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You searched for: Content Type Policy Brief Remove constraint Content Type: Policy Brief Publishing Institution Peterson Institute for International Economics Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics Topic Economics Remove constraint Topic: Economics
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  • Author: C. Fred Bergsten, Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Nicolas Véron
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: On June 29, 2012, the heads of state and government of the 17 euro area countries issued a landmark statement that started with the sentences “We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB [European Central Bank] for banks in the euro area the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly” (Euro Area Summit Statement 2012). This statement was received by the investor community and the European public as marking the initial step towards a European banking union, i.e., a shift of the key instruments of banking policy from the national to the European level to enable the formation and maintenance of an integrated European banking system.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Anders Åslund
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In the current financial crisis plaguing Europe, Latvia stands out for resolving its financial problems quickly and resolutely. After contracting 24 percent in 2008 and 2009, it grew at the rate of 5.5 percent in 2011. The speed and determination. with which the government carried out austerity measures in 2009 and restored confidence after suffering the worst output decline is a crucial lesson for the ailing South European countries—Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Many policy observers and economists have dismissed Latvia's crisis resolution as irrelevant to the situation in Southern Europe. The Latvian orange, they say, cannot be compared with the South European apples. I argue otherwise.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greece, Latvia
  • Author: Peter A. Petri
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), currently at an advanced stage of negotiation, began as a small agreement but now has big implications. The TPP would strengthen ties between Asia and the Americas, create a new template for the conduct of international trade and investment, and potentially lead to a comprehensive free trade area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific. It could generate large benefits—greater than those expected from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) global Doha Development Agenda. This Policy Brief reports on our ongoing quantitative assessment (with FanZhai) of the TPP and other Asia-Pacific integration efforts.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: William R. Cline
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Halfway through this presidential election year, there is great uncertainty about how, when, and even whether the United States will restore fiscal sustainability. As shown by the near-default because of the impasse over the debt ceiling in July 2011, the two parties have been in sharp opposition on this issue. The Republicans have insisted that adjustment be accomplished by spending cuts rather than tax increases. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican congressmen and 41 Republican senators have signed the Grover Norquist pledge to oppose any attempt to raise marginal tax rates or reduce deductions without implementing offsetting tax reductions. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers have tended to emphasize the maintenance of social and entitlement programs and expressed a willingness to restore higher tax rates if necessary.
  • Topic: Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance, Law
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William R. Cline, John Williamson
  • Publication Date: 05-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This Policy Brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data. For exchange rates, we apply the average rates of April 2012, while for the International Monetary Fund's balance of payments forecasts, we use the April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook (henceforth WEO; see IMF 2012a). This study is the fifth in an annual series, begun in 2008, in which we have used the spring WEO as the basis for drawing out implications for exchange rate changes needed if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. In addition, in semiannual updates (most recently in November 2011), we have tracked interim changes in exchange rates but not reestimated the underlying FEERs for the year in question.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Martin Vieiro
  • Publication Date: 05-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The need for US corporate tax reform is blindingly obvious. Conservatives contend that the top corporate tax rate— whether measured in statutory or effective terms—is the second highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Liberals argue that the US corporate tax system is riddled with complex “loopholes,” enabling many firms—whether incorporated or not—to pay less than their fair share.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Julia Muir
  • Publication Date: 05-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Our last policy brief on this long-running saga recounted political machinations, late in 2011, to reverse the Koizumi era reforms of Japan Post, a giant among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). As a brief background: Japan Post is a conglomerate of five companies: the parent, Japan Post Holdings; two subsidiaries concerned with operating post offices and delivering mail, namely Japan Post Network and Japan Post Services; and two giant financial arms, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Law
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott
  • Publication Date: 05-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Our answer is a resounding “yes.” This answer does not rest simply on the World Trade Organization's proven competence as a judicial body nor its acknowledged expertise in gathering statistics and analyzing trends. Crowning these strengths, we see the dawn of a new era of trade and investment negotiations within the halls of the WTO.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, J. Bradford Jensen
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Services trade continues to be the most dynamic part of world trade, and service sectors have long been the largest destination of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Higher GDP growth goes hand-in-hand with service sector growth. Yet, despite these positive attributes, little progress has been achieved in multilateral talks to liberalize services trade and investment. There is something very wrong about this picture—the disjuncture between stalled service negotiations in Geneva, the excessive focus on other components of the Doha Round to the neglect of services, and the rapid expansion of services trade and investment across borders. The time has come for an International Services Agreement (ISA) in which self-selected World Trade Organization (WTO) members voluntarily agree to new rules and market access commitments. The ISA would be distinct from a multilateral undertaking, like the Doha Round, that must gain the consent of all WTO members. Instead, it would be akin to the Agreement on Government Procurement, in which the market access benefits are confined to the agreement's members, but the agreement itself is open to all WTO members that are willing to accept its disciplines and commitments.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, World Trade Organization
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Sean Lowry
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, America
  • Author: Adam S. Posen, Tomas Hellebrandt, Marilyne Tolle
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Active accommodation of fiscal consolidations by monetary policy is controversial, as can be seen in current euro area discussions. While many observers acknowledge that there is usually a place for monetary accommodation in response to fiscal consolidation, a sequencing argument is often heard today that fiscal commitment must precede any loosening. Some analysts go further to suggest that toughness by central banks taking a hard line on adjustment is critical to inducing sustained fiscal stabilization. This policy brief looks at the recent historical record of central bank behavior vis-à-vis fiscal authorities, at least until the current crisis period, and whether accommodative approaches ahead of consolidations have proven dangerous or helpful. The authors also try to assess the market credibility of fiscal consolidations as a function of the central banks' monetary stance prior to fiscal consolidation. They find clear evidence of positive associations between the degree of monetary ease in advance of fiscal consolidation programs and both those programs' success and their market credibility.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance
  • Author: William R. Cline
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel
  • Author: Anders Åslund
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In the fall of 2008, Central and Eastern Europe became a flashpoint in the global financial crisis. The ten new eastern members of the European Union were in a state of severe overheating in all regards. Inflation surged everywhere and to double digits in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Wages and real estate prices skyrocketed, rendering these countries ever less competitive, which further undermined their current account balance. Output plunged and unemployment soared.
  • Topic: Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Latvia
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Yee Wong
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Facilitating trade is essential for countries that aspire to compete in the global economy. Low transactions costs, speed, and predictability are all ingredients of a good logistics system. The payoff is large. According to a World Bank (2010) evaluation of nearly 155 countries, improving logistics for countries at the same level of per capita income can increase GDP by 1 percent and two-way merchandise trade by 2 percent.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Meera Fickling, Woan Foong Wong
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The United States has experienced persistent trade deficits for decades, and thoughtful observers have concluded that deficits cannot be sustained at levels much exceeding 4 percent of GDP annually. There are only two ways to decrease the trade deficit: reduce imports or increase exports. For global economic health, increased exports are a far better proposition.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William R. Cline, John Williamson
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This policy brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data, which for exchange rates are the average rates of April 2011, and for the IMF's balance of payments forecasts, those published in the April 2011 issue of World Economic Outlook (WEO; see IMF 2011a). It is the central study in what has now become a regular annual cycle, in which we draw out what we believe to be the implications of the IMF's forecasts for the pattern that exchange rates need to take if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. This past year we also published an interim policy brief (Cline and Williamson 2010b) in which we updated our calculations to the average exchange rates of October 2010, as well as commented on Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's description of international monetary events as constituting "currency wars." As in the previous year, however, the November 2010 policy brief updated our estimates only for intervening changes in market exchange rates. We did not make use of the IMF's revised autumn WEO forecasts to update our estimates of FEERs; on the contrary, we assumed the FEERs estimated in May 2010 were correct. In contrast, this policy brief presents totally new estimates of FEERs.
  • Topic: Economics, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Edwin M. Truman
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Reform of the international monetary system was placed on the agenda of the Group of 20 (G-20) a year ago at the initiative of the incoming French leadership of the G-20. On November 4, 2011 in Cannes, France, the G-20 leaders will announce their conclusions and agreements after a year and half of intense dialogue and debate. This policy brief summarizes my preliminary rating of the expected results based on the evidence to date: a barely passing grade on substance but an A for effort. Neither final grade is locked in stone, however.
  • Topic: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: France
  • Author: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, Francis Ng
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long. From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations. At most, Doha promised to deliver some security of access for unilateral liberalization previously undertaken by countries and some modest incremental market opening (Martin and Mattoo 2009; Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong 2010). That the Round had much to be modest about was reflected in the failure of even antiglobalization protesters to show up for the more recent meetings of the Doha Round.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Woan Foong Wong
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama stressed four ingredients of American prosperity: faster innovation, better education, less deficit, and more jobs. As the president recognized in his address, the US free enterprise system drives the private sector to innovate, invest, and create jobs. This policy brief concentrates on how reforming the corporate tax system can strengthen the private sector, thereby spurring both innovation and job.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States