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82. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part II: Operational Challenges
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This PolicyWatch is the second in a three-part series. Part I (PolicyWatch No. 760, "The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action," by Michael Eisenstadt) examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part III, by Jeffrey White, will examine potential Iranian responses to preemption.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
83. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part I: The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This PolicyWatch is the first in a three-part series. Future PolicyWatches by Michael Knights and Jeffrey White will examine the operational challenges of prevention, and potential Iranian responses.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
84. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation: In the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they likely to provide in the aftermath of the bombings?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
85. The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either indigenous political actors or Iranian state-sponsored media networks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
86. Polling in Iran: Surprising Questions
- Author:
- Nazgol Ashouri
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very interesting polls are in fact conducted in Iran.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
87. Hizballah on the Defensive
- Author:
- Yoram Yoffe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon
88. Hizballah's Message of Hate and Powell's Levant Visit
- Author:
- Avi Jorisch
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares to visit Syria and Lebanon on May 3, his agenda will most likely address the war on terrorism. The most active support for terrorism from both Damascus and Beirut is for Hizballah. To understand what the group's aims and ambitions are, few sources are better than al-Manar, Hizballah's Lebanese television station. The channel broadcasts messages calling for death to America and suicide bombings against American forces in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut
89. Patterns of Terrorism 2002: Terror, Counterterror, and State Sponsorship
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Today, the State Department releases the 2002 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, its congressionally mandated annual accounting of international terrorism. The report chronicles a year marked by both devastating terrorist attacks and remarkable progress targeting al-Qaeda in the war on terror. However, against the backdrop of the increasingly successful international campaign to prevent such attacks by targeting terrorist groups, what stands out is the lack of a similar effort in 2002 to target state sponsors -- a problem that continues today.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
90. Special Policy Forum Report: Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential, which may amount to 5-6 million barrels per day. Cheap oil will boost the global economy, reduce Arab control of the oil market, and allow the United States to become less dependent on Saudi Arabia and better positioned to demand reforms from Middle Eastern regimes. In addition, postwar Iraq will no longer pose a weapons-of-mass-destruction threat to the region. The end of Saddam's regime will also reduce Russian and French influence in the region.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
91. The Emergence of Resistance in Iraq
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Whatever the long-term prospects for a stable and democratic Iraq, the potential exists for the development of resistance to that goal. This potential is rooted in both historical factors (e.g., Iraq's political culture; Iraqi distrust of the United States; enduring images of colonialism) and immediate circumstances (e.g., the collapse of Saddam Husayn's regime and the attendant destruction of governing systems and infrastructure; the legacy of regime crimes). Indeed, the latter circumstances have created precursors for resistance to coalition forces, the transitional government, and the eventual Iraqi government.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
92. U.S. Policy and Iraqi Oil: The Challenges Ahead
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- the oil producers' cartel of which Iraq is a founding member -- meets in Vienna to discuss production cuts intended to maintain the current, relatively high price of oil. The United States is not expected to send a representative for Iraq, although one or more among the plethora of political groups in the liberated country may send a would-be representative, unlikely to be seated. While ignoring the meeting, Washington still needs to make clear how it will reconstruct the Iraqi oil industry and utilize the nation's huge oil reserves, second in size only to those of Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Vienna
93. Winning the Peace in the Middle East: A Bipartisan Blueprint for Postwar U.S. Policy
- Author:
- William Perry, Newt Gingrich, R. James Woolsey, Lawrence Eagleburger, Alexander Haig, Robert Kerrey, and Fred Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush declared that Iraq would be disarmed -- peacefully if possible, through force if necessary. While resort to arms was surely not the preferred option, Saddam Husayn's determination to preserve his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) ensured that the United States and its allies would be left with no choice but to act militarily. The path to war has not been precipitous. If the United States is now to avoid the age-old fear of winning the war but losing the peace, the administration's postwar priorities must reflect an understanding of the challenges it faces and the choices it must make.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
94. The Future Shape of Military Operations in Support of Postwar Stabilization in Iraq
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although military operations have passed the "tipping point" in Iraq, U.S. Central Command spokesmen continue to stress that their primary focus remains the completion of high-intensity operations against remaining pockets of resistance. Moreover, in contrast to previous statements that advocated allowing looting to burn itself out, recent statements suggest that the coalition will quickly reconstitute the Iraqi police force, actively preventing looting and imposing curfews on its own in the meantime. These are positive steps because accomplishing the mission -- that is, neutralizing or apprehending leadership elements, uncovering weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and facilitating the humanitarian and economic recovery of Iraq -- depends on closer engagement with the civilian population and robust policing activity. The coalition cannot afford to choose between fighting the high-intensity war or engaging in low-intensity civil affairs; both endeavors must be undertaken simultaneously, which will be a strain on both the limited numbers of coalition forces and relations with Iraqi civilians.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
95. Foreign Irregulars in Iraq: The Next Jihad?
- Author:
- Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In light of the recent dramatic events in Baghdad, U.S. policymakers are eyeing the next phase of the war. U.S. forces will almost certainly encounter increased guerrilla fighting. Saddam Husayn's vice president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, recently stated that more than 6,000 Arab volunteer fighters are now in Iraq. With increasing numbers of such volunteers vowing to fight, could Iraq become the epicenter for the next global jihad?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia
96. Special Policy Forum Report: Combating the Ideology of Radical Islam
- Author:
- Graham E. Fuller and Daniel Pipes
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 3, 2003, Daniel Pipes and Graham Fuller addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and an adjunct scholar of the Institute. His most recent book is Militant Islam Reaches America (W.W. Norton, 2002). Mr. Fuller is former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council at the Central Intelligence Agency and senior political scientist at RAND. His latest book is The Future of Political Islam (Palgrave, 2003). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- America, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
97. Special Policy Forum Report: A Terrorist Front in Iraq?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt, Avi Jorisch, and Roger Cressey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 4, 2003, Matthew Levitt, Roger Cressey, and Avi Jorisch addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Levitt is the Institute's senior fellow in terrorism studies and author of its 2002 monograph Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11. Mr. Cressey is president of Good Harbor Consulting and former director of transnational threats at the National Security Council. Mr. Jorisch is a Soref fellow at the Institute, where he is writing a monograph on Hizballah and its television station, al-Manar. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
98. The End of Saddam's Regime
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "Bloody thou art, bloody will be thy end" -- like Shakespeare's quintessential villain Richard III, Saddam Husayn is being toppled by a combination of forces he called into existence through his own evil actions. Unlike Richard, Saddam's final act will lack heroic qualities. Clearly, the regime's disintegration is accelerating; all that is left is for the final act to be played out.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
99. Special Policy Forum Report: A View from Tehran: War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Midle East
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions has led to a conservative backlash. A coalition of hardliners has been successfully implementing a strategy for retaining power, namely, fostering popular apathy by controlling public discourse, imprisoning reformers, and negating the deliberations of elected institutions. This strategy reached its apex during local and council elections in February in which only 30 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arabia
100. Special Policy Forum Report: Arabs View the War -- Images, Attitudes, and Opinions
- Author:
- Hafez al-Mirazi, Jonathan Schanzer, and Mouafac Harb
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- War remains a horrifying event and al-Jazeera will cover it realistically. Images carried by the network are graphic, but do not discriminate in showing American and Iraqi casualties. Similarly, al-Jazeera has covered both the unprecedented airpower brought to bear by the allied forces and the Iraqi government's own version of "shock and awe" in airing videotapes of American prisoners of war; failure to do so would challenge the station's credibility.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arabia