Search

You searched for: Content Type Policy Brief Remove constraint Content Type: Policy Brief Publishing Institution Peterson Institute for International Economics Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics Topic Economics Remove constraint Topic: Economics
Number of results to display per page

Search Results

  • Author: John Williamson
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America
  • Author: Adam S. Posen
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Ben Goodrich
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank is again at the center of controversy, as Congress debates the terms for its charter renewal. This policy brief critiques provisions of the House and Senate versions of the reauthorization bill and summarizes three justifications for Congress giving adequate support to the Ex-Im Bank. Box 1 provides a capsule description of the Ex-Im Bank's operations.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Marcus Miller
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: It was at the National Economists' Club in November 2001 that Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, threw down the gauntlet. “There is,” she said, “a gaping hole [in the international financial architecture] – we lack incentives to help countries with unsustainable debts resolve them promptly and in an orderly way. At present the only available mechanism requires the international community to bail out the private creditors. It is high time this hole was filled.”
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance