Search

Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution International Crisis Group Publication Year within 25 Years

41. Syria's Phase of Radicalisation

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the 10 April deadline Kofi Annan (the UN and Arab League joint Special Envoy) set for implementation of his peace plan strikes , the conflict ' s dynamics have taken an ugly and worrying turn. Syrians from all walks of life appear dumbfounded by the horrific levels of violence and hatred generated by the crisis. Regime forces have subjected entire neighbourhoods to intense bombardment, purportedly to crush armed opposition groups yet with no regard for civilians. Within the largest cities, innocent lives have been lost due to massive bomb attacks in the vicinity of key security installations. Perhaps most sickening of all have been pictures displaying the massacre of whole families, including the shattered skulls of young children. The first anniversary of what began as a predominantly peaceful protest movement came and went with only scattered popular demonstrations. Instead, there was immeasurable bloodshed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria

42. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

43. Liberia: Time for Much-Delayed Reconciliation and Reform

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite marked improvements, numerous grievances that plunged Liberia into bloody wars from 1989 until President Charles Taylor left in August 2003 (originally for exile in Nigeria) remain evident: a polarised society and political system; corruption, nepotism and impunity; a dishevelled security sector; youth unemployment; and gaps and inconsistencies in the electoral law. The November 2011 election was the country's second successful postwar voting exercise but exposed its deep fault lines. The re-elected president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, needs to use her relatively weak mandate to focus on reconciling a divided nation.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Poverty, Natural Resources, Fragile/Failed State, Youth Culture, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa

44. Ethiopia After Meles

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing of the man who has been Ethiopia's epicentre for 21 years will have profound national and regional consequences. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression to quell growing dissent. His successor will lead a weaker regime that struggles to manage increasing unrest unless it truly implements ethnic federalism and institutes fundamental governance reform. The international community should seek to influence the transition actively because it has a major interest in the country's stability.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

45. Mali : pour une action internationale résolue et concertée

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En l'absence de décisions rapides, fortes et cohérentes aux niveaux régional (Communauté économique des Etats d'Afrique de l'Ouest, Cedeao), continental (Union Africaine, UA) et international (Nations unies) avant la fin de ce mois de septembre, la situation politique, sécuritaire, économique et sociale au Mali se détériorera. Tous les scénarios sont encore ouverts, y compris celui d'un nouveau coup d'Etat militaire et de troubles sociaux dans la capitale, aboutissant à une remise en cause des institutions de transition et à un chaos propice à la propagation de l'extrémisme religieux et de la violence terroriste au Mali et au- delà. Aucun des trois acteurs qui se partagent le pouvoir, le président intérimaire Di oncounda Traoré, le Premier ministre Cheick Modibo Diarra et le chef de l'exjunte, le capitaine Amadou Sanogo, ne dispose d'une légitimité populaire et d'une compétence suffisantes pour éviter une crise plus aiguë. Le pays a urgemment besoin de la mobilisation des meilleures compétences maliennes au-delà des clivages politiques et non d'une bataille de positionnement à la tête d'un Etat qui risque de s'écrouler.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa

46. L'Est du Congo: pourquoi la stabilisation a échoué

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis la mutinerie de Bosco Ntaganda en avril 2012 et la formation du Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), les Kivus sont en proie à une nouvelle spirale de violence. Cette crise révèle que les problèmes d'aujourd'hui sont les problèmes d'hier car le cadre de résolution du conflit défini en 2008 n'a pas été mis en oeuvre. L'application de l'accord du 23 mars 2009 entre le gouvernement et le Conseil national pour la défense du peuple (CNDP) a été un jeu de dupes au cours duquel les autorités congolaises ont fait semblant d'intégrer politiquement le CNDP tandis que celui-ci a fait semblant d'intégrer l'armée congolaise. Faute de réforme de cette dernière, la pression militaire sur les groupes armés n'a eu qu'un impact éphémère et la reconstruction post-conflit n'a pas été accompagnée des réformes de gouvernance et du dialogue politique indispensables. Pour sortir de la gestion de crise et résoudre ce conflit qui dure depuis presque deux décennies dans les Kivus, les bailleurs doivent exercer des pressions sur Kigali et Kinshasa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

47. Post-quake Haiti: Security Depends on Resettlement and Development

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A year and a half after the Western Hemisphere's deadliest earthquake devastated Haiti, 650,000 victims still wait for permanent housing in more than 1,000 unstable emergency camps dotting Port-au-Prince. The first storms of the 2011 hurricane season have flooded 30 camps, forcing tent dwellers to flee and killing 28 persons nationally. Michel Martelly, who replaced René Préval as president on 14 May, faces an immediate crisis in the growing frustrations of the victims in the camps and those with near identical unmet basic needs who remain in the urban slums. Forced evictions, some violent, along with the reappearance of criminal gangs in those camps and slums, add to the volatile mix. Adopting, communicating and setting in motion a comprehensive resettlement strategy, with full input from the victims and local communities, is the first critical reconstruction challenge he must meet in order to restore stability. It will also test the capacity for common international action beyond emergency relief after a year of disturbing divisions within the UN country team and among donors over resettlement strategy.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Economics, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
United Nations and Caribbean

48. Turkey and Greece: Time to Settle the Aegean Dispute

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Normalisation between Greece and Turkey has come far since tensions in the Aegean Sea threatened war three times between the NATO allies. Trade, investments and mutual cooperation and tourism have taken off, sidelining issues like the Cyprus problem, which first stirred up the Aegean dispute in the early 1970s. Frequent bilateral talks and Turkey's unofficial 2011 suspension of military over-flights of Greek islands suggest that the time may be ripe for a solution to that dispute. Turkey's strong new government elected in June is interested in further asserting itself as a responsible regional power, solving problems in its neighbourhood and clearing obstacles to its European Union (EU) accession. With Athens in the midst of a financial crisis and needing any economic lift and increased security it can find, this unnecessary and still potentially dangerous conflict should be resolved. A good strategy would be a synchronised set of steps to prepare public opinion on both sides, leading to a bilateral agreement and including, if needed, eventual re- course to international adjudication.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

49. The Philippines: A New Strategy for Peace in Mindanao?

Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Philippine government is experimenting with a creative but risky strategy to bring peace to Mindanao. It has three goals: demonstrate that good governance in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is possible through a two-year reform program; bring separate discussions with two insurgencies, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the much larger, better-armed Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) together; and hammer out the territory and powers of a future Moro “sub-state” in peace talks with the MILF. Until now, the government has not made clear how the three components fit together, but it may reveal its hand – at least in part – in mid-August 2011, when it is widely expected to present a new proposal to the MILF. After President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III took office in June 2010, he said that resolving the conflict in Mindanao was a priority, and the current occupants of the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP) are determined to find the formula for peace that eluded their predecessors. The idea of “convergence” is the result.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

50. Indonesia: Hope and Hard Reality in Papua

Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The conflict in Indonesian Papua continues to defy solution, but some new ideas are on the table. A spike in violence in July and August 2011 underscores the urgency of exploring them. The government of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono should move quickly to set up a long-delayed new Papua unit with a mandate that includes political issues. That unit should look at a set of political, social, economic, legal and security indicators produced in July by a Papua Peace Conference that could become a framework for more enlightened policies. Taken together, they represent a vision of what a peaceful Papua would look like. The conference participants who drafted them, however, were almost all from Papuan civil society. For any real change to take place, there needs to be buy-in not just from Jakarta but from the increasingly large constituency of Papuan elected officials who have influence and resources at a local level.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Peace Studies, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Papua

51. Keeping Haiti Safe: Police Reform

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Haiti's porous land and sea borders remain susceptible to drug trafficking, smuggling and other illegal activities that weaken the rule of law and deprive the state of vital revenue. Post-quake insecurity underscores continued vulnerability to violent crime and political instability. Overcrowded urban slums, plagued by deep poverty, limited economic opportunities and the weakness of government institutions, particularly the Haitian National Police (HNP), breed armed groups and remain a source of broader instability. If the Martelly administration is to guarantee citizen safety successfully, it must remove tainted officers and expand the HNP's institutional and operational capacity across the country by completing a reform that incorporates community policing and violence reduction programs.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Crime, and Natural Disasters

52. Indonesia: Debate Over a New Intelligence Bill

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A controversial bill defining the role and functions of Indonesian intelligence agencies has top priority in the Indonesian parliament. It was originally scheduled for enactment in July 2011 but will now be delayed until September or October. It would be better to put the bill on hold even longer until there is a more comprehensive assessment of security needs and how to address them.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Development, and Intelligence
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

53. Georgia-Russia: Learn to Live Like Neighbours

Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Three years after their August 2008 war over the South Ossetia region, tension is growing again between Russia and Georgia, and talks are needed to restore stability and create positive momentum in a situation that is fragile and potentially explosive. Diplomatic relations are suspended, and the two have only started limited negotiations, with Swiss mediation, on Russia's World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership. Yet, they share interests in improving regional security, trade and transport and should start discussions on these rather than continuing to exchange hostile rhetoric that only makes renewed dialogue more difficult.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Georgia

54. Indonesia: Trouble Again in Ambon

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Clashes on 11 September between Muslims and Christians in Ambon, capital of Maluku province, and sporadic incidents thereafter raised fears of a return to the communal fighting that wracked the region from 1999 to 2002. This time, an extraordinary effort by grassroots “peace provocateurs” and local officials largely kept the violence from spreading further in Maluku. But the unrest triggered efforts by extremists elsewhere to manipulate communal tensions, apparently motivating the bombing of a church in Solo, Central Java on 25 September.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Post Colonialism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

55. Bosnia: What Does Republika Srpska Want?

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Republika Srpska's flirtation in June 2011 with a referendum is a reminder that Bosnia's smaller entity still threatens the stability of the country and the Western Balkans. It is highly unlikely that the RS will secede or that the Bosniaks will attempt to eliminate it, but if its Serb leaders continue driving every conflict with Sarajevo to the brink, as they have done repeatedly to date, they risk disaster. The agility of leaders and the population's patience need only fail once to ignite serious violence. Over the longer term, RS's determination to limit Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to little more than a coordinator between powerful entities may so shrivel the state that it sinks, taking RS with it. RS also suffers from its own internal problems, notably a culture of impunity for political and economic elites and a lingering odour of wartime atrocities. Its leadership, especially its president, Milorad Dodik, needs to compromise with Sarajevo on state building and implement urgent entity-level reforms.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Balkans

56. Keeping Haiti Safe: Justice Reform

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Haiti's justice system remains dysfunctional and continues to pose significant obstacles to its democratic process, security, reconstruction and development. While some steps have begun with regard to the police, institutional reform in the sector has lagged, allowing further impunity and persistent criminal threats to citizen safety. Despite five years of pledges, the majority of Haitians still have limited access to justice, and mistrust of the formal judicial system is widespread. President Michel Martelly and parliament must work in a non-partisan manner to at last produce reform, including by modernising the 174 year- old criminal code and procedures and setting standards for judges, giving the judiciary adequate resources and creating efficient mechanisms that guarantee proper access to justice.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, Poverty, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Caribbean

57. South Korea: The Shifting Sands of Security Policy

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A year after North Korea shelled an island in the South, killing four people, relations on the peninsula remain tense. South Korea has stepped up its warnings of tough retaliation in the case of further attacks and has frozen most political and economic ties. While Pyongyang has made some efforts to restart talks, it has refused to apologise for the attack and has kept up a torrent of abuse against President Lee Myung-bak, who in turn has maintained his tough line. But the political atmosphere in the South is changing as it enters an election season, with the mood shifting towards a more conciliatory position, including renewed interest in a peace zone in the Yellow Sea.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Israel, South Korea, North Korea, and Pyongyang

58. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria

59. Timor-Leste's Veterans: An Unfinished Struggle?

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than ten years after the formation of Timor-Leste's army and the demobilisation of the guerrilla force that fought for independence, the struggle continues about how to pay tribute to the veterans. The increasingly wealthy state has bought off the threat once posed by most dissidents with an expensive cash benefits scheme and succeeded in engaging most veterans' voices in mainstream politics. This approach has created a heavy financial burden and a complicated process of determining who is eligible that will create new tensions even as it resolves others. A greater challenge lies in containing pressures to give them disproportionate political influence and a formal security role. A careful balance will need to be struck between paying homage to heroes while allowing a younger generation of leaders to grow up to replace them. Failure could block the generational transfer of power necessary for the state's long-term stability.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Economics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

60. Brčko Unsupervised

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time to close international supervision of Bosnia's Brčko District. Once seen as a model of post-war reconciliation and good government, it is drowning in corruption and mismanagement that flourished despite its supervisors' best efforts. The territory is vital to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)'s stability: it links the two halves of both Republika Srpska (RS) and the BiH Federation (FBiH), and belongs technically to both entities but is independently governed and multi-ethnic. Many of its former leaders are under suspicion in a corruption probe that may have only scratched the surface; several high profile development projects are collapsing in bankruptcy and litigation. RS has a strong influence on the district but is not threatening to undermine its status. Nevertheless, the international community should ensure that Serb leaders of that entity are left in no doubt that any move to take Brčko over would meet a strong reaction. Stability is now dependent on whether local politicians, law enforcement and the judiciary can take responsibility. International supervision is no longer helping, and a new strategy is needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans