Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Israel / Topic:

101. PolicyWatch #1261: Reading Between the Lines of President Bush's July 16 Address

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush's July 16 address on the Middle East peace process was a mix of the old and the new, offering neither an unequivocal reaffirmation of past approaches nor a thoroughly novel direction for Arab-Israeli diplomacy in the wake of Hamas's coup in Gaza.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

102. PolicyWatch #1247: Special Forum Report: Hamas and the Second Six Day War: Implications, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hamas's success caps a forty-year evolution of the Palestinian role in the larger Arab-Israeli conflict. In 1967, Israel's military victories rocked the armies and regimes of neighboring Arab states, energizing the previously marginal Palestinian nationalist movement and, especially, Fatah. That term, "Fatah," is a reverse Arabic acronym for "Harakat Tahrir al-Watani al-Filastini," the Palestinian National Liberation Movement.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

103. PolicyWatch #1243: Special Forum Report: When Diplomacy Failed: Lessons Learned from June 1967

Author:: Dennis Ross, Samuel Lewis, and Wendy Chamberlin
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The historical record has made it increasingly clear that in the May-June 1967 Middle East conflict, public assurances from world powers -- or the lack thereof -- greatly influenced the decisionmaking of regional leaders. Specifically, Soviet encouragement of Egypt -- both public and private -- played a large role in influencing Egyptian chief of staff and military commander Abdul Hakim Amer as he brought President Gamal Abdul Nasser to the brink of war with Israel. At the same time, however, the U.S. government under President Lyndon Johnson extended no parallel public assurances to Israel. This absence of commitment from a major foreign power or the UN in a moment of crisis affected the mindset of Israel's policymakers whenever they faced national security dilemmas thereafter, leading them to take many unilateral actions in subsequent years.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

104. The Golan Heights and Syrian-Israeli Relations: What Does Asad Want?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The first annual International Media Forum on the Golan Heights, held November 5-7, 2006, in the city of Quneitra on the Syria-Israel border, highlighted Syria's stated desire for the return of the entire Golan. The forum's backdrop was a litany of controversial statements made by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad about his next moves in relation to Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

105. Prosecuting Terrorists: A Look at the American and Israeli Experiences

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Dvorah Chen
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's summer war with Hizballah has again raised legal questions about the imprisonment of terrorists in Israel. From its founding, the state of Israel has been forced to confront belligerent activities by hostile states and organizations seeking to destroy it. The struggle against Palestinian terrorism has taken an enormous toll over the course of the second intifada, during which time more than one thousand Israelis have been killed and thousands more wounded. Enemy combatants are imprisoned in order to prevent them from causing further destruction. Therefore, terrorist detentions play a central role in the struggle to prevent terrorist activities, and the legal issues surrounding these detentions pose crucial concerns for the entire international community. There are two major processes for the prosecution of terrorist detainees in Israel: (1) through the normal civilian criminal track based on penal legislation, and (2) through special administrative measures under the minister of defense.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Israel

106. From Beirut to Gaza: Israel's Neighbors in the Aftermath of War

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The governments on both of our “hot” fronts, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority, are on the verge of change, with practical, immediate implications for Israel—and unfortunately, not positive ones. Rather, the storm clouds continue to gather on the strategic horizon.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Government, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

107. Countering Holocaust Denial in Arab and Muslim Societies: A New Approach

Author:: Robert Satloff, Akbar Ahmed, and Gregg Rickman
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Of all the forms of anti-Semitism in Arab societies, Holocaust denial is one of the most pernicious and widespread. Generally it takes one of three forms: outright denial, Holocaust glorification, and Holocaust minimization or trivialization. One does no favor to Arabs by exempting them from this history, whatever its connection to their political dispute with Israel. And because jihadists' conspiracy theories target a coalition of “Crusaders and Jews,” exempting Arabs from Holocaust history certainly does America no favor either.
Topic:: International Relations, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, America, and Israel

108. Containing Hizballah's Terrorist Wing

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As part of the international effort to ensure that the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel can become a sustainable ceasefire, much attention has been paid to blocking arms shipments to Hizballah, as called for in UN Security Council Resolution 1701. But another threat to peace in the region is Hizballah's potent terrorist wing. Arguably its most dangerous offensive weapon, Hizballah's terrorist wing was active throughout this recent conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

109. Lessons and Consequences of the Israel-Hizballah War: An Early Assessment

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 25, 2006, Jeffrey White, David Makovsky, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White is the Berrie Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute and the coauthor, with Michael Eisenstadt, of the Institute Policy Focus Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency. David Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. He, like Jeffrey White, recently returned from a trip to Israel. Dennis Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

110. Syria's Role in the War in Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker and Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent developments related to the war in Lebanon—a warning from Damascus that Israeli forces in Lebanon should keep away from the Syrian border, the placement of Syrian forces on a heightened state of alert, the explosion of a crude improvised explosive device (IED) on the Syrian side of the Golan, President Bashar al-Asad's bellicose August 1 Army Day speech, Syrian facilitation of Iranian efforts to resupply Hizballah, and Israeli attempts to interdict these supply lines through air strikes along the Lebanon-Syria border—have prompted concerns that the fighting in Lebanon could escalate to involve Syria. Warnings from Damascus that an international stabilization force for Lebanon would be seen as an army of occupation, and therefore a legitimate target of resistance, have likewise raised the possibility that Syria might sponsor or support attacks on such a force, as it sponsored attacks against the Multi-National Force (MNF) in Beirut in 19821984.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

111. The Ground Offensive in Lebanon: An Opportunity

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Earlier this week, Israel began its long-anticipated ground offensive in Lebanon intended to degrade Hizballahs military apparatus, pacify Israels northern border with Lebanon, and lay the foundation for what is now frequently referred to as a sustainable ceasefire. Reaching a consensus on the precise meaning of the term sustainable will be a difficult prerequisite. But however such a ceasefire is defined beyond the presence of a robust international force, there is widespread agreement that it must include the participation of Syriaparticularly a commitment by Damascus to adhere to UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1680. So far, Syria has given no indication that it will agree to such a course, and, given the events of the past several weeks, it is difficult to imagine the circumstances under which Syrian president Bashar al-Asad might change his mind. That said, Israels new ground offensive in Lebanon represents a significant change in the status quo, one that may force Syria to reconsider.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

112. As UN Ceasefire Resolutions Loom, Diplomatic Gaps Remain

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As diplomacy to end hostilities between Israel and Lebanon intensifies at the United Nations, with a first resolution passed perhaps on Monday, conceptual gaps between the parties remain. The differences range from substantive to procedural. France has been at the center of diplomacy surrounding the passage of a UN Security Council resolution, since it is expected to lead the multinational force to southern Lebanon. From the outset of its consultations with the United States, which are at the center of UN diplomacy, France has sought two Security Council resolutions; this plan has won the backing of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The first resolution would declare an immediate ceasefire and establish general principles to guide the period after the ceasefire. The second resolution would, among other things, define the scope and mission of the multinational force.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, France, and Lebanon

113. Why a Multinational Force is Essential in Lebanon

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Lebanon plunges deeper into ruin and chaos as a result of Hizballah's “gang war” tactics against Israel's expanded military campaign to degrade the power of the Islamist party, Hizballah, Syria, and its allies in Lebanon are devising plans to subvert an international agreement on a multinational force to guard the Israel-Lebanon border. They are also preparing for a political comeback in a postconflict Lebanon by riding the wave of the victory Hizballah is sure to claim whatever the outcome—a supposed triumph that in reality will be at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

114. Israel's War against Hizballah and Its Battle against Hamas

Author:: Shimon Peres
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 1, 2006, the Honorable Shimon Peres addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum to discuss Israel's political and military strategy in its war against Hizballah. Shimon Peres is the deputy prime minister of Israel and a member of Knesset from the Kadima Party. A former prime minister, defense minister, and foreign minister, he has played a central role in the political life of Israel for more than half a century and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Peres's remarks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Israel

115. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

116. The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The critical question of whether or not the current conflict in Lebanon will escalate to a broader regional war is being answered in two overly simple ways. One such analysis is that this is a “meltdown” with escalating violence and mounting pressures for further escalation. A second, equally simplistic view is that since no one has an interest in escalating to a regional conflict it will not happen. Both of these views do not account for the complex set of dynamics and the real possibility that accident and error can intervene.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

117. Ceasefire Options for Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Wednesday, an international conference will open in Italy to discuss the state of Lebanon and explore potential formulas for an Israeli-Hizballah ceasefire. Current conditions make an immediate ceasefire unlikely, but should changing events make a ceasefire possible, one of the first priorities for the Bush administration and the international community will be to find a mechanism to reinvigorate and implement the remaining stipulations of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. In particular, that means disarming Hizballah. The group will no doubt oppose international and domestic efforts to disarm it, but the Lebanese government and the international community can take steps in the context of a ceasefire to consolidate Lebanese resentment toward Hizballah and press ahead with Resolution 1559.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Israel and Lebanon

118. Hizballah's Global Terror Option

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

119. Israel and Hizballah at War: A Status Report

Author:: David Schenker, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 19, 2006, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Schenker, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Schenker, a senior fellow in Arab politics at the Institute, served until 2005 as Levant country director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

120. Hamas and Israel: From Isolation to Confrontation

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 10, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Makovsky and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

121. Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Program

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 17, 2006, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog and Patrick Clawson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Herzog, an active officer in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. General Herzog recently published Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Program: A Potential Asset for the International Community, an Institute monograph available for free download. Dr. Clawson is deputy director for research at The Washington Institute, and recently published Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos. Mehdi Khalaji also contributed to the panel; his remarks appear in a separate PolicyWatch. The following is a rapporteur's summary of General Herzog and Dr. Clawson's remarks.
Topic:: Civil Society, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Israel

122. Reactions in the Middle East to the Israel-Lebanon Crisis

Author:: Rana Shaab, Nicholas Ravella, Nathan Hodson, and Daniel Fink
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The outbreak of hostilities after Hizballah's July 12 raid into Israel, in which it captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, has elicited a variety of responses from government officials and other prominent figures throughout the Middle East. Though it is not surprising to see harsh statements about Israel, it is unusual to see Arab leaders criticizing Hizballah for its role in precipitating the conflict. The usually cautious Saudi authorities implicitly criticized Hizballah for adventurism; is seems that Riyadh may be wary of Iranian influence. The following is a sampling of Middle Eastern reactions, compiled from various regional and international media sources.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

123. Hizballah Opens a Second Front

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The capture yesterday of two Israeli soldiers (eight more were killed) in a crossborder raid by the Lebanese group Hizballah, as Israeli forces in Gaza continued to search for an Israeli soldier kidnapped last week by Hamas and to clear Qassam rocket launch sites, marked the opening of a second front in the war against Israel being waged by these two Islamist terrorist groups and their state sponsors, Syria and Iran. These developments highlight the potential for further escalation and illustrate the rising dangers posed by the emergence of an anti-Israel and anti-American military axis comprised of Hamas, Hizballah, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:: Development, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: America, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Syria

124. Syria, Hamas, and the Gaza Crisis

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Earlier today, Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashal held a press conference in Damascus broadcast live on al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, and Syrian state television. During the broadcast, Mashal described kidnapped Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit as a “prisoner of war,” said that prisoner exchange was the only solution to the crisis, and appeared to recommend direct negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The press conference was significant, not only for its content, but because it was held in a Damascus hotel: typically in the past, when Syria-based terrorist organizations took responsibility for operations, they did so from Beirut. The high profile Mashal statement from Damascus suggests that the Asad regime has changed its rules of engagement from tacit to explicit support for Hamas. The shift highlights Syria's emboldened foreign policy a year and a half after the assassination in Beirut of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Syria

125. Jordan Looks Inward: The Hashemite Kingdom in the Wake of Zarqawi and the Hamas-Israel Clash

Author:: Samer Abu Libdeh
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Even while Israelis and Palestinians are locked in deepening conflict over the kidnapping of a young Israeli soldier and the future of the Hamas government, political life on the East Bank of the Jordan River is increasingly focused on internal Jordanian concerns.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

126. Tracking Hamas's Leadership: Insights into the Organization's Structure and Evolution

Author:: Christopher Hamilton
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Taken together, the kidnapping on Sunday of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and the signing on Tuesday of an agreement among Palestinian factions to create a unity government for the Palestinian Authority (PA) suggest that significant seismic forces may be developing within Hamas that may have a decisive impact both on the organization's solidarity and on the future course of Israeli-Palestinian relations. While the unity agreement itself has little significance beyond internal Palestinian politics—it is a nonstarter for the Israelis and represents a major retreat from previous Palestinian positions—its importance lies in the fact that it highlights the possible emergence of a fissure within the Hamas organization between its internal leaders, headed by Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, who experience the brunt both of popular concerns and Israeli reprisals, and its external leaders, chief among them Damascus-based Khaled Mashal, who are free of these constraints and therefore able to insist on more maximalist positions. However, in signing this agreement—apparently without full consultation with, or the approval of, the Damascus contingent—the Hamas leaders in the territories have signaled both their independence and their intention to embark on a more pragmatic path than that preferred by Hamas's more ideological external elements. Indeed, the timing and nature of the attack seems to have been specifically intended to disrupt the effort to agree on a unity government with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and thereby, the possible emergence of a more moderate Hamas strategy.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

127. Abbas, Hamas, and the Referendum Trap

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's pursuit of a referendum on the Palestinian National Accord has been widely interpreted by commentators and reporters as a power play designed to circumvent the Hamas-led government and force it to implicitly accept Israel's existence. But while the process of conducting a referendum -- the legality of which remains questionable -- would shift power away from the government and the legislature, the actual text of the document, which a group of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails negotiated, more closely resembles the political program of Hamas than that of Abbas. Moreover, Hamas has recovered from its initial surprise at the referendum initiative and has mounted an effective response, first by challenging the legality of a referendum, then by dragging Abbas into negotiations over the substance of the Accord. Despite a possible compromise that may emerge in coming days and shift the composition of the government or modify the language of the Accord, Hamas has used the internal Palestinian debate over a referendum to secure its internal legitimacy and advance many of its governing priorities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

128. The Palestinian National Accord: Consensus at Any Cost

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi and Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas's surprise May 25 announcement that he would call for a national referendum should Palestinian factions fail to reach agreement during their national dialogue was wrongly interpreted as a peace plan by many in the press. The document Abbas threatened to put to a popular vote is intended to quell the daily gun battles, kidnappings, and assassination attempts among rival armed groups in Gaza. However, since each party will interpret the document to affirm its own interests, the vague language on relations with Israel could be interpreted either as advocating a one-state solution that would eliminate prospects for peace or as recognizing a two-state solution. Abbas and Fatah may view the “national accord,” negotiated earlier in May among prominent prisoners in Israeli jails, as a means of forcing Hamas into a corner on negotiating with Israel, but the text of the document much more closely resembles Hamas's own political program. (Read an English translation of the national accord in PDF format).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

129. Understanding the Middle East: A View from inside the Mossad

Author:: Efraim Halevy
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the current global circumstances, the role of intelligence gathering and analysis in policymaking has become increasingly important. As a result, intelligence leaders have ever more influence in the policymaking process. This is particularly the case in Israel, where some of the political leadership's most significant decisions came on the heels of Mossad and Military Intelligence initiatives and assessments.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem

130. Mr. Olmert Goes to Washington: Prospects for U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:: David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ehud Olmert is proposing a plan to withdraw 60,000 settlers from the West Bank and consolidate Israel's borders. His reasoning is that these settlers have been in limbo for thirty-nine years. He does not want their presence in the West Bank to jeopardize Israel's democratic nature, nor to use them as human bargaining chips in negotiations. He is looking at the issue from the perspective of security instead of ideology.
Topic:: Security, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Israel

131. Palestinian Economic Dependence on Israel

Author:: Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the international donor community struggles to determine its stance on aid to the Palestinians under the Hamas government, it is important to remember the extent to which the Palestinian economy is dependent upon Israeli decisions. Last year the international community gave the Palestinians $1.4 billion in aid; Israel has the potential to affect at least that sum through its policies on trade, Palestinian workers in Israel, and the tax revenue it collects.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

132. Israel Goes to the Polls

Author:: Yaaron Deckel
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 16, 2006, Yaron Deckel and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Deckel is a leading political analyst in Israel and Washington correspondent for Israel Television and Israel Radio. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. Mr. Makovsky's remarks were released in PolicyWatch no. 1086, “The Shape of Israel's Election Race.” The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Deckel's remarks. In several recent interviews with the press, Israeli acting prime minister Ehud Olmert articulated a specific agenda for disengagement and the evacuation of thousands of additional settlers from the West Bank, distinguishing his campaign from the vague promises that have characterized past Israeli elections. Ariel Sharon campaigned in 2003 on eventual “deep and painful” future concessions, but did not specifically address disengagement until after the elections. It is therefore important to evaluate the prospect that Kadima will head the next government and what policies it would likely follow if in power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Israel

133. The Shape of Israel's Election Race

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a surprise move prior to Israel's March 28 election, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert unveiled a proposal that Israeli settlers be consolidated into West Bank settlement blocs largely adjacent to the Green Line. A week after the announcement, Israeli public reaction suggests his gamble seems to have paid off. According to a Yediot Ahronot poll released on March 17, Israelis favor Olmert's unilateralist proposal by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent. Moreover, Olmert's poll standing was not negatively impacted by the proposal, despite the fact that it could mean the removal of an estimated 60,000 settlers from dozens of settlements scattered across the larger part of the West Bank outside Israel's security barrier. (Inside the Israeli security barrier, there are approximately 193,000 settlers, mostly in blocs, in the 8 percent of the West Bank largely adjacent to the pre-1967 boundaries. By comparison, President Clinton's final proposal in 2000 involved Israel keeping 5 percent of the land.) An Olmert security advisor and former Shin Bet head, Avi Dichter, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will not be withdrawn from the West Bank. Olmert was able to use his commanding lead to answer critics who say that the new party leader lacks Ariel Sharon's track record and therefore the authority to ask the public to trust his decisions. In the March 17 poll, Olmert's Kadima stood to win 39 seats in the 120-seat Knesset; Labor was polling at 19 seats and Likud, 15 seats. Olmert's standing was undoubtedly assisted by Israel's March 15 operation to seize from a Jericho prison the assassins of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi. Olmert hopes the operation will burnish his security credentials and undercut Netanyahu's argument that he is uniquely tough enough to challenge Hamas. (Olmert needs to be concerned about the 22 percent of Israelis who are undecided—the equivalent of twenty-five Knesset seats.)
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

134. Responding to Hamas's Triumph

Author:: David Makovsky, Patrick Clawson, and Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 3, 2006, Marc Otte, Patrick Clawson, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Otte is the European Union's special representative for the Middle East peace process. Dr. Clawson, The Washington Institute's deputy director for research, is author with Zoe Danon Gedal of the Institute monograph Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

135. Where to Draw the Line on International Assistance to the Palestinians?

Author:: David Makovsky, Michael Herzog, and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the immediate aftermath of Hamas's parliamentary victory in late January, the Quartet—the United States, the EU, Russia, and the UN—set clear criteria for funding a Palestinian Authority (PA) under Hamas's leadership. The Quartet said direct funding would be a function of the new government's “commitment to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Roadmap.” Indeed, there is no other example of taxpayers subsidizing a government run by an organization that appears on State Department and EU terror lists.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

136. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

137. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?

Author:: Emily Hunt
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

138. Between Palestinian and Israeli Elections: Implications for U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 30, 2006, Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, and Michael Herzog addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr Satloff is the Institute's executive director. Ambassador Ross is the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow. Michael Herzog is a brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and a visiting military fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Israel

139. On the Eve of Palestinian Elections: Israel and Palestinians Enter a New Era

Author:: David Makovsky and Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On the eve of the Palestinian legislative elections, Fatah maintains only the slightest of leads over Hamas, a scenario which would have been unimaginable one year ago. Since Yasser Arafat's death in November 2004, Hamas has increased its strength by 40 percent, while in the same period Fatah has only increased its support by 10 percent.
Topic:: Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

140. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections

Author:: Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

141. Lessons from the Fight against Terrorism

Author:: Dennis Ross, Moshe Yaalon, and Avi Dichter
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 15, 2005, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, Avi Dichter, and Ambassador Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Dichter, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy, is the former head of the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet). Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (2004). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

142. Netanyahu's Victory: Major Challenges for the Likud Party

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli prime minister and recently resigned finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu won the Likud leadership primary on December 19, beating the foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, by a margin of 45 percent to 33 percent. Netanyahu returns to the leadership of Likud, which he vacated after his loss in the 1999 election. Netanyahu's victory comes a day after Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon suffered what his doctors called a mild stroke; he was released from the hospital within forty-eight hours. At seventy-seven, Sharon already shares the record for the oldest Israeli prime minister; David Ben-Gurion was seventy-seven when he resigned in 1963. Sharon turns seventy-eight in February.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

143. Campaign Season Begins in Israel (Part I): Ariel Sharon Bolts from Likud

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Monday, November 21, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon announced that he is bolting the Likud Party and forming a new National Responsibility Party. The Knesset took a preliminary vote to dissolve itself. While wrangling may continue, a final date will soon be set for elections in March 2006. Sharon remains prime minister during the interregnum.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

144. Israel's Search for Peace and Security: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ten years ago today, the Israeli prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, was assassinated. This was one of the darkest days in the history of the State of Israel, the Israeli democracy, and the Jewish people. Prime Minister Rabin, who had also previously served as the IDF's chief of the General Staff, was born in Jerusalem in1922—perhaps symbolically, during the days of the first significant Arab murderous attacks against there established Israeli settlements in the land of Israel. In January 1964, Yitzhak Rabin was promoted to the rank of lieutenant general, becoming the seventh IDF chief of the General Staff. After war broke out in 1967, General Rabin led the IDF to the decisive victory in the Six Day War and, on December 31, 1967, stepped down from his command with Israel enjoying, for the first time since its establishment, defensible borders.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

145. Abbas's Missed Opportunities in Washington

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas returned to Ramallah from Washington last week having missed a key opportunity to spur President George W. Bush to reengage in the Roadmap. Instead, the October 20 joint press conference at the White House concluded with Bush acknowledging that his presidency may not witness the creation of a Palestinian state by 2008. His administration, Bush said, might merely “lay that foundation so that the process becomes irreversible.” The same administration that two years ago endorsed the Quartet's Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace based upon a detailed schedule of commitments now expresses hesitancy on committing to any “timetable” for the creation of a Palestinian state. Bush administration policy has always had a performance-based rather than a time-based approach, but now it is not putting down any time markers.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

146. Hamas's Tactics: Lessons from Recent Attacks

Author:: Jamie Chosak and Julie Sawyer
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 22, 2005, Abbas al-Sayyid was convicted of masterminding two Hamas suicide bombings: the March 27, 2002, attack at the Park Hotel in Netanya and the May 18, 2001, shopping mall bombing that killed five and injured one hundred. The Park Hotel bombing, considered the terror group's most devastating attack since the outbreak of the second intifada, had implications extending far beyond the murder of thirty innocent civilians. The attack prompted Israel to launch Operation Defensive Shield, the reoccupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the bombing highlighted Hamas's program of radicalization and recruitment in Palestinian universities and the group's experimentation with chemical and biological agents.
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

147. A Hamas Headquarters in Saudi Arabia?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli authorities on September 27 announced the arrest of an Israeli-Arab Hamas activist who played central militant, political, and financing roles for the group in coordination with what Israeli authorities described as a “Hamas command in Saudi Arabia.” The arrest is just the latest evidence that support for Hamas in particular and Islamic extremism in general continues to emanate from within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Religion and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

148. A New Reality on the Egypt-Gaza Border (Part II): Analysis of the New Israel-Egypt Agreement

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 1 Egypt-Israel agreement regarding the deployment of new Egyptian forces along the Egyptian border with Gaza (the Agreed Arrangements) represents a shared Israeli-Egyptian interest in preventing the militarization and radicalization of Gaza following Israeli disengagement. For the first time, Israel is relinquishing its control over part of the external perimeter of the Palestinian areas, handing responsibility to a third party. Success or failure will bear important consequences for both Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, Israel, Gaza, and Egypt

149. A New Reality on the Egypt-Gaza Border (Part I): Contents of the New Israel-Egypt Agreement

Author:: Brooke Neuman
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 1, 2005, following lengthy negotiations, Egypt and Israel signed the Agreed Arrangements Regarding the Deployment of a Designated Force of Border Guards along the Border in the Rafah Area (the Agreed Arrangements). This agreement was designed to enable Israel to evacuate the Philadelphia corridor, an eight-mile (thirteen-kilometer) military zone along the Gaza-Egypt border, through the deployment of Egyptian border patrol forces to the Egyptian side of the border in order to prevent smuggling into Gaza. In eighty-three clauses, the agreement describes the mission, weaponry, infrastructure, and obligations of the parties.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, Israel, Gaza, and Egypt

150. Empowering Mahmoud Abbas after Disengagement

Author:: Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Empowering Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas and fellow moderates at this critical time may be in the interest of everyone who favors a return to peace negotiations, but Abbas himself faces immense challenges to his authority that make him unlikely to be able to implement significant changes in the four months left before Palestinian legislative elections in January. The weakened position Abbas inherited included limited control over security forces, paralyzing rivalries within the Fatah movement that limit any support for difficult decisions, and an increasingly assertive Hamas that constantly flaunts its ability to act independently. None of these sources of Abbas's weakness is likely to change significantly in the coming months. And, despite Abbas's intentions to establish law and order and begin economic revitalization in Gaza as articulated in a speech delivered on September 13, the chaos exhibited along the border at Rafah and in the old Israeli settlements immediately after the Israeli withdrawal demonstrates just how difficult his task will be.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

151. A Wind in Hamas's Sails: Palestinian Militants Gather Post-Disengagement Momentum

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 12, the last departing Israeli forces closed the gates of Gaza behind them, followed by a salvo of Palestinian rockets aimed at southern Israel. In the unsettled aftermath of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, only one camp seems clearly to know where it is heading -- the militant Palestinian Islamist groups, led by Hamas. These groups now profess their intention to continue their violent campaign in and from the West Bank. Their strategy, using armed and political capabilities, poses a serious challenge to both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships and may undermine prospects of improved Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

152. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties

Author:: David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

153. Undermining Hamas and Empowering Moderates by Filling the Humanitarian Void

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now that Israel has disengaged from the Gaza Strip and four settlements from the northern West Bank, the international community has a clear interest in doing all it can to see that the post-withdrawal security situation remains stable so that the exit from Gaza leads to further steps along the path laid out in the Quartet's Roadmap to Middle East peace. As former World Bank leader James Wolfensohn, now Washington's special envoy for disengagement, lobbies world leaders to offer significant support for Palestinian development projects, a parallel effort is necessary to create new, transparent public and private social-service organizations unaffiliated with Hamas or other groups engaged in terrorism or political violence.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

154. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan

Author:: Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

155. Post-Gaza Crises for Religious Zionism in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank settlements has left in its wake three important crises for the religious Zionist movement that spearheaded settlements in Israel. These crises involve the settlers' future relationships with the Israeli public, the Israeli state, and the political secular right. For settlers, these three relationships are now colored by a sense of betrayal, raising the question of whether disengagement will radicalize the ideological settlers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

156. Sharon, Netanyahu, Disengagement, and Likud Leadership

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An immediate consequence of Israel's disengagement from Gaza was Benjamin Netanyahu's August 7 resignation as finance minister, making a Likud Party leadership challenge between him and Ariel Sharon virtually inevitable. What will be the impact of such a challenge on Sharon's policy in the postdisengagement period? And how would a Netanyahu challenge affect the chances of a split within the Likud—and perhaps a broader realignment of Israeli politics?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

157. On the Verge of Gaza Disengagement

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 4, 2005, Dennis Ross, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, has just returned from a month in the region. General Herzog of the Israel Defense Force is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. Formerly the senior military aide to the minister of defense, he was also an Israeli peace negotiator. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and the director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

158. Encouraging a Tougher PA Response to the Hamas Challenge

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's July 22-24 visit to the Israeli-Palestinian scene came amid critical domestic challenges to the Palestinian leadership against the backdrop of imminent Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, scheduled to begin August 15. In an unprecedented step, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas recently demonstrated the will to enforce his policy of nonviolence on Hamas and curb the group's efforts to become an alternative armed authority. Given his precarious vacillation between appeasement and enforcement, the international community should encourage Abbas to continue down the latter path and provide him with practical support toward that end.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

159. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

160. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement

Author:: Aviezer Ravitsky
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

161. Deteriorating Security May Short-Circuit Israeli-Palestinian Opportunities

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The June 21 meeting between Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas highlighted the widening expectations gap between the two parties. Less than two months before Israel commences its pullout from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, the security situation is worsening, while the PA appears largely unprepared to assume effective security control over these areas. Without an urgent predisengagement "crash program" to improve security, the opportunity afforded by Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene and Israel's departure from Gaza will be lost.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

162. Gaza Settler Relocation: New Progress, Ongoing Complications

Author:: Minda Lee Arrow
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the challenges facing the Israeli government in the weeks before the Gaza disengagement commences are relocating evacuated settlers and determining the future of settlement assets. This Peace Watch will examine the former issue; a future Peace Watch will address the latter.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries

163. Gaza Disengagement: Ideological and Political Challenges for the Settlement Movement

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank beginning this summer has earned him the ire of the 8,000 people living in the twenty-five settlements scheduled for evacuation. It has also generated opposition among the quarter-million settlers living in the remainder of the West Bank and their sympathizers within Israel proper. This PeaceWatch seeks to analyze the ideological and political challenges that disengagement poses to these settlers. Future PeaceWatches will examine other aspects of disengagement, including the challenge that settlers pose to disengagement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Israel, Gaza, and Czech Republic

164. Israel in the Territories: From Disengagement to Settlements

Author:: Isaac Herzog
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 4, 2005, Isaac Herzog addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Herzog was recently named Israel's minister of housing and construction when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon broadened his government to include the Labor Party. Heading a ministry that was key in backing past settlement activity, Mr. Herzog has called for a thorough ministerial review of Israel's settlement policy. A Labor member of the Knesset since 2001, Mr. Herzog previously served as cabinet secretary to Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

165. Assessing the Upcoming Bush-Sharon Summit: Clarifying Ambiguity

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 11, 2005, President George W. Bush will host Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. The meeting comes at a key juncture, given Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank. Mr. Makovsky, who recently returned from a ten-day trip to Israel, the West Bank, Egypt, and Jordan, discussed the upcoming summit at The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum on April 7. This PeaceWatch is based on his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Czech Republic

166. Palestinian Authority Minister of Economy Tied to Hamas?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei. Often described as technocratic and progressive, the cabinet is widely seen as fitting the Bush administration's requirement of being "untainted by terror." Indeed, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice highlighted the new cabinet as one of the "important steps" the Palestinian Authority (PA) had taken toward reform and described this week's London conference, held in support of the PA, as an opportunity to express "international support for their extremely important reform movement." Yet, one cabinet appointment gives reason for concern: the new minister of economy, Mazen Sunuqrut, has close, longstanding ties to Hamas.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

167. Israel's Newly Approved Security Fence Route: Geography and Demography

Author:: David Makovsky and Anna Hartman
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, the Israeli cabinet approved modified routing of the security fence, the first officially sanctioned changes since the cabinet approved construction in October 2003. The modifications, prompted by an Israeli supreme court decision last summer made to avert Palestinian hardship, are characterized by four major adjustments: (1) revised routing in several areas that will bring the fence closer to the Green Line (pre-1967 boundaries); (2) the elimination of all fence routes that create Palestinian enclaves or "double fences" (areas where Palestinians would have been completely encircled by the security fence); (3) the addition—for the first time on any official Israeli map—of fence around the Maale Adumim settlement bloc; and (4) final authorization of fence routing and construction near the Etzion bloc.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

168. Supporting the Palestinian Authority: Will the Oil-Rich Arabs Pay Up?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 1, British prime minister Tony Blair will host a conference in London dedicated to garnering support for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The summit is intended to help the new Palestinian leadership strengthen PA institutions, with a special focus on facilitating economic development, encouraging donor pledges, and identifying investment opportunities. Israel will not be participating, but Saudi Arabia and several other oil-rich Arab countries will attend. These countries reaped unexpectedly high government revenues in 2004 due to increased oil prices—excluding Iraq, the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw $45 billion in additional revenue compared to 2003. How much of this windfall is offered to bolster the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be seen, at least in Washington, as a key indicator of the willingness of the Arab world to secure a settlement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

169. Consolidating the Palestinian-Israeli Ceasefire

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The February 8 Sharm al-Shaykh summit may have marked the definitive end of the Arafat era. Both Israeli and Palestinian leaders issued orchestrated parallel statements declaring cessation of hostilities and highlighted the resumption of bilateral engagement after almost four and a half years of armed confrontation. Within hours, however, militant Palestinian groups challenged these commitments through attacks on Israeli targets. To take full advantage of the opportunities now available will require active effort to consolidate the fledgling ceasefire. This includes imposing the full force of the Palestinian central authority against rejectionists, clarifying the ambiguities in the parallel commitments, and enlisting key states and international actors in the campaign to combat Iranian and Hizballah designs to undermine this fragile process.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

170. Sustaining an Israeli-Palestinian Ceasefire

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire announced on February 8 in Sharm al-Sheikh created a window of opportunity that will slam shut quickly if terrorists resume attacks against Israel. After four-and-half years of incessant terrorist activity, Israeli tolerance for negotiating peace in the face of ongoing attacks is nil. The entire project, therefore, is premised on the assumption that the ceasefire will hold. But will it? Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have so far dismissed it, and previously negotiated ceasefires have all failed. Moreover, Iran and Hizballah are more proactively involved in recruiting, training, and financing Palestinian suicide bombers than ever before.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

171. No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves and, with international support, get down to the formidable tasks facing them in the coming months: stabilization of the security situation, Palestinian institution-building, Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, and Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

172. Analyzing the Thaw in Egyptian-Israeli Relations

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The announcement Sunday that Israel would release 170 Palestinian prisoners as a "gesture of goodwill, friendship, and gratitude" to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is the latest in a series of events, statements, and diplomatic activity over the past several weeks that has signaled a warming in Egyptian-Israeli relations. While it is too early to tell whether this thaw can be transformed into a fully constructive relationship, after the death of Yasser Arafat both sides are attempting to work together more closely, at least for now.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Egypt

173. Inside Hizballah's al-Manar Television

Author:: Avi Jorisch and Salamech Nematt
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Al-Manar, the official television station of Hizballah, is cited in public opinion polling in some Arab countries as one of the most widely used sources of news on the Arab-Israeli conflict. With ground stations in Lebanon and programming broadcast on seven satellites worldwide, al-Manar is watched by fifteen million viewers daily and has the look of an advanced television network. The professional appearance, however, is not at all complemented by professional, fair, and balanced journalism.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

174. Islam, Islamists, and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Martin Kramer and Gilles Kepel
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During the Cold War, Washington reached out to some Islamists in order to counter the Soviet threat. Some claim that engaging so-called "moderate" Islamists would serve U.S. interests today. But in any U.S.-Islamist dialogue, the Islamists are certain to demand concessions from the United States, including visas, freedom to raise money for their organizations, U.S. support for their participation in the politics of their home countries, and a reassessment of U.S. policy in the Middle East, including support for Israel. In return, Islamists would propose to condemn terrorist attacks against the United States, and discourage new attacks on American soil.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, and Arab Countries

175. European Union Suggests Turkey Is Not Quite Ready: A Window of Opportunity for the United States

Author:: Soner Cagaptay, Nazli Gencsoy, and Beril Unver
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, issued its report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, the union's membership rules that mandate "rule of law, institutions guaranteeing democracy, and respect for minorities." Although the commission praised Turkey's dramatic reform efforts since 1999, it stopped short of suggesting a date for accession negotiations with Ankara. This represents a departure from established traditions -- apparently only for Turkey, since the commission also reviewed Croatia's candidacy, suggesting a 2005 date for accession talks with that country. In another departure from tradition -- accession talks are normally only close-ended -- the report stated that any negotiations with Ankara "would be open-ended" and that their "outcome cannot be guaranteed." Finally, the report suggested that Turkey further improve its democracy, leaving the final decision on Ankara's membership to the December 17 meeting of the EU Council of Ministers, the union's highest decisionmaking body.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

176. Lessons from the Front Line in the Battle for 'Hearts and Minds': My Two Years in Morocco

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Morocco is a nation of nearly 30 million people, part Arab, part Berber, and overwhelmingly Muslim, yet distant enough from Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian arena so that those issues, while relevant, are not all-consuming. Hence, it provides an excellent vantage point from which to assess the ideological battle between radical Islamists, on the one hand, and non- and anti-Islamists on the other.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Morocco

177. Bush and Blair: Friends Indeed

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow's meeting in Washington, D.C., between President George W. Bush and visiting British prime minister Tony Blair was scheduled before the recent outbreaks of violence in Iraq and before Wednesday's announcement of U.S. support for Israel's plan to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. But both subjects will top the agenda of talks between the two leaders, and decisions emerging from the meeting could shape international affairs for years to come. Despite the fact that both men need each other's support at the moment, significant political and policy differences between the two persist.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

178. Preventing a Boom-to-Bust in Jordan's QIZs: Implications for Middle East Free Trade

Author:: Benjamin Orbach
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Egyptian officials and businessmen are visiting Israel this week to discuss the creation of Egyptian-Israeli qualified industrial zones (QIZs), which would give them free trade access to U.S. markets. They seek to emulate Jordan's QIZs, the most successful example to date of U.S.-Arab free trade. Indeed, these zones have given Jordan -- a relatively poor and resource-scarce country -- its most substantial "peace dividend" from its 1994 treaty with Israel. Yet, the Jordan QIZ experiment is in danger of failure, a situation that has important implications for U.S. efforts to promote regional free trade.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Egypt

179. Are All Politics Local? A Look at Palestinian Municipal Elections Results

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The first round of West Bank municipal balloting occurred on Thursday, December 23. Voting was held in twenty-six locations, ranging from Jericho to smaller towns and villages. This was the first round of local voting since 1976. The results—a Fatah victory but Hamas gains—have important implications for the next Palestinian elections.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

180. Hizballah, Iran, and the Prospects for a New Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and Neri Zilber
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The death of Yasser Arafat and the approach of Palestinian elections on January 9 have rekindled hopes for the peace process. However, if history is a guide, Hizballah and Iran—which worked tirelessly to undermine the Oslo Process—will try to sabotage such efforts. (Indeed, Israeli intelligence reports cited in the Israeli press indicate that they are preparing to do so.) Having emerged from the al-Aqsa Intifada as the principal outside actors in Palestinian politics and emboldened by what they see as recent successes, Hizballah and Iran could pose major obstacles to efforts to defuse the conflict and promote Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Czech Republic

181. Beyond Arafat: Palestinian Politics in the New Era

Author:: Ehud Ya'ari
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 6, 2004, Ehud Ya'ari addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Ya'ari is chief Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel 2 Television News, Middle East editor of the Jerusalem Report, and an associate of the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

182. Deciphering Palestinian Politics Post-Arafat

Author:: Khaled Abu Toameh
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 29, 2004, Khaled Abu Toameh addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Toameh, the West Bank correspondent for the Jerusalem Post and a special correspondent for U.S. News World Report, is the 2004 Ira and Betty Weiner visiting fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

183. Promoting a Ceasefire on the Palestinian-Israeli Front

Author:: David Makovsky and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Common wisdom holds that Arafat's departure from the scene opens promising new horizons to the future of the Palestinian people as well as to Palestinian-Israeli relations. But horizons, by definition, have the tricky nature of distancing themselves from you as you approach them, leaving you with the gloom of day-to-day reality. How, then, should the parties involved go about the mission of making the promises inherent in the new situation a reality rather than a Fata Morgana? The two first steps are: empowering the emerging new-old moderate Palestinian leadership through free democratic elections and creating a significantly improved security environment, free of the devastating effects of terror. Indeed, the security and political challenges need to be addressed simultaneously since they are intertwined. This article will discuss in detail the latter challenge and will suggest a phased approach toward a stable calm. Securing a violence-free environment (in relative, Middle Eastern terms) is essential. We have witnessed time and again how violence cripples Palestinian politics and undermines the prospects of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A violence-heavy environment puts tremendous pressure on both Palestinian and Israeli decisionmaking, narrowing the leeway for any compromise, and forcing short-term, emotionally-driven decisions over long-term, rationally-driven ones. Holding free, fair Palestinian elections, enabling smooth Israeli disengagement from Gaza and northern West Bank, and giving a chance to Israeli-Palestinian re-engagement and future relations all require a violence-free environment.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

184. Post-Arafat Transition: Upcoming Palestinian Elections

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the Palestinians seek to sort out the post-Arafat succession, ostensibly the first order of business is presidential elections. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has said it would hold presidential elections on January 9, 2005. However, making the election successful may require prior commitment to a cease fire, which in turn requires understandings among Palestinian factions accepted by Israel; this would be necessary to ensure peaceful conditions on the ground and the absence of Israeli military interruption during the election itself and the preceding campaign. According to the London-based Arab daily al-sharq al-Awsat, Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen), former Palestinian premier and newly named chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization drove home this point in two rounds of talks with Palestinian rejectionist groups over the last week. Abu Mazen is quoted as saying, "We need a safe, secure and calm internal situation, so we can hold elections. There is no possibility of holding elections while we are in a state of war and violent struggle. Elections need a secure environment that will allow for it to be done in a free and fair manner. Elections require freedom of movement and transportation to reach the ballot boxes and ensuring the participation of citizens." Indeed, there have been a variety of quotes from rejectionist leaders saying they may be willing to adhere to a unilateral ceasefire, but so far, there has been no definitive word from the main rejectionist group, Hamas. There have been a variety of reports that Hamas would agree to a ceasefire, but it seems that it will only if Israel accepts it as well. Israel may respect a truce brokered by Egypt among the Palestinian factions just as it consented to one during the summer of 2003. At the same time, it will be concerned that its acceptance not be exploited by undisciplined radicals in a way that ties Israel's hands and makes it vulnerable to attack. The last ceasefire fell apart because of differing understandings of its terms among the key protagonists. Unless that lesson is learned another truce is likely to fall apart, too. Another prerequisite for elections is that Abu Mazen needs to receive the nomination of the dominant Fatah party. Abu Mazen's nomination could easily be a formality, since so far, there is no real opposition. Yet, Fatah elections, while recognized by many as necessary, might be resisted by an Old Guard seeking to preserve its power. The issue of Fatah elections has been a dominant motif of the Young Guard. They believe that a combination of elections on all levels will have the cleansing effect of ridding the PA of old cronies of Yasser Arafat, who were beneficiaries of corruption. Moreover, it will inject new blood into a calcified system.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Czech Republic

185. In the Wake of Arafat: Palestinian Politics, Disengagement, and U.S. Policy

Author:: David Makovsky, Aaron David Miller, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A transfer of power within the Palestinian Authority, coupled with the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, presents both challenges and opportunities for reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The preconditions of past peace treaties between Israel and its Arab neighbors have demonstrated the necessity for calm on the ground and strong leaders who can force their constituents to accept peace. Unfortunately, the past four years of fighting, the lack of strong leadership, and the asymmetry of power between the Israelis and Palestinians all act as bulwarks against necessary change. The situation is complicated by the need to prevent Hamas and local warlords from expanding their power. Nevertheless, from the Israeli perspective, there are some opportunities for change. The disengagement plan proves that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon understands that Israel cannot sustain the settlements, while the continued construction of the West Bank fence presents opportunities for new negotiations.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

186. After Arafat: Challenges Ahead

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The convergence of Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene after four decades of domination and the imminent Israeli disengagement from Gaza (which will include the removal of settlements for the first time since 1967) represents a unique opportunity for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Arafat leaves behind a huge leadership void. With such prolonged centralized control over Palestinian affairs, he was everything in one man. He was the glue holding together all strata of Palestinian society—those living inside and outside the territories, Gazans and West Bankers, older and younger generations of activists, Islamists and leftists. He was the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Palestinian Authority, and the Fatah movement, and he personally controlled political, security, and economic decisionmaking as well as enormous funds. Many forces are likely to attempt to fill the vacuum and share in the inheritance. There are already signs of the emergence of a collective leadership composed of the veteran Fatah leadership, headed by Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) and Ahmad Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala) and supported by Fatah activists of the intermediate generation. They will divide Arafat's powers and responsibilities among themselves and seek to stabilize their rule based on the collective desire to preserve national unity. Over time, however, the internal contest over spoils and policies is likely to surface and threaten the new leadership. The imminent Israeli disengagement from Gaza, which is deeply dividing Palestinian society, will only add to the challenge.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

187. Domestic Political Challenges in the Israel-Palestinian Arena: Options for Sharon

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Two major developments have occurred within the past week in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. First, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon achieved an initial victory on October 26, when the Knesset voted in favor of disengagement from GazaNa significant step that has already created both opportunities and challenges. The vote was the first of many to come on the subject of Gaza withdrawal; the next such item on the parliament's agenda will be addressed on November 3, with a preliminary reading of a bill regarding compensation for Gaza settlers. Second, Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat's sudden hospitalization in Paris has raised new questions about Palestinian succession.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

188. A Decade of Israeli-Jordanian Peace: An Untold Economic Success Story

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ten years on, the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan has weathered a number of storms, including the passing away of King Hussein, four years of Israeli-Palestinian armed struggle, and war in Iraq. Despite considerable domestic anti-peace pressure on the Jordanian regime (nurtured by Islamist elements) and strained Israeli-Jordanian political relations, the two countries have developed impressive security and economic relations. The economic field in particular offers a ray of hope for the future, exemplifying how things could and should be done to enhance peace.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

189. Between Amman and Jerusalem: Reflections on Making Peace . . . And Making Peace Work

Author:: Efraim Halevy and Fayiz Tarawneh
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Jordan's ultimate strategic objective is peace in the Middle East. While the Jordan-Israel treaty remains seminal in importance for the Middle East and beyond, the continued bloodshed in the region sobers the anniversary celebration. The Jordan-Israel treaty reflected the courage and vision of King Hussein and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. Reaching agreement on this treaty was not always an easy process. The initial talks between the two countries in September 1993 resulted in a stalemate. The second round of talks in April 1994 was more successful, but when the United States was invited to serve as a guarantor, Washington balked at the idea of a Jordan-Israel treaty. Nevertheless, throughout the negotiations, Hussein and Rabin both demonstrated farsighted leadership and deep convictions about the absolute necessity of peace. They understood that they had to view each other as partners, not adversaries, and deal with each other directly. There is a place for third-party mediation and negotiation, but only when all other options have been exhausted and talks are at a standstill. The Jordan-Israel treaty and the Oslo negotiations are good examples of the efficacy of direct communication in peace talks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

190. The Palestinian Intifada: Lessons and Prospects (Part II)

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In late October 2004, the Israeli parliament will debate Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for "disengagement" from Gaza and the northern West Bank. This plan was born of Israel's experience over the course of the four-year-old Palestinian intifada. Understanding the rationale for disengagement requires a review of the lessons that Israel has learned from this conflict.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

191. Terror on the UN Payroll?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On October 4, 2004, Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) Peter Hansen unapologetically admitted to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) that the UN employs members of Hamas. "Oh, I am sure that there are Hamas members on the UNRWA payroll," Hansen stated, "and I don't see that as a crime." The fact that Palestinian terrorist groups have increasingly used civilian cover to facilitate their activities remains undisputed (notwithstanding the recent spat between Israel and the UN over drone reconnaissance pictures depicting what Israeli officials claimed were Hamas operatives transporting Qassam missiles in a UN ambulance, but which now appear to have been merely stretchers). In several documented cases, Palestinian terrorists have exploited employment with UN and other agencies to support their groups' activities.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

192. The Palestinian Intifada (Part I): Palestinian Lessons and Prospects

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Palestinian intifada against Israel, this week entering its fifth year, has wreaked havoc on both Israelis and Palestinians. In Palestinian quarters, it has provoked considerable soul-searching about the wisdom of resorting to terrorism as a tool in the confrontation with Israel. Yasser Arafat remains the Palestinians' paramount political leader, though his standing is diminished at home and abroad. Israel managed to considerably reduce the level and volume of terror against it, but also decided to disengage from Gaza.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

193. Despite Party Setbacks, Sharon Accelerates Disengagement Strategy

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite being rebuffed again by the Likud Party two weeks ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has been undeterred in pursuing disengagement. In publicly broadcast remarks, he informed his fractious parliamentary faction that he was planning to accelerate the timing of his plan for withdrawal from Gaza and four West Bank settlements by holding a cabinet vote not in March 2005, as had been expected, but on October 24 of this year. The actual removal of settlements would follow once the measure passed the Knesset. Having just returned from Israel and the West Bank, I came away with a distinct set of impressions regarding Sharon's motivations, the political levers he believes he has at his disposal in dealing with opponents inside and outside Likud, and the coalition configurations that he is weighing as he pursues his strategy to make disengagement a reality.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

194. The Threat of Jewish Terror in Israel and the West Bank

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Julie Sawyer
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In 1995, Jewish extremist Yigal Amir caught Israeli society off guard when he assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in an effort to derail the Labor government's pursuit of a peace accord with the Palestinian Authority (PA). Today, Israeli society is coming to terms with a similarly acute Jewish extremist threat to the life of a prime minister; this time, however, the target is the Likud Party's hawkish Ariel Sharon. Although the prospect of right-wing Jewish elements targeting a right-wing politician may surprise some, Jewish extremist violence has actually been on the rise over the past several years.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

195. Prospects of Israeli Disengagement: A Status Report

Author:: Dennis Ross and Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is absolutely determined to carry out disengagement despite the political problems within his own party. The demographic issue of ensuring a long-term Jewish democratic majority in Israel and the associated political pressure has fueled his determination to proceed with disengagement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

196. Unilaterally Constructed Barriers in Contested Areas

Author:: David Makovsky and Ben Thein
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is expected to issue an advisory opinion this Friday, July 9, on the international legality of Israel's security fence. Although advisory opinions are often sought from the ICJ before an international body has made up its mind on an issue, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly referred the matter to the ICJ after it had already condemned the Israeli move. Given the UN General Assembly vote on December 8, 2003, by a ninety-to-eight margin with seventy-four abstentions, a comparable number of states were expected to offer briefs to the ICJ. However, this was not the case.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

197. Israel's Security Fence: Effective in Reducing Suicide Attacks from the Northern West Bank

Author:: Zohar Palti
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The International Court of Justice is expected to rule this Friday, July 9, on the legality of Israel's security fence. The Palestinians strongly oppose the security fence, claiming that the fence negatively affects them. Israel is now seeking to address their concerns through a variety of means relating to the route of the fence and to the creation of a humanitarian office to minimize the impact of the fence on the Palestinians. At the same time, it is indisputable that the fence is succeeding in its main objective of minimizing the risk of infiltration to Israel by suicide bombers in the northern West Bank. The entire fence is expected to be completed by the end of next year.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

198. Assessing Hizballah's West Bank Foothold

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Zohar Palti
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When the IDF withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah realized that it had to change direction somewhat, primarily because it had lost its avowed justification (and any hint of international legitimacy) for carrying out attacks from Lebanon. Accordingly, Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general, instantly changed his rhetoric, focusing less on Lebanon and more on Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. In one speech, for example, he told Palestinians that it took Hizballah eighteen years to force Israel out of Lebanon, and that they could accomplish the same feat in even less time through armed struggle and suicide bombings.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

199. Sharon's Disengagement Plan: A Likud Perspective

Author:: Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 6, the Israeli government approved a plan for unilateral separation by a 14 to 7 vote. The plan includes complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip (with the exception of the so-called "Philadelphi Corridor" on the Egypt-Gaza border) and from certain West Bank settlements. It is scheduled to be implemented beginning in March 2005 and should be completed by the end of that year.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

200. After the Likud Referendum: The Future of the Sharon Government

Author:: Yosef (Tommy) Lapid
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 17, 2004, Israeli justice minister Yosef (Tommy) Lapid addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Lapid became head of the Shinui Party in 2000. Under his leadership, Shinui has rapidly grown in popularity and is now the third-largest faction in the 120-member Knesset and the second-largest in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's coalition. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Recent polls show that 70 to 80 percent of Israelis support Sharon's Gaza withdrawal initiative. Therefore, they are unlikely to accept the Likud Party referendum of May 2, 2004, rejecting this initiative. At the same time, Israel cannot afford to allow a post-withdrawal vacuum to emerge in the territories, which the Iranians could potentially fill (Tehran supports Hizballah, which in turn supplies Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad [PIJ]). Therefore, the withdrawal initiative must be altered somewhat from its original concept. Such a change would allow Sharon to say that he is accepting the ruling of his party while nevertheless moving forward with disengagement. His Gaza plan may turn out to be a three-stage process that is acceptable to Shinui. In any case, if an alternative formula is not proposed soon, Shinui will be forced to reconsider its participation in the government. We cannot sit idly and hope that Washington holds out on Israel's behalf against the interventionist tendencies—or so-called "goodwill"—of the Quartet. Shinui's formula for conflict management differs from that of both Sharon and the Israeli left, coming as it does from the center of the Israeli political spectrum. Shinui is well aware of the Roadmap's stipulation that measures must be taken against terrorism. Although Israel should indeed resume the reciprocal processes outlined in the Roadmap, it must also recognize that Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Abu Ala cannot dismantle Hamas and PIJ under the current circumstances without causing a civil war. Yasir Arafat does not want to make peace. Hence, Abu Ala must unite the PA's sixteen security organizations under one entity, which he should then head rather than allowing these forces to remain under Arafat's leadership. In the past, Shinui opposed talking to Abu Ala until he put a stop to terrorism, but the party has changed its stance for the time being. When Likud rejected Sharon's initiative, Shinui realized that the right was attempting to create a stalemate. Shinui cannot subscribe to any such policy. If these delay tactics continue, international parties may attempt to enter the arena both politically and physically. Israelis must therefore take the initiative to speak with Abu Ala based on the acknowledgment that he is unable to wage a comprehensive fight against terrorist organizations. If Likud does manage to move forward with disengagement in the near term, however, Shinui will rethink its policy toward Abu Ala.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

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