Number of results to display per page
Search Results
742. The Philippines: Running in Place in Mindanao
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Six months after the collapse of autonomy negotiations between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippines government, low-intensity conflict continues but moves are under way to resurrect talks. It is not clear whether negotiations will resume and if they do, with what agenda. Certainly no settlement is likely during the remaining tenure of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo; the two sides are too far apart, the potential spoilers too numerous, and the political will too weak. The best that can be hoped for is progress around the edges.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, Philippines, and Mindanao
743. Timor-Leste: No Time for Complacency
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A year after the near-fatal shooting of President José Ramos-Horta, security in Timor-Leste is strikingly improved. Armed rebels are no longer at large. The atmosphere on the streets of Dili is far less tense. The government does not seem to be facing any serious political threat to its survival. It has, at least temporarily, been able to address several of the most pressing security threats, in large part by buying off those it sees as potential troublemakers. Nevertheless, the current period of calm is not cause for complacency. Security sector reform is lagging, the justice system is weak, the government shows signs of intolerance towards dissenting voices, and it has not got a grip on corruption. These problems, which have been at the root of the instability facing Timor-Leste since independence, must be tackled if the country is to escape the cycle of conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, and Vienna
744. The Foreign Policy of Iran: Ideology and pragmatism in the Islamic Republic
- Author:
- Katrine Barnekow Rasmussen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This is a brief English version of a Danish DIIS Report on the foreign policy of Iran. In the Report, Iran's foreign policy is investigated both ideologically and in respect of its pragmatic motivations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Oil, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Asia
745. The Future of the Chiang Mai Initiative: An Asian Monetary Fund?
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In September 1997, at the outset of the last global financial crisis, the Japanese Ministry of Finance proposed the creation of an Asian Monetary Fund. Although this particular proposal was scuttled, the idea of a common regional fund on which East Asian governments might draw in times of financial turmoil survives. The region's disaffection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stemming from the 1997–98 crisis, sustains this idea and a desire on the part of individual countries to self-insure with large holdings of foreign exchange reserves. East Asian governments and central banks have created a set of bilateral swap arrangements (BSAs) dubbed the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and are negotiating among themselves to build these BSAs into a more comprehensive facility. Some Asian officials hope that such a facility could underpin exchange rate cooperation and monetary integration in the region, although such proposals remain for the moment long-term visions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and Asia
746. Indonesia: Deep Distrust in Aceh as Elections Approach
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tensions in Aceh are high as elections approach, although they have receded somewhat from a peak in mid-February. The murders of three former combatants of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM), other shootings and numerous grenade attacks over the last two months – all with unidentified perpetrators – have set the province on edge, and there remains a risk of sporadic, low-level violence before and after general elections on 9 April. Disputes over the results, with 44 parties competing for seats in district, provincial and national legislatures using a new and complicated system of voting, are also likely. There is little danger in the short term of violence escalating out of control, let alone a return to armed conflict, but the underlying causes of the tensions are not just election-related and need to be addressed if peace is to be preserved in the long term.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia
747. WSC 5: Protecting People, Economies, and Infrastructure
- Author:
- Christine Lynch, Devon Tucker, Michael Harvey, and Jacqueline McLaren Miller
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Drawing on a diverse array of opinions from Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America, the EastWest Institute's Fifth Worldwide Security Conference brought together specialists from the spheres of policy, academia, and civil society. Participants addressed a variety of issues on the contemporary global security landscape. These ranged from specific security threats (whether illicit trade, the targeting of critical infrastructure or cyber crime) to the role of interested actors (such as business, NGOs, and media), as well as a focus on potential strategies to counter terrorism and extremism (either in terms of constructing global cooperative architectures or, more controversially, the possibility of opening dialogue with the terrorists). A variety of policy recommendations emerged from each session—detailed in the main body of the report—but there were several recurring themes binding the debate together and animating the core arguments of proceedings as a whole. These policy recommendations were not necessarily consensus recommendations but reflected a wide range of debated policy prescriptions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, Education, Globalization, Human Rights, International Security, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Asia, and North America
748. North Korea's Missile Launch: The Risks of Overreaction
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- North Korea says it is preparing to launch an experimental communications satellite using a rocket that is part of its ballistic missile program. This would be in the face of an international outcry, and of what is a strong though not definitive argument that it violates two UN Security Council resolutions. Japan has been most vocally opposed, saying it will shoot down the rocket if it threatens to fall on its territory. But even if the test is successful, it would only slightly increase security risks, while an overblown response would likely jeopardise the Six-Party Talks to end North Korea's nuclear program. What is needed is a calm, coordinated response from the key actors to raise pressure on Pyongyang to return to the talks rather than a divided reaction that only fulfils the North's desire to widen splits among its neighbours.
- Topic:
- Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, and North Korea
749. Options for a Democratic Taiwan
- Author:
- Kerry Brown
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Over the last two decades, as Mainland China has been developing and liberalizing its economy, Taiwan has been undergoing an equally remarkable but very different political transformation, from martial law in 1987 to its current status as one of the most vibrant, stable democracies in Asia. Despite its eventful experience of the democratization process, the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2008 proved that Taiwan is now a mature, and stable, democracy. It has passed the ultimate test, seeing the successful transition of rule from one party to another and back again, without social turmoil. Economic performance over the same period has been less striking. Once among the fastestgrowing economies, Taiwan is now afflicted by a relatively low growth rate, and problems over the outflow of capital and investment to the Mainland. The potential for conflict over cross-straits relations remains but it has been significantly reduced under President Ma and by the Mainland Chinese government's greater accommodation with a democratic Taiwan in the last decade. The risk of a military conflict between the two sides, which could drag in the US, and therefore the rest of the world, cannot be entirely discounted, however. Taiwan's greatest challenges in the next decade remain the same as in the last – to maintain its identity, to develop its democratic system, and to handle relations with the Mainland in a way that preserves its interests while avoiding conflict. Taiwan's system, which has so far proved itself robust and effective, faces a new challenge too: how to benefit from the increase in Mainland investment abroad.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, and Asia
750. Oil, Gas and International Insecurity: Tackling a Self-fuelling Fire
- Author:
- Daniel Litvin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In the United States, European Union and Asia, fears about dependence on oil and gas imports from unstable regions have become a major theme of political debate. This paper provides a high-level and historical perspective on this complex issue. Dependence on oil and gas imports raises real economic- and political-security issues for many countries. Neither the global economic crisis nor climate change policies - both of which look set to restrain oil and gas demand - will solve the problem entirely. In fact, over the next few decades it is likely to become worse.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Asia