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Begin New Search Topic Terrorism Political Geography United States Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Oxford Analytica

1. Middle East/Afghanistan — Al-Qaida Threat

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

2. Prospects 2002 — Euro-Area Economy

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece focuses on the economic prospects for the euro-area in 2002. The euro-area economy has shown increasing signs of cyclical weakness since the beginning of 2001. These signs, compounded by the effects of accelerated decline in the United States since the September 11 terrorist attacks, indicate continuing stagnation into 2002 and growing difficulties for states to maintain their fiscal positions. SGP requirements are reducing the fiscal room for manoeuvre of euro-area states to respond to the current economic downturn. The absence of concerted intervention represents a considerable risk, particularly if global demand fails to pick up in 2002.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

3. Middle East — Bin Laden Prognosis

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the prospects for the al-Qaida group and Osama bin Laden's wider terrorist network following the fall of the Taliban and the loss of many of its facilities in Afghanistan. Key elements of bin Laden's network have been seriously damaged. Some operational cells are likely to survive but most are likely to remain inactive for the foreseeable future in order to avoid detection. Al-Qaida is likely to remain active but less effective than hitherto. As long as the reasons for bin Laden's appeal to certain Islamist constituencies remains, new cells and entirely new groups will be formed within migrant communities and among those engaged in regional conflicts around the world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

4. United STates — Anti-Terrorism Foreign Aid

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This piece focuses on The changing nature of US foreign assistance priorities in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. There will be broad support for a rapid expansion of foreign aid designed to counter the terrorism threat and to support key coalition partners. Whether that support is sustainable in the future depends, at least in part, on the programme's success in enhancing US 'homeland security'. If the anti-terrorism foreign aid programme is shown to serve US interests, help erode poverty, promote democracy and stabilise the political positions of coalition partners, public opinion may in future support more robust programmes. However, if a large portion of assistance is mismanaged or abused, and/or accountability and impact are marginal, enthusiasm for foreign aid is likely to be undermined still further.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

5. International — OPEC Meets

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

6. United States — Fiscal Fallout

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The president this week signed into law a 40 billion dollar emergency appropriations package in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks. The package forms part of considerable planned spending increases, which in combination with expected tax cuts, will result in the country's fiscal position deteriorating significantly. This will have important implications for Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and long-term global interest rates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

7. United States — Terrorist Aftermath

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The World Trade Center's twin towers in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington were on Tuesday subjected to devastating terrorist attacks. The atrocities will prompt a wide-ranging review of US security and intelligence systems which, on Tuesday's evidence, failed spectacularly.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States