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Begin New Search Political Geography Arabia Content Type Policy Brief

101. On the Record

Author:
Mohammed ElBaradei
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
"For years, the West has bought Mr. Mubarak's demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood lock, stock and barrel, the idea that the only alternative here are these demons called the Muslim Brotherhood who are the equivalent of Al Qaeda's... I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression."
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Vienna

102. Egypt's Security Forces: A Key Factor in the Crisis

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The current wave of protests in Egypt has pitted thousands of demonstrators against the police and Central Security Forces (CSF). The performance of these forces is key to the outcome of the crisis. If they can contain the demonstrations without excessive violence, the protests will likely burn themselves out over time. But if the demonstrations continue or escalate into greater violence, the police and CSF could break down, either dissolving entirely or engaging in undisciplined violence that further exacerbates the situation. Such a scenario, or even the likelihood of it, would probably spur the government to deploy army personnel to support the security forces, deter further demonstrations, and, if necessary, put down the protests through force. That would be a true crisis for the government, one with an uncertain outcome.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Arabia and Egypt

103. Will Egypt's 'Day of Rage' Become a Revolution?

Author:
J. Scott Carpenter and David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Inspired by events in Tunisia, tens of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets on January 25 in major cities from Alexandria to Cairo, the largest demonstrations to hit the country since the bread riots of the 1970s. The government, which did not initially confront demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square, finally took forceful action to remove them late last night. Today, January 26, the Interior Ministry announced that public gatherings and protests will no longer be tolerated; there were further clashes in Cairo and Suez. More protests are anticipated after Friday prayers (January 28). Will the government's tactics quell the demonstrations or cause them to spread? And what approach should Washington take?
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Washington, Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, and Cairo

104. The Arab Revolt: Roots and Perspectives

Author:
Vicken Cheterian
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Arab revolt that started in Tunisia and over¬threw the reign of Zein El-Abedeen Ben Ali is taking the form of a huge wave. The regime of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, the central state of the Arab World, followed suit. Uprising in Libya continues, in spite of attempts by the Kaddhafi regime to kill it in blood and fire. Ali Abdallah Saleh of Yemen declared that he will not seek a new mandate, a concession which only emboldened both opposition and youth revolt. King Abdallah of Jordan sacked the unpopular government of Samir Rifai, and named Maruf Bakhit as the new prime minister and asked him to bring “true political reforms”. In a word, the entire Arab World is facing an unprecedented wave of revolt.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Economics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

105. Defusing Egypt's Demographic Time Bomb

Author:
Raymond Gilpin, Amal A. Kandeel, and Paul Sullivan
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Limited opportunities for economic progress and political expression helped force Egypt's youthful population on the streets and precipitated the demise of long-time leader Hosni Mubarak. Prospects for stability are linked to the government's ability to address youth employment—a core demand of the protesters. The January/February 2011 protests could be the tip of the iceberg. Robust and sustained action is needed to improve human security, starting with employment and income generation opportunities. An effective economic transition in Egypt need not be a zero-sum game. Done correctly, employment-based economic restructuring that focuses on the most vulnerable (and volatile) segments of the population could lay the foundation for a stronger, stable and more peaceful Egypt. The next steps in Egypt's revolution will tackle the difficult task of expanding economic opportunity and providing space for more representative, accountable and participatory governance. Fundamentally, this would require the Egyptian government and military to progressively cede control of the levers of economic power. Employment creation that focuses on the youth is not a silver bullet and will not guarantee success on its own. It will, however, broaden the constituency for reform by making Egypt's youth bulge more involved in shaping the destiny of the country's 82 million citizens.
Topic:
Demographics and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

106. The Foreign Fighter Phenomenon: Islam and Transnational Militancy

Author:
Thomas Hegghammer
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
A salient feature of armed conflict in the Muslim world since 1980 has been the involvement of so-called foreign fighters. These foreign fighters are unpaid combatants with no apparent link to the conflict other than religious affinity with the Muslim side. Since 1980, between 10,000 and 30,000 such fighters have inserted themselves into conflicts from Bosnia in the west to the Philippines in the east.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Middle East, Philippines, and Arabia

107. Slippery Slope: Libya and the Lessons of Previous No-Fly Zones

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, at the close of the 1991 Gulf War, the imposition of a UN-mandated no-fly zone contributed to the formation of a safe haven for Iraqi Kurds, resulting in the liberation of nearly three million people from Baathist dictatorship a full decade before the rest of Iraq. In 1992, new UN-mandated no-fly and no-drive zones were established in southern Iraq and the Balkans to contain rogue regimes and protect civilians from government repression. Given the current developments in Libya, it is natural to consider employing such options once again. Yet history shows that exclusion zones are particularly tricky operations. If not configured properly, they can be worse than useless, signaling fecklessness instead of resolve while providing little real protective value to civilians.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, United Nations, Balkans, and North Africa

108. Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

109. Israel's Strategic Concerns over Upheaval in Egypt

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt caught Israel by surprise. Awe-inspiring as they are to Israel's government and people, these revolutions and the ongoing troubles in Bahrain and Libya are also of immense concern to Israel because of their potential strategic ramifications. Going forward, developments in Egypt will be particularly important given Cairo's traditional role in the region and the special nature of its diplomatic, security, and economic relations with Israel.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia

110. 'The Last Bullet': Qadhafi and the Future of Libya

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last bullet," which suggests even more horrific levels of violence and anarchy. In a rambling television broadcast today, February 22, the colonel pledged to "die as a martyr."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

111. Gaza: The Next Israeli-Palestinian War?

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Will the next Middle East conflagration involve Israelis and Palestinians? After the serious escalation of the past week in which eight Gazans, including children, were killed in a single day, and the 23 March 2011 bombing in Jerusalem, that took the life of one and wounded dozens, there is real reason to worry. The sharp deterioration on this front is not directly related, nor is it in any way similar to the events that have engulfed the Middle East and North Africa. But the overall context of instability and uncertainty undoubtedly has made a volatile situation even more so. Israelis' anxiety is rising and with it the fear that outside parties might seek to provoke hostilities to divert attention from domestic problems and shift the focus back to Israel. Hamas has been emboldened by regional events and is therefore less likely to back down from a challenge. The combination, as recent days have shown, has proven combustible.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Jerusalem, Gaza, Arab Countries, and North Africa

112. The Arab uprising: Causes, prospects and implications

Author:
Timo Behr and Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia have been triggered by a combination of deteriorating living standards and growing inequality (an economic deficit), a lack of political freedoms and public accountability (a political deficit), and the alienation of the demographically dominant age cohorts from the political order (a dignity deficit). While similar conditions exist in a number of Arab countries, socio-economic indicators suggest that the intensity of these deficits varies considerably across the Arab world. As a result, the nature and shape of protests across the region might differ. However, protests across the region have also been driven by a powerful “contagion effect” working on an ideational and emotional level. This contagion has been facilitated by satellite broadcasters, mobile phones, the internet, and new social media tools that elude government control and helped create new cleavages and loyalties. The outcome of the mass protests is likely to vary in accordance with the nature and level of cohesion of the incumbent regimes and their ability to maintain their monopoly on the use of force. While in some cases this might lead to a democratic transition from the bottom up, in other cases the outcome may be more gradual top-down reforms, a government crackdown on protestors or even a disintegration of the state. On a systemic level, the Arab uprising will create a new political and economic reality in the Middle East and transform the regional balance of power. While Western influence in the region will inevitably decline as a result, the Arab revolutions also have an undeniable potential to enhance regional cooperation, reduce the appeal of terrorism and help break the current deadlock in the peace process.
Topic:
Regime Change, Insurgency, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia

113. Gandhi and Gaddafi: The Nonviolent Road to Revolution?

Author:
Gautam Adhikari
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
After being wondrously jolted by the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, the world watches Libya anxiously. Its neighbors on either side have carried out the once unthinkable. They have toppled sturdy old Arab dictatorships in weeks flat through, by and large, nonviolent civil disobedience. Is it now Libya's drive on the same road?
Topic:
Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

114. Constitutional Reform in Transitional States: Challenges and Opportunities Facing Egypt and Tunisia

Author:
Jason Gluck
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Countries emerging from authoritarianism frequently face constitutional challenges, among them sequencing constitutional reform with a transition to democracy, designing a constitutional review process that is seen as legitimate, and addressing substantive constitutional concerns. Sequencing constitutional reform and elections begs the questions who should lead the constitutional reform and when should it be conducted. Constitutional reform prior to elections can leave stewardship over the constitution-making process to unelected and perhaps not wholly trusted transitional governments. Elections prior to constitutional reform may be tantamount to simply handing the machinery of authoritarianism to a new set of actors. Egypt and Tunisia offer different paths to transition and each face criticism. In the end, a less “democratic” solution might be the best one. Whatever the chosen process for constitutional reform, legitimacy must remain the sine non qua of a successful constitution-making moment. Adherence to guiding principles of inclusivity, participation, transparency, consensus and national ownership can legitimize the constitution-making process and the final document itself. Just as the history, society, culture, and preferences of every country is unique, so too is every constitution. Certain common issues, however, are likely to be front and center for countries transitioning from authoritarian rule to democracy. This Peace Brief offers a brief examination of many of these commonly recurring issues.
Topic:
Democratization and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

115. Counterrevolution in the Gulf

Author:
Toby C. Jones
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia is pursuing a combination of domestic and regional policies that risk destabilizing the Persian Gulf and that risk undermining the United States interests there. Amid calls for political change, Saudi Arabia is failing to address pressing concerns about its political system and the need for political reform. Instead of responding favorably to calls for more political openness, the Kingdom is pursuing a risky domestic agenda, which ignores the social, economic, and political grievances that might fuel popular mobilization.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

116. Preventing Arab-Kurd Conflict in Iraq after the Withdrawal of U.S. Forces

Author:
Emma Sky
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since the fall of the former regime in 2003, there has been continuous concern that fighting might break out between the Arabs and the Kurds over Kirkuk and the boundary of the Kurdistan Regional Government.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

117. Analyzing Post-Conflict Justice and Islamic Law

Author:
Whitney Parker, Scott Worden, Shani Ross, and Sahar Azar
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Post-conflict justice mechanisms such as truth commissions, war crimes tribunals and reparations programs have emerged as a fundamental building block of durable peace settlements in Latin America, Africa and Asia. They are relatively rare, however, in Muslim countries recovering from conflict-despite the fact that social and criminal justice is a fundamental principle of Islamic law.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Crime, Islam, War, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, Arabia, and Latin America

118. Between conditionality and engagement: Revisiting the EU's democracy promotion in the Eastern neighbourhood

Author:
Kristi Raik
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU needs to place a stronger emphasis on promoting democracy in its Eastern neighbourhood. A new approach should combine limited, focused conditionality with increased openness and multi-level linkages. Conditionality is often effective in promoting faster and better reforms where the home-grown will to democratise is present (as in Moldova, for example). It is not likely to work as a transformative policy, bringing about change from authoritarianism to democracy in the neighbourhood. The goal of tying neighbours to Europe should prevail over the principle of political conditionality. Economic integration and visa freedom have to be pursued with all neighbouring countries. This makes democratisation more likely to occur in the longer term. Engagement, providing it is not limited to political leaders, can be a successful strategy to push for democratic change. Cooperation with (semi-)authoritarian governments has to be accompanied by strong support for civil society and multiple links with the populations. Ukraine is a test case of the EU's ability to use association agreements as a tool for democracy promotion. The involvement of neighbours in the negotiation process offers a possibility to shape their domestic agendas. At the same time, there must be 'red lines': the EU should emphasize that it will not sign the agreements with countries having major problems with democracy.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe and Arabia

119. On the Record: Mourning Usama bin Laden

Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following is a sampling of reactions from various Islamist leaders, commentators, and organizations following the death of Usama bin Laden.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

120. The Many Faces of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

Author:
Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (“Tandhim Al Qaeda fi Bilad Al Maghrib Al Islami”, commonly referred to by its French acronym AQMI) is a reformed version of an Algerian terrorist group formed in September 1998, Al Jama'a Al Salafiya lil Da'wa wal Qital (Salafist Group for Predication and Combat, GSPC). Born in the context of the waning Algerian civil war that had raged in that country between 1992 and 1998, with an estimated 150,000 dead, the GSPC carried with it three consequential elements: the violent legacy of the civil war and its heavy toll on Algerian society; an entrenched radical Islamist identity prone to armed violence; and a design on the part of this group to not disarm and perpetuate its armed insurrection.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa

121. Strategic Pretence or Strategic Defence? Britain, France and the Common Security and Defence Policy after Libya

Author:
Julian Lindley-French
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
With British and French aircraft undertaking most of the air operations over Libya and some fiftyfive years on from the Suez debacle, historical irony abounds. On November 2 2010, London and Paris agreed the Defence and Security Cooperation Treaty1 (see box below). On the face of it the accord is by and large military-technical: to develop co-operation between British and French Armed Forces, to promote the sharing and pooling of materials and equipment including through mutual interdependence, and leading to the building of joint facilities. This it is hoped will promote mutual access to each other's defence markets, through the promotion of industrial and technological co-operation. But what has the treaty to do with the European Union (EU) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)? Does the treaty mark the first step on the road to regalvanising Europe's strategic defence or is it simply the strategic pretence of two aging, failing powers unable to accept a world that has moved on?
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Britain, France, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

122. Transition in Arab States: Time for an "EU-Master Plan"

Author:
Walter Feichtinger
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The revolts in Tunisia and Egypt were effective in ousting the regimes of Ben Ali and Mubarak, bringing rumor and protests to Yemen, Syria and other places and starting a violent revolution against Muammar Gaddafi – but it remains to be seen whether the abrupt achieved cohesion among the protesters will overcome the political transformation and bridge long existing gaps between the various groups and factions in these countries. Demonstrations in Tunisia, and also in Egypt, indicate that there is limited cohesion and tolerance within politics and civil society when it comes to tackling daily problems and finding lasting solutions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia

123. The Great Arab Revolution: Challenges, Dilemmas and Opportunities?

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Beyond noting the fluidity, ambiguity and ambivalence associated with the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, there is little consensus on causes and likely consequences. Do these geopolitical earthquakes constitute an “Arab Spring” leading to transition democratization, akin to 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe? Or should we look to 1979 in Iran, and the prospect of Sunni rather than Shia theocracy taking hold? Might the wider Muslim world – Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Turkey – provide alternative potential governance models for the MENA region, given indigenous variants appear exhausted and no longer able to self-reproduce? What are the lessons which other MENA incumbent regimes and the international community will identify? How might those lessons be learned?
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

124. The CSDP after Lisbon: Lost Opportunities or Changed Interests?

Author:
Antti Kaski
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The purpose of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty was to enhance the unity of the member states' foreign policies and the coherence of the external action of the European Union (EU). As manifested recently by the lack of unity and delayed action in the wake of the Arab revolutions, the EU still has considerable work to do before it can claim to have become a global heavyweight in foreign and security policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, and Lisbon

125. A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: For a Comprehensive and Incremental Approach

Author:
Marc Finaud
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The 2010 Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference reaffirmed “the importance of the Resolution on the Middle East adopted by the 1995 Review and Extension Conference”, which had been “an essential element of […] the basis on which the Treaty was indefinitely extended”. Indeed, Arab countries had joined consensus in exchange for a call on “all States in the Middle East” (including Israel) “to take practical steps […] aimed at making progress towards […] an effectively verifiable Middle East zone free of [WMD] and their delivery systems”, and on “all States party to the [NPT], and in particular the nuclear-weapon States […] with a view to ensuring the early establishment by regional parties of [such a zone]”. Fifteen years later, the 2010 Review Conference could understandably “regre[t] that little progress ha[d] been achieved”.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

126. The United States in Iraq: Options for 2012

Author:
Sean Kane and William Taylor
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With U.S. military forces scheduled to depart Iraq in December of this year, the State Department and other civilian agencies are being asked to assume a scale of operational and programmatic responsibilities far beyond any other embassy in recent memory. The capacity of the U.S. civilian agencies to assume these responsibilities does not now fully exist. Notably, securing and moving U.S. civilians will require more than 5,000 security contractors. A limited U.S. military contingent post-2011 may well be more cost-effective than private security guards and could also relieve State and other civilian agencies of logistical and security responsibilities. This would enable them to focus on their comparative advantages: diplomacy and development assistance. Planning for the post-2011 U.S. mission in Iraq, however, remains hampered by uncertainty as to whether the Iraqi government will request an extension of the American military presence in the country. A small follow-on U.S. military force would appear to safeguard Iraqi stability and make the achievement of U.S. strategic objectives in Iraq more likely, but cannot be counted on. Should such a request not be received from the Iraqi government, the U.S. may need to reduce the planned scale and scope of its operations and goals in Iraq.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

127. Sifting Through the Layers of Insecurity in the Sahel: The Case of Mauritania

Author:
Cédric Jourde
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Until recently, the Sahel (as-Sahil), literally the “shore” of the Saharan “sea,” rarely made headlines. Nevertheless, the expanding nexus of illicit trafficking and transnational Islamist terrorism—and the increasingly serious risk this poses to stability in the region and to international security—is attracting growing attention. These concerns will likely mount as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) attempts to use the window of opportunity presented by the Arab Spring to reestablish itself in North Africa while transitional governments there devote much of their energy to rebuilding state institutions. In turn, an unstable North Africa, especially Libya, could further exacerbate insecurity in the Sahel as unsecured weapons and trained mercenaries filter their way into the region.
Topic:
Security, Crime, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Arabia, and Mauritania

128. A Raid from the Sea: The Gaza Flotilla Attack and Blockade under Legal Scrutiny

Author:
Ufuk Ulutas
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The publication of the Palmer report written by the panel of inquiry established by the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon once again brought the 31 May 2010 Gaza Flotilla incident and the blockade of Gaza back to world's attention. On May 31, 2010, Israeli commandos stormed a passenger ship, the Mavi Marmara, the largest boat of a flotilla of six boats which were carrying 10000 tons of humanitarian aid to besieged Gaza, in international high waters. The operation left 9 activists dead and over 30 activists wounded. The Israeli military assault against the Mavi Marmara immediately ignited worldwide protests and condemnation. Turkey, whose citizens were attacked by Israeli soldiers in international high waters, 72 miles away from the Gazan coast, took the lead in protests and condemnation. Israel, however, claimed that the demonstrators on the Mavi Marmara were aiming to break the blockade of Gaza and the Israeli commandos were forced onboard to react in an act of self-defense.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

129. Getting on the Right Track: The EU Eastern Partnership

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The EU's Eastern Partnership with the Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus and Azerbaijan has now been in place for two years. But the EU is not looking eastwards much these days – it is looking inwards to tackle the aftermath of the financial crisis, and south to the Arab Spring. At the same time, the enthusiasm of the Eastern partners seems to be fading. The EU Commission's recent review of the European Neighborhood Policy points in the right direction but if the partnership is to make any sense, it is necessary to make it more attractive.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, and Arabia

130. After the Quartet Statement: Is Abbas the Odd Man Out?

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of the UN speeches and Netanyahu's acceptance of unconditional talks, Abbas now seems to be the odd man out, though renewed Israeli construction in east Jerusalem could alter that dynamic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Arabia

131. The Palestinian Bid for UN Membership: Rationale, Response, Repercussions

Author:
David Makovsky, Ghaith al-Omari, and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Palestinian decision to appeal to the UN is rooted in frustration with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government and the conviction that negotiations are futile at the moment. Furthermore, they believe that President Obama's efforts, while admirable, will not produce results. These beliefs -- combined with the sense of urgency imparted by the Arab Spring and the growing perception that the Palestinian leadership can no longer back down from the initiative -- makes it likely that they will head to the UN this month as planned.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations

132. Libya: Beyond Regime Change

Author:
Henrik Boesen Lindbo Larsen
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
NATO's intervention in Libya has highlighted the risks connected with enforcement of humanitarian principles in Europe's neighbourhood through engaging in regime change. The EU now seems to remain the only viable forum if the Western states wish to play a more permanent role in Libya.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

133. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict – The need for an international solution

Author:
Helle Malmvig and Leila Stockmarr
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
If the Middle East Quartet is to regain its relevance and the Obama Administration to deliver on its promise of a New Beginning, a new internationally-sanctioned framework is long overdue.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

134. Yemen: Fragile lives in hungry times

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The promise of what came to be known as the Arab Spring, which dawned in North Africa, sweeping into the Arabian Gulf and up through the Middle East, has foundered in Yemen. Political turmoil has taken hold and reform has stalled, sparking renewed insecurity, devastating an already frail economy, and triggering a national fuel crisis that has in turn driven rising levels of hunger. Levels of child malnutrition in some regions are among the worst in the world. While billions of dollars have been donated to Tunisia, Libya, and to a lesser extent Egypt to rebuild their economies, Yemenis are facing chronic hunger and have few resources at their disposal. While the eyes of the world are on other countries experiencing major upheaval, Yemen must not be forgotten. Leaving the country to simmer and collapse in slow motion will lead to far greater humanitarian and security concerns.
Topic:
Poverty, Food, and Famine
Political Geography:
Middle East, Norway, Yemen, Arabia, United Nations, and Egypt

135. Syrian Uprising: Looking In, Looking Out

Author:
Amr al-Azm
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Syrian regime was initially able to count on its neighbors in two key areas: ensuring that their territories do not become a safe haven for Syrian dissidents and continuing to receive their support on the regional and international level. This support has since eroded as a result of the regime's inability to contain the ever-escalating level of violence being perpetrated against the protesters. The gravest concern for the regime is the emergence of a Benghazi scenario in a city like Aleppo as a result of Turkish military intervention. The Syrian regime now finds itself in an ever-increasing cycle of isolation and increased internal repression.
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

136. From Endearment to Estrangement: Turkey's Interests and Concerns in Syria

Author:
Yigal Schleifer
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Turkish relations with the Syrian regime have developed at a dizzying pace over the last 15 years, going from outright hostility to close cooperation and back to estrangement. Prior to the current uprising, Turkey looked at Syria as a cornerstone in its plans to become a political, economic and “moral” leader in the Middle East. Ankara has deep concerns regarding developments in Syria, particularly in terms of the domestic repercussions of any Syrian political instability or social upheaval. These concerns shaped Ankara's initial caution in completely breaking with Damascus and could still limit the scope of Turkish action against the Assad regime.
Topic:
Regime Change and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Arabia, and Syria

137. Baghdad's Wary Support for the Syrian Status Quo

Author:
Sean Kane and Elie Abouaoun
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iraq's reaction to the popular uprising in Syria is mostly determined by the chaos its Shiite-led government believes would follow the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Baghdad possesses limited ability to influence the course of events in Syria, but is using this to provide modest support to the Assad regime. The fractured and sectarian nature of Iraqi politics, however, militates against Baghdad developing a decisive position on the way forward in Syria.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

138. Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

139. Extending Libya's Transitional Period: Capitalizing on the Constitutional Moment

Author:
Jason Gluck
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The National Transitional Council (NTC) new Constitutional Declaration is a critical development in Libya's transition to democracy. But while most features of the document are very positive, the relatively short timeline for the transition may create significant challenges.
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia and North Africa

140. Jordan and the Current Unrest in Syria

Author:
Edward W. Gnehm Jr
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Government of Jordan is deeply concerned about the turmoil in Syria, fearing the spillover effect and knowing Syria's historic capacity to undermine Jordanian internal stability. Initial official Jordanian reaction has been cautious, to avoid antagonizing Syria and provoking retaliation. There is great anxiety over what may follow the collapse of the Assad regime. Jordan is under increased pressure from both internal elements and external powers to toughen its public posture toward Damascus. Ultimately, Amman will react carefully to events in Syria, taking actions that best ensure the security of the state and the survival of the monarchy.
Topic:
Security, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

141. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria

142. Debt Relief for Egypt?

Author:
John Williamson and Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The current government of Egypt has frequently stated that external financial assistance is necessary in the present economic situation and has expressed a strong preference for receiving it in part via debt relief. The question asked in this policy brief is whether there is a case for debt relief and if so what form this relief should take. This policy brief reviews a number of cases in which debt relief has been granted to draw out the lessons and implications for Egypt.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Arabia, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt

143. Power to the People? Reactions to the EU's response to the Arab Spring

Author:
Jamie Balfour-Paul
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The EU has a long history of co-operation with the Arab region. Its economic and security interests in the region are considerable. In line with the European Consensus on Development, respect for human rights and democracy have been explicit values within EU development policies. Past EU co-operation in the region, especially in health and education, has achieved successes and enabled people to claim certain rights.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

144. Palestinian UN Vote and Triple-faced EU Policies

Author:
Patrycja Sasnal and Daniel Levy
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The question of recognising the Palestinian state has once again revealed deep divisions within the EU, its weakness and marginality of the problem in light of the euro crisis. In the following study Patrycja Sasnal examines the Palestinian options at the United Nations and claims that the EU can still save face and make a difference in the Peace Process by unanimously abstaining or voting in favour of the Palestinian state, depending on the wording of the resolution. Daniel Levy then gives reasons for why a "yes" vote at the UN can advance the Peace Process. In a chaotic and changing Middle East the immediate goal is to avoid another round of violence between the conflicted parties.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

145. How Terrorist Leaders End: Implications for the Future of the Struggle with al-Qaeda

Author:
Kacper Rękawek
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 2 May 2011, U.S. special forces killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, during a raid in the Pakistani town of Abbottabad. From 1988 onwards he led the first truly transnational, if not global, terrorist organisation aimed at establishing and leading a worldwide coalition of likeminded radicals in their quest for an Islamic Caliphate. The elimination of bin Laden is bound to seriously weaken this atomised terrorist outfit, which relies on the ingenuity of its senior operatives to plan and prepare sporadic, but designed to prove spectacular, terrorist attacks in different parts of the globe.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Arabia

146. Polish Development Cooperation: A Turning Point

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The current Polish Development Cooperation system has been under gradual construction since 2004. Fortunately, recent reforms have raised the probability it eventually will evolve as a strong and important tool for Poland's external relations. Moreover, these positive changes are taking place at a very crucial moment in history when unprecedented turmoil in the Arab world has exposed the weaknesses of the European development policy and while Poland is holding the presidency of the EU Council. The convergence of these factors further strengthens the need for a swift finalization of improvements in its development cooperation system if Poland wants to play a more critical role internationally and prove its usefulness in assisting other countries to meet their political and economic aspirations. A development policy that is better-resourced and more balanced (geographically and thematically) would provide Poland with a credible tool of soft power and would strengthen the brand of Polish solidarity.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Arabia

147. Turkey and Democratization in the Arab World: Between an Inspiration and a Model

Author:
Karol Kujawa
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For several months, we have witnessed rapid change in the countries of North Africa. Researchers and politicians have raised questions about the future of Arab countries once the revolution has run its course. Will the new authorities attempt to build a theocratic state or will they follow the example of Turkey and implement democratic reforms? The latter choice is becoming increasingly popular in the Arab world. This article will address the key questions that come up in connection with Turkey and Arab countries, including: the source of Turkey's popularity in the Arab world, what do they have in common, what divides them and, finally, whether Turkey could become a model for Arab countries.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Asia, and Arabia

148. The Egyptian Revolution and its Aftermath

Author:
Mohamed Elagati (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
There is a great similarity between the Egyptian and Tunisian political changes at the beginning of 2011. Not only were there similarities between the two economies—imbalanced development and investment indicators and increasing rates of inflation and unemployment—but also in a symbolic sense in the reaction of citizens to the harsh living conditions. The very same week that a young Tunisian man, Mohamed Bou Azeezi, set himself on fire to object to the municipality's confiscation of the goods he was selling, Egyptian Hamdy Al-Senoosi lighted himself on fire as well, objecting to the confiscation of his “tuctuc”. Many analysts point to differences in the political system: In Egypt, there was allowed some space for political practices, while in Tunisia there existed a very repressive environment to the extent that human rights activists called Zine El Abidine Ben Ali “The Arab Pinochet.” That repression led to the explosion of public outrage in Tunisia. The Tunisian system is a typical authoritarian one while the former Egyptian system was a model of “electoral authoritarianism,” allowing some space of political movement via a sort of “pluralism” (even if it was a facade), a somewhat independent judiciary (even if it was subject to political pressures), something akin to freedom of expression (even if owners of media channels could not cross certain lines) and seats in parliament for the opposition (even if the majority always went to the main party).
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

149. Egypt's Parliamentary Elections: The Political Implications of Electoral Transition

Author:
Daniel Tavana
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This policy brief analyzes Egypt's electoral framework in light of legal and political changes following the popular revolt that overthrew Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. Over the course of a three and a half month period, Egyptians will elect representatives to lower and upper houses of Parliament: the People's Assembly and the Shura Council, respectively. Once both houses convene in March 2012, a 100-member constituent assembly will be selected to draft a new constitution.
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

150. Tunisia's National Constituent Assembly: Current Politics and Next Steps

Author:
Duncan Pickard
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The paper is intended for all policy analysts interested in Tunisia, but it could be especially helpful for members of the NCA and the legal advisory committee, chaired by Yadh Ben Achour, that was recently established to advise the NCA on constitutional law and drafting procedure. The National Constituent Assembly of Tunisia (NCA) will act as the constitutional convention and transitional legislature of Tunisia and was elected on 23 October 2011.1 Decree No. 582, released on 20 May 2011, extends a one-year mandate to the NCA to write a new constitution for the republic. This commitment was also reflected in a September 18 agreement signed by Tunisia's largest political parties. Drawing from recent cases and academic literature, this paper explores key procedural questions that will confront the NCA in its first month in office.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia