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6552. Short Sales Bans: Shooting the Messenger?
- Author:
- Laurence Copeland
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In response to the recent financial crisis, many governments chose to ban or restrict short sales, hoping to mitigate the impact of the stock market downturn. Stock markets function as a continuous election, held to determine the allocation of resources with buyers voting for and sellers voting against investment in particular stocks. Banning short selling is akin to disenfranchising the "no" voter, thereby creating a distortion in the resource allocation process. Ban-induced price distortions damage the integrity of stock prices among investors and potentially cause stocks to expand beyond what is optimal for the firms and the economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Washington
6553. Pakistan\'s Roller-Coaster Economy: Tax Evasion Stifles Growth
- Author:
- S. Akbar Zaidi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the last sixty years, Pakistan\'s economy has seen severe ups and downs. Once considered a model for other developing nations, Pakistan has been unable to sustain solid growth. Furthermore, a third of its population now lives below the poverty line, and its literacy rate is abysmally low. Pakistan\'s economic instability stems in large part from low government revenue resulting from the elite\'s use of tax evasions, loopholes, and exemptions. Fewer than three million of Pakistan\'s 175 million citizens pay any income taxes, and the country\'s tax-to-GDP ratio is only 9 percent. Tax evasion means fewer resources are available for essential social services. Pakistan spends too much on defense and too little on development: It has spent twice as much on defense during peacetime as it has on education and health combined. The government knows how to increase its revenue through tax reform, but the rich and powerful have resisted such measures for fear of lowering their own incomes. Without sufficient revenue the government will continue to be burdened with an unsustainable debt. It needs to end tax exemptions for the wealthy and develop broader, long-term economic plans for sustain able growth. In the past, the United States and other Western nations have come to Pakistan\'s rescue by paying off debts and funding development initiatives. Pakistan\'s elite has no reason to support reform as long as these bailouts come with no conditions attached.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
6554. Improving the Governance of the Food Aid Convention: Which Way Forward?
- Author:
- Jennifer Clapp and C. Stuart Clark
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Informal talks began in mid-2010 on renegotiating the FAC with a view to adopting a new agreement by June 2011. The FAC is an international agreement that sets out the rules and minimum commitments for member countries which donate international food aid to feed hungry people in developing countries. The existing Convention is dated and requires revision on a number of fronts (Clay 2010; Hoddinott, Cohen and Barrett 2008; Barrett and Maxwell 2006), particularly in the current context of high food insecurity and volatile world food markets (FAO 2009a; FAO 2010). The effectiveness of the FAC as a mechanism to provide appropriate and predictable minimum levels of food aid to those in need has been diminishing to the point of virtual invisibility in the midst of the recent food price crisis — a clear illustration of its fading legitimacy.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Food
6555. The Environment and Corporate Governance in Zimbabwe
- Author:
- Hany Besada and arolina Werner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Formerly one of Africa's most promising economies, Zimbabwe has begun a process of economic reconstruction after decades of political turmoil and economic mismanagement. The advent of a national unity government in February 2009 launched a new but still tentative era of political stability. The government has a daunting political and economic agenda. Top priorities include restoring the rule of law, demonstrating fiscal responsibility, and putting in place macroeconomic and structural reforms to win the confidence of domestic and international investors.
- Topic:
- Economics and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
6556. Reaching for Justice: The participation of victims at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia
- Author:
- Johanna Herman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
- Abstract:
- The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) is the first international or internationalised tribunal to include the participation of victims as Civil Parties during the trial. There was a steep learning curve regarding management of victims' involvement in the first trial. There was initially insufficient funding allocated to support victims' participation, with late establishment and understaffing of victim support at the ECCC. Cambodian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have proved instrumental in ensuring the submission of Civil Party applications, legal representation and other forms of support for Civil Parties throughout the process and played a pivotal role in outreach activities. Donors should consider financing NGO and civil society activities that support victim participation, in order to maximise the impact of the significant expenditures they are often allocating to the ECCC. The challenges and successes of the first trial provide lessons not only for future ECCC cases but also for other courts concerning the participation of victims such as the International Criminal Court.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia and Southeast Asia
6557. The Civil Society-Military Relationship in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Lisa Schirch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The intense challenge of coordinating government civilians with military actors in the International Security Assistance Forces' Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan has inhibited development of military relationships with civil society. The counterinsurgency strategy of “shape, clear, hold, build” invites civil society organizations (CSOs) to play key roles in the final “build” stage at the operational level. Yet many CSOs resist “coordination” in a mission and strategy different from their own. CSOs seek greater policy dialogue and “communication” with high-level ISAF decision makers, particularly during planning stages. An ongoing, high-level forum for civil society-military policy dialogue could help address tensions, provide a mechanism for CSOs to share their conflict assessments, and explore areas for possible collaboration such as in security sector reform.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Indonesia
6558. The ICJ's Advisory Opinion on Kosovo
- Author:
- Richard Caplan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On July 22, 2010, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued its advisory opinion on Kosovo's declaration of independence of February 17, 2008, observing that the declaration was not in violation of international law. The Court's opinion may facilitate further recognitions of Kosovo but thus far there has been no significant increase in the number of countries extending recognition. Although the Court's opinion was drafted with the specific and unique circumstances of the Kosovo case in mind, it has been followed with interest by separatist parties engaged in contested territorial struggles elsewhere around the world. Separatists are likely also to be watching with interest the next steps that may be taken with regard to Kosovo in the wake of the ICJ's advisory opinion, especially any boundary adjustments that may be proposed and agreed upon between the Serbian and Kosovar governments.
- Topic:
- International Law and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo and Balkans
6559. Cautious Optimism for Peace in Colombia
- Author:
- Virginia M. Bouvier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The new Colombian administration that took office in early August faces a unique set of peacemaking challenges and opportunities related to the country's internal armed conflict. Following a spate of tensions with neighboring countries regarding the presence of illegal armed groups along Colombia's border areas, newly-inaugurated President Juan Manuel Santos moved quickly to create new mechanisms with his neighbors to ensure that contentious regional issues are addressed before they reach the boiling point. In a surprising video released just before the president-elect was inaugurated, the top leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces-People's Army (FARC-EP), called on Santos to enter a dialogue without preconditions, thereby opening a new window of opportunities to pursue peace. President Santos responded that “the door to dialogue is not locked,” insisting however that the guerrillas must lay down their weapons and meet a series of other pre-conditions before talks could occur. Former mediators differ over whether such preconditions will pose an obstacle to talks. In the final days of August, Brazil and Ecuador rejected a FARC-EP request for meeting with the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to discuss a political solution to Colombia's conflict. UNASUR leaders said they would not engage in mediating the conflict in the absence of an express invitation from the Colombian government. The Colombian government has rejected UNASUR mediation and underscored its preference to negotiate directly with the FARC-EP once the latter meets the government's preconditions. Concrete good faith efforts—both public and private—will be required from the government and the guerrillas to build confidence, address the legacy of distrust created by decades of violence and set the stage for future talks.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, and Latin America
6560. Afghanistan: Conditions-Based Redeployment
- Author:
- William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama's policy of a conditions-based redeployment in Afghanistan starting in July 2011 leaves him a lot of flexibility. The administration will likely decide to maintain the troop numbers in Afghanistan near the surge level next year, pending another review.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
6561. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Matt Waldman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India
6562. Iran's Subsidies Conundrum
- Author:
- Semira Nikou
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iran has subsidized petroleum products, basic foodstuffs, medical goods and utilities since 1980, first to manage hardships during the eight-year war with Iraq, and then to prevent political and economic challenges after the war. Since the 1990s, three presidents have tried to cut back subsidies that are now estimated to cost Iran between $70 billion and $100 billion annually. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won parliamentary approval for a controversial plan to phase out subsides by 2015. Under the plan, universal price controls are to be replaced with small cash payments to families and direct support of industries. Some economists are concerned that lifting price controls will trigger dramatic rises in inflation and unemployment. The cutbacks come at a time the government already faces serious economic troubles and tougher international sanctions. For the public, the change is likely to produce the most economic disruption since the revolution. Economic reforms have triggered unrest in the past. If reform succeeds, however, the program could help reduce waste, shrink state outlays and enhance efficiency and productivity.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
6563. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change
- Author:
- Tara Nesvaderani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
6564. Many Shuras Do Not a Government Make: International Community Engagement with Local Councils in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Noah Coburn and Shahmahmood Miakhel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The need to engage local Afghan leaders and support community decision making has recently been promoted as a key element of both development and counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan. The resulting proliferation of community councils—commonly called shuras or jirgas— sponsored by different actors within the Afghan government and international community has decreased the effectiveness of local governance and rule of law in many places. Traditional Afghan dispute resolution and governance bodies are most effective when they are formed by local residents and genuinely reflect the interests of the community. Their legitimacy decreases if international or government sponsors create shuras or jirgas to promote their own interests. This paradox creates a dilemma for programs designed to foster good governance: how to promote community self-rule that reflects traditional values and mechanisms and that develop locally, while adhering to rigid counterinsurgency and development timelines and strategies. These so-called 'traditional' political structures have an important place in local governance in Afghanistan, but the international community should not assume that such bodies fairly represent their respective communities. Rather, sound understanding of local dynamics and in-depth consultation with local government actors and community leaders are necessary to help ensure that such bodies are represented and thus, legitimate within the community. A more coherent, sustainable vision of long-term local governance and coordinated strategies between the Afghan government and international forces is necessary to bring both stability and development to Afghanistan. In particular, this Peace Brief supports the attempts to create a coherent long-term goal of local governance based on legitimate local actors, most likely selected through elections.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
6565. Misdirected Development a Threat to Security – Analysis of Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Manpavan Joth Kaur and Lina Gong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Under-performance on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and conflicts are connected such that the former can catalyse or prolong the latter. This Insight looks at Southeast Asia, where intrastate conflicts and violence have plagued countries for years. Three socially vulnerable groups experiencing inequality in access to outcomes of projects on the MDGs are identified - women and youth in rural areas and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The propensity for such inequality to incite and prolong conflict is examined.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
6566. Dependency and Complacency in the Energy Sector: Implications for Human Security
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The need for higher levels of economic growth and development – in both developing and developed countries – has only served to increase the world's appetite for energy. The persistent dependence on traditional sources of energy in the form of fossil fuels such as oil and coal relegates the plan to develop renewable sources of energy to a long-term goal despite the desire for sustainable development and a low-carbon economy. Such dependency on these energy sources has sometimes come with a degree of complacency. Complacency sets in when profit-driven firms fail to take into account the socioeconomic and environmental implications of the development of traditional energy sources; these could indirectly affect production and operational processes as well as the firms' overall image. This complacency is reflected in ineffective management which can and has posed threats to human security.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6567. New Crisis, Old Demons in Lebanon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Le Liban traverse, à nouveau, une zone de graves dangers. La crise qu'il subit depuis l'assassinat en 2005 de l'an- cien premier ministre Rafic Hariri, connaît en effet une nouvelle mutation particulièrement dangereuse, à mesure que les perspectives de mises en accusation décidées par le tribunal international chargé d'enquêter sur ce meurtre se font plus précises. L'implication attendue de membres du Hizbollah a replongé la scène politique dans une lutte féroce, où se jouent tout à la fois les relations intercommu- nautaires, la légitimité de la résistance que ce mouvement incarne, la crédibilité du tribunal, la survie de l'actuel gouvernement d'unité nationale, la solidité du récent rap- prochement syro-saoudien et, plus généralement, la stabi- lité bien fragile du pays. Le soutien international offert au tribunal, son rejet catégorique par le Hizbollah, et la diffi- culté qu'il y a pour Saad Hariri, premier ministre et fils de Rafic, à le désavouer risque de conduire rapidement à une impasse, dont les effets se re porteront rapidement au ni- veau de la rue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Arabia
6568. The Making of a Seoul Development: Consensus The essential development agenda for the G20
- Author:
- Jasmine Burnley and Elizabeth Stuart
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- When the G20 meets in Seoul in November 2010, it has a big choice to make. It can either retreat into a narrow focus on its own interests, or it can prove it is capable of genuine global leadership in the face of the interlinked economic, food, and climate change crises. The G20 must adopt a Seoul 'development consensus' that confronts the challenges of the 21st century: reducing inequality and tackling global poverty through sustainable, equitable growth that gives poor women and men, and their governments, the tools they need to overcome poverty.
- Topic:
- Development, Poverty, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, and South Korea
6569. Righting Two Wrongs: Making a new Global Climate Fund work for poor people
- Author:
- Tracy Carty
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Climate-related shocks are negatively affecting the lives of millions of poor women and men with increasing frequency and severity. The non- binding pledges made in Copenhagen put the world on track for a catastrophic temperature rise of 3-4°C. If developed countries fail to set much more ambitious emissions targets, the cost of damages will increase dramatically. There is an urgent need to set up a proper system of finance for adaptation to help developing countries avoid the worst impacts.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Climate Change, and Development
6570. Agricultural challenges and opportunities for Haiti's reconstruction
- Author:
- Marc Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The massive earthquake that struck Haiti on 12 January 2010 devastated rural areas as well as urban, destroying crops, farm buildings, equipment, and infrastructure. Indirect effects touched almost every corner of the nation, as 600,000 people migrated to the countryside, increasing pressure on already stretched food and fuel resources. Internal displacement worsened food insecurity, which affected six out of ten people even before the disaster.
- Topic:
- Development, Disaster Relief, Poverty, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
6571. How to Change the EU Treaties: An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon
- Author:
- Peadar ó Broin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Less than a year has passed since the Lisbon Treaty became part of EU law, thereby bringing to an end almost a decade of intergovernmental wrangling over EU institutional reform. Yet despite its protracted ratification process and pledges from national administrations and EU authorities that the Lisbon Treaty had closed the issue of treaty reform for the foreseeable future, a number of modifications to the EU treaties are currently in the pipeline. One such proposal, relating to the number of seats in the European Parliament, has already left the drawing board and is presently pending national ratification. But perhaps most significant are those proposals that could amount to major treaty reform in areas such as the Franco-German Declaration of Deauville, which proposes significant changes in the area of economic and monetary union and, possibly also institutional reform.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6572. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon Treaty Revision(s)
- Author:
- Piotr Maciej Kaczyński and Peadar ó Broin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- It has only been one year since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and already there is a stack of pending issues requiring primary law change in the EU. The Franco-German Deauville Declaration of 18 October 2010 is probably the most politically prominent of them all, yet it is not the first, nor will it be the last in a long, incremental process of constant treaty revision similar to the national process of amending national constitutions. All of these proposals have one feature in common: none of them is an overarching treaty change and each one is designed in such a way that amends only one element of the system. This, in theory, should avoid the need to submit the change to public referenda in the EU as part of the ratification process.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements and Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Lisbon
6573. What reforms for the credit rating industry? A European perspective
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Credit rating agencies (CRAs) continue to find themselves in the eye of the storm. Despite having singled out the industry early on in the financial crisis as needing more regulation, policy-makers seem not to be reassured by the measures that have been adopted in the meantime, and want to go further. Faced with a rapid downgrading in ratings in the context of the sovereign debt crisis, European Commissioner Michel Barnier raised the possibility last May of creating a new EU-level rating agency that would specialise in sovereign debt.
- Topic:
- Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6574. What kind of governance for the eurozone?
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The survival of the eurozone hinges on the capacity of its leaders to improve its governance. This has become very clear since the eruption of the government debt crisis in the eurozone in 2009, which can be said to result from a failure of economic governance. In order to answer the question of how the economic governance of the eurozone should be reformed, we should first make a diagnosis of the crisis in which the eurozone has been mired since 2009.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6575. Fiscal Policy Coordination and Competitiveness Surveillance: What solutions to what problems?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In June 2010, both the European Commission and the European Central Bank published documents containing ideas for enhancing European economic governance. Both proposals stress the need for stronger surveillance on a country-by-country basis and the effective enforcement of surveillance through incentives and a wider spectrum of sanctions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6576. The Responsibility to Protect and Kenya: Past Successes and Current Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- The passing of the 4 August constitutional referendum in Kenya is a promising sign in the broader context of efforts to prevent atrocities and uphold the responsibility to protect (R2P). The peaceful referendum sharply contrasts with the wave of violence that erupted in the wake of the disputed December 2007 presidential election, when within hours of the announcement of the results violence broke out. Less than two months later 1,133 Kenyans had been murdered, unknown numbers raped, and over 500,000 forcibly driven from their homes. The perpetrators included individuals, militias and the police with victims often targeted on the basis of their ethnicity and corresponding perceived support for a particular presidential candidate.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
6577. Upholding the Responsibility to Protect in Burma/Myanmar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- The situation in Burma/Myanmar remains grave. With elections scheduled for 7 November 2010 international attention on the country has increased. Such attention, and any policy action taken, must focus not only on the goal of democratic transition, and concerns about the regimes nuclear collaboration with North Korea, but also on the plight of Burma's ethnic minorities who continue to suffer atrocities at the hands of the government. These atrocities may rise to the level of crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing – crimes states committed themselves to protect populations from at the 2005 World Summit, as described in the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect policy brief dated 4 March 2010, “Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar.”
- Topic:
- Democratization, Genocide, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, Burma, and Myanmar
6578. Examining Pandemic Responses in Asia
- Author:
- Li Hongyan and Ong Suan Ee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent pandemic disease outbreaks which affected many Asian countries underscore the need for appropriate pandemic responses to be developed in order to contain and mitigate the spread of pandemics that emerge in the future. Through an examination of the different responses to SARS and H1N1 in the region, and the effects of those efforts, this NTS Insight seeks to highlight issues which should be considered when developing pandemic response programmes.
- Topic:
- Health, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Asia
6579. Atrocities in Nigeria's Plateau State and the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- On 7 March 2010, between 1 and 3 am, groups of armed men launched simultaneous attacks on the villages of Dogo Nahauwa, Zot, and Ratsat, in Du District of Jos South Local Government Area, Plateau state, Nigeria. Driven from their homes by the sound of gunfire, villagers were maimed and killed by machete wielding men who also set homes on fire, displacing the survivors.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Human Rights, and Torture
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
6580. Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- The Burmese junta, its armed forces known as the “Tatmadaw,” and other armed groups under government control are committing gross human rights violations against ethnic and religious minorities. Extrajudicial killings, torture, and forced labor are prevalent; rape and sexual abuse by the Tatmadaw are rampant; and from August 2008 through July 2009 alone, 75,000 civilians in the east, where armed conflict is ongoing, were forcibly displaced. The Tatmadaw shows a complete disregard for the principle of distinction, intentionally targeting civilians with impunity.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar
6581. The International Response to 28 September 2009 Massacre in Guinea and the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- On 28 September 2009, government forces opened fire on opposition supporters peacefully protesting in a stadium in Conakry, Guinea. Demonstrators had gathered to contest junta leader Captain Dadis Camara's reported intention to run in the January 2010 elections, and break his promise to cede power to civilian rule. Over 150 civilians were killed in attacks that Human Rights Watch reports were premeditated and that the United Nations Commission of Inquiry concluded amounted to crimes against humanity. Over 1,200 people were injured, rape and sexual violence was widespread, and unknown numbers of protestors and political opponents were detained.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Crime, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United Nations
6582. Will the EU get a real president? The EU's political system as another example of semi-presidentialism in Europe
- Author:
- Teija Tiilikainen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- At first glance the EU's political system doesn't seem to correspond to any contemporary type of regime. There is a directly elected European Parliament (EP), but the way of constructing relations of power and accountability between the parliament and the three bodies with executive powers, the Commission, the European Council or the Council, complicates the picture. The Commission's accountability to the European Parliament has been confirmed in the founding treaties ever since their conclusion. But what is the value of such a rule when there seems to be a much more powerful executive emerging beyond the reach of any EU-level accountability, namely the European Council?
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6583. Can Asia Learn from Brazil's Agricultural Success?
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world's major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil's success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of selfsufficiency in the region.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Brazil, and Latin America
6584. Stalemate in Southern Thailand
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The deadly conflict in Thailand's predominantly Malay Muslim South is at a stalemate. Although military operations might have contributed to the reduction in violence, the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made little effort to tackle the political grievances that drive the insurgency. A limited unilateral suspension of hostilities offered by rebels has met no significant response. Draconian laws that grant security forces sweeping powers remain imposed while justice for serious cases of past abuse remains unaddressed and torture of suspects continues. As bloody anti-government protests in Bangkok distracted the nation in early 2010, the death toll in the six-year-long insurgency steadily climbed. The conflict in the Deep South remains on the margins of Thai politics and unresolved. A paradigm shift is needed to acknowledge that assimilation of Malay Muslims has failed and that recognition of their distinct ethno-religious identity is essential. Dialogue with insurgents and reform of governance structures remain two missing components of a comprehensive political solution.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
6585. China-Japan Security Relations
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The recent clash between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese coast guard in the East China Sea demonstrates continuing potential for conflict between China and Japan over territory and maritime resources, one that could affect the United States. China's stronger navy and air force in and over the waters east and south of the country's coast is one dimension of that country's growing power. But the deployment of these assets encroaches on the traditional area of operations of Japan's navy and air force - and a clash between Chinese and Japanese ships and planes cannot be ruled out.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, and Asia
6586. The Drag on India's Military Growth
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- India's remarkable economic growth and newfound access to arms from abroad have raised the prospect of a major rearmament of the country. But without several policy and organizational changes, India's efforts to modernize its armed forces will not alter the country's ability to deal with critical security threats. Our research suggests that India's military modernization needs a transparent, legitimate and efficient procurement process. Further, a chief of defense staff could reconcile the competing priorities across the three military services. Finally, India's defense research agencies need to be subjected to greater oversight.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Development
- Political Geography:
- India
6587. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap
- Author:
- Thomas de Waal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
6588. South-east European Surplus Arms: State Policies and Practices,
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Ensuring the physical security and proper management of national inventories and surplus stocks is key to minimizing potential hazardous effects on populations and environments surrounding depots.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Environment, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Europe
6589. Under Pressure: Social violence over land and water in Yemen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- In February 2007 at least a dozen people, including an 11-year-old boy, were killed during a land dispute between tribesmen from al-Baydha and Sanhan that erupted in a southern suburb of the Yemeni capital, Sana'a. A sheikh from Sanhan kidnapped the son of a sheikh from al-Baydha to pressure him into renouncing ownership of a large plot of land. The youth reportedly fought back, injuring his kidnapper, and was then killed. The boy's family rejected mediation and a gun battle erupted, with further killings apparently occurring when injured fighters were taken to hospital. Fighting was only quelled when the government sent tanks to separate the parties.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Natural Resources, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries
6590. Hello Missile Defence–Goodbye Nuclear Sharing?
- Author:
- Trine Flockhart
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- It appears likely that NATO's new strategic concept, although largely only confirming the status quo on nuclear policy, will also set out the bold decision to adopt a Ballistic Missile Defence System.Through this combination the new strategic concept looks set to herald radical change in long cherished principles about nuclear sharing and to directly address sensitive issues of Alliance cohesion and deterrence posture.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
6591. Democracy and the Chain of Command: A New Governance of Africa's Security Sector
- Author:
- Dominique Djindjéré
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Africa's senior defense and security officials must adopt higher standards of leadership to reshape Africa's security forces into professional bodies capable of handling contemporary security threats and earning the respect of civilian populations. Politicians' adherence to constitutional limits on power will avoid placing military officers in the untenable position of choosing between respecting civilian authority and upholding democracy. Security cooperation and assistance from international partners should favor African states with a track record of responsible governance within the security sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
6592. Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa
- Author:
- Jon Temin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent—but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
6593. Kosovo: The Next Steps
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Kosovo should not be allowed to stagnate as a "frozen conflict." There are well-established principles that can provide a basis for moving forward. Talks between Belgrade and Pristina on a framework for managing their relationship on practical issues are both possible and necessary, even if they do not happen right away. The time available should be used for careful preparations, especially by Pristina. As Belgrade and Moscow present serious challenges, a joint EU/U.S. effort has the best prospects for success to prevent a "frozen conflict."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Moscow, and Balkans
6594. Zimbabwe: Power-Sharing Deal Under Stress
- Author:
- Michael Bratton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Zimbabwe's coalition government is increasingly dysfunctional, mainly due to a defeated incumbent ruler's unwillingness to surrender real executive authority to a popular opposition. The latest dispute over the president's unilateral exercise of appointment powers threatens to escalate into a constitutional crisis that seems likely to be resolved only through fresh elections. International actors can help to bring Zimbabwe's transition to a peaceful and democratic conclusion by guaranteeing power sharing, supervising elections, and maintaining targeted sanctions.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
6595. When Is International Peacemaking Illegal? Implications of the 2010 Supreme Court Decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project
- Author:
- Stephanie Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The June 21st Supreme Court decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project affirmed the constitutionality of the material support statue which makes it illegal for U.S. citizens and organizations to provide material support, including expert advice or assistance, service or personnel, to designated terrorist organizations regardless of whether the support is intended to promote nonviolence and peace. The material support law and the process of listing terrorist groups provides the U.S. government with an enhanced legal structure to arrest alleged terrorists and prevent terrorist acts. However, it is unclear that the process is effective in practice or that enhancing the government's legal power to prevent acts of terrorism outweighs the unintentional consequences of prohibiting nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from working on the front lines of conflict zones to promote conflict resolution. Looking to the future, NGOs can work with the State Department and Congress to find ways to allow peacebuilding and humanitarian organizations to continue their operations legally, while also not threatening national security.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- United States
6596. Defying Expectations: Polio Vaccination Programs Amid Political and Armed Conflict
- Author:
- Leonard S. Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Defying expectations, successful polio vaccination campaigns have taken place in well over two dozen armed conflicts, and continue today. Polio vaccination campaigns amid war have often succeeded in gaining the cooperation of anti-government forces such as Sendero Luminoso in Peru, multiple rebel groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Diplomatic means have also been employed to overcome severe political obstacles to such campaigns, even when the campaigns have become a flashpoint in places of political turmoil. Such campaigns face many challenges because vaccinators need to reach all villages without threats to their own lives or the programs' implementation. They require security for safe passage for immunizations and sometimes temporary cease-fires. The many successes of vaccination campaigns can be attributed to the programs' exclusive focus on the immunization needs of children; the use of interlocutors who are credible because they demonstrate neutrality; transparent discussions with opposition groups about the reasons for the campaigns; a role for opposition groups in facilitating the campaigns; limits on the number of days vaccinations take place; and the absence of any strategic or political goals for the effort beyond polio eradication.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Taliban, and Peru
6597. MINURCAT Withdrawal: The Risks to Civilian Protection and Humanitarian Assistance in Eastern Chad
- Author:
- Erin A. Weir
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Chad hosts over 249,000 refugees from the Darfur conflict and 168,000 internally displaced persons who were relocated after instability caused by Chadian rebel groups. The U.N. Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad has been reduced to 1,900 as of October 15, 2010. It will withdraw completely by December 31, 2010. There are concerns about the capacity of the Chadian security forces to adequately protect the population.The government of Chad and the international community must work to ensure the security of the population and humanitarian workers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United Nations
6598. Stabilizing Chad: Security, Governance and Development Challenges
- Author:
- Dorina Bekoe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On May 20, 2010, USIP and the International Peace Institute brought together some of Chad's national, regional and international stakeholders to discuss Chad's democratization, the regional security dynamics and the management of the oil sector.Electoral reform, as called for in Chad's 2007 "August 13 Political Agreement," has been poorly implemented, endangering the credibility of the upcoming February legislative elections. Improvements in regional security prompted the Chadian government to request the departure of the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT), which was charged with securing and providing humanitarian relief along the Chad-Central African Republic border. However, many question if Chadian forces can fill the security gap. Oil exports have significantly increased Chad's budget, with most of these gains being invested in the military. The improved regional security provides an opportunity to invest in sectors such as education, health care, and development, which have been neglected.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa
6599. Transparency is the Key to Legitimate Afghan Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Scott Worden
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On September 18, Afghanistan held its second parliamentary elections since the fall of the Taliban. Like last year's vote, these elections were marked by high levels of violence, low turnout and widespread reports of fraud.Despite the challenges, however, Afghans across the country defied Taliban threats and overcame problems with the electoral administration to signal their support for the democratic process. Participation appeared higher among the youth demographic, which is a promising sign for the future of democratic processes in Afghanistan. It is still too early to tell whether the quality of the elections was better than the flawed 2009 process, but the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has improved its procedures and transparency both before and after the elections, and has so far helped to restore the credibility of the institution as a neutral administrator of the electoral process. Meanwhile, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is again under-resourced, has had little time to establish and train the Provincial Electoral Complaints Commissions (PECCs) that will be adjudicating the 4,200 election day complaints, and has yet to make public its decisions regarding the campaign or polling complaints.The ultimate success of the 2010 elections depends less on the level of fraud that was committed on election day-which was bound to be high-and more on the way in which the fraud is handled by the IEC and ECC. If they are transparent and honest about the problems, and take responsible corrective action, then the elections can be considered a partial success despite its flaws.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
6600. Persistent Challenges to Long-Term Peace in Côte d'Ivoire
- Author:
- Dorina A. Bekoe and Andrea Bartoli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The announcement that 429,000 fraudulent or possibly foreign names were on the voters registry halted the preparations for already delayed 2009 presidential election and revived the divisive discussion of citizenship and identity in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivoirité) The stalled electoral process highlighted unresolved issues such as the failed demobilization and disarmament processes and the marginalization of civil society from the implementation of the 2007 Ouagadougou Peace Agreement. In April 2010, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Community of Sant'Egidio and George Mason University's Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution brought key leaders of Ivorian civil society and the religious community to Washington, D.C. to develop an approach for resolving the present political impasse and to actively participate in the peace process. The April meeting resulted in the Washington Appeal, which urges Ivoirians to tolerate ethnic and political diversity, reduce the tensions around elections, identify longstanding grievances, and expand the role of civil society in the peace process.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa