Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Iran

101. PolicyWatch #1368: Human Rights and the Basis for EU Sanctions against Iran

Author:: Emanuele Ottolenghi
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When the UN Security Council approved the third round of sanctions against Iran by adopting Resolution 1803 in March 2008, U.S. policymakers anticipated that the European Union would follow past practice and enact additional punitive measures. Almost two months later, however, Europeans are still at loggerheads on how best to implement the resolution, with several countries -- mostly the ones with strong commercial interests in Iran -- still adamant that the EU should not go beyond the text of the resolution. The EU could resolve this internal dispute by refocusing its sanctions debate on Iran's human rights record, an issue on which it is often easier to build consensus in Europe.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

102. PolicyWatch #1364: Iranian Parliamentary Elections and Ahmadinezhad's Discontents

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

103. PolicyWatch #1354: Cheney's Middle East Trip: Iran Tops a Weighty Agenda

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 16, Vice President Cheney departs on a Middle East trip that will take him to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Turkey. Coming less than two months after President Bush's trip to the region, the vice president's itinerary is intriguing. His undisclosed agenda with "key partners," in the words of the White House announcement, is likely to include the peace process, the price of oil, Iraq, and Iran. And among those issues, Iran will likely be the most mentioned, especially given this week's controversial resignation of Adm. William Fallon as the top U.S. commander in the Middle East -- a move attributed in part to differences on Iran between him and the White House.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

104. PolicyWatch #1350: Iran and the Road Ahead

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, two important developments have broken months of gridlock on the Iranian nuclear issue: a third round of UN sanctions and a new warning by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Although both measures are positive, their ultimate impact will depend on how aggressively and effectively key governments implement them.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

105. PolicyWatch #1345: Timely Reminder of Iranian Support for Terrorism

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past several years, Iran's nuclear activities have commanded the attention of the international community. But the recent assassination of Hizballah foreign operations chief Imad Mughniyeh is a reminder that Iran has been -- and continues to be -- a key player in global terrorism, as its explicit sponsorship of Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) demonstrates. Moreover, a recent terrorism case in Bahrain suggests that Iran's assistance to al-Qaeda operatives may still be continuing today, echoing the regime's implicit support of the group in the past.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Bahrain

106. PolicyWatch #1342: Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

107. PolicyWatch #1334: Iranian Threats and the UN Sanctions Debate

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 26, Hussein Shariatmadari -- the publisher of Iran's most influential newspaper and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- stated that attacks on "Zionists, Americans, and European countries that support Israel," as well as on compliant regional rulers, were both morally permissible and easily carried out. Indeed, Iran's hardliners engage in not only heated rhetoric, but also heated action -- from funding terrorists to ignoring international nuclear mandates. Accordingly, while the UN Security Council attempts to set the agenda with a new round of sanctions, the hardliners may forgo passivity and go on the offensive.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

108. PolicyWatch #1330: Domestic Issues Trump Foreign Policy in Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At each stop on his recent Middle East tour, President Bush centered his foreign policy agenda on the growing threat from Iran. But inside the Islamic Republic, domestic policies -- and not the international issues that Bush highlighted -- are at the center of political debate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

109. PolicyWatch #1324: Raising the Costs for Tehran

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, questions are being raised as to whether sanctions and financial pressure remain a viable approach to changing Tehran's decisionmaking on its nuclear program. As evidence of this strategy's demise, critics point to the foundering attempts to negotiate a third round of UN sanctions against Iran -- sanctions that appeared imminent before the NIE's publication. While additional punitive measures by the UN are important and necessary, better enforcement of the various sanctions regimes already in place could have an equally significant impact.
Topic:: Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

110. 'Bad Veils' and Arrested Scholars: Iran's Fear of a Velvet Revolution

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite the public bluster of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime's behavior shows that it suffers from deep self-doubt. The arrests of visiting Iranian-born U.S. scholars Haleh Esfandiari (director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson Center) and Kian Tajbakhsh (a consultant for philanthropist George Soros's Open Society Institute programs) reflect Tehran's fear that political change could be easily sparked. A May 22 ABC News report that President Bush has authorized a covert CIA program against the regime will only add to Iran's suspicions.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

111. Building on a Vacuum: Ways Forward after the U.S.-Iranian Meeting

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The May 28 meeting between the U.S. and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq was mostly notable for its length -- four hours -- and the lack of anything to show for all that time together. And the very next day, Iran announced that three detained Iranian Americans visiting their homeland, including renowned scholar and women's rights advocate Haleh Esfandiari, were being formally charged with espionage -- charges that would be merely laughable if they were not so tragic.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

112. The British Naval Detainees and Iranian Public Opinion

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At an April 3 news conference in Tehran, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad unexpectedly announced the decision to release fifteen captured British marines and sailors. In a theatrical gesture that included assailing Western policy in the Middle East and accusing the British crew of entering Iranian waters, he pardoned the detainees to mark both the Prophet Muhammad's birthday on March 30 and what he reportedly called "Christian Passover." (In Farsi, "Pesah" means Passover and "Fash" means Easter. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency report of his remarks, the president used Pesah instead of Fash.)
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

113. An Iranian Financial Intelligence Unit: Less than Meets the Eye

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released on March 1, offers a little-noted reference to a dubious claim: an Iranian government statement (made to the UN) that Tehran has established a Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). The report notes that Iran has provided no further details. Even if the Iranian claim were true, the creation of an FIU would do little to combat terrorism financing in the nation, given Tehran's official support for terrorist groups. In other countries, FIUs are an important element of effective counterterrorism policy -- though the record of key Middle Eastern nations is somewhat mixed in this regard.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

114. Gulf Challenge: Iran's Seizure of British Naval Personnel

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 23, at 10:30 a.m. local Iraqi time, fifteen British naval personnel were seized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the northern Persian Gulf. The British personnel -- eight from the Royal Navy and seven from the Royal Marines -- were in two light craft returning to the frigate HMS Cornwall after successfully inspecting a merchant ship for goods being smuggled into Iraq. Iran has accused the personnel, who include one woman, of illegally entering Iranian territorial waters, and has threatened to put them on trial. The incident is a diplomatic and military embarrassment to Britain. Meanwhile, fears of escalation in the Gulf have contributed to a global surge in oil prices.
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

115. Can Syria Come in from the Cold?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the coming weeks, Syria will participate in two important regional conferences. On March 10, it will join Iraq's other neighbors and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council in Baghdad. On March 28-29, it will participate in the Arab League summit in Riyadh. Syria's detractors continue to criticize Damascus for failing to seal the border with Iraq and for meddling in Lebanese internal affairs in violation of UN Security Resolution 1701. Of equal importance is the downturn in Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Last week's Saudi-Iranian summit has Damascus worried about its role in Lebanon and the possibility of an international tribunal on the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, a crime for which Syria is widely believed to be responsible. Will the upcoming conferences give Syria a chance to improve its regional standing, or will its isolation continue?
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

116. Saudi-Iranian Mediation on Hizballah: Will a Lebanon Deal Come at Syria's Expense?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 20, the Lebanese cabinet—with a Hizballah-led opposition boycott—extended the term of the UN commission investigating the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. While the commission's work can now continue for as long as one more year, any future decision about organizing an international tribunal to try those indicted for the murder remains hostage to a vote—requiring the opposition's assent—in the paralyzed Lebanese parliament. Meanwhile, Hizballah continues to press its demand for increased political power within a “national unity” government, threatening civil disobedience should its demands not be met.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

117. Fighting Iran in Iraq

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The February 11 intelligence briefing in Baghdad revealed specific information about the transfer of weapons and weapons technology to Iranian allies in Iraq. This has furthered an extensive discussion of Iran's role in Iraq, especially as it relates to violence in the region. The involvement of Iran's clerical regime in Iraq is not new, or simple. It can be measured in decades, and is multifaceted and comprehensive, demanding an equally broad response from the United States and U.S. allies.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Baghdad

118. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca

119. Iran Feels the Heat: International Pressure Emboldens Tehran's Domestic Critics

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As international pressure on the Iranian government toughens, the Iranian regime is facing more fragmentation at home. In an unprecedented action against a sitting president, 150 of the 290 members of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) signed a letter blaming President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad for raging inflation and high unemployment, and criticizing his travel to Latin America at a time when he has not sent the Majlis a draft budget for the fiscal year that starts March 21. Under Iranian law, this letter constitutes the first step required if the Majlis wants to remove the president from office.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Latin America

120. PolicyWatch #1315: Unwanted Guest: The Gulf Summit and Iran

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 3-4, Arab leaders representing Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman met in the Qatari capital, Doha, for their annual Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) summit, which for the first time was attended by an Iranian president. In November, the UAE set a precedent by impounding an Iranian-bound shipment of undisclosed material banned by UN Security Council Resolutions 1737 and 1747 because of its potential use for nuclear weapons or missile programs. All of this came against the background of the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which assessed that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar

121. PolicyWatch #1313: How Much Does Weaponization Matter? Judging Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The just-released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," is about weaponization, not the enrichment and fuel cycle issues that have been the focus of multiple UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The NIE only suggests that Tehran has changed its sequence -- something that does not slow the country's progress toward a nuclear weapon by a single day. Therefore, it is not clear how this report affects the current thrust of U.S. policy: to stem Iran's nuclear fuel cycle capabilities.
Topic:: Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

122. PolicyWatch #1297: Iran Sanctions: Can They Be Effective?

Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today, the State and Treasury Departments announced a new package of sweeping unilateral sanctions targeting multiple entities in Iran, including three banks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Qods Force, the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, several IRGC-affiliated companies, and eight individuals. Can such sanctions be effective in halting Iran's nuclear program? If they are used as part of a comprehensive strategy to create diplomatic leverage, absolutely. Absent this leverage, however, policymakers will eventually be left with the unenviable task of deciding between using military force and tolerating a nuclear Iran.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

123. PolicyWatch #1296: Larijani's Resignation: Implications for Iranian Nuclear Policy and Internal Politics

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The October 20 announcement of Ali Larijani's resignation as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has intensified pressure on President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. Faced with criticism over the resignation, Tehran ensured that Larijani attended the Iran-European Union (EU) nuclear talks in Rome on October 23. His continued presence in the negotiations raises serious questions about who is in charge of Iran's nuclear policy and other key issues, making the regime's intentions even more of an enigma to the Europeans. As EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana stated after the Rome meeting, "I found the same Larijani I had met before, and he had the role of chief negotiator."
Topic:: Government and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Rome

124. PolicyWatch #1290: Losing Traction against Syria

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 6 Israeli bombing of a presumed North Korean-supplied nuclear weapons facility in Syria highlights the ongoing policy challenge posed by Damascus. More than three years after President Bush signed the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SAA), Syria continues to support terrorism, destabilize Iraq, meddle in Lebanon, and develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile systems. This week's headlines tell the story: on September 19, yet another anti-Syrian parliamentarian was assassinated in Lebanon; the same day, Jane's Defence Weekly reported that a July 2007 chemical weapons accident in Syria -- involving mustard gas and VX and sarin nerve agents -- killed fifteen Syrian officers and dozens of Iranian engineers.
Topic:: Diplomacy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Lebanon, and Syria

125. PolicyWatch #1281: Ahmadinezhad's Power Slipping in Iran

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Two intriguing developments have unfolded in Iran over the past week: the election of a new Assembly of Experts Speaker on September 4 and the appointment of a new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander in chief on September 1. Both suggest the growing power of former president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a powerful politician who is openly critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and his policies.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

126. PolicyWatch #1274: The Smarter Way to Target Iran

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A terrorist designation for the Revolutionary Guards would mark the culmination of the administration's recent campaign to highlight the IRGC's dangerous activities. Speaking in Dubai in March 2007, U.S. undersecretary of the treasury Stuart Levey warned, "When corporations do business with IRGC companies, they are doing business with organizations that are providing direct support to terrorism." In a July 2007 speech, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson focused on the Revolutionary Guards, arguing, "The IRGC is so deeply entrenched in Iran's economy and commercial enterprises, it is increasingly likely that if you are doing business with Iran, you are somehow doing business with the IRGC."
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

127. PolicyWatch #1273: Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, Inc.

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Understanding the impact of Washington's expected designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization requires knowing what role the Revolutionary Guards play in Iranian society. Apart from being a military force with naval, air, and ground components organized in parallel to the conventional Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards are the spine of the current political structure and a major player in the Iranian economy.
Topic:: Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

128. PolicyWatch #1267: Dangerous Partners: Targeting the Iran-Hizballah Alliance

Author:: Jake Lipton and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: July 18 marked the thirteenth anniversary of Argentina's deadliest terrorist attack: a 1994 car bombing carried out by Hizballah at Iran's behest. The attack targeted the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), a Jewish community organization, killing 85 and wounding more than 200. Last week also saw the release of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) warning of an increased likelihood that Hizballah could attack U.S. soil if it, or Iran, feels directly threatened by the United States. Washington continues to take action against the organization, but given Hizballah's impressive fundraising capabilities and Iranian support -- both highlighted recently by Argentinean officials involved in the long-running AMIA case -- the task is challenging.
Topic:: Intelligence and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Argentina, and South America

129. PolicyWatch #1262: How Supreme Is Iran's Supreme Leader?

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Reports that Ayatollah Ali Meshkini has either died or is on the brink of death shed light on the nature of power in Iran. Meshkini is speaker of the Assembly of Experts -- a body that, despite its traditionally minor role in Iranian politics, is constitutionally empowered to not only elect a new Supreme Leader if the post becomes vacant, but also to dismiss a sitting leader. Current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot be pleased that this body may now be headed by deputy speaker Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a former president known to be a wily comeback artist. Although Khamenei has taken full advantage of the constitution to make the Supreme Leader the ultimate arbiter of Iranian politics, that could change depending on his health and Rafsanjani's scheming.
Topic:: Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

130. PolicyWatch #1258: U.S. Support for the Iranian Opposition

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Directly reaching the Iranian people can be achieved in two ways: (1) supporting political opposition groups that explicitly advocate regime change, and (2) empowering human rights and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that do not directly engage in political action but support issues such as women and children's rights, labor rights, and religious freedom. Although the latter groups do not pursue political goals, the Iranian regime considers them subversive entities seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

131. PolicyWatch #1244: The PKK, PJAK, and Iran: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Zeynep Eroglu
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 8, a day after reports that Turkish troops had crossed into northern Iraq to pursue members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Iranian aircraft bombed the camps of the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), also in northern Iraq. PJAK, which operates in the mountains of northern Iraq and adjacent areas of Iran, has around 3,000 members. Analysts describe the group as the Iranian branch of the PKK, which has been carrying out attacks on Turkish military and civilian targets for decades and is on the State Department's list of foreign terrorist organizations. PJAK insists that it is distinct from the PKK, but interviews with its leaders and members, along with a look at its history, suggest that the two groups have similar ideologies and methodologies. They also share leadership and membership, in addition to operating in overlapping areas. Given that both Turkey and Iran view PJAK as a threat, the group poses unique challenges to U.S.-Turkish relations.
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

132. PolicyWatch #1243: Special Forum Report: When Diplomacy Failed: Lessons Learned from June 1967

Author:: Dennis Ross, Samuel Lewis, and Wendy Chamberlin
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The historical record has made it increasingly clear that in the May-June 1967 Middle East conflict, public assurances from world powers -- or the lack thereof -- greatly influenced the decisionmaking of regional leaders. Specifically, Soviet encouragement of Egypt -- both public and private -- played a large role in influencing Egyptian chief of staff and military commander Abdul Hakim Amer as he brought President Gamal Abdul Nasser to the brink of war with Israel. At the same time, however, the U.S. government under President Lyndon Johnson extended no parallel public assurances to Israel. This absence of commitment from a major foreign power or the UN in a moment of crisis affected the mindset of Israel's policymakers whenever they faced national security dilemmas thereafter, leading them to take many unilateral actions in subsequent years.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

133. Naval Exercises off Bahrain: Preventing Proliferation between North Korea and Iran

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: From October 30 to 31, 2006, U.S. military forces in the Persian Gulf will join the armed forces of several other countries to hold a naval exercise in the interception and search of ships carrying weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles. Though long planned, the exercise has added importance because of this month's nuclear test in North Korea and President George W. Bush's subsequent warning that Pyongyang will be “held to account” if it sells nuclear material to Iran or al-Qaeda.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Asia, and North Korea

134. Iranian President Ahmadinezhad's Relations with Supreme Leader Khamenei

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As part of their close consultation over how to respond to the Iranian nuclear challenge, top officials from the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany met in Berlin on September 7. In developing a plan for influencing Iran, a key consideration is, who are the key decision-makers in Iran? In particular, what are the relative roles of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad? The record from Ahmadinezhad's first year in office suggests that at least on domestic policy, his actions have systematically reinforced Khamenei's authority.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Germany

135. Hizballah's Global Terror Option

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

136. Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Program

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 17, 2006, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog and Patrick Clawson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Herzog, an active officer in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. General Herzog recently published Iranian Public Opinion on the Nuclear Program: A Potential Asset for the International Community, an Institute monograph available for free download. Dr. Clawson is deputy director for research at The Washington Institute, and recently published Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos. Mehdi Khalaji also contributed to the panel; his remarks appear in a separate PolicyWatch. The following is a rapporteur's summary of General Herzog and Dr. Clawson's remarks.
Topic:: Civil Society, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Israel

137. Ahmadinezhad's Popularity One Year On

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Westerners believe Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad to be popular in Iran, in no small part because of his strong support for Iran's nuclear program. However, there is much evidence to the contrary. There is limited information available with which to form a judgment about the popularity of any politician or political program in Iran. The government forbids any independent opinion polling on matters as ordinary as the raging problem of drug addiction, let alone sensitive issues like negotiations with the United States or the nuclear program. The main sources of information for Western media are the statements and photographs that come from Iranian state media, or other Western journalists who go to Iran but cannot work freely in the face of government controls. The Western newsmedia has taken the massive turnouts at demonstrations in support of Ahmadinezhad and his nuclear policy as evidence of popular support for both. But the size of such demonstrations has no meaning beyond illustrating the efficiency of the regime's propaganda machine. Unfortunately, Western media take this propaganda for the truth. The Iranian regime has nearly succeeded in fashioning its own image and imposing it on its critics. Official results show Ahmadinezhad was elected by only 35 percent of eligible voters—in an election that was not free and fair, according to many top Iranian officials. Most of Ahmadinezhad's support came from rural regions and the poorer classes of Iranian society; these voters hoped that Ahmadinezhad's election would reduce corruption and raise their standard of living. Today there are clear signs of dissatisfaction within these constituencies. The evidence comes from independent journalists, blogs, and independent Iranian news websites which have reported increasing discontent with Ahmadinezhad's domestic policies.
Topic:: Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

138. Iran's Shadow Government in Lebanon

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Having come into existence by virtue of Iranian military and financial patronage, Hizballah has used massive Iranian support to transform itself from a purely military group into an armed political party that has had an enduring impact on Lebanese political life and served as an outpost of Islamic fundamentalism in the region.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran and Lebanon

139. Hizballah Opens a Second Front

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The capture yesterday of two Israeli soldiers (eight more were killed) in a crossborder raid by the Lebanese group Hizballah, as Israeli forces in Gaza continued to search for an Israeli soldier kidnapped last week by Hamas and to clear Qassam rocket launch sites, marked the opening of a second front in the war against Israel being waged by these two Islamist terrorist groups and their state sponsors, Syria and Iran. These developments highlight the potential for further escalation and illustrate the rising dangers posed by the emergence of an anti-Israel and anti-American military axis comprised of Hamas, Hizballah, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:: Development, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: America, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Syria

140. Facing Iran's Challenge: Safeguarding Oil Exports from the Persian Gulf

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a June 4 speech marking the anniversary of the death of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a warning to the United States in the crisis of over Iran's nuclear program. “If the Americans make a wrong move toward Iran, the shipment of energy will definitely face danger, and the Americans would not be able to protect energy supply in the region,” Khamenei said. This raises questions about the strength of the Iranian military and how the United States could counter it, using military power, alternative export routes, or a combination of both.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

141. Iranian Azeris: A Giant Minority

Author:: Ali M. Koknar
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently in Iran, tens of thousands of Iranian Azeris took to the streets for several days of demonstrations touched off by the May 12 publication of a racist cartoon in the state-run Iran newspaper. (The cartoon depicted an Azeri-speaking cockroach.) Iranian security forces cracked down violently on the demonstrators, killing at least four people (Azeri nationalists claim twenty dead), injuring forty-three, and detaining hundreds of others. These developments indicate brewing discontent among Iran's Azeri population and should be studied for their implications for U.S. and Western policy toward Tehran.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Tehran

142. Iran: International Pressure and Internal Conflict

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany consult today about what measures to take to influence Iran's decisions about its nuclear program, it is worth evaluating what impact outside pressure would have on President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's administration and its ability to overcome internal political and economic challenges. International pressure has already increased tensions between different factions within the Islamic Republic and laid bare the contradictory aspects of the president's political and cultural management.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Iran and Germany

143. Perils and Promise of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable interlocutor, and his recent statements on Syria and Hizballah typify his disregard for the conventions of the Lebanese political establishment. While many Lebanese may quietly support Jumblat's truth telling, his statements are sure to increase his list of powerful enemies.
Topic:: International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Syria

144. Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Threat with Reference to Pakistan's Experience

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 30, the Sunday Times of London reported that Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan had warned U.S. officials during a secret visit to Washington of covert Iranian plans for enriching uranium, which may mean Tehran was "nearer to acquiring nuclear weapons than widely believed." The same report quoted Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee chairman Yuval Steinitz as saying that Iran might be only a year from developing a bomb. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei is on the record as saying that, once Iran can enrich uranium in quantity, making an actual bomb would only take "a few months." And, in August 2005, the Washington Post reported that the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate "projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing [sufficient highly enriched uranium] for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years." In such circumstances it is small wonder if the public is confused, wondering whether some officials are exaggerating the potential danger of a nuclear-armed Iran while others seem to be almost irresponsibly unconcerned. In fact, the statements above are not mutually inconsistent, reflecting instead the discrepancy between hard fact and plausible interpretation. Since Iran's controversial uranium enrichment technology was initially acquired from Pakistan, an examination of that country's progress toward a nuclear bomb is both worthwhile and illuminating.
Topic:: Security and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Tehran

145. Preventing Turkey's Popular Slide away from the West

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's nuclear program presents one more issue on which Washington sees Middle East developments in a different light than does the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey. Since coming to power in November 2002, AKP leaders have pursued rapprochement with Damascus and enhanced dialogue with Iran. In March 2006, the AKP welcomed Hamas leaders in Ankara. It is surprising that Turkey, a traditional bastion of Western policies in the Middle East, is promoting close ties with anti-Western actors that have hurt Turkey for decades—Syria provided safe haven to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Iran supported the PKK and radical Islamist terrorists. Why do the Turkish people not resent such policies? The Iraq war and the U.S. agenda for political transformation in the Middle East have clashed with the Turkish people's desire to preserve the Middle Eastern political landscape. What is more, U.S. inaction against the PKK's Qandil enclave in Northern Iraq is angering most Turks in the way Syrian and Iranian support for the PKK upset them in the 1990s. Turkish confusion and anger toward the United States stands in sharp contrast with the improved image of Syria and Iran in Turkey. Meanwhile, with AKP discussing Middle Eastern politics in terms of Islamic codes, some Turks now identify with the region through Islam and not their national identity. The challenge for Washington is to find a way to prevent Turkey's popular slide away from the United States.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

146. How Much Do the EU and Russia Care about Iran?

Author:: Patrick Clawson, Walter Posch, and Vladimir Esveev
Publication Date:: 04-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 3, 2006, Walter Posch, Vladimir Esveev, and Patrick Clawson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Walter Posch is a research fellow at the European Union's Institute for Security Studies in Paris. Vladimir Esveev is a senior associate at the Center for International Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. Patrick Clawson, a senior fellow and deputy director for research at The Washington Institute, is coauthor with Michael Rubin of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave, 2005). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Washington, and Moscow

147. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

148. Miscommunication between Iranian Society and the West on Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent months, the growing controversy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and Western suspicions about the military intentions of the Iranian regime has reached a crucial phase. A serious problem for the Western campaign to press the Islamic Republic about its nuclear program is that Iranian society has been indifferent or hostile to the West's efforts. The United States in particular needs to find ways to reenergize its outreach to Iranian society.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

149. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation

Author:: Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

150. Creating Effective International Pressure for Human Rights in Iran

Author:: Khairi Abaza and Mark Nakhla
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 2, the UN General Assembly's Third Committee is due to consider a Canadian resolution condemning Iran for human rights violations. A similar resolution was approved by the General Assembly in 2004 by a vote of 71-54 with fifty-five abstentions. Iran's human rights violations have recently worsened, and the Iranian government is becoming less concerned about international complaints on the matter.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Canada, and North Africa

151. Iranian Media Reactions to the Nuclear Impasse

Author:: Sana Nourani
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's hardline establishment often declares that all Iranian citizens are united in their determination to see Iran exercise its "right" to nuclear power and "self-sufficiency" — that is, operation of the complete fuel cycle. But are all Iranians really so enthused by the national nuclear program and heedless of international repercussions? What follows is a collection of Iranian reactions to the recent nuclear impasse.
Topic:: Civil Society and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

152. Challenges Facing Iran's New Government

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji and Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's bold August 7 decision to resume uranium conversion—previously frozen under an agreement with Britain, France, and Germany—came only four days after new president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office. This confrontational step suggests that the new administration may take strong actions to advance its hardline agenda. At the same time, the new government may not be as unified as it appears. Signs of serious division have emerged among the ruling elite, and these differences could preoccupy Iranian politicians for some time to come.
Topic:: Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

153. The Three-Way Game: Iran, Iraq, and the United States

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi's preparatory visit to Iran on July 5–7. At a joint press conference on July 7 with his Iranian counterpart, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the Iraqi official fell victim to the oldest trick in the Iranian diplomatic playbook. Speaking well beyond what had been agreed by the two sides, Shamkhani announced “wide defense cooperation” and alluded to the imminent conclusion of a defense pact between the two countries (as Iran has done in the past with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). Al-Dulaimi was likewise forced to clarify the limited nature of the discussions while also taking pains to state, “Iraq will not be a source of insecurity and instability for any of its neighbors. Nobody can use [Iraqi territory] to attack its neighbors.” The message to both Tehran and Washington was clear: the three-way game between the governments of Iran, Iraq, and the United States has begun again. With Iraq caught in the middle, Baghdad intends to play an increasingly autonomous role as the game unfolds.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

154. The New Iranian Government: Resurrecting Past Errors

Author:: Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 29, 2005, Iran's Guardian Council confirmed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as winner of the June 24 presidential election, as dictated by Iran's constitution and in accordance with the wishes of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He will take office on August 4. The fact that Ahmadinejad won the election would have meant nothing unless Khamenei approved the results. While the president is titular head of the Iranian government, he is at most second-in-command after the Supreme Leader. In order to understand how the Ahmadinejad presidency will unfold, then, one must first realize that Khamenei will now have even more direct powers than before.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

155. The Equation of Fear

Author:: Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Once again the Iranian nation is at a fork in the road: a choice between worse and worst. It is not clear when it will have the possibility of choosing, under a democratic structure, between better and best. A problematic election and the intervention of the armed services in politics have created a bitter equation, on one side of which stands a fascistic reading of religion. The people of Iran, in shock and fearful of the nightmare before them, are being invited to the other side of the equation, namely, to support Hashemi Rafsanjani. If they do so, in two months time they will have to add another disappointment to the many that have afflicted their nation.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

156. Iran's Presidential Election: The Candidates Speak

Author:: Naysan Rafati
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranians will head back to the polls on June 24 to decide an unprecedented presidential runoff pitting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Ahmadinejad, mayor of Tehran, defied pre-election forecasts by reportedly finishing with 5,710,354 (19.5 percent) of the 29,317,042 ballots cast in the original election on June 17. Rafsanjani, president from 1989 to 1997 and current chairman of the Expediency Council, reportedly received 6,159,452 votes (21 percent). The following is a survey of each candidate's recent statements on a range of domestic and foreign policy issues. It should be noted that their past statements on some of these issues may differ with what they have said in the past few weeks.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

157. Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria's occupation, Hizballah focuses on rejecting international interference in Lebanese affairs. Yet, if Iran and Hizballah are permitted to fill the void created by a Syrian departure, Lebanon will continue to be subjected to such foreign interference. Such a development would also increase the potential for escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, with possible regional spillover. Accordingly, while encouraging the ongoing historic events in Lebanon and pushing for an end to Syrian domination, the international community should not neglect two other key implications of UN Security Council Resolution 1559: ending the Iranian presence and disarming Hizballah.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

158. Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign an agreement on the delivery of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr power plant is now set for January. Meanwhile, early January will see the second round of negotiations between the Europeans and Iran, which is insisting it will end its voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment unless there is significant progress within the three-month timeframe set in the November 15 Paris Accords. That is no easy matter, given that in response to Iran's demands that the negotiations cover a wide range of security and economic issues, the initial European position evidently was to raise the full set of concerns which led to suspension of EU-Iran talks about a Trade Cooperation Agreement, namely, terrorism (such as al-Qaeda), Middle East peace, human rights, and all of Iran's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

159. Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Washington to support the European efforts by engaging with Iran. There is a growing chorus claiming that Iran will keep its nuclear program suspended only if offered significant incentives by the United States, such as security guarantees, an end to hostility, or at least normal relations.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries

160. Clarifying and Strengthening the Iran-European Nuclear Accord

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet to consider Iran's nuclear program, in light of the November 14 Paris Accords between Iran and Britain, France, and Germany (the E3). If the Paris Accords are going to work as a stepping-stone toward ending Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions -- rather than as a stalling tactic while Iran makes progress on that program -- several steps will be necessary to clarify and build on the Paris Accords.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Paris, France, Germany, and Arab Countries

161. The IAEA and Iran: The Perils of Inaction

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Deep divisions among the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently meeting in Vienna, continue to hamper U.S. efforts on two key fronts: pressing Iran to suspend work on its nuclear program, and referring allegations of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the UN Security Council. With the current meeting unlikely to produce tangible steps to halt Iran's nuclear program, it is important to understand the potential consequences of Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.
Topic:: Security, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

162. Incident in the Shatt al-Arab Waterway: Iran's Border Sensitivities

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After several days of diplomatic tension between London and Tehran, eight British military personnel who had been captured by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were released and flown out of Iran on June 24. The men, who served with the coalition forces in Iraq, had been in three boats intercepted in the Shatt al-Arab waterway, the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers that forms the border with Iran. (Tehran, which dislikes the Arab name, calls the waterway the Arvand River.) The incident comes after several weeks of minor clashes in the Persian Gulf and at a time when Iran is facing strong international pressure due to concerns about its suspected nuclear weapons program.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arab Countries

163. Special Policy Forum Report: The 25th Anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution -- Looking Back and Ahead

Author:: Shaul Bakhash and Haleh Esfandiari
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 17, 2004, Shaul Bakhash and Haleh Esfandiari addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Bakhash, who has worked for many years as a journalist in Iran, is the Clarence Robinson Professor of History at George Mason University and author of Reign of the Ayatollahs: Iran and the Islamic Revolution (Millefleurs, 1991). Haleh Esfandiari, who recently returned from a trip to Iran, is consulting director of the Middle East Project at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Previously she served as deputy secretary-general of the Women's Organization of Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

164. Iran Between Elections and the IAEA

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To no one's surprise, the Iranian parliamentary elections resulted in a conservative sweep; the hardliners had rigged the rules so as to prevent a serious contest. As the hardliners consolidate their control, they may be interested in improving relations with the United States, though a major initiative would likely appear only after they retake the presidency at the end of Muhammad Khatami's term in May 2005. The most obvious bait for such engagement is Iran's nuclear program. On February 22, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Mohamed ElBaradei met with Iranian Supreme National Security Council head Hassan Rohani to discuss the IAEA report due out this week, which shows once again that Iran has made clandestine progress toward nuclear enrichment, further raising the stakes. Given the risks, would a U.S.-Iranian deal be appropriate?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

165. Iran's Threat to Coalition Forces in Iraq

Author:: Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: According to the State Department's Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002 (issued in April 2003), Tehran provides the Lebanon-based Hizballah with "funding, safe haven, training, and weapons." Such support (estimated at $80 million per year) has given Iran a terrorist proxy of global reach. For example, Hizballah suicide bombings against the U.S. Marine barracks and the U.S. embassy annex in Beirut (in October 1983 and September 1984, respectively) killed some 300 U.S. diplomats and soldiers. In addition, the twenty-two individuals on the FBI's list of Most Wanted Terrorists include three Hizballah operatives accused of the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847, during which a U.S. Navy diver was murdered. The hijacking featured the infamous image of an American pilot peering out of the cockpit with a gun to his head. Moreover, according to a November 1, 1996, report by the Washington Post, Saudi intelligence concluded that a local group calling itself Hizballah was responsible for the June 1996 truck bombing of the Khobar Towers U.S. military housing complex on the kingdom's Persian Gulf coast. The Saudis also asserted that this local group was a wing of Lebanese Hizballah. More recently, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah made the following remarks in a speech given one week before coalition forces launched Operation Iraqi Freedom (as broadcast on al-Manar, the organization's Beirut-based satellite television station): "In the past, when the Marines were in Beirut, we screamed, 'Death to America!' Today, when the region is being filled with hundreds of thousands of American soldiers, 'Death to America!' was, is, and will stay our slogan."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Tehran, and Arab Countries

166. The Hizballah Threat in Africa

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 25, 2003, Union Transport Africaines (UTA) Flight 141 bound for Beirut crashed on take-off from Cotonou, Benin, in West Africa. According to accounts in the Arab press, a "foreign relations official of the African branch of the Lebanese Hizballah party and two of his aides" were among those killed. The Hizballah officials were reportedly carrying $2 million in contributions, raised from wealthy Lebanese nationals living in Africa, to the organization's headquarters in Beirut. In fact, Hizballah maintains a worldwide network engaged in financial, logistical, and operational terrorist activities, often in close cooperation with Iranian intelligence services. Hizballah operatives in Africa raise and launder significant sums of money, recruit local operatives, collect preoperational intelligence, and support the organization's terrorist activities against Israeli, U.S., and other Western interests.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

167. Hizballah, Iran, and the Prospects for a New Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and Neri Zilber
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The death of Yasser Arafat and the approach of Palestinian elections on January 9 have rekindled hopes for the peace process. However, if history is a guide, Hizballah and Iran—which worked tirelessly to undermine the Oslo Process—will try to sabotage such efforts. (Indeed, Israeli intelligence reports cited in the Israeli press indicate that they are preparing to do so.) Having emerged from the al-Aqsa Intifada as the principal outside actors in Palestinian politics and emboldened by what they see as recent successes, Hizballah and Iran could pose major obstacles to efforts to defuse the conflict and promote Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Czech Republic

168. Gaining Support for Action on Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

169. Reading the Popular Mood in Iran

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual elected leadership of President Muhammad Khatami?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

170. Iran: Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by 196 prominent clerics and intellectuals. Are these signs that the Islamic Republic is in trouble?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

171. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and Iran -- Crosswinds?

Author:: William A. Samii and Nasser Hadian
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 21, 2003, A. William Samii and Nasser Hadian addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Samii is an analyst at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, where he prepares the Iran Report. Dr. Hadian is a professor of political science at Tehran University and a visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute of Columbia University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Colombia, and Arabia

172. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part III: How Might Iran Retaliate?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series. Part I, by Michael Eisenstadt, examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part II, by Michael Knights, examined the operational challenges of preemptive action.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

173. Polling in Iran: Surprising Questions

Author:: Nazgol Ashouri
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very interesting polls are in fact conducted in Iran.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

174. Special Policy Forum Report: A View from Tehran: War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Midle East

Author:: Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions has led to a conservative backlash. A coalition of hardliners has been successfully implementing a strategy for retaining power, namely, fostering popular apathy by controlling public discourse, imprisoning reformers, and negating the deliberations of elected institutions. This strategy reached its apex during local and council elections in February in which only 30 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arabia

175. Iran's Municipal Elections: A Turning Point for the Reform Movement?

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 28, 2003, elections were held across Iran for positions on city and village councils, local political bodies that were revived in 1999. Whereas the 1999 council elections resulted in impressive gains by reformers, last Friday's electoral results demonstrated the resurgence of the right wing. Capitalizing on low voter turnout and mass alienation from the political process, the conservatives swept elections in nearly all major Iranian cities. Indeed, the elections marked the lowest turnout in twenty-four years and the first time that the reform movement has been defeated at the polls since its emergence in the mid-1990s. Beyond the issue of largely symbolic local councils, the elections reflect the changing dynamics of Iran's political landscape.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

176. Special Policy Forum Report: The Shi'is and the Future of Iraq

Author:: Yitzhak Nakash
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The prospect of American military action in Iraq has raised concerns that dismantling the Ba'ath regime will weaken the state and spur the defection of its Shi'i majority under the influence of Iran. Yet, much of the pessimism surrounding this assessment obscures the historical role that the Shi'i community has played in supporting the Iraqi state, not to mention the vital interest it has in preserving the country's territorial integrity. If war in Iraq leads to a more representative government that is willing to address Shi'i political aspirations, the likely result would be stability and the establishment of a more moderate religious leadership quite different from that seen in Iran.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

177. The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants: The Iranian Connection

Author:: Ely Karmon
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

178. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran -- Democratic Evolution or Revolution?

Author:: Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the tyrannical nature of the Iranian regime. This unfounded pessimism is predicated on a profound misreading of the Islamic Republic as a traditional religious government rather than a revolutionary regime.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

179. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

180. Iran's Nuclear Activities: What Might the IAEA Learn?

Author:: Chen Zak
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Satellite photos published last week showed two sites in Iran that might house a civilian energy program and/or a nuclear weapons program. To determine exactly what purpose these sites serve would require an on-site inspection. Yet, inspections performed by international regulatory agencies are bound by certain limitations. What are the chances that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the organization responsible for verifying compliance to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), will detect clandestine nuclear activities in these two sites or elsewhere in Iran?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

181. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran – Reformist Blues, Economic Woes

Author:: Afshin Molavi
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran has been experiencing nationwide student demonstrations this week, touched off by a hardline court's recent decision to sentence Tehran professor Hashem Aghajari to death for advocating reform of the Shi'i clergy. Although Aghajari's message was well within the mainstream of traditional Shi'a thought, it presented a challenge to the hardline clerics, who insist on a far-reaching revision of Shi'a that includes unquestioning obedience to ruling clergy. The death sentence was meant to send a message to other midranking academics within the reformist movement. Yet, the hardliners' grave miscalculation about the reaction of the Iranian street has led to protests in Tehran, Tabriz, and other Iranian cities.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and World Bank
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

182. Iran's Reaction to the New Bush Policy Shows America-Bashing out of Style

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's democratic movement has had a busy few weeks. Today, the usually weak-kneed President Muhammad Khatami spoke out about the importance of democracy and warned hardliners against their crackdown on reformers: "No problem will be solved through the superficial elimination of a group. . . . [S]uch tendencies would go into hiding and grow up at great cost." Sunday, 151 of the 290 Majlis members signed a statement criticizing the judiciary for its hardline crackdown, arguing that it would bring only disappointment and discontentment to the populace. Last week, the often timid main student organization (the Office for Strengthening Unity) issued its first strong defense of respected antiregime Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, demanding he be released from house arrest. Finally, two weeks ago, protests forced the Expediency Council to withdraw a proposed directive that would have placed it above the president and Majlis, able to overrule both.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: America, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

183. Special Policy Forum Report: Where is Iran – and U.S. Iran Policy – Headed?

Author:: Zalmay Khalilzad
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "On January 29, the President in his State of the Union address laid the foundation for the policy we are pursuing today for Iran. It's a dual track policy based on moral clarity: tell the world specifically what is destructive and unacceptable about Iran's behavior – sponsorship of terror, pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and repression of the clearly expressed desires of the Iranian people for freedom and democracy – while laying out a positive vision of partnership and support for the Iranian people. This dual track approach reflects two fundamental principles and beliefs of the President more broadly: first, that September 11 taught us that we need to deal with threats before they manifest [themselves], and, second, that there is an essential truth that must be emphasized: when given the choice, people will choose freedom. . . ."
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

184. Iran's Burgeoning Discontent

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 22, 2002, Iranians demonstrated in the heart of Tehran, chanting antigovernment slogans. Riot police clashed with protestors on Vali Asr Avenue, the city's main thoroughfare. The protest came five days after security services sealed off the streets leading to Arak University, where student protestors had barricaded themselves. On May 1, numerous student and trade groups also protested around the country. The increasing frequency of public demonstrations is evidence of the growing discontent among Iranians over both a souring economy and President Muhammad Khatami's failure to fulfill his campaign promises.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arabia

185. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran's Place in the Axis: Signs of Movement?

Author:: Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation — two areas in which Iran has been particularly active — as top-priority issues, while the previous administration predicated its policy on certain developments within Iran. The parameters for evaluating Iranian foreign policy and U.S.-Iran relations have changed, particularly on the issue of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

186. Iran: Scared Straight?

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 29, President George W. Bush caused considerable consternation among foreign policy analysts by referring to an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. The analysts worried that the president's castigation of Iran would embolden hardliners who routinely exploit external threats as a means of deflecting attention from their sagging political fortunes. The concern was that, in addition to hurting Iran's reform movement, the president's speech would lead to a more aggressive Iranian foreign policy, ending the modest gains toward U.S.-Iranian rapprochement that were achieved in the last years of the Clinton administration.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

187. Iran as Part of the Axis of Evil: U.S. Policy Concerns (Part II)

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 31, following President George Bush's State of the Union condemnation of the "axis of evil," National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice explained, "Iran's direct support of regional and global terrorism, and its aggressive efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, belie any good intentions it displayed in the days after the world's worst terrorist attacks in history." How accurate is this characterization?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

188. Iran as Part of the Axis of Evil: Reforms Stagnate (Part I)

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his January 29 State of the Union address, President George Bush criticized Iran as one of three states (the other two being Iraq and North Korea) forming an 'axis of evil' and castigated its "unelected leaders" for denying the will of the majority. Indeed, the perennial conflict between Tehran's political factions seems to have escalated, deepening the stalemate that has essentially paralyzed its governing system. The durability of the Islamic Republic has always stemmed from its flexibility and capacity to absorb change. Since the election of Muhammad Khatami in 1997, however, the popular demand for change is outstripping the system's accommodative capabilities. The youths' demands for employment and cultural freedom, the middle class's quest for representation, and the women's clamor for social emancipation are creating tensions and pressures that threaten the foundations of the Islamic Republic.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

189. Special Policy Forum Report: Nuclear Arms Inspections in Iraq

Author:: Hans Blix
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since September 11, there has been increased concern about terrorists using weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It is thus natural to return to the issue of Iraq, a country that has used chemical agents against Iran and its own citizens. Indeed, Iraq violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty before 1990 and, prior to the Gulf War, was estimated to be a year away from developing workable nuclear weapons.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

190. Karine-A: The Strategic Implications of Iranian-Palestinian Collusion

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Revelations of Iranian-Palestinian collusion to smuggle fifty tons of weapons into the hands of Yasir Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) through the offices of Hizballah have profound strategic implications for the Middle East. For the Bush administration, responding appropriately to the Karine-A episode may have unpleasant repercussions for relations with key Arab states. However, failing to deal forthrightly with the shift in the region's tectonic plates represented by the smuggling affair is a self-defeating exercise in delusion.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

191. Special Policy Forum Report: The Karine-A Affair: A Strategic Watershed in the Middle East?

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Palestinian defense budget spending — relative to national income — is higher than that of any Arab country or Iran. This calculation is based on official data that exclude an important part of a state's defense budget — namely, procurement of weapons. The Oslo agreements prohibit the Palestinian Authority (PA) from procuring arms, yet they have been smuggled into the territories for years. It is not known how much the Palestinians actually invest in illegal weapons procurement, and there is no way to know how many wea
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Palestine

192. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Political Implications

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli naval commandos seized the Gaza-bound freighter Karine-A in the Red Sea last Thursday, exposing a cargo hold containing fifty tons of munitions. The seizure took place in international waters some 300 miles off of Israel's southern coast, between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The ship's captain, Omar Akkawi, later participated in an interview with Reuters and several television networks invited by Israeli authorities to the prison where Akkawi was being held; in the interview, he named Adel Awadallah of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as head of the operation. Akkawi also identified himself as both a long-time member of Yasir Arafat's Fatah and a naval advisor to the PA's Ministry of Transport; the PA subsequently confirmed the latter fact. In front of the reporters, Akkawi disclosed his instructions to first collect arms at a specified point off of Iran's coast and then sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. He also confirmed that one of the men who helped load the arms onto his ship was a member of the Iranian-backed Hizballah, and that one of his own crew members had been trained by the group.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

193. Iran: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: British foreign secretary Jack Straw arrives in Tehran today to "build alliances with every country that we can." In fact, Iran is the acid test of U.S. resolve to fulfill the goal set by President George Bush in his speech to Congress, namely, "From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." While Iran could be a useful ally vis-a-vis Afghanistan, there is no sign that Iran has any intention of stopping its support for terrorism. The objective of U.S. policy should be finding a way to take advantage of Iran's anti-Taliban sentiment while still pressing ahead with efforts to terminate Iran's own support for international terrorism.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

194. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

195. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

196. Khatami's New Term and Ilsa's New Life

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: August 5 is an auspicious day for Iran, as it marks the inauguration of Mohammed Khatami's second four-year term as president of that country. It is also the day that the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) would have expired, had its renewal not received an overwhelming vote last week by 96-2 in the Senate and 409-6 in the House. Khatami's cabinet choices, which he is expected to announce at his inaugural, will indicate much about where Iran is heading. Similarly, how the Bush administration administers a renewed ILSA will indicate much about the direction of U.S.-Iran policy.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries

197. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

198. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

199. The United States, Iraq, and Iran: Proliferating Risks, Dwindling Opportunities

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: American policymakers face a number of decision points concerning U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran in the coming weeks. The UN Security Council has to act by June 4 to renew the oil-for-food program, providing the United States with an opportunity to secure approval for the "re-energized" sanctions regime that Secretary of State Colin Powell floated in March. Iran's policy direction will become clearer after its June 8 presidential elections, and that could influence the U.S. decision whether to renew the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act that expires August 5. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering whether to indict senior Iranians for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Iran, and Arab Countries

200. Special Policy Forum Report: Partners in Need: Russia and Iran's Strategic Relationship

Author:: Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In April, Brenda Shaffer, research director of Harvard University's Caspian Studies Program and visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000, addressed The Washington Institute to mark the publication of her Policy Paper, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. Russia and Iran see themselves as strategic partners, and therefore their relations are based on an overall security conception. It would be a misperception to assume that because Washington and Moscow share concerns about Islamist radicalism that Russia would necessarily decide to cooperate with the United States on Iran. It would also be a misperception to think that Russia wants to sell arms to Iran solely in order to make money and that the United States can induce Russia not to make these sales by offering a better economic deal.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS