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Begin New Search Political Geography Iran Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

101. PolicyWatch #1368: Human Rights and the Basis for EU Sanctions against Iran

Author:
Emanuele Ottolenghi
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When the UN Security Council approved the third round of sanctions against Iran by adopting Resolution 1803 in March 2008, U.S. policymakers anticipated that the European Union would follow past practice and enact additional punitive measures. Almost two months later, however, Europeans are still at loggerheads on how best to implement the resolution, with several countries -- mostly the ones with strong commercial interests in Iran -- still adamant that the EU should not go beyond the text of the resolution. The EU could resolve this internal dispute by refocusing its sanctions debate on Iran's human rights record, an issue on which it is often easier to build consensus in Europe.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

102. PolicyWatch #1364: Iranian Parliamentary Elections and Ahmadinezhad's Discontents

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

103. PolicyWatch #1354: Cheney's Middle East Trip: Iran Tops a Weighty Agenda

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 16, Vice President Cheney departs on a Middle East trip that will take him to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Turkey. Coming less than two months after President Bush's trip to the region, the vice president's itinerary is intriguing. His undisclosed agenda with "key partners," in the words of the White House announcement, is likely to include the peace process, the price of oil, Iraq, and Iran. And among those issues, Iran will likely be the most mentioned, especially given this week's controversial resignation of Adm. William Fallon as the top U.S. commander in the Middle East -- a move attributed in part to differences on Iran between him and the White House.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

104. PolicyWatch #1350: Iran and the Road Ahead

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recently, two important developments have broken months of gridlock on the Iranian nuclear issue: a third round of UN sanctions and a new warning by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Although both measures are positive, their ultimate impact will depend on how aggressively and effectively key governments implement them.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

105. PolicyWatch #1345: Timely Reminder of Iranian Support for Terrorism

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the past several years, Iran's nuclear activities have commanded the attention of the international community. But the recent assassination of Hizballah foreign operations chief Imad Mughniyeh is a reminder that Iran has been -- and continues to be -- a key player in global terrorism, as its explicit sponsorship of Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) demonstrates. Moreover, a recent terrorism case in Bahrain suggests that Iran's assistance to al-Qaeda operatives may still be continuing today, echoing the regime's implicit support of the group in the past.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Bahrain

106. PolicyWatch #1342: Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

107. PolicyWatch #1334: Iranian Threats and the UN Sanctions Debate

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 26, Hussein Shariatmadari -- the publisher of Iran's most influential newspaper and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- stated that attacks on "Zionists, Americans, and European countries that support Israel," as well as on compliant regional rulers, were both morally permissible and easily carried out. Indeed, Iran's hardliners engage in not only heated rhetoric, but also heated action -- from funding terrorists to ignoring international nuclear mandates. Accordingly, while the UN Security Council attempts to set the agenda with a new round of sanctions, the hardliners may forgo passivity and go on the offensive.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

108. PolicyWatch #1330: Domestic Issues Trump Foreign Policy in Iran

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At each stop on his recent Middle East tour, President Bush centered his foreign policy agenda on the growing threat from Iran. But inside the Islamic Republic, domestic policies -- and not the international issues that Bush highlighted -- are at the center of political debate.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

109. PolicyWatch #1324: Raising the Costs for Tehran

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, questions are being raised as to whether sanctions and financial pressure remain a viable approach to changing Tehran's decisionmaking on its nuclear program. As evidence of this strategy's demise, critics point to the foundering attempts to negotiate a third round of UN sanctions against Iran -- sanctions that appeared imminent before the NIE's publication. While additional punitive measures by the UN are important and necessary, better enforcement of the various sanctions regimes already in place could have an equally significant impact.
Topic:
Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

110. 'Bad Veils' and Arrested Scholars: Iran's Fear of a Velvet Revolution

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite the public bluster of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime's behavior shows that it suffers from deep self-doubt. The arrests of visiting Iranian-born U.S. scholars Haleh Esfandiari (director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson Center) and Kian Tajbakhsh (a consultant for philanthropist George Soros's Open Society Institute programs) reflect Tehran's fear that political change could be easily sparked. A May 22 ABC News report that President Bush has authorized a covert CIA program against the regime will only add to Iran's suspicions.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

111. Building on a Vacuum: Ways Forward after the U.S.-Iranian Meeting

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The May 28 meeting between the U.S. and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq was mostly notable for its length -- four hours -- and the lack of anything to show for all that time together. And the very next day, Iran announced that three detained Iranian Americans visiting their homeland, including renowned scholar and women's rights advocate Haleh Esfandiari, were being formally charged with espionage -- charges that would be merely laughable if they were not so tragic.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

112. The British Naval Detainees and Iranian Public Opinion

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At an April 3 news conference in Tehran, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad unexpectedly announced the decision to release fifteen captured British marines and sailors. In a theatrical gesture that included assailing Western policy in the Middle East and accusing the British crew of entering Iranian waters, he pardoned the detainees to mark both the Prophet Muhammad's birthday on March 30 and what he reportedly called "Christian Passover." (In Farsi, "Pesah" means Passover and "Fash" means Easter. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency report of his remarks, the president used Pesah instead of Fash.)
Topic:
International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

113. An Iranian Financial Intelligence Unit: Less than Meets the Eye

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The State Department's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released on March 1, offers a little-noted reference to a dubious claim: an Iranian government statement (made to the UN) that Tehran has established a Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). The report notes that Iran has provided no further details. Even if the Iranian claim were true, the creation of an FIU would do little to combat terrorism financing in the nation, given Tehran's official support for terrorist groups. In other countries, FIUs are an important element of effective counterterrorism policy -- though the record of key Middle Eastern nations is somewhat mixed in this regard.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

114. Gulf Challenge: Iran's Seizure of British Naval Personnel

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 23, at 10:30 a.m. local Iraqi time, fifteen British naval personnel were seized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the northern Persian Gulf. The British personnel -- eight from the Royal Navy and seven from the Royal Marines -- were in two light craft returning to the frigate HMS Cornwall after successfully inspecting a merchant ship for goods being smuggled into Iraq. Iran has accused the personnel, who include one woman, of illegally entering Iranian territorial waters, and has threatened to put them on trial. The incident is a diplomatic and military embarrassment to Britain. Meanwhile, fears of escalation in the Gulf have contributed to a global surge in oil prices.
Topic:
International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

115. Can Syria Come in from the Cold?

Author:
Seth Wikas
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the coming weeks, Syria will participate in two important regional conferences. On March 10, it will join Iraq's other neighbors and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council in Baghdad. On March 28-29, it will participate in the Arab League summit in Riyadh. Syria's detractors continue to criticize Damascus for failing to seal the border with Iraq and for meddling in Lebanese internal affairs in violation of UN Security Resolution 1701. Of equal importance is the downturn in Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Last week's Saudi-Iranian summit has Damascus worried about its role in Lebanon and the possibility of an international tribunal on the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, a crime for which Syria is widely believed to be responsible. Will the upcoming conferences give Syria a chance to improve its regional standing, or will its isolation continue?
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

116. Saudi-Iranian Mediation on Hizballah: Will a Lebanon Deal Come at Syria's Expense?

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 20, the Lebanese cabinet—with a Hizballah-led opposition boycott—extended the term of the UN commission investigating the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. While the commission's work can now continue for as long as one more year, any future decision about organizing an international tribunal to try those indicted for the murder remains hostage to a vote—requiring the opposition's assent—in the paralyzed Lebanese parliament. Meanwhile, Hizballah continues to press its demand for increased political power within a “national unity” government, threatening civil disobedience should its demands not be met.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

117. Fighting Iran in Iraq

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The February 11 intelligence briefing in Baghdad revealed specific information about the transfer of weapons and weapons technology to Iranian allies in Iraq. This has furthered an extensive discussion of Iran's role in Iraq, especially as it relates to violence in the region. The involvement of Iran's clerical regime in Iraq is not new, or simple. It can be measured in decades, and is multifaceted and comprehensive, demanding an equally broad response from the United States and U.S. allies.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Baghdad

118. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca

119. Iran Feels the Heat: International Pressure Emboldens Tehran's Domestic Critics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As international pressure on the Iranian government toughens, the Iranian regime is facing more fragmentation at home. In an unprecedented action against a sitting president, 150 of the 290 members of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) signed a letter blaming President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad for raging inflation and high unemployment, and criticizing his travel to Latin America at a time when he has not sent the Majlis a draft budget for the fiscal year that starts March 21. Under Iranian law, this letter constitutes the first step required if the Majlis wants to remove the president from office.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Latin America

120. PolicyWatch #1315: Unwanted Guest: The Gulf Summit and Iran

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 3-4, Arab leaders representing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman met in the Qatari capital, Doha, for their annual Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) summit, which for the first time was attended by an Iranian president. In November, the UAE set a precedent by impounding an Iranian-bound shipment of undisclosed material banned by UN Security Council Resolutions 1737 and 1747 because of its potential use for nuclear weapons or missile programs. All of this came against the background of the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar

121. PolicyWatch #1313: How Much Does Weaponization Matter? Judging Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The just-released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," is about weaponization, not the enrichment and fuel cycle issues that have been the focus of multiple UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The NIE only suggests that Tehran has changed its sequence -- something that does not slow the country's progress toward a nuclear weapon by a single day. Therefore, it is not clear how this report affects the current thrust of U.S. policy: to stem Iran's nuclear fuel cycle capabilities.
Topic:
Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

122. PolicyWatch #1297: Iran Sanctions: Can They Be Effective?

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Today, the State and Treasury Departments announced a new package of sweeping unilateral sanctions targeting multiple entities in Iran, including three banks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Qods Force, the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, several IRGC-affiliated companies, and eight individuals. Can such sanctions be effective in halting Iran's nuclear program? If they are used as part of a comprehensive strategy to create diplomatic leverage, absolutely. Absent this leverage, however, policymakers will eventually be left with the unenviable task of deciding between using military force and tolerating a nuclear Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

123. PolicyWatch #1296: Larijani's Resignation: Implications for Iranian Nuclear Policy and Internal Politics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The October 20 announcement of Ali Larijani's resignation as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has intensified pressure on President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. Faced with criticism over the resignation, Tehran ensured that Larijani attended the Iran-European Union (EU) nuclear talks in Rome on October 23. His continued presence in the negotiations raises serious questions about who is in charge of Iran's nuclear policy and other key issues, making the regime's intentions even more of an enigma to the Europeans. As EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana stated after the Rome meeting, "I found the same Larijani I had met before, and he had the role of chief negotiator."
Topic:
Government and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Rome

124. PolicyWatch #1290: Losing Traction against Syria

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The September 6 Israeli bombing of a presumed North Korean-supplied nuclear weapons facility in Syria highlights the ongoing policy challenge posed by Damascus. More than three years after President Bush signed the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SAA), Syria continues to support terrorism, destabilize Iraq, meddle in Lebanon, and develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile systems. This week's headlines tell the story: on September 19, yet another anti-Syrian parliamentarian was assassinated in Lebanon; the same day, Jane's Defence Weekly reported that a July 2007 chemical weapons accident in Syria -- involving mustard gas and VX and sarin nerve agents -- killed fifteen Syrian officers and dozens of Iranian engineers.
Topic:
Diplomacy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Lebanon, and Syria

125. PolicyWatch #1281: Ahmadinezhad's Power Slipping in Iran

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two intriguing developments have unfolded in Iran over the past week: the election of a new Assembly of Experts Speaker on September 4 and the appointment of a new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander in chief on September 1. Both suggest the growing power of former president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a powerful politician who is openly critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and his policies.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

126. PolicyWatch #1274: The Smarter Way to Target Iran

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A terrorist designation for the Revolutionary Guards would mark the culmination of the administration's recent campaign to highlight the IRGC's dangerous activities. Speaking in Dubai in March 2007, U.S. undersecretary of the treasury Stuart Levey warned, "When corporations do business with IRGC companies, they are doing business with organizations that are providing direct support to terrorism." In a July 2007 speech, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson focused on the Revolutionary Guards, arguing, "The IRGC is so deeply entrenched in Iran's economy and commercial enterprises, it is increasingly likely that if you are doing business with Iran, you are somehow doing business with the IRGC."
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

127. PolicyWatch #1273: Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, Inc.

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Understanding the impact of Washington's expected designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization requires knowing what role the Revolutionary Guards play in Iranian society. Apart from being a military force with naval, air, and ground components organized in parallel to the conventional Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards are the spine of the current political structure and a major player in the Iranian economy.
Topic:
Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Middle East

128. PolicyWatch #1267: Dangerous Partners: Targeting the Iran-Hizballah Alliance

Author:
Jake Lipton and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
July 18 marked the thirteenth anniversary of Argentina's deadliest terrorist attack: a 1994 car bombing carried out by Hizballah at Iran's behest. The attack targeted the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), a Jewish community organization, killing 85 and wounding more than 200. Last week also saw the release of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) warning of an increased likelihood that Hizballah could attack U.S. soil if it, or Iran, feels directly threatened by the United States. Washington continues to take action against the organization, but given Hizballah's impressive fundraising capabilities and Iranian support -- both highlighted recently by Argentinean officials involved in the long-running AMIA case -- the task is challenging.
Topic:
Intelligence and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Argentina, and South America

129. PolicyWatch #1262: How Supreme Is Iran's Supreme Leader?

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Reports that Ayatollah Ali Meshkini has either died or is on the brink of death shed light on the nature of power in Iran. Meshkini is speaker of the Assembly of Experts -- a body that, despite its traditionally minor role in Iranian politics, is constitutionally empowered to not only elect a new Supreme Leader if the post becomes vacant, but also to dismiss a sitting leader. Current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot be pleased that this body may now be headed by deputy speaker Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a former president known to be a wily comeback artist. Although Khamenei has taken full advantage of the constitution to make the Supreme Leader the ultimate arbiter of Iranian politics, that could change depending on his health and Rafsanjani's scheming.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

130. PolicyWatch #1258: U.S. Support for the Iranian Opposition

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Directly reaching the Iranian people can be achieved in two ways: (1) supporting political opposition groups that explicitly advocate regime change, and (2) empowering human rights and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that do not directly engage in political action but support issues such as women and children's rights, labor rights, and religious freedom. Although the latter groups do not pursue political goals, the Iranian regime considers them subversive entities seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

131. PolicyWatch #1244: The PKK, PJAK, and Iran: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Zeynep Eroglu
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 8, a day after reports that Turkish troops had crossed into northern Iraq to pursue members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Iranian aircraft bombed the camps of the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), also in northern Iraq. PJAK, which operates in the mountains of northern Iraq and adjacent areas of Iran, has around 3,000 members. Analysts describe the group as the Iranian branch of the PKK, which has been carrying out attacks on Turkish military and civilian targets for decades and is on the State Department's list of foreign terrorist organizations. PJAK insists that it is distinct from the PKK, but interviews with its leaders and members, along with a look at its history, suggest that the two groups have similar ideologies and methodologies. They also share leadership and membership, in addition to operating in overlapping areas. Given that both Turkey and Iran view PJAK as a threat, the group poses unique challenges to U.S.-Turkish relations.
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

132. PolicyWatch #1243: Special Forum Report: When Diplomacy Failed: Lessons Learned from June 1967

Author:
Dennis Ross, Samuel Lewis, and Wendy Chamberlin
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The historical record has made it increasingly clear that in the May-June 1967 Middle East conflict, public assurances from world powers -- or the lack thereof -- greatly influenced the decisionmaking of regional leaders. Specifically, Soviet encouragement of Egypt -- both public and private -- played a large role in influencing Egyptian chief of staff and military commander Abdul Hakim Amer as he brought President Gamal Abdul Nasser to the brink of war with Israel. At the same time, however, the U.S. government under President Lyndon Johnson extended no parallel public assurances to Israel. This absence of commitment from a major foreign power or the UN in a moment of crisis affected the mindset of Israel's policymakers whenever they faced national security dilemmas thereafter, leading them to take many unilateral actions in subsequent years.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

133. Naval Exercises off Bahrain: Preventing Proliferation between North Korea and Iran

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
From October 30 to 31, 2006, U.S. military forces in the Persian Gulf will join the armed forces of several other countries to hold a naval exercise in the interception and search of ships carrying weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles. Though long planned, the exercise has added importance because of this month's nuclear test in North Korea and President George W. Bush's subsequent warning that Pyongyang will be “held to account” if it sells nuclear material to Iran or al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Asia, and North Korea

134. Iranian President Ahmadinezhad's Relations with Supreme Leader Khamenei

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As part of their close consultation over how to respond to the Iranian nuclear challenge, top officials from the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany met in Berlin on September 7. In developing a plan for influencing Iran, a key consideration is, who are the key decision-makers in Iran? In particular, what are the relative roles of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad? The record from Ahmadinezhad's first year in office suggests that at least on domestic policy, his actions have systematically reinforced Khamenei's authority.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran and Germany

135. Hizballah's Global Terror Option

Author:
Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
Topic:
International Relations and War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

136. Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Program

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 17, 2006, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog and Patrick Clawson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Herzog, an active officer in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. General Herzog recently published Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Program: A Potential Asset for the International Community, an Institute monograph available for free download. Dr. Clawson is deputy director for research at The Washington Institute, and recently published Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos. Mehdi Khalaji also contributed to the panel; his remarks appear in a separate PolicyWatch. The following is a rapporteur's summary of General Herzog and Dr. Clawson's remarks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Israel

137. Ahmadinezhad's Popularity One Year On

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Westerners believe Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad to be popular in Iran, in no small part because of his strong support for Iran's nuclear program. However, there is much evidence to the contrary. There is limited information available with which to form a judgment about the popularity of any politician or political program in Iran. The government forbids any independent opinion polling on matters as ordinary as the raging problem of drug addiction, let alone sensitive issues like negotiations with the United States or the nuclear program. The main sources of information for Western media are the statements and photographs that come from Iranian state media, or other Western journalists who go to Iran but cannot work freely in the face of government controls. The Western newsmedia has taken the massive turnouts at demonstrations in support of Ahmadinezhad and his nuclear policy as evidence of popular support for both. But the size of such demonstrations has no meaning beyond illustrating the efficiency of the regime's propaganda machine. Unfortunately, Western media take this propaganda for the truth. The Iranian regime has nearly succeeded in fashioning its own image and imposing it on its critics. Official results show Ahmadinezhad was elected by only 35 percent of eligible voters—in an election that was not free and fair, according to many top Iranian officials. Most of Ahmadinezhad's support came from rural regions and the poorer classes of Iranian society; these voters hoped that Ahmadinezhad's election would reduce corruption and raise their standard of living. Today there are clear signs of dissatisfaction within these constituencies. The evidence comes from independent journalists, blogs, and independent Iranian news websites which have reported increasing discontent with Ahmadinezhad's domestic policies.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

138. Iran's Shadow Government in Lebanon

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Having come into existence by virtue of Iranian military and financial patronage, Hizballah has used massive Iranian support to transform itself from a purely military group into an armed political party that has had an enduring impact on Lebanese political life and served as an outpost of Islamic fundamentalism in the region.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran and Lebanon

139. Hizballah Opens a Second Front

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The capture yesterday of two Israeli soldiers (eight more were killed) in a crossborder raid by the Lebanese group Hizballah, as Israeli forces in Gaza continued to search for an Israeli soldier kidnapped last week by Hamas and to clear Qassam rocket launch sites, marked the opening of a second front in the war against Israel being waged by these two Islamist terrorist groups and their state sponsors, Syria and Iran. These developments highlight the potential for further escalation and illustrate the rising dangers posed by the emergence of an anti-Israel and anti-American military axis comprised of Hamas, Hizballah, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:
Development, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
America, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Syria

140. Facing Iran's Challenge: Safeguarding Oil Exports from the Persian Gulf

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a June 4 speech marking the anniversary of the death of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a warning to the United States in the crisis of over Iran's nuclear program. “If the Americans make a wrong move toward Iran, the shipment of energy will definitely face danger, and the Americans would not be able to protect energy supply in the region,” Khamenei said. This raises questions about the strength of the Iranian military and how the United States could counter it, using military power, alternative export routes, or a combination of both.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

141. Iranian Azeris: A Giant Minority

Author:
Ali M. Koknar
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recently in Iran, tens of thousands of Iranian Azeris took to the streets for several days of demonstrations touched off by the May 12 publication of a racist cartoon in the state-run Iran newspaper. (The cartoon depicted an Azeri-speaking cockroach.) Iranian security forces cracked down violently on the demonstrators, killing at least four people (Azeri nationalists claim twenty dead), injuring forty-three, and detaining hundreds of others. These developments indicate brewing discontent among Iran's Azeri population and should be studied for their implications for U.S. and Western policy toward Tehran.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Tehran

142. Iran: International Pressure and Internal Conflict

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany consult today about what measures to take to influence Iran's decisions about its nuclear program, it is worth evaluating what impact outside pressure would have on President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's administration and its ability to overcome internal political and economic challenges. International pressure has already increased tensions between different factions within the Islamic Republic and laid bare the contradictory aspects of the president's political and cultural management.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:
Iran and Germany

143. Perils and Promise of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable interlocutor, and his recent statements on Syria and Hizballah typify his disregard for the conventions of the Lebanese political establishment. While many Lebanese may quietly support Jumblat's truth telling, his statements are sure to increase his list of powerful enemies.
Topic:
International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Syria

144. Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Threat with Reference to Pakistan's Experience

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 30, the Sunday Times of London reported that Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan had warned U.S. officials during a secret visit to Washington of covert Iranian plans for enriching uranium, which may mean Tehran was "nearer to acquiring nuclear weapons than widely believed." The same report quoted Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee chairman Yuval Steinitz as saying that Iran might be only a year from developing a bomb. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei is on the record as saying that, once Iran can enrich uranium in quantity, making an actual bomb would only take "a few months." And, in August 2005, the Washington Post reported that the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate "projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing [sufficient highly enriched uranium] for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years." In such circumstances it is small wonder if the public is confused, wondering whether some officials are exaggerating the potential danger of a nuclear-armed Iran while others seem to be almost irresponsibly unconcerned. In fact, the statements above are not mutually inconsistent, reflecting instead the discrepancy between hard fact and plausible interpretation. Since Iran's controversial uranium enrichment technology was initially acquired from Pakistan, an examination of that country's progress toward a nuclear bomb is both worthwhile and illuminating.
Topic:
Security and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Tehran

145. Preventing Turkey's Popular Slide away from the West

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iran's nuclear program presents one more issue on which Washington sees Middle East developments in a different light than does the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey. Since coming to power in November 2002, AKP leaders have pursued rapprochement with Damascus and enhanced dialogue with Iran. In March 2006, the AKP welcomed Hamas leaders in Ankara. It is surprising that Turkey, a traditional bastion of Western policies in the Middle East, is promoting close ties with anti-Western actors that have hurt Turkey for decades—Syria provided safe haven to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Iran supported the PKK and radical Islamist terrorists. Why do the Turkish people not resent such policies? The Iraq war and the U.S. agenda for political transformation in the Middle East have clashed with the Turkish people's desire to preserve the Middle Eastern political landscape. What is more, U.S. inaction against the PKK's Qandil enclave in Northern Iraq is angering most Turks in the way Syrian and Iranian support for the PKK upset them in the 1990s. Turkish confusion and anger toward the United States stands in sharp contrast with the improved image of Syria and Iran in Turkey. Meanwhile, with AKP discussing Middle Eastern politics in terms of Islamic codes, some Turks now identify with the region through Islam and not their national identity. The challenge for Washington is to find a way to prevent Turkey's popular slide away from the United States.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

146. How Much Do the EU and Russia Care about Iran?

Author:
Patrick Clawson, Walter Posch, and Vladimir Esveev
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 3, 2006, Walter Posch, Vladimir Esveev, and Patrick Clawson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Walter Posch is a research fellow at the European Union's Institute for Security Studies in Paris. Vladimir Esveev is a senior associate at the Center for International Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. Patrick Clawson, a senior fellow and deputy director for research at The Washington Institute, is coauthor with Michael Rubin of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave, 2005). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Washington, and Moscow

147. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

148. Miscommunication between Iranian Society and the West on Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent months, the growing controversy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and Western suspicions about the military intentions of the Iranian regime has reached a crucial phase. A serious problem for the Western campaign to press the Islamic Republic about its nuclear program is that Iranian society has been indifferent or hostile to the West's efforts. The United States in particular needs to find ways to reenergize its outreach to Iranian society.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

149. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation

Author:
Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Middle East

150. Creating Effective International Pressure for Human Rights in Iran

Author:
Khairi Abaza and Mark Nakhla
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 2, the UN General Assembly's Third Committee is due to consider a Canadian resolution condemning Iran for human rights violations. A similar resolution was approved by the General Assembly in 2004 by a vote of 71-54 with fifty-five abstentions. Iran's human rights violations have recently worsened, and the Iranian government is becoming less concerned about international complaints on the matter.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Canada, and North Africa