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222. PolicyWatch #1319: Aid to the Palestinians: The Role of Oil-Rich Arab States
- Author:
- Simon Henderson, David Makovsky, and Michael Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 17, a donor conference will convene in Paris with the goal of bolstering Palestinian governance in the West Bank -- the first such meeting since the 2006 Stockholm conference. Current Middle East envoy Tony Blair has expressed optimism that the international community will support President Mahmoud Abbas and technocratic prime minister Salam Fayad. A sum of $5.6 billion is needed for the 2008-2010 period, and with the price of oil close to $100 per barrel, that target could be reached easily with contributions from the Gulf. But how much are the Gulf Arab states actually prepared to contribute to an issue that would seem to rank as one of their great political priorities?
- Topic:
- Development and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
223. PolicyWatch #1315: Unwanted Guest: The Gulf Summit and Iran
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 3-4, Arab leaders representing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman met in the Qatari capital, Doha, for their annual Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) summit, which for the first time was attended by an Iranian president. In November, the UAE set a precedent by impounding an Iranian-bound shipment of undisclosed material banned by UN Security Council Resolutions 1737 and 1747 because of its potential use for nuclear weapons or missile programs. All of this came against the background of the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar
224. PolicyWatch #1298: Democracy in Slow Motion: Oman Goes to the Polls
- Author:
- J. Scott Carpenter and Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, around 400,000 Omani men and women are expected to vote in elections for eighty-five seats on the nation\'s Majlis al-Shura, or Consultative Council. Among the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf region, Oman -- a key U.S. ally and exporter of oil and gas, strategically positioned opposite Iran -- is often considered to be the most politically progressive, perhaps even evolving slowly toward a constitutional monarchy. But the country remains dominated by its ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, and for now, the council is limited to advice on public services and infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Politics, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Oman
225. PolicyWatch #1261: Reading Between the Lines of President Bush's July 16 Address
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Bush's July 16 address on the Middle East peace process was a mix of the old and the new, offering neither an unequivocal reaffirmation of past approaches nor a thoroughly novel direction for Arab-Israeli diplomacy in the wake of Hamas's coup in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza
226. PolicyWatch #1247: Special Forum Report: Hamas and the Second Six Day War: Implications, Challenges, and Opportunities
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Hamas's success caps a forty-year evolution of the Palestinian role in the larger Arab-Israeli conflict. In 1967, Israel's military victories rocked the armies and regimes of neighboring Arab states, energizing the previously marginal Palestinian nationalist movement and, especially, Fatah. That term, "Fatah," is a reverse Arabic acronym for "Harakat Tahrir al-Watani al-Filastini," the Palestinian National Liberation Movement.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
227. Lessons and Consequences of the Israel-Hizballah War: An Early Assessment
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 25, 2006, Jeffrey White, David Makovsky, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White is the Berrie Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute and the coauthor, with Michael Eisenstadt, of the Institute Policy Focus Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency. David Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. He, like Jeffrey White, recently returned from a trip to Israel. Dennis Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
228. The Damascus-Hizballah Axis: Bashar al-Asad's Vision of a New Middle East
- Author:
- Seth Wikas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 15, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad gave a significant policy speech to the Syrian Journalists Union in which he expressed his support for Hizballah. More importantly, the address sought to redefine Syria's position in the Arab world. Building on Washington's talk of the birth of a new Middle East, Asad described his own vision for a new Middle East, one with an empowered Arab resistance, a weakened Israel, and a renewed regional unity against Western interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
229. Darfur and the Arab League
- Author:
- Robert O. Collins
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 20, 2006, the Arab League committee on Sudan backed Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir's refusal of a UN peacekeeping force in the war-wracked Darfur region. At the UN Security Council, the only open critic of the proposal to send such a force is Qatar, the only Arab member of the Council. Within the week, President Bush responded by sending Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Jendayi Fraser to Khartoum as his special envoy carrying a personal letter to al-Bashir urging him to permit the presence of a robust UN peacekeeping force in Darfur. This decision by the Arab League has been a discouraging development, given that in June, Arab League secretary-general Amr Musa had urged Sudan to accept UN peacekeepers to replace the fragile 7,000-person African Union (AU) African Mission in the Sudan (AMIS). The Arab League's position represents a stark about-face. In the past, the Arab League had supported Sudan's refusal to agree to a UN peacekeeping force. The change of heart exposed the ambiguities that have long characterized relations between Sudan and the Arab League—particularly Sudan's neighbors Libya, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Libya, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
230. Assessing What Arabs Do, Not What They Say
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 25, 2006, Robert Satloff and David Pollock addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Satloff is the executive director of The Washington Institute and the author most recently of the Institute monograph Assessing What Arabs Do, Not What They Say: A New Approach to Understanding Arab Anti-Americanism. Dr. David Pollock, formerly head of Near East research in the U.S. Information Agency, currently works in the Office of the Undersecretary of Global Affairs at the Department of State. His remarks were off the record. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Satloff's remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Demographics, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Arabia
231. Israel and Hizballah at War: A Status Report
- Author:
- David Schenker, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 19, 2006, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Schenker, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Schenker, a senior fellow in Arab politics at the Institute, served until 2005 as Levant country director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
232. Syria, Hamas, and the Gaza Crisis
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Earlier today, Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashal held a press conference in Damascus broadcast live on al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, and Syrian state television. During the broadcast, Mashal described kidnapped Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit as a “prisoner of war,” said that prisoner exchange was the only solution to the crisis, and appeared to recommend direct negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The press conference was significant, not only for its content, but because it was held in a Damascus hotel: typically in the past, when Syria-based terrorist organizations took responsibility for operations, they did so from Beirut. The high profile Mashal statement from Damascus suggests that the Asad regime has changed its rules of engagement from tacit to explicit support for Hamas. The shift highlights Syria's emboldened foreign policy a year and a half after the assassination in Beirut of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Syria
233. Quelling Iraq's Sectarian Violence: What the United States Can Do
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The ongoing debate over whether or not Iraq is on the verge or in the midst of a civil war is a distraction from the main challenge the United States now faces in Iraq: how to reduce or contain sectarian (and ethnic) violence that could derail the political process and drag Iraq's neighbors into the conflict. That said, the recent increase in sectarian violence following the attack on Samarra's Askariyya Shrine does not necessarily alter the fundamental character of the conflict: attacks on Shiites have long been an important element of Sunni Arab insurgent operations, although Shiites have only recently begun striking back in a sustained way. The violence does, however, have the potential to spiral out of control should another insurgent attack damage an important Shiite shrine or result in very large loss of life.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
234. Responding to Hamas's Triumph
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Patrick Clawson, and Marc Otte
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 3, 2006, Marc Otte, Patrick Clawson, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Otte is the European Union's special representative for the Middle East peace process. Dr. Clawson, The Washington Institute's deputy director for research, is author with Zoe Danon Gedal of the Institute monograph Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
235. Al-Qaeda Attack on Abqaiq: The Vulnerability of Saudi Oil
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The February 24 attack by al-Qaeda on Saudi Arabia's giant oil processing facility at Abqaiq failed. At least two of the attackers were killed, along with two security guards. On February 27, Saudi authorities said they had killed another five terrorists linked to the Abqaiq attack in a clash in Riyadh, and they were interrogating a further suspect. The failure of the attack and the reported success of the subsequent counterterrorist operation give the impression of Saudi efficiency, but it should at least as much serve as a warning. The planned attack, targeting the world's largest oil exporter, should give impetus to President Bush's determination, declared in his January State of the Union address, to wean the United States off foreign oil.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
236. The Israel-Hezbollah Conflict and the Shebaa Farms
- Author:
- Asher Kaufman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- The recent war between Israel and Hezbollah brought to the forefront of regional and international attention the volatile boundaries between Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Indeed, the UN Security Council's August 11th Resolution, which facilitated the end of hostilities, dedicated much of its text to issues related to Lebanese sovereignty and its shared boundaries with Syria and Israel. In particular, the resolution stipulated the need to address the border dispute over the Shebaa farms.
- Topic:
- Armed Struggle and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
237. Proportionality and Sustainable Peace in the Mideast
- Author:
- Mary Ellen O'Connell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- When Israel reacted with military force to the Hamas and Hezbollah raids of June and July, world leaders recognized Israel's right to respond, but some charged it was using disproportionate force. International law supports both points. States may take defensive measures, but every use of force must be proportionate to the harm inflicted. These rules are found in the law regulating resort to force (jus ad bellum) and the law regulating the conduct of force (jus in bello). The most important rule in either category may w ell be the principle of proportionality. Respect for proportionality in the use of force can help foster stable, long-term peace.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
238. Falling In Line on Israel
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The election of a Democratic majority in the House and Senate is unlikely to result in any serious challenge to the Bush administration's support for Israeli attacks against the civilian populations of its Arab neighbors and the Israeli government's ongoing violations of international humanitarian law.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Humanitarian Aid, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
239. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
240. The Key to Arab Reform: Moderate Islamists
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Before any significant political reform can take place in the Arab world, the United States and Europe need to begin engaging moderate Islamists, an action less thorny than it might seem because Islamists have embraced democratic procedures and have shown a strong commitment to the rule of law. For a long time Arab regimes have frightened the United States and Europe into supporting regimes' repressive measures toward Islamist movements by invoking the nightmare of anti-Western fanatics taking power through the ballot box. However, today's moderate Islamists—while illiberal in many important respects—no longer match the nightmare. Excluding them from the political sphere weakens the chances of democratic reform and increases the likelihood that eventually they will resort to violence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Arabia