Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Africa / Publication Year: within 3 Years

1. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

2. SVAC Explainer: Wartime Sexual Violence in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2020–2021

Author:: Ketaki Zodgekar
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Tigray Region is the northernmost part of Ethiopia, bordering Sudan to the west and Eritrea to the north. Struggles over national political power have been occurring in Ethiopia since 1960, when a group of government and military leaders attempted a coup against Emperor Haile Selassie. Though initially successful, this political takeover failed after a month, and the emperor remained in power until 1974, when, in the Ethiopian Revolution, he was usurped by the Derg, a military junta. After the revolution, Ethiopia experienced a devastating civil war between the Derg and anti-government rebels, which concluded in 1991 when a coalition of rebel groups, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrew the junta, establishing a federal democracy. The EPRDF had four members: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which always led the coalition, along with the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM). From 1991 onwards, the EPRDF ruled Ethiopia for 17 years, during which time the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had leadership over policy design. After widespread protests in 2018 which resulted in the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and a shifting of the EPRDF coalition in 2019, the TPLF lost their control over national politics, though they did remain in power in the Tigray Region. Ethiopia's new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, who first gained political power by coming up through EPRDF ranks, formed a new political party, the Prosperity Party, that took government from 2019 onwards.
Topic:: War, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

3. What shall we do with the suspected pirates? Why piracy prosecution doesn't always work

Author:: Jessica Larsen
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In African waters, incidents of piracy still far outweigh apprehensions, leaving few suspects to prosecute. Those who are prosecuted may face either impunity or legal uncertainty, because the illegal act of piracy is difficult to prove in some cases. There are steps that the states involved in counter-piracy should take to address these challenges. Piracy has been a constant issue of concern since the early 2000s in the waters off East and West Africa, albeit with numbers of incidents fluctuating with seasons and geography. The international community has in both theatres developed a practice, where international navies patrol the waters and hand over suspects for prosecution in regional states. But bringing piracy suspects to justice faces many challenges. This policy brief points to the main issues and possible solutions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Water, Governance, Piracy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Africa

4. Climate change, mobility and human trafficking in Ethiopia

Author:: Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Throughout history, demographic, economic, political, religious, and environmental developments have resulted in Ethiopian mobility, mainly within the country or neighbouring region, but also further afield. Although Ethiopia’s current migration rate is only about half of the sub-Saharan average of 2%, the combined effects of poverty, population growth, conflict, and climate change have led to a recent growth in international migration. Women make up half of these flows. Proximity to the Middle East has facilitated women’s migration for domestic work while simultaneously raised concern over human trafficking violations. International Human Rights and anti-trafficking organisations predict that the negative effects of climate change will increase the vulnerability to trafficking in persons, forced labour, sexual exploitation, and debt bondage. This policy brief draws on research carried out under the auspices of the collaborative ‘Governing Climate Migration’ (GCM) research programme to further explore how climate change, migration and human trafficking may interlink. It questions routine applications of the human trafficking label to irregular Ethiopian migrant domestic workers and suggests replacing it with a migration-trafficking continuum approach that takes life before, during and after migration into account.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Borders, Risk, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

5. How to encourage private sector climate initiatives in Kenya

Author:: Judith Mulwa and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a particularly pertinent issue in Kenya because the country’s economy is highly dependent on its natural resource base (such as agriculture and fisheries), which are sensitive to temperature and rainfall variabilities. As a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kenya must work to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This requires significant financial resources. Per the UNFCCC framework, some national climate actions are not expected to receive financing from international financial sources. Therefore, the country must look for innovative ways of domestically sourcing finances for low-carbon development and climate resilience programmes. Kenya has, in this regard, set up and implemented a national climate fund for financing adaptation and mitigation projects, ideally from various sources, including the private sector. This policy brief explores the legal, price-based, property-based, and information-based incentives for private sector investment and engagement in climate adaptation and mitigation in Kenya. The analysis is based on desk research and 51 stakeholder interviews from identified private sector institutions and industries in Kenya.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

6. Power and path dependencies may weaken EU counter-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:: Jessica Larsen and Stephanie Schandorf
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In 2013, West African coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea region (extending from Senegal in the north to Angola in the south) signed the Yaoundé Code of Conduct to combat maritime crime. The code promoted a trend of increasing donor activity intended to sustain the resulting Yaoundé Architecture (which includes the code, a declaration and a memorandum of understanding between regional organisations), through capacity-building and counter-piracy operations (see Box 1). A decade later, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea grew increasingly urgent as the world’s hotspot of attacks, and questions remain about whether the Yaoundé Architecture (YA) is fit for purpose.
Topic:: Crime, Law Enforcement, Piracy, European Union, and Path Dependency
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Gulf of Guinea

7. Diplomacy of Neglect: Assessing the European Union’s engagement in the Sudanese Crisis

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The European Union aims to strengthen its involvement in the Sudanese crisis. This was recently evident when Brussels welcomed a delegation of Sudanese political leaders on July 27, 2023. This effort aims to establish an active European role in the endeavors to settle the Sudanese crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, European Union, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sudan

8. Cautious Pragmatism: What is thе potential outcome of Washington's approach to thе Nigеr crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On August 8, 2023, US Sеcrеtary of Statе Antony Blinkеn announcеd that diplomacy is thе prеfеrrеd way of rеsolving thе crisis causеd by thе coup in Nigеr. Following thе coup on July 26, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan strongly condemned any effort to detain or subvert thе functioning of Nigеr's dеmocratically еlеctеd govеrnmеnt, led by President Mohamеd Bazoum. Thеsе statements reflect thе ambiguity of Washington's stance regarding thе crisis in Nigеr.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Counter-terrorism, Crisis Management, Coup, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Niger, and United States of America

9. A Surprising Shift: Is Somalia choosing Moscow over Washington?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Somali Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Jama made a surprise visit to Moscow on May 26, 2023, to meet with several Russian officials, including his counterpart Sergey Lavrov. His visit raised several questions regarding motives and implications, particularly in light of the Russian top diplomat’s statements about Russia’s readiness to supply Mogadishu with the necessary military equipment for its ongoing war against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Engagement, Al-Shabaab, and Military Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Somalia, and United States of America

10. Preliminary Talks: Can the talks in Zanzibar lead to an agreement between Ethiopia and the Oromo Liberation Army?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Zanzibar, and Ethiopia

11. Macron’s Tour: A new French strategy for Africa

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: French President Macron ended a four-nation tour of Africa earlier in March, which took him to Gabon, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Hopeful of restoring France’s influence in the continent, Macron met with African presidents amid popular protests – signs of rising anti-French sentiment in parts of Francophone Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, France, and Democratic Republic of Congo

12. European Mercenaries: Will Congo use Wagner in its conflict with Rwanda?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Tensions broke out between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda in January 2023 after an exchange of accusations of non-compliance with their peace agreement signed in the Angolan capital Luanda in November 2022. The development came after Kinshasa announced that it uses private military firms to counter growing security threats. Kigali regarded this move as a declaration of war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Conflict, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Rwanda

13. Promoting diaspora investment in fragile settings: The case of Somalia

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief analyses the extent to which diaspora investment can support economic development and livelihoods, with a particular focus on fragile settings. Using the case study of Somalia, the brief explores some of the main advantages and risks associated with this tool. On the one hand, diaspora investment can channel finance into productive activities in the diaspora’s country of origin, supporting the creation of revenue streams, while also generating returns for diaspora investors. On the other hand, particularly in fragile settings, these investments can also undermine social cohesion and even increase the likelihood of violent conflict, especially if they are channelled along identity lines. On the basis of this analysis, the brief offers the following recommendations to donor governments interested in promoting diaspora investment in Somalia and beyond: (i) to ensure effectiveness, donors should gather comprehensive, in-depth data on the needs and preferences of both potential investors in the diaspora and investees in the country of origin; (ii) to avoid exacerbating tensions and conflict, donors should be as inclusive and transparent as possible in their engagement with stakeholders, most notably in the selection of beneficiaries; (iii) any efforts to promote diaspora investment in fragile settings should be grounded in a thorough understanding of the specific context in which they are implemented, in order to understand both the economic and political implications of such investment.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Diaspora, Investment, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

14. Sahel: Why stabilization efforts should address internal displacement

Author:: Ekaterina Golovko
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The conflict situation in the Sahel has created one of the fastest growing displacement crises in the world with more than 2.5 million people displaced over the past decade. International donors have largely dealt with the crises by supporting humanitarian efforts to provide emergency aid to IDPs. This policy brief argues that this response is important but ultimately inadequate; donors should start viewing IDPs as a key element to enable (regional) stability. Moving IDPs from the exclusive realm of humanitarians to stabilization, brings to the fore a policy tension that carries the promise a policy reconciliation. National governments in the Sahel push for the return of IDPs to their regions of origin in an effort to secure, re-populate and ‘stabilize’ abandoned territories (a effort that remains complex in a dire security context). But those international donors who do ‘stabilization’ leave IDPs completely off the radar and miss their constructive potential. This brief calls for international partners to pay greater attention to the crisis of internal displacement in the Sahel. Such policies have to make IDPs themselves one of the actors that can help bring ‘stability’ to conflict affected settings and, in that way, also speak to their (humanitarian) needs by providing long-term prospects of rebuilding their lives and livelihoods.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Displacement, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

15. China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching far beyond natural resources

Author:: Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Naomi Aladekoba
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This work empirically examines China’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment, trade, cultural, and security landscape over the past two decades. It highlights China’s increasing appetite for Sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and growing young labor force—identifying the region’s consumer market as an important destination for Chinese goods and services over the next few decades. The analysis identifies more than 600 Chinese investments and construction contracts in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), valued at over $303 billion, signed between 2006 and 2020. Four sectors attract 87 percent of China’s investment and construction in the region: energy at 34 percent; transport, 29 precent; metals, 13 percent; and real estate, 11 percent. This is very similar to the Middle East and North Africa Region, where the energy sector attracts close to 50 percent of China’s investment, followed by transport, 19 percent; real estate, 15 percent; and metals, 6 percent. In terms of trade, this work shows that between 2001 and 2020, China’s merchandise trade with the region increased by a whopping 1,864 percent—surpassing SSA’s trade with both the United States and the European Union. In other words, from 2001 to 2020, China’s share in total merchandise trade in SSA rose from 4 percent to 25.6 percent, while during the same period, the shares of the United States and the EU in SSA’s total trade declined by 10 percentage points and 8 percentage points, respectively. The report also takes a look at China’s arms trade with the region. Twenty-two percent of SSA’s arms imports are sourced from China, making China the region’s second-largest supplier of arms and military equipment, with Russia in the lead (24 percent). Finally, the report highlights the fact that the size of Chinese migrants in Africa is estimated at one to two million, with around one million permanently residing in the region. The largest numbers are in Ghana, South Africa, Madagascar, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.This work is the first in a series of empirical analyses that will be conducted on China’s presence in developing economies and low-income countries.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Economy, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

16. Potential and Pitfalls for African Industrialization in Chinese-built Standard Gauge Railways

Author:: Yunnan Chen
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Railway development has been a key feature of transport infrastructure investments in several African economies, with several new standard gauge railways (SGR) built in the last ten years in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Kenya. These planned projects have also entailed substantial Chinese involvement through construction contractors, in financing, and in the operations and management, becoming part of the wider Chinese discourse of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). They also have significant potential in supporting the industrialization plans of African states, and in some cases, have been explicitly linked to plans for a green transformation. This brief draws from case studies across Africa with a focus on Ethiopia, to highlight the significant potential of railway investments as a low-cost, low-carbon transport for green industrialization, but also its pitfalls and challenges as an infrastructure for governance, and local technology transfer.
Topic:: Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Industrialization, and Railways
Political Geography:: China and Africa

17. Electric Vehicles and the Changing Automotive GVC: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries?

Author:: Tobias Wuttke
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Only two African countries have successfully integrated with the automotive GVC to date: South Africa and Morocco. Their experiences, compared to other even more successful developing and emerging economies with automotive industries, highlight both the opportunities as well as the limitations of automotive GVC participation as an economic development engine. Scale in vehicle production, facilitated by government industrial policy, is the key prerequisite for successful participation with localisation benefits. These fundamentals do not change with the shift to electric vehicles. Governments in Africa and elsewhere need to attract FDI in electric vehicle production and from there can support the development of a local component and materials value chain. Once these basics are covered, governments and local firms can aim for making use of the technological window of opportunity by investing in EV-related technology, mainly battery technology, to potentially capture more value from automotive GVC participation than has traditionally been possible in the ICE vehicle value chain.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Value Chains, Automotive Industry, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: Africa

18. Current Capabilities and Future Potential of African Textile and Apparel Industries

Author:: Lindsay Whitfield and Chema Triki
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: The textile and apparel industry is a globalised industry characterised by a high degree of dependency and fragmentation in global supply chains. From the mid-20th century, cotton textile and apparel manufacturing production relocated from industrialised to developing countries, particularly in Asia, and was quickly followed by the emergence of the petrochemical industry and synthetic fibre production in East Asian countries, while South Asia continued to focus on cotton and natural fibres. China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam are currently the central players in global apparel supply chains, with China and increasingly Vietnam having vertically integrated industries with access to a diverse range of fabrics and thus a large product portfolio. The largest apparel consumer markets are concentrated in Europe, North America, and other wealthy countries such as Japan, as they have higher purchasing power and economically larger markets. Large emerging economies such as China and India largely supply their domestic markets but have not yet become major destination consumption markets for other developing economies. Changes in international trade over the past 30 years fostered the textile and apparel global value chain dynamic. These changes were marked by opening trade borders, lowering tariffs, tax breaks or subsidies offered by various governments, and free trade agreements. Low labour costs and lower production costs have shaped the decisions of global actors to relocate their operations from one country to another. Current global trends are set to transform the global value chains of textiles and apparel again. These trends include increasing production costs in China, the drive to shorten supply chains post-Covid pandemic through nearshoring and seeking countries with yarn-to-garment (or vertical) production capabilities, and a sustainability shift. These trends are leading global apparel buyers to diversify their sourcing away from China and Asia more generally and to consider new supply bases. These structural trends in the industry, together with the AfCFTA, represent a window of opportunity for African countries. African industry actors and their governments should build new textile and apparel industries that seek to participate in global and regional markets and engage with global technologies and international partnerships. Attracting foreign firms with the necessary technical, organisational, and managerial capabilities is essential. The AfCFTA represents a powerful tool to respond to the verticality need of the industry, considering the current production levels of raw materials, but also an opportunity to increase the number of African countries with industrial capabilities in textile and apparel. The ongoing negotiations on rules of origin will significantly impact the continent's potential to create synergetic regional value chains.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Business, Supply Chains, and Textile Industry
Political Geography:: Africa

19. Harnessing Public Employment Programmes' Potential: An Intervention Brief Focusing on Youth Inclusion in South Africa's Community Work Programme

Author:: M. Langa
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Youth continue to be worst affected by social and economic issues such as unemployment, substance abuse and violence (ILO, 2021; United Nations, 2011). South African youth are no exception to this claim, experiencing the world’s highest rate of unemployment as well as some of the highest rates of homicide and gender-based violence (Clifford, 2020; Rebello, 2021). These challenges have gained increased recognition from stakeholders, such as the South African government, with the Presidential Youth Employment Initiative representing one of many recent initiatives. This intervention brief aims to contribute to conversations around how to better address the challenges faced by South African youth. It builds on research conducted by the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR), which focused on how public employment programmes, specifically the Community Work Programme (CWP), may contribute to youth social and economic inclusion, which may further assist in reducing the vulnerability of South African youth. This brief highlights how some youth have negative perceptions of the CWP, which primarily stem from the nature of the activities carried out by the CWP and a lack of accurate knowledge about the programme. Examples from four CWP sites highlight how youthoriented activities may attract greater interest in the programme among youth. It also highlights how youth have benefitted and can continue to benefit from the programme.
Topic:: Government, Employment, Youth, Unemployment, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

20. Proposals for Reducing the Size and Cost of Running Government

Author:: Kojo Asante and David Asante Darko
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: Every other sector of the economy has had to incur substantive inconvenience or financial loss in efforts to return the sovereign debts to sustainable levels. Every other sector of the economy, except government itself. Against this backdrop, this paper reiterates some of the measures that have been proposed to reduce government spending and examines them in more detail. We delve into how the ministerial team might be reduced in size and thereby optimized to cut down government expenditure.
Topic:: Government, Budget, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

21. Reflections on Nigeria’s Elections: Threats, potential outcomes and relevance to democracy in West Africa

Author:: Paul Osei-Kuffour
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The upcoming presidential election in Nigeria has generated huge interest and enthusiasm within the sub-region. The election has been described as the most competitive since returning to multi-party democracy in 1999. This paper reflects on the prevailing context barely one month into the election. It discusses the relevance of the election to the sub-region, major reforms around the election and why it is receiving enormous attention in Nigeria and the whole of West Africa. It concludes with an analysis of the factors shaping the potential outcome of the election.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

22. The Democratic Quality of Primaries in Ghana: A Look at the 2020 NPP Internal Party Elections

Author:: Gildfred Boateng Asiamah, Francisca Sarpong Owusu, and Alfred Torsu
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: In Ghana, political party primaries are not only a democratic imperative but also a constitutional requirement. However, no laws regulate the conduct of political party primaries in Ghana. Even the involvement of the national election management body, the Electoral Commission (EC), is limited to the counting and declaration of votes. This paper shares insights on the extent to which the parliamentary primaries conform to fundamental principles of democratic elections and identifies the mechanisms that party executives and leadership use to circumvent the democratic processes.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

23. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses this predatory political economy in South Sudan, and charts a shift from the use of wages to reward loyal appointees to a more obscure system based on the dispensations of favours.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Conflict, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

24. Climate Adaptation in Africa: Locally Led and Nature Based Solutions

Author:: Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:: Climate change continues to cause damage in Africa. It triggers food insecurity, poverty and displacement. The impacts of climate change are being exacerbated by rapid urbanization, geopolitical tensions, headwinds caused by the invasion of Ukraine and its impacts on agricultural exports and fertilizers. Equally important, inflationary pressures, risks of global and regional economic recession, and unsustainable debt levels for many countries are amplifying the impacts of climate shocks on African economies and communities. Our recent analysis by the Global Center for Adaptation (GCA)1 shows that Africa is ground zero for the climate emergency. The climate is changing, and Africa needs to adapt. It must adapt to rising temperatures, more extreme storms, and floods, rising sea levels, more intense heatwaves, and longer and more severe droughts. However, an enormous funding gap on adaptation is holding Africa back. This policy brief analyses climate adaptation financial flows to Africa and argues that the limited resources available to Africa for adaptation need to be used in the most efficient and productive manner to dampen the combined impacts of climate shocks and economic downturns. Nature-based solutions (NbS) and Locally Led Adaptation programs (LLA) are critical in this respect. Moreover, multilateralism and collaboration between governments, international organizations, international financial institutions, civil society, and the private sector are critical to ensure more support for adaptation in Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Food Security, Nature, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Africa

25. Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE) in West Africa: Lessons from Ghana

Author:: Titilope F. Ajayi
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This briefing note draws on discussions and recommendations from a policy dialogue co-organized in Accra by the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) and the African Peacebuilding Network (APN) on June 25 and 26, 2023. In the past decade, West Africa’s vulnerability to violent extremism and terrorism has intensified as attacks have spread across the region, exacerbating existing multi-layered crises, and raising critical questions about the effectiveness of existing responses. Recent extremist incursions into Coastal West Africa are of special concern. As the only coastal state that has not experienced extremist or terrorist violence, Ghana offers an interesting case study into strategies and frameworks for preventing and countering violent extremism (PCVE) in Africa.
Topic:: Security, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Ghana

26. Working Toward Peaceful Relations between Oromia and Somali Regional States, Ethiopia: Policy Options

Author:: Ketema Debela
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: In recent years, Ethiopia has increasingly faced violent conflicts which are intergovernmental, interparty, and interethnic in nature. In this regard, the conflict between Oromia and Somali regional states, which used to be local and confined to border areas prior to 2017, expanded its scale from local to the regional level, from clan to ethnic level. By drawing on research about intergovernmental conflict resolution and peacebuilding between Oromia and the Somali Regional State, this policy brief identifies the root causes of conflict along the borderlands between Oromo and Somali, examines the effectiveness of the measures taken to address the conflict, and recommends key areas for policy interventions to resolve the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Oromia, and Somali Regional State

27. A post-Western global order in the making? Foreign policy goals of India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa

Author:: Sinikukka Saari, Toni Alaranta, Bart Gaens, Katariina Mustasilta, and Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are striving for a more multipolar, post-Western world order in which they would not be seen merely as auxiliary powers to the bigger players, but as independent great powers. For them, a key foreign policy goal is to transform global governance institutions. They all call for a permanent seat for their country on the UN Security Council. To achieve that, the states need backing from more than the Western states – and this logically strengthens the multi-aligned logic of their foreign policies. India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa see Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the Western countermeasures from their own perspective. They describe Russia’s invasion as a violation of international law, but see the war primarily as a Western concern, not theirs. Although these states are critical towards the West, they are not anti-Western and they all value multilateral institutions; their foreign policy goals and features offer opportunities for the EU to engage with them, but that needs to happen on a more equal footing than what has traditionally been the case.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, UN Security Council, Multipolarity, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, India, Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

28. Why Senegal Should Minimize Petroleum Operations Emissions

Author:: Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, and William Davis
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Slowing climate change is not the only reason Senegal should reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Minimizing emissions, particularly of methane, from the country’s oil and gas operations will increase government revenues, support its ambitions to use gas to increase domestic energy access, and reduce harms to the health and environment of local communities. Senegal’s government is starting to act on minimizing emissions from oil and gas production, but officials should consider strengthening the regulatory framework to support emissions minimization. Greater transparency and accountability, including effective campaigning by civil society actors, is critical to ensure effective action by companies, investors and the government. Measures to reduce oil and gas methane emissions have been well-known and cost-effective for many years, but progress in most countries has been slow. Senegal’s government should at a minimum ensure that the existing regulatory framework is publicly accessible, while Senegal EITI should advocate for disclosure of actual emissions when oil and gas production starts.
Topic:: Gas, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

29. New Frontiers: Estonia’s Foreign Policy in Africa

Author:: Kristin Adeoti
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Estonia’s renewed foreign policy engagement in Africa holds a historical foundation proving that the country’s approach to diplomacy is a gradual development and a work in progress. In recent years, Estonia has taken several strategic steps to enhance its ties with African nations across the realms of diplomacy, security, economic relations, business partnerships, development cooperation, and humanitarian aid – and has already had some success stories. This drive reflects both an ambition and a commitment to building stronger bonds between Estonia and Africa. To strengthen ties with African states, Estonia must commit to continuous engagement on the levels of government, businesses, and people-to-people cooperation, while acknowledging the current challenges and limitations. Such a comprehensive approach – albeit a demanding endeavour involving multiple stakeholders – would foster mutual trust, forming the basis for genuine partnerships and sustainable progress. Today, it is of essence to recognise the immense potential that this relationship promises. Demographic growth, rapid economic development, and expanding IT markets on the continent boost its global influence. As Africa gains more weight in international affairs, Estonia can engage in a mutually beneficial exchange. Africa’s prospective influence and Estonia’s existing expertise lay the foundation for a partnership that will fuel innovation and drive progress.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Estonia

30. The “Odious” Legacy of Chinese Development Assistance in Africa: The Case of Angola

Author:: Rafael Marques de Morais and Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Within days of taking office, China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, was on a plane to his country’s main African client: Angola. Landing in Luanda on January 12, Qin Gang was ostensibly bringing a gift—a $250 million loan to help Angola expand high-speed broadband. Some gifts, however, are not what they seem, and some of the recent financial gifts from Chinese sources have been toxic. Soon after Qin visited Angola, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to three African countries but skipped Angola, possibly because of its checkered history with Chinese development assistance. The case of Angola raises questions about the extent and nature of Chinese loans and infrastructure aid to a growing number of African nations, as well as the consequences of such loans on those countries’ relations with the US.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Infrastructure, Trade, Development Assistance, and Loans
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Angola, and United States of America

31. America’s Best Choice in Sudan Is the Least Bad Option

Author:: Joshua Meservey
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Long-simmering tensions between Sudan’s two most powerful generals broke into open warfare on April 15. A series of ceasefires have failed, and fighting continues in the capital city, Khartoum, and in other areas throughout the country. Street protests in April 2019 prompted Sudan’s security services to oust the former dictator, Omar al-Bashir, and forced them to include civilians in the subsequent transitional government. Ever since, the United States has tried to help those civilians consolidate power.1 In October 2021, however, the two most senior generals in the transitional government—Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (usually known as “Hemeti”), leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)—forced the civilians out. Still, the United States supported negotiations between the junta and elements of the civilian protest movement until both generals’ desire for supreme power forced the confrontation that now threatens to dismember the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Leadership, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and United States of America

32. Eritrea’s Growing Ties with China and Russia Highlight America’s Inadequate Approach in East Africa

Author:: Joshua Meservey
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: China and Russia have recently increased their engagement with Eritrea, a small but strategically located country in East Africa. Meanwhile, American influence in the region is amid a yearslong slide. Despite the obvious risks, the United States has failed to muster a committed response and has even taken some counterproductive measures that demonstrate a lack of strategic thinking. If these trends continue, a vital region may fall under the conclusive influence of Washington’s primary geopolitical competitors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Eritrea, and United States of America

33. Tricks of the trade: Strengthening EU-African cooperation on trade in services

Author:: Iza Lejarraga
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Services are increasingly important for international trade, accounting for about half of global trade flows. Trade in services is growing more rapidly than trade in goods. Trade in services is critical for improving the competitiveness of African economies, increasing their participation in regional and global value chains, and promoting inclusive growth. Improved trade in services with African countries could help the EU diversify its supply chains, strengthening resilience and reducing dependencies on China and other Asian countries. The cooperation on domestic regulatory frameworks required for trade in services can promote a shared understanding of regulatory goals and standards between the EU and Africa across many sectors. None of the trade agreements between the EU and African countries currently covers services, and only one African country is part of the WTO Joint Initiative on Domestic Services Regulation. There is therefore no dedicated platform for cooperation on services regulations. The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement provides an unprecedented opportunity for African countries to improve domestic services regulations and could be a new basis for cooperation with the EU.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade Liberalization, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Africa

34. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East

Author:: Munsu Kang
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

35. Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena": The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin and Sarah Cahn
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In April, Islamic State fighters in Mali seized villages surrounding the city of Menaka, marking the group’s first territorial conquest since losing its final Syrian foothold in 2019. The human cost of these advances has been steep. By May, at least 150,000 individuals had reportedly been displaced, and civilians have been subjected to targeted killings, kidnappings, and looting. The offensive occurred amid a string of regional of security setbacks: namely, France’s August 2022 military withdrawal (which followed the Malian junta’s expressed preference for Russia’s Wagner Group), the April 2023 dissolution of the UN mission in Mali, and the junta’s decision earlier this month to form a tripartite alliance with Burkina Faso and Niger, thereby undermining the French-led G5 Sahel framework designed to thwart jihadist actors in the region. In this amply illustrated Policy Note, Aaron Zelin and Sarah Cahn explain that while the United States may have limited room for maneuver in Mali today, it can promote regional stability and U.S. national interests by pursuing further sanctions against local Islamic State officials and exploring constructive arrangements with nearby African states.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, and Mali

36. Evaluating The Social and Economic Consequences of Global Warming On African Women

Author:: Eyesiere-Hope Essien
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: By Eyesiere-Hope Essien of the Climate Change Working Group Global warming is significantly impacting developing countries and the effects are far-reaching which is having a devastating impact on African women and their communities, leading to adverse social and economic consequences. Climate change has resulted in an increase in temperature, more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and a decrease in water availability. As a result, African women are facing a growing number of challenges related to food insecurity, water scarcity, and healthcare access. They are at greater risk of poverty, displacement, and exploitation. These issues can be further exacerbated by a lack of access to education and employment opportunities. It is essential to understand the nature of these impacts and to take action to mitigate them and ensure African women have the resources and skills to adapt to the changing environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Health, Water, Women, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Africa

37. Climate Change in Africa: What we know, what we don't, and where we should go from here

Author:: Eyesiere-Hope Essien and Lisa Jené
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: Climate change is taking a toll across the African continent. While the world is increasingly recognizing the various ways in which climate change is negatively impacting African communities—from decreased agricultural productivity to increased incidence of natural disasters and even to heightened conflict—there remains much we as a global community do not fully understand.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Africa

38. Maximising the impact of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP)

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This briefing assesses South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). It acknowledges programme achievements while addressing challenges, including delays to the procurement process and financial issues facing REIPPPP projects. It underscores the necessity for electricity industry reform and more cohesive energy policies. It proposes changes to how investment decisions are made, and collaboration occurs alongside the REIPPPP process to promote private sector investment, develop localisation within the REIPPPP and reduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Lastly, it provides a thorough analysis to inform recommendations that will maximise REIPPPP’s role in realising South Africa’s energy objectives.
Topic:: Reform, Finance, Investment, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

39. Strategies to future-proof Zambia: Debt relief and beyond

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Debt relief negotiations are currently taking place, with Zambia expected to be the first country to receive debt relief under the newly created G20 Common Framework. However, the process faces challenges, with China and the United States trading accusations of impeding the process. Some of Zambia's creditors have also been unwilling to agree to write off some of the country's debt. Positively, innovative approaches to debt relief have been proposed that would support Zambia's net-zero ambitions and promote sustainable development, such as debt for nature swaps. The integration of Zambia into the European Union's Critical Minerals framework could further support and assist Zambia in attaining a deal. Without a deal, Zambia risks being plunged into further macroeconomic uncertainty at a time when the country needs investment to capitalise on opportunities presented by political stability and structurally higher prices for copper and other critical minerals with which Zambi a is endowed.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Natural Resources, Political stability, Mining, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

40. Enhancing political accountability in South Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai and Mxolisi Zondo
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Enshrined in the founding provisions of South Africa’s democratic constitution is the commitment to a “multi-party system of democratic government, to ensure accountability, responsiveness and openness”.1 Today, South Africa is entering a new form of multiparty governance through the emergence of coalition governments in municipalities across the country. Following the Constitutional Court’s June 2020 decision to strike down parts of the Electoral Act of 1998, there have also been critical discussions about whether our national and provincial electoral framework of proportional representation fosters the accountability and responsiveness to which our constitution aspires.2 Both the nascent era of widespread coalition governance and the debate over electoral reform occur while the confidence that citizens have in our democracy is depreciating. In order to revive South Africans’ belief in our democratic system, we must renew that system to improve accountability. Many of the policy proposals that Good Governance Africa (GGA) considers in this briefing already exist,3 but we evaluate them in specific relation to how they can deepen political accountability in South Africa. The upshot is that a shift in approach from our institutions, political parties, civil society and citizens themselves is required.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Accountability, Social Contract, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

41. Our climate future depends on conflict dynamics in Congo

Author:: Peer Schouten, Judith Verweijen, and Fergus Simpson
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Congo Basin rainforest – the second largest on earth – absorbs four percent of global CO2 emissions and constitutes a crucial line of defense against cataclysmic climate change. However, a complex mix of illegal resource exploitation and conflict is currently threatening the rainforest. To curb these threats and their global consequenses, we need to understand the interplay between resources, conflict and environmental protection in Congo.
Topic:: Climate Change, Armed Forces, Conflict, Carbon Emissions, Forest, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

42. No climate security without human security: Insights from Africa’s climate hotspots

Author:: Louise Wiuff Moe and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As Denmark prepares its candidature for a non-permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council in 2025-26, priority should go to shifting the international climate security agenda from state security and military responses to human security and climate change adaptation in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, UN Security Council, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa

43. Our climate future depends on conflict dynamics in Congo

Author:: Peer Schouten, Judith Verweijen, and Fergus Simpson
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Congo Basin rainforest – the second largest on earth – absorbs four percent of global CO2 emissions and constitutes a crucial line of defense against cataclysmic climate change. However, a complex mix of illegal resource exploitation and conflict is currently threatening the rainforest. To curb these threats and their global consequenses, we need to understand the interplay between resources, conflict and environmental protection in Congo.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Food, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Inequality, Fragile States, Violence, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

44. Russia´s comprehensive approach and the increased use of the Wagner Group challenges the West in Africa

Author:: Karen Philippa Larsen and Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In the 2010s, Russia gradually returned to the African continent, where the Soviet Union was an influential actor for decades. The culmination of Russia’s public reorientation to Africa so far has been the high profile Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi in October 2019. In his opening address to the Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted how “representatives of all 54 African states and leading regional organizations are gathered here. This is indeed the first meeting of such a scale, and this is a convincing testament to the mutual desire to develop contacts in all directions, to strengthen the multifaceted partnership”. Russia has many interests in Africa. One fundamental interest relates to the international distribution of power. As a self-defined great power with an ambition to extend its influence still further beyond its immediate regional setting, Russia is almost compelled to attempt to gain a stronger presence in Africa. Both trade and the exploration of energy and minerals support this ambition, but its other tools include economic support (including by writing off debt), military support (for instance through the provision of training assistance or even the deployment of troops), as well as political support (for instance by using Russia’s weight as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to publicly defend regimes under pressure or even to prevent the passing of critical statements or the introduction of sanctions). To illustrate, in January 2022, the Russian delegation to the United Nations strongly opposed the introduction of new sanctions against the interim government in Mali, noting that “we have always been guided by the principle of African solutions to African problems”. Other interests relate to trade (with a turnover of USD 20bn in 2020) and to the exploration of natural resources. Within the field of trade, Russian arms exports stand out. In the years 2016-2020, Russian arms exports to African states accounted for 18 per cent of all Russian arms exports, a 23 per cent increase over the period of 2011-2015. By contrast, Russia’s share of the global arms market decreased by 22 per cent in the decade of 2011-2020. This latter development is a clear sign of a very competitive market, and it suggests that emerging markets, such as Africa, will become increasingly important to Russian arms producers. The main importers are Egypt, Algeria, and Angola (where Russian producers supply 41 per cent, 69 per cent, and 64 per cent, respectively, of national imports).
Topic:: Wagner Group, Military, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Denmark

45. A Likely Failure: What are the prospects of success for African Union’s effort to mediate in the Tigray War?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Weeks into resumed fighting between the Ethiopian government and regional rebel militias, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), rivals have agreed to the African Union’s (AU) invitation to sit at the negotiation table, set to be held in Pretoria, South Africa. The first round of negotiations has been delayed, however, indicating tensions and the possibility of returning to armed conflict again.
Topic:: African Union, Mediation, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

46. Regional Expansion: Implications of Al-Shabab's escalation of attacks inside and outside Somalia

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Somalia recently witnessed a remarkable escalation of attacks by the al-Shabab, not only inside Somalia but also in the Horn of Africa, especially in Kenya and Ethiopia, as the terror group is seeking to expand across the region.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Al-Shabaab, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

47. A New Populist President: William Ruto’s victory and Kenya’s future

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Across Kenya, anticipating supporters of outgoing government candidate Raila Odinga had anxiously been listening in on radios or staring at television screens, waiting for the country’s presidential elections results. Their favourite candidate had lost the elections. At Nairobi’s national election centre, Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Wafula Chebukati, had announced Ruto’s narrow win but fled the building quickly after. Chaos ensued: police forces stormed the hall as Odinga supporters punched through to the stage. Chairman Chebukati left the centre under police protection, national music blaring through the speakers. The country seems to be on the verge of another wave of violent unrests.
Topic:: Populism, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

48. NIGAL: Algeria, Niger, & Nigeria revive talks on Saharan Gas Pipeline

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Algeria, Niger, and Nigeria held talks on June 20 and 21, 2022 in the Nigerian capital Abuja on the revival of a decades-old project to pipe gas across the Sahara, a potential opportunity for Europe to diversify its gas sources, media reported. Alegria’s Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said the meeting was “important and successful”, setting the “first building block” for a project that’s been just an idea for over 15 years. It was agreed to continue consultations through the technical team that was formed in Abuja and tasking it to prepare the necessary feasibility studies for the project. It was also agreed that the three ministers should meet again no later than the end of July in Algeria.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Gas, Economy, and Pipeline
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, Nigeria, Niger, and Sahara

49. Berlin’s Hesitation: Implications of German Foreign Minister’s tour to Mali and Niger

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, on April 12 and 13, made an important visit to Mali and Niger that is set to determine the future of Germany’s military presence in Mali. The German government is divided into those who support a continued presence in Mali and those who push for complete withdrawal of the German troops from the African country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Armed Forces, European Union, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Germany, Mali, and Niger

50. French Anticipation: Algerian mediation between Mali and the ECOWAS

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On January 24, 2022, an Algerian delegation arrived in Bamako, the capital of Mali, led by the Algeria’s special envoy for the Sahel and Africa Boudjemaa Delmi. The visit was part of the initiative proposed by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to mediate between Mali and the members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to resolve the tension which has escalated between the two parties following the strict sanctions imposed by the ECOWAS on Bamako. The sanctions were imposed in response to the decision of Mali's junta to extend the transition period for five more years.
Topic:: Diplomacy, African Union, Mediation, Regional Politics, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

51. The Russian Role! The domestic and regional dimensions of the military coup in Burkina Faso

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In January 24, 2022, members of the army in Burkina Faso announced their seizure of power and the dismissal of Burkinabé President Roch Marc Kaboré. One of the officers who seized power delivered a statement on state television, signed by Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Head of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR), announcing the overthrow of the government, thus joining Burkina Faso to Mali and Guinea, in the third military coup in West Africa in just eight months.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, France, and Burkina Faso

52. North Africa Can Reduce Europe's Dependence on Russian Gas by Transporting Wasted Gas Through Existing Infrastructure

Author:: Mark Davis, Perrine Toledano, and Thomas Schorr
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: North Africa can reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas by transporting wasted gas through existing infrastructure.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

53. Immediate Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:: Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: South Sudanese civilians face a risk of mass atrocities from government forces, armed militia, and opposition groups as political instability at the national level increases. Impunity has fostered a culture in which the commission of mass atrocity crimes is normalized. In the leadup to the 2023 elections, President Salva Kiir could lead violent crackdowns on organized gatherings in an effort to silence opposition. If government and opposition forces continue to unify into a single army, infighting could spill over into violence against and among civilian groups.
Topic:: Impunity, Violence, Atrocities, Opposition, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

54. Analysis of the Healthcare Sector in Africa and Its Policy Implications for Korea

Author:: Young Ho Park, Munsu Kang, Yejin Kim, Kyu Tae Park, and Young-Chool Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: One of the main changes in Korea’s foreign affairs in recent years is the expansion of official development assistance (ODA), among which Africa is showing particularly rapid growth. Korea’s ODA to Africa accounted for 15% of its total ODA budget in 2010, and rose to 25% in 2019 as Korea emphasized its role in international development. Korea ranks 11th in terms of the cumulative size of ODA to the African healthcare sector between 2011–2019, totaling 674 million USD. As Korea’s expansion of ODA and solidarity in international development aid to respond to COVID-19 are related, the expansion of ODA in the African healthcare sector is anticipated to continue. This study analyzes features of the healthcare sector in Africa in an effort to suggest various plans for development cooperation, based on an evaluation of Korea’s ODA project design to enable the effective provision of ODA.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Health, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, and South Korea

55. The European strategy for a 'New Deal' with Africa

Author:: Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On 17 and 18 February will take place in Brussels the 6th Summit between the European Union and the African Union - a vital meeting for Afro-European relations. The heads of state and government (twenty-seven Europeans and fifty-five Africans) are invited to discuss issues such as financing growth, the future of health systems, vaccine production, agriculture, education, vocational training, culture, immigration, mobility, support for the private sector and economic integration, governance, peace, security, climate change and the energy transition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

56. Building downstream capacity for critical minerals in Africa: Challenges and opportunities

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Demand for critical minerals—bauxite, cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and other minerals that underpin solar, wind, geothermal, and other forms of renewable energy and electric vehicles—is already booming and is projected to continue to grow at a rapid pace. Africa’s mineral-rich developing economies could benefit greatly from this increase in demand. Many African economies have vast critical mineral reserves, and their nascent industrial sectors imply vast export potential. These countries could increase the benefits they reap from these minerals by building downstream capacity in processing—the steps that turn mined ore (bauxite, iron ore) into refined intermediate goods (aluminum, steel). To do so, however, they need to improve their infrastructure, investment climate, and governance and learn to navigate an increasingly complicated geopolitical environment. Hendrix assesses the challenges facing four critical mineral–rich developing African economies: Guinea (bauxite); the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt); Madagascar (graphite and nickel); and Mozambique (graphite). The solutions he offers include (a) embracing hydropower potential—which is vast in these countries—while paying attention to social costs and distributive impacts, (b) exempting refinery-related capital goods and industrial inputs from import duties, (c) locating downstream capacity in areas of relative stability, and (d) leveraging external policy anchors to provide policy stability and transparency.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Economy, Supply Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

57. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors

Author:: Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa

58. How China Came to Dominate the Global EV Lithium-ion Battery Value Chain: Lessons and Opportunities for Africa

Author:: Xieshu Wang
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: The electrification of vehicles is accelerating and the global automotive industry is under full transformation. China has become an indispensable partner for EV makers as the only country that has succeeded in building a complete and competitive industry value chain of EV lithium-ion batteries. Top-down government-led policymaking has been an important driver; bottom-up firm-level vertical integration strategy and investments have effectively created a closedloop supply chain. Africa is still at an early stage in this mobility transition. But with its rich deposits of minerals and potential markets, it can become a key player in the global EV value chain, if a favourable ecosystem for the fast uptake of EV and related green businesses could be developed in time.
Topic:: Industry, Global Value Chains, Lithium, Automotive Industry, Batteries, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: Africa and China

59. The UN Environmental and Climate Adviser in Somalia

Author:: Jenna Russo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) was among the first special political missions to receive climate-related language in its mandate, reflecting Somalia’s acute vulnerability to the impact of climate change. In 2020, UNSOM also became the first mission to have an environmental and climate adviser deployed to help implement this mandate. The adviser’s work is structured around three pillars: Mainstreaming the environment and climate throughout the mission’s mandated areas of work; Coordinating UN agencies, government actors, and NGOs working on climate across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding sectors; and Supporting the government in developing, funding, and coordinating its climate action plans and policies. This issue brief reviews the role of the environmental and climate adviser in Somalia, including their areas of work, successes, challenges, and opportunities for replication in other mission settings. Strong buy-in from both mission leaders and national and regional counterparts has facilitated the adviser’s ability to help the mission implement its mandate relating to climate change, environmental degradation, and other ecological challenges. Furthermore, the adviser has successfully helped to coordinate climate-related work, incorporate strategic analyses into climate-related risk assessments and responses, and liaise with local actors. The adviser has also faced challenges, including the broad scope of work tasked to a single person and the unique set of skills required, as well as the political contention surrounding the concept of climate security. The brief concludes by looking ahead to the growth of environmental and climate advisers in other UN missions and the importance of understanding and addressing interlinkages among climate, peace, and security as the impacts of climate change accelerate.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Peacekeeping, and UNSOM
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

60. Disinformation against UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author:: Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Over the past few years, a growing barrage of disinformation has targeted UN peacekeeping operations, particularly the missions in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), Mali (MINUSMA), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This includes false allegations that UN peacekeepers are trafficking weapons to armed groups, supporting terrorists, and exploiting natural resources. This disinformation makes it harder for peacekeeping operations to implement their mandates and has put the safety of peacekeepers at risk. This paper provides an overview of the recent rise in disinformation against MINUSCA, MINUSMA, and MONUSCO. It also examines how these three peacekeeping operations have been addressing disinformation and the challenges they have faced. While these initial efforts have tended to focus on strategic communications, disinformation is not only a strategic communications issue; it affects all mission components, and effectively tackling it requires situating it in the broader political context and understanding its drivers. This paper offers the following questions the UN Department of Peace Operations and individual missions could consider as they develop policies, guidelines, structures, and activities to address disinformation: How can missions develop a cross-cutting, strategic approach to disinformation? Disinformation is more than a technical or tactical issue; it is a political and strategic issue that requires the proactive attention of mission leaders. How can missions better monitor and analyze disinformation both online and offline? Monitoring disinformation is critical not only so missions can address it; tracking rumors also has intrinsic value by helping missions better listen to and understand the sentiments of local populations. How can missions respond to disinformation more quickly? For many UN personnel, the slowness of the UN response is one of the biggest challenges inhibiting their efforts to address disinformation. How can missions reshape anti-UN narratives? Anti-UN disinformation is woven into a broader anti-UN (and anticolonial) narrative that is grounded in both great-power politics and legitimate public grievances. In countering individual falsehoods, missions should consider whether and how they could also respond to this broader narrative. How can missions contribute to a healthier information environment? From the perspective of civil society, the most important shift the UN can make would be to focus more on supporting local journalists. Does the scale of the problem call for a more decisive shift in approach? Any shift in approach should be premised on the principle that under no circumstances should missions respond to disinformation with disinformation of their own.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central African Republic

61. Advancing Youth Inclusion and Violence Prevention through Public Support Programmes

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: State-run socio-economic and livelihood support programmes have been shown to increase the social inclusion of young people and thereby contribute to the prevention of violence involving youth. This practice brief outlines strategies for civil society practitioners to advocate for these public programmes, improve their implementation and amplify their positive effects, based on experiences in Southern and East Africa.
Topic:: Youth, Violence, Inclusion, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and East Africa

62. Youth Inclusion in the Development of South Africa's National Youth Policy (2020–2030): Reflections and Recommendations

Author:: Steven Rebello
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: South Africa's National Youth Policy (NYP) 2020–2030 (DWYPD, 2020) represents the country's third attempt to outline actions that can or should be taken, by government and other stakeholders, to facilitate youth development at local and national levels. Meaningful youth inclusion and participation represents a central value within this policy. This emphasis on inclusion aligns with the Constitution of South Africa, where public participation in governance is enshrined as a constitutional imperative. Recognising this emphasis on youth inclusion, the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR) engaged with a key representative within the Department of Women, Youth and People with Disabilities (DWYPD) to determine what steps or activities the department has initiated to include youth in the development of the NYP 2020–2030 (hereafter referred to as the NYP 2030).
Topic:: Development, Governance, Youth, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

63. The Youth's Continent: Meaningful Youth Inclusion in Policy and Programme Cycles

Author:: Steven Rebello, Brian Kimari, and Mwangi Mwaura
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief develops from research carried out by the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR, South Africa) and the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS, Kenya). Known as the Youth Inclusion for Violence Prevention Project, this research investigated the role of socio-economic and livelihood support programmes in promoting youth social and economic inclusion and preventing violence. A key finding of the research highlighted how such programmes continue to follow a top-down approach, where youth are either merely viewed as beneficiaries or not meaningfully involved in conceptualising, implementing, evaluating and revising such programmes. A discussion around the value of greater youth inclusion is supplemented with examples of how youth may have been more meaningfully included in South Africa's Community Work Programme (CWP) as well as Kenya's Youth Employment Opportunities Project (KYEOP). The brief concludes with recommendations relevant to youth inclusion in these as well as other socio-economic and livelihood support programmes.
Topic:: Employment, Youth, Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

64. Climate Finance in West Africa: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s regions worst hit by the climate crisis

Author:: Norman Martin Casas and Azara Remalia Sanogo
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In West Africa/Sahel, countries and their communities are experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Elsewhere, Paris Agreement climate finance commitments are set to prioritise the countries that are most impacted by climate change. However, new research by Oxfam shows that, despite West Africa/Sahel being one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the international climate finance received falls far short of meeting national climate finance needs and is being significantly over-reported in favour of debt instruments. Adaptation finance is also insufficient. Reported climate finance does not place gender equality at the centre, and only a small part directly reaches local actors. In light of this, developed countries and other donors should scale up grant-based adaptation finance that reaches the local level and responds to the real needs of particularly hard-hit regions such as West Africa/Sahel.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Sahel

65. Violent Extremist and Terrorist Threats: Examining Ghana’s Preparedness

Author:: Mawusi Yaw Dumenu
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The growing spate of violent extremism and terrorism in the sub-region spells doom for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 16 which focuses on Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. Ghana is now the only country among the earlier mentioned coastal states that has not suffered from any violent extremist and terrorist violence. This notwithstanding, there have been several alarming incidents involving extremist attacks that have occurred in close proximity to Ghana’s borders.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

66. An Alternative Approach to U.S. Sahel Policy

Author:: Alex Thurston
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The Sahel region of Africa is in freefall. Upwards of 19 million people need humanitarian assistance, five coups have occurred since 2020, jihadists and militias are killing thousands, and security forces and Russian mercenaries abuse civilians with impunity. The Sahel’s primary external actor, France, pursues intensive counterterrorism with the aim of helping Sahelian national authorities to reassert legitimacy; France also seeks to retain influence over its former colonies. But French policy has floundered. Anti-French sentiments drove France mostly out of Mali, one epicenter of the Sahel crisis, and many other Sahelians resent perceived French encroachments on their sovereignty. The United States lacks a real policy for the Sahel. Rather, U.S. policy drifts and reacts. Important humanitarian and development programs are overshadowed by securitized rhetoric and undermined by the considerable U.S. military activity in the Sahel, including vestiges of the “War on Terror.” The White House’s 2022 National Security Strategy, its Africa Strategy, and a forthcoming Sahel Strategy envision diverse efforts going beyond counterterrorism, but they read as laundry lists of priorities rather than as concrete plans of action. The vagueness of existing policy risks allowing obsolete assumptions and programs to continue.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Mali, and Sahel

67. Understanding the Firm-Level Export Diversification Characteristics in Botswana

Author:: Pinkie Gertrude Kebakile
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: This Policy Brief unravels interesting insights pertaining to firm-level export diversification characteristics in Botswana, which is an approach that views export diversification at the micro-level. The following are the key highlights from the Policy Brief: • Exporters whose export portfolios are varied in terms of products and export markets, commonly referred to as multi-product multi-destination exporters in the literature fetch high export values, which is a prerequisite for sustained economic growth in the country. • The growth and diversification of Botswana’s export bundle is undermined by the exporters’ inability to break into new export markets. • The main policy message is therefore that to transition from the upper-middle income status to high-income status by 2036, the country needs to nurture and develop the multi-product multi-destination exporters. Targeted interventions aimed at developing these exporters are therefore called for.
Topic:: Business, Economic Growth, Diversification, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

68. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Party System, Multi Party System, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

69. Rising concern, falling performance: Health-sector challenges evident before and after onset of COVID-19 pandemic

Author:: Carolyn Logan and Tosin Salau
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: As Africa and the world begin to regroup now that the worst ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic appear to be past, it is an opportune time to take stock of the state of health care systems on the continent. The pandemic is not over – South Africa is just coming out of its fifth wave of infection (Al Jazeera, 2022), and there may be more to come (Landman, Irfan, & Resnick, 2022). In the meantime, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (2022) and national governments continue to scale up their vaccination campaigns. But the war in Ukraine and global economic deterioration have finally supplanted COVID-19 at the top of the news cycle. In the early stages of the pandemic, many assessments warned of the possibly extreme vulnerability of Africans to the pandemic based in part on the many challenges already facing health care systems across much of the continent (Mattes, Logan, Gyimah-Boadi, & Ellison, 2020). While the direst predictions did not come to pass in most countries – South Africa being a notable exception – the pandemic has highlighted gaps in health systems amid the recognition that the next global health crisis could hit harder if improvements and preparations are not made. Taking a longer-term view, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) also highlight the need to strengthen health systems (United Nations, 2018). SDG#3 focuses on good health and well-being. But Afrobarometer’s SDG Scorecards, based on our most recent data from 34 countries surveyed in Round 8 (2019/2021), show that from the perspective of citizens, only a handful of countries have been making significant progress toward achieving this SDG (Afrobarometer, 2021). Instead, a growing number of Africans report going without medical care, and the share who cite health as one of their country’s most important problems is also on the rise. Even among those who do get care, increasing proportions report finding it difficult, and having to pay bribes, to obtain the medical services they need. Not surprisingly, citizens are also increasingly critical of their governments’ performance in this sector: For the first time in two decades of Afrobarometer polling, a majority of respondents say their governments are performing badly on improving basic health services. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the challenges wrought by the pandemic were not the cause of these increasingly negative reviews: The downward trends were already under way before COVID-19 entered the picture, and in fact, in some cases the trends appear to be somewhat less negative since the onset of the pandemic.
Topic:: Health, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

70. Unresponsive and corrupt? Ugandan MPs hold key to how citizens perceive them

Author:: Matthias Krönke and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Uganda’s legislature is made up of 556 members of Parliament (MPs) who are meant to represent and serve their constituents and oversee the government’s actions. Since President Yoweri Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party came to power in 1986 and appointed all members of Parliament, the country’s legislature has changed in several important ways (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009). First, today all MPs are either directly elected via a first-past-the-post system or indirectly elected via special electoral colleges. Second, the number of parliamentarians has almost doubled over 25 years, from 295 in the 6th Parliament (1996-2001) to 556 in the current 11th Parliament (Inter-Parliamentary Union, 1996; Parliament of Uganda, 2022).1 This drastic increase can be attributed to the continued creation of new constituencies and the allocation of parliamentary seats for special-interest groups. Proponents of this development say it reflects citizens’ demands, but critics describe it as part of a political strategy to protect and grow the ruling party’s seat share in Parliament by increasing the number of constituencies in NRM strongholds (Nakatudde, 2020; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). This debate has now entered a new phase with the recent ruling by the country’s Constitutional Court that Parliament and the Electoral Commission violated articles 51 and 63 of the Constitution by creating new constituencies that do not meet the population quota, based on data from the 2002 and 2014 census counts. The upshot of this ruling are proposals to downsize Uganda’s Parliament and redraw constituency boundaries (Barigaba, 2022). Third, the operating costs of the growing Parliament (MP and staff salaries, allowances, etc.) have increased drastically over the past two decades. Today Ugandan MPs’ salaries (35 million Uganda shillings, or about USD 9,700, per month) surpass those of most MPs elsewhere in Africa and in the European Union (BusinessTech, 2017; Olukya, 2021; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). The cost of running Uganda’s 11th Parliament was expected to increase by more than 50 billion Ugandan shillings (USD 14.1 million), a substantial increase compared to the previous Parliament (Mufumba, 2021). Fourth, the share of MPs who return to Parliament after their first term in office continues to decrease. While about 50% of MPs did not return for a second term in the 6th (1996-2001) and 7th (2001-2006) Parliaments, this rate has increased to 53% (2006-2011), 55% (2011-2016), and 58% (2016-2021) in subsequent Parliaments. Most recently, of the 457 MPs in the 10th Parliament, 319 were not voted back to the 11th Parliament (2021-2026), while 31 did not contest or chose to run for other offices, and only 107 MPs returned (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009; Forum for Women in Democracy, 2016; Independent, 2021). How do these changes affect 1) how citizens relate to their elected representatives and 2) how MPs address the needs of ordinary citizens? More broadly, are citizens being served by their MPs? To answer these questions, this policy paper begins by clarifying the foundations of the citizen-MP relationship and outlining the four key roles that MPs are generally expected to fulfil. The subsequent sections assess their performance in these roles against citizen expectations and other indicators. We find that Ugandans are becoming increasingly aware of their role in holding their MPs accountable. Most citizens are dissatisfied with how their MPs are doing their jobs, perceive them as corrupt, and say MPs don’t listen to constituents’ concerns. Residents of the Central region and Kampala are particularly critical of their MPs’ performance, probably due at least in part to high constituent-to-MP ratios in those areas. Citizens’ assessments of MP performance are associated with MPs’ perceived responsiveness and corruption as well as whether citizens have had contact with their MPs. In contrast, citizens’ demographic characteristics and views about democracy do not seem to drive their views of their elected representatives. There are two clear policy implications of these findings. First, at the institutional level, it is important to even out the citizen-to-MP ratios across the country. This is in line with the recent constitutional court ruling to base the creation of constituencies on census data. The second policy implication of our findings is that MPs have it in their own hands to change how citizens view their performance by improving on how they engage with them.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

71. Profile and determinants of lived poverty in Benin

Author:: Romaric Samson and Richard Houessou
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, launched in 2015, outlines global aspirations and priorities through the end of this decade. Prominently, the first two Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for ending poverty “in all its forms everywhere” and for “zero hunger” (United Nations, 2021a). The proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty decreased from 36% in 1990 to 16% in 2010 and to 10% in 2015, but the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have reversed this trend (Sumner, Hoy, & Ortiz-Juarez, 2020). Benin has had one of the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years (Adegoke, 2019), with per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 3.6% between 2017 and 2019 (World Bank, 2020). But the most recent household survey led by the Institut National de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique (2018) estimated that 38.5% of citizens still live in poverty. Are GDP gains translating into better lives for ordinary Beninese? According to Afrobarometer survey findings, “lived poverty” – the experience of going without basic life necessities – has worsened significantly over the past decade in Benin. More than three out of four Beninese face moderate or high levels of lived poverty. Many of these citizens continue to have limited access to the electricity grid, water and sanitation services, and other essential development infrastructure. Most importantly, our analysis shows they often lack the education and employment needed to break the poverty cycle.
Topic:: Education, Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: Africa and Benin

72. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement

Author:: Samuel Igbatayo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia-Pacific

73. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Munsu Kang
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study investigates the climate change impacts on agriculture and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA is the most vulnerable region responding to the weather shocks such as drought and flood. Furthermore, more than half of population in SSA are engaged in agricultural production that is highly affected by the rainfall pattern and temperature increases. For this reason, disruption of agriculture caused by the weather shock also can increase the probability of conflict such as demonstration and riot. This study focuses on 43 SSA countries after excluded small islands. Using scenario analysis, we find that temperature increases rather than precipitation might affect maize and sorghum production negatively while it is unclear for the rice production. We also find that increases in average temperature and maximum temperature might increase the probability of conflicts even if the effects of climate on riot and demonstration are U-shape pattern while it is reverse U-shape for battle and civilian conflicts.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

74. Finding a Path through Quagmire

Author:: Will Brown
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: n the Central Sahelian nations of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, a decade of violent instability has left 18 million individuals in need of humanitarian assistance. Climate change, underdevelopment, ethnic violence, corruption, and state decay have left civilians in need of peacebuilding, humanitarian, and development support. The deterioration of security conditions, however, has limited civilian access to essential services and impacted humanitarian response capabilities. Donors have promoted the “triple nexus” approach aimed at enhancing the coordination and effectiveness of humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding interventions. Yet, implementation in the Sahel has been hamstrung by a lack of common understanding among partners and a disconnect between the interests and operations of humanitarian and security actors. For the triple nexus approach to effectively improve conditions in the Sahel, humanitarian, development, and security partners must improve collaboration. Actors in the region should develop operational frameworks that ensure they enhance complementary objectives.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Intervention, Humanitarian Crisis, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

75. Laying Foundations for Civic Engagement and Government Accountability in Guinea (2011-2020)

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: When President Alpha Condé took office after Guinea’s first democratic election in 2010, he promised to reform the country’s mining sector. Following decades of sector mismanagement and corruption, Guinea introduced a new mining code in 2011 (later amended in 2013) and, in 2012, the government committed to implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Standard and reviewed 19 mining contracts signed by previous administrations. This reform effort precipitated a significant expansion of the industry: investments picked up and bauxite exports rose, and mining revenues grew. Despite progress, and because of the speed of mining expansion, communities in mining areas experienced increasingly negative impacts from the industry. Their interests went unaddressed; the government had been slow to implement key regulations aimed at protecting them. As a result, 2016 saw uprisings in key bauxite-producing areas. In addition, civil society engagement on extractive issues was weak and fragmented; citizens, activists and journalists lacked crucial information and were ill-equipped to engage on key governance issues.
Topic:: Government, Natural Resources, Governance, Accountability, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea

76. Resource-Backed Loans in Ghana: Risks, Opportunities and Lessons

Author:: Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Developing countries have trouble financing development mainly due to limited access to capital markets, high cost of borrowing, slow growth, or a mix of these. Countries with natural resource endowments have attempted in the last few decades to leverage these endowments to surmount those challenges. Many of their development efforts focus on closing huge infrastructure gaps. Ghana is a producer of cocoa, minerals, oil and gas—assets that have increasingly featured in the government’s infrastructure financing plans. Ghana’s infrastructure financing totaled USD 23 billion between 2007 and 2020, and annual infrastructure investment will need to reach $9.3 billion by 2030 (13.9 percent of 2019 GDP). Official development funding and private sector financing have been inadequate to meet these infrastructure needs. As a result, the Ghana Infrastructure Plan identifies Chinese infrastructural funding as a source to fill the gap. Ghana’s infrastructure financing has in part relied on leveraging its natural resources. Through resource-backed loans (RBLs), governments (directly or through state-owned companies) borrow funds and repay the loans in physical natural resources or with money from resource-related future income streams. Ghana has entered into three such RBL deals, totaling more than $5 billion, in the last two decades; all three involve Chinese state-owned enterprises as lenders.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Resource-Backed Loans, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

77. NRGI Impact: Guinean Communities Benefit from Mining Revenues and Civil Society Capacity Building

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Like many resource-rich low-income countries, Guinea faces challenges in leveraging its natural resource wealth for sustainable development. Despite being the world’s second largest bauxite producer and rich in iron ore, gold and diamonds, Guinea has so far delivered only limited benefits from mining to its citizens, more than half of whom live in poverty. Guinea introduced sector-wide reforms following democratization in 2010 and is successfully implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). However, social unrest, political instability, and the impacts of the Ebola crisis and coronavirus pandemic have slowed the country’s progress toward ensuring that mining income helps improve citizens’ quality of life.
Topic:: Civil Society, Natural Resources, Mining, Revenue Management, and Revenue Sharing
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea

78. Social Protection Reforms in the MENA Region: Possibilities and Challenges

Author:: Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world in 2020 revealed a huge gap in access to public services, equality and government responsiveness to the consequences of the pandemic. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the COVID-19 crisis showed the inadequacy of the public institutions and their abilities to protect the poor, and ensure that populations’ needs are met, especially informal workers, women, children and the elderly. The social protection systems in the MENA countries are relatively weak, facing challenges or disfunctions through many ad-hoc programmes, making it difficult to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. This is particularly observed in countries facing a pre- COVID-19 economic crisis, such as Lebanon. There is clear evidence that social protection systems have a positive impact on the lives of the population in times of crisis. They improve access to health and education, and increase economic security. Social protection systems work during times of crisis and times of stability, but they are strategic tools that show that states have the capacity to design and deploy policy tools to protect people. In divided societies, inequalities are usually wider and, therefore, a comprehensive social protection system with a high rate of coverage is needed. In this Policy Study, we present four chapters, examining the state-of-the-art of social protection systems in the MENA region, challenges, and potential opportunities that government, local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and the European Union (EU) could take to assist in establishing comprehensive social protection systems. The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to learn and identify where the gaps are and what needs to be done by formal and informal institutions in the MENA region to reform and re-engineer their social protection systems with help from the EU and its institutions. COVID-19 arrived in the MENA region during an economic crisis in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, marked by huge inequalities, vulnerabilities with increasing poverty and low trust in governments and their performance. Lockdown, closure and physical distancing have also led to loss of jobs and income for millions of people, mainly informal workers, and businesses. The vulnerable groups who are already living in economic distress, such as informal workers, youth, women and the elderly, are the most affected parts of the population. They are the most vulnerable to loss of income and unemployment. This study highlights that MENA states lack comprehensive and effective social protection systems. In many MENA countries, ad-hoc programmes substitute a comprehensive social protection system. The study examines the rural-urban and socioeconomic group gaps in accessing services, such as health and education, and economic opportunities. It shows that the historic gap between urban-rural and socioeconomic groups' ability to access the same services and opportunities compared to other groups affected the ability of those groups to cope with the pandemic, exposing them to more vulnerability. The study examines the policy response of the MENA governments to the pandemic, namely in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco – four countries that have been particularly challenged by COVID-19. It identifies several gaps and op- portunities to develop the social protection system. The study examines cash- based programmes, access to public health, informal workers, women’s protection, digitalisation of social protection systems, and education, to some extent. It focuses on youth, women, the elderly, disabled persons and children as the most vulnerable groups in the region. It identifies that coordination between formal in- stitutions and INGOs needs to be formalised, informal workers need to be included in the social protection system, women and the elderly should be prioritised, and informal social protection mechanisms could be supported through livelihood activities, but is not seen as a major part of any social protection mechanism. It finally highlights the need for digitalisation of reformed social protection systems or strategies.
Topic:: Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

79. Times they are A-changin’: Africa at the Centre Stage of the new (II) Liberal World Order

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Amid a renewed Global Power competition, Africa’s abundance of natural resources, its exponential demographic development, and the current expansion of militant Islamist groups in the region, increases its strategic importance and pushes the continent to the center stage of international relations. This brief explores Africa’s position in this changing global context and examines major actors’ presence in, and stance towards, Africa on the global arena. It does this while arguing that as the competition for influence and access to resources in Africa is intensified, Western actors need to become clearer about their interests, avoid ill-perceived imposition of conditionalities – unless they are willing to risk access and follow them through – and adopt a case-by case approach to states on a continent as diverse as Africa.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Liberal Order, and World System
Political Geography:: Africa

80. Al-Shabab in Mozambique: Taking Stock of an Insurgency Under Cover

Author:: Tom Van Rentergem
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Since the first attack in October 2017, Mozambique has been confronted with an extremist insurgency called Ansar Al-Sunna Wa Jamma (ASWJ), also known as Al-Shabab (not to be confused with Al-Shabab in Somalia). The alleged Jihadists targeted the Mozambican coastline and have carried out indiscriminate attacks in the Northern province of Cabo Delgado, with the capture of coastal towns Mocimboa Da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021 being important markers for the insurgents. The intense five-year conflict has resulted in 4,000 people dead and 800,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), roughly half of the province. The identity of the insurgents has become subject for debate among policy makers and researchers, raising questions about whether the group is primarily a local insurgency or whether there are tangible links to Jihadism in other areas of Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

81. Protecting Civilians From Those Who Should Protect Them

Author:: Delina Goxho
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: As violent attacks targeting civilians in the Sahel region of West Africa are mounting, allegations of abuses perpetrated by Sahelian armed forces share the news with attacks committed by non-state armed groups. This brief analyses the main shortcomings within the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with regard to ensuring meaningful Protection of Civilians (PoC) from their own security and defence forces. It finds that formal, structural measures to address state security forces’ abuse of civilians is lacking in all three states, although some promising initiatives to build trust between security forces and civilians have been held on a local level. On a regional level, the OHCHR-mandated Human Rights Compliance Framework, which has partially been adopted by regional force Force Conjointe – G5 Sahel (FC-G5S), represents an example of a mechanism that could ensure better protection of civilians both for the region, and on a national level. However, the advent of Russian paramilitary group Wagner in Mali and the most recent massacre of civilians in Moura is challenging all optimistic forecasting.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Africa

82. Who’s Been Making “African Solutions”? Mapping Membership Patterns in the African Union’s Peace and Security Council

Author:: Nina Wilen and Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This year marks the 20th anniversary since the establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union, the AU’s principal decision-making body for promoting peace, security, and stability in Africa. This brief examines the patterns and trends that have emerged during the past two decades of PSC elections and finds that African governments persistently elected autocrats and states experiencing violent conflict to serve on the PSC, thus undermining the AU’s principles. This pattern risks skewing PSC decision-making in unhelpful ways, undermining effective crisis management, and making it difficult to uphold the AU’s stated norms and principles.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Africa Union
Political Geography:: Africa

83. France in the Eastern Mediterranean and the MENA region’s geopolitical competition: French grandeur or European sovereignty?

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The global rivalry between the US and China, as well as geopolitical competition and instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood, are perceived by France as urgent matters requiring stronger EU foreign policy, conceptualized as European sovereignty. The French foreign policy elite are still largely committed to the idea of France’s exceptional role in the world, and to the extent that the EU as a whole fails to live up to the tasks presumed by France, continue their attempts at forging coalitions of the willing. France has in recent years built a web of strategic partnerships, for example with Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, through which it aims to govern the instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The aim is also to deter regional adversaries such as Turkey, a strategy that needs to be re-evaluated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France often equates its national interests with those of the EU. While this can be seen to enhance European sovereignty, it also risks increasing the perception that the EU would be a participant in various Middle Eastern conflicts. This undermines the EU’s ability to function as an objective broker and anchor of norms.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, and Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, France, North Africa, Mediterranean, and MENA

84. Barriers to Effective Whistleblowing in Botswana: Lessons from the Construction Industry

Author:: Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: Adopting Botswana’s construction industry as a case study, this Policy Brief examines key barriers to effective whistleblowing in Botswana. Data were drawn from 117 construction firms and interviews with regulators of this sector. Despite the enactment of the Whistleblowing Act 2016, the study finds the following key barriers to effective whistleblowing: (i) fear of retaliation or punishment, (ii) fear of job loss, (iii) absence of organisational whistleblowing policies, (iv) lack of incentive to report, (v) lack of education on whistleblowing, and (vi) insufficient action and follow-up on disclosures by authorities. From a policy perspective, there is a need to strengthen the existing legal protection offered to whistleblowers, their families and associates to ensure they are not subject to harm, retaliation or victimisation. There is also a need to increase levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in general, and the Whistleblowing Act 2016 in particular.
Topic:: Corruption, Regulation, Whistle Blowing, and Construction
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

85. ABCs of the IFIs: The African Development Fund’s 16th Replenishment

Author:: Jocilyn Estes and Erin Collinson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Many African countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to grapple with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic while simultaneously confronting the challenges posed by slowing global growth, private capital outflows, debt distress, and the impacts of climate change. An estimated 55 million people on the continent have been pushed into extreme poverty since the onset of the pandemic. This devastating trend has been exacerbated by the ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—supply chain disruptions, tightening fiscal space, and growing pressure on the cost of food, fuel, and fertilizer. International financial support for the continent has fallen woefully short of levels required to prevent the current crisis from derailing long-term development. The African Development Bank (AfDB) is the largest regional multilateral development finance institution on the continent. It provides critical financial support to countries across the region, including investment in vital infrastructure projects. The African Development Fund (AfDF) is the Bank’s concessional window, providing financing in the form of grants and concessional loans to resource-constrained governments responding to the growing challenges on the continent, including gaps in critical infrastructure and rising debt burdens. Amid ongoing and overlapping global emergencies, the stakes for the AfDF’s upcoming replenishment could hardly be higher. The AfDF is making the case to donors—who will come together later this year for a final meeting of the AfDF’s 16th replenishment (AfDF-16)—that the Fund needs substantial new resources to continue to support African people, businesses, and governments and make up lost ground in the fight against poverty. An ambitious 16th replenishment—coupled with policy and governance reform commitments—presents an opportunity for donors, including the United States, to complement long-standing investments in regional growth and infrastructure, offer a sustainable alternative to non-concessional Chinese lending, and make headway on the long road to economic recovery from the pandemic and worsening food security crisis.
Topic:: Development, Investment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

86. Recommendations for US-Africa Space Cooperation and Development

Author:: Rose Croshier
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The United States, a leader in space exploration and innovation, has a unique opportunity to establish enduring diplomatic, commercial, and security ties with African nations through space cooperation—with the potential to yield substantial development benefits. The U.S. space sector is robust, an area of comparative strength vis-à-vis Europe, Russia, and China. By driving space cooperation, the U.S. can reinforce the rules-based order as articulated in international agreements like the Artemis Accords. Expanded space capabilities can also support the achievement of several of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which range from improving data-driven governance to closing the global digital gap. U.S. policymakers have an opportunity to implement a collaborative approach with emerging African space actors both to grow a peaceful and law-abiding community in space and to benefit from Africa's contributions to the global space ecosystem. Space capability can also serve a crucial infrastructure role, yielding similar benefits to “traditional” infrastructure—including facilitating access to 5G connectivity through low orbit satellites and addressing clean water and food security needs through remote sensing and satellite communications.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Space, and Territory
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

87. Beyond 2025: The Future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act

Author:: Daniel F. Runde and Sundar R. Ramanujam
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the past two decades, the United States has provided assistance and support for sub-Saharan Africa’s efforts to transform its economic and trade relationships, centered around the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). First enacted into law on May 18, 2000, AGOA was designed to significantly enhance designated sub-Saharan African countries’ market access to the United States by providing duty-free treatment for specific import categories. The legislation’s primary goal was to promote economic growth through good governance and free markets. To qualify and remain eligible for AGOA, countries were expected to demonstrate progress toward market liberalization and to improve the rule of law, human rights protections, and core labor standards. More than 20 years later, AGOA continues to provide preferential treatment to 44 countries in the region, spanning over 6,500 tariff lines. Since May 2000, AGOA has been amended four times, mostly to clarify preferential treatment terms, technical standards, and sunset deadlines. The act was initially designed to be valid for eight years, expiring at the end of September 2007. In July 2004, however, President George W. Bush signed the AGOA Acceleration Act, extending it to 2015. Toward the end of his second term, in June 2015 President Barack Obama extended its validity by signing the Trade Preferences Extension Act, under which AGOA is set to expire in 2025. The global political and economic landscape has changed profoundly since AGOA was enacted in 2000, even before the Covid-19 pandemic created new disruptions and accelerated several ongoing changes. The mobile telephony revolution has created new opportunities for millions to participate in the digital sphere, use mobile banking and payments systems, and receive commercial, educational, and medical services via the internet. Even as the sub-Saharan African region’s middle class continues to grow, it is also set to experience a youth population boom in the next three decades—which, under the right conditions, could pay a demographic dividend and avert a social crisis. Meanwhile, the United States has also entered an era of great-power competition with China. With China’s influence in sub-Saharan Africa rising significantly, this competition is also playing out through the region’s political and economic institutions. Considering these opportunities and challenges, leaders in Washington (and their constituents across the United States) ought to look at Africa as a prospect for deepening commercial partnerships, not as a continent that needs to be “saved” through foreign assistance. Accordingly, the United States can consider one of the three following scenarios in response to AGOA’s current expiration timeline
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa

88. Power to the Cooks! New Clean Cooking Opportunities for Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Cédric Philibert
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: 2.6 billion people globally and 1 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) cook using biomass fuel. The detrimental effects on the environment and public health, as well as the time and money lost are considerable. If nothing new is done, this situation will worsen further in SSA. • The rapidly decreasing costs of solar power and batteries, coupled with efficient devices such as electric pressure cookers, alongside new business models, now offer an immense potential to achieve universal access to clean cooking. • Efficient electric cooking can be off or on grid, with or without batteries. It does not have to fulfill all cooking needs; fuel stacking is already common in many kitchens and should remain so. E-cooking can be cheaper than using biomass fuels, but high upfront costs must be broken down into manageable repayments. • Governments, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) often implement parallel strategies to increase access to electricity and to clean cooking. Integrated e-cooking strategies should be fostered and implemented to help achieve these sustainable development goals jointly by 2030.
Topic:: Sustainable Development Goals, Electricity, African Union, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa

89. Maximizing the Benefits of Trade for Africa

Author:: Prince Paa-Kwesi Heto
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: African countries are increasingly integrating into global supply chains (GSC). Yet the linkages between African and foreign firms and the impact of GSC activities on the development prospects of African states is not well understood. This policy brief analyzes GSC trade between the U.S. and China, on the one hand, and Southern African Customs Union (SACU) member states on the other. It shows that, contrary to the conventional wisdom that SACU states export raw materials with few value-added products, SACU states are actually positioned further up in the supply chain hierarchy. They import intermediate inputs from China and export a substantial volume of intermediate goods to the U.S. rather than to China. Moreover, GSC trade is diversifying the countries’ exports and increasing their industrial capacity, positioning African countries to attract companies moving out of China, whether because of high production costs, supply chain disruptions, U.S. tariffs, or geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China. But SACU states will need to adopt smart policies to upgrade existing supply chains and position themselves to build or attract new GSCs to their region.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, National Security, Innovation, Trade, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

90. Dangerous Delay 2: The cost of inaction

Author:: Emily Farr, Leah Finnegan, Joanna Grace, and Mathew Truscott
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In 2011, Somalia experienced a devastating famine that killed over a quarter of a million people. Afterwards, leaders in the region made a commitment to end drought emergencies by 2022. The international community sought to ensure that there would be no repeat of the failures that led to famine. Next time, the world would heed the warnings and act early to avoid the crisis. But despite various warnings and alarms over the past two years, the commitment to anticipatory action has proven half-hearted. We are once again responding too late and with too little to avert the crisis. In this follow-up to their 2012 briefing A Dangerous Delay, Oxfam and Save the Children, supported by the Jameel Observatory, examine what has changed and what has not in the humanitarian system since 2011. They explain how it must evolve in order to enable and fully fund anticipatory action. With the climate crisis set to deepen, the current system must change quickly in order to meet the challenges we face in the years ahead.
Topic:: Security, Famine, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

91. Protection Dilemmas Arising from the Reintegration of Former Combatants and the Impact of the Terrorist Designation

Author:: Agathe Sarfati and Phoebe Donnelly
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The concept and implementation of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have evolved as DDR-related activities have increasingly occurred in environments where armed conflict is ongoing, no peace agreement has been signed, and armed groups designated as terrorist organizations (AGDTOs) are operating. In parallel, reintegration has increasingly been discussed in the UN counterterrorism architecture through the concept of prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration (PRR). The changing context has raised challenges related to reintegration, especially reintegration of former members of AGDTOs. This policy paper analyzes the risks faced by individuals taking part in reintegration processes and by the communities they are reintegrating into. In particular, it analyzes how the designation of an armed group as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council or by a state impacts these risks while acknowledging that these risks largely depend on the broader context. The paper examines three case studies of current reintegration processes: (1) the process for reincorporating former combatants from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People’s Army (FARC-EP); (2) the defector program for former members of al-Shabaab in Somalia; and (3) the reintegration process for individuals associated with Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin. The paper concludes by recommending several steps the UN could take to help ensure that reintegration processes address protection risks, especially for former members of AGDTOs: Tailor reintegration programs to the context, not to whether a group is labeled as a terrorist organization; Design reintegration programs to be gender-sensitive and human rights–compliant; Ensure that PRR and DDR programs are complementary and adopt the Integrated DDR Standards module on AGDTOs; and Keep reintegration and counterterrorism goals distinct.
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:: Africa and Colombia

92. The Impact of Women Peacekeepers on Public Support for Peacekeeping in TroopContributing Countries

Author:: Laura Huber
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: There are several common assumptions about how women peacekeepers may impact public opinion in the countries from which they deploy. Women peacekeepers may boost public support for peacekeeping by increasing the perceived legitimacy of peacekeeping missions. They may also boost public support for women’s rights by challenging norms around the roles women should perform. Finally, there is a belief that the death of women peacekeepers could decrease support for peacekeeping. Drawing on two rounds of online public surveys in India and South Africa, this issue brief tests these assumptions. It also draws on an additional survey of UN member-state representatives in New York to understand how decision makers believe the deployment of women alters public support for peacekeeping. Overall, the surveys revealed relatively high levels of support for peacekeeping in both India and South Africa. Moreover, member-state representatives in New York indicated that they not only value public opinion on peacekeeping and consider it when making deployment decisions but also believe that the deployment of women peacekeepers increases support for UN peacekeeping. However, differences between the surveys of the two countries underscore that women peacekeepers may be perceived differently by the public in different contexts and may not always increase support for peacekeeping or women’s rights. Therefore, scholars and policymakers within national governments and the UN should consider how the deployment of women may interact with other social, cultural, and political norms and practices to moderate how the public will perceive and react to women peacekeepers.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Public Opinion, Peacekeeping, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, India, and South Africa

93. Youth Inclusion in Transitional Justice Policy in Africa: Youth Contribute to Shaping the Way Forward

Author:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Including youth in the design and implementation of transitional justice is now being recognized as a key priority that has been long neglected. Such inclusion and participation would strengthen the value of transitional justice initiatives for society and make them more responsive to youth priorities and perspectives. This policy brief draws on the voices of youth in four African countries to guide the debate about how youth can be involved in transitional justice policy development and provide recommendations on taking this forward.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Youth, Violence, Participation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa

94. Reparations for Victims of the Marikana Masssacre

Author:: Hugo van der Merwe, Jordi Vives-Gabriel, and Malose Langa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents a summary assessment of the progress made in providing redress for victims of the Marikana Massacre,1 when 34 striking miners were killed by the South African Police Service (SAPS) in 2012 and ten people were killed in the conflict that led up to it. In the ten years since the massacre, there has been meagre progress in addressing its consequences. Direct victims and their relatives have not received full reparations, the community of Marikana remains underdeveloped and deeply divided, and the apartheid legacy of the mining sector in South Africa remains an unresolved wound in the national psyche. An integrated approach is required to address both the systemic injustices and the specific legacies of the Marikana Massacre, while being clear about the specific responsibilities of all the stakeholders. This policy brief spells out key facts about the events, outlines what progress that has been made in the last ten years in seeking truth, justice and reconciliation, and spells out recommendations for state, corporate and civil society actors on the way forward.
Topic:: Torture, Criminal Justice, State Violence, Police, and Reparations
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

95. Harnessing EU-Kenya renewable energy relations for a bright future

Author:: Akash Ramnath and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Unlike many of its neighbours, Kenya is progressing towards universal electrification from 100% renewable sources as set out by the country’s Vision 2030 Agenda. This feat, however, does not mean that there are not areas for improvement of its energy profile, especially around grid resilience, energy access and mitigating fluctuating supply and volatile prices. The EU stands poised to help this strengthening, not only due to the bloc’s leading presence in the Kenyan energy transition, but also because of growing geopolitical competition in Africa. The EU aims to beat its competitors in the field of green technologies. Moreover, as part of the external dimension of the European Green Deal the EU aims to avoid further carbon lock-ins, strengthen the ability of countries like Kenya to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and boost the EU’s international influence and visibility. This policy brief enumerates opportunities and offers recommendations for the evolution of EU-Kenya relations in the field of renewable energy.
Topic:: European Union, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Europe

96. The West’s struggle in Sudan: Standing with the people while being stuck with the coup regime

Author:: Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Three years after the historic ousting of the long-time dictator al-Bashir, Sudan’s revolution continues. The military coup of last October has effectively ended Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy but has fanned the flames of the Sudanese people’s struggle for freedom, peace, and justice. Protesters from Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement continue to risk their lives by taking to the streets demanding the end of military rule and the transfer of power to a civilian government. The international community, however, has spent the last eight months trying to restore a power-sharing government whose very viability had become untenable. Meanwhile, conniving with Islamist elements of the former al-Bashir regime, the coup alliance is cementing its stranglehold over the state. The historic opportunity for genuine democratic transition risks being lost. This policy brief argues that, by holding on to a transition that has ceased to exist, Western governments have helped consolidate the coup. To counter that course Western donor governments are well advised to 1) increase economic and diplomatic pressure on the coup regime, 2) strengthen the civil society that opposes the coup, and 3) safeguard aid against diversion and political manipulation.
Topic:: Democratization, Coup, Revolution, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

97. The Case for Inclusive Agricultural Development

Author:: Benjamin Allen, Jacqueline Ashby, John Coonrod, and Wawira Njiru
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Amid shifts towards inclusive agricultural development, the Center for Global Food and Agriculture offers policy recommendations for further US government action. Reflecting both the development consensus and the challenges of transformational reform, USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced an ambitious new focus on inclusive development for the agency in 2021. Her announcement followed the publication of a draft policy on local capacity development, which provides a framework for shifting overall organizational approaches to development. The policy helps establish an agencywide understanding of what locally led development means and a unified system for building on local strengths to achieve local goals. Nevertheless, there are substantial and legitimate reasons why inclusive development assistance remains elusive. Recent research from the Brookings Institution provides an excellent summary of the legal and regulatory impediments, including budgetary rigidity, risk mitigation, and the limits of local organizational capacity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Food, and International Development
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

98. Women and Peacebuilding in Africa: Some Policy Recommendations

Author:: Anna Chitando
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: There is an increasing acknowledgment of the important role played by women in peacebuilding worldwide. The UN Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1325 calls for the full involvement of women in all efforts towards the maintenance of and support for peace and security.1 Other successive UNSC resolutions linked to the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) framework such as 1820, 1888, 1889, 1960, 2106, 2122, and 2242 have underscored the role of women in peacebuilding. However, Machakanja observes that “women’s participation in peace and security in Africa remains more symbolic than substantive, and their capacity to influence and engage in peace negotiations is often resisted by local cultural norms and patriarchal hierarchies.”2 Although women contribute significantly to peacebuilding in Africa, their efforts are often diminished, or “invisible.” This is predominantly a result of the patriarchal bias which tends to exclude women from political activities and official peace negotiations.3
Topic:: Security, Women, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa

99. How Violent Conflicts Impact Women in Oil-Producing Niger Delta Communities: A Policy Perspective

Author:: Onyinyechukwu Durueke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief focuses on how women are affected by violent conflicts in the oilproducing Niger Delta region of Nigeria, including the coping mechanisms women victims adopt in conflict-affected communities. It draws on the findings of fieldbased research on the experiences of women in the aftermath of the military invasions of Odi1 and Gbaramatu,2 the leadership tussle in Rumuekpe,3 communal/ intra-ethnic conflict in K-Dere and B-Dere,4 communal conflict with a multinational oil corporation in Evwreni,5 and electoral violence in Imiringi. This brief also makes recommendations for addressing gender-based violence in the region.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Women, Violence, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Niger

100. Mitigating Post-Apartheid Xenophobic Violence Through Language

Author:: Chimaobi Onwukwe
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief draws on field-based research on multilingual practices and identity navigation among Nigerian Igbo migrants, their motivations for their language use/choices and how these relate to evading xenophobic violence in South Africa. It also makes recommendations for mitigating the effects of xenophobic violence.
Topic:: Apartheid, Discrimination, Violence, Language, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS