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81. Shi'i Opposition in Iraq: An Emerging Challenge

Author:
Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Riots last week in Baghdad and Basra raised questions about Shi'i opposition to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). While the Shi'i community has been relatively quiet compared to the Sunni population, elements of the Shi'i have adopted a consistent position against the CPA, occupation forces, and the appointed Governing Council. If they deem it necessary, those opposed to occupation have the means and motives to move to armed resistance, which would pose a substantial threat to the coalition.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

82. Turkish Water to Israel?

Author:
Ayca Ariyoruk
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A Turkish delegation is expected to be in Israel within the next few weeks, perhaps as early as August 20, to sign an agreement committing Israel to buy 50 million cubic meters (mcm) of water annually from Turkey for the next twenty years. Once the operational details -- price, timeline, and transportation methods -- are worked out, Turkish water will flow to Israel via purpose-built supertankers.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

83. European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking on Brussels' Door

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

84. Budgetary Predictions Cast Doubt on Rapid Iraqi Reconstruction

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If Iraq is to rebuild its infrastructure and restore its economy at the pace forecast by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), it will need to bridge a major near-term financing gap by increasing capital inflows from outside the country and simultaneously improving its ability to absorb aid and investment. Oil revenues projected by the CPA budget through 2004 are overly optimistic, and Iraq's capacity to meet the levels of expenditure outlined in the budget are questionable. Without multilateral funding and much improved security and investment environments, Iraqi economic recovery is likely to develop at a slower pace than anticipated.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

85. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran's Nuclear Program -- Countdown?

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and David Albright
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 4, 2003, David Albright and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Albright is president of the Institute for Science and International Security and has also served as an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) weapons inspector in Iraq. Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in military and security affairs. His publications include Iranian Military Power: Capabilities and Intentions (The Washington Institute, 1996) and "Living with a Nuclear Iran?" (Survival, Autumn 1999).
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

86. Iran: Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by 196 prominent clerics and intellectuals. Are these signs that the Islamic Republic is in trouble?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

87. Patterns of Sunni Resistance in Iraq

Author:
Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Almost from the beginning of the occupation of Iraq, coalition forces have faced "resistance" -- armed action against coalition forces, equipment, or facilities. Resistance is to be distinguished from violence by Iraqis against other Iraqis and from "opposition" -- that is, anticoalition statements, demonstrations, or the organization of political activity -- which appears to be more characteristic of the Shi'i.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

88. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

89. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and Iran -- Crosswinds?

Author:
William A. Samii and Nasser Hadian
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 21, 2003, A. William Samii and Nasser Hadian addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Samii is an analyst at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, where he prepares the Iran Report. Dr. Hadian is a professor of political science at Tehran University and a visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute of Columbia University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Colombia, and Arabia

90. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part III: How Might Iran Retaliate?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series. Part I, by Michael Eisenstadt, examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part II, by Michael Knights, examined the operational challenges of preemptive action.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

91. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part II: Operational Challenges

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This PolicyWatch is the second in a three-part series. Part I (PolicyWatch No. 760, "The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action," by Michael Eisenstadt) examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part III, by Jeffrey White, will examine potential Iranian responses to preemption.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

92. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part I: The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This PolicyWatch is the first in a three-part series. Future PolicyWatches by Michael Knights and Jeffrey White will examine the operational challenges of prevention, and potential Iranian responses.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

93. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation: In the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing

Author:
Simon Henderson and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they likely to provide in the aftermath of the bombings?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

94. The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either indigenous political actors or Iranian state-sponsored media networks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

95. Polling in Iran: Surprising Questions

Author:
Nazgol Ashouri
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very interesting polls are in fact conducted in Iran.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

96. Hizballah on the Defensive

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon

97. Hizballah's Message of Hate and Powell's Levant Visit

Author:
Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares to visit Syria and Lebanon on May 3, his agenda will most likely address the war on terrorism. The most active support for terrorism from both Damascus and Beirut is for Hizballah. To understand what the group's aims and ambitions are, few sources are better than al-Manar, Hizballah's Lebanese television station. The channel broadcasts messages calling for death to America and suicide bombings against American forces in Iraq.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut

98. Patterns of Terrorism 2002: Terror, Counterterror, and State Sponsorship

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Today, the State Department releases the 2002 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, its congressionally mandated annual accounting of international terrorism. The report chronicles a year marked by both devastating terrorist attacks and remarkable progress targeting al-Qaeda in the war on terror. However, against the backdrop of the increasingly successful international campaign to prevent such attacks by targeting terrorist groups, what stands out is the lack of a similar effort in 2002 to target state sponsors -- a problem that continues today.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

99. Special Policy Forum Report: Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential, which may amount to 5-6 million barrels per day. Cheap oil will boost the global economy, reduce Arab control of the oil market, and allow the United States to become less dependent on Saudi Arabia and better positioned to demand reforms from Middle Eastern regimes. In addition, postwar Iraq will no longer pose a weapons-of-mass-destruction threat to the region. The end of Saddam's regime will also reduce Russian and French influence in the region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

100. The Emergence of Resistance in Iraq

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Whatever the long-term prospects for a stable and democratic Iraq, the potential exists for the development of resistance to that goal. This potential is rooted in both historical factors (e.g., Iraq's political culture; Iraqi distrust of the United States; enduring images of colonialism) and immediate circumstances (e.g., the collapse of Saddam Husayn's regime and the attendant destruction of governing systems and infrastructure; the legacy of regime crimes). Indeed, the latter circumstances have created precursors for resistance to coalition forces, the transitional government, and the eventual Iraqi government.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia