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61. Governance Reforms in Pakistan's Tribal Areas: The Long Road to Nowhere?

Author:
Joshua T. White and Shuja Ali Malik
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) remain mired in an archaic century-old system of indirect governance that provides space in which militant movements have thrived. President Asif Ali Zardari recently announced the FATA Local Governance Regulation 2012, establishing a system of local councils in the troubled tribal region. Although the regulation is disappointingly vague, and retains the sweeping prerogatives of the central government, it appears to have been driven in part by the army's interest in building civilian governance capacity in conflict-torn areas. The governments of Pakistan and the United States, along with local and international stakeholders, should advocate for continuity of implementation, insist on party-based local council elections, encourage experimentation within the bounds of the regulation, link the new councils to existing development structures, press the government to articulate a longer-term political vision for the FATA, and be realistic about the necessity of the army's active involvement in shaping governance policy in the tribal areas.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Government, Islam, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

62. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:
Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

63. Political Economy and Conflict Dimensions of Afghanistan's Mineral Resources: A Preliminary Exploration

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan has sizable underground mineral resources, which have potential positive economic impacts but also possible downsides—the so-called “resource curse” often involving negative macroeconomic, developmental, fiscal, governance, political and conflict effects. The success of the broader political transition in coming years as well as regional geopolitical factors will have a major influence on prospects for Afghanistan's underground resources. For “mega-resources” such as the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron deposits, the Afghan government has conducted credible tendering to ensure that contracts with foreign companies are on favorable terms for Afghanistan. Good-practice approaches for mega-resources should continue and be further strengthened, but there will probably be further delays in exploitation, and realization of potential will take much time. Exploitation of other largish and medium-sized resources may involve joint ventures with politically-connected Afghan firms and deals with local strongmen, or sometimes criminal networks with linkages to corrupt officials and insurgents. Spreading patronage can reduce short-run conflict risks, but there are risks of corruption, and conflicts could arise over time. For these resources, priorities include transparent contracting and clarity about ownership of companies; setting basic financial parameters for different resources (e.g. royalty rates) to reduce the risk of overly favorable arrangements for extracting entities; and addressing criminal elements and associated corruption. For smaller, concentrated, high-value resources (notably gemstones), informal exploitation using crude techniques is typically combined with illicit export trade, and local strongmen are involved, which can mean periods of stability but also conflicts when bargains are reopened or new actors get involved. The way forward for these resources includes gradually improving and regularizing the framework; setting low royalty rates to encourage formalization of existing activities rather than leasing resources to outsiders; technical assistance to promote more effective extraction; and encouraging processing and value addition within Afghanistan. Finally, further analytical work is required to better understand the political economy and conflict ramifications of mining in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

64. A Diplomatic Milestone for Mindanao?

Author:
Jennifer M. Keister
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
A recent framework agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leaves much yet to do in building peace in Mindanao, but does offer an opportunity for careful progress. Many of the problems that have plagued previous agreements in Mindanao's 40-year conflict still exist. The international community has an opportunity to support progress and avoid a repeat of previous agreements' disappointments. Careful foreign aid policies that empower locals and do not foster competition can be critical in building peace in Mindanao.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

65. The Diversity of Truth Commissions and Commissions of Inquiry

Author:
Evelyne Schmid
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Over the past several decades, dozens of countries have established truth commissions and other bodies to investigate mass atrocities or systematic human rights abuse. Lessons learned from past truth-finding processes are invaluable to help address the legacies of human rights violations in countries transitioning to democratic regimes in the Middle East and North Africa and elsewhere. Truth commissions aim to uncover and acknowledge abuses from the past by recognizing the suffering of victims and making recommendations to prevent a recurrence of violence in the future. When convening authorities establish a truth commission, they need to select a process to choose the commission's membership, decide on the subject matter and a deadline for the work it will do as well as its legal powers, its duration and the extent to which its work is public. USIP has established a Truth Commissions Digital Collection (http://www.usip.org/publications/truth-commission-digital-collection) that provides summaries and vital statistics of 41 past commissions from 35 countries, along with copies of most of their legal charters and final reports. Each commission has a dedicated page along with information on subsequent developments, such as reforms, prosecutions and reparations to victims. The Truth Commissions Digital Collection is a resource for researchers and implementers seeking to learn and apply lessons from the past to make current “truth processes” more effective.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Genocide, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Torture
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

66. Haitian Women: The Centerposts of Reconstructing Haiti

Author:
Robert Maguire
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Women are Haiti's 'potomitan' (centerposts), playing pivotal roles in matters of family, education, health, commerce and the economy, and agriculture. Gender-based violence has been and continues to be a very real threat to the security and well-being of Haitian women and their families. Deficient access to education and healthcare, and misguided agricultural policies, have exacerbated women's burdens. Improved social, economic and political empowerment of women is vital to rebuilding Haiti.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economics, Education, Gender Issues, and Health
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

67. The Koran Desecration and the Role of Religion in Conflict

Author:
Qamar ul Huda
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent desecration of the Koran and Islamic writings caused violent unrest in Afghanistan and raises concerns about essential training in culture and religion for U.S. personnel. Basic knowledge of religious actors and their roles in peacebuilding and conflict management is still barely factored in by policymakers and advisers to U.S. government. There needs more effort by local, regional, and international religious leaders to promote nonviolent and tolerant reactions even in midst of incendiary events. An assessment is needed to evaluate whether efforts at promoting inter-cultural sensitivity are working or not, and identifying processes for mitigating tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

68. Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier

Author:
Amanda Mayoral
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Climate change can be a conflict multiplying mechanism as it fosters unforeseen conflicts and reinforces existing ones. While there are many causes of conflict, climate change can be a trigger in the sequence. Climate effects that constrain resources are unequally distributed to those countries already in the most desperate situations. Coupled with rising population growth, these events are likely to heighten poverty in the future if no action is taken. Adaptive development must be sustainable to bridge existing shortfalls, must plan for anticipated effects, and provide for the longer-term picture. More developed and higher carbon-emitting states should engage in mitigation efforts to reduce these effects. Given that one country will feel the consequences of environmental destruction sown by another, the costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation should be weighed from a global perspective as the capacity of countries to respond varies. Failure to mitigate and adapt to climate effects can raise the likelihood of violent conflict.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Famine

69. Fixing Pakistan's Civil-Military Imbalance: A Dangerous Temptation

Author:
Moeed Yusuf
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Out of the proposed alternatives for dealing with Pakistan discussed in Washington, one that seems to have gained some traction calls for aggressively playing up Pakistan's civil-military divide by propping up civilians while dealing harshly with the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). While normatively attractive, the approach to deal with Pakistan as two Pakistans is unworkable. It grossly exaggerates the U.S.'s capacity to affect institutional change in Pakistan and fundamentally misunderstands what underpins the civil-military dynamic. In reality, any attempt by the U.S. to actively exploit this internal disconnect is likely to end up strengthening right wing rhetoric in Pakistan, provide more space for security-centric policies, and further alienate the Pakistani people from the U.S. A more prudent approach would be one that limits itself to targeted interventions in areas truly at the heart of the civil-military dichotomy and that would resonate positively with the Pakistani people: by continuing to help improve civilian governance performance and by providing regional security assurances to Pakistan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Washington

70. Paying for Afghanistan's Security Forces During Transition: Issues for Chicago and Beyond

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This report reflects the author's research interests and several publications on security sector reform from a financial and development perspective. It is intended to lay out key issues and trade-offs in this area, and brings in concepts and tools of public financial management which are applicable to the security sector. The views expressed in this brief do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Institute of Peace, which does not take policy positions.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Chicago

71. Myths and Misconceptions in the Afghan Transition

Author:
Noah Coburn and Shahmahmood Miakhel
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The coming period of transition to Afghan control of national security will require greater cooperation and understanding between all parties. Cooperation between the international community, the Afghan government and local communities is currently being undermined by a series of myths and assumptions which stem from the unstable conditions, a perceived lack of shared interests and a handful of highly publicized incidents. The international community often underestimates local capacity for governance in Afghanistan and ignores the success that Afghanistan did have with self-rule for much of the 20th century. Local Afghan communities are skeptical of the aims of both counterinsurgency and state-building measures, as projects, such as internationally sponsored elections, have failed to yield anticipated results despite the continued presence of international troops. There is an urgent need to rethink some of the assumptions on both sides of the table which threaten to undermine the long-term prospects for peace in Afghanistan.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

72. Providing Justice in Haiti

Author:
Robert Maguire
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In spite of the Haitian government's stated priority of improving rule of law, a Haitian court's decision not to prosecute former dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier for crimes against humanity has cast doubt on the sincerity of that commitment. The failings of Haiti's judicial system are well-known, but historically reform efforts have been ineffective. Improved provision of justice is critical for the creation of conditions for stability and the eventual withdrawal of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). Modernizing Haiti's antiquated legal and penal codes are an essential component of rule of law reform. Some progress is being made toward this end. A greater emphasis is needed on coordinating efforts among international donors and improving interaction with Haitian counterparts to achieve progress on judicial reform.
Topic:
Crime, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Law
Political Geography:
United Nations, Caribbean, and Haiti

73. Atrocity Prevention through Persuasion and Deterrence

Author:
Jonas Claes
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Political missions can be described as multilateral teams of primarily civilian experts that rely largely on political persuasion to find a nonviolent way out of crises. Preventive deployments are defensive military missions primarily aimed at deterring state or non-state actors from initiating undesired actions. Both political missions and preventive deployments are traditionally seen as conflict management tools used by international or regional organizations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Crime, Genocide, and Human Rights

74. The PTI and Pakistan's Changing Political Landscape

Author:
Stephanie Flamenbaum
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
As the Pakistani electoral cycle gears up for an election, the country's traditional political stakeholders face a change in the tenor of political discourse and a more robust electoral field due to the recent rise in popular support for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), or Pakistan Movement for Justice, helmed by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

75. Drugs in Afghanistan—A Forgotten Issue?

Author:
William Byrd and David Mansfield
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Opium will continue to be an important part of the Afghan landscape—with political and security as well as economic ramifications. The ongoing security transition (2011-2014) will be accompanied by greater risks to Afghani­stan's polity, security and economy from the illicit drug industry—including through likely further increases in opium production.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Terrorism, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

76. Mutual Accountability: Lessons and Prospects for Afghanistan Post-Tokyo

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
At the Tokyo conference on July 8, donors committed to provide massive civilian aid to Afghanistan and improve aid effectiveness, while the Afghan government committed to a number of governance and political benchmarks. The outcome at Tokyo exceeded expectations, but a review of Afghan and international experience suggests that implementing the Tokyo mutual accountability framework will be a major challenge. The multiplicity of donors could weaken coherence around targets and enforcing benchmarks, and undermine the accountability of the international community for overall funding levels. Uncertain political and security prospects raise doubts about the government's ability to meet its commitments, and political will for needed reforms understandably may decline as security transition proceeds and the next election cycle approaches. It is doubtful whether major political issues can be handled through an articulated mutual accountability framework with benchmarks and associated financial incentives. The civilian aid figure agreed upon at Tokyo ($16 billion over four years) is ambitious and exceeded expectations; if the international community falls short, this could be used to justify the Afghan government failing to achieve its benchmarks. Finally, given past experience there are doubts about how well the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) process (mandated to oversee implementation), and the series of further high-level meetings agreed at Tokyo, will work.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

77. Haiti: Turning the Page?

Author:
Robert Maguire
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Progress toward a better Haiti during President Michel Martelly's first year was undermined by a multitude of political crises.Confirmation of a new prime minister by Haiti's parliament provides an opportunity to rectify previous missteps and begin moving Haiti toward a peaceful and prosperous future. An important indicator of the new prime minister's agenda for improving conditions among Haiti's impoverished majority will be the success of new social programs.Increased foreign direct investment and augmented domestic revenue—the latter linked to an anti-corruption campaign—are important components of the new prime minister's strategy to revitalize Haiti's economy and society.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Natural Disasters, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Caribbean

78. Business and Human Rights: An Issue Whose Time Has Come

Author:
Jill Shankleman and Hannah Clayton
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Business activities in fragile and conflict-affected regions could adversely impact the human rights of host populations in diverse ways, and could trigger or sustain violent conflict. The international “Protect, Respect and Remedy Framework on Business and Human Rights” could help businesses avoid infringing on the human rights of others and should address adverse human rights impacts when they occur. This framework would complement (and not replace) exiting initiatives like the U.N. Global Compact, IFC Performance Standards and OECD Guidelines. It provides a human rights lens that does not treat communities as 'vulnerable' or 'needy,' but as viable partners with rights. Implementation of the framework (and other voluntary standards) will always be fraught with difficulty. However, companies could become more amenable if they discover that compli­ance could enhance risk management and improve productivity. Coordination, communication and accountability are vital for credible and effective imple­mentation of the framework. Key steps have been identified to help corporations comply.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United Nations

79. Avoiding Meeting Fatigue: How to make the numerous international meetings on Afghanistan more effective

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The numerous high-profile international meetings on Afghanistan since 2001 have helped keep attention focused on Afghanistan, elicit financial support, give a “seat at the table” to all partners, generate good strategic documents, and provide a forum for the Afghan government. However, the meetings often have raised excessive expectations; lacked meaningful follow-up; undermined their own objectives; prioritized diplomacy over substance; focused more on donors' issues than Afghan problems; oriented the Afghan government toward donors; diverted resources toward meetings; resulted in meeting fatigue; and sometimes seemingly substituted for action. These meetings can be made more effective by: (1) keeping to realistic expectations; (2) not expecting meetings to substitute for difficult decisions and actions; (3) having substantive, disciplined agendas and avoiding co-optation by diplomatic priorities; (4) matching objectives with the issue(s) the meeting is supposed to address; (5) ensuring quality background work; (6) focusing follow-up on key areas and a few simple, monitorable benchmarks; and (7) keep­ing the number and frequency of meetings manageable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

80. Using Entrepreneurship to Promote Stability in Fragile Regions

Author:
Raymond Gilpin and Steven Koltai
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Described as the productive combination of innovation, initiative, risk and capital, entrepreneurship could provide a crucial underpinning for stability in conflict-affected regions via job creation and improved human security. State building initiatives regularly tout entrepreneurship as an integral part of broader economic development, political or security strategies but seldom explain the thinking behind purported causal linkages. The Six + Six model offers a targeted and comprehensive strategy to promote entrepreneurship in conflict-affected states. It provides a dynamic alternative to aid-based strategies. Given the growing success of impact investing, it is imperative for bilateral and multilateral development agencies to help facilitate such investment by co-investing and seeding further impact investing. Entrepreneurs in fragile regions urgently need support in the form of enabling environments and innovative approaches that reward their creativity and risk-taking. To bolster entrepreneurs' chances for success, policymakers should consider: redirecting foreign assistance; re-focusing private sector development interventions; re-conceptualizing state building; and re-valuing individuals.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Economics, Markets, Poverty, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment