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Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Small Arms Survey Publication Year within 10 Years

1. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses this predatory political economy in South Sudan, and charts a shift from the use of wages to reward loyal appointees to a more obscure system based on the dispensations of favours.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Conflict, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

2. At Whose Risk? Understanding States Parties’ Implementation of Arms Trade Treaty Gender-based Violence Provisions

Author:
Anne-Séverine Fabre, Gian Giezendanner, Paul Holtom, and Emilia Dungel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is the first legally binding agreement linking international conventional arms transfers to gender-based violence (GBV), but there has been limited practical application of these specific provisions to date. At Whose Risk? Understanding States Parties’ Implementation of Arms Trade Treaty Gender-based Violence Provisions sets out to gain insight into how ATT states parties apply Article 7(4)—the main provision related to GBV—by focusing on the work of the export licensing officers carrying out this task. Specifically, the Briefing Paper contextualizes GBV in the ATT context; presents implementation guidance; and reviews recommended open-source resources for carrying out risk assessments. Finally, after analyzing reported implementation practices of ten ATT states parties, the study offers policy observations related to continued work to tackle GBV within the ATT context. Among other findings, the paper reveals that most ATT states parties interpret Article 7(4) in terms of the broader offences related to international humanitarian law and international human rights law listed under Article 7(1). Further, the study finds that the existing recommended evidence base on GBV is often scattered and unstandardized; rarely providing the type of information required by export licensing officers to conduct GBV-focused risk assessments. Finally, at the time of writing, no ATT state party had publicly indicated that it had denied an export authorization specifically due to risk of the conventional arms being used to commit or facilitate serious acts of GBV.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Regulation, Arms Trade, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Extracting Evidence: Opportunities and Obstacles in Assessing the Gendered Impacts of Diverted Ammunition

Author:
Emile LeBrun, André Desmarais, Kheira Djouhri, and Nicolas Florquin
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Ammunition diverted from legal to illicit markets is a central concern in small arms control, but its impact is understudied. A new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey and the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs explores how authorities can go about better monitoring the role it plays in violent crime. Extracting Evidence: Opportunities and Obstacles in Assessing the Gendered Impacts of Diverted Ammunition unpacks the challenges involved in trying to assess the true costs of ammunition diverted from official stockpiles. The study describes contextual background, notes the limitations of ammunition profiling research to date, and presents findings from a pilot case study on ammunition profiling in Kosovo* as well as insights from ammunition marking policy in Brazil. It finds that authorities struggle to identify what materiel among seized ammunition has been diverted from official stockpiles, which in turn prevents the ability to truly assess the impact it has on men, women, boys, and girls. The study identifies measures for overcoming such monitoring challenges, including special marking practices for state-destined ammunition, headstamp data collection guidelines, and information sharing protocols between relevant agencies for ammunition recovered from crime scenes.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Trafficking, Gender, and Ammunition
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

4. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30

Author:
Gergely Hideg and Anna Alvazzi del Frate
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The year 2018 was characterized by a decrease in lethal violence in several of the world’s hotspots, primarily due to a significant de-escalation of the armed conflicts in Iraq, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria. The homicide rate also decreased marginally due to population growth outpacing the nominal increase in killings between 2017 and 2018. These two trends jointly resulted in a modest positive change in the rate of violent deaths globally in 2018 which, at 7.8 violent deaths per 100,000 population, is at its lowest since 2012. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30, a Briefing Paper by the Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project provides an updated trend analysis of global violent deaths and develops global-level scenarios for the years leading to 2030. Based on 2018 figures from the Small Arms Survey’s Global Violent Deaths (GVD) database, the paper also includes a specific analysis of developments in Northern Africa and the five nations of the G5 Sahel region. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, Northern Africa’s violent death rate would remain relatively stable by 2030. By contrast, under the same scenario, the fatality rate in the G5 Sahel region would increase significantly.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Conflict, Violence, and Death
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Syria, Myanmar, and South Sudan

5. 2021 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer

Author:
Elodie Hainard and Olena Shumska
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The 2021 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer—which scores the transparency of top and major exporters’ reporting on authorized arms trade activities carried out in 2018—finds Switzerland to be the most transparent small arms exporter. Countries scored an average of 12.61 points out of a maximum of 25, which is a slight increase of last year’s score (12.36). The most transparent countries are, in descending order: Switzerland (21.75 points), the Netherlands (21.00), Germany (20.25), Serbia (19.75), and the United Kingdom (19.50). Meanwhile, North Korea (0.00 points), Iran (0.00), Saudi Arabia (0.50), and Israel (3.00) remain the least transparent countries in terms of arms trade activities.
Topic:
Weapons, Transparency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Gender Counts: Assessing Global Armed Violence Datasets for Gender Relevance

Author:
Anna Alvazzi del Frate, Gergely Hideg, and Emile LeBrun
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Sound and timely gender-relevant data is key for adequately and comprehensively addressing armed violence. Global databases have the potential to highlight relevant gendered dynamics, but currently lack crucial information related to the sex and gender of victims as well as the context of the violent events monitored. Gender Counts: Assessing Global Armed Violence Datasets, a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey, highlights these knowledge gaps and indicates ways towards filling them. Reviewing global, regional, and national datasets on lethal violence—including on homicides, and conflict-related fatalities—the study finds that gender relevance of the available data across the board is still low. However, recent developments in the 'Data Revolution' connected to efforts to implement the 2030 Agenda have demonstrated that it is possible to move in the direction of better data on the gendered dimensions of violence. Increasing political support and civil society commitments have started producing more gender-relevant data for a range of related lethal violence, small arms, and gender indicators. The study therefore sees room for optimism, and data for gender analyses will likely be more inclusive and gender-relevant in the near future.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Gender Issues, Violence, and Survey
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Author:
John Young
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian–Sudanese Relations finds that the cold war both shaped and was itself shaped by the conflicts within and between the two countries. Following the end of the cold war, relations considerably improved under President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. However, the recent emergence of new governments in both countries does not guarantee a cordial relationship in the future as on-going political reforms, internal threats, and external influences from powerful states weigh heavily on both countries.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

8. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Hana Salama
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
UN peace operations are uniquely positioned—and mandated—to collect and monitor data on conflict-related casualties. Through the collection and analysis of this type of data, UN missions can both improve the effectiveness of peace operations and assist the international effort among UN Member States to achieve progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16—particularly Indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment in Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) projects examines the current capacity of UN peace operations as data providers. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations reviews current practices of data collection in UN operational settings and provides case studies through three UN peace operations in the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan. The paper, authored by casualty recording expert Hana Salama, concludes that UN missions already do much of the work required but lack the effectual mandate, resources, and coordination to ensure that the information is useful for the purpose of the SDGs.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, Peace, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan

9. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria

Author:
Flora McCrone
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In 2018, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS), the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As part of the transitional security arrangements within the R-ARCSS framework, all warring parties agreed to assemble combatants in designated cantonment sites to facilitate their training, and later, integration into a new ‘unity’ army or other national security services. A Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the process of cantonment and the challenges in operationalizing the Agreement. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria describes the transitional security arrangements of the R-ARCSS and the scope of force sizes to be cantoned. It follows with a case study of Western Equatoria’s Arrow Boys, demonstrating how their involvement exposes some of the fault-lines within the broader integration process. The Briefing Paper finds that the implementation of the R-ARCSS is leading to deteriorating local security, community cohesion, and stability.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

10. Covert Carriers: Evolving Methods and Techniques of North Korean Sanctions Evasion

Author:
Hugh Griffiths and Matt Schroeder
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
For more than a decade the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), in defiance of UN sanctions, has found ways to systematically smuggle arms and other illicit goods in and out of the country. This Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey provides a detailed overview of how the DPRK evades sanctions by employing its diplomatic resources and exploiting key loopholes relating to transport, logistics, and proliferation finance. Covert Carriers: Evolving Methods and Techniques of North Korean Sanctions Evasion emphasizes the importance for UN member states, logistics companies, and global banks to adequately screen and monitor North Korean activities and transactions. The study also highlights how new information-sharing mechanisms would strengthen the ability of states, private industry, and the UN Panel of Experts to better detect ongoing North Korean violations and dismantle existing sanctions evasion networks.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Sanctions, and Trafficking
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea