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51. Key Issues in the Myanmar November 2020 Elections

Author:
Erik Martinez Kuhonta, Franque Grimard, and Kai Scott
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:
On 8 November 2020, Myanmar will hold its second election since the country’s gradual liberalization began. Despite presenting itself as a force for liberal democracy five years ago, the National League for Democracy (NLD) has demonstrated its unwillingness to commit itself to the protection of civil freedoms and the expansion of federal governance. It has fallen short of campaign promises by failing to enact meaningful constitutional change, improve economic performance, and address the protracted peace process. Notably, the government has created a climate that represses dissidents and undermines ethnic pluralism. Yet, the NLD’s support base remains strong, in part as a result of Aung San Suu Kyi’s continued ability to appeal to a Bamar-majority voter base by opposing the military cronyism of past and rooting herself in ethno-nationalist values, as witnessed in her decision to respond to charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice at the Hague. As a result, the NLD’s continued dominance over the Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) is expected to continue. In the ethnic states, the situation is different—here, the ethnic political parties are expected to make gains on the NLD, as their recent merging place them well to take advantage of anti-NLD sentiment that has grown within ethnic minorities over the years because of the NLD’s perceived Bamar-centric governance. In addition, a lack of trust in the Union Elections Commission and complications due to covid-19 are significant sources of risk in the running of the 2020 election.
Topic:
Development, Government, Human Rights, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

52. Securing macroeconomic and monetary stability with a Federal Reserve–backed digital currency

Author:
Julia Coronado and Simon Potter
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US monetary system faces significant challenges from advances in technology and changes in the macroeconomy that, left unaddressed, will threaten the stability of the US economy and financial system. At the same time, low interest rates mean that central banks will not have the policy ammunition they had in the past during the next recession. The Federal Reserve needs new tools to meet its mandates of price stability and maximum employment. It also needs to preserve the safety and soundness of the financial system in a rapidly digitizing world. The authors propose a Fed-backed digital currency to solve both problems. Their proposal creates a regulated system of digital currency accounts for consumers managed by digital payment providers and fully backed by reserves at the Fed. The system would be limited in size, to preserve the functions and stability of the existing banking system. Fed backing would mean low capital requirements, which would in turn facilitate competition. Low fees and no minimum balance requirements in the new system would also help financial institutions reach the roughly 25 percent of the US population that is currently either unbanked or underbanked. Digital accounts for consumers could also provide a powerful new stabilization tool for both monetary and fiscal policies. For fiscal policy, it could facilitate new automatic stabilizers while also allowing the Fed to provide quantitative easing directly to consumers. This tool could be used in a timely manner with broad reach to all Americans.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, Banks, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

53. Reviving the potency of monetary policy with recession insurance bonds

Author:
Julia Coronado and Simon Potter
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the second part of their Policy Brief, Coronado and Potter discuss how the system of digital payment providers (DPPs) proposed in their first Policy Brief on this topic adds a new weapon to the monetary toolkit that could be implemented in a timely, effective, and inclusive manner. They describe how a digital currency backed by the Federal Reserve could augment automatic fiscal stabilizers and—more importantly—harness the power of “helicopter” money or quantitative easing directly to consumers in a disciplined manner. To implement QE directly to consumers, Coronado and Potter propose the creation of recession insurance bonds (RIBs)—zero-coupon bonds authorized by Congress and calibrated as a percentage of GDP sufficient to provide meaningful support in a downturn. Congress would create these contingent securities; Treasury would credit households’ digital accounts with them. The Fed could purchase them from households in a downturn after its policy rate hits zero. The Fed’s balance sheet would grow by the value of RIBs purchased; the initial matching liability would be deposits into the DPP system. The mechanism is easy for consumers to understand and could boost inflation expectations more than a debt-financed fiscal stimulus could.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Insurance
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

54. A New Policy Toolkit Is Needed as Countries Exit COVID-19 Lockdowns

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The measures that most governments took in response to the sudden collapse in economic activity during the COVID-19 lockdowns nearly exclusively focused on protecting vulnerable workers and firms. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. As lockdowns are lifted, governments must shift policies toward supporting the recovery and design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment while preserving productive jobs and firms. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. The authors propose a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and debt restructuring procedures for small and medium-sized companies handicapped by excessive legacy debt from the crisis.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, Labor Issues, Unemployment, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

55. Developing Countries Can Help Restore the WTO's Dispute Settlement System

Author:
Ana González and Euijin Jung
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
By refusing to fill vacancies in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body—the top body that hears appeals and rules on trade disputes—the Trump administration has paralyzed the key component of the dispute settlement system. No nation or group of nations has more at stake in salvaging this system than the world’s big emerging-market economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, and Thailand, among others. These countries have actively and successfully used the dispute settlement system to defend their commercial interests abroad and resolve inevitable trade conflicts. The authors suggest that even though the developing countries did not create the Appellate Body crisis, they may hold a key to unlock it. The Trump administration has also focused its ire on a longstanding WTO practice of giving these economies latitude to seek “special and differential treatment” in trade negotiations because of their developing-country status. The largest developing economies, which have a significant stake in preserving a two-step, rules-based mechanism for resolving trade disputes, could play a role in driving a potential bargain to save the appeals mechanism. They could unite to give up that special status in return for a US commitment to end its boycott of the nomination of Appellate Body members.
Topic:
Development, Government, World Trade Organization, Developing World, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Brazil, North America, Mexico, Thailand, and United States of America

56. Automatic stabilizers in a low-rate environment

Author:
Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
With interest rates persistently low or even negative in advanced countries, policymakers have barely any room to ease monetary policy when the next recession hits. Fiscal policy will have to play a major and likely dominant role in stimulating the economy, requiring policymakers to fundamentally reconsider fiscal policy. Blanchard and Summers argue for the introduction of what they call “semiautomatic” stabilizers. Unlike purely automatic stabilizers (mechanisms built into government budgets that automatically—without discretionary government action or explicit triggers—increase spending or decrease taxes when the economy slows or enters a recession), semiautomatic stabilizers are targeted tax or spending measures that are triggered if, say, the output growth rate declines or the unemployment rate increases beyond a specified threshold. The authors argue that the trigger should be changes in unemployment rather than changes in output, and the design of semiautomatic stabilizers, whether they focus on mechanisms that rely primarily on income or on intertemporal substitution effects (changing the timing of consumption), depends crucially on the design of discretionary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

57. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Most governments have taken measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity related to COVID-19. But as lockdowns are lifted, the focus must shift, and governments in advanced economies must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment.
Topic:
Government, Labor Issues, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. The French initiative: technocratic fixes for Lebanon’s chronic crises

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Major Lebanese factions are urgently trying to fulfill French demands for the formation of a technocratic government that opens the door for international aids and alleviates public anger and increasing foreign isolation.
Topic:
Government, Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, and Technocracy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon

59. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The measures that most governments took in response to the sudden collapse in economic activity during the COVID-19 lockdowns nearly exclusively focused on protecting vulnerable workers and firms. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. As lockdowns are lifted, governments must shift policies toward supporting the recovery and design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment while preserving productive jobs and firms. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. The authors propose a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and debt restructuring procedures for small and medium-sized companies handicapped by excessive legacy debt from the crisis.
Topic:
Government, Labor Issues, European Union, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

60. Viral vulnerability: How the pandemic is making democracy sick in the Western Balkans

Author:
Beáta Huszka and Tania Lessenska
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The covid-19 crisis has accentuated Western Balkans countries’ pre-existing vulnerabilities related to the rule of law and democratic governance – but has not brought about a new political era in the region. Western Balkans governments have often taken selective and arbitrary approaches to applying restrictions in response to the pandemic, sometimes using these measures to silence their critics and opponents. The measures could have the most severe long-term effects of any aspect of the crisis response. They exacerbate the greatest threat to the accession process in the Western Balkans: backsliding on the EU’s political criteria. Yet the EU seems less inclined than it once was to allow Western Balkans governments to get away with democratic backsliding just because they align themselves with the bloc geopolitically.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Democracy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

61. Czech EU presidency: Basis for a Successful Implementation

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Czech policy makers must not resort to a partisan programme of the Czech presidency. Strong antipathy between government and opposition might create a fragile political environment for the presidency Czech priorities must be thoroughly discussed with partners in trio, and the Czech Republic should closely coordinate its intentions with Sweden in order to counterbalance French influence Space of Czech initiatives will be limited due to the current phase of the EP legislative period, and the Czechs should thus focus only on particular issues that they consider vital – single market policies, environmental policies, and innovation. The EU presidency must be used for EU membership promotion in the Czech Republic. Importantly, there should take place high-level meetings in the Czech Republic and outside of Prague.
Topic:
Environment, Government, Markets, European Union, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

62. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability

Author:
Gerrit Kurtz
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany

63. Bad company: How dark money threatens Sudan’s transition

Author:
Jean-Baptiste Gallopin
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Sudan’s transition to constitutional rule is failing: the reform of political institutions has not begun, while the country faces an intensifying economic crisis, a dramatic decline in living conditions, and a flare-up in localised violence. The civilian wing of the Sudanese state is bankrupt but unwilling to confront powerful generals, who control a sprawling network of companies and keep the central bank and the Ministry of Finance on life support to gain political power. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia appear to be positioning a paramilitary leader known as Hemedti as Sudan’s next ruler, but the military is fiercely hostile towards him. Western countries and international institutions have let the civilian wing of the government down: they failed to provide the financial and political support that would allow Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to hold his own against the generals. The transition will only succeed if the government stabilises the economy and civilians work hard to tilt the balance of power away from the military and towards themselves. Europeans should use their relationships with Hamdok, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to establish civilian control of the generals’ networks of companies.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Reform, Finance, and Transition
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

64. Brief on COVID-19: National governments, not the EU, sleepwalked into the corona crisis

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his brief, Christian Kvorning Lassen writes that on January 26, the EU’s Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) warned Member States that Covid-19 infection spread in Europe would be probable and considerable. The EU offered in January to support Member States with purchasing of medical equipment, test kits, protective gear, and general support. Member States refused the EU’s help in January, stating that their health care systems were adequately prepared for the Virus.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

65. Holding to Account: How Publishing Facts about Foreign Corruption Creates Accountability

Author:
Aaron Sayne and Melanie D. Reed
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The complex, secretive nature of foreign corruption calls for a collaborative, all-hands-on-deck approach. Corrupt actors go to great lengths to hide their wrongdoing, using layers of legal entities, transactions, secrecy jurisdictions and middlemen. No one response can detect and prevent every bad act, and different anticorruption actors have their own unique interests, mandates and abilities. In many cases, they may struggle even to learn the facts of what went wrong. Prosecuting a corruption crime generates reams of valuable information. This can include the names of bribe takers and payers; the industries, countries and public institutions involved; how the proceeds of crime changed hands; and who facilitated or turned a blind eye. Who should get to see this information? Thought leaders on anticorruption, from Transparency International (TI) to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Working Group on Bribery (OECD WGB), have long endorsed greater transparency in foreign corruption cases. They argue, for example, that access to information raises awareness, gives guidance to anticorruption practitioners, encourages cooperation with prosecutors and boosts confidence in law enforcement. Conversely, opacity in corruption cases can weaken the deterrent value of prosecutions, open doors for prosecutorial misconduct and thwart efforts to make victims whole. These concerns are particularly keen in cases that settle via tools like deferred prosecution agreements (DPAs) or plea bargains. Many governments share evidence from corruption cases confidentially, through formal legal instruments and close working relationships. But how does public disclosure of facts from corruption cases, whether by courts or other law enforcement bodies, aid the broader fight against corruption? Put differently: At a time when enforcement of anticorruption laws remains low in many countries, could more transparency help anticorruption efforts by regulators, companies, the media, civil society and others? To answer this question, the authors of this briefing analyzed materials from foreign corruption cases that have arisen since the inception of laws banning foreign bribery. During the past four years, they also conducted over two dozen interviews with experts government, the private sector, civil society and the press. From this work, they found instances in which other anticorruption actors used published facts from court cases to do their jobs more effectively. Although they undertook this research as part of the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s (NRGI’s) programming aimed at reducing corruption risks in the oil, gas and mining sectors, they did not limit themselves to cases in the extractive industries. Accordingly, their findings and recommendations apply broadly to corruption in other sectors.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Building a Sustainable Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain: Frequently Asked Questions

Author:
Patrick Heller, Ethan Elkind, and Ted Lamm
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The global transition from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) will require the production of hundreds of millions of batteries. The need for such a massive deployment raises questions from the general public and critics alike about the sustainability of the battery supply chain, from mining impacts to vehicle carbon emissions. Growing demand for the mineral inputs for battery production can provide an opportunity for mineral-rich countries to generate fiscal revenues and other economic opportunities. But where extraction takes place in countries with weak governance, the benefits expected by citizens and leaders may not materialize; in some cases extraction might even exacerbate corruption, human rights abuses and environmental risks. Many EV proponents and suppliers are aware that supply chain governance problems pose a challenge to the evolution of the EV industry, but outstanding questions remain about how these challenges materialize. This brief, jointly published by UC Berkeley School of Law’s Center for Law, Energy & the Environment (CLEE) and the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) provides basic information on the EV battery supply chain and key battery minerals, such as cobalt and lithium, and addresses the following questions: What does the supply chain for EV batteries comprise? How do carbon emissions from EVs compare to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? What are the most significant challenges in managing the mineral extraction necessary for the EV supply chain, and what sustainability and human rights initiatives apply?
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Government, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Governance, Regulation, Legislation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Policy Briefs: National Minorities in Political Processes – Engagement for a Better Future

Author:
Fagan Abbasov, Orkhan Pirverdiev, Rima Marangozyan, Amaliya Babayan, Margarita Khasanshina, Lilit Karakhanyan, Zakir Aivazov, Katya Mosoyan, Varduy Kurginyan, and Heydar Aliyev
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Policy Paper Series include policy briefs developed within the framework of the National Minorities in Political Processes – Engagement for a Better Future project. The papers were elaborated by the ethnic minority youth from Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli for whom it was their first attempt to work on an analytical document. The papers address the challenges and solutions for the engagement of ethnic minorities in the political, economic or social life of Georgia. The project was implemented by the Rondeli Foundation with the support and active participation of the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (OSCE HCNM). The project aims to increase the political and social inclusion of ethnic minorities and facilitate a healthy policy debate on the issues of national minorities among the political parties, thus overall contributing to good governance practices. Within the framework of the multi-component project, members of Tbilisi-based political party youth organizations, young people living in Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli and active representatives of the local community attended various thematic seminars. The project also included thematic meetings of representatives of political parties and government agencies with the representatives of national minorities, the preparation of TV programs and organizing internships in political parties for young people representing ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Government, Minorities, Elections, Youth, Language, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

68. The Rule of Law in the EU Budget: Backing Down Is Too High a Price for the EU to Pay

Author:
Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Siawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU’s new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe’s South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair’s bargaining positions – and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.
Topic:
Government, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

69. Turkey's Opposition vs. the AKP: Measuring Messaging

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Reilly Barry
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Challengers to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are proliferating, with two breakaway parties drawing particular notice. In December 2019, Ahmet Davutoglu, who served under Erdogan as foreign minister and then prime minister, formed Gelecek (Future) in an attempt to resurrect a gentler version of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). And this past March, former finance minister Ali Babacan, credited with masterminding the country’s “economic miracle” in the early Erdogan years, established the Democracy and Progress Party as another right-leaning alternative to the AKP. The remaining aspirants include the Peoples’ Democratic Party, whose capable leader remains imprisoned for allegedly supporting Kurdish militants. This Policy Note, by Soner Cagaptay and Reilly Barry, examines the political identities of Turkey’s opposition parties as compared to the AKP and allied Nationalist Action Party. It does so through an unconventional method: analyzing voter outreach through Twitter, a medium widely used by Turks. The results reveal striking trends in how these parties view Turkey’s republican (and imperial) past, and what these views suggest about the country’s political future.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

70. Iran-South Korea Humanitarian Trade Requires U.S. Assurances

Author:
Katherine Bauer and Kevin Mathieson
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tehran is pressing Seoul regarding the billions in Iranian oil revenues held by South Korean banks, creating an opportunity to expand the U.S. humanitarian trade mechanism. On July 21, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to lodge a complaint over Tehran’s heightened rhetoric regarding access to funds frozen in South Korea. The week before, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson had accused Seoul of having a “master-servant relationship” with Washington, while the governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) had previously threatened legal action to access the funds, which Tehran says it plans to use for humanitarian purchases. Although the U.S. government authorized use of the funds for such purposes in February, South Korean banks appear hesitant to move forward without additional U.S. assurances—a reluctance compounded by the $86 million fine that U.S. regulators levied on the Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK) in April for failing to identify large-scale Iranian money laundering. With COVID-19 cases on the rise again in the Islamic Republic, Washington should work with Seoul to ensure that trade for medicine, equipment, and other humanitarian items moves forward—albeit with strict oversight.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Trade
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

71. The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces

Author:
Michael Knights, Hamdi Malik, and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Three experts examine one of the most sensitive problems facing Iraq's new prime minister: the future of militias that were mobilized to fight the Islamic State but have since balked at subsuming themselves to the government's authority. On May 20, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Michael Knights, Hamdi Malik, and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, coauthors of the recent study Honored, Not Contained: The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces. Knights is a senior fellow with the Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program. Malik is a London-based Middle East analyst at IITV. Tamimi is an independent analyst and a doctoral candidate at Swansea University. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Government, Non State Actors, Islamic State, Militias, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

72. How Chinese Local Governments are Expanding Foreign Economic Cooperation

Author:
Sanghun Lee, Hongwon Kim, Joohye Kim, Jiwon Choi, and Jaehee Choi
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
As the Chinese economy becomes more advanced and the internal and external economic environment surrounding China changes, so too does China’s strategy for external openness and economic cooperation. Accordingly, specific policies are diversifying from the past focus on manufacturing and foreign direct investment to services, overseas investment, bilateral and multilateral FTAs, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs). As the central government’s policy stance changes, China’s local governments are also promoting external openness and cooperation based on regional development stages, industrial structure, and regional development policies, reflecting the central government’s strategy. In particular, after the 19th Party Congress, the central government showed a strategic stance expanding external openness. In response, local governments have moved away from the traditional method of cooperation in the manufacturing sector centered on industrial complexes, and in recent years various cooperative methods have been promoted, including regional economic integration, service and investment, the use of FTAs, and innovations in institutions to expand external openness. Along with the shift in China’s foreign economic strategy, the economic cooperation environment surrounding Korea and China is changing as well, including the strengthening of protectionism, structural changes in the Chinese economy, the Korea-China FTA coming into effect, and the launch of follow-up negotiations. Therefore Korea needs to find new strategies and measures for economic cooperation with China, making it time to find new ways to expand cooperation with China’s central and local governments. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyze the strategies, detailed policies and major cases of China’s central and local governments’ external openness and economic cooperation, and to draw policy implications for strengthening economic cooperation between Korea and China in the future.
Topic:
Government, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

73. National Health Mission

Author:
Snehal Shah, Avani Kapur, and Abhishek Andasu
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
he National Health Mission (NHM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) largest public health programme. It consists of two sub-missions: National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), and National Urban Health Mission (NUHM). Using government data, this brief reports on: GoI allocations and releases; Incentives and penalties to states under conditionality framework; NHM approvals and expenditures as per programmatic components; and Outputs and outcomes.
Topic:
Government, Health, Health Care Policy, Budget, Social Policy, Public Policy, and Rural
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

74. Swachh Bharat Mission – Gramin

Author:
Avani Kapur and Sanjana Malhotra
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Swachh Bharat Mission- Gramin or SBM-G is the Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship rural sanitation programme run by the Ministry of Jal Shakti (MJS). Using government data, this brief reports on trends for SBM-G along the following parameters: Allocations and expenditures; Physical progress of toilets built; Expenditures incurred under Information, Education, and Communication (IEC); Solid Liquid Waste Management (SLWM) activities; and Coverage and Open Defecation Free (ODF) status.
Topic:
Government, Health, Infrastructure, Budget, Social Policy, Rural, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

75. Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana & Janani Suraksha Yojana

Author:
Avani Kapur and Tenzin Yangki
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This brief reports on two schemes: a) The Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), Government of India’s (GoI’s) maternity benefit scheme aimed at providing partial compensation for wage loss and improving health seeking behaviour of pregnant women and lactating mothers, and b) the Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) aimed at incentivising institutional and safe delivery to reduce infant and maternal mortality. Using government data, this brief reports on: Trends in allocations, releases, and utilisation; Coverage and payments; and Outputs and outcomes.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Government, Health, Health Care Policy, Budget, Women, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

76. Ayushman Bharat

Author:
Ritwik Shukla and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Ayushman Bharat, under the aegis of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) was launched by Government of India (GoI) on 23 September 2018. The programme consists of two initiatives: (1) The Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY); and 2) The establishment of 1.5 lakh Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs). Using government data, this brief reports on the following indicators: GoI allocations and releases; Eligibility and claims under PMJAY; and Number of operational HWCs and diseases screened.
Topic:
Government, Health, Health Care Policy, and Budget
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

77. Pradhan Mantri KIsan SAmman Nidhi

Author:
Vastav Irava and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Pradhan Mantri KIsan SAmman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) is an income support scheme by the Government of India (GoI) in which small and marginal farmers get up to Rs 6,000 per year to supplement their financial needs. Using government data, this brief reports on trends in PM-KISAN along the following parameters: Trends in allocations and releases; Receipt of funds by beneficiaries; Status of coverage.
Topic:
Government, Poverty, Budget, Social Policy, and Rural
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

78. Jal Jeevan Mission

Author:
Avani Kapur and Vastav Irava
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In Financial Year (FY) 2019-20, the National Rural Drinking Water Mission (NRDWM) was restructured and subsumed into Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM). It is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship rural drinking water programme to provide functional tap connections to every household for drinking, cooking, and other domestic needs on a sustainable basis. Using government data, this brief reports on: Overall GoI allocations; Trends in releases and expenditures; Component-wise trends; and Progress on coverage.
Topic:
Development, Government, Water, Infrastructure, Budget, Finance, and Rural
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

79. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)

Author:
Avani Kapur and Meghna Paul
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is a flagship scheme of the Government of India (GoI) which aims to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on: Trends in GoI allocations and releases and total expenditures; Trends in employment provided and wages paid; Physical assets created and status of work completion.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Rural, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

80. Samagra Shiksha

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Samagra Shiksha – An Integrated Scheme for School Education is Government of India’s (GoI’s) school education programme extending from pre-school to senior secondary classes. The scheme was launched in April 2018 to ensure equitable and inclusive quality education. The three erstwhile schemes brought under Samagra Shiksha are: Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA); Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA); and Teacher Education (TE).
Topic:
Education, Government, Budget, Children, and Youth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

81. Mid-Day Meal Scheme

Author:
Sharad Pandey and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The National Programme of Mid-Day Meals in School (MDM) scheme is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship school-based feeding programme aimed at improving the nutritional status of students and promoting the universalisation of elementary education. Using government data, this brief reports on trends for MDM performance along the following parameters: Overall trends in allocations, releases and expenditures; Expenditure performance on key MDM components such as food grains, cooking costs, honorarium to cook- cum-helper (CCH), traveling assistance and monitoring, management and evaluation; Progress on construction of kitchen-cum-stores, and; Coverage as indicated through the provision of meals to students.
Topic:
Education, Government, Children, Food Security, and Youth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

82. Swachh Bharat Mission – Urban

Author:
Avani Kapur and Sanjana Malhotra
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Swachh Bharat Mission- Urban (SBM-U) is the Government of India’s (GoI) flagship programme targeting universal sanitation coverage in urban areas. Using government data, this brief reports on: Allocations, releases, and expenditures; Progress on toilets built; Progress on Solid Waste Management (SWM); Open Defecation Free (ODF) status, and; ODF+, ODF++ and garbage free cities.
Topic:
Government, Infrastructure, Urbanization, Budget, Urban, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

83. Child Protection Services

Author:
Mridusmita Bordoloi and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Child Protection Services is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship programme to provide preventive and statutory care, and rehabilitation services to children in need of care and protection and those in conflict with the law as defined under the Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Act, 2015. This brief uses government data to analyse CPS performance along the following parameters: Trends in overall GoI allocations, releases and expenditures; State wise GoI releases and expenditures; Child Care Institutes (CCIs) and beneficiaries; Registered cases of crimes against children.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Children, Legislation, and Justice
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

84. As Israel’s Kingmaker Gets Off the Fence, Gantz Gets a Boost

Author:
David Makovksy
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although Benny Gantz’s party lost the head-to-head battle, Avigdor Liberman’s favorable influence on the coalition math has left the general in a stronger position—and taken some diplomatic weight off the Trump administration’s shoulders. Israel’s third round of elections last week seemed inconclusive at first, but the deadlock may now be broken. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did better this time than in September’s round two, but his gains were insufficient to form a new government. Potential kingmaker Avigdor Liberman jettisoned his previous idea of getting the two top parties to join forces; instead, personal antipathy and policy differences have led him to definitely state that he will not join any government Netanyahu leads. Thus, while centrist Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz may have options to shape a new government, Netanyahu has no pathway on his own. In theory, the center-left bloc has the requisite number of seats for a bare majority in the 120-member Knesset, since anti-Netanyahu forces won 62 seats. In reality, the situation is more complex.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

85. Challenges Await Oman’s New Sultan as Mourning Period Ends

Author:
Elena DeLozier
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Sultan Haitham will now be free to put his own stamp on the country's government and foreign policy, and a recent dust-up on the Yemeni border could provide the first indicator of his approach. On February 20, Oman will begin its next era in earnest. The new sultan, Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, was officially sworn in on January 11, but he has remained quiet and mostly out of sight during the forty-day mourning period that followed the death of his cousin, Sultan Qaboos. Now that this period is drawing to a close, he is free to put his stamp on Omani policy. Notably, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will lead the first international delegation to see Sultan Haitham in the post-mourning period. When the meeting was first scheduled, the secretary likely saw it as a chance to get to know the new leader, and also as a symbolic visit to make up for sending such a low-level delegation to offer condolences. Yet the two may have more to talk about now. Earlier this week, a flare-up occurred between Saudi forces and Omani-backed locals in the Yemeni border province of al-Mahra. The confrontation may be Sultan Haitham’s first regional test, and identifying the actors who help him get through it could help Washington discern future power centers within Oman’s often opaque government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Oman, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

86. Use it or Lose it: Corporate Over-Planning in the Air Force

Author:
Ross Fetterly
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The Canadian government allocates funds to departments through the annual federal budgetary process. With a Department of National Defence (DND) budget in the fiscal year 2019-20 of close to $22 billion,2 and expenditures spread out across a broad range of very different and distinct activities, expending the full allocation can be a significant challenge. While federal departments are permitted some carry-forward of eligible lapsing funds from one fiscal year to the next, in fiscal year 2018-19 the amount designated was up to five per cent of the operating budgets in their Main Estimates.3 With the federal government projecting significant budgetary deficits in the coming years, restricting or eliminating carry-forward of funding may be limited or eliminated to reduce deficits. Past practice within the department has been for the Investment Resource Management Committee (IRMC), chaired by the deputy minister, to decide on funding allocations of the carry-forward, based on departmental corporate priorities. While from an institutional perspective that aligns funding with optimal funding requirements, the consequence to organizations such as the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) is that only a limited amount of lapsed funding may be allocated the following fiscal year. Thus, the air force has a significant incentive regarding its budget: to “use it or lose it”.4 RCAF corporate over-planning (COP) is a principal in-year strategy to maximize the use of allocated financial resources. Yet, at the operational and tactical level, the concept and application of in-year over-planning is not sufficiently understood. This paper will frame over-planning within the context of the RCAF and then recommend strategies to integrate over-planning into the air force culture. Corporate over-planning is essentially a means toward an end; specifically, that of maximizing output given by defined resource allocation. The paper will first consider defence planning approaches and budget allocations, and then consider the strategic environment within which the organization operates. The third section will emphasize the need for change in how the RCAF manages financial resources, followed by a section on adapting to change. The fifth section will review the concept of over-planning. That will be followed by a discussion of RCAF institutional corporate over-planning. The seventh section will consider budgeting as communication and how this supports maintenance of a common operating picture within the RCAF on over-planning. The final section will focus on RCAF corporate over-planning by discussing the structural unexpended rate, applying an absorption rate in operations and maintenance activities, and planning investment opportunities.
Topic:
Government, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Budget
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

87. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: A Foreign Policy Assessment 2015-2019

Author:
Colin Robertson
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
An internationalist and a progressive, Justin Trudeau consistently boosts diversity, social justice, environmentalism and reconciliation with Indigenous peoples. A gifted retail politician, Trudeau prefers campaigning and contact with voters to the hurly-burly of the House of Commons. He possesses an empathy and emotional intelligence most people found lacking in his famous father, Pierre Trudeau. But are these attributes and causes out of sync with our turbulent times? Mr. Trudeau is learning firsthand what British prime minister Harold MacMillan warned U.S. president John F. Kennedy what was most likely to blow governments off-course: “Events, dear boy, events.” As Trudeau begins a second term as prime minister, the going is tougher. The Teflon is gone. He leads a minority government with new strains on national unity. Parliament, including his experiment in Senate reform, is going to require more of his time. Canada’s premiers will also need attention if he is to achieve progress on his domestic agenda. Does he have the patience and temperament for compromise and the art of the possible? The global operating system is increasingly malign, with both the rules-based international order and freer trade breaking down. Managing relations with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is difficult. Canadian farmers and business are suffering - collateral damage in the Sino-U.S. disputes. In what was supposed to be a celebration of “Canada is back”, there is doubt that Canada will win a seat on the UN Security Council in June 2020. Losing would be traumatic for his government and their sense of Canada’s place in the world. It would also be a rude shock for Canadians’ self-image of themselves internationally.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Justin Trudeau
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and United States of America

88. Financing Capital Assets: The Missing Link in Defence Procurement

Author:
Vern Kakoschke
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Defence procurement in Canada has had some well-known challenges in recent years. Many commentators have suggested possible strategies for fixing the defence procurement system. The identified problems include overspending on defence programs, unnecessary and undue delays in re-equipping Canada’s fleet of aircraft, ships and ground transport, and defence budgets that remain unspent. The problems also include procuring authorities experiencing a shortfall in manpower and expertise, the inability to execute on defence procurements, unjustified sole-sourcing without a proper competition, political interference in selection issues, and the list goes on. The proposed solutions often address process-related matters: establish a single agency responsible for defence procurement or perhaps a cabinet secretariat to manage the involvement of three of four government departments who are often not on the same page. To date, not much has been written or discussed in public policy forums on a critical question: How should the necessary capital assets be financed? At one extreme, Canada could simply write a cheque and pay for them up front, thereby placing the assets on Canada’s balance sheet. At the other extreme, Canada could drop the financing obligation into the laps of private-sector bidders and let them worry about the most efficient way of raising the necessary capital. A middle-ground solution could involve a public-private partnership (P3) structure, a model which seeks to balance the interests of the public and private sectors in a manner that leads to a better solution for all parties. Any public policy discussion often begins with first principles. What is the government’s policy objective? It is to procure the best available equipment, with the most benefit to the Canadian economy or local interest groups and at the lowest possible cost. All three goals must be balanced in a manner that is politically acceptable, meets budget constraints and withstands public scrutiny. In major procurements, capital can be the largest single cost of a defence procurement.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, Armed Forces, Finance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

89. Complex Project Delivery Capability Matters

Author:
Ian Mack
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Canada’s experience with the Phoenix pay system is not just a pay problem. It points to wider problems in Canada’s management of complex major projects. Learning from Phoenix is important for the Government of Canada as a whole and the Department of National Defence specifically, the latter arguably responsible for the largest portfolio of complex projects – both for weapon systems platform and information technology initiatives. Fortunately, it appears that the Liberal government has taken notice. In the most recent Mandate Letters to Ministers, the Treasury Board President has been directed to ‘improve project management capabilities so that all major projects in government are led by a certified professional with at least five years of experience’. Additionally, the new position of Minister of Digital Government was tasked to ‘lead work to create a centre of expertise that brings together the necessary skills to effectively implement major transformation projects across government, including technical, procurement and legal expertise’ (and to lead in the replacement of the replacement pay system). This paper attempts to shed some light on the matter of pursuing complex projects and the enormity of the task at hand. I say “enormity” because complex projects are difficult to deliver at all (let alone on time and budget), as in evidence by the number that continue to fail in the private and public sectors, regardless of the complex project capabilities of those responsible for delivering them.
Topic:
Government, Budget, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

90. Canada’s Campaign for a Seat on the United Nations Security Council: The Historical Context

Author:
Adam Chapnick
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
On Feb. 11, 2016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau briefed the Ottawa press corps after a meeting with the United Nations (UN) secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon. Having pledged during the 2015 election campaign to re-engage with the UN, he noted that doing so would include “looking towards a bid for the Security Council.” Perhaps this comment should not have surprised. The Conservative government’s failure to win a Security Council (UNSC) seat in 2010 had been a subject of Liberal ridicule for years. Yet, council membership was not included among the Liberals’ 167 campaign promises, nor was it mentioned specifically in then-Foreign Affairs minister Stéphane Dion’s mandate letter. One month later, Trudeau met with Ban again, this time in New York. Afterwards, with Dion looking on, Trudeau announced that Canada would be joining the 2020 Western European and Others Group (WEOG) election for one of two non-permanent seats on the Security Council in 2021-2022. The move was unprecedented. It marked the first time that a Canadian prime minister, and not the Foreign Affairs minister or a member of the foreign service, had publicly declared Canada’s initial interest in a council seat. It was also the first time that Canada had deliberately entered an already contested election: Ireland, Norway and San Marino would be its opponents for two WEOG seats. This brief history of Canadian interest in Security Council membership will suggest that attempting to return to the UNSC was the right decision, made at the wrong time, and for the wrong reasons.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, Politics, History, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Canada, United Nations, and North America

91. Strong Yet Brittle: The Risks of Digital Authoritarianism

Author:
Katherine Mansted
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Authoritarian governments increasingly adopt technology-centric national strategies and methods of internal governance. They control their societies through digital censorship, propaganda, and surveillance, and use these same tools to manipulate foreign societies. Their leaders prioritize the development of cutting-edge technologies in pursuit of government efficiency and military and economic advantage. Some analysts view this turn to “digital authoritarianism” as an approach designed to make authoritarians more durable at home and powerful abroad. However, authoritarians adopt technology-centric strategies primarily due to their own insecurity. Digital authoritarianism is not so much a strategic choice, as it is a strategic necessity. In a globalized world, ideas and communications technologies are inherently threatening to authoritarian regimes, which must control both to ensure their survival. Authoritarians also increasingly depend on information technologies for economic growth and to build state capacity in areas where they have traditionally been at a comparative disadvantage to democracies. Ultimately, digital authoritarianism creates systemic risks for domestic governance and national security. In this sense, while digital authoritarianism has strengths, it will also become a regime’s Achilles’ Heel.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

92. The Sales Tax Proposal: Are We Beating a Dead Horse? Preliminary results from a rapid assessment

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Florence Banda-Muleya
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The fiscal authorities have argued that the horse – in this case, (value-added tax) VAT – is dead. In contrast, this rapid assessment argues that the VAT may have been pronounced dead too quickly, perhaps for expediency’s sake. Examples from many countries abound and show that with the right fiscal discipline to ring-fence VAT refunds and improve compliance, VAT works just fine, offering value-added incentives and avoiding cascading effects. In finding a solution for this supposedly dead horse, important questions that we need to ask are “Is the horse really dead? If it is, what killed the horse?” Without this introspection, the other horse in form of Sales Tax, which in fact died and was buried 25 years ago, might be resurrected. Without learning from previous experiences and experiences elsewhere, we are bound to make the same mistakes in trying to resuscitate a truly dead horse.
Topic:
Government, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

93. The European Banking Union

Author:
Pery Bazoti
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The decade of the economic crisis has highlighted in the most apparent way the flaws and weaknesses in the original architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union as well as the need for decisive reforms. In this effort, the European Banking Union constitutes one of the most ambitious projects of the European Union with the intention of establishing a single system of banking supervision and resolution based on a common regulatory framework. The three pillars of the banking union, analysed in the present policy brief- the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism and the European Deposit Insurance Scheme– not only safeguard the banks against future financial crises but also ensure that their potential resolution will not be at the expense of the European taxpayers. Yet, there are also significant challenges that come with the establishment of the banking union; the lack of agreement on a system of risk sharing among the member states has, so far, hindered the creation of the third pillar, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme. Moreover, the new dual role of the ECB, in monetary policy and in banking supervision, and the tendency of banks to buy domestic government debt, raise questions about the efficacy of the European Banking Union under its current design.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Banks, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

94. The WTO's Existential Crisis: How to Salvage Its Ability to Settle Trade Disputes

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott and Euijin Jung
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
US refusal to allow the appointment of new judges (or members) to the World Trade Organization’s Appellate Body—a key component of its renowned dispute settlement system—has pushed the organization into an existential crisis. The Appellate Body no longer has the requisite number of members to hear new cases on appeal. The terms of two of the three remaining members have expired, leaving the WTO without an appeal function. US officials charge that certain Appellate Body decisions on WTO dispute panel rulings have expanded WTO obligations and constrained WTO rights—what trade lawyers call “judicial overreach”—and so they have blocked the appointment of new Appellate Body members until other WTO countries address US complaints. Schott and Jung analyze the WTO cases brought against the United States and find that the problem of judicial overreach seems to surface primarily in a subset of US losses in antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) cases that target specific methods of calculating dumping margins. They warn that disabling the whole appellate system is a disproportionate response to the specific problem. It will weaken enforcement of WTO obligations and undermine prospects for negotiations to update the WTO rulebook, thus corroding the rules-based trading system, one that has been modeled on US law and practice. A better approach would be to exempt AD/CVD cases from appellate review (while still subjecting them to dispute panel rulings). This targeted change in the WTO Appellate Body process, coupled with procedural reforms already advanced in proposals that have been widely supported by WTO members, could mitigate US concerns and allow the Appellate Body to be repopulated.
Topic:
Government, World Trade Organization, Law, Judiciary, and Trade
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

95. Fiscal Policy Options for Japan

Author:
Olivier Blanchard and Takashi Tashiro
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For many years, the Japanese government has promised an eventual return to primary budget surpluses, but it has not delivered on these promises. Its latest goal is to return to primary balance by 2025. Blanchard and Tashiro, however, argue that, in the current economic environment in Japan, primary deficits may be needed for a long time, because they may be the best tool to sustain demand and output, alleviate the burden on monetary policy, and increase future output. What primary deficits are used for, however, is equally important, and the Japanese government should put them to better use. The authors recommend that, given Japan’s aging population, the government should spend on measures aimed at increasing fertility—and by implication population and output growth—which are likely to more than pay for themselves.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

96. Opening Internet Monopolies to Competition with Data Sharing Mandates

Author:
Claudia Biancotti and Paolo Ciocca
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the past few years, it has become apparent that a small number of technology companies have assembled detailed datasets on the characteristics, preferences, and behavior of billions of individuals. This concentration of data is at the root of a worrying power imbalance between dominant internet firms and the rest of society, reflecting negatively on collective security, consumer rights, and competition. Introducing data sharing mandates, or requirements for market leaders to share user data with other firms and academia, would have a positive effect on competition. As data are a key input for artificial intelligence (AI), more widely available information would help spread the benefits of AI through the economy. On the other hand, data sharing could worsen existing risks to consumer privacy and collective security. Policymakers intending to implement a data sharing mandate should carefully evaluate this tradeoff.
Topic:
Security, Government, Science and Technology, Privacy, Internet, Monopoly, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

97. Governance, Education, Trade, Finance, Religion, and Gender: Ekai Kawaguchi’s Notes on 20th Century Tibet

Author:
Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
The politico-governance landscape in 20th century Lhasa oversaw a system of hierarchical government–one in which, the hierarchy was composed of both, clerical and lay departments, each consisting of an equal number of men. The 165 priests belonging to the higher ranks attending to the affairs of the State bore the title “Tse Dung.” The lay officials with corresponding rank and number held the title “Dung Khor.” The most visible distinguishing mark between the priests and laymen was that while the former shaved their hair and wore priestly robes, the latter did not.1 The priestly functionaries of higher ranks were subjected to control by four Grand Secretaries, bearing the title “Tung yk chen mo”, though the real powers were vested in the seniormost priest. Similarly, four “Shabpe” (Premiers) were appointed over the higher lay officials.2 Only one among the four “Shabpe” held precedence in wielding real power, while the other three were his councilors and advisers.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Government, Religion, Governance, Finance, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Tibet

98. Transitional Government in Post-Conflict Yemen

Author:
Rafat Al-Akhali, Osamah Al-Rawhani, and Anthony Biswell
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This policy brief offers recommendations to maximize the effectiveness of governance in post-conflict Yemen – whatever the composition or structure of the government. It presents three case studies on government models previously introduced in Yemen, Tunisia and Lebanon after periods of instability. These case studies offer useful lessons on the challenges, risks and opportunities of forming transitional governments in post-conflict contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Government, Peacekeeping, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:
Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

99. Priorities for Government Policy in Yemen

Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This policy brief outlines recommendations for the immediate priorities of the Government of Yemen, both to achieve quick wins and to prepare the ground for medium and long-term success. These recommendations are the outcomes of in-depth discussions held during the fourth Development Champions Forum convened on December 8-11, 2018, in Amman, Jordan. They are designed to offer Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed and his cabinet a set of practical measures to help the government build on the momentum and increased visibility it achieved in the final quarter of 2018. The immediate priorities recommended by the Development Champions include steps to support the stabilization of the local currency. an area in which tangible progress has already been made. The Champions also urge the government to regularize the payment of public sector salaries and pensions. Another immediate priority for the government should be to take steps to stabilize and transform Aden, the Champions suggest, based on the shared consensus that the southern coastal city could become a model for the rest of Yemen. The Champions emphasized that developing Aden would depend on improving the level of security across the governorate. While recognizing that the government faces immediate challenges that demand attention in Aden and across the country, the Development Champions urge the government to plan and implement procedures to prepare for the country’s medium and long-term future. These strategies should address the root causes of Yemen’s socio-economic instability, and not just its symptoms. Among the most important actions to prepare for long-term priorities is the expansion of the roles and responsibilities of local government authorities, the Champions concluded. During the conflict, decision-making authority has filtered down to the local level and become far more decentralized. The government should build on this new reality to reconfigure the state and its relationship with local government authorities.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Public Sector, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

100. Countering Hybrid Threats: Stronger Role for Civil Society in Post 2020 EaP Roadmap

Author:
Kakha Gogolashvili, Mikayel Hovhannisyan, Elkhan Mehtiyev, Andrei Yahorau, Valeriu Pasa, and Viktor Ohiienko
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The objective of the project, in the framework of which this policy paper was developed, is to promote the wider involvement of civil society in the policy area that can and should benefit from a multi-stakeholder approach through all stages of the policy cycle in the upcoming period in order to maximize the impact of joint actions and activities. The paper has an ambition to advise on how civil society should and could be involved in formulating, implementing and monitoring the future deliverables in the area of hybrid threats in the post-2020 Road Map for the EaP policy, including developing specific deliverables with concrete benchmarks for individual countries in a regional perspective. The paper feeds directly into the debate on the new EaP Road Map and structured consultation opened by the EU institutions, and builds directly on the recommendations from the EaP CSF policy paper "Advancing Eastern Partnership: 23 Civil Society Ideas for the Policy beyond 2020". It will be distributed to its target audience in Brussels, EU member states and EaP countries. Further advocacy and discussion with stakeholders in Brussels is planned during the 11th EaP CSF Annual Assembly on December 6, 2019. The paper is a result of the joint research conducted by a team of experts representing CSOs from all six EaP partner states. The team conducted desk research and held consultations with stakeholders and experts in their respective countries. Each of them contributed to country reports and proposed recommendations for the development of cooperation on prevention and countering hybrid threats throughout the EaP area. The findings of the study covered the comparative analysis of hybrid threats in EaP countries, the response of the governments, cooperation between EU and EaP countries on countering hybrid threats, civil society engagement and, finally, the suggestions on the development of cooperation between EU and EaP partner states. The research resulted in concrete recommendations for the governments of the respective countries, EU institutions and member states and for civil society, which is advised to intensify its engagement in countering hybrid threats and in developing a common response.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia