Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: Oxford Analytica / Topic: International Trade and Finance

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
Topic:: Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Russia's military operations in the North Caucasus have, so far, received broad domestic support and enhanced the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to the 1994-96 conflict. The difference can be explained by the successful characterisation of the enemy as terrorists combined with the low level of conscript casualties. Moscow politicians have united broadly behind the military strategy, with opposition limited to extreme reformist groups. Two key consequences emerge from this situation. Firstly, Putin's political future is tied to the continued success of the campaign. Secondly, the nationalist fervour sparked by the conflict has reduced international investor confidence and led to domestic calls for increased defence spending.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and Caucasus

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The attractions of the single european currency are likely to draw the Scandinavian countries into the euro-area by around 2003. However, the outlook for United Kingdom accession is complicated by differences in its economic profile compared with the rest of the euro-area, combined with its enduringly euro-sceptical public opinion. These factors are likely to postpone its accession until later in the decade.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and Moscow

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