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6501. Peace within a Year? Israeli-Palestinian Direct Talks Resume

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Friday, August 20, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the resumption of direct peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, to be launched in Washington next week. On September 1, President Obama will welcome Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas, as well as Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah. Direct talks between Netanyahu and Abbas are scheduled to begin the next day, with the objective of reaching agreement on the permanent-status issues of borders, security, Jerusalem, and refugees within a year. The meeting will mark the first time that Israeli and Palestinian leaders have discussed these issues directly during the Obama administration.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Egypt

6502. Mahmoud Abbas Visits Washington: Key Quotes

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas conducted an unprecedented sequence of three public events during his visit to Washington last week, during which he articulated his positions on a range of issues. The events included an on-the-record dinner hosted by philanthropist Daniel Abraham, a television appearance with PBS host Charlie Rose, and a speech at the Brookings Institution.
Topic:
Politics and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Palestine

6503. Netanyahu Comes to Washington: Assessing U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:
Stephen Hadley and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The two-state solution is widely accepted as the ultimate outcome of any Middle East peace process. Despite this consensus, progress toward a solution has slowed to a near halt. The difficulty Israel's right wing coalition faces in making concessions on key issues has proven a major obstacle to negotiations, while the split between a Palestinian Authority-controlled West Bank and Hamas in Gaza further diminishes the probability of reaching a solution in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

6504. President Obama's Cairo Speech: A First-Year Scorecard

Author:
J. Scott Carpenter and Dina Guirguis
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although likely eclipsed in the media by recent Israeli naval action against blockade runners, the first anniversary of President Obama's much-quoted address in Cairo occurs on June 4. In his remarks, described as a "new beginning," he identified seven issues at the heart of tensions between the United States and the world's 1.2 billion Muslims: the need to confront violent extremism, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran's drive to obtain nuclear weapons, democracy, religious freedom, women's rights, and economic development. For each issue, the president indicated where American action was required. On violent extremism, for instance, he highlighted his decision to close the Guantanamo Bay detention center within the year. Given that two issues -- the Arab-Israeli peace process and Iranian nuclear issue -- have garnered the lion's share of attention over the past year, it is timely and useful to assess progress on the other five.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Israel, and Egypt

6505. The Obama-Netanyahu Meeting: Assessment and Implications

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With smiles, compliments, and a strong dose of hospitality, President Obama did his best to provide a dramatically improved backdrop for U.S.-Israeli relations during Binyamin Netanyahu's July 6 visit to the White House, compared to the climate that greeted the Israeli prime minister upon his strained April visit. This included strikingly specific commitments on key issues important to Israeli security. Netanyahu, in turn, responded with generous and deferential praise for U.S. leadership on the broad array of Middle East policy issues. Given the near-term political and policy imperatives of both leaders, the result was a meeting doomed to succeed. Lurking behind the warmth and banter, however, remain tactical obstacles on how to proceed in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations as well as strategic uncertainty about how each side views the other's regional priorities.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

6506. One Year after a Rigged Election: Iran's Introverted Politics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although the United Nations Security Council has now voted for new sanctions against Tehran, the Iranian regime and opposition -- preoccupied this week with the anniversary of last year's fraudulent presidential election -- seem more concerned about domestic political struggles. To outsiders, it is an often-confusing contest, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continuing to support President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad while leaders of the opposition Green Movement choose their battles carefully.
Topic:
Politics and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran

6507. Major U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal to Bolster Riyadh against Iran

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day, the Department of Defense will provide informal notification of the U.S. intention to sell up to $60 billion in military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The likely deal is part of a U.S. commitment predating the Obama administration to strengthen regional allies in the face of a growing threat from Iran. For the Saudis, the transaction represents a clear return to considering the United States as its principal arms supplier, a position the Americans risked losing to France as recently as 2006.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

6508. Reassessing U.S. Military Assistance to Lebanon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since 2005, Washington has obligated more than $700 million in military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the aftermath of the LAF's August 3 cross-border shooting of two Israeli officers, one fatal, this funding has come under increasing scrutiny. Not coincidentally, the shooting followed a series of setbacks for Washington's allies in Beirut, which in turn fundamentally altered the conditions that had spurred the 2005 spike in U.S. funding. It is unclear how this new dynamic is affecting the military, but many infer from the shooting that the LAF is shifting away from neutrality and toward Hizballah. More broadly, the incident has resurrected questions as to whether Washington's main policy objective for the LAF --establishing state sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory -- is ultimately achievable.
Political Geography:
United States and Lebanon

6509. U.S. Policy on Hizballah: The Question of Engagement

Author:
Ash Jain
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Four years ago this week, Israel launched a military campaign in Lebanon in retaliation for a brazen Hizballah attack on its soldiers. The goal, according to an Israeli official, was "to put Hizballah out of business." But neither war nor subsequent U.S. diplomatic efforts aimed at weakening the group have succeeded, and some in the Obama administration now appear to view direct engagement as an option worth exploring. Reaching out to Hizballah, however, at a time when it is politically and military emboldened, would be an exercise in futility that could prove counterproductive.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Lebanon

6510. Three Critical Weeks in the Middle East: Insights into U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
It is important to recall that the Gaza incident had the unintended consequence of wiping from the headlines much discussion about the U.S. decision to accede to the final resolution of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference. Indeed, if Gaza had not occurred, there would be much more intense focus on how the decision to acquiesce in a deeply flawed NPT document gave clarity to the administration's priorities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

6511. Yemen's Forever War: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Author:
Christopher Boucek
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is not the biggest problem -- or even the biggest security challenge -- facing the Yemeni government, the United States and much of the international community still place it above other issues. Successful counterterrorism is directly linked to state stability. If Yemen becomes a failed state within the next few decades, U.S. counterterrorism objectives would be decisively undermined. The challenge for U.S. policy is finding a way to bolster the struggle against AQAP without exacerbating other aspects of Yemen's overlapping security, economic, and political crises.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries

6512. Pakistan: The Worsening IDP Crisis

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The monsoon floods in Pakistan have caused massive de- struction and turned a displacement crisis in the insecure western borderlands into a national disaster of mammoth proportions. When the floods hit, almost all those displaced from Malakand had returned hom e and were struggling to rebuild lives in a region where much of the infrastructure had been destroyed in fighting; 1.4 million more displaced from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. The disaster would have proved challenging under any circum- stance. The fragile civilian government, already tackling an insurgency, and its institutions, neglected during nine years of military rule, lack the capacity and the means to provide sufficient food, shelter, health and sanitation without international assistance. The Pakistan govern- ment and international actors should ensure those in the flood-devastated conflict zones are urgently granted the assistance they need to surv ive and to rebuild lives and livelihoods. If military objectives dictate rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts, a population exhausted by con- flict could become a soft target for militants, making sta- bility in the northwest even more elusive.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

6513. Mining for facts: PacRim Cayman LLC v. El Salvador

Author:
Alexandre de Gramont
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In his recent article, “Thinking twice about a gold rush: Pacific Rim v. El Salvador” (Columbia FDI Perspectives, No. 23, May 24, 2010), Professor Gus Van Harten uses the PacRim v. El Salvador arbitration, pending at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), as the basis for asserting a number of criticisms against the overall system of arbitration under investment treaties.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Latin America

6514. Will China relocate its labor-intensive factories to Africa, flying-geese style?

Author:
Terutomo Ozawa and Christian Bellak
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
China has developed increasingly close economic relations with Africa in its quest for oil and minerals through investment and aid. The World Ban k recently called upon China to transplant labor-intensive factories onto the continent. A question arises as to whether such an industrial relocation will be done in such a fashion to jump-start local economic development—as previously seen across East Asia and as described in the flying-geese (FG) paradigm of FD.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and China

6515. Political risk insurance and bilateral investment treaties: a view from below

Author:
Lauge Skovgaard Poulsen
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Many of the risks covered by bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are also covered by political risk insurance (PRI). Although there are important differences between PRI and BITs, both in terms of coverage and underlying purpose, the considerable overlap between the two instruments suggest that PRI providers should take BITs into account when assessing the risk of investment projects. But while the relationship between BITs and PRI has often been alleged to be considerable, in practice there is practically no publicly available evidence to sustain this assumption. This Perspective reviews evidence from a recent survey of officials in private and public (or mixed private/public) PRI providers.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations

6516. FDI incentives pay — politically

Author:
Nathan M. Jensen and Edmund J. Malesky
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Despite broad skepticism about the benefits of globalization, the majority of U.S. states have offered lucrative tax incentives to attract investment. The size of these incentives is generally considered too large to be welfare enhancing, and many economists are skeptical of the effectiveness of these policies. Yet despite the mounting evidence to the contrary, the incentives offered by U.S. states (and foreign countries) continue and have actually increased in their generosity over time.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

6517. The response to the global crisis and investment protection: evidence

Author:
Kathryn Gordon and Joachim Pohl
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In March 2009, Columbia FDI Perspectives carried an early analysis of investment policies in response to the financial crisis that began in early 2008. At that time, the authors, Anne van Aaken and Jürgen Kuntz, found “clear evidence of widespread discrimination directed at foreign actors” in the emergency response to the crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Colombia

6518. Foreign direct investment and U.S. national security: CFIUS under the Obama Administration

Author:
Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
There was considerable public scrutiny of the Obama Administration's performance in its inaugural year, but comparatively little focus on one of the Administration's key processes governing the flow of investment into the United States — namely, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Yet, this is a frequent question we receive from foreign investors -- has the change in the administration affected CFIUS?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

6519. Thinking twice about a gold rush: Pacific Rim v El Salvador

Author:
Gus Van Harten
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Whether it concerns oil drilling or gold mining, sometimes a government, facing new circumstances, must change its mind.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America

6520. How BRIC MNEs deal with international political risk

Author:
Premila Nazareth Satyanand
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Hitherto, political risk has worried developed country multinational enterprises (MNEs) investing in developing country markets. But as more emerging market firms invest overseas, they too must grapple with this subject. World Investment and Political Risk 2009 looks at this issue for the first time and finds that Brazilian, Russian, Indian, and Chinese (BRIC) firms appear to worry more about political risk than global counterparts. Though these results are based on as mall sample of 90 of the largest BRIC investors, they are thought-provoking nonetheless.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Latin America

6521. Managing Land Conflict in Timor-Leste

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eight years after independence, Timor-Leste is still with- out a legal basis for determining ownership of land. In its absence, the challenges of enforcing property rights have grown more complex and increased the potential for conflict. The politically charged task of sifting through over- lapping claims inherited from the country's two colonial administrations has been complicated by widespread illegal occupation of property after the displacement of over half the population that followed the 1999 referendum. The legal and social uncertainties this created magnified the effects of the country's 2006 crisis, causing further mass displacement in the capital and beyond. Resolution of these uncertainties through new laws, regulations and policies is necessary to reduce conflict, diminish the risk of further instability and to provide a clear way to resolve past and future disputes.
Topic:
Environment and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Asia

6522. China's Myanmar Strategy: Elections, Ethnic Politics and Economics

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar's 2010 elections present challenges and opportunities for China's relationship with its south-western neighbour. Despite widespread international opinion that elections will be neither free nor fair, China is likely to accept any poll result that does not involve major instability. Beijing was caught off-guard by the Myanmar military's offensive into Kokang in August 2009 that sent more than 30,000 refugees into Yunnan province. Since then it has used pressure and mediation to push Naypyidaw and the ethnic groups that live close to China's border to the negotiating table. Beyond border stability, Beijing feels its interests in Myanmar are being challenged by a changing bilateral balance of power due to the Obama administration's engagement policy and China's increasing energy stakes in the country. Beijing is seeking to consolidate political and economic ties by stepping up visits from top leaders, investment, loans and trade. But China faces limits to its influence, including growing popular opposition to the exploitation of Myanmar's natural resources by Chinese firms, and divergent interests and policy implementation between Beijing and local governments in Yunnan.
Topic:
Democratization and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China

6523. Central Asia: Chased by Chaos

Author:
Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Aside from the threat of political violence, most Central Asian states are faced with internal, as well as external threats from terrorism and organized crime. All states must work and cooperate amongst themselves and with their neighbors to come up with a sustainable response to these threats and ensure the stability of the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Central Asia

6524. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): Reducing Human Vulnerabilities To Natural Disasters

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the world has witnessed several major natural disasters, from the boxing day tsunami in 2004, to the Haiti earthquake in January 2010 and the recent floods in Pakistan in August 2010. The 'World Disasters Report 2009' states that 3,605 natural disaster occurrences were recorded from 2000 to 2008. In many of these disasters, critics have repeatedly brought up the issue of the failure to provide adequate response, calling on states and international communities to shift from reactive to proactive approaches to disaster management. In fact, as the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) acknowledges, policymakers have come to better understand how natural disasters exacerbate vulnerabilities of states and communities (UN, 2005). It should be noted that natural disasters have greater impact on poor countries and communities in particular as they tend to be more exposed to hazards and have less capacity and awareness to manage disaster risks (Concern Emergency Unit, 2005:2). This places greater importance on disaster risk reduction (DRR) as a means of reducing vulnerabilities of such states and communities and building their resilience to natural hazards.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan

6525. Nonstate Policing: Expanding the Scope for Tackling Africa's Urban Violence

Author:
Bruce Baker
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Violent crime in Africa's cities is endemic and in many places worsening. Africa as a whole has a homicide rate of 20 per 100,000 (in Europe it is 5.4, in North America 6.5, and in South America 25.9). The problem is particularly severe in some urban areas. Kinshasa's homicide rate is estimated to be as high as 112 homicides per 100,000. The Nigerian police have recorded consistently rising rates of murder and at - tempted murder over the last 20 years. Rates of armed robbery in Africa are also very high. In Nairobi, 37 percent of residents reported being victims. The rate is 27 percent in some Mozambican cities and 21 percent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC).
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nairobi

6526. Illicit Arms in Indonesia

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A bloody bank robbery in Medan in August 2010 and the discovery in Aceh in February 2010 of a terrorist training camp using old police weapons have focused public attention on the circulation of illegal arms in Indonesia. These incidents raise questions about how firearms fall into criminal hands and what measures are in place to stop them. The issue has become more urgent as the small groups of Indonesian jihadis, concerned about Muslim casualties in bomb attacks, are starting to discuss targeted killings as a preferred method of operation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Indonesia

6527. Halving Hunger: Still Possible? Building a rescue package to set the MDGs back on track

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Ten years after the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) agreed by world leaders became the greatest-ever commitment for a 'more peaceful, prosperous and just future', progress is slow and many hard-won achievements have been undone after the global food, fuel and economic crises. Unless an urgent rescue package is developed to accelerate fulfillment of all the MDGs, we are likely to witness the greatest collective failure in history.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United Nations

6528. Short Sales Bans: Shooting the Messenger?

Author:
Laurence Copeland
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In response to the recent financial crisis, many governments chose to ban or restrict short sales, hoping to mitigate the impact of the stock market downturn. Stock markets function as a continuous election, held to determine the allocation of resources with buyers voting for and sellers voting against investment in particular stocks. Banning short selling is akin to disenfranchising the "no" voter, thereby creating a distortion in the resource allocation process. Ban-induced price distortions damage the integrity of stock prices among investors and potentially cause stocks to expand beyond what is optimal for the firms and the economy.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Washington

6529. Pakistan\'s Roller-Coaster Economy: Tax Evasion Stifles Growth

Author:
S. Akbar Zaidi
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the last sixty years, Pakistan\'s economy has seen severe ups and downs. Once considered a model for other developing nations, Pakistan has been unable to sustain solid growth. Furthermore, a third of its population now lives below the poverty line, and its literacy rate is abysmally low. Pakistan\'s economic instability stems in large part from low government revenue resulting from the elite\'s use of tax evasions, loopholes, and exemptions. Fewer than three million of Pakistan\'s 175 million citizens pay any income taxes, and the country\'s tax-to-GDP ratio is only 9 percent. Tax evasion means fewer resources are available for essential social services. Pakistan spends too much on defense and too little on development: It has spent twice as much on defense during peacetime as it has on education and health combined. The government knows how to increase its revenue through tax reform, but the rich and powerful have resisted such measures for fear of lowering their own incomes. Without sufficient revenue the government will continue to be burdened with an unsustainable debt. It needs to end tax exemptions for the wealthy and develop broader, long-term economic plans for sustain able growth. In the past, the United States and other Western nations have come to Pakistan\'s rescue by paying off debts and funding development initiatives. Pakistan\'s elite has no reason to support reform as long as these bailouts come with no conditions attached.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

6530. Improving the Governance of the Food Aid Convention: Which Way Forward?

Author:
Jennifer Clapp and C. Stuart Clark
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Informal talks began in mid-2010 on renegotiating the FAC with a view to adopting a new agreement by June 2011. The FAC is an international agreement that sets out the rules and minimum commitments for member countries which donate international food aid to feed hungry people in developing countries. The existing Convention is dated and requires revision on a number of fronts (Clay 2010; Hoddinott, Cohen and Barrett 2008; Barrett and Maxwell 2006), particularly in the current context of high food insecurity and volatile world food markets (FAO 2009a; FAO 2010). The effectiveness of the FAC as a mechanism to provide appropriate and predictable minimum levels of food aid to those in need has been diminishing to the point of virtual invisibility in the midst of the recent food price crisis — a clear illustration of its fading legitimacy.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Food

6531. The Environment and Corporate Governance in Zimbabwe

Author:
Hany Besada and arolina Werner
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Formerly one of Africa's most promising economies, Zimbabwe has begun a process of economic reconstruction after decades of political turmoil and economic mismanagement. The advent of a national unity government in February 2009 launched a new but still tentative era of political stability. The government has a daunting political and economic agenda. Top priorities include restoring the rule of law, demonstrating fiscal responsibility, and putting in place macroeconomic and structural reforms to win the confidence of domestic and international investors.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

6532. Reaching for Justice: The participation of victims at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia

Author:
Johanna Herman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) is the first international or internationalised tribunal to include the participation of victims as Civil Parties during the trial. There was a steep learning curve regarding management of victims' involvement in the first trial. There was initially insufficient funding allocated to support victims' participation, with late establishment and understaffing of victim support at the ECCC. Cambodian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have proved instrumental in ensuring the submission of Civil Party applications, legal representation and other forms of support for Civil Parties throughout the process and played a pivotal role in outreach activities. Donors should consider financing NGO and civil society activities that support victim participation, in order to maximise the impact of the significant expenditures they are often allocating to the ECCC. The challenges and successes of the first trial provide lessons not only for future ECCC cases but also for other courts concerning the participation of victims such as the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Southeast Asia

6533. The Civil Society-Military Relationship in Afghanistan

Author:
Lisa Schirch
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The intense challenge of coordinating government civilians with military actors in the International Security Assistance Forces' Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan has inhibited development of military relationships with civil society. The counterinsurgency strategy of “shape, clear, hold, build” invites civil society organizations (CSOs) to play key roles in the final “build” stage at the operational level. Yet many CSOs resist “coordination” in a mission and strategy different from their own. CSOs seek greater policy dialogue and “communication” with high-level ISAF decision makers, particularly during planning stages. An ongoing, high-level forum for civil society-military policy dialogue could help address tensions, provide a mechanism for CSOs to share their conflict assessments, and explore areas for possible collaboration such as in security sector reform.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Indonesia

6534. The ICJ's Advisory Opinion on Kosovo

Author:
Richard Caplan
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On July 22, 2010, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued its advisory opinion on Kosovo's declaration of independence of February 17, 2008, observing that the declaration was not in violation of international law. The Court's opinion may facilitate further recognitions of Kosovo but thus far there has been no significant increase in the number of countries extending recognition. Although the Court's opinion was drafted with the specific and unique circumstances of the Kosovo case in mind, it has been followed with interest by separatist parties engaged in contested territorial struggles elsewhere around the world. Separatists are likely also to be watching with interest the next steps that may be taken with regard to Kosovo in the wake of the ICJ's advisory opinion, especially any boundary adjustments that may be proposed and agreed upon between the Serbian and Kosovar governments.
Topic:
International Law and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Kosovo and Balkans

6535. Cautious Optimism for Peace in Colombia

Author:
Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The new Colombian administration that took office in early August faces a unique set of peacemaking challenges and opportunities related to the country's internal armed conflict. Following a spate of tensions with neighboring countries regarding the presence of illegal armed groups along Colombia's border areas, newly-inaugurated President Juan Manuel Santos moved quickly to create new mechanisms with his neighbors to ensure that contentious regional issues are addressed before they reach the boiling point. In a surprising video released just before the president-elect was inaugurated, the top leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces-People's Army (FARC-EP), called on Santos to enter a dialogue without preconditions, thereby opening a new window of opportunities to pursue peace. President Santos responded that “the door to dialogue is not locked,” insisting however that the guerrillas must lay down their weapons and meet a series of other pre-conditions before talks could occur. Former mediators differ over whether such preconditions will pose an obstacle to talks. In the final days of August, Brazil and Ecuador rejected a FARC-EP request for meeting with the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to discuss a political solution to Colombia's conflict. UNASUR leaders said they would not engage in mediating the conflict in the absence of an express invitation from the Colombian government. The Colombian government has rejected UNASUR mediation and underscored its preference to negotiate directly with the FARC-EP once the latter meets the government's preconditions. Concrete good faith efforts—both public and private—will be required from the government and the guerrillas to build confidence, address the legacy of distrust created by decades of violence and set the stage for future talks.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, and Latin America

6536. Afghanistan: Conditions-Based Redeployment

Author:
William B. Taylor
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
President Barack Obama's policy of a conditions-based redeployment in Afghanistan starting in July 2011 leaves him a lot of flexibility. The administration will likely decide to maintain the troop numbers in Afghanistan near the surge level next year, pending another review.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

6537. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan

Author:
Matt Waldman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

6538. Iran's Subsidies Conundrum

Author:
Semira Nikou
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has subsidized petroleum products, basic foodstuffs, medical goods and utilities since 1980, first to manage hardships during the eight-year war with Iraq, and then to prevent political and economic challenges after the war. Since the 1990s, three presidents have tried to cut back subsidies that are now estimated to cost Iran between $70 billion and $100 billion annually. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won parliamentary approval for a controversial plan to phase out subsides by 2015. Under the plan, universal price controls are to be replaced with small cash payments to families and direct support of industries. Some economists are concerned that lifting price controls will trigger dramatic rises in inflation and unemployment. The cutbacks come at a time the government already faces serious economic troubles and tougher international sanctions. For the public, the change is likely to produce the most economic disruption since the revolution. Economic reforms have triggered unrest in the past. If reform succeeds, however, the program could help reduce waste, shrink state outlays and enhance efficiency and productivity.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

6539. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

6540. Many Shuras Do Not a Government Make: International Community Engagement with Local Councils in Afghanistan

Author:
Noah Coburn and Shahmahmood Miakhel
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The need to engage local Afghan leaders and support community decision making has recently been promoted as a key element of both development and counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan. The resulting proliferation of community councils—commonly called shuras or jirgas— sponsored by different actors within the Afghan government and international community has decreased the effectiveness of local governance and rule of law in many places. Traditional Afghan dispute resolution and governance bodies are most effective when they are formed by local residents and genuinely reflect the interests of the community. Their legitimacy decreases if international or government sponsors create shuras or jirgas to promote their own interests. This paradox creates a dilemma for programs designed to foster good governance: how to promote community self-rule that reflects traditional values and mechanisms and that develop locally, while adhering to rigid counterinsurgency and development timelines and strategies. These so-called 'traditional' political structures have an important place in local governance in Afghanistan, but the international community should not assume that such bodies fairly represent their respective communities. Rather, sound understanding of local dynamics and in-depth consultation with local government actors and community leaders are necessary to help ensure that such bodies are represented and thus, legitimate within the community. A more coherent, sustainable vision of long-term local governance and coordinated strategies between the Afghan government and international forces is necessary to bring both stability and development to Afghanistan. In particular, this Peace Brief supports the attempts to create a coherent long-term goal of local governance based on legitimate local actors, most likely selected through elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

6541. Misdirected Development a Threat to Security – Analysis of Southeast Asia

Author:
Manpavan Joth Kaur and Lina Gong
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Under-performance on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and conflicts are connected such that the former can catalyse or prolong the latter. This Insight looks at Southeast Asia, where intrastate conflicts and violence have plagued countries for years. Three socially vulnerable groups experiencing inequality in access to outcomes of projects on the MDGs are identified - women and youth in rural areas and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The propensity for such inequality to incite and prolong conflict is examined.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

6542. Dependency and Complacency in the Energy Sector: Implications for Human Security

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The need for higher levels of economic growth and development – in both developing and developed countries – has only served to increase the world's appetite for energy. The persistent dependence on traditional sources of energy in the form of fossil fuels such as oil and coal relegates the plan to develop renewable sources of energy to a long-term goal despite the desire for sustainable development and a low-carbon economy. Such dependency on these energy sources has sometimes come with a degree of complacency. Complacency sets in when profit-driven firms fail to take into account the socioeconomic and environmental implications of the development of traditional energy sources; these could indirectly affect production and operational processes as well as the firms' overall image. This complacency is reflected in ineffective management which can and has posed threats to human security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6543. New Crisis, Old Demons in Lebanon

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le Liban traverse, à nouveau, une zone de graves dangers. La crise qu'il subit depuis l'assassinat en 2005 de l'an- cien premier ministre Rafic Hariri, connaît en effet une nouvelle mutation particulièrement dangereuse, à mesure que les perspectives de mises en accusation décidées par le tribunal international chargé d'enquêter sur ce meurtre se font plus précises. L'implication attendue de membres du Hizbollah a replongé la scène politique dans une lutte féroce, où se jouent tout à la fois les relations intercommu- nautaires, la légitimité de la résistance que ce mouvement incarne, la crédibilité du tribunal, la survie de l'actuel gouvernement d'unité nationale, la solidité du récent rap- prochement syro-saoudien et, plus généralement, la stabi- lité bien fragile du pays. Le soutien international offert au tribunal, son rejet catégorique par le Hizbollah, et la diffi- culté qu'il y a pour Saad Hariri, premier ministre et fils de Rafic, à le désavouer risque de conduire rapidement à une impasse, dont les effets se re porteront rapidement au ni- veau de la rue.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia

6544. The Making of a Seoul Development: Consensus The essential development agenda for the G20

Author:
Jasmine Burnley and Elizabeth Stuart
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
When the G20 meets in Seoul in November 2010, it has a big choice to make. It can either retreat into a narrow focus on its own interests, or it can prove it is capable of genuine global leadership in the face of the interlinked economic, food, and climate change crises. The G20 must adopt a Seoul 'development consensus' that confronts the challenges of the 21st century: reducing inequality and tackling global poverty through sustainable, equitable growth that gives poor women and men, and their governments, the tools they need to overcome poverty.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, and South Korea

6545. Righting Two Wrongs: Making a new Global Climate Fund work for poor people

Author:
Tracy Carty
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climate-related shocks are negatively affecting the lives of millions of poor women and men with increasing frequency and severity. The non- binding pledges made in Copenhagen put the world on track for a catastrophic temperature rise of 3-4°C. If developed countries fail to set much more ambitious emissions targets, the cost of damages will increase dramatically. There is an urgent need to set up a proper system of finance for adaptation to help developing countries avoid the worst impacts.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, and Development

6546. Agricultural challenges and opportunities for Haiti's reconstruction

Author:
Marc Cohen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The massive earthquake that struck Haiti on 12 January 2010 devastated rural areas as well as urban, destroying crops, farm buildings, equipment, and infrastructure. Indirect effects touched almost every corner of the nation, as 600,000 people migrated to the countryside, increasing pressure on already stretched food and fuel resources. Internal displacement worsened food insecurity, which affected six out of ten people even before the disaster.
Topic:
Development, Disaster Relief, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
Caribbean

6547. How to Change the EU Treaties: An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon

Author:
Peadar ó Broin
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Less than a year has passed since the Lisbon Treaty became part of EU law, thereby bringing to an end almost a decade of intergovernmental wrangling over EU institutional reform. Yet despite its protracted ratification process and pledges from national administrations and EU authorities that the Lisbon Treaty had closed the issue of treaty reform for the foreseeable future, a number of modifications to the EU treaties are currently in the pipeline. One such proposal, relating to the number of seats in the European Parliament, has already left the drawing board and is presently pending national ratification. But perhaps most significant are those proposals that could amount to major treaty reform in areas such as the Franco-German Declaration of Deauville, which proposes significant changes in the area of economic and monetary union and, possibly also institutional reform.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

6548. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon Treaty Revision(s)

Author:
Piotr Maciej Kaczyński and Peadar ó Broin
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It has only been one year since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and already there is a stack of pending issues requiring primary law change in the EU. The Franco-German Deauville Declaration of 18 October 2010 is probably the most politically prominent of them all, yet it is not the first, nor will it be the last in a long, incremental process of constant treaty revision similar to the national process of amending national constitutions. All of these proposals have one feature in common: none of them is an overarching treaty change and each one is designed in such a way that amends only one element of the system. This, in theory, should avoid the need to submit the change to public referenda in the EU as part of the ratification process.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Lisbon

6549. What reforms for the credit rating industry? A European perspective

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Credit rating agencies (CRAs) continue to find themselves in the eye of the storm. Despite having singled out the industry early on in the financial crisis as needing more regulation, policy-makers seem not to be reassured by the measures that have been adopted in the meantime, and want to go further. Faced with a rapid downgrading in ratings in the context of the sovereign debt crisis, European Commissioner Michel Barnier raised the possibility last May of creating a new EU-level rating agency that would specialise in sovereign debt.
Topic:
Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

6550. What kind of governance for the eurozone?

Author:
Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The survival of the eurozone hinges on the capacity of its leaders to improve its governance. This has become very clear since the eruption of the government debt crisis in the eurozone in 2009, which can be said to result from a failure of economic governance. In order to answer the question of how the economic governance of the eurozone should be reformed, we should first make a diagnosis of the crisis in which the eurozone has been mired since 2009.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe