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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Peterson Institute for International Economics

41. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom

42. US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence and Lawrence Edwards
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Manufacturing is a key sector of the US economy. Although value added in manufacturing represented just 11.9 percent of GDP in 2012, manufacturing activity is strongly associated with economic growth, because manufacturing serves as the fulcrum of supply chains that combine and process raw materials and services to produce goods.1 In addition, the sector is among the most dynamic—accounting for about 70 percent of US spending on business research and development—and it regularly outstrips the rest of the economy in productivity growth. Over the long run, the contributions of US manufacturing to total output growth have been steady. Measured in 2005 dollars, for example, the share of manufacturing in US output was about the same in 2005 as in 1947.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

43. Financial Services in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Author:
Simon Johnson and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In July 2013, the United States and the European Union launched negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The talks aim to craft a comprehensive accord matching or exceeding the reforms achieved in their previous trade pacts. Since both sides have included financial services in prior free trade agreements (FTAs), they implicitly recognized that the TTIP accord would also cover this sector. But what will be included in the financial services chapter is still subject to debate.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

44. Governing the Federal Reserve System after the Dodd-Frank Act

Author:
Simon Johnson and Peter Conti-Brown
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act increased the powers of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (hereafter the Board) along almost all dimensions pertaining to the supervision and operation of systemically important financial institutions. With Ben S. Bernanke's term as Fed chair ending in January 2014, much of the public's attention has focused appropriately on the identity, views, and experience of candidates for the successor, whose influence on bank regulation will be considerable. President Barack Obama's selection of current Board vice chair Janet L. Yellen as chair—a highly qualified choice—comes at the end of a long public debate on this nomination.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform

45. Progress on Sovereign Wealth Fund Transparency and Accountability: An Updated SWF Scoreboard

Author:
Edwin M. Truman and Allie E. Bagnall
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The term sovereign wealth fund (SWF) had not been coined a decade ago. By 2007, economists and the financial world were alternatively excited about or alarmed by the growing influence of these institutions, though in fact many of them had been around for decades. Politicians in countries in which the funds invested generally welcomed the additional financial resources from abroad while expressing concern about the motivations of investors and what they feared could be threats to political, economic, and financial security. The general public in the countries in which the funds were based realized at the same time that political leaders were investing large amounts of national wealth at home and abroad with limited disclosure, and they wanted to know more.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sovereign Wealth Funds

46. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:
Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

47. Lehman Died, Bagehot Lives: Why Did the Fed and Treasury Let a Major Wall Street Bank Fail?

Author:
William R. Cline and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Five years after the Federal Reserve and the Treasury allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to fail, their actions (or inaction) remain a focus of debate. Some argue that it was an inconsistent policy to have let Lehman fail while making emergency loans to save other large financial institutions in the same time frame. In this Policy Brief we present evidence that the Fed and Treasury had a sound reason to have bailed out other institutions while letting Lehman fail. Simply put, Lehman was insolvent—probably deeply so—whereas the other institutions arguably were solvent. In addition, the other institutions had abundant collateral to pledge, whereas what little collateral Lehman had to pledge was of questionable quality and scattered across many affiliated entities. Thus, federal officials, at least in hindsight, appear to have followed the dictum of Walter Bagehot (cited above), which has guided central banks for almost 150 years.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

48. Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 2008 we introduced a semiannual series providing estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, or FEERs (Cline and Williamson 2008a). The economic concept of FEERs was first set forth by Williamson (1983). An operational method for arriving at multilaterally consistent estimates of FEERs was developed by Cline (2008) and has been applied over the past five years in this series of estimates. This issue marks the valedictory round of the series for Williamson, who is retiring.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

49. Hyperinflations Are Rare, but a Breakup of the Euro Area Could Prompt One

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Hyperinflation is one of the most misused words in the English language. Two years ago, I heard a prominent American investor say that we were about to get hyperinflation, “not 15 percent a year as under Jimmy Carter but perhaps 5 percent a year.” Hyperinflation is usually 1,000 percent or more a year. The standard definition by Philip Cagan (1956) is that hyperinflation starts when inflation reaches 50 percent a month, and then the economy is in hyperinflation for one year until monthly inflation falls and stays below 50 percent.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

50. How Can Trade Policy Help America Compete?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
America deserves credit for not having succumbed to the global financial crisis by repeating the protectionist mistakes of the 1930s. Nonetheless, since 2007, although lip service has been paid to boosting US exports, its trade policy accomplishments have been modest. This is unfortunate because active trade policies can promote American living standards and facilitate America's return to full employment and sustained growth. These policies can also help to create a global trade order that advances American interests. This policy brief argues that the United States needs new initiatives that discipline foreign practices, increase access to foreign markets, revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO), improve the administrative and regulatory environment for trade, and assist workers and communities adversely affected by change.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

51. Why a Breakup of the Euro Area Must Be Avoided: Lessons from Previous Breakups

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
One of the big questions of our time is whether the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will survive. Too often, analysts discuss a possible departure of one or several countries from the euro area as little more than a devaluation, but I argue that any country's exit from the euro area would be a far greater event with potentially odious consequences. Exit from the EMU cannot be selective: It is either none or all.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

52. Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon Gagnon
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Widespread currency manipulation, mainly in developing and newly industrialized economies, is the most important development of the past decade in international financial markets. In an attempt to hold down the values of their currencies, governments are distorting capital flows by around $1.5 trillion per year. The result is a net drain on aggregate demand in the United States and the euro area by an amount roughly equal to the large output gaps in the United States and the euro area. In other words, millions more Americans and Europeans would be employed if other countries did not manipulate their currencies and instead achieved sustainable growth through higher domestic demand.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

53. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis: An Update

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Getting the diagnosis right is a prerequisite for understanding the euro area predicament and evaluating key decisions taken since early 2010. As we laid out in Bergsten and Kirkegaard (2012), while the euro area faces multiple overlapping and mutually reinforcing elements of fiscal (Greece), banking (Ireland/Spain), and competitiveness (Southern periphery) crises, it is first and foremost facing a crisis of institutional design. The common currency as designed in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 is a half-built house without the critical components of banking and fiscal union necessary to sustain it through the type of crushing economic and financial down- turn witnessed since October 2008.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

54. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
United States

55. Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Long Journey Towards Banking Union

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On June 29, 2012, the heads of state and government of the 17 euro area countries issued a landmark statement that started with the sentences “We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB [European Central Bank] for banks in the euro area the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly” (Euro Area Summit Statement 2012). This statement was received by the investor community and the European public as marking the initial step towards a European banking union, i.e., a shift of the key instruments of banking policy from the national to the European level to enable the formation and maintenance of an integrated European banking system.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

56. Southern Europe Ignores Lessons from Latvia at Its Peril

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the current financial crisis plaguing Europe, Latvia stands out for resolving its financial problems quickly and resolutely. After contracting 24 percent in 2008 and 2009, it grew at the rate of 5.5 percent in 2011. The speed and determination. with which the government carried out austerity measures in 2009 and restored confidence after suffering the worst output decline is a crucial lesson for the ailing South European countries—Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Many policy observers and economists have dismissed Latvia's crisis resolution as irrelevant to the situation in Southern Europe. The Latvian orange, they say, cannot be compared with the South European apples. I argue otherwise.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Latvia

57. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications

Author:
Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), currently at an advanced stage of negotiation, began as a small agreement but now has big implications. The TPP would strengthen ties between Asia and the Americas, create a new template for the conduct of international trade and investment, and potentially lead to a comprehensive free trade area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific. It could generate large benefits—greater than those expected from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) global Doha Development Agenda. This Policy Brief reports on our ongoing quantitative assessment (with FanZhai) of the TPP and other Asia-Pacific integration efforts.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
America, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

58. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2012

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This Policy Brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data. For exchange rates, we apply the average rates of April 2012, while for the International Monetary Fund's balance of payments forecasts, we use the April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook (henceforth WEO; see IMF 2012a). This study is the fifth in an annual series, begun in 2008, in which we have used the spring WEO as the basis for drawing out implications for exchange rate changes needed if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. In addition, in semiannual updates (most recently in November 2011), we have tracked interim changes in exchange rates but not reestimated the underlying FEERs for the year in question.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis

59. Right Idea, Wrong Direction: Obama's Corporate Tax Reform Proposals

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The need for US corporate tax reform is blindingly obvious. Conservatives contend that the top corporate tax rate— whether measured in statutory or effective terms—is the second highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Liberals argue that the US corporate tax system is riddled with complex “loopholes,” enabling many firms—whether incorporated or not—to pay less than their fair share.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

60. Japan Post: Anti-Reform Law Clouds Japan's Entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Our last policy brief on this long-running saga recounted political machinations, late in 2011, to reverse the Koizumi era reforms of Japan Post, a giant among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). As a brief background: Japan Post is a conglomerate of five companies: the parent, Japan Post Holdings; two subsidiaries concerned with operating post offices and delivering mail, namely Japan Post Network and Japan Post Services; and two giant financial arms, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Law
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel