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351. The United Kingdom's Belt and Road Initiative strategy after Brexit

Author:
Benjamin Barton
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
As China’s President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become one of the world’s most active infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development in emerging markets across the world. This policy is unlikely to change due to the importance that the Chinese government attributes to the BRI, with it now being formally enshrined into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) constitution. For the UK, the BRI stakes are high; it matters both domestically and internationally. It is impacting the wellbeing of countries that are of strategic importance to the UK. It also contributes to the emerging geopolitical rivalry on infrastructure financing. The government should explore bilateral and multilateral venues to seek to cooperate with China on the BRI by developing a UK BRI strategy post-Brexit.
Topic:
Development, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Britain, China, United Kingdom, and Asia

352. North China, Boxer Rebellion, Japan, Nepal, and Foreign Explorers: Ekai Kawaguchi’s Notes on 20th Century Tibet

Author:
Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
Following his arrival and getting adjusted in Lhasa in March 1901, Japanese Buddhist explorer, Ekai Kawaguchi began familiarizing himself with the life and times of 20th century Tibet. Kawaguchi embarked upon his destination, Tibet, in June 1897 when he left Japan. Arriving in Lhasa nearly four years thereafter, in 1901, Kawaguchi was prepared for the challenges in store, though unaware of the scale of their manifestation. There was a sense of relief though, that he had been able to overcome perhaps the most arduous part of his journey, which was reaching this wearisome and forbidden land whilst being in disguise all through.
Topic:
History and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Nepal

353. Countering Foreign Influence and Inter ference in Open Societies —A Japanese Perspective on Authoritarian Infiltration

Author:
Hideshi Tokuchi
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
It is almost a cliché that Australia and New Zealand are canaries in the coal mine for Chinese attempts at exerting political influence. In fact, Chinese influence is not a topic that affects just Oceania. It is already a serious challenge that confronts all democracies and open societies. According to Clive Hamilton’s “Silent Invasion,” a Chinese diplomat who sought political asylum in Australia told Hamilton that Australia’s openness, relatively small population, a large number of Chinese immigrants and commitment to multiculturalism have weakened Australia’s capacity to recognize and defend against the Chinese infiltration, but all democracies and open societies are susceptible to the threat
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Geopolitics, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

354. The European Union-Russia-China energy triangle

Author:
Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We argue that energy relations between the EU and Russia and between China and Russia influence each other. We analyse their interactions in terms of four areas: oil and gas trading, electricity exchanges, energy technology exports and energy investments. We discuss five key hypotheses that describe the likely developments in these four areas in the next decade and their potential impact on Europe: 1. There is no direct competition between the EU and China for Russian oil and gas 2. China and the EU both have an interest in curbing excessive Russian energy rents 3. The EU, Russia and China compete on the global energy technology market, but specialise in different technologies 4. Intercontinental electricity exchange is unlikely 5. Russia seems more worried about Chinese energy investments with strategic/political goals, than about EU investments We find no evidence of a negative spillover for the EU from the developing Russia-China energy relationship. But, eventually, if these risks – and in particular the risk of structural financial disintermediation – do materialise, central banks would have various instruments to counter them.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, and Europe Union
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Europe

355. The Great Puzzle: China in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Małgorzata Jankowska
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
China’s engagement in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) through the 16+1 economic platform addressed investment needs imposed by the global financial crisis. Despite limited outcomes, it was accompanied by a negative EU narrative towards the sponsor of the program. The main argument has been that the platform undermines EU cohesion and unity. This narrative discouraged bilateral or sub-regional initiatives of CEE states towards China and served to mobilize European Institutions around policies that were primarily shaped by Berlin.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

356. Belt and Road in Latin America: A regional game changer?

Author:
Pepe Zhang
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Four new BRI trends to watch: (i) enforcement of transparency, debt, and environmental safeguards; (ii) growing participation of the private sector; (iii) the role of the advanced economies in BRI; and (iv) new BRI sectors beyond infrastructure Governments and companies in Latin America and the Caribbean should engage and help shape an evolving BRI, mindful of both the opportunities and risks involved The United States can play a key role in setting standards for economic development projects in the region and beyond
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Financial Markets, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South America, and Latin America

357. Sanctions are an Important Tool in China's North Korea Diplomacy: Concerns over nukes have been growing in Beijing

Author:
Yang Jiang
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Beijing has imposed sanctions on North Korea each time the latter has conducted a nuclear test, sometimes leading Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table. The aim is to make North Korea abandon its nuclear program and open up its economy. RECOMMENDATIONS: ■ Denmark should support UN inspections of North Korea’s denuclearization activities, as well as the implementation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by the signatory states. ■ Denmark, in collaboration with other countries, can monitor the implementation of economic sanctions against North Korea while at the same time joining the EU’s discussions on the option of gradually easing sanctions. ■ Denmark should also prepare for the possibility of diplomatic and political normalization between North Korea and the rest of the world in the medium to long term....
Topic:
Diplomacy, Power Politics, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Denmark

358. Getting Japan to the Negotiating Table on the North Korea Crisis: Tokyo's evolving security agenda

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Japan’s absence from frontline diplomacy on the North Korea crisis is undermining inter-national efforts to bring about a lasting peace. A close alliance with Tokyo is essential for American and European interests in East Asia. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ The European Union should consider playing a larger role as a mediator in the North Korean crisis. ■The United States can use its diplomatic weight to help Japan solve the abductee issue with North Korea. ■In the face of their shared security threat, Japan should take steps to ease current tensions with South Korea.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Power Politics, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

359. Can China Buy Peace? Money and Security in the South China Sea

Author:
Yang Jiang
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite China’s strong economic influence over Southeast Asian countries, tensions in the South China Sea have been flaring up again this year, as domestic oppositions and external interventions create dilemma for Southeast Asian governments. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ When considering joining the freedom of navigation operations in the SCS Denmark should consider that foreign interference will likely escalate Chinese military activities. ■ Denmark’s delicate relationship with the US and China must be carefully evaluated and managed. ■As a major maritime nation it is important for Denmark to secure a free sea through diplomacy and UN institutions. ■European countries have much room to enhance their contribution to regional development in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, History, Power Politics, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China and Asia

360. Denmark's China Challenge

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A common refrain in Denmark is that China is too far away to be a threat to Danish economic, foreign and security policy interests. This is no longer the case. Danish policy-makers acknowledge that China’s rise as a global superpower presents Denmark with new challenges. However, transforming this strategic thinking into practice is no simple task. Recommendations Intensify cooperation between the Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs to ensure Denmark’s initiatives in foreign policy, security and economic relations with China are more closely integrated. Beware of the bilateral. Beijing’s new assertive foreign policy and US-China strategic competition require that Denmark leverage its interests increasingly through the EU, NATO and other multilateral bodies. Assess the economic vulnerabilities of Danish industries in China and diversify trade and investment across Asia’s emerging markets and developed economies in the G7/EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Denmark

361. Expo promotes high-quality development

Author:
Dong Yan and Wen Jun
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
China will promote higher-level opening-up by continuing to expand access to its market, increase imports, foster a world-class business environment, deepen multilateral and bilateral cooperation and jointly build the Belt and Road Initiative. This is the promise President Xi Jinping made in his keynote speech at the second China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Tuesday. ...... China's imports have made important contributions to global trade and economic growth, accounting for 10.67 percent of the global goods imports last year. At the second CIIE, which concludes on Sunday, more than 150 countries, regions and international organizations from across five continents are showcasing their development results while more than 3,000 enterprises are holding talks with purchasing agents both inside and outside China. The CIIE is a platform for not only trading goods and services, but also exchanging ideas and discussing global trade issues.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Business, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
China and Asia

362. More than meets the eye in ROK ceding developing economy status

Author:
Dong Yan and Ma Tao
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
A large number of farmers in the Republic of Korea took to the streets of Seoul on Wednesday, protesting the government's recent decision to give up its developing country status at the World Trade Organization in future trade negotiations and thus lose the benefits accruing out of it. The protesters were worried that the decision would eventually lead to a drastic cut in state agriculture subsidies and tariffs. …… Given that countries could experience uneven development, gaining undue advantages in some areas while being weak in others, the WTO has prevented some developing countries from enjoying some of the special and differential treatments in certain fields. For instance, it has restricted the ROK and India from using measures to promote balance of payment. Besides, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, revised in 2003, allows countries that lack production capability to import nonproprietary medicines, which is opposed by the developed countries－and 11 countries including China, the ROK, Mexico and Turkey have agreed to implement the agreement only in emergencies.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, and Korea

363. Tariffs will ultimately harm US economy

Author:
Dong Yan and Zang Chengwei
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
That Vice-Premier Liu He talked with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the phone on Monday raises hope that China and the United States would resume the bilateral trade negotiations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

364. Fair competition put into practice

Author:
Lu Tong
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
This year's Government Work Report sent an important signal to the global community that China aims to create a fair market environment based on competitive neutrality. Competitive neutrality is a set of public policies for regulating domestic market order. It means that State‐owned enterprises and private businesses compete on a level playing field and that SOEs should not obtain an unfair competitive advantage to the detriment of free trade in such areas as tax, subsidies, debt, supervision and market entrance.
Topic:
Markets, Business, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

365. Trade trends show China should take the opportunity to diversify its market

Author:
Dong Yan, Ma Yingying, and Xu Tingting
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The China-US trade row has been drawing a lot of attention. A detailed review of the bilateral trade situation between China and the US from January through April is a good reference for the future trend. Also, as uncertainties loomed amid tariff hikes, some related US industries were afflicted, such as plants, minerals and precious metal in the first quarter.
Topic:
Markets, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Diversification, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

366. The Function Transformation of Central Banks and Commercial Banks under the Application of Digital Fiat Currency

Author:
Song Shuang and Liu Dongmin
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Since the advent of Bitcoin, digital currency and its underlying distributed ledger technology have been spread and applied rapidly around the world. Traditionally, currency issuance and circulation are based on binary tree structure, with the central bank as the highest node, commercial banks in the middle and the public and enterprises at the bottom. However, in the distributed ledger system, all nodes have similar privileges and can transact with each other directly. Hence, the advocators promote the potential of digital currency to subvert the monetary control of sovereign countries and alter the traditional business of commercial banks with the characteristics of decentralization, trust-free intermediary, non-tampering and encryption security. On the other hand, the dissenters believe that transaction nodes in distributed ledger system will be greatly increased, and hence reducing the professionalism of transaction processing and forfeiting the authenticity of original information, which then becomes difficult to play a significant role in the future economy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Banks, Central Bank, Currency, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:
China and Global Focus

367. Opinion: What Is China’s Core Economic Interest in Trade War?

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The trade conflict between China and the U.S. has lasted for more than half a year. The two sides have held several rounds of consultations, but agreements were later broken and tensions have only intensified. The spat will likely be protracted, with frictions to continue and possibly escalate for a period of time, given the two countries’ diverging interests, public opinions and historical experiences. A broad range of issues are involved in the trade dispute. For example, the U.S. has pressured China on forced technology transfer, talent strategy and industrial policy issues, as well as issues the two sides have long been at odds over, such as intellectual property rights, labor, environmental protection, stateowned enterprise reform and foreign exchange rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. has targeted products and sectors that go well beyond those in which China has a competitive advantage. The U.S. tariffs also target industries that the country plans to focus on for future development.
Topic:
Development, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

368. China’s economy seeks bottom amid downward pressure in 2019

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Proactive fiscal policy will be employed this year to meet the challenge of downward pressure In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to seek a bottom as a slowdown is inevitable. It is anticipated that it will stabilize at the end of the year or early next year at a growth rate of around 6.3 percent. With China's economy entering a new era, policymakers should focus more on the quality of growth in addition to maintaining a moderately high growth rate. ...... At the same time, China's economy is facing a lot of downward pressuredomestically. First, confidence in the financial market needs to be restored. In2018, China's financial market was hit many times; its stocks, bonds, fundsand internet finance, for example, were all affected. In addition, at present, thewidening credit spreads and the high degree of liquidity between bankscannot be converted into loans to enterprises and other market entities. Facedwith rising market risks and faltering consumer confidence, investors preferlow-risk or risk-free asset allocations.
Topic:
Markets, Financial Markets, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

369. Supply-side reform leads to economic resilience

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
China's GDP grew 6.6 percent in 2018, according to National Bureau o ftatistics data. Despite the slight slowdown in the GDP growth rate, however, exports grew at a relatively high 9.9 percent year-on-year calculated in US dollars. And, not surprisingly, China's trade surplus with the United States expanded further. ...... Besides, the relative prosperity index of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped to the second-lowest point in a decade, and the financial cost differentiation among various industries is growing. This may have a negative impact on not only short-term macroeconomic stability, but also the development space of relevant emerging industries and long-term growth momentum.
Topic:
Reform, GDP, Economy, Economic Growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China and Asia

370. How to strengthen Europe’s Policy Brief agenda on digital connectivity

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Connectivity is high on the EU’s agenda, but its digital dimension remains underdeveloped. The short paragraph on digital in the EU connectivity strategy is telling. The EU’s distinct approach to digital connectivity – with a focus on the internal market, rule-making and development – differs from similar strategies, particularly China and its Digital Silk Road. "Now is the time to act on digital connectivity's practical as well as strategic elements of hard infrastructure and business operations." Needed, now, is a comprehensive strategic vision that spurs action on all three practical elements of digital connectivity – namely, telecommunications infrastructure, business and regulation – and gives strategic guidance in the political and even securitized sense, and not only from a market perspective. Read the full Policy Brief by Senior Research Fellow Maaike Okano-Heijmans.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, and Digital Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Europe

371. Assessing China’s Influence in Europe through Investments in Technology and Infrastructure. Four Cases.

Author:
Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
China’s role as a global investor and financier has grown rapidly in recent decades, nowhere more so than in Europe. In 2017, a full quarter of China’s outbound foreign direct investment was destined for Europe. China has stepped up promotion of its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with Europe as its final destination, ever greater flows of investment in Eurasian connectivity are on offer. However, in recent years scepticism about rising flows of Chinese investment into the EU has grown. This report aims to carefully scrutinize the linkage between Chinese investment in Europe and China’s influence in the region and provides a nuanced and careful analysis that goes beyond the alarmism and polarization that dominates so much of the recent discussion about China’s role in Europe. It is based on a series of case studies examining a Chinese port investment in Greece, a Chinese-financed rail project in Hungary and Serbia, and two Chinese acquisition deals in the Netherlands. Thus, the authors shed light on the motives behind these individual Chinese investments and financial packages, including the interests of both the Chinese and the host governments and firms involved, evaluating what, if any, Chinese “influence” can be linked to the deals. According to the findings, the specific terms of each investment or loan package are dependent on the individual circumstances of the countries and firms involved. In each case there is an identifiable commercial basis for the Chinese investment, but economic and political viability of each deal varies.
Topic:
Globalization, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

372. Defense Transparency Index 2019

Author:
IGCC
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
In an increasingly volatile world, mutual trust and confidence among defense establishments is critical. Growing arms competition and security anxiety in Northeast Asia, one of the most strategically important but politically volatile regions of the world, is increasing the demand for defense information, not only from governments and militaries but also from businesses, the media, and concerned citizens. The Defense Transparency Index (DTI), a project of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, ranks six countries on their efforts to promote transparency in defense and national security. Included in the Index are the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and the Republic of Korea, along with the external major powers most involved in the region—the United States and Russia. What constitutes “defense transparency” is contested, and there is a lack of agreed-upon definitions and standardized means of measurement. The DTI addresses this gap by providing a framework for defining and measuring defense transparency. We rank countries across eight indicators to come up with overall rankings and for each country, providing a rigorous measurement of this essential but contested concept. Countries score well for budgetary disclosures, issuance of defense white papers, and being transparent on their military capabilities. The DTI is presented at the annual Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), a multilateral forum for track-two diplomacy. NEACD, which was founded by Susan Shirk, seeks to reduce the risk of military conflict in the region and to lay the groundwork for an official multilateral process in Northeast Asia by providing a regular channel of informal communication among the six governments.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

373. Berlin’s Preliminary 5G Decision: Limiting Damage and Learning Lessons

Author:
Kaan Sahin and Didi Kirsten Tatlow
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Despite the security concerns of the US, EU, and Australia, Germany plans not to exclude any telecom equipment vendors, including Chinese companies such as Huawei, from its 5G network. This stance reflects a narrow view of the issue that prioritizes short-term economic interests and fails to uphold national security and democratic values. Widespread criticism, including from within the government, shows that political decision-makers in Germany need a more sophisticated, forward-looking approach to 5G.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Internet
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Germany, Australia, North America, and United States of America

374. Security First, Technology Second: Putin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help

Author:
Andrei Soldatov
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Internet, Surveillance, and Censorship
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

375. China’s great game in the Middle East

Author:
Camille Lons, Jonathan Fulton, Degang Sun, and Naser Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
China has significantly increased its economic, political, and – to a lesser extent – security footprint in the Middle East in the past decade, becoming the biggest trade partner and external investor for many countries in the region. China still has a limited appetite for challenging the US-led security architecture in the Middle East or playing a significant role in regional politics. Yet the country’s growing economic presence is likely to pull it into wider engagement with the region in ways that could significantly affect European interests. Europeans should monitor China’s growing influence on regional stability and political dynamics, especially in relation to sensitive issues such as surveillance technology and arms sales. Europeans should increase their engagement with China in the Middle East, aiming to refocus its economic role on constructive initiatives.
Topic:
Security, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

376. Not smart enough: The poverty of European military thinking on artificial intelligence

Author:
Ulrike Franke
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
There is currently too little European thinking about what artificial intelligence means for the military. AI experts tend to overlook Europe, focusing on the US and China. But AI will play an important role for Europe’s defence capabilities, and its funding and development decisions will influence the future of military AI. France and Germany stand at opposite ends of the AI spectrum in Europe: France considers AI a part of geopolitical competition and shows clear interest in military AI, while Germany sees AI only as an economic and societal issue. The new European Commission’s stated goal of achieving “European technological sovereignty” should lead it to include engagement on the topic of military AI, and help EU member states harmonise their approaches. Failing to coordinate properly in this area could threaten future European defence cooperation, including PESCO and the European Defence Fund.
Topic:
Development, Military Affairs, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, Europe, France, Germany, and United States of America

377. Rescuing multilateralism

Author:
Anthony Dworkin and Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Multilateralism is core to Europe’s approach to foreign policy, but in recent years this has weakened as EU countries disagree among themselves. The US, China, and Russia have each sought to challenge or disrupt the existing, post-1945 world order; and each seeks to divide Europeans from one another. The turmoil in the current system represents an opportunity for Europeans to shape a new order that meets their strategic needs. In addition to the fight against climate change, European interests include: increasing stability on its troubled periphery; managing migration more effectively; and defending the open world trading system. European countries will need to transform EU foreign policy decision-making processes, deepen their cooperation in multilateral settings, and set multilateral standards for emerging technologies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Migration, Political stability, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Europe

378. Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions

Author:
Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America

379. Harnessing artificial intelligence

Author:
Ulrike Franke
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence is impossible to disregard – it is set to transform society, the economy, and politics. Europe has not yet taken all the steps it needs to benefit from these advances or to protect itself from AI’s potentially dangerous aspects. The US, China, and Russia are alert to AI’s power to change modern warfare: they grasp the geopolitics of AI and may pursue techno-nationalist agendas in recognition of this. Europe can develop sovereignty in AI by beefing up the talent, data, and hardware it draws on; and as a “regulatory superpower” it can set standards the rest of the world will have to follow. If Europe does not address these difficult questions soon it will find itself surrounded by more powerful rivals deploying AI against it.
Topic:
Politics, Geopolitics, Economy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

380. From plaything to player: How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years

Author:
Carl Bildt and Eric K. Leonard
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU’s foreign policy is inadequate to the task of keeping Europe safe in today’s world of great power politics and uncertainty. Over the last five years, trust between Brussels and member states dwindled, and policy came to reflect the lowest common denominator of popular opinion. The coming five years herald acute pressure on Europe, particularly as Russia, China, and the US undermine multilateral institutions and treat trade, finance data, and security guarantees as instruments of power rather than global public goods. The new high representative should move quickly to rewire European foreign policymaking to exercise strategic sovereignty. The high representative needs more support on this strategy – from deputies, special representatives, and foreign ministers tasked with specific roles. The new leadership team in Brussels needs to reoperationalise European defence, build Europe’s self-sufficiency through a strong European pillar in NATO, and consider innovations such as a European Security Council. Europe will only build greater unity by tackling controversial issues head on in the European Council and the Foreign Affairs Council. The high representative needs to play a much more active role in these debates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

381. Europe can spearhead a new cycle in transatlantic relations, not President Trump

Author:
Martin Michelot
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Transatlantic cooperation has, ever since the election of President Donald Trump, been a topic of contention and concern in Europe, and created a lot of questions regarding whether the fundamentals of the transatlantic relationship were being questioned. Concerns about US engagement in NATO, a potential dissonant threat perception towards and relationship with China and Russia, and the tensions around trade agreements, and in general a perceived defiance of international liberal order are all issues that have ranked high on the agenda of European leaders since early 2017, and that continue to represent - among other issues - topics that require a deeper discussion at the political and the expert level.
Topic:
NATO, Engagement, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

382. Finding a European response to Huawei’s 5G ambitions

Author:
Valentin Weber
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This policy brief suggests that European countries should institute national reviewing boards overseen by intelligence agencies to vet Huawei equipment. If that is not feasible due to a lack of resources or capabilities especially among smaller countries, European governments should consider pooling resources and create a common reviewing board. This would also prevent duplication of efforts on national levels. European authorities should also demand from Huawei to clearly separate its international from its domestic business operations in order to further reduce the risk to the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of European mobile networks.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Business, 5G, and Huawei
Political Geography:
China and Europe

383. China’s Export Success: Due to Unfair Practices or Fair Competition?

Author:
Rolf Langhammer
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Compared with previous ratings, China’s trade policy today is more positively acknowledged. Yet, China can still be criticised in particular because of its non-transparent subsidy policy, the privileged role of state-owned enterprises, the heavy hand of the state in general, the sluggish enforcement of intellectual property rights, and the prevalence of non-tariff barriers. Yet, it cannot be ignored that Chinese entrepreneurship mentality is highly developed outside state interference in world markets. Especially, in the digital economy, high motivation and a large pool of human skills act as drivers of innovations, so far mainly process innovations. The trade war with the US hurts China and is responded by China with asymmetrical retaliation. The more Chinese exports to the US in total are affected, the more costs will have to be borne by US consumers as options to shift to alternative suppliers become weaker. What President Trump would see as a “good” deal for the US is unclear. It can be thus presumed that the trade war will continue into 2020 and that it is in fact a tech war. The EU is affected as EU companies produce in China for the US market and in the US for the Chinese market. While it might gain from trade diversion effects in the short run, the negative effects on investment due to uncertainty weigh more heavily. The EU is tempted to negotiate a free trade agreement with China but rightly refuses to start negotiations before China is prepared to conclude an agreement on investment. The EU should not see China and the US on equidistance. Workable relations with the US are much more important. To conclude, China’s trade policy has improved relative to Western standards but still warrants further steps towards much less state influence. Yet, its global competiveness especially in the state-of-the-art digital economy is high and is owed to a strong entrepreneurial mentality.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Asia, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

384. China’s Inroads into Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe

Author:
Jacopo Maria Pepe
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Could China’s quiet but steadily rising penetration of Central Europe bear risks for the EU? Certainly, Beijing is using the region as a gateway to Western Europe’s markets while including the EU in its “Eurasian” integration project. But a deepening trade triangle of China, Germany, and Central European countries could put other EU countries at an economic disadvantage. Germany must address this risk, carefully balancing national interest and European cohesion.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
China

385. China's Top Five War Plans

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This publication breaks down Beijing’s likely top five war plans to understand what may be driving China’s military reorganization and reform campaign. Easton analyzes available Chinese military sources and concludes that China’s primary strategic goal is to take Taiwan using one or more of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s five outlined combat operations, in the 21st century’s foremost flashpoint. He also explains how these five different joint operations could be used to isolate or occupy Taiwan, thwart American intervention in offensive operations against U.S. military units, and repel potential border threats from India in the event of aPLA invasion of Taiwan.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
China

386. Towards a “New Era” in China’s Great Power Diplomacy

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In his first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy dictum of “keeping a low profile.” But China’s activism in the middle of Xi’s first term was still more reactive than creative. However, in the last two years a new phase of diplomacy has emerged, in which all actions are subordinated to China’s unchanging strategic foreign policy goal of regaining its superpower status. This means that China strives to enforce change in the global system, which is dominated by the West.[1] The PRC is already trying to introduce new standards for international relations and promotes its values and principles more aggressively worldwide. There are already examples that Xi is effectively implementing his ideas.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
China

387. The Conflict Resource Economy and Pathways to Peace in Burma

Author:
Kevin M. Woods
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Burma’s natural resource economy is inextricably tied to the ongoing armed conflict within the country. Questions of who has what ownership rights over what resources and how these resources can be more equitably shared with the wider population loom large. This report focuses on Burma’s resource-rich ethnic states and territories near the borders with China and Thailand and suggests that a more robust, accountable, and equitable system for managing the country’s resource wealth can help lay down the pathways to peace.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Burma, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

388. International Sustainable and Climate Finance: Where are we and which is the role of China on this?

Author:
Alice Amorim
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
This brief focuses on climate finance, as it encompasses a substantive part of the resources in this broader sustainability agenda. Having a better understanding of this field is important given the possible risk of other development resources being hijacked by the climate finance rhetoric. The paper also presents updated data on climate finance flows and for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda. Finally, it presents some evidence of how China and Chinese-led financial institutions are becoming key players in this field.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Finance, Risk, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
China

389. Gender and Energy approaches by BASIC countries

Author:
Alice Amorim and Marco Antonio Teixeira
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
This Policy Brief analysis how the BASIC countries have incorporated gender and energy issues in their NDCs and assesses some of the interrelations between key energy and gender inequalities of the bloc.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Gender Issues, Renewable Energy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

390. China-Global governance without hegemony

Author:
Pan Zhongyin
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pangoal Institution
Abstract:
Where is global economic governance heading? What will the future of global economic governance hold? These questions are on everyone’s lips. In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s foreign policy principle of ‘never seeking hegemony’, but this does not mean that China should disavow the role of international leadership. Indeed, it is now engaged in what might be called a non-hegemonic leadership, which is sure to be hugely significant in the future of global economic governance.
Topic:
International Relations, Governance, Hegemony, and Economy
Political Geography:
China and Global Focus

391. Between Giants: The Sino-Indian Cold War in the Indian Ocean

Author:
David Brewster
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Strategic competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean is growing and has the potential to profoundly impact the stability and security of the region. The Indian Ocean is becoming the scene of a sustained contest that in some ways resembles strategic competition during the Cold War. This will include pressure on Indian Ocean states to align themselves with one side or another within an increasingly unstable and complex strategic environment.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Political stability, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean

392. The three stages of China’s ODI development

Author:
Bijang Wang and Kailin Gao
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
In 2016, China became the world’s second-largest outward investor after the United States, with US$196.2 billion of outward direct investment (ODI) flows. China’s foray into ODI developed in three stages, moving from a ‘restricted’ to a ‘relaxed’ and most recently to a ‘regulated’ approach. Today’s strengthened ODI regulations correct imbalanced ODI practices of earlier eras, but some challenges remain. Before 2000, capital shortages prompted China to invite capital inflows and restrict capital outflows. Chinese enterprises had to apply for approval to invest overseas on a case-by-case basis, which minimised overseas investment. By the end of 1999, China ranked 23rd in the world for outward investment with an ODI stock of US$27 billion, representing 0.4 per cent of the global total.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

393. China and Canada eye more mutually beneficial trade deal

Author:
Dong Yan and Bai Jie
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
A clause in the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact, widely known as a "poison pill" aimed at China, will not stop Canada from continuing to negotiate a free trade agreement with China, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at an event at the National University of Singapore on Thursday. This suggests the US will find it extremely difficult to administer its "poison pill", because it has gone too far in using bullying tactics against other countries－in this case, China.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, and North America

394. China Responds to Trade Tensions Responsibly

Author:
Su Qingyi
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
In March 2018, the United States slapped tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum in the name of national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Then, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report on the investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, claiming China’s acts, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are “unreasonable and discriminatory, and burden U.S. commerce.” In early April, it issued a list of products imported from China subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent totaling US $50 billion. In June, Donald Trump approved the tariff imposition on US $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, officially starting from Chinese exports worth US $34 billion on July 6. The remaining US $16 billion was to be imposed later. In July, the U.S. issued another trade barrier of 10 percent tariff on imports from China with a value of US $200 billion. On August 1, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the barriers were suggested by President Trump, who ordered to increase the amount to 25 percent.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

395. China can overcome a trade war

Author:
Su Qingyi
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The tariff war the United States has launched against China shows no sign of abating, as the Donald Trump administration made good its threat to impose 25 percent tariff on another $16 billion worth of Chinese imports on Thursday. Instead, since the US has threatened to slap tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, or on almost all Chinese imports, the trade conflict seems set to intensify. Thanks to its national strength and moral righteousness, as well as its objective assessment that the US' tariff war will have a limited impact on the Chinese economy, China is confident and capable of safeguarding the core interests of the country and its people. The trade dispute, however, will affect on three areas－foreign trade, investment (including overseas investment) and the macro-economy. But the impact is likely to be limited and manageable.
Topic:
Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

396. Emerging economies need safeguards to tackle currency crisis

Author:
Gao Haihong
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The recent appreciation of the US dollar and the uneven pace of monetary policy normalization in many countries have become a headwind for emerging economies. This month, the Turkish lira has sharply depreciated against the US dollar, followed by a jump in Turkish bond yield for fear of high inflation. Earlier this year, after failing to stabilize its currency, Argentina sought the International Monetary Fund's support to stabilize the peso. The IMF agreed to give a $50 billion standby line of credit but on conditions that required necessary domestic fiscal and structural adjustment. These developments reaffirmed the eminent risks facing the emerging economies. A strong dollar and tightened monetary policy in the US are prompting capital flight from countries that have high domestic public debt, huge external liability, and a weak current account balance and relatively open capital account. For example, Turkey’s total external debt to GDP was at 53.5% and its current account deficit was 7.1% to GDP.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Asia, Argentina, and United States of America

397. “Triple punch” policies to bring years of trade tensions

Author:
Su Qingyi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
US President Donald Trump has adopted a hard-line trade policy and recklessly instigated the trade conflict with China. This is the result of a combination of adjustments to his trade, foreign, and fiscal policies. These intertwined policies will likely stretch China-US trade frictions throughout Trump's presidency. First of all, the adjustment to the trade policy includes a shift from multilateral free trade to regional free trade and pressuring other countries to open their markets.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

398. Opinion: China International Import Expo: New era, shared future

Author:
Su Qingyi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The first China International Import Expo (CIIE) will be held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai. The theme of the CIIE is "New Era, Shared Future," which has rich connotations. The first implication of the new era is that countries around the world begin to realize the importance of imports Economists usually emphasize sellers and exporters when they analyze the exchange between peoples and trade between countries. They tend to attach importance to exports when participating in international trade, and try to promote the growth of export.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
China and Asia

399. BRICS Plus: An innovative model for cooperation

Author:
Su Qingyi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
It has been ten years since the BRICS mechanism was established. During this process, BRICS has undergone two significant improvements. The first is the accession of South Africa in 2011, and the second is promoting the formation of BRICS Plus in 2017. This reveals that BRICS cooperation is a continuous development mechanism. BRICS Plus is the perfection and innovation of the current system. The main body comprises the countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This is conducive to ensuring the stability and efficiency of the organization’s cooperation. However, the cooperation is an open and inclusive platform.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and BRICS
Political Geography:
China, India, and South Africa

400. US tariff measures may boomerang

Author:
Dong Yan
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
US President Donald Trump has launched a tariff war not only against China but also against some other economies and threatened to undermine the multilateral trading system. Apart from China, quite a few other economies have also taken countermeasures to Trump's unilateral and protectionist moves. For instance, Russia plans to impose 25-40 percent tariff on US industrial goods, including equipment for road construction, oil and gas, and mining in response to the US tariffs on Russian metals.
Topic:
Multilateralism, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and United States of America