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Begin New Search Topic Economics Political Geography Europe Content Type Policy Brief

361. Creation of the Euro Area: Implications for Economic Statistics

Author:
Paul Schreyer
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
A major event in early 2002 was the arrival of the euro banknotes and coins and the withdrawal of the existing twelve national currencies from circulation. The event has influenced every citizen in the euro area and is clearly a historic change. It heralds a new phase in forging an “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”. In economic terms, however, the introduction in January 1999 of the single currency after determining the irrevocably fixed exchange rates of the national currencies with the euro was a more important event. It meant that decisions on monetary policy moved from national central banks to the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. This Statistics Brief highlights some of the consequences for economic statistics of the creation of the euro area.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

362. International — Auto Consolidation

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

363. International — Weak Dollar

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

364. International — Global Economy

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

365. European Union — Insecure Recovery

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the outlook for euro-area economic performance. Despite some indications of improvements in the global and euro-area economies, it is too early to assume that these signify a lasting recovery.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

366. United States/European Union — WTO Sanctions

Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
US trade officials said last week that EU estimates of damages arising from US export subsidies were exaggerated. EU trade officials have asked the WTO to approve 4 billion dollars worth of trade sanctions against the United States, after the latter lost an appeal before the WTO on the tax treatment of foreign-source income — judged to be illegal export subsidies. Washington must amend its tax laws or face the prospect of retaliatory trade restrictions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Washington

367. European Union — ECB Policy

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the ECB's monetary and communication policy. The Governing Council of the ECB has appeared fairly unmoved either by widespread criticism of its communication policy or by growing pressure for lower interest rates. The ECB has no choice but to remain committed to its price stability mandate, despite the change in economic climate. However, in doing so, it remains vulnerable to the dilemmas posed by the combination of strong independence and a narrow mandate.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

368. Avoiding a Cyprus Crisis

Author:
Philip H. Gordon and Henri Barkey
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The resumption of negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders has led to renewed hopes that the divided island of Cyprus can be reunified ahead of its likely invitation to join the European Union (EU) in December 2002. In fact, however, there is no guarantee that the renewed talks will produce a deal. Americans and other interested observers should support the process and encourage the leaders to compromise. But they should also be prepared for a scenario in which the parties cannot overcome their differences and the EU extends an invitation to join that would only apply to the Greek portion of the island.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Island

369. Turkey's Elections and the United States

Author:
Philip H. Gordon and Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The landslide victory of an Islamic party in a Turkish election would hardly seem to be good news for Americans at anytime. Butwithwarlooming inIraq,Turkeytrying torecoverfromits worst financial crisis ever, emerging questions about European defense and NATO, Cyprus talks at a critical stage, and Ankara's application for membershipinthe EuropeanUnioninthe balance, the November3electoralvictory oftheJusticeand DevelopmentParty(AKP)probably struck many U.S. observers as the wrong outcome at the wrong time.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

370. Euro-Focus, After The German Electoral Storm: Mending Bridges, Rebuilding Confidence

Author:
Simon Serfaty and Christina Balis
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This past summer began with predictions of the return of a new conservative government in Germany and the alleged demise of Europe's left. The consecutive victories of leftwing parties in Sweden and Germany this month proved the fallacy of both predictions, while raising serious questions in Europe and the United States about the future course of German policies.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Germany, and Sweden

371. Euro-Focus, September 11, One Year Later A Fading Transatlantic Partnership?

Author:
Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
One year ago, the two summits scheduled by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) for the end of 2002 were expected to start the final phase of the Euro-Atlantic vision: two institutions with overlapping sets of members engaged in missions that might not always be pursued in common but would always remain compatible in their goals and complementary in their methods. Instead, as the year has unfolded since September 11, that vision has become increasingly blurred. Now, there is a sense that the two sides of the Atlantic are drifting away from the lofty goals they set after World War II and during the Cold War, and sought to reassert after the Cold War. The relationship is not only said to be lacking coherence; it is also said to be losing its necessity, as Americans and Europeans no longer share values or even interests—and, even when they do, lose their commonalities in the increasing capabilities gap that divides them.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

372. Chirac's Blind Date with History

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, Pierre Messerlin, and Chris Wiley
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The French elections held during the past eight weeks—first for the presidency and then for the National Assembly—were the most significant elections held in France since 1981. On the whole, their outcome is good for France, for Europe, and for the United States. They restore a political coherence that had been lacking during seven of the last nine years, when the French political system lived under the strained conditions of political cohabitation (1993–1995 and 1997–2002). Moreover, by renewing the primacy of the French presidency, these elections enable Jacques Chirac to assert his leadership during the decisive years that loom ahead for the European Union (EU), as well as for its relations with the United States within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Finally, these elections also confirm Europe's political drift to a center-right that the elections in Germany scheduled for September 23 are likely to make complete (Euro-Focus, September 15, 2002).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and France

373. Taxing Decisions for Europe

Author:
Jennifer Lee, Simon Serfaty, and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Ten years after the target date for the completion of the European internal market, much remains to be desired in the area of common policies. The absence of a coherent EU tax policy, in particular, has been a continued obstacle. Yet, with the introduction of the euro and in view of the EU's anticipated enlargement (Euro-Focus, January 9, 2002), the timeline for addressing these deficiencies is shortening.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

374. Bigger Europe, Smaller Agenda

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, George Handy, and Georgeta Pourchot
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
“More Europe in every area” may sound like an ill-chosen motto for a six-month presidency facing an already demanding and inflated agenda. It is reflective of a concern, however, not to expand the current list of priorities to new initiatives that would risk the fate of past abortive attempts. Avoiding new confrontations, while ensuring the smooth pursuit of ongoing reforms, has become Spain's principal goal during its presidency in the first half of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

375. The Year of Enlargement

Author:
Simon Serfaty and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Preparations for EU enlargement, combined with more of the unfolding debate on the constitutional future of Europe, will dominate Europe's institutional agenda in 2002. The three Baltic countries and all four countries in central Europe, plus Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus should be able to conclude their bilateral access negotiations by December 2002, and even, in a few cases, on time for the European Council of June 21–22, in Seville, Spain. Expect, therefore, the enlargement of the EU to 25 members—one that might start as early as January 2004 and end, possibly, no later than June 30, 2007. What follows is a 17-step primer on the process and pattern, the various timetables, and the possible outcomes of an enlargement that will begin to emerge, at last, in 2002.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and France

376. Turkey's Bold Step Into the Future: Will the EU Meet the Challenge?

Author:
Adam S. Albion
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The triumph of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey's November 3 national election represents a significant opportunity to demonstrate both to the West and the Muslim world that it is possible for a democratic, Islamic party to effectively lead a modern secular state. Such a demonstration of the compatibility of Islam and democracy could produce a catalytic and strategically important effect among moderate Muslims throughout the world. The AKP seems to have recognized the importance of this opportunity by pledging to continue with much-needed political and economic reforms and EU integration efforts. The EU and the West must not let this opportunity pass them by; they must continue to encourage Turkey on its path to economic and political reform by establishing a concrete timeline towards EU membership and by helping Turkey to overcome its current financial crisis. Rejection by the West at this critical juncture could have very damaging effects, not only for Turkey, but for the viability of moderate Islamic parties throughout the Muslim world.
Topic:
Economics and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

377. Russia's Maternal and Infant Health Crisis: Socio-Economic Implications and the Path Forward

Author:
Stephen M. Massey
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Today, fewer than one in three Russian newborns is healthy, disease rates among Russian children are surging, and shrinking access to quality family planning and prenatal care has worsened the state of women's reproductive health across Russia. The health of Russia's infants and children is especially significant given the country's shrinking population and the mounting problems of infectious disease, rural poverty, illegal narcotics, and alcohol abuse – all contributing factors to poor birth outcomes. The long-term economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious limiting factor to Russia's emergence as a strong economic partner and international actor. Many infant deaths and childhood illnesses could be prevented with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to quality care, and reform of Russia's healthcare sector – each of which is too costly for Russia to finance on its own. Untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

378. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

379. Global Economic Prospects

Author:
Michael Mussa
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

380. The Foreign Sales Corporation: Reaching the Last Act?

Author:
Gary Hufbauer
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe