1. Why the ECB should cut borrowing costs in periphery
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The European Central Bank has postponed any plans to introduce targeted measures to reduce the cost of borrowing for small and medium-sized businesses in the credit-starved peripheral Eurozone economies. Given the widening gap between the lower costs of borrowing for companies in Germany and France and the higher costs in the periphery, we think that there is a strong case for the ECB to take action. Simulations using our Global Macroeconomic Model show that if half the tightening in credit conditions seen since 2008 were to be reversed within two years, Eurozone GDP would be 0.7% higher by the end of 2017 than under our baseline forecast. There would be over 400,000 fewer people unemployed. This would be particularly beneficial for peripheral Eurozone risk assets.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany