Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Europe / Publication Year: within 10 Years

501. Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara

Author:: Hugh Lovatt and Jacob Mundy
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The recent violent end of the ceasefire in Western Sahara means the EU and the UN should pay renewed attention to resolving the longstanding conflict between the native Sahrawis and Morocco. Various peace-making efforts over the years have led the Sahrawis’ representative organisation, Polisario, to make concessions to Morocco. However, Morocco remains insistent on an autonomy option for the Sahrawis – not independence. The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination. France, along with the US, should encourage this by removing their diplomatic protection for Morocco both within the EU and at the UN. Correctly aligning the EU’s political and trade relations will be vital to bringing this conflict to a close. It is in EU member states’ interest to ensure a stable southern neighbourhood.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, European Union, Decolonization, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Morocco, and Western Sahara

502. How to prevent Germany from becoming Eurosceptic

Author:: Mark Leonard and Jana Puglierin
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Fifteen months into the covid-19 pandemic, there has been a major collapse in Germans’ trust in the European Union. German politicians need to react to the growing pressure on the consensus in German society for an outward-looking and pro-EU Germany. At the same time, Germany’s traditional ways of thinking are increasingly unsuited to addressing new foreign policy challenges. To find a viable model for its economic, security, and EU policy, the next federal government needs to address some of the unsettling issues that its predecessors have often ignored. The key to building support for an outward-looking and pro-EU Germany lies, paradoxically, in anchoring German policy in a narrower focus on the national interest. To engage more confidently with a world that is changing, outward-looking Germans need to shape a progressive new national identity before it is defined by the forces of isolation and exclusion. If Germany does not shift its course, it will end up with an inadequate foreign policy that lacks public support. Policymakers need to better explain how Berlin uses the EU to increase its influence and thereby enhance the wealth, prosperity, and security of the German public.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

503. The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America

Author:: Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the November US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader. Europeans’ attitudes towards the United States have undergone a massive change. Majorities in key member states now think the US political system is broken, and that Europe cannot just rely on the US to defend it. They evaluate the EU and/or their own countries’ systems much more positively than that of the US – and look to Berlin rather than Washington as the most important partner. There are geopolitical consequences to American weakness. A majority believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade and would want their country to stay neutral in a conflict between the two superpowers. Two-thirds of respondents thought the EU should develop its defence capacities. There is a great chance for a revival of Atlanticism, but Washington cannot take European alignment against China for granted. Public opinion will have a bigger effect on the relationship than it once did, and needs to be taken into account.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

504. Artificial divide: How Europe and America could clash over AI

Author:: Ulrike Franke
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence is a rapidly advancing field that policymakers everywhere are struggling to keep up with. Calls for international, and particularly transatlantic, cooperation are growing. In Europe, interest in strengthening “ethical” AI policy is particularly strong – including as a way of making Europe more attractive than other jurisdictions around the world. Close cooperation between Europe and the US is not a given: Europe sees the US as its main competitor in AI; the US wants to join forces against China on AI, but European interest in such a front is weak. The non-combat military realm may be a good area for transatlantic AI cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Artificial Intelligence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

505. Spoiler alert: How Europe can save diplomacy in Libya

Author:: Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Key European states need to make Libya a shared foreign policy priority, and to overcome their competing approaches to the country. Europeans must reinvigorate the UN political track and use it to reinforce a unified national structure rather than entrench competing administrations. They should focus on protecting Europe’s core interests in Libya: sustainably ending the conflict, creating a reliable local partner, and preserving European influence. To make the UN process work, Europeans should take a more hands-on approach to blocking and isolating domestic and international spoilers, refocusing the political track on unifying objectives, and supporting security sector reform. Europeans should also provide stabilisation, technical, and diplomatic support to strengthen Libya’s governance and accountability mechanisms, which are needed to ensure a new government can successfully hold elections in December 2021.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Libya

506. Power surge: How the European Green Deal can succeed in Morocco and Tunisia

Author:: Amine Bennis
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia can help Europe meet its carbon emissions targets and strengthen its position in the face of fierce competition from China for economic and political influence. By encouraging European investment in renewable energy, the European Green Deal can increase local workforce opportunities, promote development, and stabilise migration, enhancing stability in the region. The EU should promote green hydrogen projects in Morocco and Tunisia. These would contribute to its climate neutrality goals and develop both European industrial leadership and local economies. The EU should also promote new electrical interconnections across the Mediterranean, to foster an integrated electricity market. Morocco and Tunisia should become official “Green Partners” of the EU. This would help catalyse joint action and ease those countries’ green transitions – especially that of Tunisia, which is particularly in need of help building additional capacity.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, European Union, Electricity, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Europe, Morocco, and Tunisia

507. Decade of patience: How China became a power in the Western Balkans

Author:: Vladimir Shopov
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: China has become the most prominent third actor in the Western Balkans. The country’s activities are spread unevenly across the region, but they follow a common approach. This approach is marked by China’s wide-ranging efforts to establish itself in key economic areas and to gradually position itself as an indispensable actor. China is slowly transforming its interactions with Western Balkans countries in sectors such as culture, media, and politics into long-term and institutionalised relationships. As European and US ambivalence towards the Western Balkans persists, the region will be in increasing danger of falling into an endless spiral of competition between various foreign actors. Western policymakers should address the widening developmental gap between the region and the EU through initiatives such as targeted investment plans in energy and infrastructure, sectoral integration frameworks, and the frontloading of EU law in the accession process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and United States of America

508. The geopolitics of the European Green Deal

Author:: Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jeremy Shapiro, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The European Green Deal will have profound geopolitical repercussions, some of which are likely to have an adverse impact on the European Union’s partners. The EU should prepare to manage these repercussions in its relationships with important countries in its neighbourhood such as Russia and Algeria, and with global players such as the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia. The bloc should engage with oil- and gas-exporting countries to foster their economic diversification, including into renewable energy and green hydrogen that could be exported to Europe. The EU should improve the supply security of critical raw materials and limit its dependence on other countries – primarily on China – for these materials. It should work with the US and other partners to establish a ‘climate club’ whose members would apply similar carbon border adjustment measures. The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, particularly in hydrogen and green bonds. It should internationalise the European Green Deal by mobilising the EU budget, the EU recovery fund, and EU development policy. The EU should promote global coalitions for climate change mitigation, such as one to protect the permafrost. The bloc should promote a global platform on the new economics of climate action, to share lessons learned and best practice.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Europe

509. Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a decade-long feud that is reshuffling the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa. They see each other as existential rivals and are waging a series of proxy wars between the Horn of Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Their rivalry also plays out in the halls of Washington and Brussels, the global media discourse, the energy industry, and, lately, ports and the high seas. Europe should avoid being sucked into this power struggle to redefine the Middle East and North Africa. Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry. Europe should establish a NATO deconfliction mechanism, push ahead with the political process in Libya, and design a constructive new framework to insulate European-Turkey relations from the rivalry.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United Arab Emirates

510. Anti-money laundering in Albania: What role for civil society?

Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: Topics related to money laundering and terrorist financing are not new to civil society, academia and especially the media in Albania. While the latter (media) has often reported on the phenomenon , law and economics researchers have addressed both topics, although they have done so less frequently in the context of research initiatives. Civil society, on the other hand, has been more passive regarding the phenomenon and measures against money laundering (AML), or those against terrorist financing (CFT). Except for several research organizations engaged in the field of security, anti-corruption or prevention of violent extremism, concepts such as AML / CFT became widely known to civil society actors a few years ago, when Albania took additional steps to meet the standards of Recommendation 8 of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Specifically, this recommendation suggests that FATF member countries should improve the legal framework for non-profit organizations to prevent their misuse for financing terrorism. Furthermore, the issue of money laundering is most frequently addressed in public discourse and various research reports mainly in the context of confiscation of assets and illicit proceeds generated by organized crime. However, money laundering is yet to be examined in the context of high-level corruption and state capture, increased reporting on organized crime, illegitimate interests intertwined in politics, economics and beyond. The fight against law enforcement institutions against criminal groups and other “traditional” or contemporary challenges (e.g. cryptocurrencies) suggest that the AML / CFT capacities of state institutions need additional support, new skills, in-depth analysis and alternative sources of knowledge.
Topic:: Civil Society, Crime, Law Enforcement, Financial Crimes, and Money
Political Geography:: Europe and Albania

511. National Security vs. Accountability: Striking the Right Balance

Author:: Redion Qirjazi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: Information classification is an important mechanism that governments use to keep citizens safe and protect national interests. However, when classification regimes produce excessive secrecy, they can both interfere with democratic governance and counterproductively jeopardize national security. As such, on the one hand, ‘overclassification’ can lead to reduced oversight, transparency, and accountability in the security sector, while on the other, prevent security agencies from sharing information rapidly and detect security threats in due time. Unfortunately, in the case of Albania, there still remains a disproportionate emphasis on the need to safeguard national secrets versus the right of citizens to be informed on decisions made on their behalf. Hence, as it is for every other public institution, this policy brief calls for security sector agencies to pursue a balanced approach to secrecy: one that strikes the right compromise between protecting national security and delivering good governance by ensuring transparency and accountability.
Topic:: Government, National Security, Accountability, Transparency, Classification, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Europe and Albania

512. Citizenship and residency by investment in the EU

Author:: Rose Hartwig-Peillon
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Whilst the granting of citizenship and residence rights remain a national competence, they represent a challenge for the entire Union. Indeed, in addition to being ethically questionable, Residency and Citizenship by Investment (RCBI) schemes pose a serious security threat to the European Union as a whole. The evidence gathered suggests that companies specializing in citizenship consultancy have become experts in exploiting the schemes’ loopholes, using this knowledge on behalf of their clients to circumvent EU rules. The lack of transparency of the programs allows corruption to bloom and thrive, and the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to increase the demand for such schemes. Hence, this paper calls for a major redesign of the existing programs and for an EU-wide debate on the schemes at the occasion of the Conference on the Future of Europe.
Topic:: Immigration, European Union, Citizenship, and Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

513. The perspectives of the Czech automotive industry's decarbonization

Author:: Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our Research Fellow Michal Hrubý examines the current state of the Czech automotive industry and its possible decarbonisation in connection with emissions. He divides his recommendations into five points - bolster green investments, financial incentives are the change-drivers, boost charging infrastructure, support the corporate BEVs fleet market and a ban on ICEVs is not the solution per se.
Topic:: Climate Change, Manufacturing, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

514. Analysing EU’s Sahel strategies: A civilian approach in the era of pragmatism

Author:: Vojtěch Freitag
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: This April, the EU has unveiled and adopted a brand-new long-term 2021 Sahel strategy, which should reflect the turbulent development and better coordinate the multiple policies and instruments the EU pursues in the region. Does it signal a notable change in EU’s course of action in Sahel? How does it relate to the ‘pragmatist turn’ in the EU’s foreign policy? And what particular issues do the three CSDP missions face?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sahel

515. Czech 2022 Presidency to the Council of the EU

Author:: Vít Havelka
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In his policy paper, our research fellow Vít Havelka provides an overview of the current stage of preparations for the Czech Presidency and specifically elaborates on what topics the Czech Republic could choose as its priorities. Methodologically, the paper is divided into three separate parts, corresponding to three different levels of the program structure: political priorities, triadic priorities, and public service priorities.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

516. A “New” pact on Migration and Asylum? The European migration policy path-dependency

Author:: Agathe Helluin
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Agathe Helluin has written a Policy Brief on "A New Start on Migration": this is how the European Commission described the new pact on migration and asylum presented at the 2020 State of the Union speech in September. This new pact undoubtedly captures the expectation that the EU will fully reshape its migration policy by recognising its limits and shortcomings.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Borders, Asylum, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

517. Implications of the 2020 US Presidential Election on the EU and Czech Climate Policy

Author:: Aneta Navrátilová
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: More than anything, 2020 will be remembered for fighting against the world-wide Covid-19 pandemic which has reshaped all of our societies in dramatic ways. Once again, it has highlighted a latent conflict between nation-states and sovereignty, real or perceived, on one hand, and international, if not supranational, cooperation and multilateralism on the other. The crisis exacerbated existing conflicts between nationalists and national conservatives, prominently predisposed towards isolationism, exemplified most acutely in Trump’s America First agenda, and progressives and liberals on the other hand arguing for deepening integration, strengthening multilateralism, and international cooperation to tackle global crises. The US elections became emblematic of this wider, more fundamental struggle, as well as the societal polarization that, to varying degrees, haunts the rest of the developed world. Yet, with a Trump soundly rejected in a landslide election loss, one can wonder whether his loss portends similar rejections of populism and national conservatism across the globe. The 2020 US presidential election was unprecedented, fevered, divisive, and emotional for various reasons. Firstly, the Republican ticket of incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence was defeated. Secondly, Joe Biden obtained the largest share of the people’s vote against his opponent and the highest turnout in the last one hundred years was reached in this year’s election, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, referring to an increased concern about future direction of the US. And lastly, as Biden won the election with flying colours, the whole world is now contemplating what will change. Not only on the domestic level, but also the international one.
Topic:: Climate Change, Multilateralism, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Czech Republic, and United States of America

518. Albanian judiciary under construction

Author:: Megi Bakiasi
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In a policy paper, Megi Bakiasi deals with the judiciary reform in Albania, including the European dimension of reform, and presents recommendations for addressing its shortcomings. The 2016 judicial reform is certainly a historical paradigm shift for Albania. The reform brought about significant change, by cleansing the system from a number of its corrupt officials. Nevertheless, like all transitions, it encountered a number of difficulties with respect to its implementation. The lack of precision in the reform laws, as well as the failure to provide a safety net resulted in numerous vacancies that paralysed key judicial institutions. Furthermore, the laxity shown by the executive and legislative branches delayed the advancement of the reform and resulted in multiple shortcomings with regard to transparency. Lastly, the provisions relative to the right to resign and the lack of proper examination of the three vetting criteria have a negative impact on the establishment of the principle of accountability.
Topic:: Reform, Accountability, Judiciary, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Albania

519. Health and Public communication in the era of conspiracy theories

Author:: Milan Urbaník
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Milan Urbaník in his policy paper addresses public health communication in the era of widespread conspiracy theories. He focuses on the vaccination against COVID-19 and presents the most important attributes of a communication campaign that would challenge disinformation surrounding the vaccination. The Czech government is under increased pressure to persuade citizens to vaccinate themselves against Covid-19. The strong presence of anti-vaccination movements, as well as general scepticism of Czech public against vaccination represents a serious challenge for public communication. To communicate effectively in the context of conspiracy theories, the Czech Ministry of Education should follow simple best practices to persuade citizens to vaccinate. The messages communicated should be clear and simple, delivered by reliable and familiar messengers. Furthermore, the right channels should be considered, and various governmental institutions should be consistent in their messages. In addition to the short-term adjustments, the Ministry of Health should consider employing or training health communication experts that would design, pre-test and evaluate health campaigns to realise the full persuasive potential of health communication.
Topic:: Public Health, Vaccine, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Conspiracy Theory
Political Geography:: Europe

520. Biden’s administration as a chance for a new start of US-EU cooperation in the Western Balkans

Author:: Jana Juzová
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In her latest policy paper from the Eastern Monitor series, our research fellow Jana Juzová focuses on US President Joe Biden's foreign policy administration in relation to the EU and possible future cooperation in the Western Balkans. After the drift in the transatlantic relations under the Trump administration in the past four years many changes are expected by the new Joe Biden administration. One of the foreign policy areas where major changes are to come is Western Balkans and the continued stabilization and normalization processes in the region. While in most of areas the capacity of the new U.S. President and his administration to achieve visible changes during the short time span of the first term is limited, in the case of the Western Balkans it represents a real opportunity for some positive impact. The historical experience showed that progress in the region can be achieved only through a coordinated joint approach by the U.S. and the EU. The result of the elections is also due to Biden’s history with the region great news especially for Kosovo. His hard stance on Serbs in the 1990s as well as his open support to Kosovo independence suggest that the small nation will now have a strong partner on its side, and Biden is the most desirable President for Kosovo. This expectation was reaffirmed by Biden’s statement urging for the continuation of the Dialogue, leading towards mutual recognition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and United States of America

521. EU Horizon 2021-2027 – innovation momentum for Europe

Author:: Katarína Svitková
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our Associate Research Fellow Katarína Svitková wrote the first article for the new EUROPEUM publications series: 2021–2027 Horizon Europe. In a policy brief Katarína summarises the objectives of Horizon 2021-2027 and introduces the "Innovation” pillar of the European Union funding scheme for the following years. One year on, despite some less-than-smooth negotiations regarding the structural funds and the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, Europe is recovering. Horizon Europe has officially launched its new funding period and the EU member countries are preparing to benefit. Amidst domestic pressure, the UK Government’s is fighting hard to maintain access to the framework. The COVID-19 vaccination is underway throughout the continent, and the EU-leaders-agreed Just Transition Fund is another step towards what is to become a truly transformative period for the European industry and climate. As the dust settles in the aftermath of Brexit and COVID-19, it is time to review the ample opportunities for growth and innovation made possible by Horizon Europe. The 2021 – 2027 program was officially launched this past February, with a number of programs and calls currently opening for the first funding period.
Topic:: European Union, Innovation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

522. Innovating through knowledge: European Institute of Innovation and Technology 2027 – and why it matters

Author:: Katarína Svitková
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our Associate Research Fellow Katarína Svitková has written the second article of the new publication series EUROPEUM: 2021–2027 Horizon Europe. In her policy brief, Katarína presents the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) as one of the main components of the Horizon Europe Innovation Pillar and describes its program and objectives. Innovation through research and development has been a long-term objective throughout the European funding frameworks. With the start of the 2021 –2027 cycle of Horizon Europe, EU’s innovation institutions are continuing, but also setting more ambitious priorities and launching new components and programs. Continuing EUROPEUM’s series on EU innovation momentum, this article presents the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) as one of the major components of the Horizon Europe Innovation pillar.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe

523. Innovating Higher Education – EIT launches a EUR 27 million call

Author:: Katarína Svitková
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our Associate Research Fellow Katarína Svitková has written the third article of the new publication series EUROPEUM: 2021–2027 Horizon Europe. In her policy brief, Katarína focuses on the issue of education, which, like many other sectors, underwent a fundamental change during the pandemic. She also presents the Innovation Capacity Building for Higher Education program. The year of 2020 and its series of abrupt and unprecedented changes did not spare the field of higher education. With the start of the global pandemic in the spring of 2020, universities and research institutions were forced to transition a remote form of work, research and instruction. Having overcome the initial shock and transformation phase, a majority of higher education institutions are currently running their third semester partially or entirely online. The past year thus brought fundamental changes in the way universities work, and boosted the debate about the very objectives and purpose of higher education. Debates over its efficiency and effectiveness were revived, deepening the existing argumentation divide between the advocates of quantitative outputs measurement (such as employability or GDP) on one hand, and qualitative social sciences approach geared towards intangible skills such as critical thinking, on the other. The program titled Innovation Capacity Building for Higher Education falls under the 2021 – 2027 EIT Strategy, and its overall objective is to boost innovation and entrepreneurship at European higher education institutions. In line with the general funding priorities of the EU’s Horizon framework, it builds on connecting higher education and research organizations across the EU to build capacities in the sector, which is key for future development and prosperity of Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Innovation, Higher Education, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

524. Russian Grand Strategy and how to handle it

Author:: Marc Franco
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In many Western chancelleries, there still is a lot of hesitation and bewilderment on how to deal with Russia. A first step in defining a coherent policy vis-a-vis Russia, is trying to understand the motivation and objectives of Russian foreign policy, as well as its weaknesses.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Grand Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

525. From one master of survival to another: a tardigrade’s plea for NATO2030

Author:: Tania Latici
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A microscopic creature whose size reaches that of a grain of rice at the utmost could teach NATO more survival lessons than one would think. The tardigrade has survived all five mass extinctions and is over 500 million years old. Like NATO, the tardigrade survived the nuclear challenge and even outer space. It is hard to find a more resilient animal from which NATO can draw inspiration for its ability to adapt to and withstand the most extreme conditions. To remain relevant and powerful in a dynamic threat landscape NATO needs to do what it has always been doing: adapt. Yet by 2030 NATO not only needs to adapt. Just like the tardigrade, it needs to hyper adapt. Four areas are key: redefining defence and deterrence; agreeing on the math; internal renewal; and rebuilding public support. Money, politics and nostalgia are not enough to keep the Alliance alive. It is time to get creative.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

526. For a New NATO-EU Bargain

Author:: Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: NATO and the European Union (EU) are both engaged in a continuous cycle of adaptation, witness in 2021 the NATO 2030 process on the NATO side, and the Strategic Compass on the EU side. These two exercises aim to look forward to how both institutions can better respond to ever-changing risks and threats. One key dimension in this debate is the optimal division of tasks between NATO and the EU, so that what they do together and in a coordinated manner is bigger than what they do separately or in a disorderly way. The issue of NATO-EU cooperation is obviously not new and has been at the heart of the development of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) since the late 1990s. This ties into at least three levels of debate that pertain to: the relationship and complementarity between the two organizations; the issue of what European states do within NATO; and the broader transatlantic bond. This said, twenty years of debates and inter- institutional cooperation have fallen short of clarifying what the two institutions must do in relation to each other. Most importantly, the NATO-EU conundrum is hampered by a series of never-met objectives and pledges, as well as by frictions on issues such as duplication, overlap, European strategic autonomy and burden-sharing. Against this background, this paper takes stock of these unmet objectives and offers a broad picture of what a division of tasks between NATO and the EU could possibly look like. The analysis is intentionally bold and puts forward a number of proposals that are undeniably contentious. It nonetheless draws on an observation of long-term and more recent trends, and aims at feeding the debate about the future of the two main European security institutions and the way they can interlock better.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

527. Expanding the Reach of the Special Forces with a Gender-Mixed Deep Development Capability (DDC): Identifying Challenges and Lessons Learned

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Driven by the need to adapt to a changing security environment, the Belgian Special Forces Group has developed a new gender- mixed capability in 2020, including female soldiers in the operational detachment of the unit for the first time. This brief examines the development and implementation of the project and identifies challenges for future similar capacities. It points to the need for clarification of tasks and employment conditions, while attracting male candidates is necessary to maintain the ‘mixed’ character of the capability. In conclusion it argues that overall, efforts to avoid gender instrumentalization have been successful and the creation of the capability is a first step in the direction to diversify the composition of the Special Forces, a step that is necessary to remain relevant in a complex security context.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Gender Issues, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

528. TINA for Putin – Or is there an alternative?

Author:: Marc Franco
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: EU Relations with Russia hit the news headlines this week. The visit of EU High Representative Josep Borrell, launched in a constructive spirit, ended up in a diplomatic catastrophe. The Navalny saga and the recent weekly demonstrations all over Russia have been commented on at length in the Western press. What is going on in Russia? How to interpret the recent surge of aggressiveness of theRussianauthorities? Aretheprotestsjusta small hiccup in a stable Putin regime, or is something more going on? To be clear, this is neither the end nor, probably, the beginning of theendofaregime.Buttheeventsarefarfrom insignificant. In this article I look at the ongoing events from three angles: what is the Putin regime up to? What is behind the recent wave of protests? And what are the implications for the EU’s relations with Russia?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

529. The EU-MENA Partnership: Time for a Reset

Author:: Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The storm raging across the Southern Neighbourhood, as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is also known in European terminology, is not about to subside any time soon. Beyond crisis management, current dysfunctions need a long-term, sustained and transformative approach. That was the spirit of the Barcelona Declaration and the original concept of the European neighbourhood policy. Obviously, it didn’t work as expected. The question is why, and how to put the train back on the tracks.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

530. Breaking the Law of Opposite Effects: Europe’s Strategic Autonomy and the Revived Transatlantic Partnership

Author:: Iulian Romanyshyn
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The post-Cold War transatlantic relations have been marked by something akin to the law of opposite effects. When the relationship is vibrant, Europe’s defence cooperation stagnates. When the relationship is in trouble, Europeans pull themselves together to advance their security and defence interests. During the Clinton presidency, Europeans comfortably outsourced military crisis management in the Balkans to Washington. In contrast, a major transatlantic rift over the Iraq war during the Bush administration triggered the adoption of the European Security Strategy and a bulk of EU military operations under the banner of the European Security and Defence Policy. EU-US relations were back on an even keel during the Obama era, the time when Europeans haphazardly reduced their defence budgets and lost a great share of their military capabilities. Enter Donald Trump. During the deepest crisis of confidence among transatlantic allies in decades, Europeans re-energized their defence integration with a set of new initiatives, such as permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF). It is therefore somewhat logical and far from unexpected that when Joe Biden emerged as the winner of the 2020 US presidential elections, there is yet again a heightened risk that Europeans would fall back into a lazy, self-defeating mindset of dependency on the US military shield. Breaking this pattern of reverse effects and avoiding European complacency is crucial for a healthy transatlantic partnership, but it requires concerted efforts on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

531. Towards cutting-edge European humanitarian leadership

Author:: Jean-Louis De Brouwer and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Added to the already enormous challenges faced by the humanitarian system and its constituent parts (proliferation of conflict and non-state actors, climate stress, mass migration, ...), the global Covid-19 pandemic coupled with repeated assaults on the basic tenets of multilateralism have brought existing systems to a breaking point, if not irrelevance. Traditional principled humanitarian positioning has fallen short of engaging with or addressing nefarious global political trends with dramatic effects. The result has been inequitable access to life saving support to those who need it most, risk transfers, and overall reduced capacity for aid agencies to meet growing challenges. A paradigm shift is needed. The imminent Communication of the European Commission on humanitarian aid is an opportunity to clarify perimeters, reaffirm with force the authority of IHL and take the measure of how much the EU can leverage support to strengthen principled humanitarian action across the world. It should set the frame to address structural tensions that require more thinking and interactions and create at EU level a space for non- institutional and informal dialogue.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, European Union, Leadership, Institutions, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

532. The EU and Russia: A New Foreign Policy for the “Carcass”?

Author:: Marc Franco
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Without any irony: the decision of High Representative (HR) Borrell to go to Moscow in early February was courageous and correct. The discussion on EU-Russia relations at the Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) of 22 February and the conclusions of that meeting were a success. But that does not mean that the EU should not drastically improve its foreign policy game.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

533. Toward a meaningful metric: replacing NATO’s 2% defence spending target

Author:: Leonard August Schuette
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The confluence of Joe Biden’s election to the White House, the likely ramifications of the pandemic for defence budgets, and unfolding EU and NATO strategic reflection processes offers a window of opportunity to replace NATO’s flawed 2% defence spending target. Europeans should credibly propose an output- oriented metric to reconstitute the transatlantic bargain on burden-sharing.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Military Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

534. EU and NATO Strategy: A Compass, a Concept, and a Concordat

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A concordat is an agreement between the church authorities and the state that regulates the activities of the former on the territory of the latter. Since both European Defence and the Transatlantic Alliance are churches with their zealous high priests and devoted believers, the term seems apt enough for the EU-NATO package deal that I propose in this paper. The coincidence that in 2021-2022 the EU is drafting a Strategic Compass and NATO a new Strategic Concept should be put to use to mend the schism between them. Can a miracle be worked?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

535. What Belgium Can Do: Proposals for the National Security Strategy

Author:: Sven Biscop and Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium has never had a National Security Strategy: a single strategic vision outlining how to safeguard its national interests from external threats and challenges and to prevent the exploitation of its internal vulnerabilities. Many in Belgium intuitively feel that none is needed: Are we not shielded by the EU and NATO? And what could the world expect from this small country anyway? But the fact is that the Kingdom of Belgium is not such a small player. The geopolitical heart, and the host, of the EU, it ranks 9th out of 27 in terms of population and GDP; worldwide, it is the 12th exporting country. Hence recurring tensions between Belgium’s own – often low – level of ambition as a security actor and the expectations of its allies and partners.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

536. A transition for the citizens? Ensuring public participation in the European Green Deal

Author:: Francesca Colli
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The EU acknowledges that citizen participation in the European Green Deal is vital to ensure the legitimacy of policies and public buy-in for climate measures. This policy brief examines specific options for public participation in policymaking – stakeholder consultation, citizens’ assemblies and local projects – and discusses the extent to which each is already included in the European Green Deal. Although the most effective public participation takes place at national, regional or local level, it should nonetheless be encouraged or coordinated by the EU. Currently, the mechanisms established by the EU appear to blend different types of public participation; however, a key issue that remains to be addressed is reaching groups that may otherwise be overlooked or fall through the cracks – particularly those with the most to lose in the transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Public Opinion, Green Technology, and Participation
Political Geography:: Europe

537. The external representation of the EU: A simple matter of protocol?

Author:: Francois Roux
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: “Sofagate” has brutally disclosed the internal divergences within the EU in the field of its external relations. Some tried to minimize this unfortunate incident as a mere breach of diplomatic protocol. However, several elements lead us to think that the issue at stake is a very political matter: the division of power between the President ofthe EU Commission and the President of the European Council concerning the external representation ofthe EU. Tensions between both presidents were predictable and identified as soon as the Lisbon Treaty came into force (see premonitory analysis written by Professor 1 NikiAloupiin2010) .The ambivalent language of the Lisbon treaty seems to be the main source of these tensions which had, until now, been contained. On 6 of April 2021, these misgivings became public as pictures of the Ankara meeting, amplified by social media, went viral. Considering the complex relationship between institutions and Member states as well as the harsh criticism from Euro sceptical populists, an institutional quarrel is the last thing the EU needs in these COVID-19 times. This awkward dispute undermines the ambitions for an efficient and coherent European foreign policy. This article focuses solely on the impact ofthe incident on the internal structure of the EU’s external representation. It provides an analysis of the dysfunction, why it happened, and how it could be fixed. This paper does not comment on the role of Turkish authorities or any other aspect of the “sofagate”.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

538. The EU and China: Sanctions, Signals, and Interests

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Sanctions are much easier to use against your allies than against your enemies. A friend will want to stay in your good books, and is much more likely to modify his behaviour than an adversary, who will probably just harden his resolve to outdo you. The Trump administration liberally used sanctions against allies in Europe and Asia, who did not exactly cave in but did not want things to escalate either.1 The US trade war with China, on the other hand, cost both sides dearly, without resolving anything. In a coordinated move with the US, the UK, and Canada, the EU has adopted sanctions against four Chinese officials and one entity for violating the human rights of the Uighur people in Xinjiang province.2 That is fully legitimate: as a union of democracies, the EU has a moral duty to speak up for human rights everywhere. But are sanctions the most effective way of doing so?
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

539. A New Start for EU-US relations?

Author:: Jim Cloos
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The election of President Biden was greeted by sighs of relief across Europe and offered the promise of a renewed relationship. The first hundred days in the office have been impressive. The tone vis-à-vis the EU has changed radically. New perspectives of cooperation are opening up, as set out in the Commission’s December communication on “EU-US: A new transatlantic agenda for global change”. For this to be fruitful two conditions need to be met. The first and most important one is linked to the capacity of the EU to deliver and to do what it takes to be a credible and strong partner. In this sense the future of the transatlantic partnership depends more on the European side than the American one. America is a super power and will remain one. And super powers only listen to other powers that are serious. But there is also a need for changes on the U.S side. The quiet assumption, so prevalent in the U.S, that it is natural for it to lead on all major issues and for the Europeans to follow will not stand up to the requirements of today. A strong partner can and will at times have different views and even different interests and should be allowed to defend them without being accused of jeopardizing the relationship.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

540. How the Strategic Compass can Incubate a European Prototype for Burden Sharing

Author:: Tania Latici
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Much ink has been spilled calling upon Europeans to do more for their defence in the context of the transatlantic relationship. “Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it”: it used to be a fitting expression for this conundrum – no more. The Strategic Compass process is an opportunity not only to decide what umbrellas to buy but when, how, and where to use them to protect against rain, hail, snow and even sunburn. There is a dissonance, however, between the political rhetoric about a complex and unpredictable security environment requiring a 360° defence and deterrence and the practice of measuring defence and deterrence. There is also a dissonance between advocates for a clear focus on NATO’s core business of territorial defence or for a more comprehensive Alliance contribution to security. This brief makes an argument firmly in favour of the latter with a focus on Europe’s contribution. It argues that the Strategic Compass process can be an incubator for a credible European prototype for burden sharing.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

541. ‘Greening’ the EU’s cultural diplomacy: Uncovering the potential of the culture-climate nexus

Author:: Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The EU made its first forays into the field of public and cultural diplomacy when the European External Action Service (EEAS) was created a decade ago. In 2016 the Joint Communication of the European Commission and the EEAS, titled ‘Towards an EU strategy for international cultural relations’,1 made further headway. The Communication and the accompanying preparatorystudies2 concludedthat enormouspotential existed for the EU’s cultural diplomacy, but that a strategy to realise that potential was lacking. This brief argues that the EU should use the momentum of post-COVID recovery for strategically aligning its cultural diplomacy with the climate and sustainability agenda.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Culture, European Union, Pandemic, Cultural Diplomacy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

542. How 2400 Pages of Tech Industrial Policy will change Transatlantic Relations

Author:: Tobias Gehrke
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The currently 2400-page long ‘US Innovation and Competition Act’ making its way through Congress is about one thing only: China. But it also signals a much broader shift in American geoeconomic strategy towards tech industrial policy which matters just as much for Europe. To avoid major rifts, tech industrial diplomacy will need to become a staple of transatlantic affairs.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Transatlantic Relations, Industry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

543. A Revised European Semester under Centralised Management: the Risk of Overlooking Social Policy

Author:: Marcel Muraille
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: By adopting a €750 billion recovery plan, European leaders intend to avoid a repeat of the controversial management of the Eurozone crisis and the lack of public investment it engendered. The European Commission has set up a new coordination process to steer public investments and reforms foreseen by the national recovery plans, leaving the fully fledged European Semester aside for an indefinite period. In its current form, however, the management of the recovery package does not offer as many social guarantees as the former Semester did. To mitigate its weak social safeguards, the European Commission must strengthen the role of social affairs actors in its monitoring process. The present policy brief assesses past and present social developments in the framework of the European Semester, and the lessons to be learned from them. Although this paper focuses on the dynamics within the European Commission, it should be noted that similar tensions between social and economic affairs actors also arise within the Council.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Social Policy, Investment, and Eurozone
Political Geography:: Europe

544. The Strategic Compass: Entering the Fray

Author:: Sven Biscop
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Strategic Compass for the EU’s security and defence policy, to be adopted in 2022, must generate immediate action. The best way of ensuring that is to prepare new capability initiatives and, potentially, new operational engagements now, so that they can be launched simultaneously with the Strategic Compass. In that light, “the development of an initial-entry force as a pool of Member State forces that train and exercise together and are made available to the EU” (as summarised in an EEAS working paper), is one of the most promising ideas on the table. How to make it work?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe

545. Seven Steps to European Defence, Transatlantic Equilibrium, and Global Europe

Author:: Jo Coelmont
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Panta rhei – everything flows (Heraclitus). Once again, geopolitics is in transition, and a new crossroads is being approached. While we already knew that global leadership is beyond any single country, now it appears to be beyond even any single continent – beyond an alliance of two continents even. This means that the old strategic truth, that the power that has Europe on its side has the potential to dominate the world, no longer holds. Europe no longer is the kingmaker. And that changes a lot, for the EU, the US, and the world.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

546. Readiness as a Mission: Implications for Belgian Defence

Author:: Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Readiness reflects the ability of the armed forces to accomplish their assigned tasks in time. Like many European counterparts, Belgian Defence disposes of some high readiness assets, but is lacking in readiness overall. This impacts its contribution to collective defence and its wider ability to support societal resilience. This Egmont Security Policy Brief explains the concept of readiness as a question of resource management and applies this to the ongoing defence review. Treating readiness as a meta- mission implies not only balancing the budgetary input parameters – investing in personnel, training, equipment and maintenance simultaneously – but also taking a selective approach towards operational engagement. Doing so will enable the force to regenerate as rapidly as possible, and boost Belgium’s ability to act both at home and abroad.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

547. #NATO2030: America’s Transatlantic Agenda

Author:: Robertas Sapronas
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy stood in stark contrast to the long-standing broad commitments that have traditionally underpinned relations between the US and its allies. It is no surprise that Joe Biden’s victory was met with sighs of relief in many NATO capitals. In the fifth of our series of policy briefs intended to shed light on some of the issues related to the Alliance’s further adaptation, Robertas Šapronas examines the challenges facing the Biden Administration in its efforts to rebuild the transatlantic relationship and America’s leadership of NATO.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

548. #NATO2030: Addressing the Burden-Sharing Challenge

Author:: Kristīne Rudzīte-Stejskala
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: NATO routinely measures and compares the national defence inputs and outputs of its members to assess how they share the burden of collective defence. It has always been apparent that by comparison with the US, Europe needs to do more, but NATO’s burden-sharing discussion is stuck on tired arguments about simple spending measures. In the sixth of our series of policy briefs intended to shed light on some of the issues related to the Alliance’s further adaptation, Kristīne Rudzīte-Stejskala of the Ministry of Defence of Latvia describes NATO’s burden-sharing debate and offers some new approaches.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

549. #NATO2030: Regional Cooperation for a Stronger NATO

Author:: Justyna Gotkowska
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The countries of central and eastern Europe have often worked together politically and militarily to advance their security interests vis-a-vis NATO. They have been most successful when they have had a clear goal, such as joining the Alliance in the late 1990s and early 2000s or ensuring that NATO would adopt robust enhancements to its deterrence posture following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014. In the seventh of our series of policy briefs intended to shed light on some of the issues related to the Alliance’s further adaptation, Justyna Gotkowska of the Centre for Eastern Studies argues that regional cooperation has given way to efforts to enhance bilateral relations with NATO’s larger Allies. But recent developments in Europe’s security environment and security thinking require the central and eastern European countries to step up their cooperation and to make sure that their voice is heard in NATO and the EU.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

550. #NATO2030: Towards a NATO China Strategy

Author:: Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: NATO’s search for a common, cohesive strategy towards China is among the challenges most likely to reveal deep fractures between the positions of the Allies. In the second of our series of policy briefs intended to shed light on some of the issues related to the Alliance’s further adaptation, Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs examines the Allies’ public statements on China to find the common ground that might form the backbone of a NATO Strategy for China, and the differences between them that still need to be addressed.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

551. #NATO2030: NATO’s Force Structure and Posture

Author:: Martin Hurt
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The forces and capabilities that will be available for NATO operations in 2030 have, to a great extent, already been decided through the NATO Defence Planning Process. It is now up to individual Allies to deliver on their commitments. In the third of our series of policy briefs intended to shed light on some of the issues related to the Alliance’s further adaptation, Martin Hurt of the ICDS looks at how NATO’s force structure and posture have evolved since the end of the Cold War, and outlines the challenges of the further modernisation necessary if NATO is to keep pace with an evolving security environment.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

552. Advancing the Role of the OSCE in the Field of Climate Security

Author:: Niklas Bremberg and Anniek Barnhoorn
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: This SIPRI Policy Brief assesses the role of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in the field of climate security, in terms of its current and possible future commitments. Despite growing political momentum among most OSCE participating states about the need to address the issue of climate security, there appear to be divergent views on how to move forward on this important issue. Based on an assessment of recent OSCE activities linked to climate-related security risks and interviews with representatives from OSCE participating states, this policy brief suggests four avenues for the OSCE to advance its role in the field of climate security: (a) agree to new commitments; (b) engage in agenda setting; (c) strengthen the mandate of institutions; and (d) develop existing resources.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe

553. Lithuania, China and EU lawfare to counter economic coercion

Author:: Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Without any formal notification, China recently declined customs clearances for shipments from Lithuanian firms in the pharmaceutical, electronics, and food sectors, and warned multinationals of secondary sanctions if they did not sever their ties with Lithuania. These covert actions were taken in response to Lithuania’s invitation to Taiwan, which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) claims as its own territory, to open a ‘representative office’ in Vilnius. No other country has ever found itself at the receiving end of such intense and politically motivated Chinese economic pressure. These actions on the part of the PRC are politically explosive because it raises serious questions about the international conduct of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). If it can simply wipe a country off its trade book, a state belonging to the EU’s customs territory no less, then what does it mean to be a member of the WTO, or a signatory to any other number of international agreements? And, given the lamentable state the WTO is in: could the European Commission’s newly proposed anti-coercion instrument bring any solace to Lithuania and the EU?
Topic:: Law, European Union, Economy, Trade, and Coercion
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Lithuania

554. EU defence projects: Balancing Member States, money and management

Author:: Dylan Macchiarini Crosson
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: European Defence Union (EDU) initiatives are proceeding at full steam ahead with the political backing of both the EU institutions and key Member States. The fourth wave of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) projects is but a recent example of such, with the Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space (DG DEFIS) set to dole out its first tranche of European Defence Fund (EDF) appropriations in the coming months. Alongside this, the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) annual defence data report has highlighted the progress made in EU-wide defence expenditure, despite the economic fallout from Covid-19. The framework guiding the consolidation of a dynamic and integrated European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB), however, requires some fine-tuning. If EDU initiatives are to incentivise more inclusive and better funded projects essential to remedying the shortfalls identified by the EDA’s Capability Development Priorities (CDPs), reducing the number of systems operated at EU level, and enhancing interoperability, then several key proposals outlined in this paper should be considered.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Money, Management, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

555. The missing anchor: Why the EU should join the CPTPP

Author:: Peter Draper and Naoise McDonagh
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a twenty-first century trade accord that aims to secure a level playing field and rules-based trade environment in the Indo-Pacific. Yet in the absence of the United States, it risks underachieving on this goal. The European Union (EU) is the only global actor with the trade preferences and requisite economic heft to provide a similar anchoring function for market-orientated trade as was envisioned for the United States in the CPTPP. An EU accession bid to the CPTPP would require overcoming major hurdles and reservations, not least in Brussels. The gains in surmounting them, however, would be considerable. Any EU accession process should avoid jeopardising the possibility of a return of the United States to the multilateral trade agreement. An equivalence regime for regulations where CPTPP members are not in alignment with EU standards could in principle open the possibility of the EU and the United States eventually co-habiting within the CPTPP, however remote or delayed the prospect. Australia should use its status as a founding CPTPP member to advocate for EU accession to the trade agreement. Engaging Europe on the future of the multilateral trade architecture in Asia presents a key area of potential convergence between Brussels and Canberra, following a setback in strategic ties caused by the Australian cancellation of a French-led submarine contract.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

556. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Poland

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This study assesses YouTube’s contribution to GDP and employment in Poland, and its broader impact on society and culture. YouTube enables Polish content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €98 million to the Polish economy in 2020 and supported 11,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can build skills and knowledge amongst users; enrich and promote Polish culture; and sustain careers for content creators. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19. Alongside the findings from our economic modelling and surveys, we present a series of case studies to highlight th the personal stories of successful Polish content creators.
Topic:: Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

557. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Spain

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: YouTube enables Spanish content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €313 million to the Spanish economy in 2020 and supported 21,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can sustain careers for content creators; build skills and knowledge amongst users; and promote Spanish culture to a global audience. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19. Alongside the findings from our economic modelling and surveys, we present a series of case studies to highlight the personal stories of successful Spanish content creators.
Topic:: Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

558. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Italy

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: YouTube enables Italian content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €190 million to the Italian economy in 2020 and supported 15,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can sustain careers for content creators; promote Italian culture to a global audience; drive cultural diversity; and support businesses. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19. Alongside the findings from our economic modelling and surveys, we present a series of case studies to highlight the personal stories of successful Italian content creators.
Topic:: Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

559. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Ireland

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: YouTube enables Irish content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €30 million to the Irish economy in 2020 and supported 1,600 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can build skills and knowledge amongst users; promote cultural diversity; and sustain careers for content creators. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19.
Topic:: Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Ireland

560. The European Union at a Crossroads: Unlocking Renewable Hydrogen’s Potential

Author:: Nicola De Blasio and Alejandro Nuñez-Jimenez
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: European countries are at a crossroads on their path to carbon neutrality. Today, they are at the forefront of the global clean hydrogen race but going forward they would be better served by collaborating instead of working alone. Overall, the European Union (EU) is highly competitive in clean technologies manufacturing and thus well-positioned to benefit from the emergence of global hydrogen markets. But a narrow focus on short-term cost considerations could drive member states to implement national roadmaps with little or no coordination among themselves and hence little or no chance of competing globally. As a bloc, the EU has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Clean hydrogen is a cornerstone of this transformational effort; accordingly, in July 2020, the EU adopted its hydrogen strategy with the ambition of deploying open and competitive clean hydrogen markets for all energy sectors and segments by 2050.1 Success hinges around implementing a cohesive long-term strategy to address a fundamental ques- tion and its associated challenges: where could the EU source competitive and secure renewable hydrogen supplies? As our previous research shows, all countries have access to renewable resources (such as solar or wind), to different degrees, and could produce some renewable hydrogen locally. However, while resource-rich countries, such as Spain, could evolve into regional exporters, no EU member state has the potential to become a global export champion. At the same time, North African countries, such as Morocco, are well-situated to act as key suppliers to the EU. Furthermore, imports from resource-rich regions like North America could help to address security of supply concerns.2 Today, EU hydrogen demand stands at 7.8 million tons per year (Mt/yr), equivalent to about 10% of global demand. Germany and the Netherlands are the largest consumers, accounting for over a third of EU demand, followed by Poland, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and France, which consume about 0.5 Mt/yr each.3 According to available projections, as hydrogen use grows across all economic sectors, EU hydrogen demand could reach 76 Mt/yr by 2050. But while the EU strategy sets clear targets on electrolyzer deployment by 2030, it provides very few details on how the bloc could meet demand—and at what cost—by 2050.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, European Union, Innovation, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

561. European defence: Specialisation by capability groups

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In many professions specialisation is regarded as a virtue. In a hospital the surgeon, the anaesthetist and the nurse have specialised skills. Together they engage in teamwork to cure patients. Yet, when it comes to defence, specialisation has a negative connotation. Contrary to the hospital’s operating theatre, dependency on each other’s armed forces is regarded as a serious, if not unacceptable risk, as a country has to be able to defend itself without relying on capabilities to be provided by other states. In reality, however, interdependence is a fact: European countries have relied on the nuclear deterrent of the United States since the 1950s and with regard to conventional forces, no single European country can provide all necessary capabilities. The question is how European interdependence can be made more effective. The answer must partly lie in specialisation. This Policy Brief addresses specialisation in security and defence from the perspective of the ‘Team Europe’ approach of distributing tasks and operating with varying coalitions of European countries in order to make the EU (and in this case also NATO) more effective. It presents a model of structuring European armed forces in specialised groups – an idea that has been proposed in a Clingendael report published earlier this year. First, the Policy Brief lays out the playing field by explaining the model of European capability groups. Next, several options for European capability groups will be proposed. It concludes with listing the implications for the Netherlands.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Specialization
Political Geography:: Europe

562. The RRF as administrative subsidiarity

Author:: Adriaan Schout
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: When the corona crisis broke out, it was clear that eurozone economies were ill prepared for new setbacks. Put differently, the SGP had failed to produce convergence. The RRF offers an opportunity to reconsider the effectiveness of economic governance and to strengthen national ownership for sound economic policies. Despite its potential merits, the RRF was not designed to reinforce national institutions to monitor and correct their own economic policies. Creating the required ownership for sound economic policies would have demanded empowering the independent National Productivity Boards (NPBs) and Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), and integrating them in a redesigned independent network-based European Fiscal Board (EFB). The failure in 2020 to include the NPBs, IFIs and the EFB also implies a major break with the Fiscal Compact, Two Pack and Six Pack that aimed at empowering national institutions. The RRF concerns a major financial commitment and could thus have been used as bargaining chip to strengthen the long-term reform measures by insisting on a subsidiarity-based European monitoring and enforcement system, including mutual inspections, and build around the nascent macroeconomic independent national and EU agencies. Such decentralized systems have proved their worth in successful European policy areas such as in monitoring the state of the environment in member states. This will have consequences for the organization of the EU Commission. Using the lessons from the RRF to (forget to) strengthen national institutions is also relevant for redesigning the SGP. Firstly, redesigning the NPBs, IFIs and EFB will offer a suitable model for monitoring national policies as a replacement of the current centralized control under the SGP by the Commission. Secondly, the future development of the RRF and NGEU can be used as bargaining chip in the negotiations on the SGP. The review of the SGP will involve adaptation of rules, reinstituting the ESM, and deciding on new emergency funds. The negotiations ahead offer opportunities and leverage for steering towards a pro-active and constructive role for the Netherlands in the elaboration of subsidiarity-based economic governance.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

563. Covid-19 prompts the EU and the Netherlands to rethink global health

Author:: Louise Van Schaik and Remco van de Pas
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic prompted a strong re-engagement in global health. Because the pandemic coincided with geopolitical rifts between the US and China, but required a global response, the EU and its member states took responsibility to safeguard the World Health Organization (WHO) and initiated global arrangements for vaccine sharing for developing countries. Within the EU, mandates and global health functions have traditionally been underdeveloped and divided between the development and health sectors. For the Netherlands, this is perhaps the case to an even larger extent. Development funding has focused primarily on sexual and reproductive health and rights, and the health ministry has had limited interest and capacity on international health issues, with the exception of certain specific issues such as Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR) and medicine prices. Spending on global health by both the EU and the Netherlands has been fragmented, with mainly ad hoc budgets being made available for the international pandemic response. This policy brief calls for a structural response and more coherent outlook on global health.
Topic:: Development, European Union, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

564. Turning EU green energy diplomacy into reality

Author:: Louise Van Schaik, Akash Ramnath, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In Spring 2022, the European Commission will present its International Energy Engagement strategy, which will undoubtedly reflect that the European Green Deal nowadays tops the Brussels agenda. From being a traditional buyer of fossil fuels, the EU is adapting to become an exporter of green energy solutions and, to some degree, an importer of green energy. At a time when energy prices are historically high and EU climate policy is accelerating, this policy brief analyses what a more pro-active EU green energy diplomacy could look like. In light of this shift, a review is made of which instruments the EU could deploy to support green energy transitions and discourage third countries from continuing extraction and production of fossil fuels. It recommends the EU takes a firm stance on phasing out fossil fuel and enter dialogue with some of its current fossil fuel suppliers on the implications of its own transition. The EU will need to establish new partnerships on green energy provision, technology and critical raw materials needed for the transition.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Green Deal, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

565. Towards More Effective Deradicalization: Urgent Recommendations for Addressing Violent Islamist Extremism

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Violent Islamist extremism is still one of the biggest threats to internal security as well as societal cohesion in the EU. As a crucial part of any comprehensive counterstrategy, tertiary prevention encompasses measures designed to encourage and support (violent) extremists in prison and in society to leave their milieus, deradicalize, decriminalize, and reintegrate into society.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, European Union, Islamism, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

566. 2021 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer

Author:: Elodie Hainard and Olena Shumska
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The 2021 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer—which scores the transparency of top and major exporters’ reporting on authorized arms trade activities carried out in 2018—finds Switzerland to be the most transparent small arms exporter. Countries scored an average of 12.61 points out of a maximum of 25, which is a slight increase of last year’s score (12.36). The most transparent countries are, in descending order: Switzerland (21.75 points), the Netherlands (21.00), Germany (20.25), Serbia (19.75), and the United Kingdom (19.50). Meanwhile, North Korea (0.00 points), Iran (0.00), Saudi Arabia (0.50), and Israel (3.00) remain the least transparent countries in terms of arms trade activities.
Topic:: Weapons, Transparency, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

567. Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK

Author:: Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The UK government’s vision for Global Britain aims to restore British greatness as a maritime trading nation. But this vision does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities, including the continuing importance of the EU. The Johnson government seems to need the perennial fights of a permanent Brexit, but this approach is eroding the UK’s capacity to cooperate with the EU on foreign and security policy. At the same time, as ECFR polling reveals, the British public do not have any particular animus towards the EU. While the public value British sovereignty and independence, they would support a foreign policy that worked cooperatively with the bloc. The public is on to something: Britain still has extraordinary assets and can forge an effective foreign policy. Yet, to do so, it must focus on British strengths, avoid military adventures in distant lands, and find balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US. British security and prosperity will increasingly depend on unromantic issues such as carbon tariffs and investment screening – on which the best way to protect British interests is to triangulate between the EU and US positions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

568. Russian Crisis Behavior, Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkey?

Author:: Richard Giragosian, David G. Lewis, and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:: On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan initiated a war to retake the disputed Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven districts of Azerbaijan held by Armenian forces.1 The forty-four-day war resulted in a resounding defeat for the Armenian forces and only halted with the acceptance of a Russian-imposed agreement for a cessation of hostilities on November 9-10, 2020. Although the war was initially expected to unfold as a war of attrition with an eventual stalemate based on the advantages of terrain of the Armenian defenders, reality differed in terms of duration, intensity, and outcome.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

569. The Impact of COVID-19 on Croatia’s Euro Adoption Strategy

Author:: Kristijan Kotarski
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: Is the euro a golden goose laying golden eggs? Well, certainly not, if one asks an average Greek or Italian whose countries have consistently faced lower GDP per capita levels than the level they last recorded back in 2008. On the of them introduced the common European currency in 2007 and 2009. Not only are their countries more prosperous, but the euro also enjoys high social support. The aforementioned and diametrically opposite experiences show that the euro is at times, and especially during economic downturns, an issue which arouses other hand, is the euro a stinging viper? Surely not, if one poses this question to an average Slovene or Slovak whose countries boast rapid economic catch-up with the EU’s average level of economic development, especially since bothof them introduced the common European currency in 2007 and 2009. Not only are their countries more prosperous, but the euro also enjoys high social support. The aforementioned and diametrically opposite experiences show that the euro is at times, and especially during economic downturns, an issue which arouses many controversies.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Adoption
Political Geography:: Europe and Croatia

570. EU and Russia: From a Partnership to a Rivalry

Author:: Jelena Jurisic
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: At the beginning of the 20th century Halford Mackinder was the first to write about a possibility of integrating Europe and Russia in his famous essay “Geographical Pivot of History.” The latter, on his map of natural crossroads of power, constituted the biggest portion of the “Pivot Area”, later dubbed “the Heartland”, while the former constituted the western part of the “Inner or Marginal Crescent.” Mckinder perceived that an alliance of Europe, as homeland of progress, and Russia, which throughout history influenced Europe by the vastness of its territory, could form the biggest center of power that would span between two oceans and dominate the world. A version of this continental connection was presented some 20 years later by Karl Haushofer who in the alliance of Germany, the Soviet Union and Japan saw a geopolitical force which could crush the domination of the Anglo-Saxon civilization. The next to grasp to the ideal of “Greater Europe” in the fifties was Charles de Gaulle who made a statement about a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.” With the political rapprochement of France and West Germany with the Warsaw Pact led by the USSR he wanted to distance the two for NATO and the dominance of the United States. In the late eighties is was Mikhail Gorbachev who spoke about The “Common European Home” as an ultimate goal of the process of integration, be it in the west as well as in the east of the old continent, in order to end their military and political confrontation through integration. Notwithstanding, with his appeasing foreign policy and wrong steps he achieved the opposite. With the disappearance of ideological chains between Russia and the West the idea of “Greater Europe’’ also ceased to exist. Moscow embarked on the process of democratization, and with it of rapprochement with the US and the EU, and in 1994 the EU–Russia partnership and cooperation agreement was signed. Four years later Boris Yeltsin hosted an informal summit with Helmut Kohl and Jacques Chirac, which resulted in creation of Paris-Berlin- Moscow axis. This axis lasted for just a few minutes as during the press conference the Russian president stated that Russia cannot become a member of the EU and NATO. Pale facial expirations of his guest indicated clearly their thoughts on this statement. Europe did not take seriously the wakened successor of the USSR.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

571. Thirty years of Visegrád Group

Author:: Ivan Iliev
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: In February 1991, at a meeting of the Czechoslovak, Polish and Hungarian presidents, the decision to create an alliance of three Central European countries was made. In 1993, the division of the Czech and Slovak Federal Republics and the establishment of in 1335, attended by King of Bohemia, King of Hungary and King of Poland. Hundreds of years later, former Communist-bloc countries in Central Europe desired to overcome historical animosities between states and nations in this region, believing that joint efforts of relatively small countries would make their goals more achievable. The V4 was also established because post-Communist countries realized that they the independent Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic transformed the tripartite cooperation into a four-party alliance - V4. The name refers to a meeting, which took place near Budapest (at the castle in Visegrád), Hungary, could together boost the socio-economic transformation and join the European Union. Indeed, the V4 has accelerated cooperation and boosted the friendship among the Central European states throughout the years. Today, V4 is a regional structure of four EU and NATO member states that in general share similar economic, cultural and social values. V4 members recognize it as the alliance that strengthens the coordination mechanism to find similar positions on European policy, foreign policy, economic or cultural cooperation, and regional development. Visegrád Group, or shortly called the V4, marks 30 years of existence this year. This unique sort of cooperation has achieved some crucial goals but also failed in reaching cooperation on some EU topics. In the following lines, we will look at these achievements and failures, but will also explain where Visegrád is today and what should be done in order to make this alliance of Central European countries functioning better.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic

572. Greece and Turkey: A Prime Example of a Complicated Relationship

Author:: Sofia Maria Satanakis
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The relations between Greece and Turkey are known to be historically tense and problematic. Despite being NATO allies, their relationship has been marked by various crises over the past decades and often caught the attention of the international community. Greece, on the intermittent military coups (1960, 1971, 1980), while as early as 1964, it became an associate member of the European Community; the goal being to ultimately join the ‘club’ – as Greece did back in 1981.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

573. The Era of German Chancellor Angela Merkel: What Was and What Remains?

Author:: Thomas Brey
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: After the general election in Germany at the end of September, Angela Merkel will step down as Chancellor at the age of 67. She held this most important political office in Germany for almost exactly 16 years (2005-2021). She will thus equal the record of her former political mentor and Chancellor Helmut Kohl (1982- 1998). In 2021, she was named “Most PowerfulForbes for the tenth time in a row. In 2015, the US magazine Time named her “Person of the Year” on its cover. Merkel has received the highest state honors from Italy to Peru, from Portugal to Israel. In 2011, she was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom - one of the two highest state decorations in the USA. The world’s honorary doctorates are legion. Merkel had a picture-perfect professional career, although by today’s standards she became politically active for the first time relatively late, at the age of 35. In the final phase of the GDR, she became involved in the opposition. As “Kohl’s girl” (“Kohls Mädchen”) she became Minister for Women’s Affairs as early as 1989, then Minister for the Environment (1994-1998), CDU General Secretary (1998-2000) and finally Party Chair (until 2018). She completed her studies in East Germany with a highly praised dissertation. When she became Chancellor in 2005, she was the first woman to hold the office and the first Chancellor from East Germany.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Hegemony, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

574. 2023: Turning Moment for European Energy Policy toward Balkans and the European Promotion of the Rule of Law

Author:: Aleksandar Kovacevic
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The year 2023 is likely to bring congruence of events that may cause a “perfect storm” of breaking down security of energy supply, fragile political stability in the Balkans and its unsustainable social contract. As the region grows fragmented from mid-1960’s till nowadays, very few economic forces remain the EU than among themselves. The terms of trade favor imports against exports. After 20 years of infrastructure development and integration efforts, with support of donors and creditors, despite small improvements; Logistic Performance Index (LPI) for the Balkan countries remains slightly over half of best performers such as Germany. Port resources in place that may cause such impact to entire region in the given moment of time. Cross border trade in goods and services is negligibly small. Countries trade more with the rest of are not allocated in line with the commercial practice. That is not good enough for the region that links Mediterranean with the landlocked Danube area. Travel time along major railway routes (Zagreb – Belgrade or Belgrade -Bar) are twice longer than during 1980’s. Belgrade Port, that is the key destination for transport with all sea ports in the region is constrained by the city planning and kept below minimum throughput to be reported in European inland port statistics. Croatia, Montenegro or Albania, are hardly in position to engage into trade as their ports operate far below competitive thresholds. The transactions are prohibitively expensive.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

575. Current State of Ukraine’s Play within the Geopolitical Map of Europe

Author:: Iuliia Osmolovska
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The beginning on November has been rich on worrysome developments in Eastern Europe and around Ukraine in particular. With reports of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) of continued and evergrowingnumberofceasefireviolationson the frontline in Donetsk and Lugansk regions - climbing to more than 750 daily on 12th and 13th November - satellite data on suspicious build-up of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border and respective US warning its EU allies of Russia’s potential invasion in Ukraine, migrant crisis on Polish-Belarussian border leading to aggressive land and aerial border patrol checks by joint Belarus and Russia military forces - the whole security landscape of Eastern Europe becomes ever more shaky and troublesome. Spiced up with undeclared energy war in Europe and Troyan Horse of Nord Stream 2, muscle stretching in the Black Sea, still-to-be-defined political configuration and policies of the new German government, turbulent presidential run-up France, everything leads to ideal mulled waters for perfect fishing. At first glance, all the mentioned presents rather gloomy picture of unfavorable setting, in which Ukraine has to operate nowadays. Russia seemingly has a tactical upper hand it its confrontation with the West and enjoys this advantage. Yet, this could be true, if we ignore some fundamental systemic changes. They are firmly shaping irreversibility of Ukraine’s pro- Western orientation and ever further steady integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures, thus leaving tiny fading prospect for potential return of Ukraine into Russian orbit of influence. Recent poll data demonstrate that 62% of Ukrainians support the country’s integration into the EU, while 58% support Ukraine’s membership in NATO. The number of Ukrainians, who see better guarantees in Ukraine’s membership in NATO has risen to 55% in 2020 (compared to 26% for neutral status and 5% for a military union with Russia and other CIS countries).
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

576. AUKUS Security Pact: Setting the Rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The announcement of the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known by the acronym AUKUS, intended to enhance cooperation between the three countries in the Indo- Pacific region in defense and security, has sent shockwaves throughout the world, especially the UK for the Royal Navy of Australia. The nuclear fueled submarines will be armed by conventional weapons, the number of acquired vessels will be at least eight, and as a typically Australian request, part of the vessels will be constructed in Australia’s naval shipyards. So far, the US, the UK, Russia, China, France in China and Europe. The key element of the AUKUS pact, signed on 15th September 2021, is the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the US and and India are the only six countries that have commissioned nuclear-powered submarines. Furthermore, before signing the AUKUS pact, the UK was the only country in the world with which the US was sharing the nuclear propulsion technology, under the Mutual Defense Agreement signed back in 1958. The supply of Australia with British and American nuclear-powered attack submarines, as the most delicate part of the AUKUS pact, attracted by far the most of media attention and provoked China’s aggressive reaction. Even more, the three nations security pact, which is in principal intended to bring “enhanced trilateral security partnership for the 21st century”, has made Beijing particularly worried as China fears that this triple alliance is pointed directly against it. The three countries intend to step up their cooperation in the security and defense sector, and apart from cooperation in industrial production of new military equipment, AUKUS also envisages a broad cooperation in the fields where the three countries feel particularly threatened by China’s staggering growth, and they include cyber security, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Alliance, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: United States, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, and Indo-Pacific

577. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Systemic Racism, International Discrimination, and Inequities in France's Healthcare System

Author:: Sherihane Bensemmane, Yasmine El Addouli, and Saara Bouhouche
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: This first policy paper launches the RAP Initiative’s policy papers series Institutional Racism and Discrimination in Healthcare Systems Globally, which will continue to be published over the coming months. The series explores how racism and discrimination affect communities of color’s health, security, and quality of life across the world, particularly for women and girls, and what we can do to ensure more equality, equity, and justice for all.
Topic:: Health, Discrimination, Intersectionality, Racism, and Systemic Racism
Political Geography:: Europe and France

578. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Taking Stock of Europe’s New Trade Policy Strategy

Author:: Fredrik Erixon
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief takes stock of the EU Trade Policy Review – the Commission’s proposed strategy for trade. Despite appearances, the Review doesn’t come close to its billing as a strategy for the new geopolitics of trade. In fact, the Review is weak on key geopolitical developments and rather gives the impression that the EU doesn’t have an ambition to shape outcomes. Obviously, the Review is anchored in Europe’s general economic climate: defensiveness on globalization, competition and digitalization. It follows that Europe is getting increasingly detached from world developments. There are several good parts in the Review. The Commission wants to revive and reform the World Trade Organisation, and it’s clear about what factors that have made the Geneva-based trade body dysfunctional. The Review also acknowledges that the EU will seek a closer alliance with the United States and use that for constructive purposes. Finally, it is welcome that the Commission proposes some new instruments for dealing with market distortions caused by foreign subsidies and protectionism in government procurement. All these initiatives can achieve good outcomes. However, they all require that Europe makes changes in its own policies and positions. The bad parts in the Review are Europe’s weak agenda for getting better market access in the growth regions in the world and its continued passivity on matters related to China. Europe’s main trade-policy challenge in the next decade is to ensure that businesses and consumers in Europe get better integrated with a world-market dynamism that predominantly will come from the Asian region. Absent a realistic and medium-term strategy for dealing with challenges connected to the rise of China, Europe will have difficulties getting the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment approved. Europe needs an actionable agenda for addressing bilateral frictions with China and problems that occur outside bilateral trade. Finally, the ugly part of the trade strategy are all the commercial policies in the EU – with strong effects on trade – that aren’t recognized or only casually mentioned in the Review. The latter category includes the ambition to introduce an autonomous carbon border tax on imports. Such a policy comes at a high political and economic cost, and the measure’s effect on reducing global carbon emissions is at best very negligible.
Topic:: Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Geopolitics, Digital Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

579. Combating Unsafe Products: How to Improve Europe’s Safety Gate Alerts

Author:: Joana Purves and William Echikson
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The European Union has built a one-stop-shop for its member state regulators to post product safety notifications – Safety Gate (European Commission 2021d). Constructed on top of the Rapid Alert System for Dangerous Non-Food Products, or RAPEX, the Safety Gate web portal is designed to make public the “quick exchange of information” between 31 European countries and the European Commission “about measures taken against dangerous non-food products.” While Safety Gate represents a significant achievement, our research revealed areas for improvement to increase its utility for manufacturers, marketplaces and consumers. Many product notifications published on the website lack details required to facilitate speedy removals and recalls. The study graded eight essential criteria for a total of 918 Safety Gate notifications published over eight months in 2020. The average notification score was a respectable 70 out of 100, but over 98% of the notifications omitted at least one key criterion. Only 14 notifications included all the information to enable efficient and accurate product identification.
Topic:: Health, Food, European Union, and Regulation
Political Geography:: Europe

580. “Too Big to Care” or “Too Big to Share”: The Digital Services Act and the Consequences of Reforming Intermediary Liability Rules

Author:: Fredrik Erixon
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This paper reviews the Digital Services Act (DSA), a package of new rules for platforms proposed by the European Commission late last year. The paper takes stock of current and future situations for rules on content moderation and takedowns, and discusses how the DSA addresses the balance between the desired culture of openness online, on the one hand, and more pressures to take down not just illegal but harmful and objectionable content, on the other hand. The DSA introduces a few new transparency rules that follow previous codes of conduct: they are straightforward and desirable. However, it also brings in new know-your-customer rules and exacerbate the ambiguity surrounding the definition of illegal content. These types of rules will most likely have the effect that platforms will minimize risk even more by taking down more content that is legal. Moreover, there is a risk that the DSA will create new access barriers to platforms – with the result of making it difficult for smaller sellers to engage in contracts on platforms. New regulatory demands to monitor and address “systemic risks” will likely have the same effect: platforms will reduce their exposure to penalty risks by taking down and denying access for content that is legal but associated with risks. The DSA’s differentiation between large platforms and very large platforms is disingenuous and contradicts the purpose of many DSA rules. Obviously, exposing some platforms to harder rules will lead to content offshoring – a trend that is already big. Objectionable content – not to mention illegal content – will move from some platforms to others and lead extremists and others to build online environments where there is much mess content moderation. Furthermore, the new regulatory risks that come with being a very large platform will likely become an incentive for some large platforms to stay large – and not become very large. While the DSA is often billed as a package of regulations that will reduce the power of big platforms, it is more likely to lead to the exact opposite. Very large platforms have all the resources needed to comply with the new regulation while many other platforms don’t. As a result, the incumbency advantages of very large platforms are likely to get stronger.
Topic:: Culture, Digital Economy, Internet, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

581. What is Wrong with the German Economy? The Case for Openness to Technology and Human Capital

Author:: Philipp Lamprecht
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Advanced economies like Germany need to focus more on attracting foreign high-skilled labour and become better at importing foreign technology and business models. This might not sit well with current thinking of economic sovereignty in Berlin, but it is a necessary step for improving technology-penetration, competitiveness and productivity. Supply of high-skilled labour is getting more difficult to obtain and the cost of generating and adopting new ideas is increasing. Policymakers need to create the right conditions to open their markets to foreign technology and high-skilled labour. But openness alone is only a necessary condition – not a sufficient one. Policymakers also need to focus on creating the right environment domestically to attract a specialised and highly-skilled labour force, despite fierce competition from around the globe. The crucial question is to what extent companies make use of innovation capacities that can be obtained from international recruitment. Our analysis focuses on what German policymakers can do to increase openness for, and its attractiveness to, the high-skilled labour. Germany’s policy framework should focus on public policy initiatives aimed at increasing the incentives and removing obstacles for firms to attract the global high-skilled labour force. To stay attractive, Germany’s policies should also target issues of bottleneck regulation to facilitate field-testing new technologies and to support innovation sandbox processes of companies. And German policies should focus on the regulatory environment, notably the type of regulations that policymakers pursue. Many current regulations in Germany do not sufficiently allow for experimentation of technologies and ideas.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Regulation, Human Capital, Innovation, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

582. Digital Futures for Europe

Author:: Meelis Kitsing
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: There isn’t one model for success in the digital future; there are many. Europe is now debating what policies that could help to power entrepreneurship and growth in Europe’s economy, and some are arguing that Europe should make itself technologically sovereign – independent from the big platforms from the US. This is not the right approach – partly because there cannot be just one model applied in Europe if it is to become more successful in technology and competitiveness. This briefing paper argues that is far more important for Europe to create a better environment for companies to experiment and discover with new business models, and to learn from the past platform success while they do so. That requires a much greater space for entrepreneurship and that the EU and national governments stay away from excessive regulations that strain new business growth. Europe can be a powerful region that shapes rules and standards globally – “the Brussels effect”. But that isn’t the future for Europe if it ensnares entrepreneurs in red tape – “the Brussels defect”.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Digital Economy, Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

583. Covid-19 and the Danger of Self-sufficiency: How Europe’s Pandemic Resilience was Helped by an Open Economy

Author:: Johan Norberg
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: During the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe has benefitted strongly from being an open economy that can access goods and services from other parts of the world. Paradoxically, some politicians in Europe think that dependence on foreign supplies reduced the resilience of our economy – and argue that Europe now should wean itself off its dependence on other economies. In this Policy Brief, it is argued that self-sufficiency or less economic openness is a dangerous direction of policy. It would make Europe less resilient and less capable of responding to the next emergency. It is key that people, firms and governments can get supplies from other parts of the world. It is diversification, not concentration of production, that will make Europe more resilient when the next emergency hit. We don’t know where the next crisis will come from. Nature will throw nasty surprises at us, and we will make stupid mistakes, some of which will have devastating consequences. What we do know, though, is that we stand a better chance to fight the next emergency if we get richer and improve our technology. The best policy for resilience is one that encourages specialisation and innovation – and, when the emergency hit, allow for people to improvise in search for solutions. For that to happen, we need openness to goods, services and technology from abroad.
Topic:: Health, International Political Economy, Innovation, Economic Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

584. The EU Green Deal and Its Industrial and Political Significance

Author:: Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The European Green Deal, the flagship initiative of the incumbent European Commission, aims to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 55% by 2030 (from the current target of cutting 40% of 1990 levels) by overhauling fiscal, trading and regulatory regimes. Brussels is well-placed to deliver the interregional distribution or the minutiae of technical regulations that this challenge calls for. Energy diversification is also central to EU competitiveness and strategic autonomy. But this initiative is not costless: its official impact assessment points to a GDP loss of additional -0.3 to -0.7%, by 2030, relative to the previous level of ambition. The full loss could be up to -2.5%. These costs are also unevenly, and the inability to cushion asymmetrical shocks have nearly torn the Union apart in the past. A carbon-neutral Europe could also make losers out of today’s winners among stakeholders and give the EU a significantly different industrial structure, forcing over-exporting Northern Europe into reforms that are probably overdue. Most importantly, the gap between the financing needed and the financing available is unprecedented. The success of the European Green Deal and a cost-efficient transition hinge on the rapid and effective mobilisation of investments – as the diffusion period for new energy-related technology is 40-50 years. Therefore, a smart climate policy does not just distribute costs and investments between different groups, but also over time: The investments are needed now, if we are to reap their benefits before 2050.
Topic:: Environment, Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, European Union, Green Technology, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Europe

585. Will industrial and agricultural subsidies ever be reformed?

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Open Sub-navigation BackOpen Sub-navigation Publications Back Policy Briefs Working Papers Books PIIE Briefings Open Sub-navigation Commentary Back Op-Eds Testimonies Speeches and Papers Topics & Regions PIIE Charts What Is Globalization? Educational Resources Open Sub-navigation Back Senior Research Staff Research Analysts Trade Talks Open Sub-navigation Back RealTime Economic Issues Watch Trade & Investment Policy Watch China Economic Watch North Korea: Witness to Transformation 中文 Open Sub-navigation Back All Events Financial Statements Global Connections Global Economic Prospects Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lectures Trade Winds Open Sub-navigation Back News Releases Multimedia Media Center Open Sub-navigation Back Board of Directors Staff Employment Contact Annual Report Transparency Policy POLICY BRIEF VIEW SHARING OPTIONS Will industrial and agricultural subsidies ever be reformed? Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Policy Brief21-5 March 2021 Photo Credit: REUTERS/Denis Balibouse One economic argument for government subsidies is that they are necessary to compensate firms and industries for benefits they provide to society at large but cannot capture in the prices they charge for goods or services. For example, subsidies to renewable energy are defended because renewable energy limits carbon emissions. When a major economy subsidizes extensively, however, its trading partners are drawn into the game, with losses all around. As the prisoner’s dilemma suggests, a better outcome would entail mutual restraint. But the goal of mutual restraint is no less difficult in international trade than it is in international arms control. Both the European Union and the US federal system try, in different ways, to regulate industrial subsidies. Hufbauer examines efforts to contain unjustifiable subsidies and proposes modest improvements, bearing in mind that as countries struggle to overcome the global economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is little appetite for restoring a free market economy—one in which firms compete with minimum government assistance or regulation. Selective upgrading of the rulebook may nevertheless be possible.
Topic:: Agriculture, Government, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Manufacturing, Industry, COVID-19, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

586. At the Nexus of Participation and Protection: Protection-Related Barriers to Women’s Participation in Northern Ireland

Author:: Catherine Turner and Aisling Swaine
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The protection of women in armed conflict and their participation in peace and security activities are central pillars of the women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda. Overall, however, the WPS agenda has overlooked the relationship between participation and protection. This perpetuates a false binary between the participation of women as leaders with agency and the protection of women as victims of conflict. It also misses the gendered, context-specific, and conflict-related protection risks that accompany women’s participation. Finally, it overlooks the critical link between the harms women experience and their low levels of representation. This paper considers the intersection between women’s participation and protection in the context of Northern Ireland. While often assumed to be free of “global policy” concerns such as WPS, Northern Ireland starkly illustrates the intrinsic connections and tensions between women’s leadership and protection in conflict and post-conflict situations. After providing an overview of these connections and tensions more broadly, this paper examines the participation and protection of women in Northern Ireland since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. It draws from twenty-five semi-structured interviews with women in leadership positions in Northern Ireland. The paper concludes that gender inequalities and gendered insecurities intersect with sectarianism, the legacy of violence, and political crises arising from power-sharing arrangements under the peace agreement. These, in turn, intersect with emerging technologies such as social media to stymy women’s participation across all areas of post-conflict political life. While these findings underscore the continued relevance of the WPS agenda, they also signify that deeper engagement with gendered protection issues is required if the agenda is to substantively advance women’s equality and participation in the longer term.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe and Northern Ireland

587. The Dominance Dilemma: The American Approach to NATO and its Future

Author:: Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Despite the Biden administration’s push to revitalize U.S. alliances, U.S. relations with NATO are due for a reset. The United States should incentivize European members of NATO to take on additional responsibilities for their defense. Encouraging the European allies to take initiative will help the United States focus on its other domestic and international priorities and may facilitate improving relations with Russia. This approach will also prove attractive to European states concerned about the future direction of U.S. foreign policy. Recalibrating the U.S. role in Europe would conform with the United States’ post–World War II efforts to stabilize European security — and stand as the fruit of Washington’s success in this regard.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Global Focus

588. Commercialisation contracts: European support for low-carbon technology deployment

Author:: Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Many of the technologies that can help the European Union become a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 have been shown to work but are not yet commercially competitive with incumbent fossil-fuel technologies. There is not enough private investment to drive the deployment of new low-carbon alternatives. This is primarily because carbon prices are neither high enough nor stable. There are a number of benefits from the deployment of low-carbon technologies that private firms do not factor in. These include the benefits of decreasing industry-wide costs over time, and the global climate benefits from the development of low-carbon technologies within the EU that can subsequently be exported. The result is an investment level below the socially optimal value in the EU. Commercialisation contracts could be implemented as a temporary measure to remove the risk associated with uncertain carbon prices for ambitious low-carbon projects. The aim of the contracts would be to increase private investment to the socially optimal level. Contracts would be allocated through auctions in which fixed prices for abated emissions over a fixed duration would be agreed on a project-by-project basis. On an annual basis, public subsidies amounting to the difference between the agreed carbon price and the actual EU carbon price would be provided to investors, depending on the total carbon emissions abated. As long as EU carbon prices are low, investors would receive larger subsidies to ensure their competitiveness. Contracts would be auctioned at EU level. This would generate increased competition compared to national auctions, leading to more efficient outcomes and preventing fragmentation of the single market. From about €3 billion to €6 billion would be provided to the main industrial emitting sectors annually, with the amount reducing as the EU carbon price rises and low-carbon technologies become competitive without subsidy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Investment, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Europe

589. Europe should not neglect its capital markets union

Author:: Maria Demertzis, Marta Dominguez-Jimenez, and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union’s capital markets remain very underdeveloped compared to the United States. The market for equity, as measured as the size of the total market capitalisation of listed domestic firms relative to GDP, is much larger in the US and in Japan than in Europe.
Topic:: European Union, GDP, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, and United States of America

590. Blending the physical and virtual: a hybrid model for the future of work

Author:: Monika Grzegorczyk, Mario Mariniello, Laura Nurski, and Tom Schraepen
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The pandemic has shown that many workers can efficiently work remotely, with benefits for wellbeing and even productivity. The European Union should develop a framework to facilitate hybrid work.
Topic:: European Union, Work Culture, Innovation, Strategic Competition, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

591. The great COVID-19 divergence: managing a sustainable and equitable recovery in the European Union

Author:: Gregory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis, and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the biggest global recession since the Second World War. Forecasts show the European Union underperforming economically relative to the United States and China during 2019-2023. Southern European countries have been particularly strongly affected. While the ICT sector has benefitted from the COVID-19 crisis, tourism, travel and services have suffered. Business insolvencies have, paradoxically, fallen. While total employment has almost recovered, the young and those with low-level qualifications have suffered employment losses. Inequality could rise. The pandemic may lead to medium to long-term changes in the economy, with more teleworking, possibly higher productivity growth and changed consumer behaviour. Policymakers must act to prevent lasting divergence within the EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout from the pandemic. The first priority is tackling the global health emergency. Second, we warn against premature fiscal tightening and recommend instead additional short-term support from national budgets. Over the medium term, fiscal policymakers will need to gradually move away from supporting companies through subsidies, towards tax incentives for corporate investment. A review of the European fiscal framework is needed to achieve the EU’s green goals more rapidly. The quality of public finances, how policymakers spend resources and the associated reforms are of central importance to prevent scarring. Improving the efficiency of insolvency procedures will be crucial for speedy and effective recovery. Targeted labour market policies for the young and less-qualified are needed. As teleworking becomes a more permanent feature of the EU’s labour markets, it will be crucial to adapt social security and taxation systems in the context of the single market for labour. The EU should resist protectionist calls in the wake of the pandemic. Rigorous competition policy enforcement and an integrated EU market have been beneficial for European convergence and growth. Capital markets have an important role to play in a speedy recovery.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Inequality, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

592. How difficult is China’s business environment for European and American companies?

Author:: Uri Dadush and Pauline Weil
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Despite tensions over China’s discriminatory business practices, China’s trade continues to thrive, and the country has taken over from the United States as the first destination for foreign investment. American and European businesses continue to be engaged in China’s large and growing market, even amid a trade war between China and the United States. Drawing on surveys of companies and international comparisons, we show that – contrary to the prevailing narrative – China’s business practices have improved significantly in recent years. China’s business environment is today generally more favourable than that in other large countries at similar levels of development and, in some though certainly not all aspects, is in line with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average. Differences over geopolitics and human rights must be addressed, but it is clear that trade and investment agreements conditioned on accelerated reforms in China would yield substantial dividends. The benefits of such deals would accrue not only to foreign investors in China and exporters to China, but also to consumers and importers in the European Union and, especially, in the US, where punitive tariffs on China remain in effect. Critical aspects in the negotiations would include better access for American and European investors to China’s market for services and improved enforcement of rules and regulations in China. As in many middle-income countries, uneven enforcement of the law (rather than the law itself) remains a critical problem in China.
Topic:: Development, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Business, and Investment
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

593. Accounting for climate policies in Europe’s sovereign debt market

Author:: Marta Dominguez-Jimenez and Alexander Lehmann
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: International debt investors increasingly demand assets that are aligned with environmental, social and governance objectives. Sovereign debt is being belatedly swept up in this change. This huge asset class represents a uniquely long-term claim and funds a wide range of public expenditure, both brown and green. Public capital expenditures will be a central part of the roughly €3 trillion investment budget needed to pay for the European Green Deal. European Union countries have so far met investor appetite for climate-aligned assets through sovereign green bonds, the issuance of which has rapidly grown since 2017. The EU itself will also issue green bonds in large volumes. However, because of some inherent flaws in such instruments and as their still-weak frameworks, these bonds are unlikely to meet the environmental criteria demanded by investors, and will complicate established principles in sovereign debt management. Much more comprehensive information is needed on the climate related aspects of the public budgets of EU countries. Greater transparency in this respect would support stability and improve the functioning of capital markets, given that sovereign debt plays a pivotal role in all investor portfolios and also in regulatory and monetary policy. Adoption by sovereign issuers of green budgeting principles, based on a common taxonomy of sustainable activities, would enhance transparency. It could also be driven by investors who, under new EU rules, must disclose the climate-related aspects of all financial instruments offered in the capital market.
Topic:: Climate Change, Debt, Markets, Sovereignty, European Union, Finance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

594. Navigating through hydrogen

Author:: Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Hydrogen is seen as a means to decarbonise sectors with greenhouse gas emissions that are hard to reduce, as a medium for energy storage, and as a fallback in case halted fossil-fuel imports lead to energy shortages. Hydrogen is likely to play at least some role in the European Union’s achievement by 2050 of a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target. However, production of hydrogen in the EU is currently emissions intensive. Hydrogen supply could be decarbonised if produced via electrolysis based on electricity from renewable sources, or produced from natural gas with carbon, capture, and storage. The theoretical production potential of low-carbon hydrogen is virtually unlimited and production volumes will thus depend only on demand and supply cost. Estimates of final hydrogen demand in 2050 range from levels similar to today’s in a low-demand scenario, to ten times today’s level in a high-demand scenario. Hydrogen is used as either a chemical feedstock or an energy source. A base level of 2050 demand can be derived from looking at sectors that already consume hydrogen and others that are likely to adopt hydrogen. The use of hydrogen in many sectors has been demonstrated. Whether use will increase depends on the complex interplay between competing energy supplies, public policy, technological and systems innovation, and consumer preferences. Policymakers must address the need to displace carbon-intensive hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen, and incentivise the uptake of hydrogen as a means to decarbonise sectors with hard-to-reduce emissions. Certain key principles can be followed without regret: driving down supply costs of low-carbon hydrogen production; accelerating initial deployment with public support to test the economic viability and enable learning; and continued strengthening of climate policies such as the EU emissions trading system to stimulate the growth of hydrogen-based solutions in the areas for which hydrogen is most suitable.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

595. Is the European Union’s investment agreement with China underrated?

Author:: Uri Dadush and André Sapir
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union is very open to foreign direct investment. By comparison, despite considerable liberalisation in the past two decades, foreign investors in China’s markets still face significant restrictions, especially in services sectors. Given this imbalance, the EU has long sought to improve the situation for its companies operating or wanting to operate in China. After eight years of negotiations, the EU and China concluded in December 2020 a bilateral Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). The text awaiting ratification aims to give foreign investors greater market access, enforceable via state-to-state dispute settlement. It does not yet, however, cover investor protection (such as against expropriation). Meanwhile, investor protection is covered by bilateral investment treaties between EU countries and China, which remain in force. The CAI has been met in some quarters with scepticism on economic and geopolitical grounds. The main criticism is that it provides little new market access in China, and that this small economic gain for the EU comes at the price of breaking ranks with its main political ally, the United States. Our assessment, which focuses on the economic implications, is different. It is true the CAI provides only modest new market access in China, but this is because China has already made progress in recent years in liberalising its foreign investment regulations unilaterally. The CAI binds this progress under an international treaty, marking an improvement for EU firms insofar as their market access rights can be effectively enforced. Most important, the CAI includes new rules on subsidies, state-owned enterprises, technology transfer and transparency, which will improve effective market access for EU firms operating in China. These bilateral new rules could also pave the way for reform of the multilateral rules under the World Trade Organisation, with the aim of better integrating China into the international trading and investment system – a goal shared by the EU, the United States and other like-minded countries. From an economic viewpoint therefore, the CAI is an important agreement, and one worth having. However, its ratification by the European Parliament is unlikely while China continues to apply sanctions against some members of the European Parliament and other critics of China’s human rights record.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Investment, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: China and Europe

596. A whole-economy carbon price for Europe and how to get there

Author:: Ottmar Edenhofer, Mirjam Kosch, Michael Pahle, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Putting carbon pricing at the centre of the EU climate policy architecture would provide major benefits. Obtaining these benefits requires a uniform, credible and durable carbon price – the economic first-best solution, however, several preconditions required to attain this solution are not yet met. This paper proposes a sequenced approach to ensure convergence of the policy mix on the first-best in the long run.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe

597. Low interest rates in Europe and the US: one trend, two stories

Author:: Maria Demertzis and Nicola Viegi
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In both Europe and the United States, interest rates have been declining for more than fifteen years. For much of this period, real interest rates have been negative and they are expected to remain negative for at least another decade. The literature associates this decline in interest rates with a similarly protracted decline in productivity. But the decline in productivity appears paradoxical given major technological advances. The decline in the price of capital is underpinned by the factors that have caused a decline in demand for capital, as well as a relative increase in its supply. On the supply side, aging and an increase in overall macroeconomic risk since the financial crisis have both led to increased savings. On the demand side, the increase in the importance of intangible capital in production has reduced the demand for physical capital. Nevertheless, for the US, the literature has identified the increase in market concentration as the biggest factor responsible for the reduction in the overall demand for capital. Digital innovation has led to the creation of champion firms that have captured big market shares and have been able to prevent others from entering not only the US market, but markets globally. This has dampened investment. Europe is affected by US digital dominance, but other factors, including aging and increased risk, are more prominent in sustaining the downward pressure on interest rates. In particular, the lack of risk capital, in the context of capital markets, contributes to this downward pressure in the EU. As the knowledge economy relies increasingly on intangible capital, a bank-based system that requires collateral is not well suited to finance investments. A lack of suitable finance will remain an important factor in the downward pressure on interest rates. The structural factors behind the downward pressure on interest rates imply that macroeconomic policy will have a reduced role in managing aggregate demand. Monetary policy in the euro area will be more about preventing financial fragmentation and less about stimulating demand. Equally, fiscal policy will have more of a supporting rather than stimulating role. Tackling the structural decline in market dynamism and therefore in real rates will require structural policies to reduce market power globally and ensure the creation of capital markets in the EU.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Governance, European Union, Finance, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

598. The geopolitics of the European Green Deal

Author:: Mark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions. The Green Deal will affect geopolitics through its impact on the EU energy balance and global markets; on oil and gas-producing countries in the EU neighbourhood; on European energy security; and on global trade patterns, notably via the carbon border adjustment mechanism. At least some of these changes are likely to impact partner countries adversely. The EU needs to wake up to the consequences abroad of its domestic decisions. It should prepare to help manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal. Relationships with important neighbourhood countries such as Russia and Algeria, and with global players including the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, are central to this effort, which can be structured around seven actions: Help neighbouring oil and gas-exporting countries manage the repercussions of the European Green Deal. The EU should engage with these countries to foster their economic diversification, including into renewable energy and green hydrogen that could in the future be exported to Europe. Improve the security of critical raw materials supply and limit dependence, first and foremost on China. Essential measures include greater supply diversification, increased recycling volumes and substitution of critical materials. Work with the US and other partners to establish a ‘climate club’ whose members will apply similar carbon border adjustment measures. All countries, including China, would be welcome to join if they commit to abide by the club’s objectives and rules. Become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, particularly in hydrogen and green bonds. Requiring compliance with strict environmental regulations as a condition to access the EU market will be strong encouragement to go green for all countries. Internationalise the European Green Deal by mobilising the EU budget, the EU Recovery and Resilience Fund, and EU development policy. Promote global coalitions for climate change mitigation, for example through a global coalition for the permafrost, which would fund measures to contain the permafrost thaw. Promote a global platform on the new economics of climate action to share lessons learned and best practices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

599. The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD

Author:: Gregory Claeys and Maria Demertzis
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Productivity growth in Europe has been on a downward trend for several decades. Given that productivity growth is a crucial source of output growth, particularly in an aging society like the European Union, it is crucial to understand what is driving this slowdown and what the potential consequences are for our economic model and for citizens’ welfare. Some explanations for this trend are global in nature, but there are also significant differences in country structures in Europe that have led to different outcomes and that need to be accounted for before policy prescriptions can be made. The objective of MICROPROD, an EU-wide research project that runs until the end of 2021, is to contribute to this research strand by using data from various European countries to study the microeconomic mechanisms behind this macroeconomic phenomenon. In particular, the aim is to understand the challenges posed to Europe by the fourth industrial revolution and its impact on productivity in the context of globalisation and digitalisation, and to recommend policies to address these challenges. MICROPROD researchers have so far delivered 20 papers on four broad issues relevant for today’s policy debates: the measurement and effects of intangible capital on productivity; the impact of globalisation, international trade and the integration of global value chains (GVCs) on productivity; factor allocation and allocative efficiency; and finally the social consequences of the two structural shocks Europe has faced in the last two decades: globalisation and technological progress. This Policy Contribution reviews the main conclusions of these 20 MICROPROD papers and how they inform policy debates. However, the mid-point of the three-year MICROPROD project also coincided with the start of the COVID-19 crisis, which might have accelerated some trends or possibly reversed others. We therefore discuss how some of the messages of MICROPROD research may contribute to our understanding of the current crisis and its aftermath.
Topic:: Globalization, Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, Productivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe

600. Economic crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Marek Dabrowski and Marta Dominguez-Jimenez
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In the 2010s, the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) deteriorated as a result of lower oil and other commodity prices, a new round of domestic political instability, continuous intra-regional conflicts, stalled economic and governance reforms and, finally, the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth of real GDP, which slowed after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, further decelerated in the second half of the 2010s and became negative in 2020 as result of the COVID-19 shock. Fiscal balances have deteriorated, even in the oil-exporting countries, and public debt has grown rapidly. MENA countries continue to face numerous long-term socio-economic and institutional challenges including high unemployment (especially youth unemployment), low female labour-market participation rates, the poor quality of education, costly and ineffective public sectors, high military and security spending, high energy subsidies and trade protectionism. Only comprehensive long-term reform programmes can address these challenges. The European Union is MENA’s second largest trading partner after the region itself, and is one of two main sources of foreign direct investment and a major aid donor. However, given the critical importance of the MENA region to its own security and stability, the EU’s engagement in conflict resolution and in supporting economic and political transformation of the region is insufficient and should be intensified. The EU should also update and upgrade its existing association agreements with the countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, including their free trade provisions.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Governance, European Union, Trade, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

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