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  • Author: Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, Stephen P. Pettibone
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Betsy Gidwitz
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: In recent months, since shortly after the collapse of the Russian ruble in August 1998, an upsurge of antisemitism in Russia has generated a startling increase in emigration of Russian Jewry. Among Jews in Israel and many diaspora countries, concern has grown about the fate of those Jews remaining in Russia, the largest of the post-Soviet states.
  • Topic: Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Gerald M. Steinberg
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Prime Minister Ehud Barak will not get a period of grace or a post-election honeymoon. Immediately upon taking office, he faces a number of pressing issues. Many of these are domestic - including religious-secular relations and economic concerns.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Oxford Analytica
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Analytica
  • Abstract: In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Steve H. Hanke
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The devaluation of the Russian ruble this year was predictable, especially considering Russia's poor monetary history. State-manipulated money has been a Russian hallmark since the time of Peter the Great and shows that the country's money problems are endemic and do not depend on who controls the central bank. Czarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet governments have used the central bank printing press to finance deficit spending, resulting in high inflation, confiscation of savings, capital controls, or a combination of the three.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Anna J. Schwartz
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund are undemocratic institutions unaccountable for their actions. Their current functions have little to do with their original missions. The ESF is used by the executive branch to circumvent Congress in the provision of foreign aid. Its foreign exchange interventions have, in any event, always been wasteful and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U.S. dollar. The IMF has also been used to provide massive bailouts in the cases of Mexico in 1995 and of Asian countries since 1997. Defenders of the IMF as an international lender of last resort are misinformed since the IMF does not and cannot serve that purpose. Both institutions should be abolished, not reformed, because they are not needed to resolve currency crises and they preclude superior solutions.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, Mexico
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The provided an overview of the Indian economy. This issue will focus on three key sectors: industry, the financial sector, and agriculture. The three sectors, while seemingly unrelated, are key to India's future. Indian industry is undergoing unprecedented change as a result of the deregulation process begun in 1991, the recent downturn in the domestic economy, and the crisis in Asia. Established industries are being challenged and new ones are emerging.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Tim Forsyth
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: This workshop was arranged by the RIIA under the sponsorship of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) of Japan to explore ways of increasing international investment in renewable energy technology in Asia. Enhancing renewable energy investment is clearly relevant to global strategies to mitigate climate change. However, the two debates on climate change policy and renewable energy investment have largely remained separate, and characterized by tendencies to discuss large-scale global flows of energy and investment on the one hand, and local development-oriented practice on the other. The workshop attempted to integrate these two debates, and therefore form part of a growing body of knowledge to inform the current climate change negotiations with practical options available to small and large businesses. The workshop had three main aims: to identify the implications of the Kyoto Protocol for international renewable energy investment; to define technology transfer and identify how it may be increased for renewable energy in South and Southeast Asia; to assess what public and private forms of finance could be sought to ensure the success of renewable energy businesses in South and Southeast Asia. The workshop was attended by some 30 industrialists, financiers and renewable energy specialists from around the world. This paper is a summary of the proceedings. In order to encourage frank exchange, the workshop was held under Chatham House Rule of confidentiality and anonymity, so individual speakers are not named.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: David Cortright, Amitabh Mattoo
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Survey. An opinion survey of elite opinion on India's nuclear policy was conducted between late September and early November 1994. The survey consisted of face to face interviews with educated elites in seven Indian cities. Respondents were government civil servants, academicians, scientists, journalists, lawyers, politicians, doctors, public and private sector executives, members of the police and armed forces, and sports figures. Interviews were conducted by MARG, Marketing and Research Group Pvt. Ltd. (New Delhi), for the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, and the Fourth Freedom Forum, Goshen, Indiana. The target sample size was 1000, with 992 responses. Respondents were interviewed in Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Banglore, Lucknow, and Hyderabad. Views on India's Nuclear Policy. Respondents were divided into three groups. The first and largest group (57 percent, N=563) consists of those supporting India's current policy of keeping the nuclear option open: neither renouncing nuclear weapons nor acquiring them. The second group (33 percent) supports India's acquisition of nuclear weapons (N=326). The third group (8 percent, N=83) favors renunciation of nuclear weapons. The survey probed the factors that might convince respondents to alter their views on nuclear weapons policy. For those supporting government policy or favoring weaponization, i.e., the vast majority of respondents, the most important considerations that would permit India to renounce the nuclear option are "a time-bound plan for global nuclear disarmament" and "a verifiable renunciation of Pakistan's nuclear option." Looking at the reverse question, what would justify India's development of nuclear weapons, nearly half of those supporting the government's position believe that India should proceed with weaponization if Pakistan tests a nuclear device. Threats from a nuclear Pakistan are also the primary consideration for those favoring weaponization. By contrast, the prospect of a border settlement with China and removal of Chinese nuclear weapons from Tibet appears to have little influence on opinion. Nor is there strong belief that a serious deterioration of relations with China could justify the development of nuclear weapons. These findings suggest that the primary motivation for the nuclear option in India is not the perceived threat from China but concern about the Pakistani nuclear program. An intensive effort to negotiate a verifiable test ban and nuclear inspection agreement with Pakistan could significantly enhance prospects for denuclearization. The strong consideration given to global disarmament also suggests that the most important step the United States and other nuclear powers could take to defuse nuclear tensions in South Asia would be to support negotiations for comprehensive nuclear disarmament, as called for in Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Support for Multilateral Arms Control. Thirty-nine percent of all respondents support the idea of India signing the NPT with or without the condition that Pakistan also sign the treaty. Forty-two percent of those who support the government's nuclear policy favor India signing the NPT either unilaterally or bilaterally with Pakistan. Even 32 percent of those who favor the development of nuclear weapons support India's signing of the NPT. More than 90 percent of all respondents express support for an international agreement for the elimination of all nuclear weapons. Only 2 percent oppose the idea. Use of Nuclear Weapons. Forty-four percent of all respondents feel that nuclear weapons could never be used. Thirty-three percent of respondents feel the use of nuclear weapons would be justified if Pakistan were about to take over Kashmir. Only 23 percent believe that a nuclear response would be appropriate if China were about to overwhelm India militarily. Factors Shaping Views Respondents were asked what would motivate them. to advocate India's acquiring of nuclear weapons as well as what might lead them. to support India's renouncing them. When those supporting India's current policy were asked what circumstances might lead them. to renounce nuclear weapons use, 58 percent cited a time-bound plan for global nuclear disarmament. The survey analysis found a significant correlation (r=.218, significant at .01 level) between the belief that threats from other nuclear powers justify India's development of nuclear weapons and the view that India could renounce nuclear weapons if a time-bound plan for global disarmament were in place. This buttresses the argument that greater international cooperation on disarmament might reduce the tendency of elites to accept nuclear weapons development as a policy option. The next largest proportion of respondents favoring government policy (26 percent) cited a verifiable ban on Pakistan's nuclear weapons development. Fifteen percent saw a boundary settlement with China and the removal of nuclear weapons from Tibet as a prerequisite for India's renunciation of nuclear weapons. This pattern of responses suggests that, while regional security issues are important for reducing the attractiveness of India's nuclear option, a far more important factor in reducing the inclination of elites to support the acquisition of nuclear weapons is a comprehensive treaty leading toward the global elimination of nuclear threats. Respondents who indicated that India should develop nuclear weapons most frequently cited threats from a nuclear Pakistan (57 percent) and an interest in advancing India's international bargaining power (49 percent) as their reasons for taking such a position. Twenty-seven percent of this group saw threats from other nuclear powers as motivating their interest in seeing India go nuclear. While a third of this group saw no circumstance which would lead them. to change their position on nuclear weapons, 42 percent saw a global agreement to eliminate nuclear testing and development as a situation under which India could renounce nuclear weapons. It appears that an international treaty would do two things that would address the primary concerns indicated by these respondents. First it would reduce the regional threat caused by the possibility of Pakistan acquiring a nuclear weapon. Second it would reduce the political leverage which nuclear weapons states have over nonnuclear states, thus reducing the attraction of nuclear weapons development as a political strategy. The group opposed to India's acquiring of nuclear weapons remained firmly opposed to their use, with 60 percent indicating that no circumstance would make them. consider that India should adopt such weapons. Of those who viewed some situations as calling for a nuclear response, the largest proportion viewed threats from other nuclear powers-as opposed to regionalized threats or other international pressures--as a situation which would lead them. to consider changing their views. This would suggest that the absence of international controls on nuclear weapons states creates insecurities which might prevent opponents of nuclear weapons from eschewing their use in international politics. Larger Study. This study is part of a larger study on India's nuclear choices, David Cortright (President, Fourth Freedom Forum, Goshen, Indiana) and Amitabh Mattoo (Associate Professor in International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India). The study is the result of a collaboration between Indian and American scholars, including Dr. Sumit Ganguly (Associate Professor, Hunter College, City University of New York), Dr. Kanti Bajpai (Associate Professor in International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi), Dr. Aabha Dixit (Research Officer, Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi) and Dr. Varun Sahni (Reader in Politics, University of Goa). For more information about the survey and the larger study, contact David Cortright at 1-800-233-6786, or fax (1-219-534-4937) or mailto:fff@tln.net (outside the U.S., call 1-219-534-3402). Amitabh Mattoo can be reached in India by mailto:Mattoo@jnuniv.ernet.in or faxing 011-91-11-689-6454.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: India, Asia, New Delhi