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152. Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones as a New Deterrent?
- Author:
- Janene Sawers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Deterrence is an outdated approach to the threat of nuclear weapons and does not meet the security needs of the post-Cold War era. Nuclear weapon-free states can establish a new regional security framework through the strengthening of existing and creation of new Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones (NWFZs). These zones operate under the assumption that more nuclear weapons make the world inherently less safe and demonstrate that countries do not need nuclear weapons to deter attack.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
153. Western Sahara: The Failure of "Negotiations without Preconditions"
- Author:
- Anna Theofilopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The ongoing effort to use negotiations without preconditions to resolve the conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front over Western Sahara has not produced results. The April 6, 2010 report of the United Nations secretary-general to the U.N. Security Council admits that there has been no movement on the core substantive issues.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Morocco
154. Rebuilding Afghanistan's Political Immunity
- Author:
- Shahmahmood Miakhel and Whit Mason
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is an exceptionally fissiparous country, riven by innumerable conflicts over scarce resources and longstanding enmities between neighboring groups. Traditionally, such disputes have been managed by ad hoc groups of elders, known as jirgas or shuras. In the past 30 years, the stature and security of the jirga system and of the elders themselves have been challenged and undermined by all the parties contending for power, including the state itself. In the context of weak state institutions, a reinvigorated system of jirgas could make a valuable contribution to resolving the disputes that currently feed the insurgency and make Afghanistan vulnerable to exploitation by groups that destabilize the country and the region, and threaten the West. To explore what might be done to create an enabling environment for jirga-like bodies, USIP is piloting Dispute Resolution Commissions in insurgency-affected provinces, and, on the basis of this experience, will recommend principles and actions for a larger-scale program of support.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
155. A New Kind of Balkans Drama
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Balkans face more trouble in Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina unless the United States and European Union take dramatic steps to get both back on track towards EU membership. In Bosnia, the international community needs to reconstitute itself as well as support an effort to reform the country's constitution. In Kosovo, Pristina and Belgrade need to break through the barriers to direct communication and begin discussions on a wide range of issues. This brief proposes specific diplomatic measures to meet these needs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans
156. Cooperation and Tension in Regional and Global Infectious Disease Surveillance
- Author:
- Leonard S. Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Globalization of infectious disease transmission has led to international and regional initiatives to improve surveillance and response. The World Health Organization's revised International Health Regulations provide a more robust legal framework for outbreak investigations. New regional networks are strengthening collaborative approaches to prevention of pandemics even in parts of the world where political tensions usually run high. To fulfill the promise of these new mechanisms, the United States should integrate capacity development for disease surveillance into its global health strategy, including providing greater investment in laboratories, training and technical assistance for low-income countries. Effective international cooperation has not extended to creating a system for equitable distribution of vaccines, resulting in vast disparities in availability of vaccines between richer and poorer countries. As a result, political tensions between wealthy and low-income countries have increased. Unless inequity is addressed, global health security will not advance.
- Topic:
- Globalization and World Health Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
157. Fighting Corruption in Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Robert Perito and Madeline Kristoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Corruption in the security sector damages society's trust in the government. Donors must coordinate on anti-corruption programs and make sure not to engage in corruption themselves. Corruption is highly political and context specific. Fighting both high and low-levels of corruption should be a priority in security sector reform.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Political Power Sharing
158. Haiti: A Forward Look
- Author:
- Robert M. Perito
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Five months after Haiti's January 12th earthquake, the situation on the ground remains critical. With the arrival of hurricane season, the failure to provide adequate shelter and instill hope for a better future threatens stability. Donor pledges of more than $5 billion for assistance have not translated into visible progress, fueling discontent and raising growing concern among Haitians about their government's electiveness. Haiti's government has tried to exert leadership in recovery operations despite the destruction of government buildings, the death of nearly 25 percent of the civil service personnel and the massive dislocations caused by the earthquake. The Haitian government has also begun preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2010. The combination of faltering recovery at a time of national elections could provoke unrest.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
159. Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over
- Author:
- Tara Nesvaderani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran
160. Lebanon's Evolving Relationship with Syria: Back to the Future or Turning a New Page?
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon's outreach to Syria is motivated by significant shifts in the regional political landscape, particularly Syria's renewed regional and global influence. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri appears to have made a strategic decision that rapprochement with Syria is in Lebanon's best interest, offering the greatest chance for stability and resolution of a number of outstanding bilateral issues including greater guarantees for Lebanese sovereignty. Syria's renewed influence in Lebanon comes in a variety of forms, but its alliance with Hezbollah is the most potent trajectory of its power and influence. It is too early to determine whether this shift in relations marks a return of Syrian predominance in Lebanon, or signals a new page in the bilateral relationship. Much will depend on how Syria and Lebanon as well as external players—especially the U.S. and France—contend with the inherent challenges and opportunities that accompany evolving Syrian-Lebanese ties. The establishment of Lebanese-Syrian diplomatic ties presents the United States with an important opportunity to help foster normal relations between the neighboring countries, particularly the long-sought goal of protecting Lebanese sovereignty. Washington should move forward with dispatching an ambassador to Damascus as part of a broader engagement with Syria. Establishment of high-level diplomatic channels in Syria will allow the United States to leverage its influence more directly and effectively to ensure that Syria moves forward on border demarcation with Lebanon and other measures to help bolster Lebanese sovereignty.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Lebanon and Syria
161. The Premiership
- Author:
- Sean Kane
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The institution of Iraq's prime minister has evolved since the previous national government was formed in 2006. The success of incumbent Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in building an independent power base around the office and the diminishing U.S. presence in Iraq have transformed the perception and stature of Iraq's chief executive. This evolution of the position helps to explain why negotiations over the government's formation have struggled to move beyond the top post to discuss other assignments and the new government's agenda. The talks are not just about agreeing on a prime minister in the context of inconclusive, close election results, and competing regional influences; these talks are trying to define the role of the premiership and possible checks on its power. Understanding the debate on possible checks and balances is important because of its potential ramifications for Iraq's democratic experiment, and also because agreement on this issue might pave the way for the nomination of a prime minister.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
162. Can Economic Reform Open a Peaceful Path to Ending Burma's Isolation? (Burmese edition)
- Author:
- Raymond Gilpin and Lex Rieffel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- After decades of domestic conflict, military rule and authoritarian governance, Burma's economy could provide a viable entry point for effective international assistance to promote peace. Doing so would require a detailed understanding of the country's complex and evolving political economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Asia
163. Iraq is Spinning Its Wheels, But in the Right Direction
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The political situation in Baghdad is still blocked almost four months after the national elections signaled change while denying any one of the four main coalitions a clear mandate to govern. The complications are real, but so too is a political culture that is increasingly appealing to democratic norms and factors to sort out the difficulties.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
164. International Engagement with Somalia
- Author:
- Stephanie Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, supported by the U.S, had the unintentional consequence of fueling splinter insurgent groups including Al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam. Currently Somalia faces a humanitarian crisis with 3.6 million people displaced. Countering the insurgency and alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Somalia demands a creative rethinking of international policy. While the 2008 Dijbouti Accord created a more inclusive Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the international community must weigh whether continued support for the TFG will bring real progress in governance or if it will strengthen popular support for the insurgency. If the international community sees support for the TFG as beneficial, they could consider policies including: Flooding Somalia with development aid and investing in civil society; Expanding the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission to include representation from other Muslim countries; Finding creative solutions for inter-Somali governance and reconciliation. If the international community calculates that support for the TFG is not beneficial because it will only fuel the insurgency, they should consider a policy of "constructive disengagement," withdrawing support from the TFG and the AU peacekeeping mission, while simultaneously investing in local and regional development projects.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Terrorism, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, Ethiopia, and Somalia
165. Iraqi Voices Entering 2010
- Author:
- Rusty Barber and William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Successful attacks on key government buildings underscore worries about whether Iraqis can manage their own security. They mask, however, something new in Iraqi society: an emerging vox populi that found potent expression in provincial elections last January, despite the odds. As national elections approach in March, political leaders are realizing that they ignore this growing voice at their peril. Aware that American attention is shifting towards other problems at home and abroad, Iraqis are nervously contemplating how much U.S. support they can expect going forward in their fragile experiment in democratic governance. The U.S. role in helping Iraqis prepare for national elections has been crucial and largely welcome—it should continue through the transition to a new government. Successful complete withdrawal by 2012 depends on an Iraqi government that is responsive to its people’s basic needs and capable of evolving peacefully via fair elections. Longer term, there are several critical areas on which a distracted and resource stretched America should focus. These include intensifying efforts to help Arabs and Kurds resolve disputes and forestall the need for an extended U.S. military presence in northern Iraq. Helping Iraq protect its borders – a vulnerability highlighted by Iran’s recent incursion—and nudging the Gulf Arab states to more actively engage Iraq as an emerging partner in regional security and economic structures will also be key to stability inside and beyond Iraq’s borders. If water is the “new oil” in terms of its resource value and potential to create conflict, that future is now playing out in Iraq. Shortages and poor quality are already causing serious health and economic problems, displacement and raising tensions with Iraq’s neighbors. The U.S. can help here on both the diplomatic and technical sides of the issue.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
166. Prospects for Haiti's New Government
- Author:
- Robert Maguire
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Elevation of Haiti's planning minister to the post of prime minister offers the prospect for continuity in development policies and programs that were identified at the international donors conference held in April 2009. Greater attention to rural and community development and to police and judicial reform is essential in assisting Haiti to meet poverty alleviation and economic growth goals and to consolidate gains in security. The new prime minister will be challenged by Haiti's array of deeply-rooted problems and by the ticking clock of President Rene Preval's final year in office. The new government will have to move quickly to institute reforms before political maneuvering related to the presidential election takes over. Immediate, robust international engagement in Haiti's current electoral process is critically required following a decision by the provisional election commission to ban several political parties.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
167. Congress and Parliaments in Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Robert M. Perito
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This report offers a set of general and country-specific findings and recommendations to assist the Obama administration in its efforts to tackle escalating security challenges while sustaining diplomatic, institutional and economic support for democracy and human rights in the Greater Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
168. Correcting America's Image Problem in Pakistan
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Despite receiving over $15 billion in U.S. aid since 9/11, perceptions of America in Pakistan remain acutely negative. If Pakistanis continue to be opposed to U.S. policies, the Pakistani government will not be able to deliver on its promises, and U.S. initiatives in Pakistan will not produce desired outcomes. American and Pakistani governments have forged a rather opaque relationship which has not helped to cultivate popular support for policies across Pakistan. Instead, it has fostered an anti- U.S. sentiment in Pakistan that increasingly puts pressure on the government in Islamabad. U.S. policy must be fundamentally changed to turn around the anti-American outlook among Pakistanis. In order to do so, the official relationship needs to be more transparent; frequency of visits by U.S. officials ought to be reconsidered; 'image correcting aid' should be provided in addition to the long-term assistance; Pakistani citizens should be engaged through constant dialogue and debate on U.S.-Pakistan relations; and American and Pakistani officials should remain sensitive about the internal impact of their public statements and actions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Imperialism, Mass Media, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, America, and South Asia
169. Conflict Prevention: Principles, Policies and Practice
- Author:
- Lawrence Woocher, Jonas Claes, and Abiodun Williams
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Conflict prevention is widely endorsed in principle—including in the 2010 U.S. National Security Strategy—but too rarely put into serious practice. It is thus important to narrow the gap between rhetoric and action in preventing violent conflicts. The interest of elites in exploiting ethnic differences for political gains, the absence of well-established mechanisms for prevention in certain regions, and the destabilizing role of external meddling continue to impede the development of effective prevention strategies. Yet, much progress has been made in the field of conflict prevention, both at the normative and the operational levels. As a crucial actor in conflict prevention, the United States should work with others to forge a consistent approach to countries at risk, urge countries to deal with arbitrary borders through negotiation rather than violence, and support greater cooperation between regional organizations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Education, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- United States
170. Flooding Challenges Pakistan's Government and the International Community
- Author:
- Mary Hope Schwoebel and Altaf Ullah Khan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The flooding and associated devastation that have battered Pakistan since late July 2010 present yet another series of challenges to its government, already contending with violence from extremist groups. The international community would do well to assist the Pakistani government in responding effectively to these challenges. Natural disasters are social as well as environmental events. The poor and marginalized members of society suffer the most. Marginalization is one of the root causes of violence and militancy in Pakistan. As the government of Pakistan responds to the suffering of its people and the damage to the environment and infrastructure, it should seek to provide relief and recovery assistance in ways that contribute to ameliorating marginalization. Disaster managers should ensure that urgent humanitarian demands do not miss the opportunity to achieve relief and recovery in ways that contribute to good governance, sustainable development and stable peace.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
171. The Civil Society-Military Relationship in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Lisa Schirch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The intense challenge of coordinating government civilians with military actors in the International Security Assistance Forces' Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan has inhibited development of military relationships with civil society. The counterinsurgency strategy of “shape, clear, hold, build” invites civil society organizations (CSOs) to play key roles in the final “build” stage at the operational level. Yet many CSOs resist “coordination” in a mission and strategy different from their own. CSOs seek greater policy dialogue and “communication” with high-level ISAF decision makers, particularly during planning stages. An ongoing, high-level forum for civil society-military policy dialogue could help address tensions, provide a mechanism for CSOs to share their conflict assessments, and explore areas for possible collaboration such as in security sector reform.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Indonesia
172. The ICJ's Advisory Opinion on Kosovo
- Author:
- Richard Caplan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On July 22, 2010, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued its advisory opinion on Kosovo's declaration of independence of February 17, 2008, observing that the declaration was not in violation of international law. The Court's opinion may facilitate further recognitions of Kosovo but thus far there has been no significant increase in the number of countries extending recognition. Although the Court's opinion was drafted with the specific and unique circumstances of the Kosovo case in mind, it has been followed with interest by separatist parties engaged in contested territorial struggles elsewhere around the world. Separatists are likely also to be watching with interest the next steps that may be taken with regard to Kosovo in the wake of the ICJ's advisory opinion, especially any boundary adjustments that may be proposed and agreed upon between the Serbian and Kosovar governments.
- Topic:
- International Law and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo and Balkans
173. Cautious Optimism for Peace in Colombia
- Author:
- Virginia M. Bouvier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The new Colombian administration that took office in early August faces a unique set of peacemaking challenges and opportunities related to the country's internal armed conflict. Following a spate of tensions with neighboring countries regarding the presence of illegal armed groups along Colombia's border areas, newly-inaugurated President Juan Manuel Santos moved quickly to create new mechanisms with his neighbors to ensure that contentious regional issues are addressed before they reach the boiling point. In a surprising video released just before the president-elect was inaugurated, the top leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces-People's Army (FARC-EP), called on Santos to enter a dialogue without preconditions, thereby opening a new window of opportunities to pursue peace. President Santos responded that “the door to dialogue is not locked,” insisting however that the guerrillas must lay down their weapons and meet a series of other pre-conditions before talks could occur. Former mediators differ over whether such preconditions will pose an obstacle to talks. In the final days of August, Brazil and Ecuador rejected a FARC-EP request for meeting with the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to discuss a political solution to Colombia's conflict. UNASUR leaders said they would not engage in mediating the conflict in the absence of an express invitation from the Colombian government. The Colombian government has rejected UNASUR mediation and underscored its preference to negotiate directly with the FARC-EP once the latter meets the government's preconditions. Concrete good faith efforts—both public and private—will be required from the government and the guerrillas to build confidence, address the legacy of distrust created by decades of violence and set the stage for future talks.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, and Latin America
174. Afghanistan: Conditions-Based Redeployment
- Author:
- William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama's policy of a conditions-based redeployment in Afghanistan starting in July 2011 leaves him a lot of flexibility. The administration will likely decide to maintain the troop numbers in Afghanistan near the surge level next year, pending another review.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
175. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Matt Waldman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India
176. Iran's Subsidies Conundrum
- Author:
- Semira Nikou
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iran has subsidized petroleum products, basic foodstuffs, medical goods and utilities since 1980, first to manage hardships during the eight-year war with Iraq, and then to prevent political and economic challenges after the war. Since the 1990s, three presidents have tried to cut back subsidies that are now estimated to cost Iran between $70 billion and $100 billion annually. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won parliamentary approval for a controversial plan to phase out subsides by 2015. Under the plan, universal price controls are to be replaced with small cash payments to families and direct support of industries. Some economists are concerned that lifting price controls will trigger dramatic rises in inflation and unemployment. The cutbacks come at a time the government already faces serious economic troubles and tougher international sanctions. For the public, the change is likely to produce the most economic disruption since the revolution. Economic reforms have triggered unrest in the past. If reform succeeds, however, the program could help reduce waste, shrink state outlays and enhance efficiency and productivity.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
177. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change
- Author:
- Tara Nesvaderani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
178. Many Shuras Do Not a Government Make: International Community Engagement with Local Councils in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Noah Coburn and Shahmahmood Miakhel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The need to engage local Afghan leaders and support community decision making has recently been promoted as a key element of both development and counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan. The resulting proliferation of community councils—commonly called shuras or jirgas— sponsored by different actors within the Afghan government and international community has decreased the effectiveness of local governance and rule of law in many places. Traditional Afghan dispute resolution and governance bodies are most effective when they are formed by local residents and genuinely reflect the interests of the community. Their legitimacy decreases if international or government sponsors create shuras or jirgas to promote their own interests. This paradox creates a dilemma for programs designed to foster good governance: how to promote community self-rule that reflects traditional values and mechanisms and that develop locally, while adhering to rigid counterinsurgency and development timelines and strategies. These so-called 'traditional' political structures have an important place in local governance in Afghanistan, but the international community should not assume that such bodies fairly represent their respective communities. Rather, sound understanding of local dynamics and in-depth consultation with local government actors and community leaders are necessary to help ensure that such bodies are represented and thus, legitimate within the community. A more coherent, sustainable vision of long-term local governance and coordinated strategies between the Afghan government and international forces is necessary to bring both stability and development to Afghanistan. In particular, this Peace Brief supports the attempts to create a coherent long-term goal of local governance based on legitimate local actors, most likely selected through elections.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
179. Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa
- Author:
- Jon Temin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent—but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
180. Kosovo: The Next Steps
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Kosovo should not be allowed to stagnate as a "frozen conflict." There are well-established principles that can provide a basis for moving forward. Talks between Belgrade and Pristina on a framework for managing their relationship on practical issues are both possible and necessary, even if they do not happen right away. The time available should be used for careful preparations, especially by Pristina. As Belgrade and Moscow present serious challenges, a joint EU/U.S. effort has the best prospects for success to prevent a "frozen conflict."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Moscow, and Balkans
181. Zimbabwe: Power-Sharing Deal Under Stress
- Author:
- Michael Bratton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Zimbabwe's coalition government is increasingly dysfunctional, mainly due to a defeated incumbent ruler's unwillingness to surrender real executive authority to a popular opposition. The latest dispute over the president's unilateral exercise of appointment powers threatens to escalate into a constitutional crisis that seems likely to be resolved only through fresh elections. International actors can help to bring Zimbabwe's transition to a peaceful and democratic conclusion by guaranteeing power sharing, supervising elections, and maintaining targeted sanctions.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
182. When Is International Peacemaking Illegal? Implications of the 2010 Supreme Court Decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project
- Author:
- Stephanie Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The June 21st Supreme Court decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project affirmed the constitutionality of the material support statue which makes it illegal for U.S. citizens and organizations to provide material support, including expert advice or assistance, service or personnel, to designated terrorist organizations regardless of whether the support is intended to promote nonviolence and peace. The material support law and the process of listing terrorist groups provides the U.S. government with an enhanced legal structure to arrest alleged terrorists and prevent terrorist acts. However, it is unclear that the process is effective in practice or that enhancing the government's legal power to prevent acts of terrorism outweighs the unintentional consequences of prohibiting nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from working on the front lines of conflict zones to promote conflict resolution. Looking to the future, NGOs can work with the State Department and Congress to find ways to allow peacebuilding and humanitarian organizations to continue their operations legally, while also not threatening national security.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- United States
183. Defying Expectations: Polio Vaccination Programs Amid Political and Armed Conflict
- Author:
- Leonard S. Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Defying expectations, successful polio vaccination campaigns have taken place in well over two dozen armed conflicts, and continue today. Polio vaccination campaigns amid war have often succeeded in gaining the cooperation of anti-government forces such as Sendero Luminoso in Peru, multiple rebel groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Diplomatic means have also been employed to overcome severe political obstacles to such campaigns, even when the campaigns have become a flashpoint in places of political turmoil. Such campaigns face many challenges because vaccinators need to reach all villages without threats to their own lives or the programs' implementation. They require security for safe passage for immunizations and sometimes temporary cease-fires. The many successes of vaccination campaigns can be attributed to the programs' exclusive focus on the immunization needs of children; the use of interlocutors who are credible because they demonstrate neutrality; transparent discussions with opposition groups about the reasons for the campaigns; a role for opposition groups in facilitating the campaigns; limits on the number of days vaccinations take place; and the absence of any strategic or political goals for the effort beyond polio eradication.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Taliban, and Peru
184. MINURCAT Withdrawal: The Risks to Civilian Protection and Humanitarian Assistance in Eastern Chad
- Author:
- Erin A. Weir
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Chad hosts over 249,000 refugees from the Darfur conflict and 168,000 internally displaced persons who were relocated after instability caused by Chadian rebel groups. The U.N. Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad has been reduced to 1,900 as of October 15, 2010. It will withdraw completely by December 31, 2010. There are concerns about the capacity of the Chadian security forces to adequately protect the population.The government of Chad and the international community must work to ensure the security of the population and humanitarian workers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United Nations
185. Stabilizing Chad: Security, Governance and Development Challenges
- Author:
- Dorina Bekoe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On May 20, 2010, USIP and the International Peace Institute brought together some of Chad's national, regional and international stakeholders to discuss Chad's democratization, the regional security dynamics and the management of the oil sector.Electoral reform, as called for in Chad's 2007 "August 13 Political Agreement," has been poorly implemented, endangering the credibility of the upcoming February legislative elections. Improvements in regional security prompted the Chadian government to request the departure of the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT), which was charged with securing and providing humanitarian relief along the Chad-Central African Republic border. However, many question if Chadian forces can fill the security gap. Oil exports have significantly increased Chad's budget, with most of these gains being invested in the military. The improved regional security provides an opportunity to invest in sectors such as education, health care, and development, which have been neglected.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa
186. Transparency is the Key to Legitimate Afghan Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Scott Worden
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On September 18, Afghanistan held its second parliamentary elections since the fall of the Taliban. Like last year's vote, these elections were marked by high levels of violence, low turnout and widespread reports of fraud.Despite the challenges, however, Afghans across the country defied Taliban threats and overcame problems with the electoral administration to signal their support for the democratic process. Participation appeared higher among the youth demographic, which is a promising sign for the future of democratic processes in Afghanistan. It is still too early to tell whether the quality of the elections was better than the flawed 2009 process, but the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has improved its procedures and transparency both before and after the elections, and has so far helped to restore the credibility of the institution as a neutral administrator of the electoral process. Meanwhile, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is again under-resourced, has had little time to establish and train the Provincial Electoral Complaints Commissions (PECCs) that will be adjudicating the 4,200 election day complaints, and has yet to make public its decisions regarding the campaign or polling complaints.The ultimate success of the 2010 elections depends less on the level of fraud that was committed on election day-which was bound to be high-and more on the way in which the fraud is handled by the IEC and ECC. If they are transparent and honest about the problems, and take responsible corrective action, then the elections can be considered a partial success despite its flaws.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
187. Persistent Challenges to Long-Term Peace in Côte d'Ivoire
- Author:
- Dorina A. Bekoe and Andrea Bartoli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The announcement that 429,000 fraudulent or possibly foreign names were on the voters registry halted the preparations for already delayed 2009 presidential election and revived the divisive discussion of citizenship and identity in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivoirité) The stalled electoral process highlighted unresolved issues such as the failed demobilization and disarmament processes and the marginalization of civil society from the implementation of the 2007 Ouagadougou Peace Agreement. In April 2010, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Community of Sant'Egidio and George Mason University's Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution brought key leaders of Ivorian civil society and the religious community to Washington, D.C. to develop an approach for resolving the present political impasse and to actively participate in the peace process. The April meeting resulted in the Washington Appeal, which urges Ivoirians to tolerate ethnic and political diversity, reduce the tensions around elections, identify longstanding grievances, and expand the role of civil society in the peace process.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa
188. Humanitarian Space Shrinking for Health Program Delivery in Afghanistan and Pakistan
- Author:
- Leonard S. Rubenstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In Afghanistan and Pakistan, humanitarian space has shrunk as the Taliban and other insurgent groups have stepped up attacks on civilians, especially international aid workers, contractors and local leaders. Health programs continue to operate, but the ability of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to recruit and retain staff and to travel outside Kabul has suffered. The United Nations, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), and other groups have sought to persuade the Taliban and other armed groups not to impede or interfere with humanitarian aid activities. These efforts have had some success where the aid is administered by Afghans, but they have not limited attacks on international staff, who along with all foreigners, remain at high risk of attack. Many NGOs act as implementing partners in the government's strategy to implement a comprehensive primary care system in Afghanistan under the direction of the Ministry of Public Health. They have managed to maintain those services with local staff despite their association with the government of Afghanistan, so long as they operate with impartiality and community engagement. The vulnerability of their staff to attack appears to be a product of generalized insecurity or the presence of foreign aid workers, rather than a result of collaboration with the Ministry.NGOs report that military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and military involvement in the medical sector, have contributed to the shrinkage of humanitarian space. The military's provision of health services through Provincial Reconstruction Teams and other mechanisms, though well-intended, sometimes sows confusion about the allegiances of U.S. and other Western aid workers and creates tensions with humanitarian principles the agencies rely on to operate in conflict environments. The conduct of the Afghanistan National Army and Police and the Pakistan military in entering facilities to gain access to arrest insurgents or gather information also leads to greater insecurity for NGO personnel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Non-Governmental Organization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Afghanistan
189. Crime, Politics and Violence in Post- Earthquake Haiti
- Author:
- Louis-Alexandre Berg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Crime and violence are on the rise in Port-au-Prince due to prisoner escapes during the earth quake. Youth gangs and other armed groups are regaining strength in the most vulnerable neighborhoods and spreading to other areas of the city. In the tent camps around Port-au- Prince, displaced people—especially women—remain vulnerable to crime. These factors have contributed to an increasing sense of insecurity. As political tensions rise in the run-up to elections, armed groups, criminal enterprises and vulnerable youth could once again be mobilized by political forces to fuel violence or disrupt the political process. Gangs and their involvement in criminal and political violence are deeply rooted in Haitian politics, and fueled by widespread poverty, inadequate police presence, government weak ness, and social and economic inequities. Prior to the earthquake, criminal violence had begun to decline due to a combination of political reconciliation, law enforcement operations and investment in marginalized neighborhoods. These fragile gains have been reversed since the earthquake and public confidence in the police has been shaken. Directing resources toward mitigating violence while addressing the underlying sources of crime and violence should remain a priority in post-earthquake reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Crime, Natural Disasters, and Law Enforcement
190. Mental Health Services During and After Armed Conflict: The State of Knowledge and Practice
- Author:
- Leonard Rubenstein and Anjalee Kohli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There is increasing recognition that the violence, displacement, disruption of communities and social networks, and deprivation stemming from war deeply impact the mental health of individuals and the social cohesion of communities. In response, donors and providers are creating programs for psychosocial or clinical services that seek to be culturally appropriate, attentive to the need to build local capacity, and sustainable. The quality and comprehensiveness of mental health programs offered in crises, however, generally remains mixed. Too often the programs do not sufficiently differentiate among widely varying individual needs or focus predominantly on either community-based interventions or the clinical needs of more severely affected people but not both. Services for people with more severe disabilities often replicate institutional models, and accompanying human rights violations, that existed in the pre-war period. The challenge of providing sound programs, moreover, is complicated by a relatively thin evidence base. In the face of these challenges, the “Guidelines on Mental Health and Psychosocial Support in Emergency Settings” adopted in 2007 by the Interagency Standing Committee (IASC) offer a promising approach. They stress understanding local context, programming that attends to psychosocial support needs of the entire community, meeting clinical needs of people with more severe conditions, and respecting human rights. Following the IASC and building the evidence base by assuring adequate evaluation of funded programs can help meet the tremendous mental health needs of suffering populations.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and War
191. Mapping the Russian Blogosphere
- Author:
- Anand Varghese
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Analysis of more than 11,000 Russian-language blogs reveals an active political blogosphere comprising internationally linking bloggers; Russian media-focused bloggers; nationalists; members of the democratic opposition; bloggers focused on business, economics, and finance; and social and environmental activists. Russian bloggers tend to be less politically polarized than their counterparts in the American blogosphere, and they prefer to blog about political issues from a nonpartisan position. Future research should focus on the offline outcomes of online political blogging, the effect of blogging platforms on polarization, the responses of the Russian government, and mapping the effects of newer social networking platforms.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
192. Conflict and Post-Conflict Governance: The Stakeholder Perspective
- Author:
- Jacleen Mowery, Demis Yanco, and Ryan McClanahan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Post-conflict governance requires simultaneous and complementary action on three levels. national governance, local governance, and civil society. Norbert Mao, a parliamentary leader from Uganda, offered this progression for managing the trade-off between short-term stabilization and long-term capacity building: "In the emergency phase, you should do it for us. In the reconstruction phase, you should do it with us. And in the development phase, you should do it through us." Efforts to develop the capacity of local governments to deliver services may be more responsive to external assistance than programs aimed at overcoming systemic dysfunctions in the central government, in part because municipal officials are more accountable to their communities. Civil society should be a prominent player in transitioning to “local ownership,” which may erroneously be conceived in terms of ownership by national and perhaps local governments. Building the capacity of civil society entails connectivity with international partners and ideas, not just financing. There are trade-offs involved among the three stakeholders. Among the most salient, when a legacy of abuse of power by the national government and repression of opposition groups must be confronted, an active civil society is essential. An invigorated civil society can fundamentally challenge illicit structures of power that profited from conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Government, Peace Studies, War, Governance, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Uganda
193. Transcending the Past to Build Haiti\'s Future
- Author:
- Robert Maguire
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Efforts to build a better Haiti following the catastrophic earthquake of January 2010 are complicated by the challenges of addressing urgent needs, including elections and the cholera outbreak, that run parallel to the rebuilding process and that present an enormous challenge to Haiti\'s under-resourced and weakened government. Enactment of the Haitian government\'s internationally-endorsed and ambitious action recovery plan is hindered by the apparent lack of an over-riding operational framework that will help to ensure not only implementation, but also coherence. Donors and other international actors would be wise to embrace Haiti as a country that has highly propitious fundamentals for successful economic growth, and to build on them. Without important shifts in political, economic and social paradigms, the prospect for Haiti\'s future as a better country that can sustain and expand progress and can improve prospects for all its citizens is clouded.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
194. Chad's 2007 Peace Agreement Plagued by Poor Implementation
- Author:
- Delphine Djiraibe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Political crises and armed opposition movements have plagued Chad for several years. After several failed peace initiatives, the August 13 Agreement was reached in 2007. The agreement is the most viable framework for bringing peace to Chad. It calls on the Chadian government to reform critical electoral institutions, undertake a credible electoral census and demilitarize politics in order to ensure fair and transparent elections. To date, the agreement has been poorly implemented. It jeopardizes the credibility of the upcoming legislative elections, currently scheduled for February 2011. Only comprehensive reform that addresses the development and governance challenges facing Chad will definitively end its political crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
195. Recruitment of Rule of Law Specialists for the Civilian Response Corps
- Author:
- Michael Dziedzic and Scott Carlson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, experienced international practitioners and peace scholars have recognized that multilateral interventions in societies ravaged by internal conflict cannot succeed unless they come prepared to deal with the inevitable void in public security and inability of the legal system to function effectively. In 1998, two core components of any solution to this crucial deficiency were highlighted in Policing the New World Disorder. First, “...the capacity of the international community to mobilize CIVPOL [civilian police] personnel should be strengthened, both within contributing states and at the United Nations.” Second, “The task of rebuilding or reforming the public security apparatus requires that the judicial process, associated legal code s, and penal system be addressed during the earliest stages...” The Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations (2000, commonly referred to as the Brahimi Report) urged “...Member States to establish enhanced national 'pools' of police officers and related experts, earmarked for deployment to United Nations peace operations, to help meet the high demand f or civilian police and related criminal justice/rule of law expertise in peace operations dealing with inter-state conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Globalization
196. Dr. Ali Al-Dabbagh's Iraq-based Formula for Regional Cooperation
- Author:
- Elizabeth Detwiler
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- USIP recently hosted Dr. Ali Al-Dabbagh, official spokesman for the Iraqi government, He unveiled a far-reaching regional initiative to increase economic and strategic cooperation in the Middle East. The initiative represents a new level of consciousness and independence in Iraqi foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
197. The Private Sector in Security Sector Reform: Essential But Not Yet Optimized
- Author:
- Robert Perito
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- While the U.S. and world economies are slowing markedly, Security Sector Reform (SSR) is a growth industry for the private sector. U.S. government employees may set SSR policy and design projects, but implementation is extensively outsourced to private contractors. With the forthcoming surge of U.S. military forces into Afghanistan, the U.S. Army has announced contracts worth $1.1 billion for the construction of military bases and training centers for Afghan military and police. Private firms supply everything from construction materials to trainers and administrative staff. Private contractors operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan are required to provide their own security. Up to 15 percent of the cost of construction will go to private security firms, which guard convoys, facilities and personnel.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
198. Building Blocks for Citizenship and a Peaceful Transition in Sudan
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell, Linda Bishai, and Jacki Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Sudan's upcoming elections in 2009 raise hopes and concerns for the country's future. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan is scheduled to hold national and state level elections in 2009. (Elections are to take place for president of the Government of National Unity, president of the Government of Southern Sudan, members of the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, and governors and state legislatures in all of Sudan's 25 states) However, delays in each phase of electoral preparation—including the passage of the electoral law, the appointment of the nine National Election Commission members responsible for overseeing elections, and the census—have raised doubts about whether the elections will be held within the timeframe outlined in the CPA.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
199. Reconstructing Gaza – Lessons from Lebanon
- Author:
- Alistair Harris
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Last week's international donor conference to address the question of humanitarian assistance to Gaza underscores the myriad challenges confronting the process. Namely, how should the international community respond to the complex issues surrounding assistance in post-conflict recovery and reconstruction, particularly when several key donors reject any contact with Hamas, the governing authority on the ground? By any estimation, the Gaza reconstruction process will face several perplexing issues: How can billions of US dollars be effectively, transparently and accountably dispersed in a coordinated way, when several key donors and the Government of Israel reject any moves that will bolster the fortunes of Hamas, who m they classify as a terrorist organisation? What impact will an emerging Palestinian National Unity Government have on the mechanisms for overcoming many donors' reluctance to deal directly with Hamas? What opportunities and challenges does the reconstruction of Gaza pose for a rapprochement between Hamas and Fatah? Who will lead the reconstruction process and how will meaningful activity take place in the face of severe restrictions on access and movement? With Hamas in power in Gaza and Israel ref using to consider opening their common borders until kidnapped Israeli Defence Forces Corporal Gilad Shalit is released by Hamas, how is meaningful recovery and reconstruction even possible? In the absence of a credible political process, what use is reconstruction anyway if it merely returns the population of Gaza to their pre-conflict socio-economic imperilment? Lebanon faced a similar situation following the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Lebanon
200. Resolving the Crisis over Constitutional Interpretation in Afghanistan
- Author:
- J Alexander Thier and John Dempsey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The current political crisis over elections in Afghanistan stems, in part, from a fundamental gap in Afghanistan's legal and political system: lack of agreement on what entity(s) has the power to resolve constitutional disputes, and how that power is accessed. Without a clear path to settling constitutional disagreements, the system becomes deadlocked as disputes arise, exacerbating tensions between Afghanistan's fragile institutions and factionalized political elite.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia