratic state at the center of the Middle East.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
8. Fighting Iran in Iraq
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The February 11 intelligence briefing in Baghdad revealed specific information about the transfer of weapons and weapons technology to Iranian allies in Iraq. This has furthered an extensive discussion of Iran's role in Iraq, especially as it relates to violence in the region. The involvement of Iran's clerical regime in Iraq is not new, or simple. It can be measured in decades, and is multifaceted and comprehensive, demanding an equally broad response from the United States and U.S. allies.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Baghdad
9. PolicyWatch #1243: Special Forum Report: When Diplomacy Failed: Lessons Learned from June 1967
- Author:
- Dennis Ross, Samuel Lewis, and Wendy Chamberlin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The historical record has made it increasingly clear that in the May-June 1967 Middle East conflict, public assurances from world powers -- or the lack thereof -- greatly influenced the decisionmaking of regional leaders. Specifically, Soviet encouragement of Egypt -- both public and private -- played a large role in influencing Egyptian chief of staff and military commander Abdul Hakim Amer as he brought President Gamal Abdul Nasser to the brink of war with Israel. At the same time, however, the U.S. government under President Lyndon Johnson extended no parallel public assurances to Israel. This absence of commitment from a major foreign power or the UN in a moment of crisis affected the mindset of Israel's policymakers whenever they faced national security dilemmas thereafter, leading them to take many unilateral actions in subsequent years.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
10. The Bottom Line on Iran: The Costs and Benefits of Preventive War versus Deterrence
- Author:
- Justin Logan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- It appears increasingly likely that the Bush administration's diplomatic approach to Iran will fail to prevent Iran from going nuclear and that the United States will have to decide whether to use military force to attempt to delay Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability. Some analysts have already been promoting air strikes against Iran, and the Bush administration has pointed out repeatedly that the military option is “on the table.” This paper examines the options available to the United States in the face of a prospective final diplomatic collapse.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East