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201. Chechnya Weekly: Rebels And Feds Battle Over Ceasefire

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell and Marc Brody
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Gen.-Major Ilya Shabalkin, spokesman for the Russian military operation in the North Caucasus, claimed on February 14 that Federal Security Service (FSB) and Interior Ministry forces had carried out a special operation to destroy a group of rebels, Interfax reported. Shabalkin said the rebel group numbered up to 15 and was located along the administrative border between the Shali and Groznensky rural districts near the villages of Starye Atagi and Novye Atagi. Six of the rebels were reportedly killed and ten escaped. Shabalkin said the security forces launched the operation after receiving intelligence that a large rebel group was planning attacks on federal military installations. “An ambush was set up on the route along which the bandits were likely to move,” he said. “Around 00:30 on Monday, a group of fighters were spotted. Federal forces went into action against them. The band was dispersed. According to preliminary information, around five militants were killed.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

202. Chechnya Weekly: Basaev Denies Rumors Of His Death

Author:
Andrei Smirnov and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chechen warlord Shamil Basaev appeared in a four-minute video posted on the separatist Kavkazcenter website on February 8 aimed at dispelling speculation that he had been killed. On February 2, the head of the Abkhazia's State Security Service, Mikhail Tarba, referred to rumors that Basaev had been killed, noting that according to one of them, Basaev was killed as a result of disputes with “Arab mercenaries,” while according to another, he died as a result of “kidney problems.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

203. Chechnya Weekly: Charges Filed Related To Maskhadov's Missing Relatives

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell and Andrew McGregor
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Vladimir Kravchenko, the Chechen Republic's Prosecutor, announced on January 31 that his office had on January 27 opened eight criminal cases related to the kidnapping of Chechen rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov's relatives, Interfax reported. Kravchenko stressed that the cases were launched by the law-enforcement agencies in connection with the wide “public interest” in – and numerous press reports about – the alleged kidnappings. Preliminary findings suggest that all the abductions took place last December, he said. This, it should be noted, is what Memorial reported earlier this month after conducting its own investigation. The human rights group listed the relatives of Maskhadov – his sister, two brothers, two nephews and three distant relatives – and detailed the circumstances of their abduction. The Memorial report also cited various eye-witnesses, including GRU commandos, who identified the kidnappers as kadyrovtsy – individuals subordinated to Chechnya's first deputy prime minister, Ramzan Kadyrov (see Chechnya Weekly, January 26). Kravchenko, however, said that there is no evidence that “power structures” or “law-enforcement” agencies were involved in the kidnappings. There are “many versions” of what happened, he said, including kidnapping for ransom, which has become a “profitable business” in Chechnya.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

204. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Rights Activist Abducted

Author:
John B. Dunlop and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Makhmut Magomadov, a Chechen human rights activist who previously served as a deputy prosecutor during Aslan Maskhadov's presidency, was abducted in Grozny's Staropromyslovsky district on January 20. Since 2000, he has worked as a legal expert for the International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights (IHF), the International Protection Center and the Chechnya Committee of National Salvation, helping victims of human rights abuses bring their cases before the European Court on Human Rights. According to the IHF, in 1992, following a long career with the police in Donskoi, Tula Oblast, Magomadov became an investigator for the Chechen Ministry of Interior. From 1994 to 1996 he worked in the Office of the Public Prosecutor of the Interim Administration of Chechnya and later as the republic's Assistant Prosecutor General for criminal investigations. He also headed a task force set up to fight kidnappings in Chechnya that was, according to the IHF, “instrumental in freeing hundreds of kidnapped persons.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

205. Chechnya Weekly: Security Forces Battle Militants In Dagestan

Author:
Andrei Smirnov and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Nikolai Gryaznov, head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) directorate in Dagestan, said on January 17 that the body of Rasul Makasharipov, a.k.a. “Muslim,” was among the remains of five militants recovered in the ruins of a house in a village located on the outskirts of the republican capital of Makhachkala, where a shoot-out with security forces lasting more than 15 hours took place on January 15-16, Itar-Tass reported.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

206. Chechnya Weekly:Ramzan Frees His Sister

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell and John Reuter
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Tensions between Chechnya and Dagestan escalated this week after police in the Dagestani city of Khasavyurt detained Zulai Kadyorva, sister of Chechnya's first deputy prime minister, Ramzan Kadyrov. Son of assassinated pro-Moscow Chechen president, Akhmed Kadyrov, Ramzan heads the republic's infamous presidential security service. According to the version of events published by the Gazeta newspaper's website, Gzt.ru, on January 11, OMON police officers on January 10 stopped a car carrying Ms. Kadyrova on the federal highway leading into Khasavyurt, after which Ms. Kadyrova identified herself and explained that she was traveling to the city for medical treatment. With her were two members of her brother's security service but only one of them was carrying his security service I.D. The three were taken to Khasavyurt's Interior Ministry office, or GOVD – that is, the Khasavyurt city police headquarters – after which Ms. Kadyrova reportedly became ill and, according to one police officer who was present, fainted.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

207. Chechnya Weekly: Hero Of Russia

Author:
Andrei Smirnov and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On December 29, President Vladimir Putin conferred Russia's highest award, the Hero of the Russian Federation, on Ramzan Kadyrov, the pro-Moscow Chechen government's first deputy prime minister and son of the late Chechen president. According to the corresponding presidential decree, the younger Kadyrov was awarded “for courage and heroism displayed during the discharge of official duties,” Newsru.com reported on December 29. Ramzan's father, Akhmad Kadyrov, was awarded a “Hero of the Russian Federation” on May 11, two days after he was killed by a bomb detonated beneath the VIP stands in Grozny's Dinamo Stadium. Ramzan said that the award “above all recognizes as heroes the whole long-suffering Chechen people. And we will continue…an uncompromising struggle against terrorism, extremism and banditry, and thereby protect the interests of the whole Russian people.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

208. Six-Party Talks: Defining A Realistic Roadmap for Success

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa, Scott Snyder, and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The forthcoming resumption of Six-Party Talks to eliminate nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula is expected to build on the Joint Statement of principles released at the end of the last round on September 19, 2005. While some have criticized the vagueness of the Joint Statement, it represents the first tangible progress in identifying common principles and objectives in two years of sporadic meetings. If North Korea has indeed made a “strategic decision” to abandon its nuclear weapons programs – a thesis still to be tested – it may provide a basis for future progress. For this to occur, however, a more specific negotiating road map and implementing process must be developed. It is important to assess where the current guidelines might lead and to identify the "commitments for commitments" and "actions for actions" that might be envisioned as next steps.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

209. Security Council Reform Debate Highlights Challenges Facing UN

Author:
Ian Williams
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Within a day of arriving at the United Nations John Bolton, the former lobbyist for Taiwan and advocate for one permanent seat on the Security Council, the United States, had cut a deal with the Chinese representative. China wants to stop an additional permanent Security Council seat for Japan. The United States had promised Japan its support in return for its loyalty over Iraq, but hated Germany more than it loves Japan. So the two agreed to thwart the attempt by the G-4 (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan), to secure permanent seats during the current reform proposals.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, Brazil, and Germany

210. Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan's Defense Reform and Modernization Program

Author:
Micheal D. Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ONE OF THE TWO PLACES in the Asian Pacific where a major war could break out; the other place is the Korean Peninsula. For over fifty years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have maintained an uneasy peace across the Strait, punctuated by brief periods of limited conflict or by occasional military displays. The PRC insists that Taiwan is a part of China and asserts that the island must one day be reunited with the mainland. Until the early 1990s, the ROC government also viewed Taiwan as an integral part of China and insisted on eventual reunification, albeit under the Chinese Nationalist flag. But in recent years, with democratization opening the system to native Taiwanese, public support for independence has grown, as has the alarm in Beijing. As tensions have grown and the prospect of the resumption of a cross-Strait understanding regarding Taiwan's status has become more remote, stability has depended primarily on military deterrence. For China, such deterrence aims to prevent the final consolidation of Taiwan's separate status. For Taiwan (and the United States), it aims at preventing China from using force to compel reunification on Beijing's terms.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

211. Mounting Humanitarian Catastrophe in Sudan: Implications for U.S. Policy

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary of State Colin Powell will visit Sudan on Tuesday, June 29, stopping first in Khartoum before visiting the war-torn western province of Darfur. Powell will be the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Sudan since Cyrus Vance in 1978. In addition to meetings with Sudanese officials, Powell will confer with UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, who will be in Sudan as part of a three-week tour of Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, Middle East, Asia, and Arab Countries

212. Chechnya Weekly:Observers Note Tenth Anniversary Of Chechen Intervention

Author:
Andrei Smirnov and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
December 11 marked the tenth anniversary of the Russian military intervention that began the first of the two modern Russo-Chechen wars. Russian, Western and Chechen media alike featured commentaries on the start of then President Boris Yeltsin's campaign to “restore constitutional order” in the breakaway republic and what has happened over the intervening decade.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

213. Chechnya Weekly: Turkish Demonstrators Denounce Putin

Author:
Emil Pain and Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Two thousand demonstrators marched in Istanbul, Turkey to protest President Vladimir Putin's visit to Ankara, Newsru.com reported on December 7. The demonstrators carried placards reading “Murderer Putin!” and “Get Out of Turkey!” A group of protesters from among Turkey's large community with roots in the Caucasus laid wreaths at the Russian consulate in Istanbul.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, and Istanbul

214. Chechnya Weekly: Alksnis Wants Soldiers' Mothers Investigated

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Viktor Alksnis, one of the Russian parliament's most strident ultra-nationalists, harshly assailed the Union of Committees of Soldiers' Mothers last week for its recent offer to help promote peace negotiations in Chechnya. Alksnis, a member of the pro-Kremlin Rodina (Motherland) party, called on the federal procuracy to investigate that human-rights movement's sources of funding. The clear implication was that the soldiers' mothers are in league with western forces deliberately seeking to destroy the Russian military.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

215. Chechnya Weekly: Appointed Governors: Disastrous For The Caucasus?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The federal government has no visible long-term strategy for handling the crisis in the North Caucasus, one of Russia's leading specialists in the region told correspondent Dmitry Taratorin of Novye izvestia in an interview published on October 15. “The federal center's policy for the Caucasus can be stated exhaustively in the phrase 'we have power, so we don't need wisdom,'” said Sergei Arutiunov, director of the section for the study of the peoples of the Caucasus in Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

216. Chechnya Weekly: Beslan Terrorists Executed Schoolboys…

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell and Zaindi Choltaev
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Further confirmation that the Beslan terrorists killed schoolboys, not just grown men, in cold blood came in an October 4 article in Novaya gazeta by Kseniya Leonova, who interviewed 14-year-old ex-hostage Andrei Kuznetsov and his mother. Andrei is convinced that his short height saved his life; he said that the terrorists forced his taller schoolmates along with the adult male hostages to carry boxes of weapons up from the basement—”and then they shot many of them.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

217. Chechnya Weekly: Officials Statements On Beslan: A Study In Obfuscation

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
One of the most striking features of the Beslan atrocity and its aftermath has been the unwillingness of Russia's top leadership to state clearly and candidly what it knows, or even what it thinks it knows. Though officials have repeatedly made with an air of great certitude statements that later turned out to be untrue—or could be seen to be manifestly untrue even while those officials were making them—most often these statements have come from mid-echelon officials, not from the very top. Vladimir Putin's public stance has shown a combination of fanaticism and evasiveness. Hence the importance of the detailed oral report to Putin by Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, broadcast in full by the state-controlled electronic media on September 8.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

218. Chechnya Weekly: Officials Statements On Beslan: A Study In Obfuscation

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
One of the most striking features of the Beslan atrocity and its aftermath has been the unwillingness of Russia's top leadership to state clearly and candidly what it knows, or even what it thinks it knows. Though officials have repeatedly made with an air of great certitude statements that later turned out to be untrue—or could be seen to be manifestly untrue even while those officials were making them—most often these statements have come from mid-echelon officials, not from the very top. Vladimir Putin's public stance has shown a combination of fanaticism and evasiveness. Hence the importance of the detailed oral report to Putin by Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov, broadcast in full by the state-controlled electronic media on September 8.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

219. Chechnya Weekly: Some Passports Are More Equal Than Others

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
As readers will recall from the July 28 issue of Chechnya Weekly, the strongest rival to the Kremlin's preferred candidate in this coming weekend's special election for the presidency of Chechnya's pro- Moscow administration was forced out of the race last month. The election authorities claimed that the details in Malik Saidullaev's passport were not fully accurate. In an August 5 article for Novaya gazeta entitled “Passportgate,” Orkhan Dzhemal has found some piquant details about the passport of Kremlin favorite Alu Alkhanov.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

220. Chechnya Weekly: Saidullaev Removed From Chechnya's Presidential Race

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On July 22, the election officials of Chechnya's pro-Moscow administration formally rejected the registration of Malik Saidullaev as a candidate in the republic's special presidential election scheduled for the end of August. The pro-Moscow authorities thus removed from contention the one serious competitor to Kremlin-anointed candidate Alu Alkhanov, who is now being given saturation, Putinstyle coverage by the state-controlled broadcast media.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

221. Chechnya Weekly: Abramov Narrowly Escapes Assassination…

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A mine exploded in Grozny on July 13 just as a large, highly guarded convoy was passing which included the car of Sergei Abramov, who has of course been acting president of Chechnya's pro-Moscow administration since the assassination of Akhmad Kadyrov more than two months ago. Abramov, who was riding an armored Volga limousine, was not harmed—but one of his bodyguards in an accompanying car was killed and another wounded. Abramov's adviser Andrei Aleksintsev was also seriously wounded. An official of the republic's Interior Ministry told journalists that the mine was probably detonated by a remote control.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

222. Chechnya Weekly: Holocaust Museum Hosts Panel On Chechnya

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
This evening (Wednesday, July 14), the U.S. Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C., is to host a panel of experts on the topic “Chechnya after a Decade of Destruction.” Featured speakers are Chechen medical doctor Khassan Baiev, author of The Oath: A Chechen Surgeon Under Fire; Rachel Denber of Human Rights Watch; and photojournalist Stanley Greene, author of Open Wound: Chechnya, 1994-2003. The panel is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

223. Chechnya Weekly: Federal forces failed to block escaping ingushetia raiders.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Just how passive was the federal military during last month's rebel raid on Ingushetia? Issa Kostoev, who represents Ingushetia in the upper house of the federal parliament, provided further revelations in an interview with Sanobar Shermatova published by the weekly Moskovskie novosti on July 1. According to Kostoev, federal forces were summoned from neighboring Chechnya and Northern Ossetia, but halted at the Ingushetian border, just a few kilometers from the guerrilla attacks. “It's obvious even to someone with no military expertise,” he said, “that the guerrillas were going to have to leave [Ingushetia] in the direction of the Assa Gorge [in southern Ingushetia]; all other routes were closed to them. And that is just what they did. One group escaped to the gorge through the village of Nesterovskaya [near Ingushetia's eastern border with Chechnya], another through Surkhakhi and Ekazhevo [just southeast of Nazran]. It would seem that those were the places where they should have been blocked—but that was not done.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

224. Chechnya Weekly: Ingushetia Raids Leave Officials Blaming One Another.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 27, a conflict surfaced between Ingushetia's president Murat Zyazikov and his former employer, the Federal Security Service (FSB). According to a report published that same day by the Newsru.com website, the Ingushetian branch of the FSB claimed it learned in advance that a guerrilla raid was being prepared and warned Zyazikov's Interior Ministry. Zyazikov denied the claim, telling the Interfax news agency that “we did not receive any advance information about preparations for an attack by the guerrillas.” The FSB, however, stuck to its position: According to report posted on the Grani.ru website later on June 27, Sergei Koryakov, head of the FSB's branch in Ingushetia, backed his deputy Andrei Konin's earlier claim that the agency received information about the impending attack half an hour before it started. Directly contradicting Zyazikov, Koryakov continued to insist that the FSB had shared this information with Ingushetia's Interior Ministry. Zyazikov, his turn, was quoted by Izvestia on June 28 as holding fast to his own version. He hinted that those who failed to share advance information—“you know who they are”—were guilty either of “treason, or carelessness, or disorderly behavior, or irresponsibility; I think that all of the above were present in equal measure.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

225. Chechnya Weekly:Guerrillas Strike Ingushetia's Capital.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In what appeared to be a bold escalation in tactics and targeting by Chechnya's separatist guerrillas, the headquarters of Ingushetia's interior ministry in the republic's capital of Nazran was seized on the evening of June 21 by gunmen shouting an Islamic slogan popular among those guerrillas. Such a direct infantry assault on such a key central headquarters of the pro-Moscow authorities, as distinct from a suicide truck-bombing or the clandestine planting of a mine, had not taken place for a long time either in Ingushetia or in Chechnya.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

226. Chechnya Weekly: Ingushetia: last camp closes, but many refugees remain.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 10 the last remaining tents of the last remaining Chechen refugee camp in Ingushetia were dismantled in a modest ceremony. According to a June 11 article by Ivan Sukhov for Vremya Novostei, the authorities decided not to make a grand spectacle of the occasion. Some 576 former residents of the “Satsita” camp returned to Chechnya, while another 90 decided to seek other living quarters within Ingushetia.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

227. Chechnya Weekly: Moscow's body count doesn't add up.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Yelena She sternina is not the first Russian journalist to do it, but she has performed a valuable service by bringing the figures up to date. The correspondent for Russky Kurier reported in that newspaper's June 3 issue on a simple exercise in arithmetic: adding up the cumulative total of rebel guerrillas which the federal forces claim to have killed in the various statements of their press spokesmen, and comparing that total with the number of guerrillas who, according to those same federal military sources, are still fighting. It turns out that if the numbers of those ostensibly killed were accurate, there would not be a single rebel fighter left.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

228. Chechnya Weekly: Final push to drive chechen refugees out of ingushetia?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Russian and Ingush authorities are making what they apparently hope will be the final push in driving Chechen refugees out of their tent camps in Ingushetia. The sole remaining camp, Satsita, is due to be closed on June 10, according to the Federal Migration Service. The deputy head of that agency, Igor Yunash, told the Interfax news agency on May 27 that “there's no point in keeping the camp.” The recent upsurge of violence in Chechnya has apparently had no effect on the authorities' refugee policies.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

229. Chechnya Weekly: Ramzan kadyrov says he knows who killed his father.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In an obscure aside during an interview with the popular weekly Argumenty i Fakty, Ramzan Kadyrov said that he knows who it was who killed his father. He chose not to be more precise except to say that the mastermind of the May 9 assassination was neither Shamil Basaev (who has claimed responsibility) nor Aslan Maskhadov. “Maskhadov does not have enough strength or courage to do such a thing,” Ramzan said. “He was afraid of my father.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

230. Chechnya Weekly: Is Georgia Starting To See Chechnya Moscow's Way?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Georgia's new government under President Mikheil Saakashvili may be tilting toward Russia on Chechnya-related issues in order to win concessions in other areas. In early May, the Paris-based International Federation for Human Rights sent an open letter to Saakashvili expressing concern over two Chechens living in Georgia, Islam Khashiev and Hussein Alkhanov, who may have been secretly handed over to Russian authorities even though a Tbilisi court had acquitted them of violating border regulations. The two have disappeared and reportedly are now in Russian hands.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Paris, Asia, and Georgia

231. Chechnya Weekly: American peace group condemns kadyrov killing.

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The American Committee for Peace in Chechnya (ACPC) has condemned the May 9 assassination of Akhmad Kadyrov, calling on May 10 for a renewed commitment by both parties to end the war through peace negotiations.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, and Asia

232. Chechnya Weekly: Russian Security Agency Report-Edly Targeting Widows

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB; the renamed KGB) appears now to be using a new, stunningly self-defeating tactic to try to forestall possible terrorist attacks: kidnapping widows of Chechen men already killed by those same agencies. A handful of such widows have become suicide bombers, and the FSB is now seizing women for no reason other than that they are widows and therefore might, in theory, become terrorists in the future. According to an April 8 article by Julius Strauss of the London Daily Telegraph, the Russian human rights center Memorial has reported ten such kidnappings in January alone.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

233. Chechnya Weekly: No Letup In Pressure On Refugees

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
According to an Interfax report on March 17, the federal, Chechen and Ingush authorities are continuing with their plans to dismantle the remaining refugee camps in Ingushetia, and human rights activists are continuing to protest that this is a tactic to force refugees to return to Chechnya against their will. Mompash Machuev, deputy head of the Kadyrov administration's committee for refugees, told the news agency that the Sputnik camp in Ingushetia--one of only two that remain in that republic--is to be closed by the end of March, and all its tents dismantled. Lyudmila Alekseeva, head of the Moscow Helsinki Group, commented “I continue to insist that the refugees are returning to Chechnya not voluntarily but because they are being forced to. Those who truly wanted to return have long since done so.”
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, Moscow, and Ingushetia

234. Chechnya Weekly: Minister For Maskhadov Government Surrenders

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Pro-Moscow security agencies in Chechnya won a major victory on March 7 with the surrender of Magomed Khambiev, minister of defense in the underground separatist government of Aslan Maskhadov. Many, though not all, reports of this event in the Russian media have failed to mention the key tactical method by which this victory was apparently achieved: The systematic targeting, kidnapping and torture of the Khambiev family's relatives.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

235. Chechnya Weekly: Pressure Intensifies To Close Ingush Refugee Camps

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
As of March 1, the federal and Ingush authorities had not fully succeeded in their campaign to close all the refugee camps in Ingushetia by that date. But they were getting closer. An official of the Kadyrov administration told Interfax on March 1 that the Bart refugee camp in the Ingush town of Karabulak had been officially closed. That leaves only two tent camps still operating in the Ingush republic: Satsita and Sputnik.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Ingushetia

236. Chechnya Weekly: Newspaper Describes Deplorable Conditions Awaiting Refugess; Human Rights Report Reaches Similar Conclusions

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
What awaits the refugees now living in Ingushetia if the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in its stated goal of getting all of them to return to Chechnya by March? Anna Politkovskaya reported in the February 16 issue of Novayagazeta on her visit to the hamlet of Okruzhnaya on the outskirts of Grozny—which construction workers hired by the Kadyrov administration are supposedly making livable.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Ingushetia

237. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence Required: Chechens Blamed For Subway Bombing

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Last week's terrorist atrocity on the Moscow subway system, in addition to killing dozens of unsuspecting civilians, underlined an ugly reality of Russian politics. The Putin administration has now created, or at least thinks it has created, an emotional atmosphere such that it can blame terrorist acts on Chechens even when there is no specific evidence or claim of responsibility.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

238. Chechnya Weekly: Questions Raised About UN Education Aid

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Jamestown Foundation: Chechnya Weekly Table of Contents Questions Raised About UN Education Aid Pressure Intensifies to Close Refugee Camps Kadyrov Maneuvers For More Influential Role Saudi Arabia and Russia: A Budding Rapprochement? Kremlin Rights Observer is Removed From Post International Community Criticized For Chechnya Response Thoughts on Dubrovka.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Saudi Arabia

239. The China-Taiwan Military Balance: Implications for the United States

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
China's economy is four times the size of Taiwan's and apparently growing at a faster rate; that economic disparity between China and Taiwan could eventually lead to a military disparity as well. Nonetheless, even an informal U.S. security guarantee for Taiwan against nuclear-armed China is ill-advised. Taiwan is not strategically essential to America's national security. Moreover, China has significant incentives to avoid attacking Taiwan. Perhaps the most crucial is that hostile behavior toward Taiwan would jeopardize China's increasing economic linkage with the United States and other key countries.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia

240. Chechnya Weekly: New Questions Arise Over Hostage Rescue Mission

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Did the U.S. and Russian governments both know that, when Russian commandos stormed Moscow's Dubrovka theater in October of 2002, the Chechen terrorists inside it had already agreed to release several of their hostages, including U.S. citizen Sandy Booker? Booker's fiance, Svetlana Gubareva, says that the answer is Yes. Booker and Gubareva's 13-year-old daughter, Sasha, both died in the tragedy; Gubareva was also taken hostage but survived.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

241. Chechnya Weekly: What do Kremlin Changes Mean For Chechnya?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The recent upheavals in the Kremlin, including the resignation of Aleksandr Voloshin as President Vladimir Putinís chief of staff, could portend major changes in the Kremlinís policies on Chechnya. Voloshin was known as a key architect of those policies and especially as a political ally of Akhmad Kadyrov, whose inauguration he attended in person last month. Conversely, the so-called ìsilovikiîó—the hard-liners of the military and secret police establishment, widely seen as the winners in the latest Kremlin faction fightó—have often been hostile to Kadyrov, whom they see as unreliable.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

242. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Security Sweep Victims Still Alive?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Many of the Chechens who have disappeared in “zachistki” security sweeps are still alive in Russian captivity, in the view of human rights activist Kheda Saratova. The head of the Vozvrashchenie (“Return”) foundation told correspondent Aleksandr Kolesnichenko of Novye izvestia that the organization has assembled more than a thousand individual case files. Vozvrashchenie was created only a month ago in Grozny, for the purpose of finding as many of the kidnapped as possible.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

243. Chechnya Weekly: Election Resolves Few Tensions in Chechnya

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The purging from Chechnya's government structures of sup porters of the main opposition candidates in the recent election has apparently intensified since October 5. Marina Perevozkina of Moskovsky komsomolets reported in an October 21 article on her conversation with Salavat Gebertaev. He is the mayor of Urus-Martan, which lies southwest of Grozny, and was one of the leaders of the movement for the Urus-Martan district to secede from Dudaev's jurisdiction in 1994. Dudaev's army stormed his town four times. When Maskhadov came to power, Gebertaev was sentenced to death and for some time hid abroad; after returning he survived an assassination attempt that he believes was organized by Maskhadov's circle. “It would seem,” suggested Perevozkina, “that Moscow should be relying on precisely such people in Chechnya. But Gebertaev is a relative and friend of Malik Saidullaev [who tried to run for president against Kadyrov]. On top of that, he committed a terrible crime: He received from Saidullaev and distributed some 500 wheelchairs and 2,000 crutches. Because of this the head of the district administration told him on the day after the election: “From now on we will not work with you.”
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

244. Chechnya Weekly: Military Voting Yields Unexpected Result

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Among the few surprises to come from Chechnya's election day on October 5, so far the most interesting is the revelation that the Russian troops who took part voted overwhelmingly against Akhmad Kadyrov. A respected Moscow journalist, recently returned from Grozny, told Chechnya Weekly on October 14 that some 90 percent of the Russian troops who cast ballots chose the option (not available in American elections) of voting “against all” of the candidates. The journalist said that the servicemen must have done this under the direction of their commanders, which provides further confirmation of the deep alienation between Kadyrov and the Russian military.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

245. Chechnya Weekly: Shattering the al Qaeda–Chechen Myth

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell and Brian Glyn Williams
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In 1999, U.S. presidential candidate George Bush spoke for much of the American right when he warned the Russians that they “need to resolve the dispute (with the Chechens) peaceably and not be bombing women and children and causing huge num bers of refugees to flee Chechnya.”[1] If the Russians did not stop their brutal second war against the Chechens, which had begun in the fall of 1999, Bush threatened to cut off IMF and Export-Import Bank loans to the former superpower that the Republican right, led by Senator Jesse Helms, still saw as a dangerous manifestation of the USSR.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Asia, and Chechnya

246. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Leveling Accusations at US Officials?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In a remarkably under reported statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently accused lower echelon U.S. government officials of meeting with known Chechen terrorists. On September 20, a few days before flying to the United States for his summit meeting with President George W. Bush, Putin met with several U.S. television journalists. Asked about Chechnya, the Russian president gave a long answer that mostly repeated points that he and his spokesmen have made before. But toward the end of his response he said the following (as translated by Chechnya Weekly from the text placed on the official website Kremlin.ru): “The United States has now voted in the Security Council in favor of recognizing several individuals as international terrorists. The State Department has announced that it has included several figures in its list of international terrorists. But unfortunately we know that on the executive level there are continuing attempts at contacts with some people under the pretense that what's happening is only work with the opposition. Even with people who are included on the United Nations list. These people come, say that they are 'political activists' and present them- selves in all sorts of guises. But I assure you, I know about this precisely—they are maintaining connections with their allies in Afghanistan, including those who have gone there from the Northern Caucasus of Russia and who are fighting with arms in their hands against American soldiers. Such absurdities on the working level must be stopped, the sooner the better.”
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

247. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence of Chechens in Afghanistan

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Have Chechen separatist guerrillas been fighting against the United States and its allies in places such as Iraq or Afghanistan—and if so, how many have been captured or killed? The U.S. government has been strikingly passive in seeking to learn (or, at least, in publicly disclosing) the answer to that question. Chechnya Weekly began pressing for a precise, concrete answer months ago, but we have yet to get one from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

248. Chechnya Weekly: Candidate Drops Out of Presidential Race

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In a surprising announcement, Khusein Dzhabrailov has with drawn his candidacy for the presidency of Chechnya. The Moscow businessman, who had managed to win such potent endorsements as those of Bislan Gantemirov and Ruslan Khasbulatov, failed to give any substantive explanation for his decision. As reported on September 2 by the Lenta.ru website, his office merely announced that he had “come to the conclusion that he can provide significantly greater service to society in his present role.”
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

249. Chechnya Weekly: Crisis For Refugees in Ingushetia

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Pressure against Chechen refugees in Ingushetia has intensified further in recent days, Aleksandr Podrabinek of the newspaper Russky kurier reported on August 18. Hooligans are throwing rocks at the tents during the night, he wrote, and the tents are also being besieged at night by cars that honk their horns so that the refugees cannot sleep. The Kadyrov administration's prime minister, Anatoly Popov, who is now serving formally as “acting president” while Kadyrov pursues his own candidacy, told the news agency Interfax on August 13 that all of the tent camps for Chechen refugees in Ingushetia must be closed by October 1. That is just four days before the election.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Ingushetia

250. Chechnya Weekly: Questions Surround Mosdok Bombing

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Are the Russian authorities lying about the number of casualties caused by the August 1 bombing of the military hospital in Mozdok? According to the official figures, widely disseminated in the Russian and western media, fifty occupants of the hospital complex died and eighty-two were wounded. But the Moscow daily Kommersant has received conflicting versions regarding those figures from a source connected to the criminal-investigative team on the scene. According to this source, the hospital was filled to more than its planned capacity of 150 patients. Also, several tents had been deployed on its grounds, each containing an additional eight to sixteen people. The truck bomb that destroyed the hospital was so powerful that only one wall of the building was left standing and nearby buildings were also damaged.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

251. Chechnya Weekly: Maskhadov Representative Visits Washington

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
About 20 percent of the Kadyrov administration's gunmen are secretly loyal to the secessionist government of President Aslan Maskhadov, a key Maskhadov representative claimed during a visit to Washington last week. Salambek Maigov, Maskhadov's emissary in Moscow, told Chechnya Weekly that former rebel guerrillas constitute the majority of Kadyrov's ostensibly “pro-Moscow” militia. Many of those not now in contact with the rebels, he insisted, “would fight for us if we were to attack Grozny again,” as in 1996.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Washington, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

252. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Amnesty Proposal Raises Host of Questions . . .

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin's amnesty proposal, which last week received preliminary approval from the federal Duma, is intended in large part to serve the same purpose as his March constitutional referendum. That is to create the impression that peace, reconciliation and the rule of law are returning to Chechnya, with the support of all but a few separatist fanatics. But compared to the referendum, the amnesty has a key disadvantage: Most (though not all) of the key issues involve the proposed legislation's formal text, not the largely hidden process by which that text will be put into practice. Ever since the president formally presented his proposal to the Russian parliament on May 12, skeptics have subjected it to withering criticism—most of the specific points of which Putin and his circle have not even seriously tried to address.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

253. Chechnya Weekly: Terror Attacks Suggest Disturbing Trend

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In some few respects—indeed, fewer even than a year ago— Shamil Basaev remains a traditional Chechen rebel rather than a postmodern global terrorist. For one, he takes full, public and personal responsibility for his atrocities. That fact alone casts doubt on the Kremlin's attempts to create the impression that the Chechen separatist movement (of which Basaev in any case represents only a part) is simply an arm of al Qaeda. Another difference is that Basaev has not followed al Qaeda's recent switch to soft targets. A pair of mid-May attacks, which Basaev publicly claimed as his own on May 19, were directed against two of the most heavily defended entities in hyper-militarized Chechnya—a key regional headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB) secret police, and the person of the head of the republic's Moscow- appointed administration.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

254. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

255. Missile Defense in Asia

Author:
Walter B. Slocombe, C. Richard Nelson, Michael P.C. Carns, and Jacques S. Gansler
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The prospect of North Korea developing both nuclear weapons and long–range missiles has been at the core of the U.S. rationale for early deployment of a missile defense and of Japan's interest in defense for itself. In the face of North Korea's missile programs and its acknowledgement of an active program to develop nuclear weapons, the problem of defense against those weapons assumes new urgency — as does the question of how defenses affect the broader dynamic of security in Northeast Asia.
Topic:
Security and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and North Korea

256. Coast Guards: New Forces For Regional Order and Security

Author:
Sam Bateman
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) created new maritime law and extended maritime jurisdiction that were ex-pected to justify naval expansion. To some extent this has been so, but another trend is also apparent. Regional navies are concentrating on war-fighting capabilities while existing coast guards are being expanded and some countries are establishing coast guards for the first time. The protection of off-shore areas and resources is a central element of national security for most regional countries and an important consideration in nation building and governance. Coast Guards are emerging as important national institutions in Asia and the Pacific with the potential to make a major contribution to regional order and security. This development reflects a concern for coop-erative and comprehensive security and will facilitate regional maritime cooperation and confidence building. It is a positive factor for regional order and security and may constitute a revolution in maritime strategic thinking.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

257. Missing a Target: Missile Testing and U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the course of a few days at the end of May, Iran conducted a missile test; Pakistan conducted three such tests; and Israel launched a reconnaissance satellite. Each of these instances serve as proof, if any were needed, that missiles are becoming an important part of the military scene in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The question for Washington is how the growing sophistication of Middle East/Southwest Asian missiles will affect the stability of this volatile region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Arabia

258. The Federal Option for Afghanistan

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The future security and stability of Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus–all struggling to deal with the simultaneous forces of terrorism, crime, narcotics, poverty, and disease–require a successful political and economic transformation in Afghanistan. A federal system was rejected in favor of aunitary state structure for Afghanistan, but the government of Hamid Karzai has faced great difficulty extending central authority much beyond Kabul. New questions about state-building there and elsewhere in the region should compel policymakers to reconsider federalism among a range of options for how best to organize this complex and diverse society. Although critics charge that a federal solution to state organization enhances social cleavages and fosters instability, federalism could be aviable and effective option if constructed to minimize the power and influence of the demographically dominant group.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Asia, and Kabul

259. Transatlantic Energy Security and the Caspian Basin: Moving Towards a Common Agenda

Author:
Adam N. Stulberg and Hendrik Cosijn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Once considered an impediment to stable development and a catalyst for a new “Great Game,” Caspian energy may play a stabilizing role in world markets and geopolitics after all. With the West's growing dependence on hydrocarbon imports, growing tensions in the Middle East, and Moscow's emergence as a major player in 21st century energy politics, the Caspian region is poised to become a focal point for cooperation between the United States, Europe, and Russia. Policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and Moscow share a common interest in preventing the Caspian Basin from lapsing into another Persian Gulf, where windfalls in oil revenues have fueled instability and extremism. They also recognize that efforts to extract and export Caspian energy must advance regional development and stability. Thus far, however, shared interests have not yielded real transatlantic partnership on Caspian energy issues. Different strategic orientations and preferred approaches for unlocking Caspian energy threaten to mar prospects for broadening and deepening transatlantic cooperation in the region. To date, the U.S., Europe, and Russia have pursued parochial interests in the Caspian Basin without much regard for each other. The time is ripe for American, European, and Russian policymakers to take stock of the burgeoning confluence of interests, mount a concerted effort to prevent backsliding, and cement a common agenda by forging a trilateral dialogue on Caspian energy issue.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, and Moscow

260. The United States, Europe, and Russia: Toward a Global Energy Security Policy

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Together, the United States, Europe, and Russia can help to diversify the global energy supply by creating a Global Strategic Petroleum Reserve (GSPR) filled largely with oil from Russia and other states in the Caspian Basin. Such a move would mitigate U.S. and European dependence on Middle East oil and help to stabilize world oil prices. Other important beneficiaries of a GSPR would be the Asia-Pacific economies outside the OECD that currently lack strategic reserves. A GSPR offering access to China and other Asian economies would help anchor these states in an important, positive-sum arrangement that highlights shared energy security interests with Russia and the West. If managed responsibly, creating the GSPR will not antagonize OPEC countries, which themselves benefit from stable energy markets. Moreover, developing the GSPR will encourage the reform and modernization of Russian and other transition countries' energy economies and give real substance to collaboration on energy issues between Russia, the EU, and the U.S. If coupled with close collaboration on Caspian energy development, the creation of a GSPR would make U.S. and EU energy ties with Russia and its neighbors sources of substantial, long-term strength.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

261. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

262. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?

Author:
Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

263. The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To prosecute the war on terrorism, President Bush has assembled a diverse coalition of countries for political, diplomatic, and military support. Some of those countries are long-standing friends and allies of the United States. Others have new or changing relationships with the United States. Although there may be a price for their support, America should not pay an excessive price—one that could be detrimental to longer-term U.S. national security interests. And though it may be necessary to provide a certain amount of immediate aid (directly or indirectly) as a quid pro quo for the support of other nations in our war on terrorism, the United States needs to avoid longer-term entanglements, openended commitments, and the potential for an extreme anti-American backlash.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

264. Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan

Author:
Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
When he pledged to do whatever was necessary—even use U.S. military forces—to help Taiwan defend itself, President George W. Bush seemingly replaced Washington's long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” with a policy of strategic clarity. Although the president and his advisers subsequently retreated from his initial rhetorical stance, both China and Taiwan are likely to believe that Bush's original statement accurately reflects U.S. policy. That creates an extremely dangerous situation for the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Asia

265. Assessing Central Asia's Role in he Antiterror Campaign

Author:
Sheila Heslin
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the attacks of September 11, Central Asia has emerged as a key frontline region in the war against Osama bin Laden's terrorism network and his state-sponsor in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

266. China And US Foreign Policy In The Asia-Pacific: Living With American Dominance

Author:
Mike Smith and Nicholas Khoo
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Since the end of the Second World War, US foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific has been characterized by the assertion of American dominance. To this end, policy-makers in Washington have adopted a varied policy towards China. From 1950 to 1972, the US pursued a containment policy designed to thwart the revolutionary goals of Maoist foreign policy. Beginning with Nixon's rapprochement with Beijing in 1972, US policy was dramatically altered to meet the overriding goal of deterring the Soviet threat. The US and China actively cooperated to contain Soviet and Vietnamese influence in Northeast and Southeast Asia. The end of the Cold War, preceded shortly before by the Tiananmen massacre, saw another shift in the US position, whereby China was no longer looked upon with favour in Washington. Acting on his presidential campaign promises not to repeat George Bush Senior's policy of 'coddling dictators'in Beijing, President Clinton initially enacted a policy that explicitly linked China's human rights record to the renewal of most favoured- nation trade status with the US. When this linkage failed, a striking policy reversal occurred as the Clinton administration adopted an unrestrained engagement policy in which it eventually underplayed Sino-US differences in the spheres of trade, human rights, and strategic-military ties.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Washington, Beijing, and Asia

267. Environmental Security In Central Asia

Author:
Stuart Horsman
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The summer of 2000 witnessed a drought that decimated crops throughout Central Asia. Previously, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev raised the spectre of water-inspired insecurity in Central Asia, and in March an OSCE delegation visited the Central Asian republics to discuss water management issues.
Topic:
Security, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Kazakhstan and Asia

268. "Déjà vu all over again?" Why Dialogue Won't Solve the Kashmir Dispute

Author:
Arun R. Swamy
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The intensification of a long-standing dispute between India and Pakistan over the state of Kashmir has become the cause of international concern. The stakes for these nuclear-armed rivals are high. Each views Kashmir as the validation of its national ideology; each fears that giving it up will result in serious domestic turmoil. Moreover, each country has plausible legal arguments for its claims along with a long history of grievances. The deep differences over Kashmir that divide the two countries have so far proven intractable, and following September 11 the movement toward confrontation accelerated. There has never been a more urgent need for international attention to Kashmir. While diplomatic engagement seems necessary for a resolution of this dispute, past results indicate that simply pressuring the two sides to talk may be disastrous. In order to avoid such results, any effort to intervene in this dispute must be undertaken with an awareness of how it evolved, why it has been so difficult to resolve, and what kinds of solutions to it might realistically be pursued.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Kashmir

269. Japan's Uneasy Citizens and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sheila A. Smith
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. and Japanese policy-makers have successfully reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Yet, even as they have done so, a series of events has revealed a deeper ambivalence in Japan about the terms of the alliance. These events began with the 1995 rape of a school girl in Okinawa by U.S. servicemen, focusing attention on the social costs to residents of hosting U.S. forces. In 1999 came North Korea's launch of a missile over Japan, raising doubts among many Japanese about their alliance partner's ability to protect them. Most recently, the outcome of the 2001 sinking of the Ehime Maru training ship by a U.S. nuclear sub seemed to many to sacrifice Japanese citizens' interests to those of the U.S. military. Taken independently, these developments may seem temporary set-backs to policymakers, but together they suggest that there is increasing impatience among Japan's citizens with the way the alliance is managed. This disconnect between the public and policymakers could, if untended, have serious implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and North Korea

270. Assessing The Arab 'Yellow Light' On A Palestinian; Unilateral Declaration Of Independence

Author:
Kenneth W. Stein
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Clinton will again meet his two Camp David partners—though not yet in scheduled three-way talks during this week's Millennium Summit, six weeks after the conclusion of their inconclusive Camp David negotiations. In the August interval, each side sent leaders and diplomats jetting about Europe, Asia, and the Middle East offering their spin on what was offered at the summit, what went wrong, and what needed to be done next. In stark contrast to the effective news black-out that governed Camp David, world leaders have, over the past month, been pitched one, two, or even three sets of briefings about each side's views and where the negotiations should go from here.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arab Countries

271. In Focus: Central Asia: Aral Sea Problem

Author:
Erika Weinthal
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
U.S. foreign policy is geared toward oil development in Central Asia. The Aral Sea crisis has offered a safe issue-area in which to exert U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia. Effectively mitigating the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia has proven more difficult than originally conceived by U.S. and Central Asian policymakers.
Topic:
Security, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Asia

272. International -- Problematic Piracy

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
Topic:
Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore

273. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

274. Barak's Complex Foreign Policy Agenda

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak will not get a period of grace or a post-election honeymoon. Immediately upon taking office, he faces a number of pressing issues. Many of these are domestic - including religious-secular relations and economic concerns.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia